Inconvenient study: Seafloor volcano pulses may alter climate – models may be wrong

New data show strikingly regular patterns, from weeks to eons

seafloor-volcanoes

This topographic map of Earth’s ocean floor in the Atlantic ocean reveals thousands of sub-oceanic volcanoes along the mid-Atlantic ridge. Source: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6205/32.summary

From The Earth Institute at Columbia University:

Vast ranges of volcanoes hidden under the oceans are presumed by scientists to be the gentle giants of the planet, oozing lava at slow, steady rates along mid-ocean ridges. But a new study shows that they flare up on strikingly regular cycles, ranging from two weeks to 100,000 years–and, that they erupt almost exclusively during the first six months of each year. The pulses–apparently tied to short- and long-term changes in earth’s orbit, and to sea levels–may help trigger natural climate swings. Scientists have already speculated that volcanic cycles on land emitting large amounts of carbon dioxide might influence climate; but up to now there was no evidence from submarine volcanoes. The findings suggest that models of earth’s natural climate dynamics, and by extension human-influenced climate change, may have to be adjusted. The study appears this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“People have ignored seafloor volcanoes on the idea that their influence is small–but that’s because they are assumed to be in a steady state, which they’re not,” said the study’s author, marine geophysicist Maya Tolstoy of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “They respond to both very large forces, and to very small ones, and that tells us that we need to look at them much more closely.” A related study by a separate team this week in the journal Science bolsters Tolstoy’s case by showing similar long-term patterns of submarine volcanism in an Antarctic region Tolstoy did not study.

Volcanically active mid-ocean ridges crisscross earth’s seafloors like stitching on a baseball, stretching some 37,000 miles. They are the growing edges of giant tectonic plates; as lavas push out, they form new areas of seafloor, which comprise some 80 percent of the planet’s crust. Conventional wisdom holds that they erupt at a fairly constant rate–but Tolstoy finds that the ridges are actually now in a languid phase. Even at that, they produce maybe eight times more lava annually than land volcanoes. Due to the chemistry of their magmas, the carbon dioxide they are thought to emit is currently about the same as, or perhaps a little less than, from land volcanoes–about 88 million metric tons a year. But were the undersea chains to stir even a little bit more, their CO2 output would shoot up, says Tolstoy.

Some scientists think volcanoes may act in concert with Milankovitch cycles–repeating changes in the shape of earth’s solar orbit, and the tilt and direction of its axis–to produce suddenly seesawing hot and cold periods. The major one is a 100,000-year cycle in which the planet’s orbit around the sun changes from more or less an annual circle into an ellipse that annually brings it closer or farther from the sun. Recent ice ages seem to build up through most of the cycle; but then things suddenly warm back up near the orbit’s peak eccentricity. The causes are not clear.

Enter volcanoes. Researchers have suggested that as icecaps build on land, pressure on underlying volcanoes also builds, and eruptions are suppressed. But when warming somehow starts and the ice begins melting, pressure lets up, and eruptions surge. They belch CO2 that produces more warming, which melts more ice, which creates a self-feeding effect that tips the planet suddenly into a warm period. A 2009 paper from Harvard University says that land volcanoes worldwide indeed surged six to eight times over background levels during the most recent deglaciation, 12,000 to 7,000 years ago. The corollary would be that undersea volcanoes do the opposite: as earth cools, sea levels may drop 100 meters, because so much water gets locked into ice. This relieves pressure on submarine volcanoes, and they erupt more. At some point, could the increased CO2 from undersea eruptions start the warming that melts the ice covering volcanoes on land?

That has been a mystery, partly because undersea eruptions are almost impossible to observe. However, Tolstoy and other researchers recently have been able to closely monitor 10 submarine eruption sites using sensitive new seismic instruments. They have also produced new high-resolution maps showing outlines of past lava flows. Tolstoy analyzed some 25 years of seismic data from ridges in the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans, plus maps showing past activity in the south Pacific.

The long-term eruption data, spread over more than 700,000 years, showed that during the coldest times, when sea levels are low, undersea volcanism surges, producing visible bands of hills. When things warm up and sea levels rise to levels similar to the present, lava erupts more slowly, creating bands of lower topography. Tolstoy attributes this not only to the varying sea level, but to closely related changes in earth’s orbit. When the orbit is more elliptical, Earth gets squeezed and unsqueezed by the sun’s gravitational pull at a rapidly varying rate as it spins daily–a process that she thinks tends to massage undersea magma upward, and help open the tectonic cracks that let it out. When the orbit is fairly (though not completely) circular, as it is now, the squeezing/unsqueezing effect is minimized, and there are fewer eruptions.

The idea that remote gravitational forces influence volcanism is mirrored by the short-term data, says Tolstoy. She says the seismic data suggest that today, undersea volcanoes pulse to life mainly during periods that come every two weeks. That is the schedule upon which combined gravity from the moon and sun cause ocean tides to reach their lowest points, thus subtly relieving pressure on volcanoes below. Seismic signals interpreted as eruptions followed fortnightly low tides at eight out of nine study sites. Furthermore, Tolstoy found that all known modern eruptions occur from January through June. January is the month when Earth is closest to the sun, July when it is farthest–a period similar to the squeezing/unsqueezing effect Tolstoy sees in longer-term cycles. “If you look at the present-day eruptions, volcanoes respond even to much smaller forces than the ones that might drive climate,” she said.

Daniel Fornari, a senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution not involved in the research, called the study “a very important contribution.” He said it was unclear whether the contemporary seismic measurements signal actual lava flows or just seafloor rumbles and cracking. But, he said, the study “clearly could have important implications for better quantifying and characterizing our assessment of climate variations over decadal to tens to hundreds of thousands of years cycles.”

Edward Baker, a senior ocean scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said, “The most interesting takeaway from this paper is that it provides further evidence that the solid Earth, and the air and water all operate as a single system.”

###

The research for this paper was funded in large part by the U.S. National Science Foundation.

Copies of the paper, “Mid-ocean ridge eruptions as a climate valve” are available from the author, or the Earth Institute press office. (I have a request in for a copy and will post excerpts when it is supplied -Anthony Update: The author kindly provided a pre-print copy, linked belowm plus a selected figure, note the uptick in the present)

Mid-ocean ridge eruptions as a climate valve

Maya Tolstoy

Abstract:

Seafloor eruption rates, and mantle melting fueling eruptions, may be influenced by sea-level and crustal loading cycles at scales from fortnightly to 100 kyr. Recent mid-ocean ridge eruptions occur primarily during neap tides and the first 6 months of the year, suggesting sensitivity to minor changes in tidal forcing and orbital eccentricity. An ~100kyr periodicity in fast-spreading seafloor bathymetry, and relatively low present-day eruption rates, at a time of high sea-level and decreasing orbital eccentricity suggest a longer term sensitivity to sea-level and orbital variations associated with Milankovitch cycles. Seafloor spreading is considered a small but steady contributor of CO2 to climate cycles on the 100 kyr time scale, however this assumes a consistent short-term eruption rate. Pulsing of seafloor volcanic activity may feed back into climate cycles, possibly contributing to glacial/inter-glacial cycles, the abrupt end of ice ages, and dominance of the 100 kyr cycle.

The paper: Tolstoy_inpress_GRL_2015 (PDF)

Tolstoy figure 3A:

tolstoy_figure3a

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AP

Once again, scientists show that they have no idea that correlation does not imply causation. That giant orb in the sky has the most profound impact on our climate, period.

Gary Pearse

AP, please don’t join the huge ranks that spout this idea wrongly about correlation not implying causation. It is a caution that correlation is not a slam dunk for causation. However, if there is NO correlation in some manner with an hypothesized cause, then such cause can be rejected as a factor in a phenonenon. You NEED correlation to attract your notice to a possibility. So (apparent) correlation is not enough to rest your laurels on UNTIL you can demonstrate and predict using this correlation. Now it might be a negative correlation or it might be partly confounded by other significant effects, but it should get your juices flowing tentatively while you investigate it further (design an experiment usually). Tides and the moon come to mind as an excellent example. After this idea has been had and investigated, one finds something not entirely satisfactory about it, its variability. However,on further study, when we add in the net effects of sun AND moon, we say aha, there is a correlation that underpins the behavior of tides.

skorrent1

Which is a rather long way of saying “Causation requires correlation, but correlation does not necessarily imply causation.”

Yes, but you get lots of spurious correlations with time-series data, which is why econometricians test for “Granger causality”. Since all of climate-related data is time-series data, climatologists should upgrade their statistical methods.
Based on an econometric technique called polynomial cointegration analysis an Israeli group concluded, “We have shown that anthropogenic forcings do not polynomially cointegrate with global temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, data for 1880–2007 do not support the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming during this period.”
Beenstock, Reingewertz, and Paldor, Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 561–596, 2012
I believe there was some discussion online and the authors made some minor modifications to their statements.
URL: http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/3/561/2012/esdd-3-561-2012.html
Engle and Granger (1987) is the seminal paper on cointegration and perhaps the most cited paper in the history of econometrics, treating specification, representation, estimation and testing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granger_causality

StefanL

Skorrent1:
Strictly speaking (using the language of propositional logic), causation implies correlation. 🙂

Gary –
Amen.
Good points. Correlation is a good pointer, making such a connection worthy of further investigation.
And these undersea volcanoes are something I’ve hoped to see investigated for quite some time. If I had a few extra million dollars lying around, I’d do it myself!

Fred: “Yes, but you get lots of spurious correlations with time-series data, which is why econometricians test for “Granger causality”.
Agreed, meaning that to determine “spuriousness” further investigation is needed on each possibly real/possibly spurious correlation, in order to weed out the wannabes. THAT is when – an WHY – the real-world, empirical science is needed, to see if the numbers are stroking us. (And, I would add, why models alone are not good enough.)

richardscourtney

Gary Pearse
You say

AP, please don’t join the huge ranks that spout this idea wrongly about correlation not implying causation. It is a caution that correlation is not a slam dunk for causation. However, if there is NO correlation in some manner with an hypothesized cause, then such cause can be rejected as a factor in a phenonenon. You NEED correlation to attract your notice to a possibility.

Sorry, but no.
Correlation does NOT imply causation. But absence of correlation indicates lack of direct causation.
This is because existence of a prerequisite for something indicates the possibility of that something but does not imply the reality of the something.
There are several reasons for correlation and a causal relationship is one of them. Therefore, the presence of correlation indicates the possibility of a causal relationship but does not imply the causal relationship exists. And only possible causal relationships are investigated.
Similarly, a person who was present at the scene and time of a crime may be the criminal, but his presence does not imply he is the criminal when others could also have been present at the time of the crime. And only possible perpetrators of the crime are investigated.
Richard

Joe

I would argue you do not need correlation to have causation. All things are possible.

Duster

AP, the “causal mechanism” seems to tidal, and as pointed out, it correlates to the MIlankovitch cycles, which are in fact related to cyclic changes in the relationship between the planet and the sun. The “giant orb in the sky” powers the climate. What we lack so far, just ask Willis Leif, is a clear correlation between changes in the solar constant and weather. If the linkage indirect – i.e. gravitational rather than via radiation – that would explain a great deal about the real complexity of the climate system. Personally I doubt there is such a thing as “climate.” It is all just weather.

Robert B

Strictly speaking, climate is the typical seasonal weather due to latitude and the difference in insolation because of it.
How the seasonal weather changes at a particular climate depends on ocean currents so you can have correlation between volcanic eruptions and “global climate” but one is not necessarily affected by the other. I do think that the simplest explanation would be that the orbit affects both.

There is also case of non-stationary and transitory correlations, which I often find in the climate and solar data. When sufficient variable energy is injected in the climate system, certain feedbacks of both types, positive and negative kick in, suppressing the previously existing correlation. Once that energy is dissipated in various ways, the feedbacks die down and correlation pops out again.
The resident experts typical response is correlation broken! case unsound, worthless etc…’

Gary, there is not a single thing wrong with what I said. I will repeat it again. Correlation does not imply causation. You ‘re right that it may indicate a causal relationship, on the other hand it may not. It could be completely arse about, or related to a third, totally independent variable. I’d love to be on the other side of your stock trades if you think otherwise.

Correlation always implies causation; the better the correlation, the better the implication. The science of statistics only has relevance because of this. Science is based on cause and effect; cause and effect can only be assumed by apparent correlation. Baby stands in crib, flips switch, light turns on. Baby assumes he did it, and repeats the experiment several hundred times, till light burns out, then allows for possibility of previously unknown external factors.
Rooster crows, sun comes up. Rooster takes credit, correlation is high. Roosters all around the world keep it turning till the sun is over the Pacific. No more roosters. So we explain the correlation some other way. Maybe the roosters see a bit of morning light. Maybe they’re just hungry after a night of fasting. Maybe they want to roust the hens. Who knows, but the correlation is good, and cause and effect may be safely assumed. –AGF

Shineon

agfosterjr said, “Correlation always implies causation; the better the correlation, the better the implication. The science of statistics only has relevance because of this. Science is based on cause and effect; cause and effect can only be assumed by apparent correlation. Baby stands in crib, flips switch, light turns on. Baby assumes he did it, and repeats the experiment several hundred times, till light burns out, then allows for possibility of previously unknown external factors.”
This is missing one important factor. Correlation plus logical relationship plus sequence implies causation. You cannot have the effect precede the cause. Light turns on, baby stands in crib, flips switch would be correlataon without causation because of the temporal disassociation between effect and cause – unless that would imply that the light turning on causes the baby to flip the switch.. Sort of the way paleo CO2 and paleo temperature correlate but in that record, temperature rise precedes CO2 – implying that if there is causation, it’s temperature rise causing CO2 rise. But that’s another argument for another day. The point is, without having some sort of relationship already established, *and* some temporal consistency between proposed cause and proposed effect, then the correlation is just a correlation and cannot imply causation.
Without a logical relationship and a temporal sequence, causation is indeterminate and cannot be implied.
For example, Annual average CO2 forcing 1950-2013 and the annual US national debt outstanding 1950-2013 has an r-squared of 0.83. I don’t think anyone without a tinfoil hat would consider there might be causation implied in this correlation, even if a temporal sequence of CO2 forcing preceding national debt increase were to be established.

AP

“When warming somehow starts”… CO2 is belched into the atmosphere which creates the warming that somehow started before any CO2 was belched.

GeologyJim

This strikes me as another tail-chasing exercise, implicitly founded on the presumption that CO2 is “The Big Control Knob”. Sad to say, numerous other geologists have been sucked into this fallacy and have tried to force-fit it as an explanation for K-T extinctions, PETM warmth, the Younger Dryas temp oscillations, and all manner of climate variations. All devolve into cases of “special pleading”, which I learned 50 years ago is not how Science is supposed to be practiced.
C’mon folks, the ice-core records show unequivocally that T moves (up or down) long before CO2 follows.
18+ years of no global warming while CO2 has risen 10+ percent = CO2 doesn’t matter
Again, CO2 doesn’t matter
Again, CO2 doesn’t matter
Again, CO2 doesn’t matter

I’ve been going on about it for years
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EAS.gif

MCourtney

If anyone here is new, he has too.
Vukcevic has been saying this for years.

When submarine volcanic/tectonic activity is mentioned many people immediately think of thermal energy, CO2 and aerosols. I don’t think it is any of the above, the most likely is the interference with the ocean currents. Areas of interest are where both the warm and cold currents ( at different depths) cross over the active regions. In the North Atlantic that would be just south and north of Iceland (Reykjanes and Kolbensey ridges).

Jimbo

On ocean currents…..

Rapid atmospheric CO2 variations and ocean circulation
U. Siegenthaler & Th. Wenk
Physics Institute, University of Bern, CH–3012 Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Switzerland
Studies on air trapped in old polar ice1,2 have shown that during the last ice age, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was probably significantly lower than during the Holocene—about 200 p.p.m. rather than 270 p.p.m. Also, Stauffer et al. 3 recently showed by detailed analyses of Greenland ice cores, that during the ice age, between about 30,000 and 40,000 yr BP, the atmospheric CO2 level probably varied between 200 and 260 p.p.m. These variations occurred parallel to climatic variations as indicated by δ18O of the ice; astonishingly, the changes took place within rather short times, no more than a few centuries or even less. Here we examine the hypothesis4 that CO2 variations arose from changes in ocean circulation that affected the distribution of chemical properties and thus of P CO 2 in the surface waters of the world ocean. Such changes can take place in a rather short time, in contrast to changes of whole ocean properties.

Bob Boder

Vukcevic says
“I don’t think it is any of the above, the most likely is the interference with the ocean currents”
I think this is a very strong arguement
And during and ice age when the oceans are lower there is no mechanism to transfer heat to the poles, explaining the stability and length of the ice ages.
the only question is what is the mechanism the brings us out of the ice age in the first place?

Jimbo –
Nice paper link. It might be worth noting that this paper was 1984 – before the global warming “thing” had taken hold of climatologists.
The opening line of the body text reads,

The ocean is the greatest of the rapidly exchanging global carbon reservoirs and therefore effectively controls the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide over time scales of less than 10^5 years.

Perhaps something someone here might want to flesh out… Above my head stuff to produce, though I can comprehend it well enough when it’s put before me.

vukcevic, other than the horizontal axis, I don’t understand your graph. You’re showing a correlation between three things over the last 150 years, but what are they, exactly?

Tectonics – a numerical index I compiled from various sources such as USGS, Smithsonian etc
Atmospheric pressure – in hPa, available from NOAA
Sea Surface temperature – in degree C, available from NOAA.

Atmospheric pressure?!? Huh? Over 140 years? Atmospheric pressure where?

I don’t think you have claimed that tidal forces modulate the amount of CO2 thereby modulating the climate.

Hi doc, I am really pleased to see you are back, honest !
No, indeed I have not, that would be nonsense. If professor Maya Tolstoy (such a lovely name) is calming to be so, perhaps the oceanic ‘yasnaya polyana’ isn’t as yet very clear to her.
See my comment above

John Francis

Surely the CO2 is a result of the sea temperature, not a cause.

gbaikie

Well what about this increase in eccentricity *adding* heat to earth core.
Or Europa is frozen Jupiter moon which is heated by it’s eccentric orbit with Jupiter.
And Earth’s core is hot, because of primordial heat from formation, radioactive decay of Earth core, Lunar tidal forces, AND the varying tidal force of the Sun which happens with Earth’s periodic varying eccentricity.
Also they talk about volcanic activity emitting CO2, it seems that the mere warming of ocean water will cause the ocean out gas more of it’s CO2. From heating plus the heat increasing the up welling of cold water which have higher levels of CO2.

ren

Seismic activity is associated with geomagnetic activity.

Johanus

Vukcevic, could you please explain what you are plotting here? What are the ‘tectonics’? What pressure and temperature records are you using? Thanks.

Johanus

I assume that you are not merely picking data that happen to correlate well with each other. That would be spurious.

vukcevic at February 5, 2015 at 12:39 pm
[delete this ? .mod]

you mean ‘cherry picking’ a widespread syndrome present throughout the ‘climate science’

Johanus

…’cherry picking’…
Sorry, no offense intended. Let me rephrase the question: how would others reproduce your results?
And do you have any insights to the mechanisms at play here? How well does it generalize?

Not offended at all, it is general practice of showing the variables that support the claim.
For insights to the mechanisms at play here see my comment above:
vukcevic February 5, 2015 at 12:33 pm

Christopher Paino

How do we know if these three things are correlating with each other, or they are all correlating because of some other unseen force? I mean is one of these acting on the other two, or is something bigger than all of them causing all the ruckus?

The Earth is immersed in the continually changing gravitational and magnetic fields of the solar system. Although we do understand general properties of both it is unlikely that all the resulting effects are entirely known. Another factor which is difficult to comprehend, two planetary spheres (atmo- and hydro- ) appear to run on two unsynchronised clocks.
It is likely that as you say something bigger than all of them causing all the ruckus

Danny Thomas

Vukcevic,
I realize that what I’m about to ask may be heresy, but here goes. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
It seems there would not have been enough anthro warming, but that would be supposition on my part.
Re: “when warming somehow starts” from below.
“Enter volcanoes. Researchers have suggested that as icecaps build on land, pressure on underlying volcanoes also builds, and eruptions are suppressed. But when warming somehow starts and the ice begins melting, pressure lets up, and eruptions surge. They belch CO2 that produces more warming, which melts more ice, which creates a self-feeding effect that tips the planet suddenly into a warm period” 5th paragraph down: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/seafloor-volcano-pulses-may-alter-climate
Also referenced in the above link is this Harvard paper from 2009. http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3659701/Huybers_FeedbackDeglaciation.pdf?sequence=1

Hi Mr Thomas
A geologists (which I am not) might be a more appropriate person to comment on.
As far as the CO2 warming is concerned, it appears to be something of it in the N. Hemisphere’s land temperature data (we may speculate on number of reasons for it), but I have found nothing whatsoever in the N. Atlantic sea surface data. For my own personal ‘entertainment’ I did make an effort to look to what extent the CO2 contribution might be in the land data and came up with this graphic.

Danny Thomas

Vukcevic,
Thank you.

jmorpuss

Re when warming somehow starts from below
“About 50% of the heat given off by the Earth is generated by the radioactive decay of elements such as uranium and thorium, and their decay products. That is the conclusion of an international team of physicists that has used the KamLAND detector in Japan to measure the flux of antineutrinos emanating from deep within the Earth. The result, which agrees with previous calculations of the radioactive heating, should help physicists to improve models of how heat is generated in the Earth.
Geophysicists believe that heat flows from Earth’s interior into space at a rate of about 44 × 1012 W (TW). What is not clear, however, is how much of this heat is primordial – left over from the formation of the Earth – and how much is generated by radioactive decay. ”
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2011/jul/19/radioactive-decay-accounts-for-half-of-earths-heat

Danny Thomas

jmorpuss,
Thank you for the link. Impressions are that this is a consistant if slightly dropping source of heat and has been for eons. Not sure how that could be the source bringing about a change if that consistant. Any clarity would be appreciated.

jmorpuss

Hi Danny
There’s a process called, The fair and foul weather electric fields https://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2004/arch/040917electric-weather.htm. The foul weather field works from the ground up and the fair weather field works from the top down . The Earths surface is the anode ( negative charged) and the ice layer at the top of the troposphere is the cathode ( positively charged)
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2006/TerryMathew.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathode
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anode

Danny Thomas

Jmorpuss,
Will look those over and I thank you for the links.

jmorpuss

Danny
There’s not much we give away for free these day’s and a please and thank you goes a long way to earning respect, Life is a mirror and we get back what we put out, so Thank You for your refreshing approach, Cheers and I hope life is good to you.

Danny Thomas

jmorpuss,
I’ve have been given much free here (some has even been quite pleasant:)))! I could not let your comment go without expression of my thanks for your statement. It may be a bit redundant, but the pleasure is mine! I believe (and have zero emperical evidence to prove) that even those who disagree can do so agreeably.
With regards!

Jimbo

I forgot the link for
“Rapid atmospheric CO2 variations and ocean circulation”
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v308/n5960/abs/308624a0.html
instaar.colorado.edu/~marchitt/siegenthaler1984.pdf

robinedwards36

When I asked a prof of volcanology whether undersea volcanoes might produce a noticeable and sudden increase in the temperature of the Arctic Ocean (which was her specialty) she said “NO”. The energy amounts involved were far too small to produce a measurable effect, apparently, so I gave up thinking about it. Should I have been sceptical?

vonborks

Many of us have said many times over the years that the “earth is degassing”, a normal activity that we believed was a major contributor to atmospheric CO2, far exceeding human burning of fossil fuel, but we did not have the numbers to support that theory, now thanks to Maya Tolstoy and others the supporting numbers are now coming in…

Land volcanoes according to the research emit 88 million tons of CO2 per year, that is about 24 MtC/year. Humans emit about 10 GtC/year or a factor 50 or so more…
Even if all undersea volcano CO2 reaches the surface and isn’t absorbed in the huge carbon pool of the deep oceans, it still is a factor 25 difference…

tty

Yes, so while undersea volcanism may well be affecting climate it is of course not through “the big control knob” CO2. It is more likely through the thermohaline circulation which is probably a much larger control knob.

policycritic

Has any scientific organization counted the total number of undersea volcanoes, and if so, has it also determined whether each volcano is active or not?

Why must it be volcanic CO2 instead of hot volcanic magma that is suspected of causing warming?
(BTW, two volcanos erupt today in Mexico)

Tom O

Are you foolish? You are being logical, and there is nothing logical about “climate science.” Of course it will be the CO2 that will take 400 years for it to affect the climate to cause the warming, not the trillions of calories released directly into the water by the magma. That “heat” will be hidden in the deep oceans until Man comes along and starts a wood fire or a cow farts. Everyone knows that!
And I love the virtually instantaneous response of the volcanoes to the passing of the ebb tide. Please don’t tell me they actually were paid to do this “research?” By some chance is their second job answering emails for trees?
And do I really have to say sarcasm? You are correct in your thinking, slywolfe, or at least I think so.

pouncer

This makes me wonder if a recent increase (if any) in North American earth tremors are co-incident (by natural cycle) with fracking rather than caused by fracking…

Alan Robertson

One striking fact about the increase in daily earthquakes here in Oklahoma (which prompted speculation that fracing caused quakes,) is that the region experiencing those daily quakes has moved from an apparent epicenter a few miles East and NorthEast of centrally located Oklahoma City, to many miles North and Northwest of OKC.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#{%22feed%22%3A%221day_m25%22%2C%22search%22%3Anull%2C%22listFormat%22%3A%22default%22%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22basemap%22%3A%22grayscale%22%2C%22autoUpdate%22%3Atrue%2C%22restrictListToMap%22%3Atrue%2C%22timeZone%22%3A%22local%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A%5B%5B33.64663552343716%2C-101.4312744140625%5D%2C%5B37.76637243960179%2C-92.6422119140625%5D%5D%2C%22overlays%22%3A{%22plates%22%3Atrue}%2C%22viewModes%22%3A{%22list%22%3Atrue%2C%22map%22%3Atrue%2C%22settings%22%3Afalse%2C%22help%22%3Afalse}}

Alan Robertson

There really has been an increase in OK quakes and the state agencies charged with investigating same have found no meaningful correlation with drilling/fracing/disposal wells. The link above requires the entire sequence, to get to the correct page.

Tom O

As I recall, when BP had the blowout on the Macondo well, one of the people that was doing a lot of study about it said that the well would leak crude into the New Madrid fault with the potential affect of causing a lot of earthquakes along the entire fault line. I think his site was called Phoenix Rising, or something like that. He made some very good points that resonated with my sense of truth at the time. I think the increase in earthquakes along the fault zone is probably related to that, especially since the supposedly sealed wellhead wouldn’t stop the crude from being forced into cracks. Has then been a radiation increase along with the earthquake increase? I think the deep crude was supposed to have a higher radiation content.

Alan Robertson

TomO,
afaik, there has not been an uptick in quakes along any fault associated with the New Madrid Fault (there was a quake in that zone w/in last month,) nor is it known that any affected fault areas in OK extend to New Madrid. The quakes in OK are relatively shallow as far as quakes go, with most occurrences at less than 11 Km deep. I’ve not found any references in current literature about any increase in radiation levels in area oil production.
The BP blowout was at least 1500 Km distant from the present area of OK quakes. It is doubtful that any correlation would be meaningful.
disclaimer: I have zero expertise about the matter.

Unmentionable

@ Tom O February 5, 2015 at 12:48 pm
“… As I recall, when BP had the blowout on the Macondo well, …”

Its nonsense Tom.
Faults (contrary to very popular theory needs) are always lubricated to some degree by a combination of, pore space water under pressure, phyllosilicate clay slurry (lots of it), lubricant metals like molybdenum (some- usually emplaced in hydrothermal processes of transport and atom precipitation with changes in pressure) and especially by copious amounts of ‘massive’ (i.e. solid) graphite, that’s almost always is present in fault surface,
Those are some of the most commonly found lubricants used in modern close tolerance racing engines and high performance sliding mechanisms to reduce or almost eliminate friction right there, and faults are almost universally chock full of these compounds.
The fault also is lubricated mechanically by a readily observed phenomena called ‘slickensides’ where the relative movement of the fault literally polishes the fault’s opposing rubbing surfaces, and the mineral bonds are broken and then regrow in the grain direction parallel to the fault’s movement, at the contacts, thus allowing easier relative slippage. When this occurs another massively common igneous and metamorphic phyllosilicate mineral called mica grows directly into the faults as well.
In other words, it is almost impossible to lubricate faults any more than earth already naturally does. This is one of the many unrecognised and almost never seriously questions and conundrums of geology (there are many) – the faults are incredibly well lubricated! And yet don’t move until stress is applied and elastic energy accumulates? Really? When fault networks and joints in rock by their very nature lubricated discontinuities in the crust that would militate against effective stress accumulation and act like a severing of the supposed elastic accumulator. (as you see, there are enormous practical and mechanical problems with the petrological elastic rebound theory, especially in the highly faulted crust)
So adding oil to a fault would do almost nothing to improve the lubrication, if such intrusions were possible, which I’m quite sure it isn’t. The earth is ancient, we have a rock record and fanciful stuff like that isn’t happening.
Graphite as a lubricating agent in fault zones: An insight from low- to high-velocity friction experiments on a mixed graphite-quartz gouge
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrb.50175/abstract
Slickensides
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slickenside
Graphite lubricates fault zones – Phys.org
http://phys.org/pdf287148053.pdf
Anyone predicting a fault is going to move for some particular reason can be safely discounted simply because the real reasons for their movement are actually not understood. Seismology and geophysics are simply pretending to understand it. Why do that? Oh, get this, they have a simple elasto-mechanical model, which of course is in wild discord with observed realities.
sssshhhh! … we’re not supposed to talk about it … you don’t want to get excommunicated do you!

“Tom O February 5, 2015 at 12:48 pm
As I recall, when BP had the blowout on the Macondo well, one of the people that was doing a lot of study about it said that the well would leak crude into the New Madrid fault with the potential affect of causing a lot of earthquakes along the entire fault line…”

The 3000 foot deep Macondo well? The well that is 540+ miles or 870+ kilometers away from New Madrid and 3000 feet deep?
Not happening, ever.
Almost everything BP and the big green orgs announced about the leak is not true. Trying to infer the New Madrid fault getting lubricated by an oil leak so far away is right up there with the Lewseranddropsky and uncooked conspiracy scenarios.

tty

” one of the people that was doing a lot of study about it said that the well would leak crude into the New Madrid fault with the potential affect of causing a lot of earthquakes along the entire fault line.”
The thing about a well blowout is that it happens at the surface, and that the oil spews into the air/water because it is under pressure. It does not turn around and burrow down through hundreds of miles of rocks to lubricate a distant fault. As a matter of fact we know that the well lining is intact and tight all the way down to the reservoir formation, because otherwise there wouldn’t be pressure for a blowout.

DirkH

Also, the Macondo oil was abiotic Black Goo which is an information-processing superintelligence that connects to your nervous system and turns you into a telepathic collectivist.
That’s why it had to be exorcised with Corecite.
Google for it on youtube, some people are trying to make a dime by telling this story. I found it amusing.

You can read about that explicitly as an example in my 2012 book The Arts of Truth. Most are for sure only coincident.

Robert B

I read a newspaper article that attributed earth tremors in Nevada (I think) to fracking because of the timing with the permission to go ahead. The fracking still hasn’t started, though.

H.R.

I read a newspaper article that attributed earth tremors in Nevada (I think) to fracking because of the timing with the permission to go ahead. The fracking still hasn’t started, though.

Pure gaia-green-clima-geddon-puddin’-headed comedy gold, Robert B!
Now there is our “Thursday Thighslapper” for ya’ll.

BFL

The USGS concurs that fracking injection wells may be the cause of earth quakes up to mag 3:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/induced/
“The increase in seismicity has been found to coincide with the injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells in several locations, including Colorado, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Ohio. Much of this wastewater is a byproduct of oil and gas production and is routinely disposed of by injection into wells specifically designed and approved for this purpose.
Hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as “fracking,” does not appear to be linked to the increased rate of magnitude 3 and larger earthquakes.”

Alan Robertson

That linked study from 2013 suggested a correlation with injection wells, while stating that Oklahoma is known to be. “earthquake country”. The survey may prove to be be correct, but the OGS and other teams within the state are reaching different conclusions. The most recent statement from the head of the OK task force charged with studying the problem said that while the correlation is apparent at some Arkansas and Ohio injection wells (and 1 OK well which has been shut down,) that correlation in OK has yet to become apparent. Much attention is now focused on this issue on our state.
Meanwhile, OK has experienced 79 quake events >Mag 1.9 in past 7 days.

Alan Robertson

on in our state.

Ernest Bush

The author of the landmark study on the Ohio quakes has stated publicly that those quakes occurred once in an area at a specific point in the fracking process and was related to the rock formations in the area of fracking. He does not believe that any other of the recent quakes in Oklahoma or elsewhere are related to fracking at all. There has been a general increase in small earthquakes worldwide.

ossqss

How many SUV’s does it take to equal one Pinatubu?
No really, how many?

asybot

Depends on how many are running for how long, engine size, diesel or gas, electric assist, up or down hill. Mine I run as little as possible.

Ernest Bush

There may not have been enough manufactured yet to equal one Pinatubo. Also, asybot points out the problem of quantifying one SUV to use as a standard.

tadchem

The lack of consideration for submarine vulcanism, including the injections of copious amounts of heat, CO2, and water-soluble acid gases (SOx, H2S) has always been a serious flaw in the ‘global circulation’ models. The modellers have had nothing to say about this fundamental oversight before.
The climate models used continue to assume that the atmosphere is largely independent of the oceans (except possibly for ‘acidifying’ the oceans to exterminate life) which we are now learning is far from the actual case.

If you’d studied chemistry at the high school level you would know that the effect of dissolving H2S in aqueous solutions is precipitation of insoluble sulfides, i.e. black smokers are the result of iron sulphide, white smokers are calcium and barium sulfides and silicon. Sulphate composition of seawater is constant so that has no effect (it’s precipitated out as Calcium Sulphate) and change in CO2 is predominantly from the atmosphere not volcanoes.

Dawtgtomis

I’m curious how much SO2 these volcanos emit and what it does to ocean PH as a whole.

Highly corrosive, strong mineral acids, like H2SO4, HNO3 and aqua regia, have absolutely no impact on ocean pH and are good for life even at near boiling temperatures.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Main_Endeavour_black_smoker.jpg
Unless of course the acids are from an anthropogenic source. Then even mineral water will cause a runaway apocalypse through positive feedback loops. Or so Mr Chk. N. Little claims.

Duster

You left out the CO2 which outweighs the SO4 (not SO2 so much). There is also the amount of H2S to be considered.

It might be interesting to know if this is enough heat to produce the .005 degrees of warming that is supposedly the hidden heat from CO2.

Eliza

Duh Blooming obvious…..

ferd berple

Tolstoy found that all known modern eruptions occur from January through June.
============
Wow. Never heard that before. The implications are huge. Does this explain the annual pulse in CO2 attributed to Northern Hemisphere plant life?
Can it in fact be the earth orbiting the sun that is timing the eruption of volcanos and the release of CO2 annually?

ferd berple wrote, “Tolstoy found that all known modern eruptions occur from January through June.”
============
Wow. Never heard that before…”

Same here, wow!
Any idea why?

Alan Robertson

In the Northern Hemisphere, the warmer months bring out many scantily clad virgins (sic) in their sun worshiping costumes, thus taking the vulcan gods’ minds off their business, for a time.
I could prove this phenomenon with sufficient grant money.

That is the period when tidal force is greatest. Around the monthly new moon, when the earth is closest to the sun (contributing a gravitational tug about half that of the moon alone) and the moon is between sun and earth to produce the maximum ‘unidirectional’ tug on earths mass. Same reason ‘spring tides’ ( maximum high low varation) occur in the spring.

Rod

Sorry Rud, Spring tides occur every 2 weeks just as neap tides occur every 2 weeks. The Earth is closest to the Sun in January (furthest away in July) so their is no moon-Sun orbital reason for volcanos Jan-Jul. Unless of course there is a 3 month lag on Earth’s closer approach to the Sun in Jan.
Spring tides have the greater gravitational pull and they occur when the moon is on the same side, and the opposite side of the Earth from the Sun. Neap tides are on half moons where moon is at 90 degrees to earth sun line.
Alan, January is summer for the southern hemisphere, so let me know when the money comes thru and I’ll lead the southern hemisphere based research!

Alan Robertson

Rod, there’s just gotta be a correlation in there, somewhere.

RoHa

“they erupt almost exclusively during the first six months of each year.”
I’m pretty sure it’s for tax reasons. The Australian tax year ends in June.

Rod:
I was going to post this below, but your succinct comment saves me a lot of explanation.

“…The idea that remote gravitational forces influence volcanism is mirrored by the short-term data, says Tolstoy. She says the seismic data suggest that today, undersea volcanoes pulse to life mainly during periods that come every two weeks. That is the schedule upon which combined gravity from the moon and sun cause ocean tides to reach their lowest points, thus subtly relieving pressure on volcanoes below…”

Gobbledygook?
“…That is the schedule upon which combined gravity from the moon and sun cause ocean tides to reach their lowest points, thus subtly relieving pressure on volcanoes below…”
Which to me are two odd concurrent statements slapped into a single result.
“…the schedule upon which combined gravity from the moon and sun…”
“…subtly relieving pressure on volcanoes below…”?
Sun and moon gravity is always combined in relation to the Earth.
“…cause ocean tides to reach their lowest points…”
“…subtly relieving pressure on volcanoes below…”?
From their PDF:

“…Figure 1 shows that
54 eight out of nine of these best-documented mid-ocean ridge magmatic events occurred
55 during lows in the fortnightly tidal modulations (neap tides)…”

My bolding, but they clearly state neap tides.
Tides are the movement of water. Spring tides represent the greatest movement of water. Neap tides represent the least movement of water. Crest of water we recognize as high tide, trough is seen as the low tide.
Ostensibly, if one is looking for the least weight of water, that would be during the low tide of the spring tidal movement, not during neap tides. Neap tides are where the change between high/low tide is smaller meaning little change in weight of the water during this tidal cycle.
Bringing us back to just what are these folks trying to state?
Add in this character’s supportive claim:

“Edward Baker, a senior ocean scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said, “The most interesting takeaway from this paper is that it provides further evidence that the solid Earth, and the air and water all operate as a single system.”

Solid Earth?
There are many things about this paper that cause me to think there are problems, clumsy wording and long long claims. would be nice to have backup data!

ATheoK
Neap tides are where the change between high/low tide is smaller meaning little change in weight of the water during this tidal cycle.
Bringing us back to just what are these folks trying to state?

The paper clearly explains that, it’s a matter of system response time:
“Figure 1 shows that eight out of nine of these best-documented mid-ocean ridge magmatic events occurred during lows in the fortnightly tidal modulations (neap tides). A Schuster test (Emter, 1997) shows statistically significant non-random distribution with respect to the fortnightly modulations of the tides (99%). This suggests that seafloor eruptions are particularly sensitive to prolonged tidal unloading and implies a system response time [Jupp et al., 2004] that is generally longer than the diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal fluctuations (Figure 2).”

Alan Robertson

Bardarbunga started erupting in late August, last year.

Gunga Din

I don’t know if this is true or not but, if it is I assume it’s referring to when they begin.
Kilauea has been erupting for years.

I am not entirely convinced, a quick google search shows lot of eruptions in the other six months of the year
Kracatoa Aug. 26-28, 1883
Vesuvius Aug. 24, 79 A.D.
Vesuvius Dec. 15, 1631
Tongariro NZ Aug 6 2012
Tungurahua Ecuador Aug 2012
Fuego Sep 13, 2012
San Cristobal 9 Sep 2012
Kilauea Nov 2014
Shiveluch 12 Nov 1964
Mt Lokon 15 Nov 2014

DD More

volcano erupting under the Eyjafjallajökull glacier on May 5, 2010

Bohdan Burban

These are all sub-aerial volcanoes

Alan Robertson

Bohdan Burban
February 5, 2015 at 3:15 pm
“These are all sub-aerial volcanoes”
———————————
Then the meaning of the following statement is unclear, if it related only to submarine volcanoes.
Tolstoy found that all known modern eruptions occur from January through June.”

Bob Boder

I think the implication is with the undersea volcanoes not all valcanoes

vukcevic, as far as I am aware none of those volcanoes are subterranean.

ferd,
Wrong δ13C level: almost all volcanoes have higher δ13C levels than the atmosphere, be it that subduction volcanoes emit CO2 with higher δ13C level than deep magma volcanoes, which most deep ocean volcanoes are. Anyway, if the deep ocean volcano CO2 reaches the atmosphere, that would increase the CO2 and δ13C in the atmosphere, while the largest changes are in the NH spring/summer with decreasing CO2 levels and increasing δ13C. That points to vegetation as cause of the CO2 sink and δ13C increase as the formation of new leaves and wood uses CO2 and preferentially 12CO2:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/seasonal_CO2_d13C_MLO_BRW.jpg

Question- don’t certain crops and pasture grasses have a higher pref. for C 13 than woody plants?

Most plants use the C3 cycle as that needs less energy, that gives a drop of ~24 per mil in δ13C in the plant carbon species. C4 cycle plants evolved more recently as result of the lowering CO2 levels, are less selective, but still are around -10 to -14 per mil δ13C.
The atmosphere was at -6.4 +/- 0.2 per mil δ13C pre-industrial over the Holocene and dropped to currently -8 per mil in ratio to human emissions.
As the whole biosphere shows a net uptake of CO2 and both C3 and C4 species prefer 12C over 13C, that should increase the δ13C level in the atmosphere. Only the rate of increase differs between them and anyway is overwhelmed by low 13C fossil fuel use…

Alley’s data ends ~160 years ago, why do you think there’s a problem with showing the temperature since the end of that data? Also stealey why do you keep showing Lappi’s graph which is incorrectly plotted, despite having that error pointed out to you?

rooter

ferd berple says:
“We don’t know what caused the Minoan Warming, or the Roman Warming, or the Medieval Warming, so therefore they cannot have happened. The history records must be wrong.”
How does ferd berple know that these warming periods happened? Which history records?

rooter says:
How does ferd berple know that these warming periods happened? Which history records?
Which history? You don’t believe the ice core records? What do you believe? Scientology?
ferd berple says:
…we have studied all the possible explanations we can find for global warming, but none of them are the cause, so therefore we know it must be humans.
That is Prof Richard Lindzen’s amusing retort to the anti-science crowd when they use that anti-logic. See if you can name that fallacy, rooter.

@rooter:
Marcott et al. has been so thoroughly deconstructed here that I do not accept anything at face value from them. Do a WUWT archive search, you will see [it will take you a while to read what’s there].
For example, compare the trickery that Marcott did, with R.B.Alley’s peer reviewed paper. This chart is the result.
Here is another chart from Alley’s data:
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png
I get it: your mind is made up, and nothing could possibly convince you otherwise. But unlike you, most of us here are looking for answers. You will not accept that prior warming episodes happened. That’s your problem, not ours.

rooter

dbstealey says:
“Marcott et al. has been so thoroughly deconstructed here that I do not accept anything at face value from them. Do a WUWT archive search, you will see [it will take you a while to read what’s there].
For example, compare the trickery that Marcott did, with R.B.Alley’s peer reviewed paper. This chart is the result.”
dbstealey did not notice that I showed an ice core record from Greenland together with the Marcott reconstruction. A reconstruction that has a higher holocene maximum than gisp2. So if dbstealey want to show more divergence from Marcott he should use Vinther’s reconstruction rather than gisp2.
This is just another instance of infilling the gisp2 proxy to cover the whole world. In this case in order to “debunk” Marcott. If you want to that kind of massive infilling, why not use Vinther 2009?
Btw, dbstealey showed gisp2 with a more updated temperature where modern temperature is higher than Medieval warming.comment image
Interesting development from dbstealey. dbstealey hockeystick.

tty

“Can it in fact be the earth orbiting the sun that is timing the eruption of volcanos and the release of CO2 annually?”
No, all the CO2 would be dissolved in the seaweater close to the eruptions. It would only get into the atmosphere several centuries later when the deep water finally upwells to the surface.

ferd berple

People have ignored seafloor volcanoes on the idea that their influence is small
=============
But, but, but we have studied all the possible explanations we can find for global warming, but none of them are the cause, so therefore we know it must be humans. Climate Science (TM) 101.
We don’t know what caused the Minoan Warming, or the Roman Warming, or the Medieval Warming, so therefore they cannot have happened. The history records must be wrong.
In contrast we know exactly what has caused the Modern Warming. It is human CO2 from burning fossil fuels. It must be because we have looked at EVERYTHING ELSE. I tell you, we have looked at Everything, and nothing other than anthropogenic CO2 that can be the cause. There is simply no possibility that we have overlooked anything.

ferd berple

Climate Models reply:

asybot

Hey thanks for the info Ferd, I finally found out where “The Theory of Everything” has come to fruition, thanks all you “climatologists” who’d have thunk it climatologists, I can sleep now (lol).

exSSNcrew

That video should be attached to the definition of hubris.

Keith

I second the comment about Vukcevic proposing this.
Piers Corbyn has been highlighting moon and planet gravity effects on weather and climate too.
Not saying I subscribe to everything he proposes nor that its the same. Just saying.
http://www.weatheraction.com/ too

sophocles

Corbyn seems to be the original eccentric, but he does have
a point. Or three. He [claims to have] discovered an effect of
the solar wind on the atmosphere when doing solar research
some time ago (late 1980’s perhaps?). He has not reported this
in any real detail which I have been able to find. He seems to
treat it as commercially sensitive as he uses it to make NH
seasonal and long range weather forecasts.
His forecasts have been found to be better than chance and
appear to be significantly better than the UK Met Office which
still thinks CO2 causes weather. He claims significant skill, but
how much of that is salesmanship and how much is truth I am
in no position to judge.
However, his website at http://www.weatheraction.com is an interesting
read.

Brad Rich

This is, as they say nowadays, huge. However, unless it bleeds carbon dioxide and they can blame it on humans, it won’t get much press and will end up swept under the rug.

I recall my astonishment when Piers Corbyn made what I thought was a preposterous earthquake prediction in his horribly garish newsletter, just a few weeks before the 4th largest earthquake that the world has seen since 1900.
When I first read Piers’ prediction, I thought he was nuts. When he was vindicated, I was absolutely astounded.

Color me sceptical. Tolstoy has been going on about tidal locking since 2002 concerning earthquakes and volcanoes (periodic gravitational max impact on earths crust, not oceans per se). There is apparently something to it, supported by Glasser at geology.gpspub.org (2003). Easy google away.
But to tie seafloor spreading magma intrusions to CO2 and climate change is a ‘bridge too far’. The reason is fundamental geology. Tectonic Spreading eruptions bring up basaltic mantle magma, almost by definition. That contains little CO2. High CO2 eruptions come from volcanos over subduction zones. The CO2 comes from the recycled crustal rock as it is thrust down under the other plate toward the basaltic mantle and melted. Sedimentary rocks like limestone get cooked no differently than in a cement kiln, freeing their biologically sequestered CO2. In fact, if that did not happen, photosynthesis would use up atmospheric CO2 in about 2.5 million years (leaving aside the anthropogenic component) and the planet would go dead. Such volcanos are almost all located on land arcs like the western coast of North America, or southeastern Asia. It is the upward thrust on the overlying plate from the subducting plate edge that causes those mountainous arcs to form. For directly related reasons, these are also the volcanos with high VEI and ash, like Pinatubo or El Chichon or Vesuvius.
Her geophysics might be good. Dunno. The link to climate change, pretty sure not so good.

Tom O

Tectonic plate action always has been an interesting concept to me. I have yet to figure out how something soft and mushy can drive something hard and solid under something else that is hard and solid. I would think that something soft and mushy would pile up, just like hot spot volcanoes such as the Hawaiian Islands are made from, regardless of the type of magma. I’ve just never really been able to come to grips with the concept. I would have thought the ejection of magma along the ridge line would sooner create a new chain of islands rather than, say, shove Japan under China.

Tom O, all geologists thought like you until about 1967, when the stripes of magnetic pole reversals recorded in the midAtlantic spreading rift were observationally determined. Alfred Wagoner was a meteorologist, not a geologist, who came to his theory pondering paleoclimate. How could fossil ferns exist on Arctic Svalbard? The story is told in capsule form as the continental drift example in my 2012 book, The Arts of Truth. And, geologists still do not agree on all the forces at work even today. Only that they are indeed at work. The world is a big, complicated place. The Roman goddess Veritas resided in a deep well. Regards.

“I have yet to figure out how something soft and mushy can drive something hard and solid under something else that is hard and solid.”
Not sure why my mind drifted to where it did when I read this. LOL

Unmentionable

Rud Istvan
February 5, 2015 at 1:29 pm
Tom O, all geologists thought like you until about 1967, when the stripes of magnetic pole reversals recorded in the midAtlantic spreading rift were observationally determined…

You aren’t addressing the basic mechanism problem he referred to though. Pointing to magnetic isochrons tells you only that see floor is being created (there are even videos and geodetics these days Tom). And that process is effectively insitu with respect to the underlaying flow, assumed to be a divergence in the mantle away from the ridge. So there is no mechanical sliding of the ocean crust with respect to mantle there, it is attached to the mantle and moving along with it (so the theory goes, if you accept a solid rock mantle convects with wholly insufficient thermal energy and density difference to do so and overcome the mineral bonds).
Thus the mechanical problem he refers to is at the other end of the plate. That bit is nowhere near adequately mechanically explained. There are theories, there are models, there are assertion that are convenient, but they are still plainly inadequate nonsense.
We should not discourage people taking note of the inconsistencies and thinking about them while pretending it’s all been ‘explained’. There are explanations, plenty, but they sure aren’t explaining the realities, they are just the meme polish applied over decades to current convenient working theories that are full of holes.
As I see it this is a clear warning for why we should not be making assumptions about our levels of understanding. It may be centuries before we have adequate cohesive compelling understandings of what’s actually going on inside Earth.

Jimmy Finley

Tom O: It’s a matter of density. Hot rock – that at the spreading ridge – is less dense than all around. As a result it “floats” up. Look at a cross section of a spreading ridge. It stands like a mountain, hundreds of meters higher than the ocean floor (i.e. older material of the same origin) 500 miles, say, to either side. As the accreting (being added to) oceanic plates move away from the spreading ridge, they start to cool, and thus become more dense. At some point – maybe a 1000 miles away from the spreading ridge where it was born – a chunk of the plate becomes too dense for the underlying mantle to support. It simply begins to sink into the warmer, more fluid mantle material. (The continents, too, “float” on the mantle. The continents consist of materials with densities averaging on the order of 2.5 g/cm3 (“granite”); the underlying basaltic mantle is more like 3.0 g/cm3. Doesn’t sound like much, but it’s enough to keep us high and dry.)
Now as to “soft and mushy”: that term may apply in geology, but in human terms, the lava flowing out of Kilauea – glowing red and seeming to flow like a brook – is literally hard as a rock. There used to be a You Tube video showing someone trying to thrust a pole into the flowing lava. It can’t be done. This stuff has a viscosity a thousand to a million times that of water. Its flowing falls in the category of “rheidity” – it’s more a matter of movements of chunks of material on micro-shear planes under the influence of gravity or some other force than the relatively free movement of molecules in water.

Tom O
Convection forces normally should not make plates float, but as usual I have an unconventional view of the events.
Solid earth core is not entirely spherical, it has a bulge due to continues melting on east side (strong magnetic hemisphere) and metallic crystallizing to the west (weak magnetic hemisphere). To complicate matters solid inner core rotates at slightly different rate to the surface crust, this movement can be tracked by the position of the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly which slowly drifts to the west.
The thermal convection forces are in large part modulated by temperature difference between solid inner and liquid outer core, which due to the bulge is not equatorially even.
If you look at Galapagos or Hawaiian volcanic islands, you may find that they describe arcs with oldest islands at one, and the youngest at the other end.

tty

“I have yet to figure out how something soft and mushy can drive something hard and solid under something else that is hard and solid.”
it is easier if you visualize it as pieces of tinfoil on top of a vat of slowly circulating molasses. Also the whole process is very largely driven by gravitation, heavy materials sink and light rises. Over large distances ad large blocks of material the difference in strength between “hard” and “soft” rocks are largely irrelevant, and both can be approximated as zero.
” I would have thought the ejection of magma along the ridge line would sooner create a new chain of islands rather than, say, shove Japan under China.”
Sometimes it does, and the thing is that Japan exists exactly because it can’t be shoved under China, the rocks are to light to sink.

” I would have thought the ejection of magma along the ridge line would sooner create a new chain of islands …
That is the case where plates are moving apart, e.g. Iceland. Here you can see what Iceland might look like in a few million years time
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/G-S-ridge.jpg

Newsel

Interesting pictures of the PNG CO2 seeps included with this article. Maya’s research and subsequent observations must be giving the authors of this study heart attacks. “These experiments and field trips are essential to study at first-hand what is occurring in nature when more and more CO2 from the atmosphere mixes with water,” said AIMS research scientist, Dr Katharina Fabricius.” It would appear that Dr. Fabricius needs to address releases of subsea CO2 rather than just focusing on atmospheric CO2 and these releases have been ongoing for millennia. We are but a spec….
http://www.aims.gov.au/co2_seeps

Newsel, Dr Fabricius has committed what appears to be IMO academic misconduct in her studies of PNG corals and ocean acidification from CAGW. I have written both her and the Seattle Times about retractions/corrections. No responses. It is one of two examples in essay Shell Games in my new ebook. The essay tackles ocean acidification generally as another CAGW false alarm. Only the oyster portion was guest posted by Judith Curry, who also provided a foreword for the book.

that they erupt almost exclusively during the first six months of each year.
Huh. So from the winter solstice to the summer solstice? If orbital mechanics are the driver, one would think those would be the end points rather than the artificial Jan 1 to June 30?

Those two are max and min earth declination, not orbital eccentricity. Max solar tidal force is at the eccentricity min.

Well yeah. But if the idea is that orbital mechanics drive rift activity, then angle of inclination to the gravity field would be significant, would it not? (I’m not arguing, I’m asking). Point being that “first six months of the year” seems like a pretty artificial time period. If there’s physics driving the pattern (as there must be) then we need a root physical cause to consider rather than calendar dates which are most assuredly just an accidental correlation. If not declination (just the first thing I thought of) then what?

Alan Robertson

Earth’s annual closest orbital distance to the Sun, or perihelion, occurred on January 4, 2015 at 0700 GMT/UTC.

Davidmhoffer, I agree. But any answer beyond eccentricity is definitely beyond my paygrade.

ferdberple

If there’s physics driving the pattern (as there must be) then we need a root physical cause to consider rather than calendar dates

the mechanism is always discovered after the observation. then, sometimes later a different mechanism is discovered that underlies the original mechanism. then, sometimes later a different mechanism …., etc., etc. However the observational data remain unchanged. Unless subject to pairwise homogenization, in which case the observational data is always changing.

tty

Annual tidal forces are of course at maximum at perhelion, and while average tidal force is largest att eccentricity minimum, the variation is largest at eccentricity max.

Tom O

I think the choice of dates was to give the general public – and the news media people – something that they could more easily relate to.

M Courtney

Well, it’s near enough. How likely is it that the earthquakes all start on the first day anyway?
It still seems like an extraordinary claim, though.

http://spaceandscience.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/ssrcresearchreport1-2010geophysicalevents.pdf
The article like most climatic articles comes to conclusions that go against the available data, which shows a very strong correlation between prolonged solar minimum periods and geological activity.
What they claim has no data to back it up with yet in the face of data that shows (like in the above which I sent from the space and science center) which SHOWS a clear cut correlation between prolonged solar minimum conditions and volcanic activity they choose to ignore.
Then to add insult they try to make it seem like CO2 leads to a temperature increase when again the data shows it is the opposite. Then again this is climate science why go by the data, just make your own which is all they have done.
in addition another thought they do not bring up is under sea volcanic activity may heat up the oceans ,increasing the amounts of water vapor put into the atmosphere which could result in more snowfall and eventual glaciation. That said volcanic activity above the surface exerts more climatic effects then that from below.

Newsel

Thank you for the link and a very interesting read. As we are apparently heading into a solar minimum I feel your frustration.

Mushroom George

Iceland sits across the mid-atlantic ridge. The conjectured pulses should be detectable there, no?

Only if you submerge it a 1000′ or so below the ocean, the paper refers to seafloor volcanoes.

Louis

“the carbon dioxide [seafloor volcanoes] are thought to emit is currently about the same as, or perhaps a little less than, from land volcanoes–about 88 million metric tons a year.”

According to Jeff ID, “the oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance.”
The 0.088 GT of CO2 from seafloor volcanoes seems fairly insignificant compared to other sources. Wouldn’t their CO2 output have to “shoot up” about 100 times their current output just to equal current human output? I just can’t see how volcanic CO2 output alone could have much of an effect on climate.

Global warming and earthquakes
Tomorrow … I cover this subject.

bw

The mass of the atmosphere is about 5.15E6 gigatonnes. CO2 is 400 ppm by volume. Mass of CO2 is about 44/29 times air. So .0004 v/v becomes .000606.
5.15E6 times .000606 is 3126 gigatonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The biomass number is a guess for land surface, ocean biology is similar.
Soil biology may be several times surface biology mass. Paper here.
http://tinyurl.com/lqsu436
Marine abiotic carbon is over 50 times larger than atmospheric. It acts as a buffer.
Abiotic mineral pools are orders of magnitude greater, but have relatively small annual fluxes.
Basically, atmosphere CO2 is controlled by land surface and soil biology, with a large ocean buffer.
Physicists always neglect that a billion years of photosynthesis have causes the atmosphere to evolve into a biological artefact. And biology is notoriously non-linear.
Burning fossil fuels adds about 3 to 4 percent to the annual carbon biogeochemical cycle.

Grey Lensman

Who says 88 million tonnes is correct?
Why take it as gospel?

Volcanic SO2 not CO2 effects the climate. They forgot to bring up that point. Must have been a slip up.lol

Not from subterranean volcanoes, the SO2 ends up as SO4^2- ions which precipitate out as calcium sulphate.

AndyG55

I wonder how an increase in subterranean volcanic activity might register in ARGO buoys between 700 and 2000m ?

Almost not at all IMO. The average depth of the oceans is over 4000 meters IIRC. Enormous thermal mass at a temp about 4C. Enormous chemical buffering capacity. Spreading rifts and subduction zones usually arise at the deepest ocean parts, almost by definition. Marianas trench is a subduction zone about 10000 meters down.

Danny Thomas

Rud & Salvatore,
But could this fit the theory that CO2 follows temp and not leads it? Just asking. If there is some other trigger which initiates warming leading to ice reduction leading to increased volcanic activity (due to pressure reduction), could that be?

Danny, your observation is a fact. Paleo CO2 lags temp. Gore was wrong. See essay Cause and Effect in my new ebook for the latest. Two physical chem reasons why.
But you are right, leaves even larger CAGW questions. Triggers, feedbacks, …

highflight56433

…hmmm…We know the magma that reaches the surface emits heat. Duh More magma = more heat = more hot air. Magma that heats the oceans, then heats the atmosphere. More magma = more heat = more hot water = more hot air. Do we really have to discuss the CO2 relationships when we keep repeating that history shows no correlation of CO2 influencing global temperatures? WUWT?

Researchers have been looking for a connection between tides, magnetic storms, distance to the moon, etc for many decades and none have been found. Here are some of the [negative] evidence:
http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquake-Activity-Trigger.png
http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquake-Activity.png
http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquakes-Full-New.png
http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquakes-Perigee.png

Latitude

Why not just look at the obvious?….
Overlay a sea level map…with a sea temperature map….with a sea floor volcano map.. with a gravity map
(hint: it even shows the little bitty sea floor volcano off the east coast of Japan, the little ones off the south west coast of South America…etc etc etc)
Sea floor volcanoes increase gravity also…not the same thing as earthquakes

Thanks Leif for these data, I was looking for years for the data as I once read that there was a correlation between earthquake clusters and the solar cycle, but couldn’t find a confirmation.
It definitely looks like there isn’t any correlation…

There is some positive correlation (opposite to what is normally assumed) but only in the limited subArctic regions (Iceland, Aleutian archipelago and Kamchatka).
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Ap-VI.htm
I suspect the mechanism is related to the common planetary forcing of both.

Auroral region when possible correlation is observed
http://op.gfz-potsdam.de/champ/media_CHAMP/luehr_3_currents.gif

Thanks vukcevic, thus some partial correlation, not a general one…

It is important to note that the Ap index is not a representation of the Sunspot number (direct measure of solar activity) it is related to the strength of the geomagnetic storms as measured here on Earth. GM storms have strongest effect in two polar regions (explaining the regional correlation ?). According to NASA an averaged two hour geomagnetic storm releases roughly same energy as a 5.5 magnitude earthquake. Whether this is likely trigger for a volcano to erupt (which is on the verge of erupting anyway) is another question.
If correlation indicates causation, than it is a synchronising rather than driving force.
Note an aurora is not covering whole of Arctic uniformly it is a rotating ark with radius proportional to the strength of a geomagnetic storm. http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png
Currently geomagnetic activity is classed as ‘quiet’ 5-6 days ago there were 3 minor storms
This http://flux.phys.uit.no/ActIx/AIx87.gif
is table of the geomagnetic activity (Tromso, Norway) since 1987. It can be seen that strongest activity was away from both solar maxima and minima. Important to say it again: if the auroral area volcanic activity is somehow related to solar output than it is not sunspot number that matters, but only the coronal mass ejections, and only those directed towards the Earth, and further more only those of appropriate magnetic polarity and intensity.

Frequency of geomagnetic storms is 35% higher in the even sunspot cycles implying presence of 22 year cycle in the terrestrial events that might be affected
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/odd_even.gif

There is really no such effect. The definitive list of storms is maintained here: http://isgi.latmos.ipsl.fr/lesdonne.htm [unfortunately not quite up-to-date]. Plotting the number of Sudden Storm Commencements since 1868 you get:
http://www.leif.org/research/SSC-and-SSN.png
At times, odd cycles have been larger than even cycles, but that does not hold generally, e.g. cycle 22. The number of SSC’s scales with the square root of the sunspot number and has nothing to do with Even/Odd cycles. Now, there is a weak 22-year cycle in geomagnetic activity, but it goes from solar maximum to maximum, so, again is not tied to Even/Odd cycles [from minimum to minimum].

Tanks Dr. Svalgaard. I shall redo the graph from max to max (Kp>4 ?) and see how it fares.
You might wish to refute this too:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/07/tides-earthquakes-and-volcanoes/#comment-1854328
since I referred to your work on the SSN.

Not worth refuting.
Redoing the graph will not make your statement correct. There is no 22-year cycle in the frequency of geomagnetic storms [but well a weak 22-year cycle in the intensity – not frequency].

A more up-to-date list of storms can be found here:
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUDDEN_COMMENCEMENTS/SCYEAR
A big problem with most of your plot is that you rarely tell what the data are, where they come from, and how you have manipulated them.

Link
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/07/tides-earthquakes-and-volcanoes/#comment-1854328
concerns geomagnetic east component , you may have not seen before.

So what? As I said: not worth refuting or discussing

Thanks for second link, just looked at it, it does confirm that there is something odd going on.
Emailed UK Met Office last July, suggested to implement monthly weighting ( instead of 12 month average) in their CET annual data as more accurate calculation (only minor differences <0.07C), they just implemented it. They had to update all their annual files, rankings and corresponding charts. Hope your SSN update goes as smoothly.

If something odd is going on it is in your head. There is no 22-year cycle in the frequency of geomagnetic storms. Even cycles do not have more storms contrary to your claim.

Johanus

I wonder why CO2 seems so “well mixed” over the planet compared to that other GHG, water vapor. Yes, H2O has phase changes from gas to liquid to solid etc, which accounts for a lot of the clumpiness. But still, for a planet that’s covered mostly with water, the variability of water vapor seems remarkable, IMHO, compared to CO2.
Atmospheric CO2 density seems ‘rock solid’, currently about 396 ppm plus or minus a few percent all over the planet. And it is monotonically rising at a remarkably smooth rate, at least from 1958 when Keeling first started publishing his famous curve:comment image
Inquiring minds want to know: why this curve is rising so steadily and uniformly all over the Earth? Man-made CO2 production is certainly not as ‘uniformly’ generated over the Earth. (see OCO2 prelim data)
Could most of this CO2 be transpiring from all over the Earth simultaneously from oceanic CO2 sources at these undersea vulcanic sites?
Finally note how well the Mauna Loa CO2 correlates with HADCRUT4 global temps (NH and SH)
[Thanks to “Bart” for showing this on previous WUWT posts]
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/derivative/plot/hadcrut4nh/from:1960
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/derivative/plot/hadcrut4sh/from:1960
Why does the SH correlate better than the NH?
Chickens and eggs, here. Which came first?

Johanus

I meant to say “…note how well the Mauna Loa CO2 trend (derivative) correlates with HADCRUT4 global temps …”

Johanus

“Why does the SH correlate better than the NH? “
I ask because most of these volcanic ridges appear to be in the SH. Is that right?
http://www.scienceclarified.com/landforms/images/ueol_03_img0096.jpg

possibly because most of the continental mass once was in the SH and drifted to the nH where it is found currently
http://www-tc.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/eden/media/time_animation.gif

Your chart shows spreading zones. Now, in a different color, add the (‘equal but opposite’) subduction zones to roughly define all tectonic plate motion. (Hint, the Andes did not arise by accident.) Then note that in complex areas like off the isthmus of Panama, you really have to zoom in to get some comprehension. Essay by Land or by Sea in the ebook shows how important ‘zooming in’ is even in relatively stable places like Western Australia.
Just like for the San Andreas fault in Silicon Valley below highway 101 from San Jose to San Fransisco, which is neither spreading nor subducting, only shearing. Which will eventually ruin 101 and all of its environs like it did in 1906. But somehow I doubt Apple, Facebook, Google, Cisco, and Oracle are going to move to Detroit because of this more eventually certain but less time defined disaster. More certain than IPCC’s CAGW, on similar time scales.
Thanks for posting the chart you did. A good start and good question for all here to ponder.

Mike Maguire

http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/nasa-satellite-sends-back-most-detailed-co2-view-141218.htm
How much of this activity(elevated CO2 levels), especially in the Southern Hemisphere might be related to tectonic activity/volcanoes?

Johanus,
Water vapor is not well mixed because there is a limit in maximum water content of the atmosphere for a given temperature: less when colder. That gives clouds and rain if the temperature drops below the maximum saturation point. CO2 and air can mix in all ratio’s and all temperatures until the CO2 freezing point.
Further, there is little doubt (except from Bart and Salby and a few others) that humans are the cause of the CO2 increase in the atmosphere, as humans emitted twice the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere than observed, which is in near exact ratio to the human emissions:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/temp_co2_acc_1900_2011.jpg
By plotting the derivatives, you look at the variability around the trend, which is quite small: +/- 1 ppmv, while the trend is about 110 ppmv over the past 165 years and humans emitted some 200 ppmv, currently about 4.5 ppmv/year.
The variability is entirely caused by the influence of the temperature variability on (tropical) vegetation (ENSO), but temperature hardly influences the trend (some 6-8 ppmv from warming oceans since the LIA)…

Yes, Ferdinand, human emissions are the reason that CO2 is rising.
However, despite the early concern, and after many thousands of scientists have intensely studied the effects, there remains no verifiable indication of ANY global harm due to the rise in CO2.
I understand that this must be monitored — just in case. But every year that passes confirms the observation that CO2 is completely harmless.
In addition, the plant kingdom absolutely thrives on the added CO2. More is clearly better. More CO2 keeps food costs down — an extremely important consideration to the one billion people living on less than $2 a day.
Do you see anything wrong with what I wrote here?

Johanus

Ferdinand,
I understand the variability of water vapor. Yes, as a gas, H2O can vary from 10ppm to over 50,000ppm in the atmosphere.
Actually I am more surprised by the uniformity of CO2 in the atmosphere, given the relative sparsity (compared to H2O) of CO2 sources and sinks, over all of the Earth’s surface. According to some initial findings of the OCO2 satellite experiment, the density over the entire earth stays within 392 to 402 ppm. (I realize that was preliminary data, with an update due next month)
It seems to be an incredibly small variance when you consider that the CO2 sources are relatively sparsely distributed over the earth.
So that’s why Tolstoy’s article suggested to me a possible explanation for this “uber-uniformity”. But apparently that would require a lot more than 88 megatonnes per year (if that is correct).
Just wondering out loud, but still remain skeptical about the extent of man-made contribution to CO2 levels.
Thanks for providing the information!

Mike M.

Johannus wrote: “Actually I am more surprised by the uniformity of CO2 in the atmosphere, given the relative sparsity (compared to H2O) of CO2 sources and sinks, over all of the Earth’s surface”.
The atmosphere is in constant motion, so any gas released into the atmosphere will, in a few years, get mixed throughout the troposphere. If the gas gets removed from the atmosphere in less time than that, it will tend to be found in higher concentrations near its source and its concentration will be variable with place and time. The shorter the lifetime, the more variable the concentration will be. Gases, like CO2, with lifetime of more than a few years are pretty close to uniformly mixed.

rooter

Interesting from dbstealey there:
“Yes, Ferdinand, human emissions are the reason that CO2 is rising.”
The meme of temperature leading CO2 increase seems to be gone then. Could that lead to the conclusion that rising CO2 will lead to rising temperature?
Perhaps. Because dbstealey is busy trying to move the gooalposts:
“However, despite the early concern, and after many thousands of scientists have intensely studied the effects, there remains no verifiable indication of ANY global harm due to the rise in CO2.”
That leaves a lot up to more personal judgments. What is “harm”? And why the qualifier “global”? Sure seems like an attempt to cover the most bases possible.
At least it seems like there have been developments for dbstealey.

rooter,
Get a grip on reality. “Global” comes from “global” warming, see?
If you believe there has been ANY global harm, or negative reaction of ANY kind due to the rise in [harmless, beneficial] CO2, then post it here. Otherwise, you are just cluttering up the thread with pixels. As usual.

rooter:
To add to my reply above, what would constitute “harm” is anything that would make the alarmist crowd (and the media) jump up and down and point to it, saying excitedly, “Look! That is being caused by the rise in CO2!! And it is getting worse!”
Is that a good enough definition of global ‘harm’?
Make no mistake, they will blame anything they can on CO2. But the fact that they have been unable to find anything to point to is *very* strong evidence that CO2 is harmless.

Johanus,
As already said by Mike M, atmospheric mixing is quite rapid, but the ITCZ delays the exchanges between NH and SH, allowing only about 10% of air masses exchange between the hemispheres. Seasonal exchanges are huge: about 20% of all CO2 in the atmosphere is exchanged between atmosphere and other reservoirs over the seasons, but as the exchanges with oceans and vegetation are countercurrent with temperature (vegetation in the NH dominates), the net result is only some 2% change in the atmosphere over the seasons which is visible in the Mauna Loa curve.
Human emissions are for 90% in the NH and one can see that the increase is measured at sea level (Barrow) in the NH first, reaching the same level some 6 months later at height (Mauna Loa) then in the SH at sea level (Samoa) some 15 months later and then in the SH at height (South Pole) some 2 years later:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/co2_trends_1995_2004.jpg

richardscourtney

Ferdinand
You say

Human emissions are for 90% in the NH and one can see that the increase is measured at sea level (Barrow) in the NH first, reaching the same level some 6 months later at height (Mauna Loa) then in the SH at sea level (Samoa) some 15 months later and then in the SH at height (South Pole) some 2 years later:

You claim “Human emissions are for 90%” of what?
Human emissions of CO2 are ~2% of total CO2 emissions (natural and human).
At issue is what contribution – if any – the human emissions provide to the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Your ‘mass balance’ assumptions are that the human emission causes all the change by overloading the ability of the carbon cycle system to sequester all of it.
However, the equilibrium between atmospheric and ocean concentrations of CO2 is affected by ocean pH. A change to general ocean surface layer pH of less than 0.1 would be too small to discern but cause a change to atmospheric CO2 concentration larger than has been observed. The paper by Tolstoy requires serious scrutiny because it suggests “pulses” of undersea volcanism may affect ocean chemistry and, thus, ocean surface layer pH.
Richard

Richard please…
What you write was rejected many times before:
– Human CO2 emissions are currently ~10 GtC/year, of which 90% is released in the industrialized huge populations of the NH. The natural cycle is ~150 GtC/year or humans emit ~7% of the natural cycle.
– Human CO2 is additional, the net natural cycle is negative: more sink than source. That means zero contribution of the natural cycle to the increase in the atmosphere, whatever the distribution and changes in fluxes in nature over the years.
– If there was an enormous increase in natural CO2 circulation, dwarfing the human emissions, that needs to be a fourfold increase over the past 55 years in lockstep with human emissions increase, for which is not the slightest indication in any observation. To the contrary: the later estimates of the residence time show a small increase, as the throughput remained quite constant in an increasing CO2 level of the atmosphere.
– If undersea volcanoes emit sufficient amounts of acids (in the enormous carbonate buffer masses of the deep oceans), then the pH of the oceans could lower somewhat, but that would show up in a lower total carbon (DIC: CO2 + -bi-carbonates) content of the oceans as they release CO2 to the atmosphere. If the lower pH from the oceans is caused by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, DIC would increase. The latter is what is observed…
Thus sorry, undersea volcanoes are not the cause of the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere…

richard verney

The problem is that on a thourough inspection, neither the green nor the purple lines look anything like the the blue or red lines. There is no proper correlation.

richardscourtney

Ferdinand
You have not answered my question.

You claim “Human emissions are for 90%” of what?

Your having repeatedly disputed a possibility is NOT your having “refuted” the possibility.
You say

– If undersea volcanoes emit sufficient amounts of acids (in the enormous carbonate buffer masses of the deep oceans), then the pH of the oceans could lower somewhat, but that would show up in a lower total carbon (DIC: CO2 + -bi-carbonates) content of the oceans as they release CO2 to the atmosphere. If the lower pH from the oceans is caused by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, DIC would increase. The latter is what is observed…

The same issues remain. Variability of DIC and the lack of data over almost all of the oceans for almost all of the time of the rise means that your claims are meaningless. There are no measurements of DIC which could reliably indicate its global change during the recent period of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.
I repeat

The paper by Tolstoy requires serious scrutiny because it suggests “pulses” of undersea volcanism may affect ocean chemistry and, thus, ocean surface layer pH.

The suggestion may be determined to be right or wrong, but scrutiny of the paper to assist the determination should not be inhibited by false confidence in inadequate data.
“We do not know” is a scientific statement.
Richard

rooter

dbstealey says:
“To add to my reply above, what would constitute “harm” is anything that would make the alarmist crowd (and the media) jump up and down and point to it, saying excitedly, “Look! That is being caused by the rise in CO2!! And it is getting worse!”
Is that a good enough definition of global ‘harm’?”
dbstealey seems to have moved from doubting IPCC wg1 conclusions that the world has warmed and we have caused it. Caused the rise in CO2 and the increased temperature.
Now he is moving goalpost. Those goalpost are made out of rubber and can be moved whenever he feels threatened.

Richard,
There are many million measurements done over a lot of repeated tracks in all oceans. While that still is sparse for the full oceans (especially the South Pacific) surface, all repeated measurements of the same places over time show an increase in DIC, and as far as measured, a decrease in pH. That includes the main upwelling areas where the deep ocean volcano releases should be measurable first.
It would be a really bad luck if the ocean measurements would have missed any large area of the oceans where there was a drop in pH combined with a drop in DIC. That is one point in the story.
The other point is that the “missing source” must have started and increased its emissions completely synchronized with human emissions, probably together with coal mining, which mass release triggered undersea volcanoes to emit more CO2 at thousands of kilometers distance…
Seems rather impossible to me…

richardscourtney

Ferdinand
You still have not answered my question

You claim “Human emissions are for 90%” of what?

The number and coverage of the measurements is completely inadequate for determination of changes to global ocean DIC and global ocean surface layer pH.
And, yes, the human CO2 emissions and rise in atmospheric CO2 are coincident. So what? It would also indicate nothing if the human CO2 emissions were coincident with a fall in atmospheric CO2 because the atmospheric CO2 must be rising or falling if it is not constant.
I repeat, “We do not know” is a scientific statement.
Richard

Richard, I did say “human emissions are for 90% in the NH”. That implies that only 10% of human emissions are in the SH. That is why the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is in the NH first.
All points on a row:
– The pH gets lower, DIC gets higher in the oceans which only can be caused by increased CO2 in the atmosphere. There are no measurements of the opposite trend anywhere. The increase in DIC is in perfect ratio with the increase in the atmosphere as per Revelle/buffer factor.
– CO2 gets higher in the atmosphere in the NH first, while the main deep ocean upwelling is in the SH near the equator.
– The δ13C level of all CO2 from volcanoes of the world and from the oceans is higher than of the atmosphere, all CO2 measurements in the atmosphere and the ocean surface give a steady decline in δ13C in near perfect ratio to human emissions.
– The undersea volcano CO2 emissions are estimated les than 1/50th of the human emissions.
– Volcanic emissions are intermittent, as the above research shows. The increase in the atmosphere is fluent, slightly quadratic, in near perfect ratio with human emissions.
“We do not know” is a scientific statement.
“We don’t want to know” is a much more appropriate statement in this case…

@rooter:
You completely ignored my definition. Instead, you deflected. Then you accused me of ‘moving the goal posts’!
rooter, your problem is psychological ‘projection’: imputing your own faults onto others.

richardscourtney

Ferdinand
Thankyou for ther clarification of “90%” which you have now provided.
Yes, you very clearly do not want to know – or at least, you do not want to admit – that the sparse ocean DIC and pH data is inadequate to indicate what you want it to.
Richard

rooter

dbstealey says:
“You completely ignored my definition. Instead, you deflected. Then you accused me of ‘moving the goal posts’!
rooter, your problem is psychological ‘projection’: imputing your own faults onto others.”
Your rubber definitions reflect your failing defenses. Those rubber definitions are all you have left. From denying we cause CO2 rise and temperature rise to clinging on to “it cannot be harmful!”
That is development. Interesting development.

What you write was rejected many times before:

That is not an argument in favor of your theories. Virtually all theories have been rejected many times before they were accepted. There are countless examples down through history of theories that were rejected time and time again by the established scientists, only to later be shown to provide a better explanation of observations than the theories of established scientists. Often after the established scientists retired or died, and their roles as gatekeepers were eliminated.
“Science advances one funeral at a time.” Max Planck

Richard Courtney says:
Ferdinand
You have not answered my question.

Ferdinand has ignored my question completely.
Next, rooter says:
Those rubber definitions are all you have left. From denying we cause CO2 rise and temperature rise to clinging on to “it cannot be harmful!”
Ah, rooter. Name-calling and misrepresenting my position is all you have left. In case the reason is that you’re slow to understand, I will repeat, in more detail:
a) I do not deny that humans caused the recent rise in CO2. In fact, as I have explained many times, I think that human emissions are the main cause. Ferdinand convinced me of that. So that is a misrepresentation.
b) What is a “rubber” definition? Is that your way of trying to say what I pointed out about you, except using different words? Seems so. I gave you a perfectly good definition of global “harm”: when scientists and the media start to point to harmful effects, stating that they are caused by the recent rise in CO2, then we can discuss whether CO2 is harmful. But so far, there are not any harmful effects at all. Otherwise, we would hear about it 24/7/365. Wouldn’t we?
c) I have never denied that human emissions caused a rise in global temperatures. But I am a skeptic. Show me, in a convincing way, by using scientific measurements and empirical evidence, that this is so. But as of now, that is only an assertion. Skeptics call such assertions “conjectures” unless they are accompanied by testable evidence. So far, you have none. Note that a conjecture is an opinion.
d) What am I “clinging” to, rooter? By using that political term du jour, you are just playing the man instead of the ball. But since that’s all you’ve got, I’m not surprised. You certainly do not have sufficient corroborating evidence. If you think a comment like that is convincing in any scientific way, let me inform you: it’s not.
e) Yes, my position that the recent rise in CO2 is not harmful. Prove me wrong. I do not say that it cannot be harmful. But that is your burden. You have not met that burden. Show us verifiable global harm from the rise in CO2. If you do, you will be making Ferdinand’s response easier, too.
You need to think logically, rooter. So far, it appears that the ‘carbon’ scare has colonized your mind. Try to overcome that by being more objective.

Gary Pearse

I think the study has merit, the mechanical part of it anyway. It can be replicated, too. The CO2 part is pure hogwash. Maybe she had to add the obligatory phrase. This might be a signal to peer reviewers and bankers of science.

Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
This is a fascinating article, and yet another potential blow to climate-alarmist fantasies.

richard

“They belch CO2 that produces more warming”
You can imagine the sense of relief that this was included.

The problem with so many in climate science is that they try to prove their points with specific items they want to try to convince us may or may not change the climate in ISOLATION ,rather then in the context of the entire picture.
Again a given force and magnitude changes of that force have to be taken into account with the entire spectrum of items that are exerting an influence on the climate at that given time ,along with the state of the climate at that given time in order to get a sense of what impact that specific force may or may not exert on the climate.
This is why it is so hard to prove and show a simple cause and effect relationship between the climate and items exerting a force upon the climate even though it does exist..

I addressed this in a paper I just did. I posted it on this web-site under the topic ,Many mixed signals in the UKMO’S latest 5 year global surface temp. forecast.

ScienceABC123

There’s a challenge to all you climate modelers. Take those volcanoes into your climate models, and stop changing the historical record!

Jim G

Golly gee, something I have asked about on this site many times. Seems the data that I found available on under sea volcanos indicated insufficient energy output for making much difference in ocean temperature. But since geothermal is the only other source of actual heat on this planet other than UHI situations I have always thought it might be another place to look.

Alan Robertson

Other than UHI situations?
What a joker!

Jim G

Other, being solar, of course, but we are told that solar cycles do not account for more than .1 degree of warming. So you have solar, geothermal and actual man made heat ie UHI type situations. What other sources of heat are there on this rock?

Alan Robertson

I really thought that you were being snarky, because as you know, UHI accounting in temp records is controversial. It was a good joke.
Real world UHI- not enough added energy to matter. Temp record UHI- cause for alarm.

Jim G

Alan,
No, just trying to account for all the potential sources of heat and some of it IS man made, though as you point out it is very little. However, as a motorcycle rider I can tell you it is very noticeable when one enters a UHI area. In terms of measurement it is also quite apparent as one rides along how different the temperature can be in a short span of distance between sun and shade slight changes in elevation. Siting is a big issue. Forget CO2, what other sources of actual heat are there on this planet other than those I have mentioned?

Gil Dewart

The introduction of solid-earth geophysics here suggests that it might be interesting to assess the opinions of scientists in diverse fields, such as geology or biology, on the prevailing trends in climate research.

steven haney

Any study that concludes: “The findings suggest that models of the earth’s natural climate dynamics, and by extension human influenced climate change, may have to be adjusted.” is a giant step in the right direction. The implication that climate is determined by complex earth dynamics instead of simply “Carbon forces temperature” is a starting point for warmists to back down from defending climate models that have failed to predict climate for the past thirty years. I wonder if Mann, Hansen et.al. will use these findings as a side door to make an escape from their carbon obsessed hockey stick predictions… We can only hope.

Walt Allensworth

Interestingly, I Just saw a presentation by Dr. Bob Ballard at an ONR conference in Washington DC.
He spent a lot of time talking about the profound effects of these “black smokers” on sea-water chemistry.
He also said that there are about 10,000 documented black smokers, or underwater volcanoes that have actually been mapped along these oceanic ridges, but they estimate that there are 100,000! They are all down there spewing great gobs of chemicals into the water and we have barely scratched the surface in learning about them.

True that. We are only starting to learn about smokers. Only discovered them a couple of decades ago with the invention of deep sea drones. And these smokers support really archaic/exotic life forms that do not even metabolize oxygen or CO2! Wonderful new science on many fronts.
But as for ocean chemistry and heat, the oceans are really big and really deep with enormous thermal and buffering capacity. Plus, they and life have been around for at least 2.4 or so billion years based on the most recent algal mats paper published earlier this week. Much to learn, but not to worry about in re CAGW.

Stanley

Active black smokers were first observed in 1977, however the geological record from Archean times revealed deposits of massive sulphides that were laid down on or near the sea floor in volcanic conditions. Geologists generally agreed that sea floor volcanic processes were important in the 1960’s in formation of Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide deposits and maybe earlier, however it was not until 1977 that observational proof was acquired. So knowledge goes back more than a couple of decades.

sleepingbear dunes

My take away from this study is an acknowledgement of how little we really know about a lot of factors. Just publishing this in a distinguished publication gives credibility to questions that heretofore have been pooh poohed by the climate establishment.
Good for them. Now let’s go forward and devote resources to finding some more known unknowns and if we are real lucky, even an unknown unknown may pop up.

pochas

Supports the importance of tidal effects. Tides influence not only magma flows, but ocean currents and even atmospheric circulation and perhaps even the sun’s activity cycles. Understanding all of this is a major undertaking.

Kevin Kilty

“People have ignored seafloor volcanoes on the idea that their influence is small–but that’s because they are assumed to be in a steady state, which they’re not,” said the study’s author, marine geophysicist Maya Tolstoy of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Rivers predominately carry alkalinity to the oceans, but the merely slightly alkaline state of the oceans suggests some compensating chemistry. For a long time people thought that ocean pH was regulated ultimately by reactions between deep seawater and sediments, but as Walt Allensworth February 5, 2015 at 3:08 pm, says there are so many black, and clear, vents along the midocean ridges spewing acidic water, that these probably maintain ocean pH instead.

tty

The oceans are an alkaline liquid in an alkaline container. Not very surprising that they are alkaline. Fresh water on the other hand is normally mildly acidic, so rivers if anything predominantly carry acidity to the ocean.

richard verney

Doesn’t it depend upon the mineral characteristics of the river bed and erosion thereof?

Kevin Kilty

At what point in their flow are rivers normally acidic? If the water input to the oceans is acidic, then why is the ocean mildly alkaline? If dissolution of CO2 into water produces a weak acid, carbonic acid, why is the ocean mildly alkaline?

Doubting Rich

Something that develops slowly, like vulcanism, is likely to be finally triggered by a small cyclical change, as it gets slowly closer to that trigger point and the cyclical force makes that last little difference.

I am delighted to see this concept finally gaining serious attention. I have been thinking along these same lines (periodic orbital and precessional gravitational forces triggering plate tectonic activity) for over twenty years, although I must say that an effect from sea level variations hadn’t occurred to me. Two points: first, it seems to me that such gravity-induced tectonism provides a far better, and less problematical, explanation for climate variations with Milankovitch cyclicities, including cyclical ice ages, than radiative forcing does. Second, as my colleague, volcanologist Peter L. Ward, has argued, a far more likely driver of global warming than carbon dioxide is ozone depletion resulting from episodes of intense basaltic volcanism releasing chlorine to the atmosphere, such as the massive Icelandic eruptions that accompanied the Preboreal Warming about 11,300 years ago, ending the last ice age. The recent dramatic warming of the last 3 decades of the 20th century coinciding with massive releases of chlorofluorocarbons to the atmosphere tends to support this model, especially as that warming episode appears to have ended some 17 years ago. More on this at our website ozonedepletiontheory.info.

Coda to my post, as I forgot to check the “Notify me of new comments via email” checkbox.

Toto

It would be fun to find a link between LOD (length of day) and ice ages. The headlines so far have said both that global warming will lengthen the day and will shorten it. An ice age might shorten it, with massive glaciers near the poles and lower oceans, causing the earth to spin faster. Then there would be some adjustment needed to the geoid due to the changed gravity forces, going from oblate spheroid to less oblate spheroid, and those forces might generate some increased volcanism. If there aren’t enough mights woulds and coulds yet, an ice age buildup could cause massive volcanic outbursts which might then end the ice age.

TRG

Sketchy, very sketchy.

mpainter

Do seafloor volcanoes determine/alter climate?
Lunacy.
Geography determines climate.

IPCC AR5 TS.6 admits they have no idea what’s going on in the ocean below 2,000 meters which accounts for half of it.

NatureB

Fascinating research. I expect it will be validated via peer review as on-target and significant. Two posters mentioned important points for why there isn’t a perfect correlation: lag and triggering / tipping points of slowly-building events like volcanic eruption. The parochial view that the Earth is not subject to similar processes throughout the rest of the solar system diminished a lot with comet Shoemaker-Levy. There are tidally influenced / driven volcanoes on Io. Why should the Earth not be similarly influenced by the Sun?

“Researchers have suggested that as icecaps build on land, pressure on underlying volcanoes also builds, and eruptions are suppressed.”
Huh? Where on earth does ice cap volcanos? Maaaby Iceland and the Antarctic peninsula, or not. Any volcano worth its salt would burn through ice like a hot knife through butter. The rest of the ridge and trench system remains free to expel all the WATER and CO2 it likes.
There is good evidence that in the Cretaceous some music of the spheres harmonized to produce impressive amounts of WATER and CO2 from unusual amounts of volcanism. Interesting that this same music seems to have suppressed magnetic reversals.comment image?w=640
It is entirely possible that this massive outgassing produced a taller atmosphere, substantial adiabatic heating, and near surface pressure and density increases sufficient to aide in the evolution of the enormous mass and wingspans of dinosaurs.

Or is it the lack of magnetic reversal which made more volcanoes to erupt and also was the cause of the warmer Cretaceous?

David Cage

If they are scientists they have no right to presume anything. These patterns have been clearly there and have been pointed out to them years ago by those they dismissed as washing machine fixers. Any ten percent or more competent computer modeller would also assume that all sources of CO2 whether geological or biological should be included in any model. The absence of even data on so much should have told them the models were total tripe.

Oh, come on! And what do you think CAUSES the tectonic activity?
Anthropogenic CO2, of course!

Willis Eschenbach

I gotta say, I’m far from convinced. The author claims that mid-oceanic tides are causative of mid-oceanic volcanic “events”. Regarding what an event might be when it’s at home, she says:

Mid-Ocean Ridge events confirmed to be magmatic/volcanic in origin through observations of fresh seafloor lava and/or changes in vent fluid chemistry (see main text for references).

Seems terribly vague to me, elsewhere they are described as “mid-ocean ridge eruptions/diking events”. In any case, she says:

All but one of the events happen near the low in fortnightly tides, with four happening just following the lowest point in the fortnightly modulations.

That seems bizarre to me. Open ocean tides are typically small, on the order of perhaps a meter. The ocean depth in the regions is on the order of 3,000 metres. This means that the tides cause a variation of the weight on the ocean floor which is not a variation of even one percent. And it’s not a variation of even a tenth of a percent. It’s a variation on the order of three-hundredths of a percent …
I’m sorry, but I’m not buying that a variation of three hundredths of a percent of the weight on the ocean floor makes any difference at all. I think she’s looking at coincidence, particularly since her dataset is so dang small. How small? A pathetic sample of nine, count’em nine mid-oceanic “events”, eight of which make some kind of pattern with respect to tides? Not impressed.
w.

richard verney

“That seems bizarre to me. Open ocean tides are typically small, on the order of perhaps a meter. The ocean depth in the regions is on the order of 3,000 metres. This means that the tides cause a variation of the weight on the ocean floor which is not a variation of even one percent.”
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That was my immediate gut reaction, but perhaps something more than simple changes in the mass of over lying water is being influenced.

It is most likely flexing of the crust, it is relatively thin at the deep ocean floor in comparison with much thicker continental shelf.

I am just wondering if the tidal waves are not from the oceans, but tidal waves of the magma itself, as that is as good a liquid. When that gets its way towards the surface, one can imagine that it triggers more earthquakes, including “tidal” peaks…