Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A new paper published in Nature pours cold water on the idea that a sudden melting of arctic permafrost might cause a spike in global temperatures.
The abstract from the paper;
Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
Unfortunately the main paper is paywalled, but I think we get the general idea. And unless the climate starts to warm again, we won’t even get the slow release predicted by the authors of the paper.
For the last few years, alarmists have been test marketing various ideas to replace the failed carbon scare, with mostly unencouraging results. Methane appeared to be one of the big hopes, but this new paper eliminates any serious possibility that the “permafrost bomb” will be a viable replacement for the carbon scare.