NOAA ENSO Model Now Forecasting a Supercalifragilistic El Niño for 2015/16 Season

There has been a less than expected response by the atmosphere to the oceanic, surface warmth in the Pacific. In fact, the atmosphere over the US this past Winter, acted like it thought we were in a La Nina.
The huge, surprising spike higher in the PDO over the last year, may have peaked in December 2014(2.5) but at +1.5 in March, is still high. Surprising, because it’s coming during a -PDO phase(which is either ending prematurely or doing like the late 1950’s and spiking higher, then going back to a -PDO regime for another 15 years or so).
The only other time we saw +PDO index values this high was in 1997/98 in tandem with the Great El Nino.
Maybe the AMO signal has been more powerful than the PDO recently for US weather.

It is a fact that the solar magnetic cycle has been interrupted. An analogue of what to expect next is the 8200 BP (before present) abrupt cooling event.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event#/media/File:Greenland_Gisp2_Temperature.svg
The cult of CAWG would most certainly use a El Nino event or a drought or high rainfall or high snowfall or regional cold weather as further proof that we must spend trillions of dollars on green scams that do not work. I am not sure how they could use a significant drop in planetary temperature as further proof of CAGW.
It is a fact there is cyclic significant warming and cooling (sometimes abrupt cooling events) in the paleo record that correlate with solar cycle changes. The sun is the cause of the majority of the cyclic climate change in the paleo record, including the majority of the warming observed in the last 150 years.
If there is a significant drop in planetary temperature, there will need to be a very quick sciency sounding explanation. There will be much hand wringing as it becomes obvious that the entire set of IPCC assertions were incorrect. We then will need to quickly accept the end of CAGW and quickly move on to discuss an unimaginable climate change scenario. We will need to discuss the implications of significant and dangerous abrupt cooling. It appears a Heinrich event will immediately follow the initial Dansgaard-Oschger cooling. If that assertion is correct we need to determine timing, magnitude, and start making changes to mitigate consequences.
There is a miss understanding, a urban myth, that the glacial/interglacial cycle occurs due to tiny forcing changes (summer insolation changes at 65N for example or a stoppage of the North Atlantic drift current) that are serendipitously amplified by a smart amplification mechanism that appears when required to end and start interglacial periods and then serendipitously disappears to avoid creating large, abrupt planetary temperature oscillations when there is a short term major forcing change such as super volcano eruption. Ridiculous urban legends are accepted as it difficult to even contemplate the possibility that the sun and the stars are fundamentally different than assumed.
P.S.
The 8200 BP event was not caused by a stoppage or a slowdown of the North Atlantic drift current. The assertion that a stoppage or slowdown of the North Atlantic drift current could cause the a significant drop in winter temperatures in Europe and in the Greenland Ice sheet is an urban myth.
http://sheridan.geog.kent.edu/geog41066/7-Overpeck.pdf

ABRUPT CHANGE IN EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM
The earliest Holocene abrupt climate changes occurred at 12,800, 8200, 5200, and 4200 B.P. . . .”
The 8200 B.P. event, “lasted four hundred years (6400-6000 B.C.) and, like the Younger Dryas, generated abrupt aridification and cooling in the North Atlantic and North America, Africa, and Asia (Alley et al. 1997; Barber et al. 1999; Hu et al. 1999; Street-Perrot and Perrot 1990).

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=24476

Glacial Records Depict Ice Age Climate in Synch Worldwide
An answer to the long-standing riddle of whether the Earth’s ice ages occurred simultaneously in both the Southern and Northern hemispheres is emerging from the glacial deposits found in the high desert east of the Andes.
Because the Earth is oriented in space in such a way that the hemispheres are out of phase in terms of the amount of solar radiation they receive, it is surprising to find that the climate in the Southern Hemisphere cooled off repeatedly during a period when it received its largest dose of solar radiation,” says Singer. “Moreover, this rapid synchronization of atmospheric temperature between the polar hemispheres appears to have occurred during both of the last major ice ages that gripped the Earth.