Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Michael Metcalfe, a senior merchant banker who gave a TED Talk in 2014 campaigning for money to be printed on a vast scale, to fund global charities, now wants governments to print 100s of billions of dollars, to combat Climate Change.
Can we print money for climate finance? Three years ago, the idea of using money in this way was something of a taboo. Once you break down and dismantle the idea that money is a finite resource, governments can quickly get overwhelmed by demands from their people to print more and more money for other causes: education, health care, welfare — even defense.
And there are some truly terrible historical examples of money printing — uncontrolled money printing — leading to hyperinflation. Think: Weimar Republic in 1930; Zimbabwe more recently, in 2008, when the prices of basic goods like bread are doubling every day. But all of this is moving the public debate forward, so much so, that money printing for the people is now discussed openly in the financial media, and even in some political manifestos.
But it’s important the debate doesn’t stop here, with printing national currencies. Because climate change is a shared global problem, there are some really compelling reasons why we should be printing that international currency that’s issued by the IMF, to fund it. The Special Drawing Right, or SDR, is the IMF’s electronic unit of account that governments use to transfer funds amongst each other. Think of it as a peer-to-peer payment network, like Bitcoin, but for governments.
And it’s truly global. Each of the 188 members of the IMF hold SDR quotas as part of their foreign exchange reserves. These are national stores of wealth that countries keep to protect themselves against currency crises. And that global nature is why, at the height of the financial crisis in 2009, the IMF issued those extra 250 billion dollars — because it served as a collective global action that safeguarded countries large and small in one fell swoop.
But here — here’s the intriguing part. More than half of those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009 — 150 billion dollars’ worth — went to developed market countries who, for the most part, have a modest need for these foreign exchange reserves, because they have flexible exchange rates. So those extra reserves that were printed in 2009, in the end, for developed market countries at least, weren’t really needed. And they remain unused today.
So here’s an idea. As a first step, why don’t we start spending those unused, those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009, to combat climate change?
The Climate TED Talk was filmed in 2015, though the recording appears to have just been posted on the internet today.
From my perspective, there seems to be a remarkable similarity between Metcalfe’s 2014 plan to print vast sums of new money and give it to the UN, to combat global poverty, and Metcalfe’s November 2015 plan to print vast sums of new money and give it to the UN, to combat climate change.
Both of Metcalfe’s schemes seem to involve imposing what is effectively a gigantic new UN tax on the world’s workers.
Printing money is the ultimate stealth tax – instead of openly taking money out of people’s pockets, printing new money drains value from cash already in circulation. People still have the same amount of money as they did before you printed the new money, but some of the buying power of that money has been transferred into the newly minted cash.
But what about the alleged “benefits” of inflating the economy with newly printed money?
I spent a lot of time with bankers during the crisis, developing banking software. The rest of the economy had already collapsed, and I had bills to pay.
In my opinion, the only people the bailouts “saved” were bankers, and friendly senior politicians and donors who were heavily invested in banking stocks.
The bankers I talked to knew Subprime Mortgages were trash, well before the financial crisis, but there are fancy strategies by which sharp financial traders can make money out of the most unlikely rubbish.
However these fancy strategies require certain preconditions to function. One of these implicit preconditions is that the market remains “liquid”. The magic only works, when traders can keep their inherently unstable Portfolios balanced, by continuously buying and selling small parcels of financial instruments.
When Subprime mortgages collapsed, triggering the 2007 banking crisis, the market totally froze. Nobody was interested in buying subprime mortgage products at any price. Almost everyone was stuck with unbalanced portfolio positions which they were no longer able to adjust, positions which rapidly toppled into bank breaking losses.
Then suddenly it was all better – the friendly politicians showed up, with a huge deluge of freshly printed money, to make it all better. Not only did this public cash save the jobs and savings of the people whose recklessness had created the crisis, the public money actually enriched many of the failed bankers, in some cases beyond their wildest dreams.
Precious little of the bailout money helped ordinary taxpayers, who ultimately funded the bailout, via the money printing stealth tax.
If politicians listen to Metcalfe’s plan, and fire up the printing presses to “save the climate”, fund global charities, or for this year’s noble sounding cause, whatever that is, all that will happen in my opinion is that bankers will grow even fatter. The increased funding will help the UN to become more powerful. And of course, ordinary people, who would ultimately pay for this new banker party through the depleted spending power of their debased life savings, will be further impoverished.
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Fonzie – as per instructions, here I am. I don’t think I have much else to say. I just don’t think some incremental changes in interest rates can hold back the tsunami. I could be wrong, but I sense there’s a lot of pent-up activity waiting to be launched as soon as people know A) their efforts will be worth the reward and B) they won’t be regulated and litigated out of existence.
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” – Ronald Reagan
Alright, Bart, i guess we’ll let this thing go then. I do think we have a ways to go here though. In fact i’ll try to critique your comment to at least give you some food for thought to take with you. (i’ll try to coach it in language that doesn’t make you feel compelled to answer; a text smiley in return would be nice just to let me know you got my comment)…
If it is a tsunami then it WILL be inflationary. And those interest rates that would hold back the tsunami won’t necessarily be “incremental”. Volker had them up near 20% and there is no limit as to how high and how fast they’ll be rising. (my dim recollection of greenspan in early 2000 with the “dot com” bubble might be a case in point) As for your points “A” and “B”, “A” the fed could do that without Trump all on it’s own just by letting the economy grow and “B” fed inflation policy (keeping people poor keeps prices down…) is the ultimate regulation specifically designed regulate peoples’ success out of existence. Just some food for thought here, Bart, no need to answer me back
(do leave me a smiley, eh?)…
Oh, and one last thought that’s sure to be provocative: i hate to say it, bart, but when it comes to economics, reagan was just a big dummy! (he just wasn’t as big a dummy as carter was)…
(wink!)…
Yo, Bartemis, down here {8^D)
If you want to call it quits let me know. As for me? The fonz is always ready to roll!!! (aaaaaaaaay)…
The Fed didn’t stop Reagan’s recovery.
Right, but by then they didn’t have to. The recession brought inflation down and with the unemployment rate so high there was plenty of room for the economy to grow without inflation concerns.* The eighties were without the oil price shocks of the seventies, but even so by the time reagan installed greenspan inflation was up to the levels of the nixon administration (which the fed considered to be too high). Bart, i was very surprised recently to find out that the unemployment rate was higher under reagan than the low of the carter administration (may ’79) until april 1988, the last year of his administration!!! Now that’s quite a stat. Perception (at least my own) always seemed to be otherwise. About reagan, i’d just say that you can’t have it both ways. High growth with low unemployment inherently means high inflation. Reagan sought both the growth AND low inflation… Truth be told, ALL the presidents didn’t quite get it. I’m not sure who was goofier. Nixon with his price controls, carter with the appointment of volker or obama with his stated desire for full employment only to install a fed chair who’s at least as tight fisted as “cranky bernanke”. I think it’s kind of like agw. Leaders just aren’t that smart when it comes to agw. So the same with economics. They just don’t realize what’s going on. And with fed policy, to politicians i think it’s even more obscure than agw. So they just ain’t getting it on the left or the right. (the unanimous cries for better wages for the middle class are nonsense in light of greenspan economics) In all fairness to reagan, he did inherit a BIG mess and i’m sure it’s alot harder being president than it looks…
*bart, this point i’m making (at the asterisk) will be the key difference with a president trump verses president reagan. The economy is already at full employment by greenspan standards. Reagan had plenty of room to grow; Trump won’t…
Someone tell our senior merchant banker and TED talker that they’re already doing it.