This essay covers the seven beliefs that are necessary for a Paris Protocol to make sense. The reader is invited to rate the probability of each belief being true. Using their probabilities the reader can then calculate their “Skeptic Score”.
The Kyoto Copenhagen Paris Paradigm
The Seven Beliefs Required for Acceptance of the Paris Protocol
Guest essay by David Swinehart
In 1997 a large number of countries meeting in Kyoto, Japan reached an agreement to reduce “greenhouse” gas emissions. The United States signed this agreement along with Australia, Canada, Japan and all of the European Union countries. The after mentioned countries ratified the treaty amongst others. The United States Senate, however, never ratified the treaty, and Canada has since withdrawn. With the treaty set to expire at the end of 2012, an attempt was made to negotiate a replacement in Copenhagen in 2009, but the parties failed to reach a legally binding agreement. In December 2015, another attempt will be made in Paris to negotiate a replacement to the, so called, Kyoto Protocol.
If the United States had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the nation would have been required to reduce its total “greenhouse” gas (GHG) emissions by 6% from its 1990 level during the period 2008 to 2012. As of 2010 the United States had not reduced its total emissions, but rather had increased emissions by about 10% despite a rather large decrease in emissions per capita starting in 2007-2008 caused by the recession. Recent discussions about a new protocol are centered on major countries like the United States reducing total emissions 80% by the year 2050.
The impetus for a treaty to reduce “greenhouse” emissions was a set of beliefs, a paradigm, fostered and promoted by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this article, we will focus only on the essential beliefs, each of which is necessary, for a global treaty to reduce “greenhouse” gas emissions to be a reasonable course of action. Also, we will consider some of the objections to those Beliefs.
As an added bonus, you will have the opportunity to calculate your “Warmist Score”, or more accurately, your adherence to the “Paris Paradigm” (or lack thereof, your “Skeptic Score”).
The following is a set of Beliefs that are espoused by supporters of a Kyoto type treaty. It is also contended that every Belief is necessary and, taken together, sufficient for such a treaty to be acceptable, i.e. the failure of any one of these Beliefs would make such a treaty pointless, but on the contrary if all Beliefs are true, then a Kyoto type treaty would be prudent. Opinions vary and you may feel that one or more Beliefs are not necessary, or perhaps, you may feel that important elements have been omitted. In either case, you are encouraged to make comments.
The Paris Paradigm (a set of seven assertions all of which are necessary to justify a treaty)
1. Unprecedented global warming caused by humans both in rate and magnitude. Since 1850 due to mankind, the earth has warmed faster and to a higher temperature than at any other time in the last 1,000 years, if not longer.
- Accelerating warming. The rate of temperatures increase will accelerate resulting in the period from 1850 to 2100 having an increase in temperature from 2.0° to 4.5°C; or perhaps more.
- Very harmful. This warming has had a significant net harm to the world causing more deaths, economic loss, hurricanes, tornados, droughts, flooding, growth in deserts, increases in malaria, heart attacks, loss of food supply, forced human relocation, wars and deforestation among other harmful effects. The increase in the warming rate mentioned in Belief 2 will cause even greater harm to the world.
- CO2 to blame. The prime cause of all of this is CO2 emissions by humankind.
- Can be controlled. By reducing human emissions of GHG’s (primarily CO2) through a global treaty, warming and its bad effects can be avoided.
- Better than the alternative. The solution will be less harmful than doing nothing or any other proposed solution (adaption or geo-engineering).
- No cheaters. All major emitting countries and regions will comply with the treaty or if they do not, they can be forced into compliance.
What is your Skeptic Score?
To see where you fit on the Warmist/Skeptic scale, fill in the probability of each of the seven Beliefs being true on the blank lines provided in the following table, then multiply all of them together (Click here for a Discussion of Each Belief).
For example, if you were to estimate that each Belief has a 97% change of being correct, the product would be 0.97 multiplied seven times or approximately 0.81. Your Warmist Score would be 81% and you would be a true believer. Your Skeptic Score would be the additive inverse, i.e. 1.0 – 0.81 or 0.19 (19%). (Click here for Skeptic Score Explanation).
Table of Probabilities for the seven Beliefs:
____ Unprecedented global warming caused by humans
____ Accelerating warming
____ Very harmful
____ CO2 to blame
____ Can be controlled
____ Better than the alternative
____ No cheaters
====
____ Warmist Score (the product of the seven Beliefs). The Skeptic Score is 1.0 – the Warmist Score.
The Seven Beliefs
We will now discuss each of the seven underpinnings of the Paradigm and the reasons that might lead to doubts as to the accuracy of each one. The reader may evaluate the certitude of each assertion and arrive at his/her own probability as to its reliability. There is a place following the discussion of each Belief to write your subjective probability. You can then insert those probabilities into the seven Beliefs table.
1. Unprecedented global warming caused by humans both in rate and magnitude.
The warming since 1850 (165 years ago) is estimated by the Hadley Climate Research Unit to be about 0.79°C, a rate of 0.48°C per century. If this rate were to continue for the next 100 years (to the year 2115), the world would be 0.48 °C warmer than today. Since most of the world experiences a typical daily temperature variation of 6°C or more, this hardly seems threatening.
The key to this Belief is the phrase: “human caused”. If only half the rate is caused by humans, anthropogenic global warming (AGW) would be even less threatening.
But is it an unprecedented rate? Unfortunately, we do not have thermometer data going back 1,000 years, and multi-proxy data filters warming rates because of uncertainties in timing of the different proxies. IPCC uses global land and ocean thermometer data from the Hadley Climate Research Unit (HadCRU) going back to 1850. Using the latest HadCRUT data, the highest 25 year rate ended in March, 2007 with 2.15 °C per century warming rate (the 25 year rate has slowed since then).
However, Berkeley Earth has land only data going back to 1750 showing the period ending in September, 1782 to have the highest 25 year warming rate at 6.55 °C per century. Land data will have higher warming rates than the ocean, so those rates cannot be compared to combined land and sea data. However, it reasonable to assume that the highest 25 year warming rate for combined land and sea data, if it were available, would also end in September, 1782.
HadCRU also maintains the oldest thermometer database, which goes back to 1659. This database is only for Central England and therefore not global. Using yearly data only, the highest 25 year warming period ended in 1716 with a warming rate of 7.16 °C per century. Again, this would suggest the period ending in 1716 to have had the highest 25 year global warming rate.
Together, this makes it highly unlikely that since the year 1659 the highest 25 year global warming rate ended in March, 2007, and even less likely that the highest warming rate in the last 1,000 years ended in 2007.
Unprecedented magnitude? The problem with this argument is the well documented Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (~900 CE to 1300, estimates vary). If MWP was approximately as warm as, or warmer than the present, how can we be sure that the current warming was caused by humans? Of course, the MWP could be strictly due to natural causes and the present warming due strictly to human causes, but if the General Circulation Models (GCM) cannot be used to explain the MWP and the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA, ~1400 to 1850) then the GCM’s yield a ‘one-off’ answer. They lack confirmation of a ‘control period’ for comparison. Hence, there is no confirmation of their reliability and no confirmation that humans are the cause of the current warming period (CWP).
But didn’t the IPCC deny that there was MWP? Yes, in its 2001 report, it did, but it has subsequently backed off. They made the contention despite over 100 papers confirming the MWP in the oceans as well as all the continents including Antarctica. These papers were authored by more than 800 scientists (see here). IPCC TAR (2001) featured a proxy series produced by Michael E. Mann, et al. (MBH99) which had no MWP or Little Ice Age (LIA). Using numerous proxy data sets, Mann constructed a graph purporting to show a “hockey stick” (uptick in temperatures) at the end of the 20th century. A version of “hockey stick” graph, though prominent in TAR, was conspicuously absent from the two subsequent assessment reports of 2007 and 2013.
The problems with the “hockey stick” are multifold. See discussion by Dr. Ross McKitrick here. It relied on the Sheep Mountain, bristlecone pine tree ring data from the Rocky Mountains. Without bristlecone data there is no “hockey stick” (see top of page 2 of the previous link) and, of course, a small area of the Rocky Mountains does not represent the entire earth.
But even when included, and through a statistical trick, weighting it many times more than other proxies, the composite series “rolls over” (a down tick in temperatures) after 1980 requiring the deletion (“hide the decline”) of the data past that point. See the discussion by Steve McIntyre here and the video by Prof. Richard Muller here. Also, see the updated (2009) Sheep Mountain data here. For a less technical review, see here.
Of course, there is nothing magical about 1,000 years. Other candidates for periods since the end of the last Ice Age (~10,000 BP) that are warmer than the present are: the Roman Warm Period (~2,100 BP), the Minoan Warm Period (~3,400 BP) and the Holocene Optimum(s) (intervals between ~9,000 and ~5,000 BP) (see comparison graph here). Indeed for the vast majority of time since life began to flourish in the Cambrian Age, the earth has been hotter than the present time.
Estimate your probability that Belief 1 is correct _______.
2. Accelerating warming?
IPCC produced a graph presumably showing global warming rates on the increase (see Figure 1). The graph uses a well known trick. In any length of a rugose (noisy in appearance) data set, one will encounter short portions steeper (flatter or of opposite sign) than the length as a whole. If the steeper portion happens to be at the end of the data set, it will appear that the rate of change is accelerating when it is just the rugosity of the data. For example, the HadCRUT4 data series ending June, 1913 had 50, 25 and 15 year cooling rates of -0.42, -0.83 and -1.70 °C per century respectively. There was no predictive power in observing that cooling rates were strengthening. In fact, the world warmed after that, to about the year 1940, when it began to cool again.
The warming rate since 1998 has been essentially flat, so IPCC has decided not to update their Figure 1 in their last report. Apparently a slowdown in the short term warming rate has no predictive power. Only increases in short term warming rates have predictive power.
Figure 1. Global Mean Temperature from the IPCC AR4. All periods end in 2005 (source here)
When comparing warming rates, the lengths of the data sets should be held equal to prevent the filtering effect of longer lengths. Considering all series of 25 year in 154 year record of HadCRUT4 data, the maximum rate of warming ended in the month of February, 2007. It has slowed down since then, and since 1998, whether using HadCRUT4, NOAA, NASA, BEST, UAH or RSS data, there has been little warming. RSS data even shows some cooling. In fact, Ross McKitrick has indicated in a 2014 paper (see here) that the data demonstrates a statistically “trendless interval of a 19 years duration at the end of the HadCRUT4 surface temperature series, and of 16 – 26 years in the lower troposphere [UAH and RSS]”. The HadCRUT4 data also shows the warming rate for the last half the twentieth century slowing down compared to the first half.
Trend calculations for rugose data have no predictive power. To make predictions, one needs a model. The GCM’s are not up to the task and the failures have been well documented. Knappenberger and Michaels have shown (see here) that an average of 108 models have over predicted the rate of warming every year for the last 16 years straight and “the observed rise is nearly 66 percent less than climate model projections.”
Regional estimates for the GCM’s are even worse. Dr. Roy Spencer posted a graph comparing climate models to observations (four balloon and two satellite data sets) for the Topical Mid-Troposphere (see Figure 2). Even the model with the least rate of warming is well over the observed rate (for a spaghetti plot of the same, see here).
Figure 2. Tropical Mid-Troposphere 20S-20N 73 CMIP-5 Models and Observations Linear Trend 1979-2012 (source here)
The failure here is especially damaging to AGW theory as positive feedback due to increases in water vapor should have been the strongest in the tropical upper troposphere. Its absence there removes the “heart” of positive feedback mechanism on which AGW theory relies.
CO2 was estimated to be about 285 ppm in 1850 using Law Dome data (see here) and about 400 ppm in 2014 using Mauna Loa Observatory data. This implies that we would be approximately 40% of the way to doubling it. We have warmed about 0.79 °C since 1850 according to HadCRUT4 data. At the present rate CO2 should double from 1850 levels in about the year 2100 (to make your own estimate NOAA data here) implying another 1.2 °C raise by then, if the effect of CO2 is linear. If the effect of CO2 is logarithmic, temperatures would raise only about another 0.8°C by 2100. In addition, the previous calculation assumes that all warming over the past 165 years was due to CO2. If that is not the case, the implied warming will be proportionally less.
Estimate your probability that Belief 2 is correct _______.
3. Very harmful.
The case that global warming has caused a net harm to the world is very hard to make. Since 1950, life expectancy worldwide at birth has risen from about 47 years to about 75 years (see here). There is approximately twice the number of deaths from excessive cold weather than excessive heat (see table 4 Cumulative U.S. Deaths here). The world per capita GDP grew from 884 dollars in 1870 to 7,814 dollars in 2010 (see Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, Excel sheet here, website here). Increased temperature would reduce heating costs, but that would have only a trivial effect on GDP.
Food production per capita index has grown from about 78 in 1961 to about 105 in 2005 (see here). It is possible that the increase in temperature since 1961 has been partially responsible for increases in food production with an increase in the growing season length, but the temperature increase was so small as to have had little effect on this. The increase in atmospheric CO2 probably helped much more with agricultural production (see video here) than the small increase in temperature.
A much more important reason than temperature for the good numbers in life expectancy, GDP and food production is the use of fossil fuels to power transportation, electricity, farm and life saving equipment.
The IPCC warned of increased extreme weather events and increases in diseases such as malaria. However, there has been no trend in normalized hurricane damages, frequency of landfall or intensity since 1900 (see here). It has been over 9 years since the last major hurricane hit the USA on Oct. 24, 2005 (Wilma) – the longest spell on record without a major hurricane. Flooding has not increased in the United States over records of 85 to 127 years. There has been a decline in tornado devastation in the US, see here. Dr. David Legates testified: “…droughts in the United States are more frequent and more intense during colder periods.” AGU published a report: “Elevated carbon dioxide making arid regions greener” (also see video). Malaria – The World Health Organization said: “Increased prevention and control measures have led to a reduction in malaria mortality rates by 47% globally since 2000 and by 54% in the WHO African Region.” Worldwide death rates due to extreme weather have decline 97.9% since the 1920’s (see Figure 3).
Figure 3. Global Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900-2008 (source here)
If the increased global temperature had the potential of hurting us in some way, we are doing an excellent job of adaption and hiding any negative effects.
Estimate your probability that Belief 3 is correct _______.
4. CO2 to blame.
The Treaty’s solution to the “problem” does not include any other aspect than to limit GHG’s primarily from the reduction of CO2 from fossil fuel use. If the AGW is due to land use changes, changes in aerosols or changes in stratospheric ozone, by ignoring these, the treaty will fail to accomplish its goal. Likewise, if natural causes such as galactic cosmic rays, ocean turnover (AMO, PDO, etc.), and chaotic variations in cloud cover, etc., are important, the treaty will be ineffectual.
Methane is also a GHG, but has a small effect in relation to CO2, because of its minuscule amount in the atmosphere, and IPCC has been particularly poor at predicting its growth (see Figure 4). General Circulation Models using the IPCC predicted methane growth will over estimate global warming.
Figure 4. IPCC Modeled Grow in Methane vs. Observed (source here)
From 1010 to 1850 (which includes the MWP and LIA), CO2 levels varied by -5.6 to 4.3 from a mean value of 280.9 ppm according to Law Dome data. GCM’s which rely primarily on changes in CO2 have no chance of explaining the MWP or the LIA. Therefore, they lack important natural factors that influence the climate.
We have already seen some of the failures of the GCM’s with heavy reliance on CO2 to predict global average temperature and middle troposphere temperature (see discussion of Belief 2). They are also notably inaccurate in predicting regional temperature trends using CO2 (see Figure 5).
Figure 5. Modeled vs. Observed Global Surface Temperature Anomaly Trends. (Deg C/Year) 1880-2012. Map Contour Range = -0.025 to +0.025 Deg C/Year. Trend Maps Available from KNMI Climate Explorer (source here)
If the warming since 1850, or more importantly any future warming, it is caused mostly by natural variation or human causes other than GHG’s, then the treaty’s solution will not work.
Estimate your probability that Belief 4 is correct _______.
5. Can be controlled.
The contemplated treaty would regulate greenhouse gas emissions, mostly CO2 emissions. Here we will assume Belief 4 to be correct (that CO2 is the primary cause of warming) and also that there will be substantial compliance with the treaty (see Belief 7).
If this is the case, how long will it take a treaty to change atmospheric CO2 content? Humans are not the only contributor to CO2 in the atmosphere (nor the primary contributor, nor is CO2 the primary greenhouse gas (see Figures 6a and 6b). Antarctic ice cores would suggest that CO2 levels were rather constant until the 20th century, but plant stomata reconstructions suggest otherwise (see here and here) and 19th century laboratory measurements are highly varied (see here).
Figure 6a. CO2 Origins (source here) Figure 6b. Greenhouse Effect Based on Gas Concentrations and Adjusted for Heat Retention Characteristics (source here)
Some people estimate that we are already past a “tipping point”. If that is the case, wouldn’t it be better to concentrate our efforts on adaption?
If major CO2 producers (China, United States, India or Russia) or regions with high population grow (Africa or South America) do not enter into the Treaty, it is likely the CO2 reduced in those participating countries will just be offset by increases in the non-participating countries especially CO2 associated with manufacturing.
The question then becomes: can a treaty limit CO2 emissions and if so, will controlling CO2 emissions by a treaty control global temperatures?
Estimate your probability that Belief 5 is correct _______.
6. Better than the alternative.
The “0.8°C warming since 1880 is moderate, non-alarming, and coincides with dramatic improvements in life expectancy, health, and per capita income, and dramatic reductions in mortality related to extreme weather” (see here and Figure 7).
Figure 7. Global Progress, 1 A.D.-2009 A.D. (as indicated by trends in word population, gross domestic product per capita, life expectancy, and carbon dioxide [CO2] emissions from fossil fuels) (source here)
By estimates (based on IPCC accepted data), it is 50 times more costly to reduce CO2 emissions than to adapt to global warming, see website here or the following video.
Dr. Richard Tol, lead author for several IPCC Assessment Reports including the last one, has estimated that up to a 1°C additional increase in global temperatures would be beneficial to the world economy and a 2°C increase would be neutral (see Figure 8).
Figure 8. Fourteen Estimates of the Global Economic Impact of Climate Change (source here)
At the same time that current technology such as windmills, solar panels and electric cars has been proven to be ineffective in reducing CO2, even when given large subsidies, and with European governments such as Germany and Spain abandoning these subsidies, it is contended that no future technology, such as CO2 capture or solar radiation management (see here) will be feasible in the next 50 to 100 years. It is also contended that there is a “moral hazard” to such solutions at the same time ignoring any moral hazard in the fact that “[a]round 1.2 billion people worldwide—roughly the population of India—are still living without access to electricity with most concentrated in Africa and Asia. Another 2.8 billion rely on wood or other biomass for cooking and heating, resulting in indoor and outdoor air pollution attributable for 4.3 million deaths each year”. (From the World Bank, see here).
Estimate your probability that Belief 6 is correct _______.
7. No cheaters.
Canada and Australia have backed away from capping CO2 emissions, and even Germany recently abandoned its stringent targets for reduction.
Currently, China is the leading emitter of CO2 followed by the United States (see Figure 9). India is currently in third place, but both India and China have higher growth rates of emissions than the United States. Russia’s emissions are close to those of India.
Figure 9. 2008 Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion and some Industrial Processes (source here)
President Obama has negotiated an agreement with China in which China will aim to cap its CO2 emission by around 2030 if allowed to continue with its emissions growth until then, if in return the United States will cut its emission by more than a quarter by 2025 (see here). India, with half of its population without access to electricity, was not willing to agree even to the generous terms offered to China when Obama recently visited there.
The continent of Africa with the highest population growth in the world suffers the same lack of electricity as India, and South America, also with a high population growth, is only somewhat better off. Countries such as Brazil and Peru, currently with rather low CO2 emissions per capita have very strong growth rates in CO2 emissions (see more here).
The question is: can we rely on countries such as China, Russia, and African and South American autocracies to adhere to their commitments?
Estimate your probability that Belief 7 is correct _______.
Your Skeptic Score
As you may have guessed, your Warmist Score roughly corresponds to your estimate of the probability that a Kyoto type treaty is a good idea. A score of 0.00 makes you a skeptic’s skeptic and 1.00 makes you a believer’s believer.
Note: if you feel that anyone of the listed Beliefs is not necessary to support a treaty, simply assign a value of 1.00 to that Belief. That will effectively remove it from consideration.
Note for the statistically literate: You may not feel that every one of the Beliefs is independent of the other. If you do, feel free to use Bayesian inference to update your probabilities.
For the rest of us, if A and B are related, so that if A happens, B is more likely to happen, then the probability of both happening is more likely than simply taking the product of probability A and probability B considered separately. Since we are dealing with subjective probabilities here, and human nature being what it is, one will most likely over estimate the probability of B, having been prejudiced by having already considered A and thereby compensate somewhat for non-independent probabilities.
In any event, the score is only a crude estimate of where you fall on the Warmist/Skeptic scale.
David Swinehart has a BS in physics and MS in geophysics and 45 years experience as an exploration (oil and gas) geophysicist. He is currently semiretired.
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The problem is (whatever your “score” is), you are going to have to pay more Pesos out of your pocket for this climate scam. Or $USD or Euros, etc. That’s the problem, and the solution is to fight this with every breath in your body.
The species more than any other responsible for climate change is of course the tree.
Not mankind
Thanks Leo, the minute I read that?? , Guess what? My father would have said the same thing ( his name ? Leo Smit ), thanks great memories, he had a “green” thumb the realistic way.
Does anyone have a serious study – best with pictures and figures – of how the planet has greened? A powerful argument. I can’t rely on the observed leaves I sweep up in my garden over the last 40 years ‘cos the ‘increase’ could be (a) the trees have grown (b) I’m 40 years older.
Those who support Kyoto and its progeny are fundamentally climate change deniers. They deny not only the Medieval Warm period and other substantial variations in climate over history, but also they deny the recent data of warming from 1910 to 1940 and cooling from 1960 to 1975. They deny the current pause. They deny the absurd inaccuracy of the various “models” as measured against reality. They deny the fact that the science is so unsettled that the “experts” had to change the phrase “global warming” to “climate change” because they are not even sure whether fossil fuel use makes the planet warmer or cooler.
Only a disciple of Orwellian Doublespeak would call those who address the fundamental facts “skeptics” instead of the realists that we are.
It seems pretty basic to me. Theoretically, man-made carbon dioxide emissions might cause some warming, but the extent and rate are completely unknown and totally unpredictable at this point. It is undeniable that the planet warms and cools naturally, and historically has done so to a much greater extent than during any post-industrial period of time. The understanding of the causes and extent of natural climate change is virtually nil, and therefore it is virtually impossible to understand the extent and causes of anthropogenic climate change, if any. Moreover, given the possibility that global cooling of the 60’s and early 70’s was caused partially by emissions other than carbon dioxide (eg., sulfur dioxide), it seems clear enough to me that the alarmists have either identified the wrong variable or they are missing other variables in their theory, both man-made and natural variables that if considered might lead to models that at least could explain in part past data.
Conclusion: the global warming alarmists are deniers of basic facts and inherently unreliable “scientists” worthy of scorn rather than skepticism.
Mr. Vox Clams,
“Conclusion: the global warming alarmists are deniers of basic facts and inherently unreliable “scientists” worthy of scorn rather than skepticism.”
Yes!
I tried to start a “hoax denier” meme, but it did not catch on.
I agree that these are the people who are really in deep…um… denial.
If they know the truth and are lying, they deny science and honesty. For the ones who are cowed into believing by their blind adherence to the stated “beliefs” of the “experts”, they are willingly engaging in a logical fallacy, and are thus deniers of logic and reason.
The scoring makes no sense.
0.95 Unprecedented global warming caused by humans
0.5 Accelerating warming
0.8 Very harmful
0.5 CO2 to blame
0.1 Can be controlled
0.5 Better than the alternative
0 No cheaters
… which makes my score zero even though I think global warming is real and dangerous and that we’re unlikely to be able to solve it.
Someone didn’t think this through at all.
The issue is whether the agreement at Paris is worth the cost.
Since you admit that there is no chance of preventing cheaters, then the agreement is a waste of time, regardless of how you feel about the other issues.
I agree that there is no chance that there will not be cheaters. If I was a warmist I would tend to think that even if there were some cheaters an agreement could be very worthwhile. I that case I wouldn’t see no cheaters as a requirement for a successful conference, I therefore would mark it as 1.0 and thus remove it from consideration.
I am however, not a warmist and think that unprecedented global warming caused by humans is 0.0, and is accelerating is 0.0, but the too may not be required for this conference.
33% ____ Unprecedented global warming caused by humans
5% ____ Accelerating warming
5% ____ Very harmful
50% ____ CO2 to blame
5% ____ Can be controlled
5% ____ Better than the alternative
5% ____ No cheaters
0.00001% ____ Warmist Score
99.99999% ____ Skeptic Score
Do-it-yourself climate science:
Prove Al Gore and the consensus are wrong.
Prove AGW is a mistake.
Prove the ‘war on coal’ is misguided.
Prove CO2 has no significant effect on climate.
Prove climate sensitivity (the increase in AGT due to doubling of CO2) is not significantly different from zero
Right here. Right now.
Only existing temperature and CO2 data are used. Fundamental understanding of math and its relation to the physical world are assumed.
The CO2 level (or some math function thereof) has been suspected of being a forcing. The fundamental math is that temperature changes with the time-integral of a forcing (not the forcing itself). For example, a bloc of metal over a burner heats up slowly, responding to the time-integral of the net forcing (heat from the burner minus the heat loss from convection and radiation). Add a blanket over the block (a ‘step change’ to the loss) and the block temperature increases to a new steady state temperature but the temperature increases slowly (in response to the time-integral).
Existing data includes temperature and CO2 determined from Vostok, Antarctica (or any other) ice cores for at least a full glacial or inter-glacial period. If CO2 is a forcing, the temperature should change as a transient following CO2 level change instead of temperature and CO2 level going up and down in ‘lock step’ as has been determined from measurements and is widely reported.
Existing temperature and CO2 (Berner, 2001) assessments for the entire Phanerozoic eon (about 542 million years) are graphed at http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
Pick any two points separated in time that have the same average global temperature (AGT) anomaly. The cumulative forcing is the time-integral of the forcing (or a function thereof) times a scale factor. Because the AGT at the beginning and end of the time period are the same and the time-integral of the forcing is not zero, the scale factor must be zero. As a consequence, the effect of the forcing is zero.
Granted that if the math function consists of an anomaly with respect to a ‘break-even’ CO2 level, a ‘break-even level could be determined to make the beginning and ending temperatures equal, but pick another time period with equal beginning and ending temperatures but different from the first pick and a different ‘break-even’ level might be calculated. Since the possibility of many different ‘break-even’ levels is ludicrous, the conclusion that CO2 has no significant effect on AGT prevails and something else is causing the temperature change.
A somewhat different approach to the proof showing that CO2 has no significant effect on climate and also identification of the two main factors that do (95% correlation since before 1900) are disclosed at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com
I agree with your conclusions below, but Leif would say you’re using outdated SSNs. While some skeptics suspect that his project to rejigger the sunspot counting system is motivated by a desire to support climate alarmism, I think not.
I’d greatly appreciate your redoing your work using his system to see if it makes a difference.
Thanks.
Conclusions
Others that have looked at only amplitude or only duration factors for solar cycles got poor correlations with average global temperature. The good correlation comes by combining the two, which is what the time-integral of sunspot number anomalies does. As shown in Figure 2, the temperature anomaly trend determined using the sunspot number anomaly time-integral has experienced substantial change over the recorded period. Prediction of future sunspot numbers more than a decade or so into the future has not yet been confidently done although assessments using planetary synodic periods appear to be relevant 7,8.
As displayed in Figure 2, the time-integral of sunspot number anomalies alone appears to show the estimated true average global temperature trend (the net average global energy trend) during the planet warm up from the depths of the Little Ice Age.
The net effect of ocean oscillations is to cause the surface temperature trend to oscillate above and below the trend calculated using only the sunspot number anomaly time-integral. Equation (2) accounts for both and also, because it matches measurements so well, shows that rational change to the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide can have no significant influence.
Long term prediction of average global temperatures depends primarily on long term prediction of sunspot numbers.
There is some good things here, but it does not cover all the problems of mitigation policy. It is not just the technological and cheating aspects that will stop policy from being effective. There is also the planning, policy optimization and project management aspects that need to be considered. A big issue is the token gestures, or the environmental regulations that do nothing to reduce CO2, but impose unnecessary costs. Another is that massive change will provide vast opportunities for extraordinary profits (such as in wind and solar) or for outright corruption, such as in carbon trading. The knowledge required to optimize policy and minimize the profiteering aspect often does not exist.
Further to the above, I looked at the logic of why climate mitigation policies will always fail early last year.
http://manicbeancounter.com/2014/02/23/why-climate-change-mitigation-policies-will-always-fail/
One aspect I point out is the marginal impact of joining the policy countries. If only some countries have policy, then they will bear the costs of policy AND much of the long-term costs of global warming.
This I put forward graphically in a series of posts.
http://manicbeancounter.com/category/climate-change/1st-draft/
In particular, I discuss the problems of a country whether to join or not in this post/
http://manicbeancounter.com/2013/10/05/3-the-mitigation-policy-curve-part-1/
A proper theoretical economist would be able to do a demonstration from game theory of why it would not work. The problem for governments is no policy is optimal except the cynical one. Make vague commitments and token gestures, but nothing real. Whether in a country is democratic or autocratic, putting through highly damaging policies will undermine their power base, especially without a clear threat.
In the section on “No Cheaters”, there is a pie chart of global emissions in 2008. But the picture is changing. When emissions reduction policies were first proposed back in 1990 there was a clear global split. Thirds of global emissions came from either the rich OECD countries, or the ex-Warsaw Pact countries, with 25% of the global population. So a drastic reduction in global emissions to 1990 levels (a Stern Review target) allowed the mass of the world (what used to be called the Third World) to still grow their emissions.
http://manicbeancounter.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/012515_2323_globalemiss1.jpg?w=600
Projecting forward to 2020, the picture has changed dramatically. Population has increased by 2.4 billion or 45% and emissions by over 80%. Global average emissions per capita have increased from 4.1 to 5.2t/CO2 per capita. Due to the population increase, to return global emissions to 1990 levels would mean reducing average emissions per capita to 2.85t/CO2.
http://manicbeancounter.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/012515_2323_globalemiss2.jpg?w=900
It gets even worse if you look at the UNIPCC’s climate targets to avoid the dangerous two degrees of global warming. It means reducing global emissions per capita to 1.1t/CO2 by 2050, or nearly 80%. For the USA is is nearly 95%, and for China over 85%.
http://manicbeancounter.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/012515_2323_globalemiss3.jpg?w=900
A fuller description is at http://manicbeancounter.com/2015/01/25/global-emissions-reductions-targets-for-cop21-paris-2015/
This is the sort of statistical trickery I would expect from Cook, Mann, or Gore. To see it, invert the scale, Make your answer your estimate of the probability the statement is false. The product of your answers is your skeptical score and the complement is your CAGW score.
But the presentation might get a few CAGW believers to pause and consider the logic of their fantasy. Some of that few might even draw a logical conclusion. We can hope.
Thank you for your comment, Chuck.
I would like to reply in a reasoned fashion, but first an aside. Introducing your comment with argumentum ad hominem (“This is the sort of statistical trickery I would expect from Cook, Mann, or Gore.”) does not strength your argument, but rather detracts from it. The reader might conclude that you are prone to fallacious reasoning.
Now to consider your point: let’s “[m]ake your answer your estimate of the probability the statement is false”. Further assume that you rate every statement being false as 0.9 (feel free to substitute your own estimates), then the product will be approximately 0.48.
Are you then 48% certain that the Paris Treaty should be rejected? Clearly, the answer to that is no. You are 48% certain that ALL the statements are false. If ANY statement is false, the Treaty should be rejected – not ALL need to be false. What you wish to know is the probability that ALL the statements are TRUE.
If you wish to attack the approach, you could:
1. Object to definition I am using here for a Warmist (the probability that you believe the Paris Treaty is a good idea).
2. That All statements have to true.
3. That the selection of statements should be augmented, diminished or changed.
The point being made here is that to be Warmist you must believe a whole host of things. To be a skeptic you only have to be skeptical about one of the beliefs.
Of course, you may have some other ideas. Please share them with us and please be courteous.
David Swinehart
Catherine R – It couldn’t hurt to see what would result. I would need Svalgaard’s numerical data to plug in to the spreadsheet. I looked at his pdf on renumbering. He shows high correlation between old and new so I don’t expect much change in findings (climate change depends primarily on SSN anomaly time-integral plus ocean cycle approximation. CO2 has no significant effect). Of course the coefficients in the equation would be different. It would be interesting to see what happens to R^2. (Leif, I promise to attend to the integration range)
Realize that this exercise would have no effect on the proof that CO2 has no significant effect on climate.
I’m thinking that, although perhaps we can agree that the multiplication of the seven factors yields a probability (assuming independence of the factors, etc), it may not yield enough separation to give a decent measure of overall skepticism.
As some of the replies have suggested, perhaps the average of the probabilities would be a better indicator of skepticism to the IPCC position.
Scanned thru this (I regret I didn’t study every word) but I remember NO mention or discussion of the variations in solar activity which, since the earth gets virtually ALL of its energy by radiation from this source, obviously has a major effect on global temperature and climate. According to what I read in grad school the earth reflects a major fraction of this total incident energy. It follows that small changes in the earth’s albedo OR – and this is HUGH – the suns output variation with time can cause major temperature changes with respect to time.
Has ANYONE effectively shown/”proved” that solar energy variations are NOT the cause of the various temperature cycles the earth has experienced with or without human presence? It is obvious that solar activity variations COULD account for the changes. Whether or not they did is worthy of a great deal of careful study and discussion.
The human ego seems to know no limits. It occurs to me that much of this discussion follows the presumption that man CAN cause effects such as these on a global scale. There is no evidence the presumption is valid.