Guest essay by Steve Goreham
Another year has passed and that stubborn Ozone Hole over Antarctica refuses to go away. Data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) shows that the Ozone Hole for the fall maximum season grew 22 percent from 2014 to 2015. World consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances has been reduced to zero over the last three decades, but the Ozone Hole is as large as ever. Did humans really save the ozone layer?
In 1974, Dr. Mario Molina and Dr. Sherwood Roland of the University of California published a paper asserting that chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) pollution from industry was destroying the ozone layer in Earth’s stratosphere. CFCs were gases used in hair spray, refrigerators, and insulating foams. The ozone layer is a layer of atmosphere located between 6 and 25 miles above the Earth’s surface.
The theory of Molina and Roland postulated that human-produced CFCs migrate upward through the atmosphere to the stratosphere, where ultraviolet radiation breaks down CFC molecules, releasing chlorine atoms. Chlorine then reacts as a catalyst to break down ozone molecules into oxygen, reducing the ozone concentration. The more CFCs used, the greater the destruction of the ozone layer, according to the theory.
In 1983, three researchers from the British Antarctic Survey discovered at thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica, which became known as the Ozone Hole. Their observations appeared to confirm the theory of Molina and Roland. Molina and Roland were awarded a Noble Prize in chemistry in 1995 for their work.
The Ozone Layer is known to block ultraviolet rays, shielding the surface of Earth from high-energy radiation. Scientists were concerned that degradation of the ozone layer would increase rates of skin cancer and cataracts and cause immune system problems in humans. Former Vice President Al Gore’s 1992 book claimed that hunters reported finding blind rabbits in Patagonia and that fishermen were catching blind fish due to human destruction of the ozone layer, but this has not been confirmed.
In an effort to save the ozone layer, 29 nations and the European Community signed the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in September of 1987. Over the next decade, the Protocol was universally signed by 197 nations, agreeing to ban the use of CFCs. Since 1986, world consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) is down more than 99 percent, effectively reaching zero by 2010.
The Montreal Protocol has been hailed as an international success in resolving a major environmental issue. The Protocol has been praised as an example to follow for elimination of greenhouse gas emissions in the fight to halt global warming. But despite the elimination of CFCs, the Ozone Hole remains as large as ever.
During September to October, just after the Antarctic winter, the Ozone Hole is the largest for each year. NASA recently reported that from September 7 through October 13, 2015, the Ozone Hole reached a mean area of 25.6 million kilometers, the largest area since 2006 and the fourth largest since measurements began in 1979. The hole remains large, despite the fact that world ODS consumption all but disappeared about a decade ago.
Scientists are mixed on when the stubborn Ozone Hole will disappear. NASA recently announced that the hole will be half-closed by 2020. Others forecast that it will not begin to disappear until 2040 or later. But the longer the hole persists, the greater the likelihood that the ozone layer is dominated by natural factors, not human CFC emissions.
Originally published in Communities Digital News.
Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of the book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania.
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I always have been puzzled by the “human-produced CFCs migrating upwards” through the atmosphere to the stratosphere. The CFCs are much heavier gasses than air, up to 5 times heavier. That migration can therefore only be done by atmospheric convection and at the South Pole in particular in winter that is practically absent. So you would expect the lowest concentration of CFCs in the upper atmosphere just after the Antarctic winter, when the hole is observed to be largest. To me it always seemed a flawed scenario.
The atmosphere is turbulent (e.g. lots of wind) well mixed (think of what happens when you dump a teaspoon of fine powder into water and keep stirring) It is only well above the stratosphere that the density is low enough for molecules to fractionate by mass. BTW, some people have been fooled by this argument into claiming that all of the CO2 (MW=44 amu) in down around your ankles because it is heavier than air (MW=29 amu). Just ain’t so.
The atmosphere is turbulent only when the ground is warmer than the air, helped by watervapour as trigger for convection. In winter Antarctica has no Sun, so the ground is stone cold, while the air is as dry as can be. And even without a warm ground but with watervapour the air can be still: ground fog, anyone?
Carbondioxide is 50% heavier than air. CFCs are at least 2 times but on avergae 3 to 4 times heavier than air. In a laminar airflow this can lead to stratification, much more so than for CO2.
Actually, this is a measurement that could be made, in central Antarctica I mean. I wonder if anybody has?
No stratification by molecular mass below about 40 miles altitude in our atmosphere, once mixed gases do not ‘unmix’. Measurements of CFCs have been made in the polar stratosphere, above about 15 km altitude CFCs breakdown due to exposure to UV light, CF4 is unreactive up to 50km, see graph below:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/1998/images/fig_faq02.jpg
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/8679/2012/acp-12-8679-2012.pdf It’s the sun fill in the blank
Reblogged here – http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.ie/2015/10/did-we-really-save-ozone-layer.html
One of the main objections to scientific predictions is that they are rarely checked 20 or 30 years later for their accuracy and nobody is ever held to account for a failed prediction and the costs incurred by society as a direct result of that prediction.
As humans we know a lot less about our climate than what we know. The doomsday threat from CFC’s has now shifted to CO2 and when the “threat” from that is over it will have moved on to something else. The one constancy is that scientists will rarely admit their mistakes.
Owen October 28, 2015 at 5:55 am
One of the main objections to scientific predictions is that they are rarely checked 20 or 30 years later for their accuracy and nobody is ever held to account for a failed prediction and the costs incurred by society as a direct result of that prediction.
Whereas the predictions regarding CFC depletion have been regularly checked over the last 30 years and have been found to hold up. Articles such as this one by Goreham which introduce spurious arguments and ignore the facts don’t change anything. The long-lived nature of CFCs has been well known for decades and consequently the importance of ceasing production rapidly was well understood. The idea that a chemical which has an atmospheric lifetime of ~100 years would cease to have an effect as soon as production ended is idiotic, but of course if Goreham had shown the actual atmospheric concentrations instead of production he wouldn’t have been able to write the article. I don’t expect that we will get an apology from Goreham for his misleading article.
http://www.evwind.es/2015/10/26/ozone-hole-nears-record-size-again/54561
Humans have nothing to do with the ozone hole and nothing to do with the climate.
(Fake screen name of banned commenter. ~mod.)
The ozone hole is where the magnetosphere penetrates the atmosphere….
Its not going to go away no matter how much you legislate….
Its pretty simple…
I wonder if it was only co-incidence that the hole in the ozone layer over antarctica was discovered at about the same time as the 50 year licence for CFC production was about to expire?
The ozone hole is where the magnetosphere penetrates the atmosphere….
Its not going to go away no matter how much you legislate….
Its pretty simple…
Sorry Mr. Goreham, but you denier types just seem to get it wrong every time.
If, indeed, there is no traceable result in ozone recovery after Man has stopped producing CFC’s then the logical conclusion can never be “…the longer the hole persists, the greater the likelihood that the ozone layer is dominated by natural factors, not human CFC emissions.” Rather, it can only mean that there is some other man-made cause for the dangerous hole that has yet to be discovered. Oodles of research money and a new Nobel Prize in Chemistry await the intrepid team that will find the next great Sin of humanity.
Might I inquire as to the state of the antarctic “ozone layer” PRIOR to 1983?
How about prior to the development of CFCs?
Recorded scientific data would be appropriate.
How long has this “hole” existed?
Here’s the data:
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/images/halley_toms_ozone.png