From the ‘how long will it take some alarmist to blame this on global warming’ department and old man winter comes this map and warning that shows what is likely to be a “historic” blizzard with crippling amounts of snow:
* Update: shortly after pressing the publish button the map got updated to this version:
Via the NYC/Islip National Weather Service forecast office…you don’t often see language like this:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-260430- /O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX- EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING RUSH. SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.
For Boston, a Blizzard watch is in effect Tuesday:
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One snow storm on one day is not sufficient evidence to support either side of the discussion. NYC and Buffalo get hammered by snow every year. To see if this is beyond the norm, a person would have to look at the historical record for the last, at least, 30 years and determine if precipitation and snow on ground amounts have changed over that time and by what extent. I have a day job to get to so I lack the time. Do both sides of the discussion a favour and provide some historical context or stop wasting peoples time with postings whose only purpose is to “flame” the side of the argument you are against.
Snow amounts are an awful way to gauge climate change, they are just too variable to make any sense of from data at one location without a century or two’s data. Even regional data requires more than 30 years. I have data from here for 16 years or so. It won’t fit well here, but check out my summary at http://wermenh.com/sdd/penacook_sdd_summary.gif (better, go to http://wermenh.com/sdd/index.html , it’s the springboard to all the details. Snowfall here (near Concord NH) has ranged from 43″ to 129.5″.
Snow Depth Days, a measure of how snowbound a season was, range from 170 to 2565. I don’t have individual storms listed in one place, that might be worth doing this year, but for 5 of the season no month had more than 20″ so those can’t have what this storm may bring.
This storm is “beyond the norm,” it will be exceptional, it won’t be a repeat of the Blizzard of ’78.
BTW, I have a day job too. You don’t lack the time, you lack the interest. Then again, I haven’t posted December’s data yet. Penacook’s was quite unremarkable, 3.8″ snow, 53 SDDs. Much like the 77/78, IIRC.
I was in Nashua when it had it’s earliest measurable snowfall. (About an inch on October 9th 1979 if I remember correctly.) I moved to Concord not too long after that and was there for the next 2-3 years. If you ever brought a small appliance in to a “mom and pop” appliance repair shop on State Street back then, I might have been the one who worked on it.
What’s interesting is that the GFS model shows precip moving north into the Amer southwest from Mexico — almost monsoon-like, but actually jetstream originated. Not a huge precip event, but uncommon from that direction in mid-winter.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/psu_gfs-sfc_flan.html
IIRC, most of our (Gulf Coast) winter moisture comes from that direction; over Mexico from the Pacific.
Split Jet Stream due to Rex Block as a result of Negative PDO.
This is what makes me want to drink. Heavily. Give the list below of the 10 heaviest snowstorms recorded in NY Central park, what might you think the headline would be?
a. 2 of the top 3 snowfalls occurred in 1947 and 1888
b. 4 of the heaviest snowfalls occurred from 1888 to 1947
c. 5 of the heaviest snowfalls occurred 2003 thru 2011 but 3 of those storms all occurred in the same winter
d. This latest storm may or may not be historic depending on if it surpasses 18.1″ of 1941.
e. The storm of 1978 which had severe impacts because it was unexpected is not listed.
f. We are not listing total winter snowfall because that is boring.
g. Historic Blizzard hitting the Northeast
If you guessed g., you guessed correctly. Got to sell those newspapers…
1. 26.9″ Feb 11-12, 2006
2. 25.8″ Dec 26-27, 1947
3. 21.0″ Mar 12-14, 1888
4. 20.9″ Feb 25-26, 2010
5. 20.2″ Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 20.0″ Dec 26-27, 2010
7. 19.8″ Feb 16-17, 2003
8. 19.0″ Jan 26-27, 2011
9. 18.1″ Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 18.1″ Mar 7-8, 1941
I don’t think you understand how it works,. Climate change doesn’t increase annual snowfall, it increases the amount that falls as part of individual heavy precipitation events – i.e. big snowstorms.
And the fact that you can look at a list of the top ten snowfalls in 145 years and not find it unusual that half of them have occurred since 2003 (60% if this one gets into the list, as it appears it will) and 3(or 4) of them in the last five years demonstrates either incredible bias or a lack of stats courses at school.
You’d expect to see one or fewer of those snowfalls in the last ten years and zero in the last five, so these numbers represent either a statistical anomaly of epic proportion or climate change.
Are you suggesting that a list of Central Park snowstorms can be used to validate global climate change? New York must be a pretty special place on the planet.
It’s a data point. It demonstrates climate change in NYC, although I posted a paper the other day which looked at the phenomenon globally. I don’t reckon anyone here read it because it disagrees with the local bias.
In any case, I was responding to a comment which appeared to be making the point, if it was making any point at all, that this data argued against climate change. Which makes a whole lot LESS sense since it fits the predictions admirably..
Don’t know why I can’t reply to some replies on this blog.
In any case, regarding the record. None of the 10 biggest storms occurred between 1947 and 1996. So there’s this big 50 year gap in the record of the past 127 years. Maybe the climate’s just getting back to normal, if there is such a thing.
YOu do not seem to understand how it works. Over half of the “largest” snowstorms in the northeast occurred before CO2 became an issue. In other words, over the 100+ year record, roughly half occurred in the first half of the record, and half in the second.
And that is a trend how?
The snow of 1978 was the largest I’d ever seen. Even bigger than 1996 or 2006. There were chunks of snow higher than 2 story houses. It was huge. I don’t know what gauges they were using, but 1978 stands out far and away as the biggest storm. Also not listed the storm of 1963. And the following summer the Delaware river dried up to a trickle. You could walk across.
I read there were some significant shortcomings in measuring the 1978 snowfall in NYC. The storm was fine in Massachusetts so I never had a reason to save the details. There may some details on the web.
Exactly who didn’t expect the storm? It was covered on the morning news programs.
Lots of hype… Cheers!
Look at that map at the top of the article.
Chicago dodges a bullet !
So far pretty light winter (not so bitter cold, much less snow) compared to last year.
I thought it was going to be a bad one, given the cold water temps of the great lakes, but so far so good.
Of course we have to make it through February…
You might think that a Great Lakes freeze up would suppress the lake effect snow to some extent. What was your experience last winter?
Problem is that this smowmageddon will create some more emmigrants who will arrive just in time for one of our Gulf Coast Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes. Heck, Dallas already has so many transplants some of us would just prefer to give Dallas to Oklahoma. We’ve been trying for years to give Austin to California, but even California doesn’t want ’em….
Snowpocalypse-12.0 ! … Is this *really* a “blizzard” I thought they only happened in North Dakota / Montana, Minnesota … i.e. deep inland with vast plains and 300 mile stretches of snow to blow around. How can that happen when there’s tree, houses, various skyscrapers, and the Catskills in the road?
This pattern also continues the $#!@ur momisugly$# Rex Block off the West Coast. Could it be that a SW US megadrought may be an early warning sign of Laurentide accumulation mode?
Naw, just California and just the southern half, probably just weather.
I understand hundreds of thousands, no millions are going to be delighted by this rare and exciting event. I bet there are children in that area that have never seen snow.
🙂
OT-Kind’av! Hehe!
Re- Inflated footballs,
They should be inflated with nitrogen like my race team used on tires to win races WAAAY back when that were thought of as a “cheating”……., now used in all racing.
There’s an old auto racing saying “It aint cheating, till you get caught!!
I can imagine how Helium would help a tiny bit, but Nitrogen??
Nitrogen is unreactive at standard temperature and pressure
http://www.getnitrogen.org/sub.php?view=nascar
Nitrogen has a very small thermo expansion and nitrogen filled tires(footballs) will fluctuate less in temperature and pressure than air filled tires(footballs), and Helium is more apt to leak.
RUN FOR THE HILLS! CANCEL EVERYTHING! SPREAD FEAR AND PANIC! Also, don’t forget to stock up on crap that you don’t need, glue yourself to the advertisement riddled TV news, and put your full trust in a Mayor and Govenor that are impeding your ability to travel because they want to be elected again. Seriously people, what is the matter with you? Actually, I shouldn’t blame all of you. However, there is a large cross section of this population that is so incredibly “sheep-like” it’s amazing that your silly country is so successful. Just grow up. That’s all. Take responsibility for yourselves and stop being so goddamn gullible. It’s so maddening to see such a wonderful country like the US filled with such retards. It’s a snowstorm folks, not the black plague. Get over yourselves and carry on like adults….not braying asses.
Well, Chris, don’t judge everyone by the panic on the media screens. Most people, even directly in the affected areas, feel like you do — not like the media. Similar to the scaremongering about glo-bullcrap warming.
Another historic fail for the weather panic people. Too bad it cost so many people so much money to listen to these nuts.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/01/26/nyregion/snowfall-totals-around-the-region.html?_r=0
#MeteorologyFail