Massive blizzard forecast for New York and Boston area Tuesday – up to 3* feet of snow!

From the ‘how long will it take some alarmist to blame this on global warming’ department and old man winter comes this map and warning that shows what is likely to be a “historic” blizzard with crippling amounts of snow:

StormForecast-NYC

StormWarnings-NYC StormTotalSnowFcst* Update: shortly after pressing the publish button the map got updated to this version:

StormTotalSnowFcst2

Via the NYC/Islip National Weather Service forecast office…you don’t often see language like this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-260430-

/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/

NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-

SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-

EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST

TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST

TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE

  SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD

  CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH

  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

  LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH...STRONGEST

  ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH

  ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING RUSH.

  SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE

  HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT

  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

  TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT

  CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE.

  STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING

TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST

TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY

AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH

THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW

SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.

For Boston, a Blizzard watch is in effect Tuesday:

StormForecast-BOS

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189 thoughts on “Massive blizzard forecast for New York and Boston area Tuesday – up to 3* feet of snow!

    • Belichick is one of the top 5 greatest football coaches ever. However that doesn’t mean he will not use whatever straddles the boundaries of legal to get an advantage. But If inflation of the football was really an issue, why didn’t Luck say something during the game? The pressure changes with temperature.

      • At 1:31 PM on 25 January, jim Steele asks:

        But If inflation of the football was really an issue, why didn’t Luck say something during the game?

        Because Andrew Luck – the Indianapolis Colts quarterback – never had his hands on any of those footballs. It was only the New England Patriots’ game balls which proved to be under-inflated. The Colts’ game balls, on the other hand, were inflated within the proper range of pressure ordained by NFL rules.
        Er, you’ve never actually played football, have you?

      • Ahhh but it was Brady and Manning that got the rule changed in 2006 and then went on to say that
        the change would be advantageous:
        “The thing is, every quarterback likes it a little bit different,” Brady told the Sun-Sentinel at the time. “Some like them blown up a little bit more, some like them a little more thin, some like them a little more new, some like them really broken in.”
        http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/22/brady-pushed-for-rule-to-let-visiting-team-provide-own-footballs/
        http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-11-28/sports/0611270475_1_new-football-new-england-quarterback-competition-committee

      • Mcourtney January 25

        This is why I follow a simple game; cricket.

        It is difficult for North Americans to get excited about a game that can take 5 days

      • @Tucci, No I never played football at the college or professional level but that is a red herring. I also admit not being aware of the rules change that allowed the offense to use their own ball. I also well aware that each QB prefers the balls inflated differently to maximize his ability to throw the ball. So what constitutes an unfair advantage? Whether or not the Patriots football proves to have been slightly under inflated, how much of an impact did that have on the outcome of the game versus Belichick’s game planning and the Patriots execution. Obviously it had no impact on the lack of points put up by the Colts in a 45 to 7 game. I think Luck is a great QB and I wanted a game that was decided fairly, but the Pats defense shut him down. Would the Pats have scored more than 7 points with a ball inflated with one more pound of pressure? he Pats ran for over 180 yards and the cast off Blount had 3 TDs. Was the pressure of the ball significant? The inflated ball issue is a tempest in a teapot.

          • I take these exchanges where they go. If it gets “insulting,” it’s only because there’s REASON more than sufficient to so assess arrogant willful ignorance. But having busted HTML left off the board is actually for the best, ain’t it?

      • “It is difficult for North Americans to get excited about a game that can take 5 days”
        But there are breaks for tea.
        Incidentally, since the weather plays a part in cricket strategy (e.g. you can try to avoid defeat by slowing the game down until rain stops play) why haven’t we seen more about the threat Climate Change (™) poses for cricket?

      • Had to chuckle about the Bill Nye the entertainer guy’s explanation of the only way that it could have happened.
        “To really change the pressure, you need one of these,” he added, holding up an inflation needle.”
        http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/deflategate-debunker-bill-nye-picks-apart-belichick-s-defense-012515
        Guess Nye doesn’t understand the ideal gas law and effect of temperature. A good science guy would have mentioned the fact that they could have inflated the balls in the sauna or with one of their heaters in order to obtain the correct psi under a much higher temperature…………..then when the balls went outside at around 50 degrees pv=nrt kicked in.
        t goes down on the right side of the equation and pressure drops on the right side.
        However, since some games can be played in bitter cold weather, with temps well below freezing, which would really amplify this deflating effect, I’m wondering how the NFL would not know this basic science and require/verify that game balls be inflated and measured with air from the playing conditions.

      • And I assumed all of us here followed motor sport – not football or cricket. For me, the more CO2 there is fired from a supercharged nitro-methane burning dragster, the better. Anyway, what has all this got to do with blizzard forecasts?

      • “The inflated ball issue is a tempest in a teapot.” I think a more accurate phrase would be a tempest in a pigskin 😉
        Very few people are saying it would’ve affected the outcome of the AFC championship game. But it is still illegal. And this issue was brought up earlier when Indy played NE during the regular season: http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/deflate-gate-indianapolis-colts-complained-november-inflated-england/story?id=28365105
        Clearly it would not look good for NE if this has been going on for some time, especially given how close the Ravens game was.

      • Tucci78
        January 25, 2015 at 2:19 pm
        But the refs handled the balls for both sides all the time. Why did they not take the balls out of service? Do the refs not know what an under inflated ball feels like?

      • RoHa, I’ll declare my hand as a Test cricket tragic and also a Packers fan since the mid 60s. I think this hoohaa is a doddle compared to serious Ashes Test dodges of the past – The Ridge at Tent Bridge (?), every pitch in sub-continent ever etc. That said I’m with you on the Climate Change impact. We are sleepwalking into unknown horrors here. What’s the Goracle ever said about this impact? Nada. No street cred til he does.

      • t goes down on the right side of the equation and pressure drops on the right side…………p(pressure) is on the left side.

    • I’m guessing that the Patriots ball boy was instructed to put all of their tested footballs on the icy frozen ground, to soften them up, and that they were given to the ref to test just after having been pumped up in a hot environment, and kept in a warm enclosure.
      So no cheating, but just taking advantage of the fact that the rules don’t specify the test environment.
      It’s the same way the Americas Cup prelims back a few years after all the boats tested within weight limits in the Mediterranean off Spain, they were sent to Sweden for a set of race prelims there, and every boat tested overweight, because Sweden has higher gravity than Spain.
      The dummies wrote the limit in weight, instead of in mass.
      Now this is just my personal opinion and you shouldn’t include it in your PhD thesis.
      G

      • If one wants a conspiracy theory, how about this one:
        The ball boy was bribed to inflate the balls in a sauna by an evil Las Vegas gambler, named John D’Eezonest, in the hope Brady would perform poorly with a flabby ball. Sure enough, Brady threw the ball poorly in the first half of the game, including an interception. Therefore the referees, who had bet heavily on the Patriots, exchanged the flabby balls for properly inflated balls, whereupon Brady completed ten of eleven passes and was unstoppable.
        Now, back to talk about the storm…

  1. I have lived in several of the areas covered by this forecast. The projected snowstorm is ugly, but it doesn’t appear to be exceptional.

    • Sure doesn’t, the only thing that is different is the reporting of it before hand. During the Lindsey snowstorm My family and I spend 12 hours stuck in a car on Long Island and it took us two days to before we could go the 40 miles to NYC. Now that wasn’t as bad this is forecasted to be, and they did just the opposite of what they are doing now, they forecasted only about 2-3 inches.

      • That was the storm that prove beyond doubt that John Lindsey was the best mayor Manhattan ever had. As far as he was concerned Queens and Brooklyn could have fallen into the ocean. For all he did for the outer boroughs they’d still be under snow. That was also the snow storm that changed how mayors look on snow removal. One bad job and they are out.

    • Agreed, It’s a snowstorm. A big one. A blockbuster if you will. But I’ve lived in New England my whole life. Nothing…based on this forecast…we haven’t seen before.

      • Exactly – Joe Bastardi has been forecasting this for some time – saying that it is a close analogue of 1978.

      • Ian W. nope. I was trying to move to Munich just after the blizzard of 1978. We had a third floor aprtment in Stoneham. The snowfall was about 48 inches. Drifts were up to about 15 feet. On the lee side of our building snow drifted up our third floor balcony floor guessing maybe 18 feet above ground. Delayed the move for three weeks. Everything was paralyzed for a week.

  2. And as usual, you Yanks export everything (culture, products, etc) to us in the UK, so we will be getting it on Wednesday/Thursday. Thanks! 🙂

      • After a spell in Co we went to where you are heading….blue skies but a bit nippy at 65 Deg. Should be back in the 70’s later in the week. 🙂

      • I did that long ago. In the military, I was stationed in Maine, and Kansas, and I spent a winter in Adak, Alaska, and I’m done with snow. Now I live near Sacramento, CA, and the snow here is perfect; it’s over THERE, on the mountains where it is pretty, and generally NOT down here in my driveway. And I do not own a set of tire chains, and I don’t go into the mountains in the winter.

      • Well Bob what ever happened to “However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
        “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. “. Somebody had to bring it up again.
        Jim

      • It’s unlucky to be buried in snow without knowing what snow is. /s
        I wish you luck there. Extreme here is something like one feet in a week rather than three feet in a night.

    • But weren’t they predicting that Global Warming would make the climate of Britain resemble that of Southern Spain?
      (A threat which somehow failed to terrify the British.)

      • RoHa, us Brits terrified? Petrified more like (as in bloody freezing!) In the last one hundred years, us Brits have endured summer washouts on the whole – most recently in 2011 and 2012 when UK climatologists changed their predictions (again) to “Colder and wetter summers with an increased risk of severe flooding could become the norm for Britain.” The following year, 2013, was a beautiful scorcher of a summer (ha, ha) and joins the seven occasions when our century of summers were gorgeously comparable to Southern Spain, namely, 1915, 1949, 1959, 1976, 1990, 2003 and 2013.
        Incidentally, last year (March 2014), Met Office ‘scientists’ did a ‘U’-turn on their original predictions and said “on average, the UK will see hotter, drier summers in the long term due to global warming”. What’s not to like?

    • The waviness naturally happens and partly due to the mountains. The two major winter storm systems happen east of Colorado and in Alberta (clippers), as the curvature in jetstream causes upper air divergence creating lows that migrate eastward. This has always been the case. The high pressure in the Pacific during La NIna sends the jetstream further north before it descends onto the Great Plains. The weakening of the high pressure due to El Ninos cause less curvature and a more west to east flow. I grew up north of Boston, and had a morning paper route which finely attuned my senses to variations in snow. Lots of snow between the 50s and 70s when a similar negative PDO was in effect.

      • Indeed we are not in a La Nina or an El Nino according to definition. But that does not negate the fact that the temperatures in the Pacific OCean modulate the “waviness” or prove that the waviness is unnatural. Based on your comment I am sure you are a big adherent of Francis who tries to connect low Arctic Ice with waviness. More prominent scientists disagree with Francis including Trenberth arguing the cooler eastern Pacific causes stronger high pressures. So Barry, which Arctic sea or seas other than the Bering, are currently so below average that it causes stronger high pressure in the eastern Pacific. And please explain the mechanism.

      • From a recent paper by Jennifer Francis (she uses the word “wavy”):
        “New metrics and evidence are presented that support a linkage between rapid Arctic warming, relative to Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, and more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns. We find robust relationships among seasonal and regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, weaker zonal upper-level winds, and a more meridional flow direction. These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase.”

      • Barry
        January 25, 2015 at 2:34 pm
        Jennifer Francis has the tail wagging the dog. There is very little energy in the polar regions to alter circulations, the energy comes from the tropics. Therefore , if the Hadley cells become weaker due to slightly weaker Sun, then they are smaller and less vigorous, their associated jetstreams and the Ferrel cells move equatorward and the jetstreams become latitudinal due to large Rossby waves. The polar cells therefore expand equatorward and have a weaker circulation with latitudinal jets allowing mixing of warm air toward the poles and cold polar air to the temperate latitudes.

  3. Massive blizzard up to 3* feet of snow!
    No doubt we will hear the old chestnut – Massive blizzards and very cold temperatures are not inconsistent with CAGW!
    Come on Pretend Nobel Laureate Mann, get on Twtter and tell everyone!

  4. Anthony,
    The “second storm” [as is being described by media] appears difficult for the international models. There is significant disagreement across these forecasts. At present [4:07 PM, EST], I would like to report that the Philadelphia stations are being quite candid. There is no hype. The clear message is: the models are so divergent that a forecast for 24 hours out is impossible for the DELMARVA up to Philadelphia. At the same time, there seems to be a consensus that Northern New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and New England will experience a great deal of snow. Worse, cold, high velocity winds has the potential for damage.
    Kudos to the Weather Bell team again. On the FREE Saturday summary, Joe Bastardi flagged the last week of January into February as the beginning of a winter storm season which MAY approach the 76-77 years. He has not fully stepped out on that ledge yet. However, Weather Bell is the only organization to stick its neck out. They began in the fall. If climate alarmists begin shouting “Climate, Climate, Climate”.. I can clearly remember thanking God that, we had a fireplace to sleep around and cook for a week back in those days.
    Best Regards,

    • Historically, February is the month with the most frequent heavy snows..
      I was in Massachusetts for the February 1978 blizzard that shut down the streets for 3 days, emptied the supermarkets, and brought in the National Guard. Due to the way the low pressure systems work their way up the coast, the days preceding the storm were warm and I was jooging in a t-shirt, followed by one of the regions greatest blizzards. Its weather not climate change. Appreciate the power of natural weather.

      • Bastardi has mentioned both 76/77 and 77/78. The former, IIRC, was mostly just cold. 77/78 had only two significant storms in Eastern Massachusetts. However, they both set 24 hour records for snow at Logan airport. The first had little wind that was poorly forecast, the second was a hellacious blizzard but the snow didn’t start until 1100 after everyone had gone to work or school. That was the major cause of the traffic disaster that evening.
        While the storm was pure joyous excitement for me (except for my car getting blown off track in the only true whiteout I’ve even been) (and maybe the shortcut I took through an old orchard while walking into work that night), the folks along the southern New England coast saw thousand of homes destroyed in the astronomically high tides and about 100 died.
        At this point the storm is not expected to be as bad as ’78, but you can bet people are paying attention.
        I have two good WWW pages on the storm:
        http://wermenh.com/blizz78.html
        My personal account for the web written I think for the 15th anniversary of the storm, and the first 5-year anniversary when the Web was a good medium for it. This is one of my favorite essays.
        http://wermenh.com/blizz78a.html
        More technical stuff that didn’t fit above. I’ve added some to it, so it has information about the first storm and the other blizzard of ’78 in the midwest. Today may be the anniversary of the lowest air pressure ever recorded in Cleveland, Ohio.
        If anyone tries to claim that CAGW is getting more extreme, these storms should squash that. If people say that’s only one year, there are plenty of others we can point to. 1978 has millions of witnesses who still clean out the grocery stores of bread and milk before a storm.
        Me, I bought some bread (yay, they had some), did not buy milk, did buy toilet paper this afternoon.

      • Ric, in ’78 Rhode Island was closed for a week due to bad timing that stranded thousands of cars on Rt.95. Everybody was let out of work and school at the same time in mid-afternoon when the snowfall was coming down heavily. Memory of that storm still scares the populace and politicians when 3 inches are predicted.

      • I remember the 60s in a small town north of Boston as consistently having 2-3′ banks of plowed snow along the streets that were great for tunneling. And drifts we’d jump off the roof into and never hit ground. IFRC, I delivered the Lawrence Tribune, The Boston Globe and another Boston paper, evenings.

    • Agreed. And actually they’ve been calling for a big winter in the east starting last spring. They’re big on analogs, looking for years with similar SST’s. Of course, they make their share of mistakes. Who doesn’t in that business. Bigger problem is for all his talent, Bastardi’s a major drama queen. Never seen him miss on the mild said of a storm. When he’s wrong, it’s always on the extreme end. The winter of 2011-12 I believe it was, was a major bust…and embarrassment for WB… during which they kept hyping snow and cold which never arrived. Kept it up late into February. That was the year we had temps in the 80’s in early March here in Mass.

    • Robert, I wish all of the TV media outlets were treating this storm with candor. Unfortunately too many of the TV outlets are acting as if something like this has never occurred before, using their ominous “Storm Center” intro music and acting as if this were the end of the world as we know it.
      The gullible head out to the supermarkets and buy enough food to last a month (most of which will spoil before they’ll get around to consuming it) and emptying store shelves. There are runs at the hardware stores for ice melt, shovels, generators, and snowblowers. I could see this is this were happening during July, bit it’s winter and this kind of stuff happens almost every winter.
      The people (and the media) need to get a grip.

  5. Impossible. These sorts of things can’t happen nowadays. We need to do something about such irresponsible weather forecasts. Where’s Holdren?

    • Most people in central Jersey were expecting heavy, historic snowfall starting Monday in the afternoon. Our medical office closed after the afternoon patients cancelled because they were convinced by the irresponsible weather readers it was unsafe. Even most of the morning patients cancelled. All the staff was present willing and able to do their duty. Their were no major roads problems all day. Dear weather readers your hyperbole is very harmful and self serving. Perhaps Chicken Little was the first meteorologist and today’s meteorologists just continue the tradition: The Sky Is Falling.

  6. Maybe another New England Blizzard of ’78? (I hope not for those living there.) But the forecast doesn’t look as bad. After the fact they’ll just make it seem worse. Most of those there didn’t live through “worse”.
    On the bright side, maybe some of the younger generation will figure out that “Man-made CO2 = Warming = Blizzards” doesn’t quite add up.

    • Well, not if your neighbor has been protesting the cops and you are a cop. But I agree Fox News is just so full of it whenever a storm comes. I guess this started with Shep Smith and Karina, which was bad no doubt , but nowhere near as bad he made it out to be.

    • Yesterday’s storm had hurricane force winds and a central pressure akin to a cat 3 hurricane. Its offshore fast forward motion and relatively low pressure in Canada kept the isobars spread apart.
      Tuesday’s storm is going to be closer, and stalling near Nantucket. While the central pressure may not be as low, we’ll have high pressure in Canada so we’ll wind up much stronger winds. The duration and tides won’t be as bad as they were in 1978, but I expect that Cantore will pick a stretch of coastline he can evacuate from if necessary.

  7. While it might not seem as bad as the snow storm. We are due a cold spell here in central Florida that I find horrible. I may go down to 40F in places! That just ain’t right!
    I do blame Mann-Made global whatever. After all, has it ever been 40 in January before???? (no, the hard freezes of the 70s don’t count)

  8. You know, if forecasts verify, five of the top ten snowfall events in NYC since 1869 will have occurred over the past nine years. Or to put it another way: from 1869 through 2005, NYC experienced a snowfall sufficiently heavy enough to still remain on the top-ten list today an average of once every 19-20 years; since 2006, it will have seen one of those events about every 2 years. I wouldn’t say that’s in any way evidence of climate change–but it stretches credulity to claim it’s no more than just coincidence, don’t you think?

    • Mr. Pettit,
      I disagree. The weather in the Mid-Atlantic varies greatly by less than 200 miles. The winter wind and snow levels from the South East border of Pennsylvania to New York City are completely uncorrelated. Temperatures are consistent for warming across the same 200 miles. New York City is located in the transition zone from Mid-Atlantic to New England. It’s a weather and not a climate “crap shoot”. This from a 68 year old Jersey guy who grew up as close to Liberty’s rear end as a person could get. Then moved to Delaware and could see a completely divergent weather and growing season pattern. The separation is less than 220 miles. The variability of this micro geography is my personal proof point that those who argue to understand the global climate drivers are mistaken. Last, they should not bring up sea levels. From Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia, the changes can happen in less than 100 miles
      Regards,.

      • @ Robert, I live “close” to the the “wet” coast, Canada/ Washington State, BUT about 220 miles inland from Vancouver our climate is so incredibly different from there it boggles the mind, our annual rainfall is less then 11″ something they can get in a month this time of year ( the rain shadow of the Coast mountains of course). Reading these reports are kind of funny ( oh we did get 18″ of snow last week in 36 hrs, it’s all gone now, just got prepared and read a book or two for a few days, got lucky no power outs like in the past).

    • Sure. This is very strong statistical evidence that the climate is changing. Are you saying that this looks like an effect of CO2? My first guess would be an AMO effect.

    • Bernie Raino at Accuweather suggests a “dry slot” could poke north to Boston, and they might “only” get a foot, as areas just to their west get a yard. (Or meter, if you insist.)

    • Funny that Waterloo, Ontario, home of BlackBerry, Land Of Math, is in the “snow belt” and is getting nothing. WUWT?
      We have a naturally aspirated skating rink behind our house without a flake on it. I took two grandchildren out there this afternoon to go sledding. They hardly know what snow is! They had no idea that a snowman could be made by rolling a ball of it to get bigger ‘by itself’. I had to SHOW them!
      Maybe it has something to do with the fact they live in Singapore. Don’t they have snow there any more? What’s happening to the world?

      • The best tale I heard about that 1717 snow was that apple orchards were damaged, because the snow was so deep and packed that sheep were eating the twigs on the tops of the trees.
        Single story houses were completely buried, and people entered and exited two story houses by windows on the lee sides.
        They don’t make ’em like they used to…..unless this one matches it.
        Actually the Great Snows of 1717 was likely a string or nor’easters, one right after the other.

  9. Gavin will don his dapper Gay SuperHockeyStickMan suite and lean out his office window to proclaim to New Yorkers, “Peoples of the Earth, Have no fear. I will use my Anthropogenically Correct Consensus Global Warming X-Ray Vision to melt the snow and warm the air.” Unfortunately is will cause massive flooding and disruption of electrical systems, especially Hospitals, across the boughs leading to 10s of thousands dead. Ha ha. 😉

  10. The explanation I’ve seen given on alarmist blogs is that Global Warming means that the air holds more moisture, which causes heavier snowfalls.
    I don’t have a sarc tag for this, because that’s really what they believe, or did some years ago, when I quit wasting my time by going to those sites.

    • Funny how they change the tune to fit the narrative. Before it was, “the children aren’t going to know what snow is”.

  11. Lived there then and it was that bad, roads in and around. Boston shut down for a week, homes on the coast were demolished, snow had to be removed with front end loaders, snow drifts were so high we were jumping off 3 stories into the snow, thousands of cars were abandoned on highways…….not that bad?

    • Is that Tom Brady’s inflated or deflated snow, oh they are playing in Phoenix they’d better bring a big needle, it’ hot there or are they playing in an air conditioned covered stadium!

  12. If the complete truth were told, the trend of CONTIGUOUS US WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES have actually been declining since 1995 at (-1.13F/decade)
    Since 1998 US WINTER ANOAMLIES have been declining at (-1.79 F/DECADE) –
    Indivdual months of the winter all show declining temperatures since 1998
    DEC -0.36 F/decade (declining)
    JAN -1.52 F decade (declining)
    FEB -2.77 F/decade (declining)
    So the worst of the winter will still be next month if the past 17 years are any guide and so far it has been. There will likely be other major snow storms before this winter is out.

  13. We have passed the point where the media has to associate a weather event with man-made global warming. It is now firmly entrenched in the popular mind: whenever there’s bad weather, it’s caused by climate change, and we’re to blame.

  14. I live in one of the more notorious lake effect areas in the world … I have an incredible all wheel drive vehicle, the world’s best winter tires, a Honda snow-thrower and a Honda generator, two wood stoves, 8 full cords of seasoned maple and oak, and two face cords of fruit woods, (mixed apple, cherry, etc. that make that nice snap, crackle, pop sound), three bottles of great single malts and two cases of boot-leg micro-brew from Park City, Utah … so I have just one thing to say ……………………..BRING IT ON!!!!!

      • The SUV has its full compliment of 24 gallons, then about 21-22 on hand for the other devices. The generator will provide the minimum power I need for a few lights and the stereo for about 1 gallon every 4 hours, pull out a little old Leon Russel and your off to the races, FYI: I highly recommend the 15 gallon Todd gas cart, you can get them at TankCity.com for a reasonable price.

  15. This storm is the final straw for me. After about 63 years of living mostly in New Haven County Connecticut, I am packing my bags to go to the Big Island of Hawaii. I much rather see warnings of high surf than blizzards, 79 degrees partly cloudy instead of 24 degrees with heavy snow.If I miss snow that much I will venture up Mauna Kea.

    • The activists have long predicted that one of the terrible consequences of CAGW would be wholescale migration to pleasanter climes. Seems they have been right all along. Just got the direction wrong.

  16. Yeah it’s been cold this season in Perth Australia too. Only hit 43C or 109.4F once this season so far. Think I’ll go down the beach whilst I still can. I blame global warming of course. 40 consecutive days of it not reaching 40C just isn’t natural!

  17. Blame them painting the Stevenson Screens with white paint instead of white wash. The world is actually getting colder, but the white paint on the screens is giving a one degree C extra punch. That is true, is it not, Anthony?

    • At 4:38 PM on 25 January, philjourdan observed:

      Dave Toleris beat all of them by 24 hours.

      He would. I’ve known Toleris for more than thirty years now, and he was a good meteorologist even as an undergraduate. Back then, he was actually trying to put together a non-computer (print-on-paper exclusively) heuristic hurricane simulation “game” suitable for non-meteorologists to use in examining these phenomena.

  18. Wow .. Up to (there they go again with that ‘up to’) 3 feet of snow .. I’m really trying to be impressed .. I got through the Snowvember event with just 3′, while a few miles south of me they got a bit more at around 5′ of snow, while a neighboring town got 7′ of snow .. and the schools haven’t yet used up their “snow days” .. so excuse me while I don’t get all that excited .. but you can bet that the networks, based out of NYC, will really hyperventilate over their coverage.
    I guess people have to get excited about something.

    • Yeah Leon. I saw a news report in Vermont last year that said “this area may get 6-18 inches.” Really, how do they narrow thing down that precisely.

  19. “In the mid-latitudes, there is a widespread increase in the frequency of very heavy precipitation during the past 50 — 100 years;
    Both model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere and the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations indicate an increasing probability of heavy precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States.”
    http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/ghegerl/Groisman_et_al_…s_intensity.pdf
    That’s from 2004 and its observations have been further reinforced over the last decade. There are many scholarly papers around this, but you don’t need to be a scientist, the physical basis for the phenomenon is quite simple. For those confused, rest assured that as temps continue to rise, more precipitation will start to fall as rain, and heavy snowfalls will start to diminish again.

    • the resource at your linked URL “does not exist”
      what do you mean 50-100 years? 50 years or 100 years or some number between 50 & 100?
      I bet you didn’t really mean more greenhouses in the sky.
      how can past data indicate a future probability? Surely, that’s interpretation’s job?
      If you’re making a prediction, then it’s not a probability; it’s increased precipitation. The probability just describes the state of anticipation.
      So, heavy snowfalls have been increasing for (maybe)100 years (along with heavy rainfalls) but, reassuringly, they will start to diminish soon. This is clear from reinforced observations.

    • GeeJam,
      But it’s fun sometimes playing Whack-A-Mole. My turn!
      SHF, what you’re doing is cherry-picking one particular location. Things change, you know.
      Step back and look at the big picture: global temps have fluctuated an amazingly tiny 0.7ºC — over a century and a half! You and the alarmist gang are trying to make that into a big deal.
      Won’t work. Nothing unusual is happening. We’ve seen it all before, and to a much greater degree.
      Try being rational. Put yourself in the shoes of skeptics, and pretend you are unbiased, and emotionally disconnected from the climate scare… if you can.
      Now, try to explain to one of the other alarmists that a 0.7º wiggle is something to go all Chicken Licken about.
      See?

      • The paper addresses the whole planet. If the link doesn’t work, google it, it’s easy to find.

      • Also good on ya for not letting me get away with it. One of these days I really will get bored and leave. But I occasionally learn things here.

    • So less drought or more drought? Used to be more drought, then that didnt happen, became more precip. Goodness whats life like constantly chasing your tails? I just had to say it.

  20. It’s a non-event down here in the DC metro area in terms of frozen precip -we’re mainly getting rain and maybe an inch or two of snow at the tail end of this storm.

  21. in mid maine supposed to get 24 inches or so.
    no biggie.
    the issue is we are supposed ot get 55-60 mph winds near the end and in wooded areas that always means no power.
    generator/cars/tractor all gassed up
    [good prep’s. Stay safe. .mod]

    • It is a temptation, in the context of “CAGW”, to downplay this a bit by comparing it to past blizzards.
      But whether this one has 55-60 mph winds compared to a past one that might have had 56-61 mph winds is small comfort to those that are in it.
      As “.mod” said, stay safe.
      Now, back to the context of “CAGW”, where’s the “W”?
      (And please don’t quote Dennis Quaid.8-)

    • I try to learn from my mistakes mod 🙂
      had one gen fail on me before so I actually have 2 here, one spare only needs 30 min of hookup wiring to run me. it uses different connections than my main one and I am not a fan of adapter pigtails to backfeed.
      turn off incoming power, turn off main at house breaker then backfeed from well ventilated outbuilding 40 feet away with a 7500 normal-9000 burst unit.
      keeps the well running and the furnace on.
      [Been there, run that. Stay safe. .mod]

  22. I supervise 26 hired plows in Cambridge Ma. Every time I hear that we are going to get 24 inches, we only end up with 8 or so.
    I will believe it when I see it. 40 hours of overtime would be nice though …….
    White Gold.
    Tommy B

    • honestly I would be surprised to see the actual total to hit 22 here (mid maine I expect 15 personally but….) however I have fields on one side of me so my drifts in a 12″ storm are usually 22″ so who knows.
      the drifts going to be the issue here I expect.
      nothing but a thing in the grand scheme of it and we’ve been pretty lucky this winter so far.

  23. I guess NYC’s de Blasio almost got it right … it’s an hysterical snow coming their way .. and all the network news readers will display common hysterical touches .. and come ground hog day, the 49th big game will be a memory as will all the hysterics as the PA big rat predicts six more weeks of winter.

  24. Growing up on a farm in central Wisconsin during the late 50s, 60s, and 70s, we learned by hard experience to always prepare for a long, harsh winter. Nearly everything we did from spring’s first snow melt to fall’s first snow flurries was focused by preparations for the next winter.
    Planting and harvesting oats, corn, and baled alfalfa for winter animal feed, as well as baled oats straw and marsh hay for winter bedding.
    Planting, harvesting, and preserving a wide variety and volume of fruits and vegetables from our family gardens. Preserving meant canning, pickling, blanching and freezing, or drying and storing the canned goods on shelves in the basement. Dried goods were stored in sacks and kept in the basement close enough to the wood furnace to keep them dry. Squash, apples, and root crops were stored in the old ‘ice house’ cellar, under the milk house attached to the barn.
    Raising and fattening hogs and steers for fall sale… and butchering for our family’s freezers.
    Felling inferior, diseased, or dead trees in the late winter woods followed by cutting, splitting, and stacking the wood to dry sufficiently over the summer for the following winters use in our home’s wood furnace.
    Those who have shared this childhood and ‘coming of age’ experience on northern tier farms know far better than any boy scout the true meaning of Be Prepared! Winter is coming……

    • Mac,
      Yesterday on some site they had a list of 10 things they figured the readers did not know how to do. You just listed many of them. I can do, and have done, 9 out of the 10. I took a pass on being able to “make lace” – crochet doilies. While my mother did show me how, and I did one, I preferred an ax and a chainsaw.
      Stay warm.

    • Ah back to fighting with nature. That’s how I remember it. Sure glad I don’t have to do that anymore. Did you ever try to imagine how much harder it would have been without the gasoline for the chainsaws and trucks to cut and haul the wood. All metal and glass used to make those tools had to be manufactured in fossel fueled hungry industry. The metal ore had to be doug out of the ground using fossel fueled machines. Mac, I’m not trying to belittle your early life. I would love to figure out how to live without relying on someone else’s work. To do that without the simpelist of metal tools would require us to live like the early natives. I hope no one in the future will have to live that way again.

  25. I can’t wait to see the CAGW apologists spin this record snow as further “irrefutable” evidence of Glooooobal Waaaarming….
    You know they will…
    You’ll get the ol’ weather isn’t climate, GW is causing more and stronger Arctic Vortices, GW is causing more ocean evaporation, which is causing more snow, snowstorms will eventually disappear–just you wait! and wait and wait…., ad nauseam…
    How much longer will this CAGW psudo-science be take seriously? It’s becoming such a joke.
    Where is Dr. Viner when you need him?… I thought snow was a thing of the past?
    Not so much…

  26. The main reason I couldn’t get the F out of New England fast enough in 2012.
    Was 70ºF here in Tucson today. Love it.

    • Snow, and also the black flies, keeps the population of New England down, as people who come for the area’s charm learn it isn’t always so charming.
      My worry now is that they have closed one too many if New England’s power plants, due to a ding-bat fear of “carbon”. It is one thing to reduce population because people emigrate. It is quite another to freeze them.

  27. MCourtney — Oh, SURE — no ball tampering in cricket!
    BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA….sorry. You might be a Pakistan supporter.

  28. One snow storm on one day is not sufficient evidence to support either side of the discussion. NYC and Buffalo get hammered by snow every year. To see if this is beyond the norm, a person would have to look at the historical record for the last, at least, 30 years and determine if precipitation and snow on ground amounts have changed over that time and by what extent. I have a day job to get to so I lack the time. Do both sides of the discussion a favour and provide some historical context or stop wasting peoples time with postings whose only purpose is to “flame” the side of the argument you are against.

    • Snow amounts are an awful way to gauge climate change, they are just too variable to make any sense of from data at one location without a century or two’s data. Even regional data requires more than 30 years. I have data from here for 16 years or so. It won’t fit well here, but check out my summary at http://wermenh.com/sdd/penacook_sdd_summary.gif (better, go to http://wermenh.com/sdd/index.html , it’s the springboard to all the details. Snowfall here (near Concord NH) has ranged from 43″ to 129.5″.
      Snow Depth Days, a measure of how snowbound a season was, range from 170 to 2565. I don’t have individual storms listed in one place, that might be worth doing this year, but for 5 of the season no month had more than 20″ so those can’t have what this storm may bring.
      This storm is “beyond the norm,” it will be exceptional, it won’t be a repeat of the Blizzard of ’78.
      BTW, I have a day job too. You don’t lack the time, you lack the interest. Then again, I haven’t posted December’s data yet. Penacook’s was quite unremarkable, 3.8″ snow, 53 SDDs. Much like the 77/78, IIRC.

      • I was in Nashua when it had it’s earliest measurable snowfall. (About an inch on October 9th 1979 if I remember correctly.) I moved to Concord not too long after that and was there for the next 2-3 years. If you ever brought a small appliance in to a “mom and pop” appliance repair shop on State Street back then, I might have been the one who worked on it.

  29. This is what makes me want to drink. Heavily. Give the list below of the 10 heaviest snowstorms recorded in NY Central park, what might you think the headline would be?
    a. 2 of the top 3 snowfalls occurred in 1947 and 1888
    b. 4 of the heaviest snowfalls occurred from 1888 to 1947
    c. 5 of the heaviest snowfalls occurred 2003 thru 2011 but 3 of those storms all occurred in the same winter
    d. This latest storm may or may not be historic depending on if it surpasses 18.1″ of 1941.
    e. The storm of 1978 which had severe impacts because it was unexpected is not listed.
    f. We are not listing total winter snowfall because that is boring.
    g. Historic Blizzard hitting the Northeast
    If you guessed g., you guessed correctly. Got to sell those newspapers…
    1. 26.9″ Feb 11-12, 2006
    2. 25.8″ Dec 26-27, 1947
    3. 21.0″ Mar 12-14, 1888
    4. 20.9″ Feb 25-26, 2010
    5. 20.2″ Jan 7-8, 1996
    6. 20.0″ Dec 26-27, 2010
    7. 19.8″ Feb 16-17, 2003
    8. 19.0″ Jan 26-27, 2011
    9. 18.1″ Jan 22-24, 1935
    9. 18.1″ Mar 7-8, 1941

    • I don’t think you understand how it works,. Climate change doesn’t increase annual snowfall, it increases the amount that falls as part of individual heavy precipitation events – i.e. big snowstorms.
      And the fact that you can look at a list of the top ten snowfalls in 145 years and not find it unusual that half of them have occurred since 2003 (60% if this one gets into the list, as it appears it will) and 3(or 4) of them in the last five years demonstrates either incredible bias or a lack of stats courses at school.
      You’d expect to see one or fewer of those snowfalls in the last ten years and zero in the last five, so these numbers represent either a statistical anomaly of epic proportion or climate change.

      • Are you suggesting that a list of Central Park snowstorms can be used to validate global climate change? New York must be a pretty special place on the planet.

      • It’s a data point. It demonstrates climate change in NYC, although I posted a paper the other day which looked at the phenomenon globally. I don’t reckon anyone here read it because it disagrees with the local bias.
        In any case, I was responding to a comment which appeared to be making the point, if it was making any point at all, that this data argued against climate change. Which makes a whole lot LESS sense since it fits the predictions admirably..

      • Don’t know why I can’t reply to some replies on this blog.
        In any case, regarding the record. None of the 10 biggest storms occurred between 1947 and 1996. So there’s this big 50 year gap in the record of the past 127 years. Maybe the climate’s just getting back to normal, if there is such a thing.

      • YOu do not seem to understand how it works. Over half of the “largest” snowstorms in the northeast occurred before CO2 became an issue. In other words, over the 100+ year record, roughly half occurred in the first half of the record, and half in the second.
        And that is a trend how?

    • The snow of 1978 was the largest I’d ever seen. Even bigger than 1996 or 2006. There were chunks of snow higher than 2 story houses. It was huge. I don’t know what gauges they were using, but 1978 stands out far and away as the biggest storm. Also not listed the storm of 1963. And the following summer the Delaware river dried up to a trickle. You could walk across.

    • I read there were some significant shortcomings in measuring the 1978 snowfall in NYC. The storm was fine in Massachusetts so I never had a reason to save the details. There may some details on the web.
      Exactly who didn’t expect the storm? It was covered on the morning news programs.

  30. Look at that map at the top of the article.
    Chicago dodges a bullet !
    So far pretty light winter (not so bitter cold, much less snow) compared to last year.
    I thought it was going to be a bad one, given the cold water temps of the great lakes, but so far so good.
    Of course we have to make it through February…

    • You might think that a Great Lakes freeze up would suppress the lake effect snow to some extent. What was your experience last winter?

  31. Problem is that this smowmageddon will create some more emmigrants who will arrive just in time for one of our Gulf Coast Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes. Heck, Dallas already has so many transplants some of us would just prefer to give Dallas to Oklahoma. We’ve been trying for years to give Austin to California, but even California doesn’t want ’em….

  32. Snowpocalypse-12.0 ! … Is this *really* a “blizzard” I thought they only happened in North Dakota / Montana, Minnesota … i.e. deep inland with vast plains and 300 mile stretches of snow to blow around. How can that happen when there’s tree, houses, various skyscrapers, and the Catskills in the road?

  33. This pattern also continues the $#!@$# Rex Block off the West Coast. Could it be that a SW US megadrought may be an early warning sign of Laurentide accumulation mode?

  34. I understand hundreds of thousands, no millions are going to be delighted by this rare and exciting event. I bet there are children in that area that have never seen snow.

  35. OT-Kind’av! Hehe!
    Re- Inflated footballs,
    They should be inflated with nitrogen like my race team used on tires to win races WAAAY back when that were thought of as a “cheating”……., now used in all racing.
    There’s an old auto racing saying “It aint cheating, till you get caught!!

  36. RUN FOR THE HILLS! CANCEL EVERYTHING! SPREAD FEAR AND PANIC! Also, don’t forget to stock up on crap that you don’t need, glue yourself to the advertisement riddled TV news, and put your full trust in a Mayor and Govenor that are impeding your ability to travel because they want to be elected again. Seriously people, what is the matter with you? Actually, I shouldn’t blame all of you. However, there is a large cross section of this population that is so incredibly “sheep-like” it’s amazing that your silly country is so successful. Just grow up. That’s all. Take responsibility for yourselves and stop being so goddamn gullible. It’s so maddening to see such a wonderful country like the US filled with such retards. It’s a snowstorm folks, not the black plague. Get over yourselves and carry on like adults….not braying asses.

    • Well, Chris, don’t judge everyone by the panic on the media screens. Most people, even directly in the affected areas, feel like you do — not like the media. Similar to the scaremongering about glo-bullcrap warming.

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