One of the longest running climate prediction blunders has disappeared from the Internet

Readers of WUWT and millions of climate skeptics have read this article before, and in fact it is likely one of the most cited articles ever that illustrates the chutzpah and sheer hubris on display from a climate scientist who was so certain he could predict the future with certainty. Dr. David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit who famously said:

From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

It seems however, that after over 15 years, the Independent has removed that article, and the URL now comes up like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-404

Here is what it originally looked like:snowfall-thing-of-the-past

Fortunately, I have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)

One wonders about the timing, whether it is related to the upcoming COP21 climate confab in Paris, or if it was simply some blunder, oversight, or archive purge on the part of The Independent.

Note: I owe a hat tip to a WUWT reader, whose email/comment seems to be lost in the firehose of communications I get daily. If you are reading, leave a note in comments and I’ll correct this.  The reader was Cole Pritchard, who sent the info to my phone via IM, Thanks Cole.


Update: It gets curiouser, searching on The Independent website using their search engine for the phrase “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” yields only one result for that exact string – a story lambasting the original article that contained the phrase.

snowfalls-search-the-independent

Published in the year 2000, I thought maybe the story was just too old, and the Independent simply removed the story to save archive space, or maybe this had to do with some site redesign and the URL simply got broken. Yet when I remove the quote marks to search for the phrase in general, and not exactly, other stories back as far as 1994 about global warming and snow appear:

snowfalls-search-other-articles

It seems clear now that the removal was deliberate.

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Probably after NASA photographs of the icecaps showed once again, that it’s just not happening.

I have a slight OT question about the sea ice. Having seen the spread of the last couple of years for Arctic Ice was the 1979 to 1985 period anomalously high? Are we looking at the wrong end of the telescope?

Gail Combs

Yes.
Read the 1974 CIA report: “A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”
That time period was cold enough that governments were concerned about the food supply and the implications


… Since 1972 the grain crisis has intensified…. Since 1969 the storage of grain has decreased from 600 million metric tons to less than 100 million metric tons – a 30 day supply… many governments have gone to great lengths to hide their agricultural predicaments from other countries as well as from their own people…
pg 9
The archaeologists and climatotologists document a rather grim history… There is considerable evidence that these empires may not have been undone by barbarian invaders but by climatic change…. has tied several of these declines to specific global cool periods, major and minor, that affected global atmospheric circulation and brought wave upon wave of drought to formerly rich agricultural lands.
Refugees from these collapsing civilizations were often able to migrate to better lands… This would be of little comfort however,… The world is too densely populated and politically divided to accommodate mass migration….
The Wisconsin analysis questions whether a return to these climate conditions could support a population that has grown from 1.1 billion in 1850 to 3.75 billion in 1970. The Wisconsin group predicted that the climate could not support the world’s population since technology offers no immediate solution. Further world grain reserves currently amount to less than one month; thus any delay in supplies implies mass starvation. They also contended that new crop strains could not be developed over night… Moreover they observed that agriculture would become even more energy dependent in a world of declining resources.

We may already be in a cooling phase. When doing the work for my article Proof: recent temperature trends are not abnormal there was no evidence for any abnormality in the climate except on a 50-60 year time-scale. This could still be random variation, or it could be a cycle. Since then I’ve seen a couple of indications of a 60 year cycle in data and a strong relationship between AMO and glaciers (again on a 60 year cycle). If true, then the peak of the cycle should have occurred around 2010 and if so, we may see a sharp cooling trend after the El Nino ends (next year).
However, added to that is the sunspot cycle. I’m convinced there’s a connection, but not convinced by some of the wilder claims about the extent of the connection. However, that would suggest cooling as well. Rising CO2, now looks like a very insignificant part of climate and I’m beginning to think changes in forestry and land use are a greater impact even than CO2. These however suggest warming. So, I wouldn’t bet my house on cooling, but if anyone wanted to bet a Mid winter swim in the Forth in Scotland – I might go for it.

Janice Moore

Well HOORAY! So good to see you post, Gail Combs. Just good to know “our” Gail is still out there, still wielding that flashing, bright, sword for truth.
Well, well. That made my day. #(:))

Gloateus Maximus

Yes.
The start year, 1979, was close to the greatest extent of the past century, if not the highest. Might possibly have been higher in 1915-19, but by 1922 the Arctic was melting noticeably.

Janice Moore

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
Found on the WUWT Sea Ice Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
In case anyone reading this might find this bit of sea ice basics helpful:

Sea ice variations have recently attracted much public interest. Part of the reason for this is the high albedo (c. 80%) of sea ice, which reflects much of the incoming solar short-wave radiation during the summer time. If not reflected, this radiation may instead be consumed by warming ocean water, thereby initiating a positive feedback, leading to more warming. This simple analysis however ignores that evaporation will increase from the ocean when the total sea ice cover are reduced in size. Increased evaporation usually results in an increased cloud cover and increased reflectance of incoming solar radiation, which tend to counteract the above process. The decrease or increase of sea ice has no effect on the global sea level.

Professor Ole Humlum
(here: http://climate4you.com/ (if this link goes to Home and not to Sea Ice page, click on Sea Ice on left menu, then click on “Arctic Sea Ice Area and Thickness” — Latest update to site: November 11, 2015)

Eamon Butler

Great to hear from you Gail Combs.

Rational Db8

Note to Anthony & Moderators & everyone else – the “wayback machine” (or “web archive”) can also be used to resurrect pages and even see when they were modified. The Independent snow prediction article is here, for example: http://web.archive.org/web/20150723090103/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html It’s a very handy way to prove beyond doubt not only that a page existed, but exactly what it’s content was at what time frame.
The site shows every single day the page was crawled and archived over years – just click on the “capture” timeline for the year you’re interested in, and a calendar will pop up showing every time it was captured during that year… then click on whichever day you want and the page as it was on that day will come up.

george e. smith

The ability to predict the future for certain, brings with it the necessary information to circumvent the possibility of that future event happening.
Ergo it cannot be possible to predict the future for certain.
g

D.J. Hawkins

“A” does not imply “B”. Consider an ELE-level asteroid detected on a collision course with Earth a year out. We know exactly what’s going to happen and can’t do anything about it.

NOthing to see here…move along, move along.

Goldrider

No more snow? Tell it to the folks in Boston!

Anthony S

Gotta love the fact that you can see the snowpile in Boston on the latest Google imagery update which was done in June.
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.346354,-71.0315357,236m/data=!3m1!1e3

indefatigablefrog

I have the wayback machine address somewhere, saved on a previous post.
I’ll be back in a minute with the wayback archive.
And yes, deleting the article was completely pathetic behaviour.
The commissar vanishes, once again!!!

Manfred

Encore the Wayback Machine! Gives ‘New Age’ meaning to ‘by the sins of your fathers’ you will be judged’.

Aw, c’mon youse guys. You know I wuz jes’ a’spookin’. Git offa my back!

No doubt Tom Bawden is involved … the berk just pushed this garbage out about ££££ billions ££££ in “subsidies for fossil fuels”.
The sooner Boris Berezofsky tires of his increasingly stupid and unhinged dead tree Chihuahua and has it put down the better.

jl

Adding to what you said, and it’s a pet peeve of mine-is that fossil fuel companies (and thousands of other companies) by and large receive tax breaks, not subsidies- though they receive some. They’re two different things, though the media constantly uses the same term for both. A subsidy, by definition, is the government giving money to an individual or company so as to become viable. A tax break let’s you keep more of what was already yours- nobody is “giving” anything to anybody. Solar and wind receive “subsides”, which is money from the government. Fossil fuel (and you and I) receive mostly tax breaks.

NW sage

I’m afraid you don’t understand – the government’s position is that ALL money is theirs by definition. ANY part they let you keep is therefore a subsidy!! This applies to more than just companies.

JL as a farmer I represent(sic) that. Much of what is called “subsidies” is depreciation allowances. In years past, you may have heard of “sinking funds” which were intended to allow a person to replace equipment as it wore out. People who use “equipment” to earn income are allowed to depreciate the equipment at rates given by government mandate on the basis that it has a declining value because of time and use. Oil companies are also allowed to depreciate their reservoirs as they are used up and their “assets” decline. That isn’t a subsidy. If you were doing a “cash” business, you would subtract the whole of your asset purchases in the year of purchase offsetting your Income, perhaps making it negative. But government doesn’t like that so they set rules for depreciation along with Generally Accepted Accounting Practices (GAAP) though Tax rules and GAAP rules do not always go together resulting in two sets of income statements, one for Tax, and one for GAAP. Not usually an issue for individuals or small companies but corporations must be aware of the rules and differences.
With resource industries it can be a bit more complicated than the above, but that is the general idea.
The media and small activists generally don’t get it (or pretend they don’t) though the people running big greens most certainly do.

usurbrain

You are ignoring that the value they declare the property for becomes a base that the city, county, state etc. can tax them for. Kind of hard to declare that it is not worth that much when they use that for its value for there tax write off. Thus YOU pay les city, county, state property taxes.
Further, regardless of what the taxes are – YOU, the CONSUMER always pay the taxes. PERIOD. you may think they pay the taxes BUT YOU are giving them the money to pay the taxes. Why do so many people have trouble understanding that extremely simple fact.

George Tetley

You think yo have problems !! Here in Germany having worked until 65 years and paid taxes all my life, I find now I must pay taxes at a higher rate on my government pension,

Reality Observer

Those tax breaks are also the same as those for any other primary resource extraction business. Whether it’s “evil oil” or “good germanium” they are the same thing.
When you go the route of these people – well, just how much is the government “subsidizing” GE by letting them take depreciation for their wind turbine manufacturing equipment? Or the wind farms depreciating those turbines once they are installed? Let’s eliminate those “subsidies” too, eh?

MarkW

Reminds me of the way people used to whine about tax loop holes.
Turns out that the definition of a loop hole was “a tax deduction that I don’t qualify for”.

Wonderful, illuminating thread of comments starting with jl’s first at 5:18. As my youngest might have said fifteen years ago, WUWT readers ROCK!

Gregg C.

NW sage is correct. In government circles ‘tax expenditures’ is a phrase for all the money that individuals keep after taxes. The going-in position is ALL of the money is theirs to start with.

Sparky

If you have the URL then web.archive.org can help you out. The internet is forever. This friendly site has captured a copy of this page 107 times between 30 Dec 2009 and 5 Nov 2015. You can see them here: http://web.archive.org/web/20100209052939/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Don K

I found a copy without much trouble at the https://archive.org/: Regretably link-rot is a pretty common phenomenon. A lot of it appears to be unintentional. And, worse, some sites aren’t archived by the internet archive site because of the robots.txt file or other issues. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Link_rot Overall, dead-links are so common that it’s had to ascribe any given broken link to malice.

LInk rot is, as you say, common. I have written some 15 climate articles and none of the earlier ones still have 100% of their links remaining. I suspect this is such an occurrence or just a housekeeping matter.
The original story did get a little distorted in the telling and sceptics and alarmists alike have had their own take on the matter.
Desmogblog gave their version of events here, quoting a delingpole article into the bargain.
Worth reading
http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/04/04/climate-science-denier-james-delingpole-calls-alarmists-face-court-death-penalty-powers
However, there is a wider story here which is that regular snowfall is not a common occurrence in lowland Britain, although more common in the North of the country and East Anglia (where CRU is located) The image of snowy winters is largely an artefact of folk memories of the harsh conditions of the intermittent little ice age. Charles Dickens’ formative years were in such a cold period and some years ago I wrote a tongue in cheek article that highlighted the actual lack of snow-especially around Christmas. It is here and was entitled
“Has Charles Dickens shaped our perception of climate change?
Charles Dickens. Victorian winters. A Christmas Carol. Ice fairs on the Frozen Thames. Cold Cold Cold Cold Cold. Dickens has irrevocably moulded the climate views of generations of Anglo Saxon peoples as TV, Films and plays all promote his image of icy winters in that era. Is this view of Dickens winters correct? We take a look at his life through the prism of climate.
https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/bah-humbug/
——- ——- ——-
So Did David Viner say something that seems to have been distorted in time? Yes, probably. Has snow been such a frequent occurrence in lowland Britain, that its demise is worthy of especial note. No. Other than during periodic harsh spells, snow events come and go and were especially lacking in modern times during the 1930’s and 1940’s
tonyb

rah

David Viner didn’t qualify his statement at all. He didn’t say a thing about the children of “lowland Britain” not knowing what snow was. He said ………..”within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event. …….Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,”………
And even the children of “lowland Britiain” have seen snow according to the met.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/snow-in-the-uk

rah
Of course most children have seen snow. My point was that it is not and has never been a frequent occurrence in Britain other than during the extreme periods of the LIA.
tonyb

WalterF

“Children just aren’t going to know what a snowjob is,”

Gunga Din

😎
(But, unfortunately, if their parents don’t teach them how to reason, they may not recognize one. Education seems to be geared more and more toward having the kids welcome them.)

indefatigablefrog

Here’s the wayback machine address. I happened to notice the absence earlier in the year.
The page had become a shrine for people to comment on the idiocy of failed predictions about the weather.
People would flock to it every time that they experienced heavy snow:
http://web.archive.org/web/20150114205355/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Failed predictions are rapidly vanishing from internet servers.
Soon failed predictions will be a thing of the past.
Children just aren’t going to know what failed predictions are.

indefatigablefrog

Ha ha – dontcha just love wayback machine. BUSTED!!!!

Janice Moore

Way — to — go, Indefatigable Frog! #(:))
And, Anthony!

confusedphoton

“Failed predictions are rapidly vanishing from internet servers”
If failed predictions vanish, there will not be any climate “science” left on the internet!
Climate “scientists” will be a thing of the past.

indefatigablefrog

And then what would we do?
I mean, I’m not joking.
What would we all do…
for laughs?

emsnews

1984 all over again.

Felflames

It is basically impossible to “disappear ” something from the internet.
Once you put it out there , it will be there forever.
And will usually come back to bite you at a most inconvenient time.
Oh and Streisand Effect

Billy Liar

Individuals, in European Law, have the ‘right to be forgotten’. This is implemented by search engines failing to return results from pages the individual wishes to be removed. The content remains but you have to know the URL to find it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_be_forgotten
This is not what has happened in this case but many people have used this right.

The Right to be Forgotten law is well post this issue, so would not be affected by it.

Sandy In Limousin

You can have any information no matter how old “forgotten” as far as I understand the ruling.

“Forgotten” is perhaps not the best word; Lost or Not Found are a better description. You cannot (I don’t think) have stuff removed from the web, just that search engines are not allowed to provide links to it.

rah

Perhaps Hitlers family should demand that “right”? Why not call it what it is. A tool for revisionism history.

Gunga Din

A blunder is no longer a blunder after it’s been properly adjusted erased.
(I hope TheWayBackMachine has been backed up!)

Peter Sable

(I hope TheWayBackMachine has been backed up!)
The content owner can demand that the WayBack machine delete its copies. I’ve seen this done before.
We need a “Real” Wayback machine where you cannot delete embarrassing predictions. Perhaps Anthony should add a whole page with cached links.
Peter

JimS

URL’s are like temperature data, they can be adjusted. Part of the adjustment process is elimination of data.

Bear in mind that items archived in the Wayback Machine can indeed be deleted if requested by the owner.

indefatigablefrog

It’s too late. This already looks like stage-managing of the “official reality”, in the Soviet style.
The best policy would have been to leave the page, as a symbol of an age of monstrous delusions.
Now, it looks like they tried to make it go away.
Independent – my arse!!!!

noaaprogrammer

“Bear in mind that items archived in the Wayback Machine can indeed be deleted if requested by the owner.” So should Hillary have archived her files on the Wayback Machine? 🙂

indefatigablefrog

Here’s a topical satirical page on the subject of the disappearing of inconvenient and politically embarrassing science:
http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/nasa-announces-manned-mission-to-mercury-t17146.html

Janice Moore

Thus, the Envirostalinist-sympathetic Independent, places itself, once again, in the classiest of company.
Here’s how two of the Windmill and Solar Profiteers’ Top 10 Most Admired People did it:
“… extreme regimes” and erasing history

(youtube)

Janice Moore

Not to be overlooked are ##’s 9 and 10 on the list, Nixon and Trudeau.
May 11, 1973 (from Nixon tapes)

“We politicians gotta stick together.”
Congratulations, Independent! YOU are part of the elite!

Janice Moore

And then, there’s NOAA and NASA (GISS)
Data Tampering

John Coleman, KUSI News
(youtube)

Janice Moore

Specifically: NCDC (National Climate Data Center) — from Coleman report above.

Trying to find that Modis satellite photo of all of Brittan covered in snow. Who has that?

PaulH

Funny, I thought companies with a web presence want to drive more visitors to their web site.
/snark

This stuff has been going on for some time. For US centric readers, look at the (now erased except on Wayback) climate difference by state between the previous NOAA (2013) Drd964x and the ‘new, improved’ 2014 nClimDiv. The archived before and afters for three states — California, Michigan, and Maine — plus the aggregate statistics are provided as just one small part of this issue in essay When Data Isn’t in my newest ebook. There is much more referenced evidence in that essay globally, all equally damning. Sulina? de Bilt? Rutherglen? BEST station 166900 (ok, that one only in footnote 24 to make a separate methodological error point to Mosher and friends, so you all can skip it at your peril — since tracking footnotes is not blog fun).

Maybe Congress will fix the NOAA data games.
This is political hardball, not science.

Max Totten

Found similar in EPA study where it showed no change in heating and cooling days in last 100+ years. Data remained in the report but shrunk to where it couldn’t be read. When I tried to print the specific pages ie asked for page 54 that was the only page that could not be printed. EPA thought that historic data would support their warming crap and when I found it I printed it Quickly before they could delete it. Instead of deleting they buried it in a report where I couldn’t print a new copy. Still may be available at Dept of Energy Information but not from EPA.
Max

commieBob

From the disappeared article:

… the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote … “stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying”. …

Stealthily and loosely lying indeed.

BLACK PEARL

Maybe they need to be reminded with a few hundred emails of that pdf of what they’ve lost / miss placed 🙂

Dermot O'Logical

OK – some reviewing of Google cached documents found a sitemap archive here:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:7Y32nLOU_10J:www.independent.co.uk/independent.co.uk/sitemap/sitemap_200003.xml.gz+&cd=13&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=fr
It is seemingly a list of articles published March 2000 (which matches filename “sitemap” “2000” “03”.xml) with urls of each.
Every link (twenty or so) I’ve tried in that list is reporting 404 Not Found, so I think it’s less Conspiracy, more like C*ck Up, given that older articles still exist.

lee

Perhaps an email titled “Have you lost this”, please call xxxxxx

Janice Moore

lol

Rico L

I am waiting for the NOAA / NASA publication that declares water is now freezing at +2degC due to climate change, so there is still snow and ice, but it is warmer snow and ice!

czechlist

“Snow” is CO2 molecules which identify as H2O molecules and truly believe they freeze at a higher temperature.
Gotta get with the times !!

Rotten ice. Tsk. Tsk. Just not like the old ice.

RD

Well done holding the crapweasels to account!

Dermot O'Logical

Mods – sorry if this is a repost – original appears to have gone awry.
I have found on Google cache a collection of sitemap.xml files, broken down by year and month e.g. for March 2003:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:7Y32nLOU_10J:www.independent.co.uk/independent.co.uk/sitemap/sitemap_200003.xml.gz+&cd=13&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=fr
It appears to list urls of all the articles, including the Snowfall article in question. Every link I have tried from that list is coming up “Not found”.
Furthermore, more sitemaps can be found with this query:
site:www.independent.co.uk sitemap 1999
Now, trying August 1999 – file 199908 – all these come up, but all datestamps on the pages themselves are October 23 2011, so I reckon there’s some archiving/republication happened there.
Anyways, it’s all of March 2000 that’s missing at the moment, and January 2003, and November 2005.
So, more a bulk purge, perhaps reformatting old articles?

Dermot O'Logical

Edit – e.g. for March 2000 (not March 2003)

Hi Anthony,
It was I who sent you the message via facebook. Could you credit it to our page, “Climate Change Lies?”
https://www.facebook.com/ClimateChangeLIES/
Regards,
Cole

Janice Moore

Thank you, Cole Pritchard, for bringing this to all our attention (and for Anthony for publishing based on your tip!).

indefatigablefrog

Here it is on a WUWT thread:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/18/global-warming-blamed-for-mystery-kidney-disease/#comment-2052017
It’s like deja vu, all over again.
But, frankly we just cannot mention this enough.
Let’s keep bringing it up.
The alarmist community clearly have severe memory loss and need to be constantly reminded that they keep getting everything wrong!!! 🙂

RD

Thanks Cole for putting up the good fight. No doubt your page will be censored and/or disappeared by Facebook, I fear.

TonyL

Really, everybody. It seems hardly likely they are attempting to cover up a blunder after 15 years.
Some routine IT housekeeping seems more likely.

Janice Moore

Oh, I don’t think so, Miss Mellie (although your generous spirit is admirable).
I think the Enviroprofiteers (wind and solar industry, mostly) are just desperate to rehabilitate their “expert” witness’ credibility, here.
After all, you can’t have your
“principal advisor for climate change”** known for being one of the biggest ignoramuses in The United Kingdom…
** Mott MacDonald has appointed Dr David Viner as principal advisor for climate change. An internationally recognised expert, David brings with him 20 years of experience working in the area of climate change. …
Mott MacDonald’s environment manager Ian Allison said: “We are delighted to welcome David to Mott MacDonald. Sustainability and climate change are important drivers for our business… .” {<– lol, indeed:
"Harnessing wind energy through developing onshore and offshore wind farms is a major area where we have a particularly strong track record." Source: https://www.mottmac.com/industry/industrial-infrastructure . }
Source: https://www.mottmac.com/article/614/mott-macdonald-appoints-dr-david-viner-as-pri

Janice Moore

Just follow the money (Viner, “expert,” still hustling for Mott MacDonald as of December, 2014):
“Dr David Viner from Mott MacDonald says that the hydropower industry cannot ignore climate change. In order for hydropower schemes to be climate resilient over their entire planned lifetime, he says that climate change needs to be at the forefront of design, feasibility, construction, operation and maintenance.”
Source: http://www.waterpowermagazine.com/opinion/opinionmaking-hydropower-resilient-to-climate-change-4462635/

Janice Moore

And here, on August 12, 2015,
is David Viner in a more subtle role using Linked In to push Mott MacDonald’s “important drivers for our business [, sustainability and climate change]” (Ian Allison, Mott MacDonald in my comment at 5:59pm today):
“I need you help to give your views on the Climatescope online tool … Mott MacDonald is undertaking a survey … Climatescope is a global index aimed at helping private sector developers, their consultants, governments and research bodies decide where to invest in Clean energy … .”
By David Viner
Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/survey-climatescope-clean-energy-investment-tool-david-viner?articleId=6037208072106053632
**************************
Conclusion: Mott MacDonald’s “expert” is undergoing preventive maintenance.

richard verney

Perhaps someone should write to The Independent and ask them about their IT housekeeping policy.
Have all stories older than 15 years been deleted.? Or is the deletion of articles selective, and if so what forms the selection process?

Janice Moore

Published in the year 2000, I thought maybe the story was just too old, and the Independent simply removed the story to save archive space, or maybe this had to do with some site redesign and the URL simply got broken. Yet when I remove the quote marks to search for the phrase in general, and not exactly, other stories back as far as 1994 about global warming and snow appear: …
(from above-posted article by Anthony Watts)
Appears to selective.

Janice Moore

Appears to be selective.

richard verney

Janice
Since this is not a scientific article, I only quickly scanned it, and obviously missed the reference of back to 1994. At first glance, the deletion therefore appears to be part of some selective process as you suggest.

Janice Moore

Dear Richard Verney,
I hope you realize that I was only informing you, not trying to cast aspersions on your intelligence. Your fine mind has repeatedly demonstrated on WUWT that you are a fine information analyst. If my tone was offensive, please forgive me. Remember, others likely scanned the article quickly and missed that information, also, so, your comment ended up helping others, too!
If you are in Scotland, in that snowstorm, keep warm and add an extra pat of butter to your oatmeal in the morning 🙂 (i.e., fat = warm). And two extra spoonfuls of brown sugar! <– ONLY because it tastes good….!
#(:))
Take care,
Janice

ralfellis

>>It seems hardly likely they are attempting to
>>cover up a blunder after 15 years.
It may well be that Independent staff had forgotten all about it. if you inhabit Warmist Fantasist sites, and never read the Climate Realist sites, you may never have seen this article for years. It is more likely that someone at the Independent inadvertently dialed into WUWT, and was shocked by what heshe saw.
R

Gary Pearse

TonyL, you are a nice guy. But, you know, this children not ever seeing snow again is, I would say, an iconic representation of the hysterics of CAGW proponents that will live on in the future. It will be a cautionary tale for future development of science and science teaching. It will rank up there with the ‘black swan’. It will become a metaphor for the whole debacle of this 30yr (plus, perhaps another 5yrs) period. The ‘disappearing’ itself, which shows that the Independent is having a tougher time cleaving to the narrative and doesn’t want to have such an iconic blunder under it’s name, will ironically highlight it and cement it into the history of shocking times. Is Viner still publishing stuff? I suspect he has either greatly reduced or stopped his output or piled the old stuff under hundreds of more recent, more thoughful papers.

indefatigablefrog

Meanwhile new daft predictions are popping up every day. Like this one from Nature:
“The results provide a clear, stark message: if we assume that the Amundsen Glacier is indeed destabilized, which current evidence suggests, then the entire Western ice sheet will discharge into the ocean within 3000 years, leading to a 3 meter rise in sea level within 10,000 years. This extreme loss is due to a ‘point-of-no-return’ scenario: once the grounding line begins retreating, ice will continue to melt inland, allowing water to carve a path inward until it breaks off the whole western sheet.
It is true that this process unfolds over a very long time period, giving us plenty of time to respond if this scenario does occur. But the world would look quite different. In the US alone, 12.3 million people would lose their homes.”
12.3million people who currently live in coastal areas will lose their homes in 10,000 years.
So this is Nature? A journal which prints material which is so embarrassingly idiotic that I couldn’t create a satire that was more bizarrely stupid than the original.
Do people now enter climate science direct from Kindergarten?
From: http://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/eyes-on-environment/shortterm_stability_and_longterm_collapse

jorgekafkazar

“Do people now enter climate science direct from Kindergarten?”
No. 77 out of 79 climate specialists enter direct from their local mental institution.

In Nature’s defense, this looks like a blog rather than part of the journal itself, I’m not sure blogs are refereed at all.
But it’s still a great find. I loved the part about the model being “complicated”. I used to do a fair amount of computer modeling (as have many folks who visit this site apparently). It never ceases to amaze me that climate researchers treat their models as reality or that casual readers of articles like this one seem happy to suspend disbelief while reading them. I suppose people like to read disaster stories, who would be intrigued to discover the latest climate models suggest everything’s going to be peachy for the foreseeable future? Doesn’t make good diner conversation.

indefatigablefrog

We had to wait only one day for a real disaster. The imaginary 10,000 year event discusses here seems somehow even more non-existent than yesterday.
I must stop looking at this rubbish.
I feel that fools are wasting my time. 🙂

Well, this story is still up:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-row-scientist-contemplated-suicide-1892260.html
It’s about Phil Jones and his problems and thoughts of suicide from dealing with Climategate.
It’s hard to feel too sympathetic with him since he wrote in http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/1/FOIA/mail/1075403821.txt on the sudden death of skeptic John Daly:

From: Phil Jones <...@uea.ac.uk>
To: <Michael Mann> ...@virginia.edu
Subject: Fwd: John L. Daly dead
Date: Thu Jan 29 14:17:01 2004
     From: Timo Hämeranta <...@pp.inet.fi>
     To: <...@pp.inet.fi>
     Subject: John L. Daly dead
     Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2004 12:04:28 +0200
     X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.4510
     Importance: Normal
    Mike,
       In an odd way this is cheering news !  One other thing about the CC paper - just found
    another email - is that McKittrick says it is standard practice in Econometrics journals
    to give all the data and codes !!  According to legal advice IPR overrides this.
    Cheers
    Phil
     "It is with deep sadness that the Daly Family have to announce the sudden death of John
     Daly.Condolences may be sent to John's email account (daly@john-daly.com)
     "
     Reported with great sadness
     Timo Hämeranta
     xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Evan Jones

Well, I read the entire thing. It is wrong about the snow. It is wrong about the 0.2C/decade. It is roughly right about the +0.6C warming. It is correct that AGW is manifesting itself primarily in the winter. The sensationalization gets it a downcheck.-
I therefore give it a D. A middle-of-the-road D.

clipe

So who are we to believe? For a final word, I turned to the greatest climate change scientist of all, Dr David Viner, one-time senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, who predicted in 2000 that, within a few years, winter snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event”.
However, he was trapped under a glacier in Stockport, so was unable to comment at the time the Telegraph went to press.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/

jorgekafkazar

The “big scary words” article is a classic. A brief excerpt:
“I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous ‘ghost stick’, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
‘Here come de heap big warmy….'”
Follow clipe’s link for the rest.

D.J. Hawkins

Not right now, thanks. I’m eating lunch, and forcibly ejecting a ham and cheese sandwich via my nostrils is not on my bucket list. Later, when oxygen is available for recovery from uncontrollable laughter.

Evan Jones

Oh I’m bound to go
Where there ain’t no snow
Where the rain don’t fall
The winds don’t blow
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains.

He was describing his version of paradise, come to think of it.

Is he still alive? It’s time to rub it in his face if he is.

Janice Moore

“Page not found ….
Sorry … .”
Right.

The change old temperature data, so why not old articles?

Every time it snowed where I live I would take a picture and tweet it along with a link to “Snow Is A Thing of the Past”.
( @protonice )
I should take a picture of todays rain and tweet it along with a link to “Dry Weather Today is a pimple Compared to the Dry Weather we are going to get”, published a few months ago in The Vancouver Sun.

Gary – LOL. Yes 2015 had a dastardly dry summer, a dastardly wet fall. SNAFU. When I went to UBC from the dry interior in 1966, my car didn’t dry out for 8 months (ie when I left Vancouver and went back to the interior). That fall set the record at the time for continuous days of rainfall.

Well, I missed that weather by one year as I moved to the Vancouver region the following year, Halloween 1967. Summers have always been hot and dry and in fact it was May of this year that was the driest on record that isn’t even a summer month, and the record of 51 or 54 days without rain was not broken this year.
This morning the rainfall since Sept 1 has been 355 mm while the average is 300 mm. I highly doubt that next may will be even near as dry as this past may.
Last October (2014) give or take a month saw 150 mm instead of the average 100 mm, but none of the alarmist reports about the dry weather mentioned this and instead cherry picked months.
The dry weather was hyped by alarmists hear as being a result of climate change.
The wind storm on the last weekend of August, that wasn’t even predicted half an hour before it occurred has been hyped by alarmists :
“Although the windstorm is now over, the freshly battered Metro Vancouver’s situation has been suggested to be a sign of worse weather to come. Climate change scientists have been asserting that more extreme weather like this will become commonplace if the global warming continues without sufficient regulation,” — The Peak – Student Newspaper of Simon Fraser, September 8, 2015, page 5.
Note, the temperatures were below normal during the wind storm compared to the wind storm of 2006 where Stephen Hume wrote about the 68% above normal temperatures using his special Celsius physics. No mention what the temperatures were during the great wind storm of 1934 in this region.

I forgot to mention, just a couple of years ago or so during a cold wet spring it was declared that this is the weather climate scientists say will be the new norm. This would wreck havoc with our tourism industry so it was written. No mater the weather, wet or dry, it’s climate changes fault, and these declarations also don’t re-appear when the predictions don’t pan out.
Note, I wrote hear above when I meant here. knotty me, I should have read what I wrote before submitting. I have been having trouble sleeping since Turdeau has been anointed king of Canada and now I hear Dion stating that climate change is to be the top concern of all the cabinet ministers of the land. Sickening.

Severing

Aaaaand down the Memory Hole it goes! Thank you Winston, now quick, off to the Two Minutes Hate with you! Time to hiss at Emannuel Koch.

indefatigablefrog

As a disclaimer – I don’t really care all that much whether the Independent did this on purpose.
I just like drawing lots of attention to how completely stupid the media, media “experts”.
And attention to the fact that looney alarmist predictions are invariably further from reality than a random guess. The nitwits have learned though, I suppose. Inasmuch as they now couch alarmism in vague and often meaningless conditional terms. They only make solid prediction about events that will NOT occur after their retirement or death.
The odd idiot breaks free from the climate alarm asylum and further empties his mind in the presence of a journalist. In which case we get to witness the joyous spectacle of a once proud believer losing his marbles.
As has now happened with poor Mr Viner.
(I have removed his title – for his own benefit!! It was only doing him harm.)

Billy Liar

The odd idiot breaks free from the climate alarm asylum and further empties his mind in the presence of a journalist. In which case we get to witness the joyous spectacle of a once proud believer losing his marbles.
I see what you did there! You’re referring to Professor ‘Arctic will be ice free in 2015’ Peter Wadhams aren’t you?

indefatigablefrog
D.I.

It’s called ‘Climastrology’,in the past we had ‘Spiritualism’ ‘tea leave readers’ ‘seances’ ‘astrologists’ ‘ouija board readers’ ‘tarot card readers’ all sucking money from the gulible,
It seems that Governments have seen the potential for sucking money from the ‘Gulible’ and gone along with ‘Climastrology’.
In the future people will look back and laugh at the stupidity of people paying for ‘Climastrological’ predictions.

I suspect as the scheme implodes and members of the Cult of Calamitous Climate are deprogrammed by cold weather and angry impoverished taxpayers.
The records of their gullibility here on the internet will come under serious attack.
The US Democrats are already on the record wanting to control(regulate) the web and so is the UN.
Strange how people who campaign for immunity from prosecution also want to control the history.

noaaprogrammer

Someone needs to write a book titled, “2084,” about Climatism.

I don’t know if there is any deliberate action being taken here, but that’s not, IMHO, what we should be discussing. What we should be discussing is how to preserve the original article for easy reference now that the original is gone. I know A_thony linked to his copy in this article, but at some future point, I’ll forget where that was. Future being about 48 hours for me…..
Perhaps a special link in the WUWT sidebar?

Bill H

Disappearing Failed Climate Predictions..
‘If your doom and gloom predictions fail to materialize, we will make them go away and restore your credibility..’
Sounds like a dang RON.CO commercial.. For just 49.99 we will make your past failed predictions Viner! (Oh wait.. that should say ‘VANISH’… my bad 🙂
Welcome to the New World Order.. Ignore those failed predictions behind the curtain….
Nothing that is happening prior to Paris is surprising me and I set that bar very low. Makes me wonder if Viner is giving a speech?

Tucci78

Ah, the Internet.
Once it goes up, guys, you ain’t never getting it suppressed.

Earlier this summer, a group of “scientists” led by a couple of US government employees, published an utterly fraudulent paper which, in effect, erased the decline in global surface temperatures. They did this by the rather elegant method of simply changing the recorded temperatures to something else.

This is just another example of the utter lawlessness that has infected the Executive Branch agencies under Barack Obama. The only exception to providing agency documents to the Congress is executive privilege. There is no special privilege available for the political hacks masquerading as scientists in NOAA. This has been hashed out thoroughly since Watergate. The only question is whether Smith, as a committee chairman, can make his demand stick. The agency is refusing Smith’s request for one reason: they know this action they have taken is in support of Obama’s political agenda.

The more we know about how NOAA, and the climate change (snip) funded by NOAA, operate the more it is apparent that the entire field is fraudulent up to its myopic eyeballs and exists solely to suck cash out of the federal government and to arrogate power and importance to a lot of very little and inconsequential men whose inadequate personal lives make them want to lord it over the rest of us.

— streif “Climate science frauds try to hide data from Congress” (31 October 2015)

Janice Moore

Yes! Indeed! Nice example, Tucci.
Oh, I just can’t help myself….

Tucci-co, Tucci-co, TUUUUUUUUcci-co!

(inspired by:
“Figaro” — Luciano Pavarotti

(youtube))
#(:))
(just a little comedia relief)
Personally…
I’d rather be discussing “Figaro” than Viner any — day.
Okay, okay, OKAAAAAAAAAAAAY.
Back to science.
~[:|]

Mike the Morlock

Janice
Thank you. made my day.
michael

Janice Moore

Oh, THANK YOU, Mike (who is most certainly not a) Morlock. That Tucci — NEVER acknowledges my attempts to have a little fun with him. How nice of you to take the time.
Heh. Glad you got a smile out of that.
#(:))

Tucci78

Accidenti!
(The first word spoken in The Barber of Seville, and naturally the first word taught to us Italian-American parochial school kids when we were brought to a performance of that opera.)

Mike the Morlock

I woke up last night with a wicked idea. I thought wouldn’t it be fun to start a rumor about the Paris shindig? I mean, well since they don’t like “new ice” and don’t think it’s as good as old ice, why not put out a story that the organizers are importing ancient ice for the delegate’s mixed drinks. Their standing in the pecking order at the conference would reflect which geological era their ice came from. All sorts of stories as intrigues could and would take on a life of their own. Sigh I laughed until my sides hurt.
Since I retired I fear I have to much free time.
michael

Tucci78

Setting aside his feast of Eloi tartare, Mike the Morlock suggests:

I woke up last night with a wicked idea. I thought wouldn’t it be fun to start a rumor about the Paris shindig. I mean, well, since they don’t like “new ice” and don’t think it’s as good as old ice, why not put out a story that the organizers are importing ancient ice for the delegate’s mixed drinks. Their standing in the pecking order at the conference would reflect which geological era their ice came from. All sorts of stories as intrigues could and would take on a life of their own.

There is, of course, merit in this. Better yet, let us connive to deliver these quanta of “ancient ice” to the conference, carefully labeled.
D’you think Penn Jillette might like to get in on this gentle jest?

It’s a pretty stark analysis, and not without merit. There are plenty of climate change scientists who are equally forthright on the possibilities of change, or no change, and of more hot, or less hot, or of rain, or no rain, or of Britain turning into the Sahara by next weekend, or instead becoming a freezing cold Frostyworld ruled by a strange, glistening ice-queen – crucially, it all depends on the time of day you ask them, and whether or not they had asparagus the day before.
So who are we to believe? For a final word, I turned to the greatest climate change scientist of all, Dr David Viner, one-time senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, who predicted in 2000 that, within a few years, winter snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event”.
However, he was trapped under a glacier in Stockport, so was unable to comment at the time the Telegraph went to press.

— Sean Thomas “When it comes to climate change, we have to trust our scientists, because they know lots of big scary words” (19 June 2013)

Janice Moore

Accidenti! ???!
How do you mean this, Mr. Tucci? As in: “Che accidenti state facendo, you annoying woman??”
or “Accidenti, che bella comment!” ???
Well, thank you, at least, for taking the time to acknowledge it.

Tucci78

Writes Janice Moore:

Accidenti! ???!

Sheesh. Y’know, you’re on the Web right now. They’ve got “search engines” ‘n everything.
From Wiktionary:

Interjection
accidenti!
(in anger) Damn it! etc
(in amazement) Good heavens! etc
wow

Italian-Americans of my generation grew up hearing it from our grandparents all the time, which is why it got laughs from those of us who were field-trip’d to see performances of Il barbiere di Siviglia in parochial school.

Janice Moore

I noticed, Dr. Tucci……
that you NEVER ANSWERED MY QUESTION.
I think your answer is adding up to, essentially: “Sheesh!”
So, I take that back. Got my answer 🙂

Tucci78

Janice Moore writes:

I noticed, Dr. Tucci……
that you NEVER ANSWERED MY QUESTION.

Not much of a question, Ms. Moore. Recall that you started this with your “TUUUUUUUUcci-co!” silliness (plainly not realizing that a “-co” word ending in such a context is not Italianate; more appropriate would’ve been “Tucci-o!” [employing the suffix “-uccio” meaning “small” or “little”] in emulation of the aria’s repeated call of “Figaro!”).
I replied – in clever parsimony – with the first word spoken in that opera buffa – which carries with it the connotation in the American language:
“Damn!”

Driving truckloads of money out into the New Mexico desert and dumping it into a massive pit is one of America’s greatest traditions.

— Dave Barrodale (Onion News Network Analyst)

Janice Moore

Dear Dr. Tucci,
I did not use the plain “o” suffix because I did not want to imply at all that you are a small man. To be perfectly candid, no, I was, indeed, ignorant of Italian, there — my conscious intent was simply to get a better rhyme parallel with Figaro, but used “c” instead of “g.”
Next time…. I will merrily sing out:

TUUUUUUUcci — go!!

I think I may have offended you and I regret that. I hope that you can forgive my having fun in such a silly way. We are ALLIES, you know! 🙂
Thank you for the education.
Janice

John F. Hultquist

A. W. wrote: “>i>One wonders about the timing, whether it is related to …” etc.
The timing could be related to the fact that it is snowing – in Kansas, Colorado, Washington State, British Columbia, and ….
David Viner likely meant East Anglia but I don’t recall that was specified.

Janice Moore

Nice observation. (and lol)
Keep warm, John (and Nancy).
— and don’t feel bad about the italics deal…. you just made those of us who have ALSO done that kind of thing feel much better 🙂

John F. Hultquist

Hi, Janice.
Missed the bracket. Not the first time.
Years ago there were many comments where the person (maybe me) would fail to close the italics or bold and that might carry through for many of the following comments. The mods would usually fix it after letting us know what klutzes we were. Haven’t seen such in a long time so I guess that is automated now.
Can a blame it on being worn out?
I cut and split a bit of firewood for a needy neighbor today — wanting to get it under cover before the storm (now over the Strait of Juan de Fuca with rain reaching the Cascade Crest) gets here. Then I did my own chores and fixed supper. Nancy was doing a music thing (fiddle) with others at a rehab place. Only then did a check to see what was up here.
Best to you and anyone getting rain, snow, or cold tonight.

Janice Moore

Dear John Hultquist,
What a guy. Thanks for chatting a little bit. My family and friends (in the Seattle –> Bellingham area) were a bit anxious yesterday about the storm headed their way. I hope that it blew itself out over the straits and wasn’t as bad as feared.
Take care and keep on fiddlin’!
Janice
P.S. I quoted your encouragement to me, a non-scientist, rather shy (oh, boy, THAT sure changed, heh) of commenting on WUWT, “You know things. Share.” with Monna Manhas who has been here awhile, but is quite reticent (so should LOTS of people, here). You see what a fine difference you make? Even the small things…. the ripples spread on and on. 🙂

indefatigablefrog

I live in Somerset, England. And we have had numerous winters of astonishingly deep and beautiful snowfall. Some of the heaviest snowfalls I have ever seen have been in the last few years.
I have measured -17degC on one night. There was ice on the inside of my front door!!
There ain’t no – end of snow!!

Stoic

“Who controls the past controls the future; who controls the present controls the past.” Ingsoc (Newspeak for English Socialism or the English Socialist Party) is the political ideology of the totalitarian government of Oceania in George Orwell’s dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four.

Curious George

Our blunder? Let bygones be bygones.
(Signed) 97%

pat

11 Nov: LA Times: ‘Everything is blinding white’: Huge Sierra snowstorm pays off for winter resorts
By Joseph Serna and Bettina Boxall
A massive storm that dropped snow across hundreds of miles of the Sierra Nevada is paying dividends for winter resorts, if social media is any indicator.
From Lake Tahoe and Mt. Rose to Mammoth Mountain, vacation destinations have taken to Twitter to boast that their slopes are ready for visitors…
http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-snow-storm-sierra-20151111-story.html

indefatigablefrog

The second article on this topic in the Independent in 2011 simply made the situation worse.
By misrepresenting the first article.
They really are trying to desperately stage manage the interpretation of their own failure:
http://www.thegwpf.com/ministry-of-truth-independent-newspaper-channels-orwell/

indefatigablefrog

And a more in depth analysis of the situation is here.
Take the time to re-read the original March 2000 Viner article and then the 2011 Conner manipulation.
Lying liars and the lies they tell. Shameful and desperate stuff:
http://www.thegwpf.com/met-office-spins-itself-deeper-into-the-hole/

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia.

We have one of those false prophets in Australia, called Tim Flannery. The socialists haven’t erased it from memory yet
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/tim_flannery_should_explain_these_full_dams/

Louis

I’ve heard of snow removal, but this is the first time I’ve ever heard of anyone feeling the need to remove the absence of snow.

michael hart

I used to buy The Independent for many years, from the first day it was published.
It gives me no (net) pleasure to read this account of their fall. Like the BBC, they shall reap what they have sown.