From the same sort of Dr. David Viner mindset that brought us “Snowfall will be a thing of the past” comes this teary-eyed missive:
Snowobiling could be hard hit by climate change, new study says
Declining snowfall in Vermont, a likely byproduct of a warming climate, is sure to negatively affect the state’s $600 million snowmobile industry. New research provides a sobering look at just how much.
A significant part of Vermont’s snowmobiling appeal lies in its interlocking network of trails, which allow snowmobilers to cover large geographic areas, said Robert Manning, a natural resources professor at the University of Vermont and lead author of the study, which is based on an online survey of 1,450 members of VAST, the Vermont Association of Snow Travelers, in November and December 2015. VAST members live both in and out of the state.
The survey results were presented at a meeting of the Northeast Recreation Research Symposium in Annapolis, Maryland on April 4.
“If connections between trails are lost, even if there’s sufficient snow cover in pockets of the state, participation rates could decline sharply,” he said.
Once the percentage of Vermont trails that are open drops below about 65 percent, snowmobilers will begin to stay home, according to the survey. With about half the trails open, participation would drop 25 percent. With 10 percent open, the participation rate would decline by 75 percent.
Another troubling fact to emerge: 70 percent of snowmobilers surveyed said they began their snowmobile rides from their homes, a convenience that relies on good snow cover. 31.2 percent reported that having to drive to snowmobile trails would detract “a great deal” from the experience.
Days of snow cover were also a significant detractor; with fewer than 75 days of cover, participation rates began to decline. With 25 days, rates would decline by 50 percent.
Snow decline in Vermont is likely, given past history and projected temperature increases
Declining snowfall in Vermont at the normal elevations of most snowmobile trails has already occurred and is likely to continue in coming years.
During the 1960s, the average snow depth for winter (December to February) was six inches, according the statistics compiled by the National Weather Service at the Burlington International Airport, but has been closer to four inches during the last decade, the lower limit for snowmobiling. Over the past two decades (from 1995 to 2014), Vermont has experienced the highest winter temperatures observed in the historical record, according to the National Climate Assessment Summary for Vermont.
Vermont’s temperatures are projected to rise by another 2 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, according to the Vermont Climate Assessment, making further diminution of average snow depth likely.
“The repercussions of climate change on Vermont’s snowmobile industry could be significant,” said Manning. “Even modest declines in participation could affect the VAST budget and, potentially, the organizations’ ability to maintain trails.”
Regular grooming of trails was one of the most significant factors survey respondents cited as defining a quality snowmobiling experience.
“Given the importance of the snowmobile industry as an economic driver, in Vermont and elsewhere,” Manning said, “this one more reason why we need to do all we can to address the challenge of climate change.”
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If true, then the snowmobile industry will surely decline. On the other hand, if true, the number of cases of frostbite, freezing, and injuries related to snow and ice will also decline. As will the amount of salt used on roads, municipal money for snow plowing equipment and cost of heating homes in the winter.
A true tragedy. A shame it’s not likely true.
Quick addendum. I just looked up cost of treating frostbite. According to CBC news (using figures from the Canadian Institute of Health Information and the provincial health ministries), the cost of frostbite treatment in Alberta is $10,595 — just slightly more than the treatment for tuberculosis ($10,123).
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/healthcare/healthservices_cost.html
“If connections between trails are lost, even if there’s sufficient snow cover in pockets of the state, participation rates could decline sharply,” he said.
Once the percentage of Vermont trails that are open drops below about 65 percent, snowmobilers will begin to stay home, according to the survey.
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Is this a market study – compare with the quads market.
compare to the quads market. My dinglish.
Funny, they never care about the hundreds that are unemployed due to oil and gas costs going down and coal mines closing. I’m guessing this is just another lie to try and make people think they care. Hundreds of service jobs during the winter versus hundreds of high paying mining and oil jobs year round? Part-time, low pay wins every time.
Temperatures are expected to rise between 2 and 3.6F in the next 25 years?????
Where the blank did that come from? Even the IPCC isn’t projecting that much for the next century.
Ontario, Canada had a pretty warm winter. At least the start and middle had less snow than normal.
However, spring more than made up for it. Even in Toronto, we had more snow in the first week in April than we did in all of January and February.
My brother lives on one of the busiest snowmobile trails in Canada (and they had a snowfall of almost a foot last week, and still have snowbanks). Most snowmobilers also have ATVs, so the trail got almost as much use as it did in previous years.
I doubt Vermonters are much different…
You would think the Vermont leftists would be applauding this, no more spewing nasty pollution and CO2 in the air from those nasty snow mobiles, now get back in the house and make some more tallow candles and spin some more yarn.
Rutgers University funded by NASA and NOAA show a steady increase in snow coverage for the Northern Hemisphere using satellite records covering 30 years.
Owen, can you clarify? I would love it to be true, but I am not seeing it on the Rutgers website. See http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=3