Guest essay by Philip Foster
COP21 Paris climate conference urged that all home heating should move away from gas to be all electric. In the UK the Climate Change Act already assumes this scenario will be put into practice.1
Just how realistic is this for the UK?
There are around 16 million (16 × 106) households connected to the gas grid network in the UK.
The average household boiler is rated at 60 kiloWatt
To replace that with electric home heating would still require about the same electrical capacity. (Remember even a single electric shower is 7 kW, and an oven approaching 10 kW).2
Here’s the math(s):
16 × 106 × 60 kW = 96 × 107 =~ 100 × 107 = 109 kW = 106 MegaW = 103 GigaW
or about 1 TeraW of extra power.
Drax, in Yorkshire England (which was the UK’s biggest and most efficient coal fired power station), generates about 4 GW, therefore to generate this extra 1 TW we would need to build about 250 Drax sized power stations, or erect half a million 5 MW (in reality, 2 MW) wind turbines [for reference: current requirement in the UK is a mere 40 GW, that is 0.04 TW].
Now let’s go to COP21’s second idea that all cars should be electric.3
In the UK there are about 35 million cars (just over double the number of households).
1 Horsepower is about 750 W
So an average 100 HP car engine = 75 kW (marginally more than the average household boiler)
This means we need, not just 1 TW extra electric power to charge up these vehicles, but more than 2 TW.
That is 500 Drax-sized power stations or one million wind turbines.
Combining household heating with electric cars the UK would need an extra 3 TW of generating power.
Although, arguably, the 3 TW are not always needed, they will be, frequently so, around 5-6pm on a weekday. People return home, plug their cars, switch on their heating, and start cooking – all on electric.
So COP21 (and our very own Climate Change Act) is asking the UK to build 750 more Drax sized power stations4 or 1.5 million more wind turbines. And, of course, we would need to completely rebuild the electricity Grid to take this nearly 75 fold increase in load. Also every street in the UK will need to be dug up to install much higher capacity cabling.
I’m not sure the English language has a word strong enough to describe this. It’s beyond insanity. Perhaps, as Roger T. put it: “the British like their understatement: ‘problematic’?”
Notes
1. See Christopher Booker:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11305122/Forget-your-gas-cooker-were-headed-for-zero-carbon-Britain.html
2. Much talk about using heat pumps. But here again this is nigh impossible:
a. Most houses using gas are terraced or semi-detached in urban areas where there is obviously a limit to how much heat can be extracted from the ground without creating a local ‘permafrost’.
b. The necessary excavations in such areas would almost certainly hit gas mains (however defunct!), sewers, water pipes and electricity cabling.
3. Issues about electric cars:
a. The Tesla’s battery weighs 800kg – nearly a tonne. That is the equivalent of about eight extra passengers present for a whole journey. Range, if you are lucky, 200 miles. If it’s cold then less, as the power available from the battery drops by 50% for every ten degree drop in temperature. A petrol (gasoline) car for the same range would use fuel that weighed perhaps 16kg, diminishing, with no measurable change in available power for a ten degree drop in temperature.
b. Now imagine you are out on a lonely road in a blizzard in a Tesla. You have no heating; power diminishing due to the cold; you meet a snow drift; the vehicle slowly grinds to a halt with no available power. What can you do? Find a recharging point? Fat chance! Stay in the vehicle and hope for rescue? You’ll probable freeze to death. Get out and walk? a similar fate.
In a gas vehicle, unless you run out of fuel, you have heating, you are less likely to get stuck. Even if you do run out of fuel, you’ll probably have a spare can in the trunk: half a minute and you running again.
4. Just how many US forests will this require? Currently Drax consumes 7 million tonne per annum of ‘biomass’ – mostly imported wood pellets from the USA – for half its boilers. Assuming the new requirement of 750 Drax sized stations have to be built, they will consume a minimum of 5 billion tonne of wood pellets per annum!
Philip Foster
convenor Paris Climate Challenge www.pcc15.org
author, ‘While the Earth Endures: Creation, Cosmology and Climate Change’
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The estimate of the number of households with gas-fired central heating is too low. As of 2009, the number was around 23 million according to the graph on page 47 here :https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/345141/uk_housing_fact_file_2013.pdf
Presumably, all or the vast majority are connected to the grid.
Also to be taken into account when going all electric are commercial premises heated by gas central heating. No idea how many of those there are.
First let me say that I think the proposal to convert gas heating to electrical heating is stupid. Electrical resistance heating is very inefficient (that’s why it produces heat). That said, as was pointed out by a number of commenters above, the approach used in the posted article is not correct. It confuses energy and power.
Because the approach was incorrect, I suspect (but I haven’t done the math(s)) that the conclusions are wrong also. The necessary natural gas for heating is available, the gasoline (I believe it’s petrol in the UK) for vehicles is available, thus the total energy in these fuels is within the ability of the UK to supply. If these fuels were used produce electricity, then the electrical energy would be within the ability of the UK to supply.
I think a more direct way to determine how much electrical energy is required, is to obtain the total gas and petrol usage in the UK for a year. Those figures should be available from some government department. They are (or were years ago when I used them) in the US. Then multiply by the BTU content of a unit of each fuel to get the total BTUs the fuel consumption represents. Then convert to electrical units. Note that BTUs convert to Kw-hrs. If you want to present that as the number of electrical generating plants of a certain size that are required, divide by the number of hours in a year and the size of the plant. Of course more a accurate estimate could be obtained by accounting for peak demand and inefficiency of electrical heating.
There are many inefficiencies of burning fuel to make electricity, transporting this power to customers, and then reconverting to heat.
Every step has thermodynamic losses, plus other factors than ensure much energy is completely wasted by using this plan.
But you likely know that. Just sayin’.
” Electrical resistance heating is very inefficient (that’s why it produces heat).”
Care to explain?
My electrical heaters are 100% efficient. Every joule that enters as electric energy exits as heat.
Energy efficiency must really depend on one’s perspective.
From here, it looks like The Blob sends clouds to the hills, where they fall as raindrops, collecting behind a pile of re-manufactured rocks fortuitously piled by kindly neighbours. Then, the water flows through a pipe and a glorified Pelton wheel, turns a magnet and I get free heat in my house.
Then some bandits send me an invoice just because they can.
Just guessing, but perhaps this refers to the losses that occur by heating up ductwork and other parts that are not within the living space.
If the UK thinks that it can power itself with solar power and wind power, then much more money needs to be poured into the teaching of mathematics and computer spread sheet abilities.
In the UK, the Govn’t has mandated a special plan for industry to save energy. A return to 1970’s style 3 day working weeks, while at the same time exporting industry to countries like India (Steel and Tata for instance). Seriously! I think rolling brown and black outs in the UK during the 70’s will pale in comparison to what is going to happen. Then maybe, just maybe, someone like Guy Fawkes might succeed. Nah! Coronation street will be on TV then.
I live alone in a two bedroom apartment in the UK. It has no gas supply, only electricity. My annual electrical consumption is 5000 kWh. Multiplying my consumption by the population of the UK results in an average of about 35 to 40 GW on average national electricity consumption, not very different from current usage. In other words, changing from domestic gas isn’t likely to make a significant difference to the electrical consumption of the country, certainly not the 25 fold increase suggested by this article which says a Terawatt would be needed if domestic gas were abandoned.
Fortunately my cooker is switched off most of the time, and my boiler has a thermostat.
You left out the energy in the nat gas and motor fuels.
“changing from domestic gas isn’t likely to make a significant difference to the electrical consumption of the country”
Preposterous.
Obviously it will. It isn’t “likely”, it’s a certainty.
Unless you define “significant difference” as “several orders of magnitude increase”, of course. Then NOTHING will be “make a significant difference”.
(Unless the price increase creates a major crisis, or a civil war, mass starvation and death, etc. Then it will be a significant decrease.)
It’s “1 TeraW” that’s preposterous.
A domestic gas supply isn’t necessary. My apartment was built without one decades ago.
The gas could be used for electricity generation. It’s preposterous to suggest a TW is required, when total UK electricity consumption now averages a few tens of GW.
deklein – It definitely is preposterous to suggest that “changing from domestic gas isn’t likely to make a significant difference to the electrical consumption of the country”.
Over the last 5 years, I, in my 3-bed semi (with cavity wall insulation, much roof insulation and double glazed windows throughout) have consumed 12155 kWh of electricity and 52977 kWh of gas. That means that my electricity consumption would go up by 536% if electric heating and cooking were equally efficient as my current gas appliance (I use a Rayburn “range” which cooks and drives the radiators and hot water). Now I accept that getting the gas to my house does consume electricity – all the pumps in the transmission system don’t drive themselves) but it is still the case that there is a significant increase in electricity generation required to replace all gas appliances for 23million domestic gas consumers with electric equivalents.
I’m not disputing that the maths in the original article may well be suspect – smarter people than I have already pointed out some egregious errors – but the basic premise is correct; there will have to be a huge increase in electricity generation in the UK if all gas consumption were to be outlawed.
Perhaps I should have used a word other than “significant”. I’d guess no more than doubling domestic electricity needs by abolishing domestic gas, still well short of 100 GW on average. A few new power stations should do the trick, but we are not allowed the kind China and India are building. Whether it should be done is another matter. I personally am not as attached to domestic gas as some people.
I suspect domestic gas might be anachronistic. Gas distribution began with town gas, before the era of large efficient coal fired power stations brought down the price and increased the availability of electricity. I personally do quite well without it.
deklein – I fear you still don’t get it. To replace my gas consumption will need a 5-fold increase in electricity use. If this is even a vague approximation of the average for all 23 million domestic gas users, I fail to see how this can be done merely by doubling electricity generation.
In addition, in support of your notion that domestic gas may be anachronistic, you pray in aid the cost of electricity. Your idea will only have a degree of credibility when the costs are equal. The way things are going, of course, that won’t be any time soon. My current charges per kWh for electricity and gas are 11.2p and 3.425p. Large efficient coal fired power stations may have reduced the price of electricity but it’s still 3 times the price of gas. What’s more, the destruction of the very coal fired power stations you are using in your argument essentially negates any credibility the argument may once have had.
Abolishing domestic gas will not affect you in the slightest. However, you are somewhat outnumbered by the 23 million gas consumers and their families. Any government which tried to do what you are advocating would, quite rightly, be destroyed.
Numbers from New York State: 2013 residential consumption of natural gas (mostly home heating but also hot water) was 416.2 billion cubic feet of gas. That converts to 121,980 GWh of electricity without accounting for any of the issues with efficiency loss and transmission loss. If the State decides to generate that power using wind energy (without correcting for the storage needed because the seasonal peaks in wind and heat needed are different) they only need to increase the existing wind capacity by 30 times. Alternatively you would need to nearly triple the nuclear generation.
And you know the answer. It will be wind. Even fracking has been banned in New York State. Nuclear? No way.
Then we just wait for the ice storm that destroys all the windmills at the same time as power demand is at a maximum.
And what about when you do account for all of the real world costs and losses?
For me, this season’s “snowmeggedon” is over. But people are still without electricity. I’m glad I have natural gas and gas logs. Even when the power is out, I stay warm. While electricity is more reliable than ever, it is not on 100%. What happens if we go 100% electric but lose our electricity in the middle of a blizzard? Be prepared for a lot of frozen bodies.
For anyone who says we should not heat our homes with some kind of fuel, I challenge them to live 2 days — just 2 days — without electricity during a nor’easter. I guarantee that they will come out of the experience with a different outlook.
Yup. And gas is better than fuel oil because it comes through pipes, rather than having to be delivered.
I recall one nasty storm in the 1970’s when our fuel oil tank ran out on a Friday evening, when roads were impassible, and the temp was in the low teens to below zero for the weekend.
Bad scene, man, even in the downtown of a large city.
People should have a generator with enough fuel to get them through at least a week. You can buy a very good gasoline powered electric generator that puts out 7 kW for around $600 – $700. Many of them can also run on natgas or propane.
I have one, along with a dozen 5-gallon plastic gas cans. I use an additive to make sure the gas doesn’t go bad. I rotate the gasoline supply. After 3 years I just use it in my car, and refill the can with fresh fuel.
Except to test the generator, I’ve never had to use it. But sooner or later something will take down the grid.
DB, a good idea to be sure.
We here in Florida learned the hard way all the things that can go wrong, even with a portable generator and multiple gas cans.
One is that we need AC here more than just about anything…very hard to sleep or do anything when one is sweating uncontrollably, and these are just not able to power an AC unit. For that you need a on demand whole house unit with installed transfer switch.
The next thing we found out the hard way is how fast a can of gas goes with one of those generators…in a few hours of continuous use…you need several per day…most cannot be throttled down efficiently, so they just waste whatever is not being used.
Then we found out that the gas stations had no power, and you need power to pump gas out of the underground tanks…so it was impossible to get more gas…total bummer. And the few places that had generators were mobbed and quickly ran out. (Laws were passed after 2004/2005 disaster years to force all gas stations to install back up generators. They squawked, but had to comply. We have not had a hurricane since. But the big problem may be getting deliveries…the same event that causes power to go out in a region for extended periods usually blocks roads too, although not for as long.)
Then we found out that since you cannot bring these things inside, or even leave them in a garage, they were prone to being stolen, since no one had power and there were lots of people who were very jealous of anyone that had a generator. They make so much noise that everyone can tell who has one from a block away.
Anyway, I could go on…it was messed up to learn all of this the hard way. Preparedness minded folks decided to get whole house units and a big propane tank. This is what I have in mind doing. The house I almost moved into instead of this one had such a set up, installed at great expense after the 2005 season, and never used! But it is only a matter of time. Boy was having no power miserable, nothing to do, no where to go, and more ‘canes were coming so we could not even take the boards off the windows to let some air in.
I went with the house with automatic roll up euroshutters, and the fruit trees. Getting a Generac with a propane tank…but piped in nat gas would be better.
Life is such a struggle!
The Climate Change Act has an escape clause that will almost certainly be used. Nothing is binding… “if it appears to the Secretary of State that there have been significant developments in scientific knowledge about climate change”.
Robin, I fear that you grossly over-estimate the intelligence of the average Secretary of State. Just look at the recent past.
Ed Milliband (author of said Act);
The corrupt and criminal Chris Huhne;
Ed Davey; and
Amber Rudd (the current incumbent).
The above mentioned come from 3 different political parties which just shows that stupidity knows no political boundaries.
I think the numbers may be under estimated. I checked the official number on the internet as any skeptic should.
The average mileage for UK cars is 7000 miles, or about 20 miles per day. The UK has about 35 million vehicles on UK roads. If you assume that these are all require 30 kWh for 172 km (107 miles) on a full battery charge (Nissan Leaf). Then 35 million vehicles will require charging 6kWh mainly overnight. No one in the UK is going to leave home without a fully charged battery if they can help it.
Taking gas for heating and cooking, in the East Midlands during the last three months the average gas consumption was 3357 kWh (British Gas). The East Midlands has had a particularly mild winter up to the end of December. The annual average UK household gas usage is said to be 16,500 kWh (Ofgem) same source for electricity 3,300 kWh. The six coldest months of the year October – March will use 75% of the total. There were 27.0 million households in the UK in 2015, so 16 million using gas for heating is about 60% which seems a touch on the low side.
TW is a unit of capacity. TWh is a unit of energy. Switching from gas and petrol to electricity is primarily an energy problem because of load diversity and the ease of integrating demand response capabilities into EVs. Electric sector production would have to increase, but this is primarily a matter of just running your fleet more. The capacity impact is likely to be fairly small.
Replace the coal fleet with nuclear and the cost of CO2 reduction would be manageable. Try to do it with wind and solar and it’ll be quite expensive.
16,500 kWh (Ofgem) same source for electricity 3,300 kWh
==================
so 5x generating capacity just to switch from gas to electric heat.
Then 35 million vehicles will require charging 6kWh mainly overnight.
16,500 kWh (Ofgem) same source for electricity 3,300 kWh
There were 27.0 million households in the UK
=============
vehicles = 6×365 = 21,000 KWh x 35 million = 735 thousand -million-KWh
households = 16500 + 3300 = 19,800 KWh x 27 million = 534.6 thousand-million-Kwh
existing = 3300 KWk x 21 million = 69.3 thousand-million-KWh
total required = (735+534.6)/69.3 = 16.6 times current capacity.
The vehicle usage seems quite small, but even so the electrical capacity required is still 18.3 times current capacity. Hard to do when you are shutting down all your coal and nuclear plants.
If fact, it is quite easy to say that it is impossible for the UK to install 18.3 times the current electrical capacity over the next 100 years without a technology breakthrough.
U.K. Natural Gas consumption for the year 2011 was 898.3 Terawatt Hours,
source of information at this link,
http://www.eurogas.org/uploads/media/Statistics-Eurogas_press_release_on_More_customers__consuming_less_gas__in_2011_29032012_01.pdf
U.K. Electricity consumption for 2012 was 274.801 Gigawatt Hours.
source of info,
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/267585/Sub-national_electricity_consumption_factsheet_2012.pdf
from these numbers the UK would have to increase current electrical capacity by 3.3 to replace gas. not allowing for transmission losses and difficulties in storing electricity. gas is stored in significant volumes and transmitted with minimal loss.
In point of fact it seems quite silly to replace UK gas heating with electricity. Which probably explains why the government is so keen on the idea.
Neville Chamberlain was very keen on peace.
https://youtu.be/G0ZZJXw4MTA
The cost of CO2 reduction should be 0, as it is utterly unnecessary. All such expenditures are waste or counter-productive.
But reducing carbon dependency might be worthwhile, because some carbon molecule occur more often in some regions.
The sellers of energy rich carbon molecules aren’t often politically neutral. This isn’t just a religious issue.
We don’t need to reduce CO2 output, but doing so would be fabulous for the nuclear industry you adore. And so any excuse will do.
Hydrocarbons, for example, aren’t egalitarian like uranium….
============
“But reducing carbon dependency might be worthwhile, because some carbon molecule occur more often in some regions.
The sellers of energy rich carbon molecules aren’t often politically neutral. This isn’t just a religious issue.”
============
But actually, France has no known uranium reserves, while my non-nuclear country Australia, with 31% of known reserves, has more than any other country on the planet by a huge margin:
Kazakhstan and Canada come in 2nd and 3rd place with 12% and 9%. Most countries, as with France, have none, and would therefore have to rely on foreigners for both fuel and nuclear technology.
In fact, gas has the most egalitarian distribution:
If you combine oil, gas and coal distribution maps, the picture is even better.
That’s good for competition and sovereignty.
“Hydrocarbons, for example, aren’t egalitarian like uranium….”
NOTHING is “egalitarian”.
“Most countries, as with France, have none, and would therefore have to rely on foreigners for both fuel and nuclear technology”
That’s obvious BS.
France relies on foreigners for both fuel and nuclear technology???
What’s wrong with importing stuff?
“In fact, gas has the most egalitarian distribution:”
France has gas? Where? At what cost?
Your graphs are misleading at best.
“Egalitarian” is a French word for something that doesn’t exist…anywhere? Not even as a metaphor for a more equitable distribution of energy resources that would make a successful war against hydrocarbons, as you put it, “worthwhile“?
France has an abundance of gas, apparently:
http://www.blog.ze.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/excel-graph.png
But your parliament created legal impediments for establishing feasibility and costs:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-07-01/france-vote-outlaws-fracking-shale-for-natural-gas-oil-extraction
Well BUGGER!
Allthough the ‘Author’ of this post may have made some miscalculations I can see where he’s coming from.
If the U.K. was to replace all gas used in one year,lets say 898 terawatt Hours (see my previous posts), with so called ‘Renewable Energy’, where would it all come from?
The U.K. is a small place with no space.
From the article,
“I’m not sure the English language has a word strong enough to describe this.”
There isn’t one. But there is a word that the English stole from the Saxons which sums this insanity up very well. Begins with an “F” and ends with a “D”!
Democrats never seem to address demographics.
It is a great shame to see an article like this using ‘alarmaristmath’ and taking the peak capability of a home heating system to determine a faux average demand.
Especially since heat is for more easily stored than electricity, to smooth out daily demand peaks.
Fore some rather closer estimates of what could be involved in a fossil and carbon neutral UK , see :
http://www.templar.co.uk/downloads/Renewable%20Energy%20Limitations.pdf
and
http://www.templar.co.uk/downloads/Beyond_Fossil_Fuels.pdf
In short I am afraid that this is a poor article. The true size of an all electric UK grid is about 3-5 times larger than the current grid not 20 times
It is certainly achievable,but at a considerable cost and is not economic at current fuel prices. Nor is it remotely achievable with ‘renewable energy’.
Leo Smith
And just how the bloody daylights are you going to “store heat” for homes .. when you DON’T HAVE TO in the first place? When power is required to “covert” chemical or electrical energy in one place (while losing energy),
transfer to another (while losing energy),
store it somehow with constant losses (while losing energy),
remove it from that storage facility (while losing energy),
transfer it back to the homes in different sites (while losing energy),
then reheat the homes according to the usage pattern of each home’s kitchen, bedroom, baths, store rooms, upstairs and downstairs and in each ladies’ chambers?
When we can’t efficiently store electricity at all in most places absent a convenient high-elevation lake above a permanent water supply and low-level lake with available cheap electricity always predictably available to pump it uphill … You want to remove an efficient, working system of natural gas pipes and heaters and regulators and replace it with fairy and pixie dust carried by unicorns?
RACook,
Would it surprise you if I agreed with both of you? Because I do.
“store heat” for homes ..in radiators or ‘economy 7’ stoneblock heaters as mentioned above
(or new tech like molten salt etc)
BTW by saying “bloody daylights” are you trying to speak British English ?
It’s not phrase anyone uses.
Yes! Economy 7, night storage heaters! Crikey! Brings back memories. They did work at a time when electricity was cheap. Today? No so much as gas is king right now in the UK.
“stewgreen
January 23, 2016 at 11:33 pm
BTW by saying “bloody daylights” are you trying to speak British English ?”
No I think he is trying to speak English English (Austin Powers, how apt, reference).
Actually, “I will beat the bloody (some say living) daylights out of you” is a very English expression.
Actually storing heat is pretty easy. All it takes is a big mass. Could be concrete, could be water. ‘Night storage heaters’ already exist although they are terribly unsatisfactory.
However that was only part of what I was saying. You may have a 60KW boiler to supply ‘instant hot water’ but even a fairly massive house in the depths of winter doesn’t pull more than 10Kw if its reasonably insulated.
And no I dont want top replace stuff BUT I am prepared to examine honestly what it takes to do it, and write it up, honestly, which I have done. And which I am afraid this author has not done.
It is possible to ditch gas and oil and coal, but it comes at a price which is not currently economic, but its not as uneconomic as this author suggests.
The way I remember saying it to her, I did not use the word “beat”. It was another word.
I think the math you present here is fundamentally flawed! You can’t just sum up installed power and pretend this will be used power! To pick up your example of a 7kW electric shower. This is the rated power as per the type plate of the device. Then there is a switch to turn the device on and off. So your figures are way too high. Please recalculate with more realistic assumptions.
Nevertheless, I wouldn’t like to see any of this COP21 stuff coined into legal paragraphs ;-(
No. Let’s not assume an average of 100 horse power per car. That is the max of the power curve of that car; even a 200 hp car (or 300 or 400…) only produces like 20-50 most of the time, i.e. when rolling along, or in city traffic… you can see that live in any modern car on the infotainment screen. Let’s not go with the actual fuel consumption; let’s go with what current electric cars, which would be the replacement, need to run…
There is nothing greater than the power of logic!
Just out of curiosity, what kind of heating requirements would there be in Canada, where often winter temperatures sit at -30C or drop below -40C? Add a wind to that.
Lucky for us we’re also sitting on a massive amount of Natural Gas. Unlucky for panicky people that fear burning it.
“Even if you do run out of fuel, you’ll probably have a spare can in the trunk: ”
I don’t think so. I would install a bracket and carry it outside — if I had to carry fuel.
Fumes can vent from the can. Open the trunk, a light goes on, and boom.
Lots of other bad things can happen.
Seriously, if this isn’t against the law — it should be.
Only if the mixture of fuel fumes and air ratio was right (9% is the butter zone I think) and there was a spark otherwise nothing. How do you think a fuel gauge works?
Sigh.
FIrst, Philip Foster, thanks for the article. Next, I fear that I agree with the others that your numbers make no sense.
You are right that it will be a wrenching change to switch the UK away from fossil fuels to electricity. It is also totally un-necessary.
However, it will not require as many new power plants as you claim. Your numbers have serious problems. By that I don’t just mean that they are wrong. I mean that the units are wrong, and thus you are measuring the wrong thing. You are measuring watts, when you need to be measuring watt-hours.
All the best,
w.
Willis,
I think the numbers in the article are an under estimate if anything. I have tried to meet your usual request below.
Check out the numbers:
Gas
From Ofgem the UK government energy market regulator
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2011/01/domestic-energy-consump-fig-fs_1.pdf
annually
New typical medium consumption figures gas=16,500 kWh electricity=3,300 kWh
There’s a calculator at this url if you know any UK post codes
https://www.britishgas.co.uk/EnergyUsage/Usage_Comparison_Anonymous/
UK Government figures
Households
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/family-demography/families-and-households/2015/stb-families-and-households.html
There were 27.0 million households in the UK in 2015, 35% of all households were two person households.
Cars
Average annual mileage 12000 daily that is about 32 miles or a third charge for a Nissan Leaf (see below)
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10309
Registered vehicles 35 million
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/vehicle-licensing-statistics-2013
Nissan Leaf (Wikipedia)
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) official range for the 2016 model year Leaf with the 30 kWh battery is 172 km (107 miles) on a full battery charge, while the trim with the smaller 24 kWh battery is 135 km (84 miles), the same as the 2014/15 model year.
Some notes to bear in mind
1. As gas is used for heating in UK homes most don’t have any electrical heaters or one at the most big expense for households to change
2. Most consumption of gas is during the 6 months of winter October-March. There are parts of the UK where heating is used every month of the year, although not every day, by some households.
3. 40% of private cars have a female registered keeper. Who won’t want to leave home on less 100% charge – if they have any sense.
4. The Nissan figures don’t include running wipers and window demisting on a rainy November day.
5. The urban infrastructure uses more electricity in winter, street lights for example.
6 Taking the Ofgem figures above at face value then to cover domestic usage a five-fold increase in electricity generation is required to cover the requirement.
I’d be interested where I have gone wrong in my thinking.
This sounds correct! I didn’t check the figures. If you know the gas consumption of a group of households, and you want to replace this by electricity, then you have to provide electric power stations with an electric output of the same amount. At this point comes the efficiency of the electric power station: Let’s consider two facts:
1) Energy brought to households in the form of gas can be converted to heat with very little losses. The efficiency of devices like water boilers is almost 100%.
2) Now consider the Power stations: The electric output power is roughly 30% (coal)…60% (gas) of the primary energy input. So, if one would substitute gas household heatings by electricity which were to be produced by coal or gas power stations, the primary energy consumption would approximately double or triple.
3) When switching to green primary energy, the situation is completely different again. They are not able to deliver just at the right time. In a conventional power grid, generators are big and centralized. They run at rated speed, producing a nearly constant voltage, and as loads are switched on and off, deliver more or less current. With green generators, a new problem pops up: Generators are being driven up and down, according to weather conditions, clouds, sunshine, wind. In conventional power grids, the generator stations are designed, that they *CAN* deliver. The green generators can deliver too – *SOMETIMES*. If we were to satisfy the power demand with wind only, then the installed generator power of wind turbines should be *50 times the maximum power demand!* Yes, sometimes there is very little wind!
4) With combined green generator capacities, sun AND wind, the factor can be estimated to be less than 50, maybe 20.
Hi Willis,
No Watts (power) is the correct calculation, not Watt-hours (energy).
That’s because the calculation is about “all home heating should move away from gas to be all electric.”
To make that calculation you need to know how much extra electricity feed you need into all homes.
Note on units: The similarity in name between kilo Watt hours and kilo Watts is a bit of a trap. They are not the same thing. One is a unit of Energy and the other is a unit of power…
Energy is power multiplied by time; power is energy divided by time (i.e. energy used per unit time). Power is measured in Watts (W), kilo Watts (kW), Mega Watts (MW) etc. Power is how much work you are doing right now. A 2kW heater is working twice as hard as a 1kW heater.
Energy is measured in Joules (J), kilo Joules (kJ), etc. and is a measure of the total amount of work done (and hence your electricity bill). The 2kW heater will run up the same bill in half the time as the 1kW because it is working twice as hard. Energy is also (rather confusingly) measured in the bastard unit the kilo Watt hour (kWh). A kWh is just the number of Joules that you use when working at 1kW for one hour. That is, 1000 Watts times 3600 seconds in an hour; 3,600,000 Joules or 3.6MJ.
As I write, it’s 12C outside and a toasty 22C inside, so my heating has raised the inside temperature 10C. To do that on my small place takes (say) 2kW (power), so I’m using 2kWh (energy) each hour.
If I were to use my same 2kWh but spread over a whole day, I’d only have one twenty-fourth of the 2kW at any time. That’s only 83W and would only raise the temperature indoors by 0.4C. The indoors temperature would only be 12.4C and I’d have to put on a woolly jumper or two (and a hat).
The do the calculation for the whole country we need to know how much gas is burned in a day heating homes. We won’t be able to get the worst case maximum because I doubt that gas consumption is measured on a second by second (as electricity consumption is). That means that we can only calculate the average demand, not the peak (which is what governs the maximum generating capacity required). Nevertheless, we should be able to get a reasonable estimate of, say, extra electricity generating capacity needed for heating the UK on a winter day, provided we can get daily gas usage figures.
(I think I’ve got that right)
All the best…
Correct!
Power [kW] is a measure [unit] of an INTENSITY,
energy [kWh] is a measure [unit] of a QUANTITY.
Willis, stewgreen
Please check these numbers. I think the situation is worse than stated. All skeptics should check independently?
Vehicles
In 2013:
There were 35 million vehicles licensed for use on the road in Great Britain.
40% of private cars have a female registered keeper.
ref = http://www.gov.uk – government/statistics/vehicle-licensing-statistics-2013
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) official range for the 2016 model year Leaf with the 30 kWh battery is 172 km (107 miles) on a full battery charge, while the trim with the smaller 24 kWh battery is 135 km (84 miles), the same as the 2014/15 model year.
ref = wikipedia
Average mileages, car 12000 (32 miles per day one third Nissan Leaf charge)
ref = afdc.energy.gov
Domestic energy use
New typical medium consumption figures gas=16,500 kWh electricity=3,300 kWh
ref = ofgem.gov.uk
Points
1. Most UK households have little or no electrical heating, major expense for citizens in changing
2. To replace gas with electricity domestically requires a fivefold increase in generation capability.
3 Most gas (80%?) is used in the 6 winter months, October – March, meaning point 2 is a low estimate.
4. Most people will leave home with a fully charged Nissan Leaf. Particularly female users who quite rightly won’t want to be stranded alone on a dark road.
5. Most UK homes have a hot water cistern (about 200litre) so overall more energy is used than for heat as it’s used systems.
Mods I posted something like this earlier which may be in Room 101.
Sandy, just a few ‘corrections’ if I may. It wouldn’t be a major expense for a chnagover to electric (not in investment). UFH and fanned (in-floor) heating isn’t expensive. A fanned (in-floor) system would cost around £1,400, whereas a replacement boiler costs £2,500. Secondly, it’s envisaged to have homes as individual power stations for its own use. A combined heat and power unit generates power to run an electric heating system of 10kW. The heat produced by such units provides hot water. Thus a home is self-sufficient in power and hot water. The National Grid doesn’t need to do anything. The downside is that these units are £20,000. Average hot water cyclinders in Britain are 150 litres.
Baz,
OK 150 litres, still a lot of hot water standing around cooling down.
In this discussion the UK is talking about a zero CO2 regime. Are these combined heat and power units non-fossil fuel? How many people can afford £20K?
Boilers are only replaced on failure or on new ownership, every 15-20 years probably?
For electrical UFH the old hot water radiator system, the most common type would, in most cases be removed adding to the cost. I suspect that the timescale which will be imposed by the government will be a lot less than the normal turnover rate. This would lead to a shortage of skilled labour and higher cost due to market forces.
Now, in this zero CO2 regime, we’re talking retrofit and from what little I know even electrical UFH systems will require the following in most retrofit installations:
Remove all the furniture and belongings from the room
Lift and remove all the carpets and floor coverings (and throw them away – even carpet never goes back right 2nd time)
*Insulate under the floors (in timber suspended floors as drafts draw heat away)
Bash holes through walls to get the feed lines
Have the room(s) out of action for 2~3 days at a time
Plane down all the doors to accommodate the uplift in floor height
Possibly remove and refit your skirtings to accommodate the new floor height
*That’s virtually every traditional home in the UK.
I suspect that most people would only do that in two or three rooms, the other rooms would have the hot water radiator replaced by an electrical convector. Most home owners turn off the heating in unused rooms and only turn it on when the room is occupied. A family of 4 in a UK 3 bed semi means all rooms are used. What I’m trying to say is that there is still a expense being forced onto house owners which they wouldn’t regard as necessary or sensible.
Yep calling it out, cos right from the beginning the maths in this post is severely flawed. So please go back, check it and come back, as a new post.
– It doesn’t seem it was checked over properly by someone who understands the context, before it was posted ..and that would have saved us a lot of time
Warmists are you that watching ? Calling out your own side is easy, but you guys don’t do it.
Yet above I can see all these people calling this out. @AJB @climatereason @Ben Klijn of Houston @richard Barraclough @terry @simple-touriste @Mike Smith @James Baldwin Francisco @Ben Klijngt Abelsson @Steve from Rockwood @Fixy @Rab McDowell @Leopold Danze Smith @wijnand2015 @Crispin in Waterloo @indefatigablefrog.
@Rudy MENZI
Two main errors summarised by @indefatigablefrog @Crispin in Waterloo and wijnand2015
#1 Assuming … total capacity = peak demand ..hence massively over estimating it
#2 Undercounting the number of gas households out by about 30% (@charlie)
(60kw if far too high for a home boiler
The boilers heat up the radiators then sit back a bit, so they don’t all draw peak capacity at the same time
You can figs for UK gas heating consumption from DECC
That would give you the basis for power you need to replace with electric)
– As to the main argument yes I agree.
Critically : One problem is heating is just a winter demand when solar/wind power are at the lowest.
If you build an electric network to heat the UK in winter, that means you’ll have masses of infrastructure idle in the summer.
If you build an electric network to heat the UK in winter, that means you’ll have masses of infrastructure idle in the summer.
It is already like that.
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
Winter is darker colder and people are inside more watching more TV and charging their personal vibrators…;-)