Guest essay by Eric Worrall-
In 2013, NASA decided to take time out from creating spectacularly useless climate models, and reactivated their Near-Earth Object Wide-field Survey Explorer programme. The result is moderately terrifying – 8 previously unknown near Earth asteroids with catastrophic impact potential have been discovered, along with a host of smaller bodies which have the potential to wipe out a city.
According to The Register;
In December 2013, NASA re-activated the Near-Earth Object Wide-field Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) and in the twelve months since the project discovered three new comets and 40 previously-unknown near-earth objects, eight of which have Earth-bonking potential.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/16/ninety_new_doom_asteroids_found_in_2014/
The JPL website contains more information about the discoveries of various space survey projects;
“WISE was launched into a low-Earth orbit in December 2009, and surveyed the full sky in four infrared wavelength bands (3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 µm) with a 40 cm (16 in) diameter infrared telescope until the frozen hydrogen cooling the telescope was depleted in September 2010. Throughout this time, NEOWISE searched the WISE data for moving objects. Starting in October 2010, the mission was renamed NEOWISE, and the survey continued for an additional four months using the two shortest wavelength detectors. The spacecraft was placed into hibernation in February 2011, after completing its search of the inner solar system.
Recently, NEOWISE has been brought out of hibernation to learn more about the population of near-Earth objects and comets that could pose an impact hazard to the Earth. A three-year survey in the 3.4 and 4.6 µm infrared bands began in December 2013 in which NEOWISE will rapidly characterize near-Earth objects (NEOs) and obtain accurate measurements of their diameters and albedos (how much light an object reflects). NEOWISE is equally sensitive to both light-colored asteroids and the optically dark objects that are difficult for ground-based observers to discover and characterize. Just six days after the restart of the survey, NEOWISE discovered its first potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid, 2013 YP139.
The JPL data table is a little tricky to read, but if I’ve understood it correctly, you take the “H” value (absolute magnitude – a measure of “brightness”) from the asteroid table http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Dangerous.html , and look up that value in the diameter conversion chart, to get a range of possible diameters http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Sizes.html . The diameter estimate is a range, because the size of the asteroid is not the only factor which affects the magnitude / brightness of the object.
YP139 has a “H” value of 21.6, which corresponds to a possible diameter of 130 – 300 metres.
To put this into perspective, the Chelyabinsk meteor which caused a 500 kiloton explosion over Russia in 2013 was estimated to be around 20 metres in diameter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor A 300 metre object has the potential to cause (300 ^ 3 / 20 ^ 3) * 500 kilotons = 1.6 Gigaton explosion. An explosion of this magnitude, especially an ocean strike, could create gigantic Tsunamis, and would severely disrupt the global climate for several years, possibly longer.
Its nice to know that NASA occasionally takes a break from climate bothering, long enough to do something space related, but I’m mildly horrified that a project this important appears to be so far down the list of priorities, that the project was mothballed for a year while the survey satellite stood waiting for a refuel. Granted that a major Asteroid strike is a low probability event, but the consequences are potentially catastrophic – a big ocean strike could kill millions, maybe even billions of people.
As the Chelyabinsk wakeup call demonstrated, the risk of a damaging meteor impact is not a possibility which should be neglected.
Addendum- For the record, there are currently 1533 potentially hazardous near Earth Asteroids -Anthony
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Asteroids?
We’re doomed.
NASA has the Torino Scale for assessing the seriousness of an asteroid strike . The scale is One ( No hazard- The likelihood of a collision is zero etc.) through to Ten ( Certain collisions – Collision capable of causing a global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilisation as we know it etc.) . I do not know how many of the possible asteroid strikes have been given an assessment on the Torino scale.
. A Torino scale Ten event would cause a distinct decline of interest in CAGW.
…eight of which have Earth-bonking potential.
Haha.
verb
gerund or present participle: bonking
1.
hit (someone or something).
“he bonked his head on the plane’s low bulkhead”
2.
British
have sexual intercourse.
“the young couple bonking upstairs”
Only a matter of time before the heating Gaia, expands enough to go out and grab these asteroids
How many cRR Kampens does such an asteroid carry?
I made a real honest to goodness asteroid calculator, converts size and speed into equivalent large atomic bombs.
Pretty cool stuff, you can download the entire spreadsheet too, and change the parameters.
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2014/01/another-asteroid-enters-earth-with-no.html
Updated asteroid list, 1-26-2015 will have energy of 6828 large atomic bombs, just hope it doesn’t bounce off something else and change course.
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2015/01/updated-january-asteroid-risk-and.html
You can get the free asteroid calculator here too
How ironic. Funny when you think how Immanuel Velikovsky was ridiculed back in the 1950s for suggesting such a thing was not only possible, but that it had almost happened within recorded history. The “consensus” opinion of infallible science at the time held that planet earth was a safe haven, or at the most, had experienced such catastrophic events only in its remote and distant past. Odd how things change.
“Addendum- For the record, there are currently 1533 potentially hazardous near Earth Asteroids -Anthony”
That figure has just gone up by 3 – there are now 1536 potentially hazardous asteroids. Possibly caused by either global warming or else climate change
Not all meteoroids striking Earth hold the same risk. An object entering the atmosphere at high speed has to penetrate through about 10 kilograms worth of air, and this slows it down. (Recall atmospheric pressure will support a vertical column of water about 10 meters high.) Roughly speaking, an object must have more mass than this to strike the surface at significant velocity (i.e., well above terminal velocity). But such objects also have quite different strengths and densities. An iron meteorite, with a density of 7-8 g/cm^3, would not have to be large to qualify. In contrast, the Chelyabinsk object contained water and significant porosity and possessed a density not much above two. Such objects often break into pieces during passage (as this one did), which significantly lessens their ability to produce damage at the surface.
Above, 10 kg should be 10 kg/cm^2 for column density.
The Rocks of Damocles, essay by Isaac Asimov from around 40 years ago? Guy knew a lot of stuff. I used it as a source for a short talk in 1975. If we can spend hundreds of billions of dollars/pounds (whatever) on warfare and mutual killing, does that indicate that we have the capacity to set up the necessary apparatus to protect humanity from such a possibility, or that we’re too preoccupied with the killing, destruction and exploitation in the here and now, to be bothered with that kind of insurance?? Answers on the back of a stamp please . .
Reblogged this on Joe's Notepad and commented:
Although climate isn’t a problem to be “pushed aside” … near-Earth objects pose an INSTANT risk of catastrophic proportions, and should be monitored at all times, especially by NASA.