From the ‘how long will it take some alarmist to blame this on global warming’ department and old man winter comes this map and warning that shows what is likely to be a “historic” blizzard with crippling amounts of snow:
* Update: shortly after pressing the publish button the map got updated to this version:
Via the NYC/Islip National Weather Service forecast office…you don’t often see language like this:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-260430- /O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX- EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING RUSH. SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.
For Boston, a Blizzard watch is in effect Tuesday:
Lived there then and it was that bad, roads in and around. Boston shut down for a week, homes on the coast were demolished, snow had to be removed with front end loaders, snow drifts were so high we were jumping off 3 stories into the snow, thousands of cars were abandoned on highways…….not that bad?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, and causes drought, and floods, ice ages,earthquakes, and space alien attacks.
In 1978? It was another sign of the coming ice age.
Ba****ds are stealing all the snow this winter as well. Can’t you share?
Is that Tom Brady’s inflated or deflated snow, oh they are playing in Phoenix they’d better bring a big needle, it’ hot there or are they playing in an air conditioned covered stadium!
The Area Forecast Discussions for Boston and New York City are interesting and instructive.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
If the complete truth were told, the trend of CONTIGUOUS US WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES have actually been declining since 1995 at (-1.13F/decade)
Since 1998 US WINTER ANOAMLIES have been declining at (-1.79 F/DECADE) –
Indivdual months of the winter all show declining temperatures since 1998
DEC -0.36 F/decade (declining)
JAN -1.52 F decade (declining)
FEB -2.77 F/decade (declining)
So the worst of the winter will still be next month if the past 17 years are any guide and so far it has been. There will likely be other major snow storms before this winter is out.
We have passed the point where the media has to associate a weather event with man-made global warming. It is now firmly entrenched in the popular mind: whenever there’s bad weather, it’s caused by climate change, and we’re to blame.
I live in one of the more notorious lake effect areas in the world … I have an incredible all wheel drive vehicle, the world’s best winter tires, a Honda snow-thrower and a Honda generator, two wood stoves, 8 full cords of seasoned maple and oak, and two face cords of fruit woods, (mixed apple, cherry, etc. that make that nice snap, crackle, pop sound), three bottles of great single malts and two cases of boot-leg micro-brew from Park City, Utah … so I have just one thing to say ……………………..BRING IT ON!!!!!
How much gasoline?
dang itI knew I forgot something…. 🙂
The SUV has its full compliment of 24 gallons, then about 21-22 on hand for the other devices. The generator will provide the minimum power I need for a few lights and the stereo for about 1 gallon every 4 hours, pull out a little old Leon Russel and your off to the races, FYI: I highly recommend the 15 gallon Todd gas cart, you can get them at TankCity.com for a reasonable price.
gads. I’d move. But don’t move down here. We’re full.
This storm is the final straw for me. After about 63 years of living mostly in New Haven County Connecticut, I am packing my bags to go to the Big Island of Hawaii. I much rather see warnings of high surf than blizzards, 79 degrees partly cloudy instead of 24 degrees with heavy snow.If I miss snow that much I will venture up Mauna Kea.
The activists have long predicted that one of the terrible consequences of CAGW would be wholescale migration to pleasanter climes. Seems they have been right all along. Just got the direction wrong.
Thanks, Anthony. Good information.
The GFS 2m temperature anomaly is forecasting another 102 hours of cold for the NY-Boston area.
See http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_ntham/ANOM2m_f00_ntham.html
Yeah it’s been cold this season in Perth Australia too. Only hit 43C or 109.4F once this season so far. Think I’ll go down the beach whilst I still can. I blame global warming of course. 40 consecutive days of it not reaching 40C just isn’t natural!
Blame them painting the Stevenson Screens with white paint instead of white wash. The world is actually getting colder, but the white paint on the screens is giving a one degree C extra punch. That is true, is it not, Anthony?
This news clip refers to the 1978 storm:
http://youtu.be/wML2V6crNc0
:->
The lizzard of 78 didn’t hit Cincinatti.
[Good. No lizards fell on Cincinnati in ’78. (How about falling turkeys a few days before Thanksgiving? ) 8<) .mod]
As God is my witness I thought they could fly…..
I think Les now heads up the the present day “The Weather Channel”.
Dave Toleris beat all of them by 24 hours.
At 4:38 PM on 25 January, philjourdan observed:
He would. I’ve known Toleris for more than thirty years now, and he was a good meteorologist even as an undergraduate. Back then, he was actually trying to put together a non-computer (print-on-paper exclusively) heuristic hurricane simulation “game” suitable for non-meteorologists to use in examining these phenomena.
IN these parts, he is the only source we go to when the weather threatens.
this is one of the reasons i still live in Lost Angels, #Failifornia…
it was 80+ here today.
%-)
Wow .. Up to (there they go again with that ‘up to’) 3 feet of snow .. I’m really trying to be impressed .. I got through the Snowvember event with just 3′, while a few miles south of me they got a bit more at around 5′ of snow, while a neighboring town got 7′ of snow .. and the schools haven’t yet used up their “snow days” .. so excuse me while I don’t get all that excited .. but you can bet that the networks, based out of NYC, will really hyperventilate over their coverage.
I guess people have to get excited about something.
Yeah Leon. I saw a news report in Vermont last year that said “this area may get 6-18 inches.” Really, how do they narrow thing down that precisely.
“In the mid-latitudes, there is a widespread increase in the frequency of very heavy precipitation during the past 50 — 100 years;
Both model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere and the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations indicate an increasing probability of heavy precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States.”
http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/ghegerl/Groisman_et_al_…s_intensity.pdf
That’s from 2004 and its observations have been further reinforced over the last decade. There are many scholarly papers around this, but you don’t need to be a scientist, the physical basis for the phenomenon is quite simple. For those confused, rest assured that as temps continue to rise, more precipitation will start to fall as rain, and heavy snowfalls will start to diminish again.
the resource at your linked URL “does not exist”
what do you mean 50-100 years? 50 years or 100 years or some number between 50 & 100?
I bet you didn’t really mean more greenhouses in the sky.
how can past data indicate a future probability? Surely, that’s interpretation’s job?
If you’re making a prediction, then it’s not a probability; it’s increased precipitation. The probability just describes the state of anticipation.
So, heavy snowfalls have been increasing for (maybe)100 years (along with heavy rainfalls) but, reassuringly, they will start to diminish soon. This is clear from reinforced observations.
You’re on your own there Mebbe. Most WUWT regulars have given up on SHF.
GeeJam,
But it’s fun sometimes playing Whack-A-Mole. My turn!
SHF, what you’re doing is cherry-picking one particular location. Things change, you know.
Step back and look at the big picture: global temps have fluctuated an amazingly tiny 0.7ºC — over a century and a half! You and the alarmist gang are trying to make that into a big deal.
Won’t work. Nothing unusual is happening. We’ve seen it all before, and to a much greater degree.
Try being rational. Put yourself in the shoes of skeptics, and pretend you are unbiased, and emotionally disconnected from the climate scare… if you can.
Now, try to explain to one of the other alarmists that a 0.7º wiggle is something to go all Chicken Licken about.
See?
The paper addresses the whole planet. If the link doesn’t work, google it, it’s easy to find.
Also good on ya for not letting me get away with it. One of these days I really will get bored and leave. But I occasionally learn things here.
So less drought or more drought? Used to be more drought, then that didnt happen, became more precip. Goodness whats life like constantly chasing your tails? I just had to say it.
It’s a non-event down here in the DC metro area in terms of frozen precip -we’re mainly getting rain and maybe an inch or two of snow at the tail end of this storm.
Wait till next weekend. 😉
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/810111925702734
Yawn
in mid maine supposed to get 24 inches or so.
no biggie.
the issue is we are supposed ot get 55-60 mph winds near the end and in wooded areas that always means no power.
generator/cars/tractor all gassed up
[good prep’s. Stay safe. .mod]
It is a temptation, in the context of “CAGW”, to downplay this a bit by comparing it to past blizzards.
But whether this one has 55-60 mph winds compared to a past one that might have had 56-61 mph winds is small comfort to those that are in it.
As “.mod” said, stay safe.
Now, back to the context of “CAGW”, where’s the “W”?
(And please don’t quote Dennis Quaid.8-)
I try to learn from my mistakes mod 🙂
had one gen fail on me before so I actually have 2 here, one spare only needs 30 min of hookup wiring to run me. it uses different connections than my main one and I am not a fan of adapter pigtails to backfeed.
turn off incoming power, turn off main at house breaker then backfeed from well ventilated outbuilding 40 feet away with a 7500 normal-9000 burst unit.
keeps the well running and the furnace on.
[Been there, run that. Stay safe. .mod]
I supervise 26 hired plows in Cambridge Ma. Every time I hear that we are going to get 24 inches, we only end up with 8 or so.
I will believe it when I see it. 40 hours of overtime would be nice though …….
White Gold.
Tommy B
You guys always did me right on Plantation to Main St to the Bridge. Thanks.
honestly I would be surprised to see the actual total to hit 22 here (mid maine I expect 15 personally but….) however I have fields on one side of me so my drifts in a 12″ storm are usually 22″ so who knows.
the drifts going to be the issue here I expect.
nothing but a thing in the grand scheme of it and we’ve been pretty lucky this winter so far.
I guess NYC’s de Blasio almost got it right … it’s an hysterical snow coming their way .. and all the network news readers will display common hysterical touches .. and come ground hog day, the 49th big game will be a memory as will all the hysterics as the PA big rat predicts six more weeks of winter.
Growing up on a farm in central Wisconsin during the late 50s, 60s, and 70s, we learned by hard experience to always prepare for a long, harsh winter. Nearly everything we did from spring’s first snow melt to fall’s first snow flurries was focused by preparations for the next winter.
Planting and harvesting oats, corn, and baled alfalfa for winter animal feed, as well as baled oats straw and marsh hay for winter bedding.
Planting, harvesting, and preserving a wide variety and volume of fruits and vegetables from our family gardens. Preserving meant canning, pickling, blanching and freezing, or drying and storing the canned goods on shelves in the basement. Dried goods were stored in sacks and kept in the basement close enough to the wood furnace to keep them dry. Squash, apples, and root crops were stored in the old ‘ice house’ cellar, under the milk house attached to the barn.
Raising and fattening hogs and steers for fall sale… and butchering for our family’s freezers.
Felling inferior, diseased, or dead trees in the late winter woods followed by cutting, splitting, and stacking the wood to dry sufficiently over the summer for the following winters use in our home’s wood furnace.
Those who have shared this childhood and ‘coming of age’ experience on northern tier farms know far better than any boy scout the true meaning of Be Prepared! Winter is coming……
Thanks for that, our family although not on you scale do it every year!
Mac,
Yesterday on some site they had a list of 10 things they figured the readers did not know how to do. You just listed many of them. I can do, and have done, 9 out of the 10. I took a pass on being able to “make lace” – crochet doilies. While my mother did show me how, and I did one, I preferred an ax and a chainsaw.
Stay warm.
Ah back to fighting with nature. That’s how I remember it. Sure glad I don’t have to do that anymore. Did you ever try to imagine how much harder it would have been without the gasoline for the chainsaws and trucks to cut and haul the wood. All metal and glass used to make those tools had to be manufactured in fossel fueled hungry industry. The metal ore had to be doug out of the ground using fossel fueled machines. Mac, I’m not trying to belittle your early life. I would love to figure out how to live without relying on someone else’s work. To do that without the simpelist of metal tools would require us to live like the early natives. I hope no one in the future will have to live that way again.
… which is why we should relabel it “climax change.”
I can’t wait to see the CAGW apologists spin this record snow as further “irrefutable” evidence of Glooooobal Waaaarming….
You know they will…
You’ll get the ol’ weather isn’t climate, GW is causing more and stronger Arctic Vortices, GW is causing more ocean evaporation, which is causing more snow, snowstorms will eventually disappear–just you wait! and wait and wait…., ad nauseam…
How much longer will this CAGW psudo-science be take seriously? It’s becoming such a joke.
Where is Dr. Viner when you need him?… I thought snow was a thing of the past?
Not so much…
The main reason I couldn’t get the F out of New England fast enough in 2012.
Was 70ºF here in Tucson today. Love it.
Snow, and also the black flies, keeps the population of New England down, as people who come for the area’s charm learn it isn’t always so charming.
My worry now is that they have closed one too many if New England’s power plants, due to a ding-bat fear of “carbon”. It is one thing to reduce population because people emigrate. It is quite another to freeze them.
I was in NYC in 2006 for the 26″ dump. Loved it.
MCourtney — Oh, SURE — no ball tampering in cricket!
BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA….sorry. You might be a Pakistan supporter.