6-6-16: The Designated Day of the Climate Tipping Point

Will that 400PPM CO2 wilt my Banana tree?

Will that 400PPM CO2 threshold wilt my Banana tree?

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Good news – we’re finally about to hit a tipping point. The only problem is, nobody will be able to tell the difference.

Climate change ‘tipping point’ could be reached in four weeks

6.6.16 is almost the devil’s number, but it might be much more than that if a leading scientist’s prediction on climate change is correct.

CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6 (“plus or minus a week”) as the day when carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will hit the point of no return, 400 parts per million (ppm).

The atmospheric measuring station at Cape Grim in Tasmania has recorded the current C02 levels in the atmosphere at 399.9ppm.

Dr Fraser said the difference between 399 and 400ppm was trivial, but when it does hit 400ppm mark it would be a “psychological tipping point”.

“Once it reaches 400ppm at Cape Grim it’s very unlikely to drop below 400 again,” Dr Fraser told ninemsn.

Cape Grim’s stable environment offers a clearer forecast for the world’s climate change.

“When you get away from the cities and into the background air, that’s the one that really drives climate change, that’s in terms of representing the entire globe,” Dr Fraser said.

To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2.

At the higher end of the scale, a smoggy day in the densely polluted cities of Beijing or Shanghai could see carbon figures as high as 600ppm to 700ppm.

When 400ppm becomes the norm in country air, the cities will feel the pain a whole lot more.

Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/12/17/05/carbon-and-climate-change-levels-to-hit-critical-point-at-tasmania-research-station

The part the authors leave out, with all this talk of “cities in pain”, is that 400ppm CO2 will have no noticeable health impact on people. According to US government documents, navy personnel in charge of US submarines, including nuclear submarines charged with delivering the final response to a nuclear first strike, typically live for months on end at an average CO2 level of 3500ppm, ranging up to 11,300ppm. If 400ppm had any health impact whatsoever – how could sick people be trusted to be in charge of nuclear weapons, at CO2 levels an order of magnitude higher than normal air?

I know its easy to poke fun at climate scientists, for their endlessly embarrassing pronouncements of impending doom which never manifest, but at least the scientists who make such outrageously wrong predictions show real commitment to their ideas. Calling this non event a “tipping point” trivialises the drama of all those other efforts to entertain us.

314 thoughts on “6-6-16: The Designated Day of the Climate Tipping Point

  1. ..The only “tipping Point” that will happen anytime soon will be when President Trump cleans house at NASA, NOAA…etc……Then America can get back to REAL science…

    • I thought the tipping point was at the end of the meal when you leave a gratuity for the server.

    • The POTUS does not act as a dictator. It is necessary to get the cooperation of the other branches of the government.
      Some folks have made have made comparisons between The Donald and the former mayor of Toronto, Rob Ford. He got smacked down pretty hard by city council when he got too extreme.
      Another comparison would be with Brazil’s president, Dilma Roussef. She went after corruption and the corrupt turned around and impeached* her.
      Mr. Trump will not have carte blanche and he knows it. Get ready to be disappointed.
      (* I realize that she’s not convicted yet but she does have to step down until then.)

      • “The POTUS does not act as a dictator.”
        Of course he does…he simply issues another Executive Order to bypass Congress.

      • The Donald may not be able to “fire” excess and unwanted “Civil Servants” (How did they ever get that name? They are both uncivil and act like masters.) but he could round them up and give them nothing to do— and dare Congress to keep funding them.

    • Perhaps we can use sunspots to predict the chances of a Trump victory.
      Alexander Chizhevsky did work correlating sunspots with revolutionary activity. Here’s similar work.
      What does it mean? I have no clue.

    • Right. President Trump is going to clean house. Okay. My guess is he will send someone else to “clean house,” and their last name will be hispanic. And they won’t be worried about scientists.

    • Please save the political comments for another site. One make think AGW is exaggerated without favoring either candidate. There are many issues up for debate in this or any election. Climate theories are only one.

      • Yikes! – A global population of 7 x 10^9 people giving off .23 ton/yr. – (not to speak of all the flatulent methane) – and add to that: all the other living creatures giving off their waste products – why did God burden poor Gaia with all of this when it could have been a pristine moonscape?

    • Maybe that’s why it takes ~40,000 ppm to be fatal. In addition, inside houses/buildings, is routinely ~1000-1500 ppm so the remark “To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2” as if disaster is upon one by standing beside a rode, is ludicrous. As for the “smog” it’s sulfur & nitrogen oxides that cause the problems, not CO2.

      • BFL, those numbers are not correct. Human exhaled breath usually has a CO2 concentration of around 6% – that is 60,000ppm. That level is still perfectly useful for CPR.
        For humans, CO2 toxicity starts above 7%, ie above 70,000ppm. Loss of consciousness occurrs in 10-15 minutes at concentrations of around 10%, and any concentrations above 15% are usually lethal. Yep, that 150,000ppm.
        So, if I can act like an alarmist climate scientist for a few seconds, extrapolating our current rate of CO2 increase (1958: 315ppm; 2016: 400ppm) at a linear trend of 1.46ppm/year, we will all start feeling the effects of CO2 toxicity in approximately 47,491 years.
        As Elmer Fudd would say, “Be scared. Be very scared!”

      • Pauly says: May 14, 2016 at 3:10 pm
        … As Elmer Fudd would say, “Be scared. Be very scared!”

        He would not say that. He would say, “Be afwaid, be vewy afwaid.” link

  2. That’s 3 reasons to celebrate on 6th June then – the anniversary of D-Day, my birthday, and more plant food in the air and so less famine in the world.

  3. All PR and the message is Always centered on Fear/Doom when striving to attain your bite of the Gov’t apple (funds).

  4. “Once it reaches 400ppm at Cape Grim it’s very unlikely to drop below 400 again,” Dr Fraser told ninemsn.
    I guess they don’t have seasons at Cape Grim. The Hawaii monitor clearly shows seasonal drops.

    • His tipping point must refer to increasing temperature, not CO2 content.
      CO2 was 7000ppm in the past and no tipping point lol

    • ” … they don’t have seasons at Cape Grim … ”
      They don’t seem to bother with diurnal variation either. Ok there won’t be much of a surge through land-based photosynthesis shutting down, as there isn’t much there apart from grass. The oco2 (satellite) stuff doesn’t show much seasonal variation either. Seems to indicate that the process might be largely natural, but they won’t see it that way.
      As I’ve said before, anyone who has a few dollars to spare and wants to do their own co2 monitoring can get a better perspective, eg 400+ occurs at my place (19°S) every day by about 7pm, max 425-450 at 9pm, back to about 380 at sunrise.
      Single car going past upwind at 6m distance – no change
      10 tonne diesel truck idling upwind at 6m distance – +20
      AGW fanatic spluttering furiously 1 metre from co2 meter – +25
      Living room AC switched from “cool” “medium fan”, 440, to “auto” (eg autumn setting) 550
      Kitchen usually minimum 800
      Two guys engaged in capillary pipe jointing in a confined space – 2500

  5. Claiming a tipping point reveals a clear case, that they do not know what they are talking about.
    A small change in the water cycle can negate all of the warming ever caused by any CO2 in the last 150 years.
    It’s clear Dr Paul Fraser is an academic hack, an idiot.

    • Had it not occurred to anyone else? If ever there was an iron clad justification for getting rid of these climate astrologers at the CSIRO it is this kind of dogmatic superstitious nonsense.
      Worse than that, “Dr.”
      Fraser must realise that his prognostications are absolute drivel. That means that it is blatant propaganda.

      • Some of the fellows I worked with in the USAF around 1972 had a similar contest but with four catagories.
        1. Aroma
        2. Tonal quality
        3. loudness
        4. Duration
        Same fellow won all catagories at one event.

    • It’s unfortunate that methane is odorless. Farts are malodorous because of sulfur compounds.
      Ian M

      • The major stink element is skatole.
        The smell of that chemical is memorable.
        Once, some grad students of my acquaintance left a crystal of skatole in a corner of their advisor’s office. It sublimed away and stank the place up.
        Since the crystal couldn’t be removed, the good prof. made these guys wash down his entire office — walls, floor, ceiling, book shelves, everything — with dilute hydrochloric acid. A good time was had by all.

      • But you can light methane. I wish I had a video. Wouldn’t even get snipped because you can even light up through clothes. On second thought, I just might get snipped.. .

    • There are tipping points and then there are Tipping Points – but we are all waiting the Mother of All Tipping Points, which may, if not might or possibly, happen any day now or in the future….

      • Considering tipping points – if you really think about it here may indeed be “tipping points” in climate : The enormously sudden changes we have seen during the last 2 million years between the cycles of the ice ages are real. There may inded be some (as yet unknown) factor which makes the climate switch between warm and cold periods.
        The trouble is that as we now are in a warm period the next sudden change will of course switch us to the ice age. Perhaps reaching 403.67 parts per million of CO2 will be that decisive point!! That would be fun.

      • talking og tipplng points, i’m off to the pub – opps I thought you said tippling points

    • It’s a psychological tipping point. I hit one when I started reading about this AGW nonsense!

  6. While the carbonophobic life-hating ideologues whinge, cry doom, and go on a hand-wringing binge, sane, rational people will rejoice along with plants and all life on earth that life-giving CO2, which was at dangerously-low levels for so long is finally getting back to where it needs to be for life to flourish.
    400 ppm! Woo hoo!

  7. If liberal claims of CAGW causing massive new storms and ” unprecedented ” sea level rise, do you really believe the Chinese would build man-made island only 10 feet above sea level ? Do liberals really think the Chinese are idiots ? And why is the Liberal Green world not screaming at the top of their lungs about the total destruction of these reefs that is happening TODAY, not 100 years from now ? I am not an “Eco-Freak”, but even I find this blatant destruction appalling.. So many questions, so few answers !

    • Ah, the Chinese example is the ideal to which we must aspire to… according to the most ardent of the CAGW faithful.

    • The Chinese are not idiots, they are Communists! They will do just fine like the USSR.

    • Yes, Marcus, I wonder about that too. The green activists here in Australia have not even whispered “boo” about what is happening in the Sth China Sea – but they have plenty to say about the purely natural, & regular, coral bleaching that occurs on our reefs.

    • Because it isn’t about the environment?
      Did they insist we capture, try and execute the worst environmental terrorist in history – Saddam Hussein?
      I don’t recall any cries for retribution for his crimes – but they sure went after Exxon and Hazelwood didn’t they?

    • Hallelujah! Just watch the Chinese. They are happy to build coal fired power plants and nod sagely while we wail about AGW while they scoop up our industry. They have 200 million people in coastal cities that they are still building. The difference is the absence of loony environmentalists.

    • The Chinese States have engaged in plenty of dumb enterprises over the years. Whether calculating that seizing territory and resources in the short term outweighs potential loss of capital to carry that out through some unknown future sea level state may or may not be one of them, irrespective of whether the State actors are actually believing the AGW predictions or not.

  8. the great thing about tipping points is that once you get there the future is decided. there is nothing you can do to change that. so just go into red meat and wine and fossil fuel emissions overdrive and have fun. we’re toast anyway.

  9. Why Cape Grim?
    Did not Mauna Loa hit 400 ppm a few years ago? So what does Mauna Loa get up to now? Or has the CO2 level stopped rising there?
    And why should 400 ppm be a tipping point? With, as I understand it – I may be, and probably am, wrong – the section of the spectrum where CO2 absorbs infra red radiated from the earth’s surface is pretty well saturated, and the only new absorption is in the regions either side where hotter or cooler infra red can be absorbed where the atmosphere may be warming. And on the edges there is not much room for more absorption as the earth is not hot enough or cold enough to radiate in the right frequency.
    So in effect the CO2 in the atmosphere could continue to rise, and rise, and the temperature would hardly move. Somebody has remarked on the curve being an exponential or a log curve – if so, which, and what is the rate of change of temperature against increase of CO2 known to be at the current level? Is this by calculation based on theory, or by experiment at different levels of CO2 in a test rig?
    We ( that means me!) really do need a proper scientific explanation of the physics of this, such that we (I!) could then explain it to others.

  10. Of course, the average Joe will say – “Well, if we have hit a point of no return , then who cares – let’s go on with business as usual as there is nothing we can do about it”.
    The author clearly doesn’t realize how self-defeating his article is to his “cause”.

    • Yes! That’s my response, too. If we’re past the tipping point, then who cares?
      Note that is says it’s a “psychological tipping point”, not real, scientific, factual one.

      • It’s like one of Obama’s “new red lines” that you’d better not cross, else he will draw a new red line you’d better not cross. So the CO2 tipping point now is 400 PPM, and the new one, sometime in the glorious future if lucky, may be 500 PPM, and like Obama red lines, have no effect.

      • Since it’s a “psychological tipping point”, does that mean all of the climate quakes are certifiably insane?

      • Ahhh, yes. The old “I-reject-reality-and-substitute-my-own” people who wish to have government compel others to follow their orders. We have to find a way to identify this type of people early and keep them away from the rest of society.

  11. I still wonder what the attraction is for dread predictions. The climate is going straight to Hell–send money! Paul Ehrlich was, after all, a best-selling writer.

    • It’s the same mental pattern behind Christian gloom and doom. Flood famine fire and pestilence (plague) and war too of course. For some reason it strikes a resonant chord in the Westen psyche, removing reason and compelling fear and panic. It’s interesting that non-westerners don’t have the same pathology.
      Who knows?

  12. Sigh, for years I’ve been looking for exactly what tips over. It’s obvious what tips when you push the handle on a spring loaded toggle switch past its tipping point, but no one seems able to describe what tips in the climate.
    Besides, I thought we passed the tipping point at Hansen’s 350 ppm. Is Dr. Fraser saying Hansen and everyone at 350.org are wrong?

  13. CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6 (“plus or minus a week”) as the day…
    At least he provided a margin of error, something sorely lacking in their previous predictions. It’s a start, anyway.

  14. Since this all about climate change, and it is May, it is currently 39 F. It must be global warming because Tuesday is a forecast for snow. I just want to know when we will start seeing an earlier arrival of spring and a later arrival of winter.? Twelve years ago, we could sleep with windows open in May and some nights in April. Now because of climate change, the heartbreaking images of heaters running all over the city. I know national headlines ” Winters Last Hurrah !” . (Is a sarc necessary here) tipping point indeed! Snow was suppose to be a thing of the past let alone in late May.

      • ‘Here’ is probably like where I am in upstate NY: bitter cold spring and it is going to snow in two days.

      • Not that unusual, except that is becoming the norm. If it was one event, it could be considered, it happens. The high temperatures are different too. They come later in the day and don’t stay there very long. …. and climate isn’t where you are, that’s just weather. We will have no blueberries this year, that foot of snow we had 2 weeks ago killed off the blooms, along with the other fruit trees. There are anomalies, but if there truly was global warming, this would not be happening. It’s too late in the season.

      • Right now (according to NEXRAD) it is snowing in the UP of Michigan and it’s not looking good for the cherries in Traverse City, they’re about to get some snow.

    • rishrac May 14, 2016 at 10:05 am
      Not that unusual, except that is becoming the norm.
      It is not just here in the States, Europe seems to have suffered a lot of losses in their berry-grape crops this year.
      Agricultural damage due to cold and freezing temperatures up more threatening than 1.5 degrees of alleged warming.

      • I live in Saskatchewan in Western Canada. About 1 1/2 weeks ago we had a high of 32C. 4 days later we had an overnight low of -1 and snow SW of us. I’ve lived here almost 60 years and this is not really remarkable.

  15. I suppose the author really believes 400ppm is a tipping point. Don’t know what the author bases that on, but he seems convinced.
    Just another exaggerated claim pertaining to the CAGW theory.
    Alarmists have cried wolf too many times. All you get for your effots now is a lot of skepticism and yawns.

    • 97% of climate scientists told him it was so. How could he go against that collected wisdom? (/s really necessary?)

    • They are off 9.5%. The real poiint is at 438 ppm which is 666(octal). So in about 20 years…

  16. Why Cape Grim? Located on the NW tip of Tasmania it receives frontal systems coming unimpeded from S. Argentina. It was part of Woolnorth estate of the Van Diemens Land Co. and part of a land grant during the reign of Queen Victoria.

  17. I know its easy to poke fun at climate scientists, for their endlessly embarrassing pronouncements of impending doom which never manifest, but at least the scientists who make such outrageously wrong predictions show real commitment to their ideas

    One problem with various “tipping points” is they are never really described exactly. For example, will this fool says that the cities will “feel the pain” a whole lot more. What the hell does that mean? How much hotter will it be when CO2 is at 500 ppm? It has been much higher than that in the past and life went one.
    Another point; the crazies told us early on that warming would occur mainly at night in the lower latitudes and in the day and night in the higher latitudes. That does not sound very scary to me: and is likely the reason we don’t hear that much anymore out of the alarmists.
    Think for a moment; if the average temperature of the planet went up 6 degrees, what would that mean? I don’t think it would be anything but good. You can argue that if you want, but I have seen no proof that 6 degrees would be any problem.
    And lastly; I have seen no proof that the “sensitivity” of CO2 in not a negative number. All things considered — the CO2 hysteria is one of the most stupid delusions mankind has come up with.

    • Whatever it is, CO2 CAGW is not a “stupid delusion.” It is a different thing to many different classes/group of people.
      For the political class on the Left, with the rent-seeking assistance of like-minded partisan ideological psuedoscientists, CO2 alarmism is a well-crafted, multi-decadal, internationally coordinated, intentional deception.
      An Illusion is what it is to the unscientific masses.
      For countries like the BRICs, it is the Western 1st World economies cutting their own throats. Why stop them; and better still, enable them, is their leaders attitude.
      But most of all, it is a means to a desired end.

      • Climate scientists with their lanterns held high, looking for that mysterious, elusive tropical hot spot, or deep ocean heating.. surely it must be here, no wait over there! Any day now we can expect the treasured findings of the mighty intrepid climate scientists just going about their normal everyday business as usual, it’s worse than we thought day. Searching the globe, surely climate can’t change where you are. It has to be be someplace else, not where you are. But someday, maybe or could be, it might affect you.

      • rishrac,
        The pseudoscientist class will continue to Karlize the climate data, be it temperature, sea ice, glaciers, ocean pH to keep the deception running as long as possible for their political class masters who control their paycheck and prestige positions.
        Thus the elusive, theory-predicted, mid-upper tropospheric tropical hotspot becomes ever more the casualty of surface temp Karlizations, but that finer point is too technical for the masses being Grubered by the Left.
        Silencing of vocal dissent is becoming evermore prominent in the CO2 alarmist toolbox as the Karlizations become ever more noticeable, if one bothers to look. Look for the free speech attack to begin extending to blogs like this here WUWT and their blogmasters. Here in the US, the Left is clearly no longer shy about using the police and tax powers of the state as a stick.
        My advice to the skeptics, keep your taxes in good order, your financial records organized and secure, and your “nose clean.”

      • You can never loose for being straight up. I would be wrong, knowing what I know, not to argue against CAGW.
        To allow CAGW to go unchecked would wrong. They go on about the millions of potential lives that could be lost due to global warming. I think about the millions that will be lost if there is global cooling. And I do think that global cooling could be an issue.

  18. And of course, we have the de rigeur Alarmist tactic of conflating actual pollution, like what we would get “hit” with if standing by a road with cars going by, or smoggy cities, with their faux pollution, CO2.

    • The average person gets hit with more methane in their own bathroom than they ever expereince away from home, you don’t hear the Greens bring that one up…

  19. ..so, to sum it all up….Global Warming means less people will be cold ? Oh the horror ! LOL

  20. Didn’t those folks at that to-do in Paris promise that if I like my temperature, I can keep my temperature, just like that Barrackk character up north somewheres….

    • I just figured it out: 6-6-16 is a formula for a fertilizer mix, and the 16 is for the percentage of BS.

  21. So in other words, these Ivory tower climate scientists are saying that when CO2 is low humans prosper and when CO2 is high humans die off. Which paleoarcheologist would agree with that one????

  22. The bigger problem for these AGW “scientists” is their psychological trauma….that they will not be able to see or experience the ppm decrease in their life time in any way possible even when actually if they really rely in the proper scientific method they could “see” and to a degree “experience” beyond their expiry date and realize that at some point the ppm will drop naturally as it increased naturally……….but that sadly enough will require a departure from their firm and indisputable belief in the AGW and the anthropogenic forcing effect………
    It is really a big problem, psychologically, for any scientist when trying to play as a priest and vice versa……
    No wonder why quite a few of them behaving like loonies (whole range :)) lately and more often than not……

  23. Willis’s analysis on WUWT a few weeks ago stated that, even if ALL the fossil fuels in the world (according to IPCC figures and using the Bern model to calculate re-absorption) were burnt this century, CO2 levels would only rise to between 450 ppm and 650ppm by the end of the century. CO2 levels would begin to fall in the next century (there being no more oil, gas, coal to burn); with a half life of approx 30 years, CO2 should be down below 400 ppm by mid next century, even from the highest levels, never to go up again as a result of man’s actions.

  24. 6.6.16 will not be a tipping point. We will be in-transit for the annual visit to the homeland, and I will be resting the ole liver. It will be hard enough keeping up with the tipping with my reprobate cousins in Zurich and Bavaria, not to mention the 3-bottles-of-wine-with-dinner at my wife’s family down in Geneva, (for those of you unfamiliar with the practice, it’s one bottle before, one bottle during, and one bottle after).

    • That’s why I live in Geneva, Mark!! The wine practice you describe helps me overlook the fact that my compatriots have drunk the global warming coolaid like the rest of Europe. When I installed a heated jacuzzi, the authorities made it expressly conditional on agreeing to switch to “GREEN” electricity (which is not at all green, just grossly more expensive!!)

    • Ironically Astrophysicists repeatedly safe life came from nothing when the big bang happened, in fact they say everything came from nothing, see science is not so void of religion as you might think.

      • As long as there is the same amount of matter as anti-matter in the universe then it all adds up to exactly nothing.

      • then it all adds up to exactly nothing.
        how about mass? are you saying that anti-particles have negative mass? that they weight less than nothing?

      • Ferd, nope, after the bright flash there will be nothing (except maybe some neutrinos?).
        In particle physics, antimatter is a material composed of antiparticles, which have the same mass as particles of ordinary matter but opposite charges, as well as other particle properties such as lepton and baryon numbers. Collisions between particles and antiparticles lead to the annihilation of both, giving rise to variable proportions of intense photons (gamma rays), neutrinos, and less massive particle–antiparticle pairs. The total consequence of annihilation is a release of energy available for work, proportional to the total matter and antimatter mass, in accord with the mass–energy equivalence equation, E = mc².

    • The big bang is creation dude, it was cooked up by a priest “creation out of nothing”

  25. Since I have spent 4yrs of my life underwater on submarines does this mean I can sue the US Government for endangering my life?

  26. this tipping point is propaganda – not science – an attempt to create a sense of urgency – however – that could backfire – when the tipping point is exceeded and nothing dramatic happens – it becomes just a number – like turning 40

  27. 400ppm is only a psychological tipping point for those who need serious psychological help.

  28. Well that’s it then. The science is settled, the tipping point is here, irreversible warming is on us, and we’re all going to die.
    A big thank you to all the dedicated Climate Scientists for your work. You can all go home now and save your governments a load of cash, that they can use for something else. Like health care, education, beefing up defence forces, things that will make our last years on earth more tolerable.

  29. For a scientist he has not got a clue, houses quite often have rooms up to 2000ppm, most health and safety regs say 5000ppm is a working limit with up to 35000ppm for short periods (15 minutes).
    Very sad to think that they are teaching our young.

    • I agree.
      “The researchers noted that typical carbon dioxide concentrations outside are approximately 380 parts per million, while inside office buildings, the concentrations usually aren’t any higher than 1,000 parts per million. However, in classrooms, researchers found that carbon dioxide concentrations can go be as high as 3,000 parts per million, or more. (Federal occupational exposure guidelines for carbon dioxide concentrations are 5,000 parts per million for eight hours.)”

      • With co2 levels so high, shouldn’t there be a greenhouse effect and there would be no need to heat those places? And in a closed area too! Not like an open atmosphere where it could be debatable whether the heat is retained or not.

    • This bit from the remarkable Dr. Fraser seems to be confused-
      “At the higher end of the scale, a smoggy day in the densely polluted cities of Beijing or Shanghai could see carbon figures as high as 600ppm to 700ppm.”
      Everyone who works in an office, school, store, etc. experiences much higher CO2 concentrations every day, even in the cleanest-of-the-clean cities of the world.
      CO2 is not carbon.
      Smog and CO2 are separate issues. Mashing them up in a sentence is silly.

  30. Actually, I’m more concerned about Guam. Has Guam reached its tipping point yet? I’d hate to see it “tip over and capsize” from housing too many Marines.

  31. We skeptics have known it for years, and now the climageddonists are finally admitting it; their climate fears are all just in their heads! And now, with 400 ppm they have reached their “psychological tipping point”. Their CO2-obsessed irrational fears will now be sending hoards of them into psychiatric treatment and group therapy sessions. It will be a veritable bonanza for the mental health industry.

  32. Of course Dr Fraser tries to link CO2 to smoggy days and dense pollution. Totally deceitful.

  33. In infrared spectroscopy, there are two common scales commonly used, wavelength in um, and energy in cm-1.
    CO2 has a relatively weak weak absorption band at 15 um is officially given as 665 cm-1. It did not take people long to unofficially round that up to 666 cm-1. 666 is the mark of the Beast and therefor CO2 is the molecule of the Beast. (Interesting that the weak line at 666 cm-1 is the one that all the fuss is about)
    And now you know.

  34. In critical editions of the New Testament, it’s noted that some manuscripts have 616 as the Number of the Beast. 6/6/16 has both variants!

  35. Oh noes! We hit an arbitrary number which is significant only due to some quirk of our base digit!. If only we had had the foresight to choose a different arbitrary number then things would have been better…

    • If only we had just 8 fingers instead of ten, then the psychological breaking point wouldn’t be reached until 620 ppm. Oh well.

  36. “CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6”
    CSIRO,,, hmmm. I recall hearing something about impending “LAYOFF” there.
    Is he going on about CO2 and June 6 because that’s when the first of the “pink slips” go out.
    I can dream right?

  37. “To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2.”
    Who cares!? If the person standing next to you on the street or wherever exhales in your general direction, you could be hit with 40,000ppm of CO2, so big deal! Sometimes the things people get alarmed about make me laugh.

  38. They seek it here, They seek it there,
    Those Alarmists seek it everywhere.
    Is it in the Sky? — Is it in the Sea?
    That damned elusive Delta Tee….
    For they are dedicated followers of fashion…
    (with apologies to Baroness Orczy, and of course, the Kinks)

  39. There is only one tipping point involved. It is the point at which the global warmers tip their glasses to their lips so that whatever they drink causes them to hallucinate.

    • Not quite correct. The amount of CO2 in exhaled breath is a function of the partial pressure of CO2 in the blood – measured as 45 mmHg.
      Since at sea level, the atmospheric pressure is 1013.25 Pa, 14.696 psi, 29.92 inHg or 760 mmHg, then the concentration of CO2 in exhaled air is actually 6% – 60,000ppm.

      • But that is only with normal breathing. If you are panting as after running a mile in 4 minutes 11 seconds, then you are taking in an awful lot of air with very little time to swap the oxygen for CO2, so surely the CO2 concentration will be low. But if you hold your breath for 40 seconds the CO2 concentration can be so high as to blow the alarm on a gas meter.

  40. Well, if that is a “tipping point”, why are we trying to reduce our carbon footprint? Further “resistance is futile”.

  41. over the past 550 million years
    1,000 to 2,000 ppm: The level of CO2 at which plant growers like to keep their greenhouses 40,000 ppm: The exhaled breath of normal, healthy people.
    8,000 ppm: CO2 standard for submarines
    2,500 ppm: CO2 level in a small hot crowded bar in the city
    2,000 ppm: The point at which my CO2 meter squawks by playing Fur Elise
    1,000 to 2,000 ppm: Historical norms for the earth’s atmosphere
    1,000 ppm: Average level in a lecture hall filled with students
    600 ppm: CO2 level in my office with me and my husband in it
    490 ppm: CO2 level in my office working alone
    390 ppm: Current average outdoor level of CO2 in the air
    280 ppm: Pre-industrial levels in the air, on the edge of “CO2 famine” for plants
    150 ppm: The point below which most plants die of CO2

    • 20,000 ppm when chest heaviness/deeper respiration & 30,000 doubles rate breathing ( 50,000ppm breathing 4 times more). (2012) “Is CO2 an indoor pollutant? Direct effects of low-to-moderate CO2 concentrations on human decision-making performance”, by Satish,et.al correlated “basic activity, applied activity,focused activity,task orientation,initiative,information orientation,information utilization, approach breadth & basic strategy” under 600/1,000/2,500 ppm CO2. Information orientation & focused activity were only dynamics where level of c CO2 was irrelevant; initiative & strategy were very poor at 2,500ppm.
      Unless I have outside air exchange when in bedroom CO2 builds up over 1,000 while sleep, even with door to rest of house open or ceiling fan on. Pet dogs have always preferred to be covered up even in tropics. I think they use tactic to shut off sense of smell distracting them & more than that think like the higher CO2 making them drowsy.

  42. I am still trying to see if there is any
    ……..”cheese at the bottom of this rat hole”
    as Albert Yu use to ask.
    CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser claims several trite or indeterminate things
    …1. “psychological tipping point”. – yes, well, there are good doctors for mental problems
    …2.”… when I started measuring CO2 in the atmosphere in the 1970s…” a newbie,
    …..tell me about the Minoan and Roman warm periods.
    …3. “…unlikely to drop below 400..” so what?
    …..Very limited data being rudely extrapolated?
    So, he is here now, he measures something, “world ended, details at 11”
    => how much of his salary is he willing to bet and on what?
    I really disliked folk I hired who were the “center of (their) universe” and were always whining about how the “world will end” if we don’t promote them.

  43. ..We are about to hit PEAK stupidity, then the world will come to it’s senses and put these people back in their “Little White Rooms”, padded of course !

  44. “but when it does hit 400ppm mark it would be a “psychological tipping point”.”
    There it is folks. There’s no real physical tipping point. It’s nothing more than a figment of alarmists’ imaginations. They’re coming right out and saying it yet all the useful idiots still believe it’s real.

  45. I think he is wrong on the tipping point. I believe it is probably more like 401.5 or maybe 402.3.

  46. At our nearby university here is a part course outline for environmental studies. Also I cannot find any climate scientists but can find atmospheric scientists, interesting.
    ENSC 201 – Weather and Climate
    This course explains the fundamental processes of weather and climate, and leads the student toward an understanding of how the atmosphere works and how to interpret the weather. Topics introduced include: atmospheric energy, solar and terrestrial radiation, the “Greenhouse Effect”, and climate change, air quality and stratospheric ozone, humidity, clouds, precipitation, storms and weather systems, hurricanes and tornadoes, stability and thunderstorms, wind and atmospheric dynamics, and weather forecasting.
    The chair of, Chemistry, Environmental Science and
    Environmental Engineering, writes a science column in the local paper which can be quite good but he goes off the rails when it comes to climate, he is a big supporter of AGW, CAGW and being the chair well there is bias.
    Also this university in partnership with the city just renewed a four year lease on a Nisson Leaf. Now we are in a northern climate which in the winter degrades the performance of the car. The uni is up hill from city hall with a total distance of about 15 k, flat and uphill combined. Now in the winter that car will only make it oneway to the uni but with the heater off, and wipers off. In the last four years the car has low mileage as hardly driven and not useful especially in winter, but lease renewed anyhow.

  47. Just 3 million years ago CO2 levels were greater than .04% yet no climate tipping point was encountered. There is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on climate.

      • So let me add a little more to what I have posted.
        Despite all the claims, there is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on climate. There is no such evidence in the paleoclimate record. There is evidence that warmer temperatures cause more CO2 to enter the atmosphere but there is no evidence that this additional CO2 causes any more warming. If additional greenhouse gases caused additional warming then the primary culprit would have to be H2O which depends upon the warming of just the surfaces of bodies of water and not their volume but such is not part of the AGW conjecture. In other words CO2 increases in the atmosphere as huge volumes of water increase in temperature but more H2O enters the atmosphere as just the surface of bodies of water warm. We live in a water world where the majority of the Earth’s surface is some form of water. Models have been generated that show that the climate change we have been experiencing is caused by the sun and the oceans over which Man has no control.
        The AGW theory is that adding CO2 to the atmosphere causes an increase in its radiant thermal insulation properties causing restrictions in heat flow which in turn cause warming at the Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere. In itself the effect is small because we are talking about small changes in the CO2 content of the atmosphere and CO2 comprises only about .04% of dry atmosphere if it were only dry but that is not the case. Actually H2O, which averages around 2%, is the primary greenhouse gas. The AGW conjecture is that the warming causes more H2O to enter the atmosphere which further increases the radiant thermal insulation properties of the atmosphere and by so doing so amplifies the effect of CO2 on climate. At first this sounds very plausible. This is where the AGW conjecture ends but that is not all what must happen if CO2 actually causes any warming at all.
        Besides being a greenhouse gas, H2O is also a primary coolant in the Earth’s atmosphere transferring heat energy from the Earth;s surface to where clouds form via the heat of vaporization. More heat energy is moved by H2O via phase change then by both convection and LWIR absorption band radiation combined. More H2O means that more heat energy gets moved which provides a negative feedback to any CO2 based warming that might occur. Then there is the issue of clouds. More H2O means more clouds. Clouds not only reflect incoming solar radiation but they radiate to space much more efficiently then the clear atmosphere they replace. Clouds provide another negative feedback. Then there is the issue of the upper atmosphere which cools rather than warms. The cooling reduces the amount of H2O up there which decreases any greenhouse gas effects that CO2 might have up there. In total, H2O provides negative feedback’s which must be the case because negative feedback systems are inherently stable as has been the Earth’s climate for at least the past 500 million years, enough for life to evolve. We are here. The wet lapse rate being smaller then the dry lapse rate is further evidence of H2O’s cooling effects.
        The entire so called, “greenhouse” effect that the AGW conjecture is based upon is at best very questionable. A real greenhouse does not stay warm because of the heat trapping effects of greenhouse gases. A real greenhouse stays warm because the glass reduces cooling by convection. This is a convective greenhouse effect. So too on Earth..The surface of the Earth is 33 degrees C warmer than it would be without an atmosphere because gravity limits cooling by convection. This convective greenhouse effect is observed on all planets in the solar system with thick atmospheres and it has nothing to do with the LWIR absorption properties of greenhouse gases. the convective greenhouse effect is calculated from first principals and it accounts for all 33 degrees C. There is no room for an additional radiant greenhouse effect. Our sister planet Venus with an atmosphere that is more than 90 times more massive then Earth’s and which is more than 96% CO2 shows no evidence of an additional radiant greenhouse effect. The high temperatures on the surface of Venus can all be explained by the planet’s proximity to the sun and its very dense atmosphere. The radiant greenhouse effect of the AGW conjecture has never been observed. If CO2 did affect climate then one would expect that the increase in CO2 over the past 30 years would have caused an increase in the natural lapse rate in the troposphere but that has not happened. Considering how the natural lapse rate has changed as a function of an increase in CO2, the climate sensitivity of CO2 must equal 0.0.
        This is all a matter of science

    • There’s no evidence that salt or saturated fat cause illness, either, but that doesn’t prevent millions from parroting the “facts” that “everyone knows.” I agree we’re about to hit “Peak Stupid.”

      • For me there is such evidence since too much salt and too much fat makes me feel bad. As I have posted above, there is plenty of scientific reasoning that also supports the idea that CO2 has no effect on climate.

  48. Should the EPA regulate CO2? At what level?
    Of course the EPA must regulate CO2. Just look at the dangers of Hypercapnia.
    At 1% concentration of carbon dioxide CO2 (10,000 parts per million or ppm) and under continuous exposure at that level, such as in an auditorium filled with occupants and poor fresh air ventilation, some occupants are likely to feel drowsy. Carbon dioxide concentration must be over t 2% (20,000 ppm) before most people are aware of its presence unless the odor of an associated material (auto exhaust or fermenting yeast, for instance) is present at lower concentrations. Above 2%, carbon dioxide may cause a feeling of heaviness in the chest and/or more frequent and deeper respirations. If exposure continues at that level for several hours, minimal “acidosis” (an acid condition of the blood) may occur but more often is absent. Breathing rate doubles at 3% CO2 and is four times the normal rate at 5% CO2. Toxic levels of carbon dioxide: at levels above 5%, concentration CO2 is directly toxic. [At lower levels we may see the effects of a reduction in the relative amount of oxygen and not direct toxicity of CO2.]
    So I guess the EPA should monitor the CO2 levels, and when they reach 10000 ppm they will have to regulate it. (I am only half-way kidding, indoor concentrations can reach these levels).

  49. Traditionally, the Australian banana industry (large scale) stopped at Stuarts Point, a bit north of where I live on the mid-north coast of NSW.
    And the Australian banana industry still stops at Stuarts Point, a bit north of where I live on the mid-north coast of NSW.
    Because nothing in our local records (late 1800s for rain, early 1900s for temps) gives cause to believe that we are living in anything but the same old mid-coast climate. (All months set their record average max here between 1910 and 1919, except August, hottest in 1946. Driest year was 1902, hottest was 1915, wettest was 1950. Heaviest rain occurred over a couple of freaky days during the 1963 flood, which was not, however, as bad as the flood of 1949. Figures for neighbouring regions are wildly different, of course, except all copped the drought of 1902 and the drenching of 1950.)
    Mind you, Bananageddon could come to the Cavendish via disease…but then us resourceful humans will just grow and eat something else, won’t we?
    Next tipping point!

  50. I cant wait until I visit the woods tonight, I thought I seen a group of students go up to the old log cabin, been sharpening my knives all day, happy coincidence, some say! Oh like man made climate change is more realistic ffs, “tipping point”? seriously???

    • Good point. Thanks for making it.
      Those of us who don’t think CO2 has any effect (or so small you can not measure it) on average temperatures in the real world have noticed your point. It is evidence for our contention.

  51. This must the day when this “scientist” runs out of money and needs another federal grant.

  52. CO2, is it “Carbon Pollution?” A Limerick.
    So, it happened again. Global warming was the word, then it became climate change, then it was briefly global climate disruption. Since we have not had any global warming at all for the last 17 years and the latest sign is that we will enter a new little ice age, Obama and the EPA are desperately trying to change the alarmists catchphrase again. This time they came up with “carbon pollution.” It is true, chimney sweeps know all about carbon pollution. Chimneys must be swept, or else we may have a chimney fire. Is that what they mean? It must be, for CO2 is a totally clean gas. It has an effect on humans in large concentrations. Nuclear submarines try to keep the CO2 levels below 8000 ppm for breathing air , or about 20 times current levels. Recent research indicate levels should be kept lower, maybe being capped at around 1500 ppm (see fig at link: https://lenbilen.com/2013/08/15/co2-is-it-carbon-pollution-a-limerick/ )
    The results are interesting. CO2 levels seem to affect initiative and strategic decision making the most. So it is because of all the people full of hot air in congress nothing gets done! However, it is to be noted that this test was performed without allowing for the test subject to accommodate to their new environment. When you climb mountains you have to adjust for weeks before you react normally again. This test is therefore very suspect. While it is true that the people is the subs do not like the air they are forced to breathe, it is not because of CO2, but regular body odor and other pollutants. They get used to it, and their decision making process is not negatively affected except for an occasional cabin fever.
    On a serious note, the 17% increase in CO2 the last 30 years has made the earth about 10 % greener, and we can support another one billion people on earth without starvation, increase wildlife and plant life by about the same amount. Why could that be called “carbon pollution?”
    Obama, why carbon pollution?
    Ban coal is no real solution.
    CO2, it is clean,
    Makes our earth much more green.
    Now that is the green revolution.

  53. I thought we’d already passed several projected tipping points? ….and nothing has happened except to change the “tipping point” to some later date.
    How many failed tipping points does it take for them to realize the whole CAGW theory has toppled?

  54. “but it might be much more than that if a leading scientist’s prediction on climate change is correct.”
    Luckily they haven’t been right about anything so far. I shall rest easy…and chuckle a little.

  55. “… a smoggy day in the densely polluted cities of Beijing or Shanghai could see carbon figures as high as 600ppm to 700ppm …”.
    The good residents at the US embassy in Beijing seem to be completely oblivious to the serious health risks caused by atmospheric CO2 pollution:

  56. Weather is a bit warm lately here in Brisbane.Most days around max of 82 F and just over 5 weeks until winter solstice. Average for May is 76 F.

  57. AGWism is cresting a wave right now, it’s at the height of it’s power, and is only going to decline from here because apart from the fact most of their argument is based on complete guesswork, with 2 legs knocked firmly from under the AGW hypothesis, there is also cultural encroachment.
    The lefties have invaded our homes almost, speak directly to our kids through education, ruining movies (I cant watch a movie if it has AGW propaganda in it in any form) and created a generation of safe space bed wetters, the push back by people who were not even interested is because of the completely over the top left’s antics.
    People are sick of the left, even non political types like myself. The National Socialists were far left, not right.
    Obama is a socialist who talks about American Exceptionalism, tell me how he is not a National socialist?
    His use of executive orders, his not needing congress to have war, he’s made himself a dictator essentially as much as he can.

  58. The left is never satisfied with the power it has. never. The left is about looking for something they do not yet control.
    There are not enough bigots and racists to go round, the left have had to broaden the meanings of those words.
    They will call hundreds of caterers and when they eventually find someone who wont cater for a lesbian wedding the Liberal media makes this huge conspiracy theory up that America is racist.

  59. I wish the warmists would agree on a once and for all no going back tipping point so that when it is reached we can stop all this global warming rubbish. In theory once the tipping point is past then any attempts to reverse the trend is futile. Maybe then we can use the cost of those wasted climate dollars on things like education, health and other useful endeavours.

    • don’t worry- when you tire of this rubbish, there’s plenty more where that came from
      hundreds of millions of citizens have generously endowed the institutions that produce it.

  60. “Almost without exception, every reef we flew across showed consistently high levels of bleaching, from the reef slope right up onto the top of the reef. We flew for 4000 kilometers (2,485 miles) in the most pristine parts of the Great Barrier Reef and saw only four reefs that had no bleaching. The severity is much greater than in earlier bleaching events in 2002 or 1998.”

    • “There are no reputable reports of mass coral bleaching events before 1980.”
      Mike: Are you suggesting that all the reports of mass coral bleachings prior to 1980 are not reputable? What makes those reports disreputable but the ones after 1980 reputable?

    • “There are no reputable reports of mass coral bleaching events before 1980.”
      You are either utterly misinformed or very mendacious.
      Probably both.

      • Got any evidence for mass bleaching events before 1980? That deafening silence would be a nooooooooo…

      • Mike says:
        I’m saying there are no reports of mass coral bleaching events before 1980.
        A 10-second search found this statement:
        Mass coral moralities in coral reef ecosystems have been reported in all major reef provinces since the 1870s.
        catweazel says about Mike:
        You are either utterly misinformed or very mendacious.
        No doubt he’s both.

      • Mike
        Got any more to say on the subject? That deafening silence would be a nooooooooo…

      • Mike corals bleach every positive ENSO.
        Corals are in different places with different conditions
        We just dont have records pre 1982 of any useful extend. To you that means “it didn’t happen” I have seen this logic before.
        MWP is detected in Europe Asia the US, but not the tropics and SH because we have no data, and obviously you warmers compute that has not happening.
        Phil Jones at the CRU said “we cant say it was global due to lack of data” he never said it didn’t happen, that was the Hookeyshtick, the discredited junk study.

      • You’re such a chump stealey. If youd bothered to actually read your link youd see that it supports exactly what ive been saying. What a chump you are.
        “Prior to the 1980s, most mass coral moralities were related to non-thermal disturbances such as storms, aerial exposures during extreme low tides, and Acanthaster outbreaks. Coral bleaching accompanied some of the mortality events prior to the 1980s during periods of elevated sea water temperature, but these disturbances were geographically isolated and restricted to particular reefs zones. In contrast, many of the coral bleaching events observed in the 1980s occurred over large geographic regions and at all depths.”

      • No mike that was another part of the study, I simple used the data to make my own case for ENSO, I did not post the link to the paper the chart comes from to support an argument.
        Authors reach their conclusions, not everyone who looks at their data agrees with their conclusions.
        It seem such simple things escape you.

      • ‘Mike” says:
        “I’m saying there are no reports of mass coral bleaching events before 1980.”
        ‘Mike” can’t handle the truth. Here is the quote from the link once again, verbatim:
        Mass coral moralities in coral reef ecosystems have been reported in all major reef provinces since the 1870s.
        ‘Mike” stated that there were no known coral bleaching events before 1980. Now that he’s been debunked, he’s name-calling. That’s all he’s got now.

    • Hey Mike, there are also no reputable reports of cyclones in northern Australia before the early 1900s, so obviously cyclones never happened before then – unless you can show me a reliable report from an earlier time. Get the point?
      There are no reports of coral bleaching because no one was given a government grant to look for them. These days if your income depends upon finding something wrong with the reef, you’ll find it no matter what. How many aerial surveys of the entire reef were conducted prior to 1980 and how many show a totally unbleached reef? How many scientists were out over the reef in choppers in the 1930s looking for bleaching when the world really was burning up? Your reply will be enlightening I’m sure.
      We see the same recycled scare stories from the same recycled quack scientists every couple of years. The reef is always at death’s door, then magically it is OK again ready for their next prediction of doom. Go back through the records and see for yourself just how many times the reef is already supposed to have died – yet it is still there as big as ever.
      Bleaching is a natural event that rejuvenates the reef. Reefs grow by dying off then being re-colonised with a greater diversity of species – always to the astonishment of the “scientists” who witness the sudden regrowth. The corals do not die off forever. Go and do some research instead of swallowing the global warming swill dished up by the ABC.

      • Poor mike cant see how moronic his arguments are.
        No evidence for Bleaching pre 1982 = It didn’t happen.
        When you point out a lack of records does not support his position either, he goes full rtrd, never go full rtrd

    • So, what’s your point?
      If I pay another 10% for energy production/use will the reef corals thrive into the future … will the “bleaching” cease?
      Maybe they should reduce the chopper flights, airplane tours, and even eliminate the future boat surveying tours of the corals to do their part. Maybe not … since it wouldn’t make a bit of difference in the overall scheme. Maybe everyone else should reduce their co2 output … and by June 6th of this year.

    • I see you ignore the salient points Mike and keep repeating the same ill informed nonsense.
      The El Nino in 1878 would certainly have caused coral bleaching.

  61. “To put the 400ppm into perspective, Dr Fraser said if you stood near a highway with cars going past, you could be hit with 500ppm of CO2.”
    It is not unusual for continental cities in winter, experiencing an inversion in windless or low wind conditions, to exceed 1000 ppm CO2. The idea that 400 or 500 means anything is silly. The floor-level in a jungle, just before dawn, also has a peak well above the global average.

    • My tropical farm is in a semi-arid region at the base of tree covered low mountains; we get a seasonal rainy season. This data from a “dry” tropical Mexico forest seems to reflect tropical variation. I am not parsing field crops, which tend to have diurnal
      CO2 fluctuation.
      In cited dry tropical area in Mexico prior to seasonal rains during May 23 gr C02/sq.m. got put out since leaf area had been reduced (& arid). June exponentially put out 200 gr. CO2/sq.m in the same area due to arrival of rain, which started soil microbial activity & vegetation ramped up respiratory cycle. However, June’s heavier rainfall caused plant leaf canopy to start filling out & in that stage 70 g CO2/sq.mt was removed from the same area’s ecosystem. As the rains started to taper off in August the leaf canopy growth peaked at maximum expanse & an impressive 395 g. CO2/sq.mt. was taken out of the air. As the rains declined by half from their high 213 g.CO2/sq.m in that area was taken out of the air in Sept. Apparently leaf sennesence
      began to occur in Oct & the vegetation could only take 83g.CO2/sq.m out of the air; leaf loss beginning means less gas exchange.
      Data from (2010)”Carbon dioxide and water vapour exchange in a tropical dry forest as influenced by the North American monsoon system”, by Perez-Ruiz, et.al. My point is that we will be breathing different levels of CO2 depending on the stage of moisture & the age of vegetation even if all we know is that we are in the same nature area; the vegetation could be sucking up the CO2 around us, or conversely not.

  62. Maybe the psychological tipping point for climate scientists is when they realise it’s not as bad as they thought. Warmists become Luke warmers etc?

  63. I personally would like to thank this “scientist” for giving me the best reason yet why they are so wrong ,as someone else pointed out .
    If low Co2 is good and high Co2 is bad ,where in earths history has this been evident ,the opposite is actually the case !

  64. If a “tipping point” is a point of no return, then I’ll be glad to see it pass by. After 6/6/16 alarmists will no longer have any reason to demand that we stop using coal or other fossil fuels. It will be too late to do any good. I guess we’ll find out soon if they believe their own hype, or if they will extend the deadline to give us more time to meet their blackmail demands. I suspect the latter because this has little to do with climate change and everything to do with money and power.

      • We’re way pass “tipping point” for the sinking of the credibility of science institutions.
        We might reach “peek ridicule” soon.

  65. CO2’s forcing effect is a logarithmic function, so each incremental increase of CO2 has less and less of an effect…..
    The silly CAGW hypothesis erroneously projects an exponential rise of global warming from CO2 forcing, which is physically impossible and NOT supported by the physics nor the empirical evidence….
    We’ve enjoyed about 0.2C of beneficial CO2 warming recovery out of the total 0.82C of total warming recovery since the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850..
    Moreover, we’ve enjoyed a 25% increase of crop yields from CO2 fertilization since 1850, and about 25~50% of global greening from CO2 fertilization just since 1980…
    How do the above CO2 benefits from rising CO2 levels equate to passing ” dangerous tipping point” next week: higher crop yields, more global greening, increased water efficiency from shrinking leaf stomata, higher plant drought resistance, more phytoplankton for healthier ocean life, slightly less alkaline oceans, slightly more global precipitation from slightly higher ocean evaporation, less severe winters, earlier springs, longer growing seasons, more arable land in Northern latitudes, expanding tree lines, etc…
    Are we “tipping” into a greener and healthier planet from slightly higher CO2 concentrations?
    Where is the catastrophe?
    Why is CAGW still a thing?

  66. That’s a Monday. If the world is going to enter it’s final stages of drain circling, I’d expect it to happen on Monday. Obviously fate knows about our arbitrary dating scheme, too.

  67. Patrick Moore said in a lecture that average global temp for the last billion years was 22.5 C…..AV global temp now is 14.5C. We are in an ice age.

  68. ” Mike
    May 14, 2016 at 7:04 pm
    Got any evidence for mass bleaching events before 1980? That deafening silence would be a nooooooooo…”
    Ever hear of null hypothesis, you have no evidence it didn’t happen either. Yet you claim “IT didnt happen”

    • Exactly- there a zero records of it happening- as far as we know it’s never happened- and yet folks have been diving in the ocean for a long long time. And yet now it’s a regular event with every El Nino.
      I’m sure that folks given a day or two on here will come up with some convoluted explanation like bleaching events were common place during the medieval warm period or some nonsense when great herds of wilderbeast strode majestically across greenland’s plains and the inhabitants sipped wine from olives they grew on the balmy shores of Godthåb. The cognitive dissonance must be extraordinary trying to think up explanations for the bleeding obvious, but libertarians were never the most intelligent or balanced folk.
      Well Marky Mark it’s been fun. I wish I could say I could be arsed arguing with you a bit longer, but you’re clearly a bit of a moron driven by ideology. Get a degree. Learn something about the world. Your ex-wife and children will thank you for it.
      Toodles. xo

      • Hey Mike ,so your a greenie and a cowboy who knew , Mark is driven by science you are driven by ideology .
        You have that wrong as well , when you have proof of any CAGW let the IPCC know because they have no evidence at all just a prediction on computer .
        Please feel free to return the insult don’t worry about evidence there is none .

      • ‘Mike’ ignores the posted link showing that coral bleaching happened routinely back in the 1800’s (and undoubtedly before); well before human emissions could have had an effect.
        Therefore, coral bleaching is a natural event, Mike is flat wrong, and now he tucks tail and runs. Typical igorant commenter, parroting what he reads from other ignorant parrots.
        This is a science site, ‘Mike’. [trimmed, .mod]

      • He had to leave. His panties were in such a twist they were cutting off bllood flow to his brain.
        Not that there’s much there to begin with.

      • Again, you simpleton, if you have no data you cant make any claim, you made a specific claim.
        What we do know is positive ENSO being temps over the the thermal limit for corals.
        Everything else you say is bunk.

      • “By far the most devastating impacts in terms of suffering and loss of life occurred in the semiarid region of northeast Brazil where several hundreds of thousands of people died from starvation and diseases during the drought that started in 1877.”
        1877\78 el nino
        Sorry Mike, this was a significant event, and it would have almost certainly caused coral bleaching.

  69. Yes the bleaching is worse than we thought the sky is falling the sky is falling 97 percent agree .
    Blah blah blah , you realise Mike your churning out Co2 at an alarming rate but then you would be a hypocrite unless you are peddling right now .

  70. Federal election July 2nd here in Aus, and the Greens are going nowhere while the economy tanks. Lowest cash interest rates EVAH in Aus means only one thing. The economy *IS* tanking. Lets hope all those rich people keep selling a buying multi-million dollar properties or the Aussie economy will go bust! LOL Oh wait!

  71. “”When you get away from the cities and into the background air, that’s the one that really drives climate change, that’s in terms of representing the entire globe,” Dr Fraser said.”
    Surely when you get away from the cities and into the background air the whole problem goes away, no more UHI corrupting the temperature data!

  72. 665 was the number of the beast. It’s just easier to remember his neighbour, at 666 when potted!

  73. A psychological tipping point? Hmm, consensus science at work? Declare an emergency before anything happens? Hmm…they are warning us to prepare for heat but it looks like a cold summer, this year, where I live. Not ready for primetime, IMO, these claims are becoming more and more ridiculous but those gruberite-lemmingss don’t seem to pick up on it – do they?

    • It now appears that the hot money is on a global cooling tipping point in 2017.
      Denialati members are under instructions to downplay the significance, to avoid riots and other social phenomenon.
      Do not be afraid, humanity has been here many times before and survived.

  74. CSIRO fellow Dr Paul Fraser has earmarked June 6 (“plus or minus a week”) as the day when carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will hit the point of no return, 400 parts per million (ppm).

    Well now, iffen CO2 ppm “hits” 400 ppm on 6-06-16 then that will surely be the 2nd time in 2016 that it did so.
    DUH, by June 06 the atmospheric CO2 will be in its bi-yearly decreasing mode which has already started or about to start any day now (in mid to late May).

    • MarkW, I should have included this as part of Dr Paul Fraser claim about 400 ppm, to wit:

      The atmospheric measuring station at Cape Grim in Tasmania has recorded the current C02 levels in the atmosphere at 399.9ppm.

  75. difference between 399 and 400 ppm trivial? I would also argue the difference between 200 and 400 parts per million is also trivial. Both are vanishingly small numbers.

  76. Very much looking forward to the tipping point. It’s about time something happened. Global warming? Never amounted to much. Climate change? Huh. What’s that? Now a tipping point…that might be something. Question: What precisely happens in a “tipping point”. I am a bit disappointed to hear that it is “psychological”.
    Anyhow, I am looking forward to it on June 6th. I’ve marked my calendar. Hope something happens.

  77. Eric,
    In answer to your pictorial question: I don’t think that it (400ppm) would necessarily wilt your banana.
    We could all burn more coal tonight (the winds could be kind) and your banana … well … only YOU can tell us the truth.
    With all this carbonated oxygen in the sky, my money’s on “your banana gets bigger”.

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