6-6-16: The Designated Day of the Climate Tipping Point

Will that 400PPM CO2 wilt my Banana tree?

Will that 400PPM CO2 threshold wilt my Banana tree?

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Good news – we’re finally about to hit a tipping point. The only problem is, nobody will be able to tell the difference.

Climate change ‘tipping point’ could be reached in four weeks

6.6.16 is almost the devil’s number, but it might be much more than that if a leading scientist’s prediction on climate change is correct.

CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6 (“plus or minus a week”) as the day when carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will hit the point of no return, 400 parts per million (ppm).

The atmospheric measuring station at Cape Grim in Tasmania has recorded the current C02 levels in the atmosphere at 399.9ppm.

Dr Fraser said the difference between 399 and 400ppm was trivial, but when it does hit 400ppm mark it would be a “psychological tipping point”.

“Once it reaches 400ppm at Cape Grim it’s very unlikely to drop below 400 again,” Dr Fraser told ninemsn.

Cape Grim’s stable environment offers a clearer forecast for the world’s climate change.

“When you get away from the cities and into the background air, that’s the one that really drives climate change, that’s in terms of representing the entire globe,” Dr Fraser said.

To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2.

At the higher end of the scale, a smoggy day in the densely polluted cities of Beijing or Shanghai could see carbon figures as high as 600ppm to 700ppm.

When 400ppm becomes the norm in country air, the cities will feel the pain a whole lot more.

Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/12/17/05/carbon-and-climate-change-levels-to-hit-critical-point-at-tasmania-research-station

The part the authors leave out, with all this talk of “cities in pain”, is that 400ppm CO2 will have no noticeable health impact on people. According to US government documents, navy personnel in charge of US submarines, including nuclear submarines charged with delivering the final response to a nuclear first strike, typically live for months on end at an average CO2 level of 3500ppm, ranging up to 11,300ppm. If 400ppm had any health impact whatsoever – how could sick people be trusted to be in charge of nuclear weapons, at CO2 levels an order of magnitude higher than normal air?

I know its easy to poke fun at climate scientists, for their endlessly embarrassing pronouncements of impending doom which never manifest, but at least the scientists who make such outrageously wrong predictions show real commitment to their ideas. Calling this non event a “tipping point” trivialises the drama of all those other efforts to entertain us.

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Marcus

..The only “tipping Point” that will happen anytime soon will be when President Trump cleans house at NASA, NOAA…etc……Then America can get back to REAL science…

Jeff Mitchell

I thought the tipping point was at the end of the meal when you leave a gratuity for the server.

Jon

In climate ‘science’ they get the.money before they provide a result (just in case there is none)

rogerthesurf

Nah isn’t it the same as the date of “Peak Oil”? Could that explain why oil prices have dropped recently? 😉
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com

CO2 is plant food and and in long ago ages they had higher CO2 and plants and fauna did very well.

commieBob

The POTUS does not act as a dictator. It is necessary to get the cooperation of the other branches of the government.
Some folks have made have made comparisons between The Donald and the former mayor of Toronto, Rob Ford. He got smacked down pretty hard by city council when he got too extreme.
Another comparison would be with Brazil’s president, Dilma Roussef. She went after corruption and the corrupt turned around and impeached* her.
Mr. Trump will not have carte blanche and he knows it. Get ready to be disappointed.
(* I realize that she’s not convicted yet but she does have to step down until then.)

ken h

“The POTUS does not act as a dictator.”
Of course he does…he simply issues another Executive Order to bypass Congress.

skorrent1

The Donald may not be able to “fire” excess and unwanted “Civil Servants” (How did they ever get that name? They are both uncivil and act like masters.) but he could round them up and give them nothing to do— and dare Congress to keep funding them.

commieBob

Perhaps we can use sunspots to predict the chances of a Trump victory.
Alexander Chizhevsky did work correlating sunspots with revolutionary activity. Here’s similar work.
What does it mean? I have no clue.

Menicholas

The Dust Bowl called…they want their hottest year evah awards back!

Andrew D Burnette

Right. President Trump is going to clean house. Okay. My guess is he will send someone else to “clean house,” and their last name will be hispanic. And they won’t be worried about scientists.

hornblower

Please save the political comments for another site. One make think AGW is exaggerated without favoring either candidate. There are many issues up for debate in this or any election. Climate theories are only one.

bill johnston

Exactly.

One set of climate theories calls for coercion. There’s that.

Mark

Dont we exhale 40.000ppm with every breath lol

Robert of Ottawa

Ah, the continental 40,000. I had to think about that one :^)

Human’s Baseline Annual CO2 Emission

[T]he low end of the CO2 exhaled per person (.23 ton/yr), which equals over a billion and a half tons of CO2 (1,682,834,489.85).

noaaprogrammer

Yikes! – A global population of 7 x 10^9 people giving off .23 ton/yr. – (not to speak of all the flatulent methane) – and add to that: all the other living creatures giving off their waste products – why did God burden poor Gaia with all of this when it could have been a pristine moonscape?

BFL

Maybe that’s why it takes ~40,000 ppm to be fatal. In addition, inside houses/buildings, is routinely ~1000-1500 ppm so the remark “To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2” as if disaster is upon one by standing beside a rode, is ludicrous. As for the “smog” it’s sulfur & nitrogen oxides that cause the problems, not CO2.

Pauly

BFL, those numbers are not correct. Human exhaled breath usually has a CO2 concentration of around 6% – that is 60,000ppm. That level is still perfectly useful for CPR.
For humans, CO2 toxicity starts above 7%, ie above 70,000ppm. Loss of consciousness occurrs in 10-15 minutes at concentrations of around 10%, and any concentrations above 15% are usually lethal. Yep, that 150,000ppm.
So, if I can act like an alarmist climate scientist for a few seconds, extrapolating our current rate of CO2 increase (1958: 315ppm; 2016: 400ppm) at a linear trend of 1.46ppm/year, we will all start feeling the effects of CO2 toxicity in approximately 47,491 years.
As Elmer Fudd would say, “Be scared. Be very scared!”

commieBob

Pauly says: May 14, 2016 at 3:10 pm
… As Elmer Fudd would say, “Be scared. Be very scared!”

He would not say that. He would say, “Be afwaid, be vewy afwaid.” link

Beijing’s more disturbing factor is the spittle to sidewalk ratio. Watch your step!

WBWilson

I’ve measured 25,000 ppm in my car with the ac on recirculate…..

Peter

Careful, with that much CO2, the heat of your engine will hide in the bottom of the window washer bottle

David Smith

Peter – you’ve just covered my phone screen with beer.

Peter – +1000
I just put my cup down, so no damage done to the hardware. You did make me laugh though – Best comment of the day IMHO. Thank you. 🙂

Oops! That dash is a dash, not a minus sign! 🙂

That’s 3 reasons to celebrate on 6th June then – the anniversary of D-Day, my birthday, and more plant food in the air and so less famine in the world.
Excellent!

TRM

Happy birthday in advance.

Thanks 🙂

South River Independent

And my 47th anniversary.

That’s odd that you would get married onsoarergtl’s birthday.

MangoChutney

unless onsoarergtl is 47 on 6th june!

Congratulations. I’ll raise a glass to you & yours on my birthday. I’m happy to share. 🙂

John Harmsworth

My birthday I June 7. Good bye cruel world!

All PR and the message is Always centered on Fear/Doom when striving to attain your bite of the Gov’t apple (funds).

Robert

Isn’t it close to the day when CSIRO are sacking hundreds of scientists ?

AP

It’s not based on real science. It’s a “psychological tipping point”. One hopes these people psychologically tip themselves into a more useful occupation.
NASA showed las year that this idea of a uniform “background” level of CO2 is complete bunkum.
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/mainco2mappia18934.jpg

Ian Macdonald

Definitely an inconvenient truth, and the interesting thing is that the OCO-2 project has more or less fallen silent since publishing this.

nudist

…and interestingly Tasmania shows as light green which I’m guessing looks to be close to 395 ppm. The tipping point of 400 ppm should be rather red. At that rate they’ll be ultra-violet by Christmas.

Sal Minella

Looks pretty uniform to me. The variation, over land, is about is about 4 ppm – around 1%.

Michael J. Dunn

It appears that the Hawaiian Islands are in the light aqua zone across the Pacific Ocean, nominally at 400 ppm, where Mauna Loa is located. Could we be “there” already? (*gasp* “Horrors!”).
Perhaps we need a bumper sticker along the lines of “Climate No-Change for 20 years.” Then the observant ones would come up and say beligerantly “Hey, that sticker is wrong. It’s only 19 years.” To which we might answer, “And your point is…?”

Robert Clemenzi
TRM

“Once it reaches 400ppm at Cape Grim it’s very unlikely to drop below 400 again,” Dr Fraser told ninemsn.
I guess they don’t have seasons at Cape Grim. The Hawaii monitor clearly shows seasonal drops.

Mark

His tipping point must refer to increasing temperature, not CO2 content.
CO2 was 7000ppm in the past and no tipping point lol

John Harmsworth

Not true! It tipped over and dove to 280ppm

” … they don’t have seasons at Cape Grim … ”
They don’t seem to bother with diurnal variation either. Ok there won’t be much of a surge through land-based photosynthesis shutting down, as there isn’t much there apart from grass. The oco2 (satellite) stuff doesn’t show much seasonal variation either. Seems to indicate that the process might be largely natural, but they won’t see it that way.
As I’ve said before, anyone who has a few dollars to spare and wants to do their own co2 monitoring can get a better perspective, eg 400+ occurs at my place (19°S) every day by about 7pm, max 425-450 at 9pm, back to about 380 at sunrise.
Single car going past upwind at 6m distance – no change
10 tonne diesel truck idling upwind at 6m distance – +20
AGW fanatic spluttering furiously 1 metre from co2 meter – +25
Living room AC switched from “cool” “medium fan”, 440, to “auto” (eg autumn setting) 550
Kitchen usually minimum 800
Two guys engaged in capillary pipe jointing in a confined space – 2500

Mark

Claiming a tipping point reveals a clear case, that they do not know what they are talking about.
A small change in the water cycle can negate all of the warming ever caused by any CO2 in the last 150 years.
It’s clear Dr Paul Fraser is an academic hack, an idiot.

Had it not occurred to anyone else? If ever there was an iron clad justification for getting rid of these climate astrologers at the CSIRO it is this kind of dogmatic superstitious nonsense.
Worse than that, “Dr.”
Fraser must realise that his prognostications are absolute drivel. That means that it is blatant propaganda.

The worst part of life on a submarine are the methane releases from the crew.

SMC

Nah. We used to have contests on whose fart smelled the worst.

James Francisco

Some of the fellows I worked with in the USAF around 1972 had a similar contest but with four catagories.
1. Aroma
2. Tonal quality
3. loudness
4. Duration
Same fellow won all catagories at one event.

lee

But it is a FAIL if you follow through.

Ian L. McQueen

It’s unfortunate that methane is odorless. Farts are malodorous because of sulfur compounds.
Ian M

SMC

Did you have to take the fun out of it…sheesh 🙂

Flyover Bob

Party Pooper!

SMC

Every party needs its pooper.

Pat Frank

The major stink element is skatole.
The smell of that chemical is memorable.
Once, some grad students of my acquaintance left a crystal of skatole in a corner of their advisor’s office. It sublimed away and stank the place up.
Since the crystal couldn’t be removed, the good prof. made these guys wash down his entire office — walls, floor, ceiling, book shelves, everything — with dilute hydrochloric acid. A good time was had by all.

stan stendera

But you can light methane. I wish I had a video. Wouldn’t even get snipped because you can even light up through clothes. On second thought, I just might get snipped.. .

And yet the galley regularly serves three-bean salad.

Mark

Here are some “tipping points”. Pseudo science.
https://www.edf.org/blog/2015/05/28/6-climate-tipping-points-how-worried-should-we-be
The above link contains lies aplenty

Greg Woods

There are tipping points and then there are Tipping Points – but we are all waiting the Mother of All Tipping Points, which may, if not might or possibly, happen any day now or in the future….

Andy Espersen

Considering tipping points – if you really think about it here may indeed be “tipping points” in climate : The enormously sudden changes we have seen during the last 2 million years between the cycles of the ice ages are real. There may inded be some (as yet unknown) factor which makes the climate switch between warm and cold periods.
The trouble is that as we now are in a warm period the next sudden change will of course switch us to the ice age. Perhaps reaching 403.67 parts per million of CO2 will be that decisive point!! That would be fun.

MangoChutney

talking og tipplng points, i’m off to the pub – opps I thought you said tippling points

John Harmsworth

It’s a psychological tipping point. I hit one when I started reading about this AGW nonsense!

Bruce Cobb

While the carbonophobic life-hating ideologues whinge, cry doom, and go on a hand-wringing binge, sane, rational people will rejoice along with plants and all life on earth that life-giving CO2, which was at dangerously-low levels for so long is finally getting back to where it needs to be for life to flourish.
400 ppm! Woo hoo!

Marcus

If liberal claims of CAGW causing massive new storms and ” unprecedented ” sea level rise, do you really believe the Chinese would build man-made island only 10 feet above sea level ? Do liberals really think the Chinese are idiots ? And why is the Liberal Green world not screaming at the top of their lungs about the total destruction of these reefs that is happening TODAY, not 100 years from now ? I am not an “Eco-Freak”, but even I find this blatant destruction appalling.. So many questions, so few answers !

SMC

Ah, the Chinese example is the ideal to which we must aspire to… according to the most ardent of the CAGW faithful.

Flyover Bob

The Chinese are not idiots, they are Communists! They will do just fine like the USSR.

Ray Boorman

Yes, Marcus, I wonder about that too. The green activists here in Australia have not even whispered “boo” about what is happening in the Sth China Sea – but they have plenty to say about the purely natural, & regular, coral bleaching that occurs on our reefs.

katydid

Because it isn’t about the environment?
Did they insist we capture, try and execute the worst environmental terrorist in history – Saddam Hussein?
I don’t recall any cries for retribution for his crimes – but they sure went after Exxon and Hazelwood didn’t they?

John Harmsworth

Hallelujah! Just watch the Chinese. They are happy to build coal fired power plants and nod sagely while we wail about AGW while they scoop up our industry. They have 200 million people in coastal cities that they are still building. The difference is the absence of loony environmentalists.

The Chinese States have engaged in plenty of dumb enterprises over the years. Whether calculating that seizing territory and resources in the short term outweighs potential loss of capital to carry that out through some unknown future sea level state may or may not be one of them, irrespective of whether the State actors are actually believing the AGW predictions or not.

the great thing about tipping points is that once you get there the future is decided. there is nothing you can do to change that. so just go into red meat and wine and fossil fuel emissions overdrive and have fun. we’re toast anyway.

dudleyhorscroft

Why Cape Grim?
Did not Mauna Loa hit 400 ppm a few years ago? So what does Mauna Loa get up to now? Or has the CO2 level stopped rising there?
And why should 400 ppm be a tipping point? With, as I understand it – I may be, and probably am, wrong – the section of the spectrum where CO2 absorbs infra red radiated from the earth’s surface is pretty well saturated, and the only new absorption is in the regions either side where hotter or cooler infra red can be absorbed where the atmosphere may be warming. And on the edges there is not much room for more absorption as the earth is not hot enough or cold enough to radiate in the right frequency.
So in effect the CO2 in the atmosphere could continue to rise, and rise, and the temperature would hardly move. Somebody has remarked on the curve being an exponential or a log curve – if so, which, and what is the rate of change of temperature against increase of CO2 known to be at the current level? Is this by calculation based on theory, or by experiment at different levels of CO2 in a test rig?
We ( that means me!) really do need a proper scientific explanation of the physics of this, such that we (I!) could then explain it to others.

gringojay

Mauna Loa , elevation 3,400meters, on 13 May 2016 CO2 average = 407.8 ppm. From http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html … “Last Month” entry is where see previous day’s average & hourly plot using UTC time.

Jon

Is just beside a volcano really the best place to measure the world’s CO2?

Jon

Why not measure the world’s temperature instead?

stan stendera

Hang around WUWT and you will get the needed information!

Jeff L

Of course, the average Joe will say – “Well, if we have hit a point of no return , then who cares – let’s go on with business as usual as there is nothing we can do about it”.
The author clearly doesn’t realize how self-defeating his article is to his “cause”.

Yes! That’s my response, too. If we’re past the tipping point, then who cares?
Note that is says it’s a “psychological tipping point”, not real, scientific, factual one.

csanborn

It’s like one of Obama’s “new red lines” that you’d better not cross, else he will draw a new red line you’d better not cross. So the CO2 tipping point now is 400 PPM, and the new one, sometime in the glorious future if lucky, may be 500 PPM, and like Obama red lines, have no effect.

Flyover Bob

Since it’s a “psychological tipping point”, does that mean all of the climate quakes are certifiably insane?

PiperPaul

Ahhh, yes. The old “I-reject-reality-and-substitute-my-own” people who wish to have government compel others to follow their orders. We have to find a way to identify this type of people early and keep them away from the rest of society.

I still wonder what the attraction is for dread predictions. The climate is going straight to Hell–send money! Paul Ehrlich was, after all, a best-selling writer.

Jon

It’s the same mental pattern behind Christian gloom and doom. Flood famine fire and pestilence (plague) and war too of course. For some reason it strikes a resonant chord in the Westen psyche, removing reason and compelling fear and panic. It’s interesting that non-westerners don’t have the same pathology.
Why?
Who knows?

Sigh, for years I’ve been looking for exactly what tips over. It’s obvious what tips when you push the handle on a spring loaded toggle switch past its tipping point, but no one seems able to describe what tips in the climate.
Besides, I thought we passed the tipping point at Hansen’s 350 ppm. Is Dr. Fraser saying Hansen and everyone at 350.org are wrong?

gnomish

wasn’t it guam?

Heh – took me a second. Okay, let’s make that be the tipping point.

Javert Chip

gnomish
+1.
For those who wish to relive this golden moment…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs23CjIWMgA

Paul of Alexandria

Presumably when the climate goes into irreversible, exponential ride and we turn into Venus. Unless, of course, the Earth tips from the current interglacial to the next glaciation.

stan stendera

Guam tips over.

stan stendera

Drat, beat me to it.

PaulH

CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6 (“plus or minus a week”) as the day…
At least he provided a margin of error, something sorely lacking in their previous predictions. It’s a start, anyway.
/snark

Since this all about climate change, and it is May, it is currently 39 F. It must be global warming because Tuesday is a forecast for snow. I just want to know when we will start seeing an earlier arrival of spring and a later arrival of winter.? Twelve years ago, we could sleep with windows open in May and some nights in April. Now because of climate change, the heartbreaking images of heaters running all over the city. I know national headlines ” Winters Last Hurrah !” . (Is a sarc necessary here) tipping point indeed! Snow was suppose to be a thing of the past let alone in late May.

Letting us know where here is would greatly improve our understanding.

emsnews

‘Here’ is probably like where I am in upstate NY: bitter cold spring and it is going to snow in two days.

Colorado at the moment.

Not that unusual, except that is becoming the norm. If it was one event, it could be considered, it happens. The high temperatures are different too. They come later in the day and don’t stay there very long. …. and climate isn’t where you are, that’s just weather. We will have no blueberries this year, that foot of snow we had 2 weeks ago killed off the blooms, along with the other fruit trees. There are anomalies, but if there truly was global warming, this would not be happening. It’s too late in the season.

Billy Liar

Right now (according to NEXRAD) it is snowing in the UP of Michigan and it’s not looking good for the cherries in Traverse City, they’re about to get some snow.

Mike the Morlock

rishrac May 14, 2016 at 10:05 am
Not that unusual, except that is becoming the norm.
It is not just here in the States, Europe seems to have suffered a lot of losses in their berry-grape crops this year.
Agricultural damage due to cold and freezing temperatures up more threatening than 1.5 degrees of alleged warming.
miichael

John Harmsworth

I live in Saskatchewan in Western Canada. About 1 1/2 weeks ago we had a high of 32C. 4 days later we had an overnight low of -1 and snow SW of us. I’ve lived here almost 60 years and this is not really remarkable.

TA

I suppose the author really believes 400ppm is a tipping point. Don’t know what the author bases that on, but he seems convinced.
Just another exaggerated claim pertaining to the CAGW theory.
Alarmists have cried wolf too many times. All you get for your effots now is a lot of skepticism and yawns.

Paul Coppin

97% of climate scientists told him it was so. How could he go against that collected wisdom? (/s really necessary?)

Rainer Bensch

They are off 9.5%. The real poiint is at 438 ppm which is 666(octal). So in about 20 years…

Latitude

I wish someone would overlay these two….just for the hell of it
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_trend_gl.pngcomment image

Latitude

nah db, the 10th scale makes it look like it’s something….

South River Independent

Can we plot the daily high, low, and medium terms at Cape Grim to show the trend there? How about all of the other measurement stations around the globe to eliminate the averaging issue? Seems like looking at changes at specific locations would tell us if the world is getting warmer, where it is getting warmer, and how fast it is warming. Then by comparing other factors at each location we can get a better handle on what might be causing the warming.

South River Independent

Terms = temps

katydid

There are lies, damn lies, statistics – and scaling.

John W. Garrett

See http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISS%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1958%20AndCO2.gif
It’s from Dr. Ole Humlum’s website ( http://www.climate4you.com/ ) where he overlays GISS, RSS, HadCrut and other purported global temperatures against Mauna Loa CO2 levels.
I find it extremely useful.

Shouldn’t you be replotting the CO2 graph from a zero axis to be consistently bogus?
And since when does Fahrenheit start at -40?

Ian Macdonald

Real scientists use degrees Kelvin

Latitude

Guys you’re missing the point….
Graphs that show temps in 1/10th of degrees is useless from a practical sense…even more when they claim accuracy to 1/100th degree..
We can’t “feel” 10th degree…..we can’t even feel 1 degree
That’s why thermometers register on a scale of 10 whole degrees……and most of the time we can’t even feel that
I wish someone would overlay the CO2 graph on to the thermometer graph…
….just to show how ridiculously incredibly over the top stupid this all is….

R. Shearer

Yes, the error is ~ +/- 1C.

Javert Chip

It would really pop in Kelvin

Robert O

Why Cape Grim? Located on the NW tip of Tasmania it receives frontal systems coming unimpeded from S. Argentina. It was part of Woolnorth estate of the Van Diemens Land Co. and part of a land grant during the reign of Queen Victoria.

I know its easy to poke fun at climate scientists, for their endlessly embarrassing pronouncements of impending doom which never manifest, but at least the scientists who make such outrageously wrong predictions show real commitment to their ideas

One problem with various “tipping points” is they are never really described exactly. For example, will this fool says that the cities will “feel the pain” a whole lot more. What the hell does that mean? How much hotter will it be when CO2 is at 500 ppm? It has been much higher than that in the past and life went one.
Another point; the crazies told us early on that warming would occur mainly at night in the lower latitudes and in the day and night in the higher latitudes. That does not sound very scary to me: and is likely the reason we don’t hear that much anymore out of the alarmists.
Think for a moment; if the average temperature of the planet went up 6 degrees, what would that mean? I don’t think it would be anything but good. You can argue that if you want, but I have seen no proof that 6 degrees would be any problem.
And lastly; I have seen no proof that the “sensitivity” of CO2 in not a negative number. All things considered — the CO2 hysteria is one of the most stupid delusions mankind has come up with.

joelobryan

Whatever it is, CO2 CAGW is not a “stupid delusion.” It is a different thing to many different classes/group of people.
For the political class on the Left, with the rent-seeking assistance of like-minded partisan ideological psuedoscientists, CO2 alarmism is a well-crafted, multi-decadal, internationally coordinated, intentional deception.
An Illusion is what it is to the unscientific masses.
For countries like the BRICs, it is the Western 1st World economies cutting their own throats. Why stop them; and better still, enable them, is their leaders attitude.
But most of all, it is a means to a desired end.

Climate scientists with their lanterns held high, looking for that mysterious, elusive tropical hot spot, or deep ocean heating.. surely it must be here, no wait over there! Any day now we can expect the treasured findings of the mighty intrepid climate scientists just going about their normal everyday business as usual, it’s worse than we thought day. Searching the globe, surely climate can’t change where you are. It has to be be someplace else, not where you are. But someday, maybe or could be, it might affect you.

joelobryan

rishrac,
The pseudoscientist class will continue to Karlize the climate data, be it temperature, sea ice, glaciers, ocean pH to keep the deception running as long as possible for their political class masters who control their paycheck and prestige positions.
Thus the elusive, theory-predicted, mid-upper tropospheric tropical hotspot becomes ever more the casualty of surface temp Karlizations, but that finer point is too technical for the masses being Grubered by the Left.
Silencing of vocal dissent is becoming evermore prominent in the CO2 alarmist toolbox as the Karlizations become ever more noticeable, if one bothers to look. Look for the free speech attack to begin extending to blogs like this here WUWT and their blogmasters. Here in the US, the Left is clearly no longer shy about using the police and tax powers of the state as a stick.
My advice to the skeptics, keep your taxes in good order, your financial records organized and secure, and your “nose clean.”

You can never loose for being straight up. I would be wrong, knowing what I know, not to argue against CAGW.
To allow CAGW to go unchecked would wrong. They go on about the millions of potential lives that could be lost due to global warming. I think about the millions that will be lost if there is global cooling. And I do think that global cooling could be an issue.

There are days when I wish we could edit our stupid typos. 🙁

If it helps, we all have ’em.

You do know why spell check was invented? Because most guys can’t spell. Sometimes it does alter/altar the meaning. I herd that sound, it was allowed one.

Coeur de Lion

Looks even less impressive in Kelvin.

Bruce Cobb

And of course, we have the de rigeur Alarmist tactic of conflating actual pollution, like what we would get “hit” with if standing by a road with cars going by, or smoggy cities, with their faux pollution, CO2.

Mark from the Midwest

The average person gets hit with more methane in their own bathroom than they ever expereince away from home, you don’t hear the Greens bring that one up…

Marcus

..so, to sum it all up….Global Warming means less people will be cold ? Oh the horror ! LOL

michael hart

It’s Grim down south.

Greg Woods

Didn’t those folks at that to-do in Paris promise that if I like my temperature, I can keep my temperature, just like that Barrackk character up north somewheres….

Greg Woods

I just figured it out: 6-6-16 is a formula for a fertilizer mix, and the 16 is for the percentage of BS.

Pamela Gray

So in other words, these Ivory tower climate scientists are saying that when CO2 is low humans prosper and when CO2 is high humans die off. Which paleoarcheologist would agree with that one????

Flyover Bob

It is not required to make sense. These are REAL sicentists we’re talking about here.

Flyover Bob

that was supposed to be scientists, although it may make no difference.

whiten

The bigger problem for these AGW “scientists” is their psychological trauma….that they will not be able to see or experience the ppm decrease in their life time in any way possible even when actually if they really rely in the proper scientific method they could “see” and to a degree “experience” beyond their expiry date and realize that at some point the ppm will drop naturally as it increased naturally……….but that sadly enough will require a departure from their firm and indisputable belief in the AGW and the anthropogenic forcing effect………
It is really a big problem, psychologically, for any scientist when trying to play as a priest and vice versa……
No wonder why quite a few of them behaving like loonies (whole range :)) lately and more often than not……
cheers

Or if the level of co2 levels of at 420 ppm. ( despite the increased use of fossil fuels) OMG what will they do!!?

simple-touriste

Peek ridicule?

Flyover Bob

That’s way off yet.

That’s 190 in hex . Doesn’t sound so special .

Pat Smith

Willis’s analysis on WUWT a few weeks ago stated that, even if ALL the fossil fuels in the world (according to IPCC figures and using the Bern model to calculate re-absorption) were burnt this century, CO2 levels would only rise to between 450 ppm and 650ppm by the end of the century. CO2 levels would begin to fall in the next century (there being no more oil, gas, coal to burn); with a half life of approx 30 years, CO2 should be down below 400 ppm by mid next century, even from the highest levels, never to go up again as a result of man’s actions.

Bubba Cow
phaedo

Everyone should plant a tree in celebration.

Mark from the Midwest

6.6.16 will not be a tipping point. We will be in-transit for the annual visit to the homeland, and I will be resting the ole liver. It will be hard enough keeping up with the tipping with my reprobate cousins in Zurich and Bavaria, not to mention the 3-bottles-of-wine-with-dinner at my wife’s family down in Geneva, (for those of you unfamiliar with the practice, it’s one bottle before, one bottle during, and one bottle after).

Ted beacher

That’s why I live in Geneva, Mark!! The wine practice you describe helps me overlook the fact that my compatriots have drunk the global warming coolaid like the rest of Europe. When I installed a heated jacuzzi, the authorities made it expressly conditional on agreeing to switch to “GREEN” electricity (which is not at all green, just grossly more expensive!!)

John W. Garrett

From Dr. Ole Humlum’s website-
http://www.climate4you.com/
Mauna Loa CO2 v. HadCrut temperatures since 1960:
http://www.climate4you.com/images/HadCRUT4%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1958%20AndCO2.gif
The website contains a wealth of useful climate data.

Janus100

Just saying…

Janus

Duh!
Message, ever so simple, was still garbled .
So again:
“Have you noticed that nobody cares about your post?
Just saying…”
Is it clear now?

Mark

The original data they deleted showed a much steeper cooling curve in the 60s and 70s.
GISS completely wipes it out
on Giss the 1930a 40s warming and the cooling thereafter were both significant. It’s now a flat trend from 1940 to 1978\79
Also NOAA have ice data pre 1979
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PaintImage142.png
and GISS starts their record in 1880, a la nina after the 1877\78 El Nino.
Such cheeky cheaters.

Mark

Nice cherry pick, that Ed Hawkins fancy gif actually highlighted
Start in La Nina and flattens the curve to match CO2 growth (getting rid of the blip Climate gate)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

Mark

Nick Stokes likes starting with La Nina’s and ending at El Ninos too. Must be a thing with these guys lol

Marcus

..Liberals are still trying to create the perfect Human ! Not sure where I stand on this issue..
..Lots of quality input from WUWT readers would be interesting ..Of course, if this is possible, it would destroy the Creationists argument that life cannot come from nothing !
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/05/14/harvards-secret-meeting-on-synthetic-human-genome-fuels-debate.html?intcmp=hpbt3

Mark

Ironically Astrophysicists repeatedly safe life came from nothing when the big bang happened, in fact they say everything came from nothing, see science is not so void of religion as you might think.

Billy Liar

As long as there is the same amount of matter as anti-matter in the universe then it all adds up to exactly nothing.

ferdberple

then it all adds up to exactly nothing.
================
how about mass? are you saying that anti-particles have negative mass? that they weight less than nothing?

Billy Liar

Ferd, nope, after the bright flash there will be nothing (except maybe some neutrinos?).
In particle physics, antimatter is a material composed of antiparticles, which have the same mass as particles of ordinary matter but opposite charges, as well as other particle properties such as lepton and baryon numbers. Collisions between particles and antiparticles lead to the annihilation of both, giving rise to variable proportions of intense photons (gamma rays), neutrinos, and less massive particle–antiparticle pairs. The total consequence of annihilation is a release of energy available for work, proportional to the total matter and antimatter mass, in accord with the mass–energy equivalence equation, E = mc².
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter

Mark

The big bang is creation dude, it was cooked up by a priest “creation out of nothing”

CC Reader

Since I have spent 4yrs of my life underwater on submarines does this mean I can sue the US Government for endangering my life?

Bubba Cow

only if you were denied your preferred bathroom …

Flyover Bob

I am reasonably sure he preferred the one at home.

this tipping point is propaganda – not science – an attempt to create a sense of urgency – however – that could backfire – when the tipping point is exceeded and nothing dramatic happens – it becomes just a number – like turning 40

Steve Fraser

For me, more like the ‘four-minute mile’…

Javert Chip

Well here’s some good news.
The renowned climate scientist, Prince Charles, issued a “100 month tipping point in 2009.
Didn’t happen.
So in 2015 he extended it another 35 years. http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/07/28/prince-charles-gives-world-reprieve-on-global-warming-extends-100-month-tipping-point-to-35-more-years/
This is the kind of thinking that gets you promoted head of state for 90 million people in the 21st century.

dudleyhorscroft

Population of the UK is currently estimated at 65, 061,260 by Worldometers. Though the site does not say if that is as of 1 Jan or today. But it is definitely not 90 million.

1saveenergy

At least the yanks can vote their idiot head of state out, we Brits have ours imposed for life !!

Logoswrench

400ppm is only a psychological tipping point for those who need serious psychological help.

Jon

Exactly, it’s psychological, afflicts those who are more psycho than logical!

Smart Rock

Well that’s it then. The science is settled, the tipping point is here, irreversible warming is on us, and we’re all going to die.
A big thank you to all the dedicated Climate Scientists for your work. You can all go home now and save your governments a load of cash, that they can use for something else. Like health care, education, beefing up defence forces, things that will make our last years on earth more tolerable.

A C Osborn

For a scientist he has not got a clue, houses quite often have rooms up to 2000ppm, most health and safety regs say 5000ppm is a working limit with up to 35000ppm for short periods (15 minutes).
Very sad to think that they are teaching our young.

chris y

I agree.
“The researchers noted that typical carbon dioxide concentrations outside are approximately 380 parts per million, while inside office buildings, the concentrations usually aren’t any higher than 1,000 parts per million. However, in classrooms, researchers found that carbon dioxide concentrations can go be as high as 3,000 parts per million, or more. (Federal occupational exposure guidelines for carbon dioxide concentrations are 5,000 parts per million for eight hours.)”
huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/25/carbon-dioxide-decision-making-meeting-rooms-classrooms_n_2006289.html

With co2 levels so high, shouldn’t there be a greenhouse effect and there would be no need to heat those places? And in a closed area too! Not like an open atmosphere where it could be debatable whether the heat is retained or not.

chris y

This bit from the remarkable Dr. Fraser seems to be confused-
“At the higher end of the scale, a smoggy day in the densely polluted cities of Beijing or Shanghai could see carbon figures as high as 600ppm to 700ppm.”
Everyone who works in an office, school, store, etc. experiences much higher CO2 concentrations every day, even in the cleanest-of-the-clean cities of the world.
CO2 is not carbon.
Smog and CO2 are separate issues. Mashing them up in a sentence is silly.

BobM

Actually, I’m more concerned about Guam. Has Guam reached its tipping point yet? I’d hate to see it “tip over and capsize” from housing too many Marines.

Steve Fraser

403

Marcus

..That comment from a liberal Senator clearly showed that some people should not be allowed to vote !

Javert Chip

It was April 1, 2010, and Congressman Hank Johnson (D-Ga).

Bruce Cobb

We skeptics have known it for years, and now the climageddonists are finally admitting it; their climate fears are all just in their heads! And now, with 400 ppm they have reached their “psychological tipping point”. Their CO2-obsessed irrational fears will now be sending hoards of them into psychiatric treatment and group therapy sessions. It will be a veritable bonanza for the mental health industry.

David Kreutzer

Of course Dr Fraser tries to link CO2 to smoggy days and dense pollution. Totally deceitful.

TonyL

In infrared spectroscopy, there are two common scales commonly used, wavelength in um, and energy in cm-1.
CO2 has a relatively weak weak absorption band at 15 um is officially given as 665 cm-1. It did not take people long to unofficially round that up to 666 cm-1. 666 is the mark of the Beast and therefor CO2 is the molecule of the Beast. (Interesting that the weak line at 666 cm-1 is the one that all the fuss is about)
And now you know.

Akatsukami

In critical editions of the New Testament, it’s noted that some manuscripts have 616 as the Number of the Beast. 6/6/16 has both variants!

ulriclyons

Irenaeus of Lyons decided on the change, probably because of a previous association of 666 with the Sun and God.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_the_Beast#616

noaaprogrammer

The sum of the first 144 digits of pi is 666.

Scott

Oh noes! We hit an arbitrary number which is significant only due to some quirk of our base digit!. If only we had had the foresight to choose a different arbitrary number then things would have been better…

Bruce Cobb

If only we had just 8 fingers instead of ten, then the psychological breaking point wouldn’t be reached until 620 ppm. Oh well.

Flyover Bob

I see where the error is they counted the thumbs and not just the fingers.

Mike the Morlock

“CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6”
CSIRO,,, hmmm. I recall hearing something about impending “LAYOFF” there.
Is he going on about CO2 and June 6 because that’s when the first of the “pink slips” go out.
I can dream right?
michael

Vince

“To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2.”
Who cares!? If the person standing next to you on the street or wherever exhales in your general direction, you could be hit with 40,000ppm of CO2, so big deal! Sometimes the things people get alarmed about make me laugh.

Leo Smith

They seek it here, They seek it there,
Those Alarmists seek it everywhere.
Is it in the Sky? — Is it in the Sea?
That damned elusive Delta Tee….
For they are dedicated followers of fashion…
(with apologies to Baroness Orczy, and of course, the Kinks)

Pauly

L. O. L. – eh!

Martin Hertzberg

There is only one tipping point involved. It is the point at which the global warmers tip their glasses to their lips so that whatever they drink causes them to hallucinate.