Bigger problems than global warming – NASA discovers 8 new dangerous near Earth asteroids

Guest essay by Eric Worrall-

chelyabinsk-meteor
The Chelyabinsk meteor, possibly caused by a near Earth Asteroid

In 2013, NASA decided to take time out from creating spectacularly useless climate models, and reactivated their Near-Earth Object Wide-field Survey Explorer programme. The result is moderately terrifying – 8 previously unknown near Earth asteroids with catastrophic impact potential have been discovered, along with a host of smaller bodies which have the potential to wipe out a city.

According to The Register;

In December 2013, NASA re-activated the Near-Earth Object Wide-field Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) and in the twelve months since the project discovered three new comets and 40 previously-unknown near-earth objects, eight of which have Earth-bonking potential.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/16/ninety_new_doom_asteroids_found_in_2014/

The JPL website contains more information about the discoveries of various space survey projects;

“WISE was launched into a low-Earth orbit in December 2009, and surveyed the full sky in four infrared wavelength bands (3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 µm) with a 40 cm (16 in) diameter infrared telescope until the frozen hydrogen cooling the telescope was depleted in September 2010. Throughout this time, NEOWISE searched the WISE data for moving objects. Starting in October 2010, the mission was renamed NEOWISE, and the survey continued for an additional four months using the two shortest wavelength detectors. The spacecraft was placed into hibernation in February 2011, after completing its search of the inner solar system.

Recently, NEOWISE has been brought out of hibernation to learn more about the population of near-Earth objects and comets that could pose an impact hazard to the Earth. A three-year survey in the 3.4 and 4.6 µm infrared bands began in December 2013 in which NEOWISE will rapidly characterize near-Earth objects (NEOs) and obtain accurate measurements of their diameters and albedos (how much light an object reflects). NEOWISE is equally sensitive to both light-colored asteroids and the optically dark objects that are difficult for ground-based observers to discover and characterize. Just six days after the restart of the survey, NEOWISE discovered its first potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid, 2013 YP139.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/neowise.html

The JPL data table is a little tricky to read, but if I’ve understood it correctly, you take the “H” value (absolute magnitude – a measure of “brightness”) from the asteroid table http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Dangerous.html , and look up that value in the diameter conversion chart, to get a range of possible diameters http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Sizes.html . The diameter estimate is a range, because the size of the asteroid is not the only factor which affects the magnitude / brightness of the object.

YP139 has a “H” value of 21.6, which corresponds to a possible diameter of 130 – 300 metres.

To put this into perspective, the Chelyabinsk meteor which caused a 500 kiloton explosion over Russia in 2013 was estimated to be around 20 metres in diameter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor A 300 metre object has the potential to cause (300 ^ 3 / 20 ^ 3) * 500 kilotons = 1.6 Gigaton explosion. An explosion of this magnitude, especially an ocean strike, could create gigantic Tsunamis, and would severely disrupt the global climate for several years, possibly longer.

Its nice to know that NASA occasionally takes a break from climate bothering, long enough to do something space related, but I’m mildly horrified that a project this important appears to be so far down the list of priorities, that the project was mothballed for a year while the survey satellite stood waiting for a refuel. Granted that a major Asteroid strike is a low probability event, but the consequences are potentially catastrophic – a big ocean strike could kill millions, maybe even billions of people.

As the Chelyabinsk wakeup call demonstrated, the risk of a damaging meteor impact is not a possibility which should be neglected.


 

Addendum- For the record, there are currently 1533 potentially hazardous near Earth Asteroids -Anthony

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January 19, 2015 4:07 am

Chelyabinsk was the last time a significant hit occurred. Given the lack of reporting capabilities before the 20th century (much of the oceans would not have been noted except anecdotally), I wonder the frequency of rocks of that size entering the atmosphere. They are not planet killers, but they do tend to wilt the Sunflowers.

Paul
Reply to  philjourdan
January 19, 2015 11:59 am

“Chelyabinsk was the last time a significant hit occurred.”
Wasn’t there a suspected meteorite impact crater in East Antarctica?
How did that sneak in? Seems something that big should have made a big boom?

Reply to  Paul
January 20, 2015 4:43 am

I saw that (thanks to those who did the leg work) after I posted my comment. From what I have read, it may have been as big.

bonanzapilot
Reply to  Paul
January 20, 2015 8:15 am

And just last year there was this, on the military base just west of the airport in Managua. 😉
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managua_event

emsnews
Reply to  philjourdan
January 19, 2015 1:02 pm

Raptor dinosaurs should be the ones setting NASA’s objectives, not humans.

Reply to  emsnews
January 20, 2015 8:17 am

Wait, what? Was that a Saint’s Row IV reference?

Old Bloke
January 19, 2015 4:13 am

“near-Earth objects (NEOs) and obtain accurate measurements of their diameters and albedos (how much light an object reflects).”
Are albedos like libidos? I put out more light as libido increases though I don’t think it would blow a 2 amp fuse. Good to see that NASA is doing something useful.

George Tetley
January 19, 2015 4:16 am

Hibernation ?
attention NASA this is a wake-up call for Buck Rogers, Hello anyone out there , Buck, answer us, please ?

Reply to  George Tetley
January 19, 2015 4:51 am

“Biggybiggybiggy hi there Buck”

JohnB
Reply to  wickedwenchfan
January 19, 2015 6:42 am

You two talk to Buck. I’ll debrief Wilma.

Paul
Reply to  wickedwenchfan
January 19, 2015 12:01 pm

“I’ll debrief Wilma.”
Had to look that one up, good call on your part!

Julian
January 19, 2015 4:16 am

I agree the Earth is being struck by debris all the time. The velocities involved in these collisions means the objects don’t have to be that big to cause some serious damage with the caveat of surviving entry into the Earth’s atmosphere of course.

Reply to  Julian
January 19, 2015 8:49 am

The problem is air bursts, not ground impact. That research came out of the Jupiter impacts and Tunguska and the recent Russian meteor.

bonanzapilot
Reply to  sunshinehours1
January 19, 2015 10:28 am

I’ve always been curious about air bursts. It seems to me the center would be maintained at a relatively stable and low temperature by ablative cooling, similar to the burning of the heat shield on the Apollo capsules. I’m obviously wrong about it. Anyone know why?

AP
Reply to  sunshinehours1
January 19, 2015 4:23 pm

Insulation?
Those heat shields are designed of insulative materials such as cork

gbaikie
Reply to  sunshinehours1
January 19, 2015 6:11 pm

–I’ve always been curious about air bursts. It seems to me the center would be maintained at a relatively stable and low temperature by ablative cooling, similar to the burning of the heat shield on the Apollo capsules. I’m obviously wrong about it. Anyone know why?–
Well rocks hit earth faster than Apollo. Or for rocks to hit Earth at same velocity as Apollo
the rocks would need to start out within Earth-Moon system [which is possible- but very rare].
Instead what rocks are doing is encountering a Earth in a orbit around the sun, and Earth orbital
velocity is 29.8 km/sec. As a comparison Earth escape velocity is 11.18 km/sec. Or nothing within Earth-moon system will be going faster than 11 km/sec in terms hitting earth.
So briefly the average impact speed of asteroids which have orbits near Earth [or not comets] is
around 20 km/sec. Or twice velocity of Apollo Command Module hitting Earth. And with comets is in neighborhood of 40 km/sec.
Or another way to say this is that the gravity well of Earth is not really involved with rocks hitting Earth, rather Earth is like moving target in a gun range [one can almost ignore Earth’s gravity and it’s two very high velocity object intersecting each other- with tens of thousands of these objects which at some point in their year which is crossing earth’s orbital path].
So rocks are going at speed which Apollo capsule could not survive. Second capsules are aimed so they intersect Earth’s atmosphere at about 10 degree angle [from a horizontal plane], which allow the gee load not to be as severe [and for it not to get as hot- or get warm for longer duration]. So if Apollo approach Earth at steeper angle the gee forces it would resemble a car accident. Or it would kill the crew- btw, nukes can survive such gee loads and do have a steeper re-entry.
So rocks have far higher velocity, are far more massive, and not designed to withstand high gees.
And the air burst is where the rock deforms/breaks due to gee loads and become a bigger cross section and in the denser atmosphere and the atmosphere acts more a wall than air- or it violently explodes.
And bigger rock [say 100 meters] can essential ignore the atmosphere as they far greater mass
and need surface like the ground or ocean to stop them [and explode at that point].
So whether air burst or surface strike one dealing with explosion similar to nuclear weapon.

bonanzapilot
Reply to  sunshinehours1
January 20, 2015 7:23 am

Thank you for that most excellent explanation!

January 19, 2015 4:19 am

Some years ago I saw a youtube video- someone was filming around dusk, and in the film, something bright and looking fairly Large, could be seen streaking along the sky for a few moments, before it apparently BOUNCED off the atmosphere.
I really do think there is more of a threat from space, than there is from CO2.

Patrick.
Reply to  Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
January 19, 2015 4:50 am

I think the one you are talking about was filmed in the 70’s or 80’s on a beach. Yeah, if it is the same one, I recall that being shown on TV.

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Reply to  Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
January 19, 2015 5:15 am

I remember this in the 1970s…look at the speed of it!

and this

Reply to  The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
January 19, 2015 10:18 am

Meteor Hits Russia Feb 15, 2013

Feb 15,2013 – A “small” meteorite streaked through the skies above Russia’s Urals region. The blast, equivalent to 300,000 tons of TNT, shattered windows, damaged more than 3,000 building and injured over 1,000 people.

Brad Rich
Reply to  The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
January 21, 2015 7:45 am

I witnessed the Teton Fireball in August 1972. NASA has a tail on several NEOs but they can’t predict all of them. Some asteroids might not be in orbit, headed in a collision course from parts unknown in the galaxy. They use the known asteroids to keep the funding coming, along with the threat of the unknown. That’s their job, ambulance chasers at NASA/GISS/NOAA,

Reply to  Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
January 19, 2015 9:53 pm

It didn’t bounce, it was merely going fast enough to maintain escape velocity during its brief visit.

D.J. Hawkins
Reply to  Ric Werme
January 20, 2015 1:13 pm

The object under discussion may not have “bounced”, but it can happen if the trajectory is at a sufficiently shallow angle. For manned vehicles there is a window for proper angle of reentry; too shallow, say hello to Mars; too steep and they can name the impact crater after you.

January 19, 2015 4:19 am

Granted that a major Asteroid strike is a low probability event, but the consequences are potentially catastrophic – a big ocean strike could kill millions, maybe even billions of people.

Low Probability and High Impact… so what to do?
It depends on the cost of mitigation.
Er… what mitigation? Send Bruce Willis up on a space shuttle.?
It’s interesting but not practical.

A C Osborn
Reply to  M Courtney
January 19, 2015 4:32 am

That should say “It’s interesting but not practical at the moment”.
Where there is the will there is a way.
Landing a craft on a Comet has already been achieved, (not by the USA), but planning is required well ahead of it becoming dangerously close to the Earth.

Reply to  A C Osborn
January 19, 2015 1:46 pm

Yes, you are right.
I was in a negative mood this morning after a 2 and half hour commute.
We could do it if we tried. (At least us Europeans, ahem).
But it still depends on the cost of mitigation.

tty
Reply to  M Courtney
January 19, 2015 5:14 am

Deflecting a small asteroid is perfectly possible, even with existing technology, provided it is discovered early enough.
There is even (at least) two possible techniques. Using ion-powered “gravity-tug” spacecraft. Safe and certain but quite slow. And using small nuclear charges to ablate one side of the asteroid and deflecting it by recoil. Fast but messy and with a distinct risk that the asteroid would break up.
Remember that the maximun distance a potentialy Earth-impacting bodies would ever need to be deflected is c. 6500 km, and usually a lot less. if you do it ten years in advance that requires a delta-vee of about 21 mm/s (or about 0.8 inches/second)

Julian Flood
Reply to  tty
January 19, 2015 9:01 am

There’s an attempt to address this problem in one of my kindle short story collections — Hittile — but it was really just an excuse to run through a few drive options., pulse nuke, steam rocket and laser parachute. You sprint out using a series of nukes behind a pusher pate and use the kinetic energy — much more energy than a single bomb could produce — to smash the threat to gravel.
I enjoyed it. Couldn’t sell it though.
JF

old44
Reply to  tty
January 19, 2015 3:06 pm

Ion-powered “gravity-tug. Great idea, I will just nip down to Kmart and buy one.

RayG
Reply to  tty
January 19, 2015 5:26 pm

@Julian Flood, 9:01 AM The pulsed nuclear powered spacecraft was Project Orion, an ARPA/NASA project from early ’60s. See http://www.lepp.cornell.edu/~seb/celestia/orion/

Expat
Reply to  tty
January 19, 2015 7:20 pm

Hit it with a 20 megaton nuke and all of the mass would be delta-veed big time. An impacting mass has to hit a very tiny keyhole to hit the Earth.
Like blowing up a conventional bomb 10 miles about it’s target, not much shrapnel would actually hit the target..
A second and third strike would handle any mass still on trajectory for Earth.
I’ve always thought immediately rejection of anything useful regarding nukes to be more political than scientific.

Joseph Murphy
Reply to  M Courtney
January 19, 2015 9:41 am

If we spot a large object headed for earth and have some time to think, I am sure a lot more things become practical. Also, I don’t like the vague, blanket statements on probability. A large impact is a near gaurantee. It is low probability for any given day.

lee
Reply to  Joseph Murphy
January 19, 2015 5:28 pm

Assume the position, Explore the inner self. 😉

Tom Billings
Reply to  M Courtney
January 22, 2015 8:14 pm

Mitigation must take place years ahead of collision for any sizable object. That means we have to be looking all around. At present, we cannot look at all close to the Sun. So, the Aten/Ra class asteroids come at us “out of the sun”, with a few hours notice, at best. To find these the needed years ahead of time, we require a facility looking outwards from nearer the Sun, to see the reflected visible and infrared signatures of these bodies. Then, we need equipment already in orbit at the L4 and L5 libration points to start moving towards an intercept. From there several techniques exist, from nuclear/X-ray flash bombs, to simple attraction by the gravitational mass of a large spacecraft, that will provide the Delta-V to make the body miss the Earth.

Admad
January 19, 2015 4:29 am

That is a stunningly beautiful image – where’s it from please (image credits)?

January 19, 2015 4:34 am

Not much point spending billions detecting them when we have zero abity to stop them and can’t predict where they will strike until it’s too late to evacuate. The space missions would still be cool, if NASA didn’t approach them as if here too the “science is settled”. We’ve got up close to four separate comets now and every one of them looks like a lump of rock, but rather than re evaluate the theories (especially in regards to E=MC2! E can be used to change M just as well as the reverse) they keep on with the “dirty snowball” theory.

Reply to  wickedwenchfan
January 19, 2015 5:33 am

I believe the ultimate idea is to be able to divert them if large, or break them if smaller or give time to get off the sea which has the highest probability of being ground zero. If you do detect them far enough away, you don’t have to move them by much. A million miles out (1.6million km) – not far in this business – a nudge of 1/4 of a degree would do the job (change its course to miss ~7,000km). The radius of the earth is ~6400km. Predicting where they would strike ultimately is also possible. Hey they predicted where they could put space vehicles into position to land in a small targeted area. I’m sure they would eventually put instrumentation on them to keep updating its trajectory. Re size and frequency NASA has a page:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/overview/fastfacts.html#.VL0DsC7QPQs
Scroll down to size and frequency. One the size of a car enters earth’s atmosphere every year and burns up, one the the size of a football field ~100m about every 2000 years, one big enough to threaten earth’s civilization occurs ~ every few million years (larger than a mile or more in diameter (~2km)). So civilization has never had to deal with one – it is a challenge for the future. Even though civilization’s worth threat comes from ideologue elitists. it IS worth doing.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
January 19, 2015 3:29 pm

Except, there is that nagging suspicion that a near miss sling shots the object off on a new trajectory. A trajectory with Earth as the primary barycentric coordinate for the object’s new orbit…
If they’re going to ‘nudge’ them; I’d be much happier that they ‘nudge’ the objects towards the giant planets or the sun. Or if they’re really really good at nudging, nudge the object into a concentric low orbit around the Earth so it can be mined.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  wickedwenchfan
January 19, 2015 1:26 pm

Not much point? Well, if it’s far enough away from impact, I’d say putting an extra few km between me and where it’s headed would be really, really nice. If it’s headed for the ocean, even an hour’s notice would allow coastal evacuations. Duh. NASA, do your 🂮🂾🃎🃞 job and cut out the climatastrophist propaganda.

Bill Marsh
Editor
January 19, 2015 4:36 am

Reading the article I was struck by this statement about the new mission, “… and space rocks that might one day be captured for transport closer to Earth.”
The article doesn’t seem to have any reference to this mission that I could find as to the purpose of capturing near earth rocks, but, the idea is intriguing. If you could capture an object big enough and park it in one of the Lagrange points, we cold hollow it out and use it as a permanent ‘space base’. Then again the thought of a 50 meter or larger sized object careening out of a Lagrange point and slamming into earth is disturbing, although it would make one heck of a weapon ;).

emsnews
Reply to  Bill Marsh
January 19, 2015 1:05 pm

Welcome to the L-5 Society. We tried and tried to interest everyone in space colonies and it ended up dead. Who will do this now? The US is too addled.

Reply to  emsnews
January 19, 2015 3:51 pm

Oh it’s still going to happen, but the original 1989 Integrated Space Plan of 1989 was waaay too optimistic with an L1 Earth Moon Libration Point Interplanetary Arrival – Departure Spaceport to become operational about now….
https://bendhyan.wordpress.com/2013/08/26/rockwell-now-boeing-1989-produced-plan-for-space-exploration-into-the-21st-century-2/

Reply to  emsnews
January 19, 2015 6:10 pm

I remember a book about L5 and space based solar energy collection/transmission to Earth. I bought a half a dozen copies and handed them out to members of congress back in the lat 1970s, total waste.
What is really needed is a REAL Truespace drive. Roman Candles will never work, too expensive and dangerous. pg

Auto
Reply to  emsnews
January 20, 2015 2:54 pm

emsnews
Thanks for this L5 Society mention (and the follow up bits this leads to)!
I – like everyone here, I guess – continue to live and learn.
Even our trolls seem to learn.
The Stanford Torus looks intriguing – although a little claustrophobic in its smaller forms.
Appreciated.
Auto

January 19, 2015 4:37 am

I think the explosive power of the Chelyabinsk meteor had been reanalyzed to be something like 330 kilotons.

Stephen Richards
Reply to  beng1
January 19, 2015 4:48 am

Still a guess based on damage and damage is a fickle thing. Building quality; height from ground, distance horizontally, brightness of object, speed of entry, temperature of atmosphere and so on.

1saveenergy
January 19, 2015 4:38 am

We need an Asteroid tax to pay for mitigation. I’ll look after the cash till it’s needed.
I know it’s a tough job but someone has to do it. (8<))

Paul
Reply to  1saveenergy
January 19, 2015 12:11 pm

Can we have conferences in exotic location to discuss the plans?
I’m in, just don’t mess with the Peruvian monuments.

Reply to  1saveenergy
January 19, 2015 3:35 pm

I’d be thrilled to be a member of your cash ‘watching’ team! I can log the near misses…
Wouldn’t we need a ‘big’ telescope to get an ‘eyes on’ confirmation?
The Hawaii volcanic chain has lots of tall mountains, we could locate the telescope on top of one.
I suppose we could also track CO2 as a backup to the official observatory… (Wouldn’t that set the cat amongst the CO2 pigeons?) ;>

RayG
Reply to  ATheoK
January 19, 2015 5:37 pm

An observatory will also be needed in the Southern Hemisphere. The Mendoza region is high and dry with great powder and steep chutes. I will be happy to be the project manager for the Mendoza Asteriod Spotting, Surveylance and Skiing Center.

Mariwarcwm
Reply to  1saveenergy
January 20, 2015 10:32 am

Heh, the same thought crossed my mind. Do they think that it’s time to get out of Climate Change and buy into Asteroids?

observa
January 19, 2015 4:43 am

I’ll see yer one planetary boundary and raise yer four!
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/technology/earth-at-risk-after-human-activity-crossed-four-of-nine-planetary-boundaries/story-fnjww4qb-1227189626960
Must be grants submission time again.

Scottish Sceptic
January 19, 2015 4:43 am

NASA discovers another 8 reasons (after Ozone scare, CO2 scare, global cooling scare and probably dozens of other such hoax scares) … for the gullible US taxpayer to fund them even more money.
They didn’t employ Hansen by mistake!

Scottish Sceptic
Reply to  Scottish Sceptic
January 19, 2015 4:47 am

Nor would the moon landing “conspiracy” be cited so frequently without it being the ideal way to attack anyone (i.e. republican) who got onto the scent and dared to question NASA’s integrity!

January 19, 2015 4:49 am

I think there is a better and less hysterical source for information about the risk of asteroid or meteor strikes – http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/index.html – I suggest you stick to commentary about climate projections.

AndyZ
Reply to  Bill Cameron
January 19, 2015 1:14 pm

My son (6) and I check the site regularly and play with the interactive diagrams. Its a cool site and yes, not very sensational 🙂

Golden
January 19, 2015 4:54 am

They probably see global warming alarmism as coming to an end. They have to diversify their portfolios for more funding. And who can watch asteroids better than NASA. Yes Liars make people cynical.

Bloke down the pub
January 19, 2015 4:54 am

And there’s still a strong possibility that, like the Chelyabinsk meteor, when something comes it will arrive unannounced.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
January 19, 2015 1:33 pm

Right now, yes. With proper planning and the right equipment, we’d have up to several days’ notice, enough for evacuation of the area or affected coasts.

exSSNcrew
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
January 20, 2015 2:25 pm

Evacuation of a major metropolitan area would take more than several days, even if the roads where all lanes-out-bound. Traffic bogs down when everyone is nice and calm, so imagine the situation with a half-km rock bearing down…

Editor
January 19, 2015 4:55 am

“Addendum- For the record, there are currently 1533 potentially hazardous near Earth Asteroids”
It would only take one of sufficient size to wipe out all higher forms of life on the planet. If the governments have money to waste on researching and combating the non-existent threat of AGW, which is only a gradual non-existent threat (apologies for the oxymoron) anyway, then why not spend that money on devising better detection and a strategy for dealing with an actual threat! I realise that the odds of such an event occurring are next to negligible but……

Reply to  andrewmharding
January 19, 2015 9:56 am

don’t give THEM ideas. “They” are already looking for the next biggy to convince us rubes that the only answer is to form a World Government and give them all our money.

Dodgy Geezer
January 19, 2015 4:58 am

…Granted that a major Asteroid strike is a low probability event…
I would guess that the probability is now about the same as the climate warming scare being correct.
Only difference is, the probability of an asteroid strike goes UP for every day one doesn’t happen, while the probability that Hansen, Mann et al are right goes DOWN…

tty
Reply to  Dodgy Geezer
January 19, 2015 5:19 am

“I would guess that the probability is now about the same as the climate warming scare being correct.”
Contrariwise. It is dead certain to happen. It has happened thousands of times in the past (while catastrophic global warming never has, as far as we can judge).

Mac the Knife
Reply to  tty
January 19, 2015 11:14 am

Spot On!

Auto
Reply to  tty
January 20, 2015 3:06 pm

Catastrophic global warming certainly has happened.
It was one factor (our ancestors were another) that wiped out much of the American megafauna 10-15 thousand years ago [and, yes, there probably were other factors, if of lesser weight].
Catastrophic Man-made global warming – ahh. I’ll have to ask the 8-ball on that!
Catastrophic Mann-made global warming – that has cost a shedload [PJ O’Rourke’s ‘more money than you can shake a stick at, plus the stick”] to tax payers, electricity consumers – and, worst, many millions – probably hundreds of millions – in the Third World, whose deprivation has been extended by a few watermelons seeking to be able to pay for (Note – not ‘EARN’) another house in another continent.
And, as noted, do be aware that another source of funding is soon going to be critically important for Watermelon Central.
Auto
[Were not those losses of large land animals over a very short period of time an example of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Fauning? .mod]

Steve from Rockwood
January 19, 2015 5:07 am

The Earth is in danger from inner planetary hemorrhoids (climate scientists) and outer planetary asteroids. Lucky we have all this grant money to keep these dangers in check.

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
January 19, 2015 5:10 am

We are overdue a decent-sized one. There was Tunguska, and another (I think in 1947). It’s always a matter of when, not if. People go about their lives in blissful ignorance of how a populated part of the world could be sent back to the Middle Ages in a second.

JohnB
Reply to  The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
January 19, 2015 7:07 am

South America in the 1930s IIRC Jim.
The bottom line is that with 2 Megaton grade strikes over land in the 20th Century, anyone who thinks they might be “rare” has rocks in their head. On the figures (granted a short baseline) we get a City Killer every 35 years or so, it’s only pure blind luck that we haven’t lost a city yet.
Water strikes are more dangerous but we might at least get some warning and evacuate some people from coastal cities. My nightmare is a strike in somewhere like the Mediterranean. Very, very bad.

MarkG
Reply to  JohnB
January 20, 2015 5:39 am

“On the figures (granted a short baseline) we get a City Killer every 35 years or so, it’s only pure blind luck that we haven’t lost a city yet.”
No, it’s the fact that cities make up a tiny fraction of the surface of the planet. We should expect to see hundreds or thousands of Tunguska-style events for every one that destroys a city.
As with ‘Global Warming’, doing anything about it today other than monitoring local space would be paying far more for insurance than the potential loss. In fifty years, when we can launch stuff into space for $10 a pound, maybe trying to deflect one would make sense.

Auto
Reply to  JohnB
January 20, 2015 3:09 pm

MarkG
+1
Auto

TerryS
January 19, 2015 5:13 am

Some seem to think that there is nothing we can do and we don’t have the technology to do anything.
You are wrong.
It is true that if we detect something that is going to hit in the next few years then there is little we can do, but beyond that we can.
The more time we have to act the less we have to do. You don’t have to obliterate the asteroid, you simply have to deflect it and this can be done by something as simple as changing the albedo on one side and letting the light from the Sun change its orbit.

Reply to  TerryS
January 20, 2015 10:22 am

So changing albedo will work when the object is tumbling?

Just an engineer
Reply to  TomB
January 20, 2015 10:59 am

Sorry TomB, didn’t see your post.

Just an engineer
Reply to  TerryS
January 20, 2015 10:57 am

Umm, I’m thinking they probably rotate.

January 19, 2015 5:25 am

Notwithstanding argument over exactly how big a bang any asteroid might make, its instructive to look at the magnitude of the largest H bomb detonations and what is in yer common or garden earthquake or volcanic eruption.
Lets assume 1GT
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale gives you the earthquake and some volcano data.
Valdiva 2.7 Gt. Not planet destroying at all. Death rate estimated in the 1-10,000 range, property damage between $1bn and $10bn in today’s money.
Krakatoa 200Mt..so in the ball park of an order of magnitude,. and not a planet destroying event, though caused a lot of death due to ‘years without summers’ etc.
Alongside those really the largest nuke ever to pop its clogs was the Tsar Bomba at a puny 59 megatons.
The more gloomy anti-nuclear sites posit around a total of 6 GT of nuclear weaponry extant worldwide.
Scenarios involving them all being detonated together in one place are essentially fantasy.
Few weapons have been developed to go larger than 1Mt per warhead – what’s the point?
The tsunami that messed with Japan in 2011 was 480 Mt estimated, on the sea bed and close to Japan. Extremely bad luck to get that combination.
In a similar vein, it would be extremely unfortunate for e.g. the main heavily populated/developed areas of the planet to get a big hot rock dropped on their heads. The east/west coasts of the USA,. Europe, or India/China would suffer greatly, but the most likely event is into or over wilderness or sea.
If you look at the megadeath scenarios it would have to be
– a bloody large rock
– more or less a direct hit or at least a good graze through the atmosphere
– happen in a very highly populated, or geologically sensitive, area.
In geological time of course such things have happened – a few times. In human history it’s hard to say though the general regard for comets as objects of ill-omen (and a meteorite looks a bit like a comet) does suggest it was not unknown. Great place for the tinfoil hatters to speculate.
Its probably worth spending a billion to avoid ten billion damage, but to try and avoid an Chicxulub type event?
Forget it. It would guarantee to destroy the world economically to build the technology to do it.
We all simply relocate to high ground, create a lot of tinned food, batten down the hatches, cross our fingers and hope there is something left. By random chance something would be.
Oddly enough IF catastrophic AGW were anything like an unrefuted hypothesis it would actually be a greater threat.
But of course its more or less been proved to be about as likley as a ‘nuclear winter’.
It suits too many people’s books to have doom and FUD about, for any rational estimates, but they are possible.
I suggest people do them.
We have nothing to fear but fear itself, by and large.

JohnB
Reply to  Leo Smith
January 19, 2015 7:28 am

Something to think on Leo. A meteor is not like a comet in a very important feature, it has no tail outside the atmosphere and therefore gives no warning.
Because of orbital physics and the fact that the comet tail always points away from the Sun an incoming comet is visible and you get some warning. but there’s a part of this that people don’t actually think about. If a comet hits us on the way in the head leads the tail but if it hits on the way out the tail leads the impact.
Imagine what that would look like to a primitive people. The comet has been in the sky for perhaps months growing brighter as it got closer and then it recedes, possibly even visible in the daytime sky until it nears the Sun. And then it comes back, faint at first but brighter and brighter every night. The tail growing longer and brighter until it cuts the sky in half, wavering like a giant serpent in the sky. Take a while to really think about it, imagine what it would look like, and then remember that all cultures on this planet have legends of great flying lizards or snakes who bring destruction.
No tinfoil needed at all.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  JohnB
January 19, 2015 12:23 pm

JohnB
Dinosaur fossils also explain the “dragon” legends and descriptions: They match all of the words, and (obviously) they match the writhing bone structure and skulls needed. A culture built on sword and hammer violence and daily butchering of livestock for food “knows” what to expect within an animal (bones, skulls, muscles, legs, wings, eyes, etc. So, evidence overhead (flying lights and visions) plus bones in the ground? What’s not to like about What’s Up With That?

Fred Harwood
January 19, 2015 5:32 am

Is this like “Oh, Look! A squirrel!”

observa
Reply to  Fred Harwood
January 19, 2015 5:48 am

More like “Oh, Look! A Unicorn in the shape of an Asteroid!”

commieBob
Reply to  Fred Harwood
January 19, 2015 9:45 am

Interesting coincidence.
Today’s xkcd

GeeJam
January 19, 2015 5:45 am

IPCC soon to become ‘Intergovernmental Pandemonium for Colliding Comet’.
CAGW is now ‘Catastrophic Asteroid Guzzles World’. Now that WILL be an inconvenient truth . . . .
If and when one strikes, NASA might immediately become ‘National . . . . Arghhhh . . . . Shit . . . . Asteroid!!!!
I’ll get my coat . . . .

Alberta Slim
Reply to  GeeJam
January 19, 2015 7:10 am

Your last line about the coat is the best……………….

Alx
January 19, 2015 5:57 am

Lets get the IPCC to issue a report on this asap. I imagine an asteroid would affect the climate and asteroid paths can be modeled after all.

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