Guest essay by Eric Worrall
IPCC Lead Author Professor Myles Allen, who just last year in 2014 stated that alarmism is unhelpful, appears to have changed his mind – his new position is that “normal weather is now a thing of the past”.
According to The Telegraph;
Global warming: normal weather is a ‘thing of the past’, claims scientist
Oxford University’s Professor Myles Allen said we have ‘changed the odds’ on weather conditions, with wetter and warmer winters now more likely.
Normal weather is now a “thing of the past”, a leading climate change scientist has said, after storms and heavy rain caused devastating floods in parts of Britain.
December was record-breaking in both warmth and rainfall, according to the Met Office, with temperatures closer to those expected in April and May. For some parts of the UK, it was also the wettest December since records began in 1910.
Professor Myles Allen, leader of the Climate Research Programme at the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute said: “Normal weather is actually a bit of a thing of the past.
“Here in Oxford we maintain the world’s longest daily weather record, we just beat the previous record by a whopping two and a half degrees and that record was set back in 1852.
This rather alarmist claim is a sharp contrast from Professor Allen’s more conciliatory statements in 2014.
NGOs have at times been alarmist over climate change … but the IPCC has been very clear and measured throughout. I think alarmism on any issue is unhelpful.
Read more: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/04/ipcc-lead-author-prof-myles-allen-alarmism-is-unhelpful/
Why has Professor Myles suddenly decided to be “unhelpful”? As noted previously by WUWT, the severity of the floods in Britain has likely been exacerbated by poor river management. If the British Government had maintained a sensible level of river dredging, the flood waters would have drained more efficiently, and the rivers might not have burst their banks.
If you really want to go “normal” we need to get out of the this interglacial and back into the glaciated Earth.
Yes, that is exactly what these crazy people are doing: trying to force another Ice Age instead of desperately extending this short Interglacial.
Prof Allen said “What we’re doing is loading the dice if you like, or like an athlete popping pills, we’re changing the odds. And we’re seeing the odds on these extreme warm, extreme wet winters increasing. ”
Its a pity Prof Allen does not appear to read the material that the MET office issue.
“Annual mean precipitation over England and Wales has not changed
significantly since records began in 1766.”
Page 12
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/media.jsp?mediaid=87932&
The quote continues
. …..”Seasonal rainfall is highly variable,
but appears to have decreased in summer and increased in winter, although
with little change in the latter over the last 50 years. ”
‘Although little change in the last 50 years’ refers to the winter period.
This publication directly contradicts Prof Allen
Bruce Cobb climate wan**rs ha ha – I don’t think its any worse than denier.
Myles Allen was also the guy that predicted 11 deg C warming.
http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=70
Of course he was heavily criticised for that. Then he decided alarmism wasn’t helpful, and now decides normal is now a thing of the past.
Is this what is called the “scatter gun” approach?
He’s certainly shooting wide on every shot, which is pretty funny.
“Professor Myles Allen, leader of the Climate Research Programme at the University of Oxford’
That someone could hold such a position and have such a short-sighted and unscientific understanding of the ebb and flow and boundaries of the chaos of weather speaks volumes. This statement ought to come from someone with no education and certainly no knowledge of weather or weather history. It further demonstrates a total ignorance of statistics that ought to shame anyone who calls themselves a professor of climate.
Pathetic.
Yet more egregious ‘projection’ from climate alarmists. They’re really quite shameless; just a wall of BS propaganda. Shame about Miles because he comes across as ok, yet he’s no different to all the other liars and exaggerators. Hey ho.
Allen’s statement on the IPCC is materially wrong. They are purposely biased to create findings of dangerous AGW. That is alarmism worse than any random NGO’s; it enables NGOs.
NOTE: Donna Laframboise is a good source on the IPCC memes for alarm.
John
Yes, good ol’ normal weather, like the Johnstown flood of 1887 and the dust bowls of the 1930’s really has been missing lately… and how about that year without a summer back in 1816?
Normal weather is a thing of the past? So is snow which we had yet another rare and exciting event. Ironically, no one flew in to see it, except in the high country where people are going skiing. If anything, there has been a net migration of the well heeled looking for warmer climes. I’m still waiting for my status as a climate refugee from the cold. Think of the benefits of the UN relocating me. I wouldn’t be burning that evil fossil fuel to, well, keep warm.
Follow the Builderburg gang
. . .
These dudes?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group
Todays news flash.
Severely normal weather.
News at 11.
The hype and hysteria on the Canadian Weather Channel and the North American News Channels, is amusing.
Rain Event? Are tickets available?
Named storms, with a name given to every blip on the radar.
Hurricanes that are only seen on radar and satellite given breathless coverage.
This kind of propaganda works short term but defeats itself long term.
Extreme Weather?
Windbags!
Storm..
So much shorter and concise.
I wonder who still buys the Catastrophic Climatisms?
People who have never left their climate controlled abodes in the inner city?
The same people who would take a selfie with honey and a wild bear?
There has been a definite deterioration of civic standards involved in the urbanization of western society.
Has any one measured the cost of civic insanity?
Or is decline of civilization a natural consequence of building Babble On?
‘Normal’
For some time now weather presenters in the media have been using this vague and meaningless word.
They report that the forecasted temperature will be x degrees above or below normal when they actually mean above or below average.
The intent is clear; if the temperature is above or below normal then the weather must therefore be abnormal and potentially scary.
“They keep using this word. I do not think it means what they think it means…”
When did we ever have ‘normal’ weather?
If the weather was predictable, he wouldn’t have a JOB!!! Oh the irony!
Then again, Prof. Allen might have first checked with the weather bureau for this weeks forecast.
Foot meet mouth
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/633273/Snow-weather-uk-severe-alert-forecast-south-snowbomb
michael
‘Snowbomb’? Oh, for goodness’ sake! I suppose it’s aimed at TV ‘reality’ show audiences and the like.
I find it strange and amusing that when we have what is considered ‘normal’ weather, usually meaning no rain and comfortable temps so we are not inconvenienced, this is not also caused by CO2.
IPCC Lead Author Professor Myles Allen should be called “Goldilocks”.
Normal weather is neither too hot or too cold, neither too windy or too still, neither too wet or too dry. Weather should be “just right” and if it’s not, it’s climate change at work, and it’s somebody’s fault.
Are you blaming bears now for the weather? 🙂
There are about 270 major river basins in the world and one has a one in 1000 year flood every 4 years on average. With data for many not even being available for the past 100 years, the unprecedented floods might be really 10th on the list eg. The Murray had its biggest flood in 1956 but research suggests that there was a flood with 4 times the water a few years before European settlement.
By definition, ‘normal’ is the past pattern of events. Doh.
An Anthropologicless Globalist Warning.
Average is a mathematical concept–nothing more and nothing less. Very few things in nature are “average”.
“Normal” weather a thing of the past? Has the good (?) professor never heard a saying that is popular in one variation or another practically the whole world ’round, “Don’t like the weather? Wait 15 minutes, it’ll change!”
Both weather and climate change all the time, slowly or quickly…most of us understand that “normal” weather only occurs a few days or at most a few weeks at a time. Then comes something that’s not “normal”…
In my opinion, it’s difficult to make an association between “normal” and “weather”. I just know that global warming may lead to global cooling, as shown here – http://oceansgovernclimate.com/climate-science-is-master-in-hiding-abrupt-cooling/ – and that many scientists and governments don’t seem to care too much about that and hiding that…..
Normal weather is “anything goes” 😉
that’s normal Mendelian inheritance.
Regards – Hans
meant to
MareeS on January 10,
2016 at 5:06 am
Hans