A blast of cold Arctic air is likely to be plunging all the way to Mexico by New Years Day
Arctic air will move back into the central Plains, Great Lake States and Western U.S. this week. Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories and Wind Chill Advisories are in effect in many areas and more are expected.
From WeatherBell Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/549317691970834433/photo/1
add to that, freezing rain for Texas, snow in Arizona and New Mexico:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/549441059512524800/photo/1
Here is the temperature forecast:
![temp1[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/temp11.png?quality=75)
Source: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html
Snow is also expected in many areas:
Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities
As always, nothing says warming like cooling.
Can’t wait for more Orwellian spin.
Thanks, A. Good post.
But, of course, global warming is causing all this cold, obviously.
“But while studies predict that the heightened chance of icy winters may persist over the next few decades, beyond that rising temperatures will eventually overwhelm those cold bursts, and global warming will win out as advertized.”
From “Climate Strange”, Bryan Walsh, TIME, Dec. 29, 2014.
So much faith!
“…beyond that rising temperatures will eventually overwhelm those cold bursts, and global warming will win out as advertized.”
He says that like it’s a bad thing.
I cannot understand why warmists get so angry when you suggest that perhaps the climate is entering a cooling phase. You’d think they’d be happy to hear such good news. Instead, you get shouted at. I started following one of the Coursera courses recently. Some of the students started discussing AGW, even though the course wasn’t about that. Next thing you know, anyone who dared to mention the ‘pause’ or cooling, got verbally attacked, accused of working for oil companies, and labelled a denier. It was unbelievable, and a bit scary. I kept thinking that if these hysterical warmists were in a room with you, they’d lynch you.
BTW, I think Coursera is launching a course on AGW. I’m sure it will be very objective. 🙂
But according the Australia alarmists, sorry I mean “scientists”, the world is like to record it’s warmest year ever for 2014.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-shift-in-the-pacific-may-accelerate-global-warming-20141229-12f6dp.html
The Mayans have been known to make predictions studying the sun and astronomy. When their calendar ended, it did not mean the end of the world, but a transition, a new phase to something, maybe. I believe they knew much more than we do, and definitely knew about the sunspot cycles. The sun has reached solar minima, and that probably would have a cooling impact on planet earth. How bad it will get, we don’t know, but be prepared and stay safe.
jacob:
The Mayan calendar ended essentially when the ancient priest decided to stop cutting new icons in the rock – much like we do when a monthly calender stops at the bottom of the page, or a yearly calendar stops at the end of 12 pages. It is no more important in the grand scheme of things than “they ran out of space on the rock.” They did track Venus transitions – and their calender stopped after the 2nd Venus solar transition pair ended on 2012. Did they record sunspots – I have not seen anther evidence of that.
Based on the right turn taken by the sea ice extent at this time each year this is surely not a problem for 2014 alone. It seems to be as reliable as the monsoons.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png
“A bitter cold climatic system will plunge all the way through Dixie to ring in the New Year”
I don’t see the Sarc at the beginning of my comment.
I’m curious about what is happening in the rest of the northern hemisphere, particularly the pacific, near el nino conditions and the northern pacific high heat anamoly. And the arctic.
Dr Piers Corbyn has an interesting theory of jet stream control. In a nutshell as the sun goes quiet the jet stream becomes less circular and takes more drops towards the equator. So more polar cold comes down. If he’s correct (and his long term weather predictions are quite good) we could have a lot more of these until the sun wakes up.
Wool socks time!
Oh yea happy holidays to everyone. Stay safe and warm.
@TRM: also: crop failures…
General comment: I would love to see the maps of anomaly not on a Mercator projection, but on more accurately “per-area” projection. The place there the Antarctic seems colder is actually a fairly small surface, corresponding (assumedly) to a small atmospheric and ocean surface mass
Can be seen as a sudden increase of temperature in the upper stratosphere causing a wave and a decrease surface temperature.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_OND_NH_2014.gif
Sorry, but the temperature rise in the upper stratosphere increases the surface temperature. Low solar activity – an increase in temperature, high activity-decrease. Visible multi-day delay in the troposphere reaction.
Here in Finland where I live the temperatures range between -10 and -15 C (global warming, yeah!). It’s actually the first real winter we have had in years. Last year our “winter” lasted for about less than a week before it all melted away. This years winter is a nice change. And I do hope it gets colder, if not only to make these warmists more frustrated, heheh.
And of course our local authorities are reporting this as signs of AGW…
“Temperatures are forecast to drop as low as the middle 20s to near 30 degrees for a couple of hours in agricultural areas during Wednesday night and Thursday night in central and northern areas of the state and Thursday night into Friday night farther south. This will follow near-freezing lows during the first part of the week.”
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_12291453_hd20.jpg
Cool. The NWS forecast for San Diego Wednesday night:
I think that’s what people in San Diego moved to get away from.
When I introduced myself to John Coleman at the ICCC in Las Vegas last July at the first dinner, I mentioned I was from New Hampshire.
He immediately replied “I’m sorry.” He doesn’t like cold.
I suppose I can’t needle him back this week, I’ll be wearing my parka most of this week, it’ll get down to about 9F (-13C or so) New Year’s Eve here.
weather. Just weather.
It gets cold in the winter? Who knew?
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_12300928_hd27.jpg
When solar activity decreases the increased temperature in the stratosphere and after a few days, the temperature rise at the surface of the Arctic Circle.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2.png
Wave appears in the lower latitudes and cold air is pushed out to the south.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2014.gif
ren, so like, cool air and warm air trade places and the warm area gets cooler, and the cool area gets warmer. Why this is such a difficult concept for some here to grasp defies my comprehension. It’s almost as if folk don’t comprehend the difference between “global trends over half a century” and “in my backyard on Jan. 1, 2015 at 0:00 hours.”
Yes, the tide in the stratosphere is the cause of air exchange and increase the pressure over the the polar circle. This makes it inhibits the growth of ice.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.gif
ren,
Seeing the whole picture animated like that is a true thing of beauty. Too bad few here seem to be paying attention.
Brandon- You have no idea what people here comprehend, or if they are paying attention. Please stop with your hits on WUWT and the readers.
Alan Robertson,
B. Gates has picked the wrong side of the debate. There is nothing unusual or unprecedented happening, but he cannot admit that like any scientific skeptic would. He’s an alarmist, so he has to be like that. It protects his ego.
For more than thirty years scientists have been diligently searching for evidence showing a “fingerprint of AGW”. They have found exactly nothing. Everything observed is easily explained by natural climate variability.
But when some folks have staked out a position, and have taught their position to others, they cannot easily change course. The easiest way out for them is to dig in their heels, and argue incessantly.
That’s too bad, because a lot of them have good ideas they can contribute. But once someone decides on an answer, they begin to look for ‘evidence’ that supports their belief. They cherry-pick. But it is all confirmation bias.
Hey, it’s a new year! Maybe a few of the more intelligent warmists here will finally have the scales fall from their eyes on the road to Damacus, and realize that there is nothing unusual happening.
Because sometimes, as Yogi Berra says: You can observe a lot by just watching.
[But conversely: There are some people who, if they don’t already know, you can’t tell ’em.]
Yep, that is about all that’s left.
A more convincing message.
The only problem is, that once caught playing loose with the facts, nobody will ever believe you again.
Never.
Wanna try to manage my grasp of that thought ?
Alan Robertson,
I have a pretty good clue what people don’t comprehend, right from the very first comment: Two years in a row then. As a ‘polar vortex’ was blamed for the severe cold last time, what reason will be given this time?
That was meant to be a joke, right?
dbstealey,
Magic in other words.
You win the 2nd busted irony meter of 2015. I figgered you’d make it into the first 5.
We agree. I’ve learned a number of useful things from climate contrarians over the years. It’s really great to be asked questions I hadn’t thought of before. Very much part of why I’ve read this blog and others like it so much over the years.
How is it you can be so sure you’re immune to the same disease, DB?
lol! Magic? I guess that is all the alarmists have left.
Natural. As in the omnipotence of man has yet to be demonstrated.
Gates says:
Magic in other words.
No, dope. It’s throwaway lines like that that make you such a lightweight.
Being in a climate in which past parameters are not exceeded is a good thing, it’s not “magic”. Maybe it’s magic to you that we don’t have your predicted runaway global warming, but to rational skeptics natural variability is just Occam’s Razor updated. It is simply the most reasonable explanation, given what we observe.
As for your cherry-picking and confirmation bias, it’s due to your ego, which does not allow you to admit what everyone here knows: you were wrong about the global warming scare. The great Leo Tolstoy explains you and alarmists in general:
And I am always sensitive to my own wishful thinking. Everyone is susceptible to that, and it must be watched. You folks just don’t pay attention like we do.
Gusty winds accompanying the arctic outbreaks will produce much lower AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures. Because of this the air will be beyond painful, reaching dangerous and life-threatening levels in much of the Midwest and Northeast for those who spend a significant amount of time outdoors without proper protection.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_01011720_hd27.jpg
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f120.gif
dbstealey,
It’s true, I really don’t have your talent for zingers like that one. I’d like to think it’s that I don’t run out of substantive arguments all that often, but that’s probably just my ego talking, eh?
It must be cold in Hades today because I fully agree with you.
Ok then, explain the mechanisms driving the observed temperature rise since, oh 1850.
I’m more than just a bit amused that this sub-thread started with Alan Robertson telling me, “You have no idea what people here comprehend, or if they are paying attention,” now here you are purporting to be a mind-reader.
I’d sure like it if you could find a quote of me saying, “runaway global warming [scare]” … that way we could talk about my actual arguments, not your made-up rhetorical nonsense version.
Well that’s the most pernicious thing about confirmation bias … everyone is also susceptible to thinking that theirs is not as bad as everyone else’s. Now if you’re about done ineptly psychoanalyzing me via the Internet — for whatever strange reason you saw fit to do so — how about that parsimonious but detailed explanation for the temperature record over the past 160 or so years?
Snowing in Southern California, and not just on the mountain tops. That’s unusual. May be the coldest Rose Parade in 135 years. (Depends on whether it beats 1956.) 300 cars briefly stuck in treacherous mountain passes. (Those steep twisty mountain roads next to sheer cliffs are fun in the best of weather, but add a foot of snow and they get pretty hairy.) http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-san-bernardino-mountain-rescue-20141231-story.html
I remember the one year my grandmother took us to see it. We were visiting. I know this sounds bad, but it is better on TV.
That’s what a lot of us locals think too. 🙂
Check out the animation of arctic ice extents so far;
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.thumb.png
(You’ll have to click on it to see the animation)
Darn! won’t work now.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html
My solar based long range forecast was for Arctic outbreaks from around 10/11 Nov for ~2 weeks, and from 26/27 Dec for ~3 weeks. The next window for stronger Arctic outbreaks I have from just after mid March 2015 for ~3 weeks.
During the winter when it’s cold, that’s just weather. During the summer when it gets hot, well, that’s global warming. Unless it’s warming in the polar regions so the poor cold air has no where to go. So where does the cold air come from if it’s warming in the polar areas?