Every once in awhile California gets a “Pineapple Express” this is more like an El Niño express as the source of this moisture river extends all the way across the Pacific to the Phillipines, near the “warm pool” area that gets created by an El Niño event.
Source: http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GFSW
Latest Forecast synopis:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 854 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016 .Synopsis... Light to moderate precipitation will arrive later today. A strong storm then arrives Saturday with heavy mountain snow, local flooding, and potential for strong and damaging Valley winds. More weather systems are expected Sunday, Monday, and late next week. && .Discussion... Mostly cloudy skies prevail across much of the region as a very moist airmass takes aim at the West Coast. A few light showers are being detected on radar this morning, but aren`t amounting to much impact. Short-range guidance (the HRRR and ARW) suggest the potential for some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Instability will likely be somewhat limited by extensive cloud cover, and so we don`t currently expect anything organized to develop today. Light to moderate precipitation will continue tonight into Saturday before the next, much stronger system arrives. Precipitation should begin to pick up substantially in the afternoon and continue through the evening hours. Urban and small stream flooding will be possible across much of the region, and depending on precipitation rates we could also see debris flows across recently burned areas. A big concern will be the wind forecast with this system. Forecast southerly pressure gradients increase to roughly 8mb between KSAC-KRDD, a fairly impressive amount. We also haven`t seen this coupling of rain and wind in quite some time. Considering the stress on trees due to the drought, we could see a fair number of trees downed with this storm. We are calibrating our messaging with this impact accordingly. Snow levels will start fairly high with this storm during the heaviest periods of precipitation. Snow levels then rapidly drop below pass levels to 3500-4500 feet late Saturday night and through Sunday into Monday. With periodic snow between Saturday night through Monday, we could be looking at 1 to 2 feet of snow accumulation above 4500 feet or so, and up to 3 feet along the highest peaks.
Maps:
The word “impact” gets too much use in weather and climate, they should just use effect, or affect.
It matters not what part of the world one lives in. The population increases exponentially, it is imperative on all governments to be ahead of the game and plan 50 years ahead for infrastructure such as water. Green crap is destroying our future by being me me now. This dipstick governing Cal is the problem not the lack of rain fall.
looks like California is the only place on the west coast not getting clobbered
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http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-99.36,20.84,517
i’ll believe it if/when it happens…
so far in this El Nope-o, my little part of The Valley has gotten, maybe, 6 measly inches of rain, like totally, fer sure.
I’m not as concerned about the CA snow pack and reservoir status as I am about the groundwater stores, or lack of them. The aquifers have been drained to below critical levels throughout the state, thanks to lousy water management. Planting orchards and alfalfa fields in what was desert has always struck me as foolish, and has nothing to do with “anthropogenic climate change”.
You would think that the state would pump what it could into underground aquifers if they’re releasing water “in anticipation of heavy spring run-off”. We do it here in Arizona all the time; we’ve banked enough run-off that there’s no concerns about even the possibility of water restrictions until mid-2017 regardless of what happens to Colorado River flow rates.
I wouldn’t anticipate being able to bank yuuuuge amounts of released water into aquifers, but any amount is better than simply letting it all bypass and run into the oceans. With fracking technology today, any collapsed substrates could be opened back up with high-intensity injection. Actually, I’m surprised there’s been no discussion about that in the media. It would go a long way towards ensuring long-term viability.
As far as storing runoff in aquifers, part of the Green ideology is that there are no engineering solutions for shortages, only conservation. Anything that might really give good results is crimethink.
I have been promoting both for a long time. Use aquifers to store flood waters rather then letting it run to the sea. Use fracking to enable and enhance the process. This has so many benefits. Take Xian in china, refill the aquifer with heave the worlds largest city walls back into place and store vast amounts of water. In California and UK where it is forbidden to build reservoirs, use what you have out of sight. Its not rocket science.
What has the potential so save more electricity, fossil fuel use and co2 emissions (not that we need either) than all the global windmills and solar plants?
A simple heat exchanger in A/c outdoor units that captures heat and uses it to heat domestic water for free. Unlike the 500 billion cost of green Germany, this would effectively cost nothing.
Because it works just like the recharge the aquifers. But, they dont want nor have any interest in things that work.
I live is a California county covered by the extreme drought. The hills are deep Irish green, the lawn is saturated, Folsom Dam has been dumping water in anticipation of a strong spring runoff, the aqueducts are running at high capacity. The almond orchards are in full bloom. About 50% of CA water is allowed to flow directly into the ocean, right by my house. This is to keep salt water pushed backed passed a little town called Antioch, Shasta is basically a reservoir for this purpose. This was all settled in a lawsuit back in the late 20’s. Lol there is fraud in the data that is being used by environmentalists to justify this saltwater intrusion water waste (if anyone is interested, I have the original data and the manipulation) Anyways, the Gov Brown has the right idea in putting in the water tunnels on the Sac River, this will solve much of the water problem.
Just attributing this to El Niño is a bit miss leading. This westward displaced El Niño has been an average rain maker at best for CA. A strong active phase of the MJO in the pacific combined with the El Niño base state is the real story here.
Yep, an MJO burp or actually maybe a couple of them. Some chance for another one later this week. Let’s talk in June, then we’ll know where we are really at.
This storm forecast was right on. The rain started around midnight last night. It was a steady, light to moderate rainfall. Then around noon today a heavy burst came through for a short period. Now it is back to light to moderate steady rain.
Down here in Santa Paula, Ventura County, CA. http://spweather.net/gauges.htm
I live in SoCal. I was looking forward to a few flooded streets and a nice soaking for my newly xeriscaped, front yard before the long, seasonal drought sets in. So far, there’s been very little, less than 0.20″. But, I guess I’ll take whatever I can get.
update from The Valley: my redneck rain gauges show we got ~1.5″ overnight, for a winter total of 7.5, so far.
IOW, we’re still, like totally in a drought, fer sure.
The AR dried up or fizzled out when it move thru SoCal. See http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sgx&full=yes&iname=WeatherStory2.png
Was prepared for the onslaught but not much happened at my location in Norco CA. Light rain started falling around 0700 and was all done by 1030. The sun came out and it turned out to be a pretty nice day.