Arctic cold blast, freezing rain/snow expected for New Years Day

A blast of cold Arctic air is likely to be plunging all the way to Mexico by New Years Day

32f-probability-NOAAArctic air will move back into the central Plains, Great Lake States and Western U.S. this week. Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories and Wind Chill Advisories are in effect in many areas and more are expected.

From WeatherBell Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/549317691970834433/photo/1

add to that, freezing rain for Texas, snow in Arizona and New Mexico:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/549441059512524800/photo/1

Here is the temperature forecast:

temp1[1]Source: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html

Snow is also expected in many areas:

snow-probabilitySource: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities

 

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113 thoughts on “Arctic cold blast, freezing rain/snow expected for New Years Day

  1. Two years in a row then. As a ‘polar vortex’ was blamed for the severe cold last time, what reason will be given this time?

    • These winter blasts of arctic icy weather are always to due intrusions of the polar vortex into the mid-latitudes. These vortices are permanent (more or less) lows in the polar regions, but are normally confined to arctic latitudes above the ‘polar jet’ which divides the mid-latitudes and polar regions in separate Ferrer cells. However, wobbles (“Rossby waves”) develop in the polar jet, which cause loops of arctic air to protude into the mid-latitudes. This is not an unusual phenomenon.
      But if the polar regions are getting warmer (as claimed by the CAGW warmists due ‘Arctic Amplification’) then the intensity of the temperature gradients between the Arctic regions and mid-latitudes should decrease. So, the latest research claims that this will decrease the probability of these cold bombs.
      http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140615143834.htm

  2. Proof positive that the world is cooling. There was, by the way, also snow in my back garden this morning, and -20 C on the car thermometer! Keep those cold stories coming.

    • Really. You really think that will fly here. Few here would think a blast of cold air from a loopy jet stream over the continental US means the “world is cooling”.
      Interglacial climate happens as a result of topography and geography, combined with altitude, latitude, and longitude address interacting with oceanic/atmospheric weather producing systems bounded by temperature/precip extremes. Meandering weather patterns between those extremes is still weather, not a cooling climate. I don’t consider it being “the world is cooling” till the next ice age. Evidence of a cooling world climate is when you get frozen under tons of ice. But having a cold wind blow up your skirt? Not so much.

      • I have put away all my skirts, for now, as the cold is already here. -16 F tonight. But then, it is winter time so, much ado about nothing.

      • What about Little Ice Ages, Pamela. Was everything frozen under tons of ice during those periods? Just curious.

      • Pamela Said: “Interglacial climate happens as a result of topography and geography, combined with altitude, latitude, and longitude address interacting with oceanic/atmospheric weather producing systems bounded by temperature/precip extremes.”
        What is so special about Interglacial climate? Would it also be true that: Glacial climate happens as a result of topography and geography, combined with altitude, latitude, and longitude address interacting with oceanic/atmospheric weather producing systems bounded by temperature/precip extremes?
        Just curious. Thanks for your informative response! 8D

      • Very much my view of a warming climate.
        A few warm days or even years does not prove the CAGW hypothesis.

      • Pamela Gray says: “I don’t consider it being “the world is cooling” till the next ice age.”
        I suggest some definitions, for clarity:
        “Glaciologically, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in the northern and southern hemispheres.”
        Imbrie, J.; Imbrie, K.P (1979). Ice ages: solving the mystery
        An Ice Age is when continental glaciers advance over Canada, Northern USA, much of Europe, Russia and similar large areas of the Southern Hemisphere. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations decline to near-subsistence levels of plants – one of the next Ice Ages will be an extinction or near-extinction event – the end of all or most carbon-based life on Earth, dogs and cats living together, etc.
        Conclusion: We can both agree that an Ice Age involves significant global cooling. I further suggest that cold is bad and warm is good.
        A “Little Ice Age” is when average global temperatures cool about 1-2 degrees, the glowing season in Canada the USA, Europe and Russia shortens by several weeks on each end and the grain harvest significantly declines. The projected “Landscheidt-Eddy Minimum” is looking increasingly probable – it probably commenced with very weak SC 24 in January 2008 and SC25 , while too early to predict with accuracy, will probably be a dud as well. The previous Maunder (circa 1700) and Dalton (circa 1800) Minimums during the last “Little Ice Age” both included two consecutive very-weak Solar Cycles, and the loss of life, especially during the Maunder, was substantial – up to 30% of far-Northern populations perished due to hunger and cold.
        Conclusion: I suggest that a Little Ice Age involves significant global cooling, enough to cause a significant decline in the global grain harvest. In the absence of appropriate mitigative measures, significant food shortages, hunger and starvation are probable. A Little Ice Age is nothing to be sneezed at. Given the probable imminent timing of the next Little Ice Age, I suggest this event should not be dismissed but instead should be the focus of our attention. Mitigative measures are possible, but they do take time…
        As usual in these matters, I hope to be wrong.
        Happy New Year to all, Allan

    • I’ve heard that too, but I haven’t found the reasoning to support how open water of the Arctic Ocean in September of 2012 produces storms in Europe and cold in North America in January 2015.
      Mean in that chart is for 22 years. That’s about 60% of the available data. Are they allowed to keep the true mean hidden like that?
      Also, left a note on your latest on Tips & Notes, re: India.

      • The “Polar Bear Science” site has some graphs of ice-extent-during-the-Christmas-week that go back to 1971. They make you aware why the Satellite graphs that only go back to 1979 are preferred by some, because in the early 1970’s there was more open water to the north of the USA and Canada:
        http://polarbearscience.com/2014/12/26/polar-bear-habitat-more-arctic-sea-ice-in-canada-this-week-than-in-early-1970s/
        If there was that open water in the early 1970’s then there should be the same weather events caused by it back then that John Holdren imagines are caused by open water these days. However the really cold winters for the USA occurred in the late 1970’s, after the open-water-during-the-Christmas-week was gone.

      • Short term models, which are definitely better than long term. We can sorta predict weather 10 days out. Pretending that we can predict weather/climate 10 or 100 years out with models is problematic.

      • marque2
        “We can sorta predict weather 10 days out.”
        Maybe in Canada and points south – no reason to doubt you.
        However, here in the UK I still think Dame Julia’s £90 million silicon brain [we call it GIGO] still, even now, struggles to do better then [‘same as today’] more than a day and a half or two days out – perhaps three days when, as now, we have a near-stationary High [so no real wind, so the local bird-blenders are practically motionless – so no wrecked raptors, but no warming wattage either].
        But get a lively couple of systems colliding hereabouts, and they’ll struggle to tell you what you can see outside the window, let alone 24 hours ahead.
        Auto

      • For some reason the models did a very poor job of foreseeing the cold now afflicting Europe.
        Usually they do better, in a general way. If you try to beat them, you’ll find they are surprisingly good out to five days, (and better than I am by a long shot out to ten days.)
        The devil is in the details. That is why it is fun to compare the various models. When Dr. Ryan Maue reported the GFS model was forecasting a “Santabomb”, the European model had a low five-hundred miles further east taking over, while the Canadian model had both storms. All three saw the same general pattern, but where and when a storm blows up is a “minor detail”, unless you are on the road an hour from home.

      • I don’t think Dr. Maue issued a forecast, as much as he was reporting what the GFS computer model was saying. Nor did the GFS totally bomb, for a gale did form over the Great Lakes (with some lightning and thunder) and become fairly strong as it moved away northeast. However it wasn’t the super-storm the GFS was seeing early on.

    • Considering all of his / their successes the last few years it was only a matter of time until they missed one, don’t you think?

    • Yes, because weather forecasters almost never get things wrong, because it’s a perfect science. Right?

    • The biggest problem with that forecast was calling Cleveland the northeast. That and a Floridian not realizing the difference in impact of precipitation type. I had 1.33″ of rain and temperatures in the 30s. Would have been a nice snowstorm, but with the system to the west that doesn’t happen.
      Ryan has a lot to learn from Joe Bastardi about properly hyping winter storms. 🙂
      I didn’t pay attention to Ohio weather.

      • Hi Ric. I thought you might be interested to know that while the warmth didn’t get down into the valleys, it did touch the hilltops on Christmas morning. For example, while it was 38 in Keene to the west and 39 in Manchester to the east, at the Jaffrey airport between those places (up on a hill) it was 57.
        It was nearly sixty at my house, and was the warmest Christmas I can remember since 1965, when I ran around outside, as a barefoot boy playing with a toy helicopter, on Christmas morning. (I mention that so the usual suspects don’t use this year’s mildness as proof the world is warming.)
        It may not have been a Currier and Ives Chjristmas, but I can’t say I minded the mildness. I’m sure that, as the old-timers used to say when the weather was mild in the winter, “We’ll pay for this.”

    • I have to point out that first, I haven’t heard AW himself make a forecast, and second, thus far, The Weather Bell (I was sure it was Joe Bastardi’s forecast I read here at WUWT, but I can’t find the post to link) general forecast for the Winter in North America has been spot on….
      The folks at The Weather Bell are comfortably ahead of everyone else calling ’em so far.
      And as for missing one or two, I can only quote Robert A. Heinlein: “Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get.”
      You want perfect, talk to an alarmist with a GCM. Their models are always accurate: they always say what they’re programmed to say.

  3. “The coldest day looks to be New Year’s Eve where high temperatures may not make it into the 20s. Low temperatures will drop into the teens and perhaps even the single digits in the suburbs of Chicago.
    “Not only will the temperature be rather cold on New Year’s Eve, but gusty winds will make it feel much colder during the day and night,” said AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Tyler Roys.”
    Let’s see the oceans temperature anomalies. Clearly, the higher the temperature at North America follows to the constant air circulation.
    http://weather.gc.ca/data/saisons/images_loop/2014122900_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@sd_000.png
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f00.gif
    http://oi59.tinypic.com/rgz8up.jpg

  4. “Very Unusual Weather” the Weather Service calls it. “Potentially historic” for Loss Wages.
    ________________________________________
    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV SUN DEC 28 2014
    …VERY UNUSUAL WEATHER IN LAS VEGAS FOR NEW YEAR`S EVE AND DAY…
    NORMALLY SUNNY AND MILD LAS VEGAS IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE UNUSUAL AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WEATHER FOR THE NEW YEAR`S EVE INTO NEW YEAR`S DAY TIME PERIOD.
    A COLD AND SOMEWHAT MOIST STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEW YEAR`S DAY BRINGING A VARIETY OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO LAS VEGAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
    MANY TOURISTS WHO COME TO LAS VEGAS MAY BE UNPREPARED FOR THE TRUE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS THIS STORM COULD BRING WITH IT. TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BE DIFFICULT – IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE – ON AREA ROADS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW YEAR`S DAY.
    SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT IS VERY LIMITED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY ITSELF. PARKING ON ROADS PUTS YOUR VEHICLE AT RISK FOR BEING SLID INTO AND ALSO MAKES ACCESS ONTO STREETS HARDER FOR VEHICLES THAT NEED TO GET THROUGH.
    IN ADDITION…ANY SNOW…EVEN IF IT DOES NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH ACCUMULATION…WILL MAKE WALKWAYS AND SIDEWALKS VERY SLIPPERY. WEARING SHOES WITH GOOD TRACTION IS RECOMMENDED TO AVOID SLIP AND FALLS.
    EVEN IF SNOW IS LIMITED IN THE AMOUNT THAT FALLS…VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN LAS VEGAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ON NEW YEAR`S EVE DAY AND ON NEW YEAR`S DAY.
    ANYONE WHO PLANS TO BE OUTSIDE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR BEING EXPOSED TO NEAR FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. BRING LAYERS AND DRESS WARMLY.
    YOU CAN FOLLOW THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR UPDATES BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS (ALL LOWERCASE) OR LIKING US ON FACEBOOK OR FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSVEGAS. WE WILL BE USING THE HASHTAG #NEWYEARSSTORM FOR THIS EVENT ON TWITTER. IN ADDITION, YOU CAN ALSO FOLLOW LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES. BE PREPARED AND HAVE A SAFE NEW YEAR`S.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=vef&pil=SPS&sid=VEF&ver sion=0

    • Cities that rarely see snow will grind to a halt at the sight of the first snow flake. A coating of snow will cause hysteria, and if accumulation approaches an inch the churches fill with people promising to change their ways.

  5. Not to put too fine of a point on it, but….
    He’s guaranteed to be correct that New Year’s Day will be the coldest day of the year. It will also be the only day of the year, until the 2nd of January….

    • Hm. Here I was predicting it would be the hottest day of the year. In fact, I believe we’ll both be right.

  6. Attention Global leaders and UNFCCC: To conserve about 40% of fuel & thereby reduce carbon emissions, to control climate change and global warming, to prevent road crash deaths and save millions of people from pollution related diseases and to reduce 80% of traffic jams, to uplift the downtrodden and reduce economic inequalities etc. for the first time in the world, I POSSESS A WIPO APPROVED, NO-NONSENCE MIRACLE INVENTION. But, is there anybody in the world who can help me to dedicate this PANACEA to humankind? Please Mail to: *vthoorun.rcrv at gmail.com *

    • You may have to wait as Barry Obama is golfing in Hawaii with his Islamic terrorist buddy………… ;^D

    • I’ll give you a way to conserve maybe 5%. A simple campaign to get drivers to accelerate faster, anticipate stops and slowdowns to avoid using brakes, and use turn signals. And another for removing most stop signs (replacing with yields), adding lanes to roads, and increasing most speedlimits (or replacing them with “target speeds”).
      http://cumulativemodel.blogspot.com/2007/11/horn-day.html

      • Add to that one intelligent stop lights. The Germans have had “die Grüne Welle” – the green wave – for some time. So stop lights set up pulses of traffic that if they follow the speed limit (or speed advisories) will always get a green light on that route. Savings would be huge.

      • aaron
        Quite right.
        Add folk adding another layer or two of jumper/fleece/whatever indoors, and comfortable temperatures – and so the energy to maintain them – comes down.
        And you save money (at home: the boss does, when at work!) [but – hey, more money for bonuses and pay rises . . . . .]
        Auto

      • Our office is always too warm. Knocks me out. I do the head bob all morning.
        Most women won’t stand for it being cooler.

  7. Sort of irrelevant, OT, but does anyone in the Arctic ever bellyache about “continental America” air coming up to plague them?

    • Not quite, but in Canada we do complain about humidity coming up from the Gulf in the summer….
      I am actually looking forward to proper winter weather again in Ottawa – hanging around 0 is not nice as everything is very slippery with freezing and thawing cycles every day. Once we get stable snow below -10 then things settle down and we can enjoy it.

    • No we don’t complain, there is no one who will listen.
      North of 60 its two seasons, winter Oct to June.
      Summer June to September.
      Now when the arctic air does that beautiful loop(Jetstream) deep into the south, we usually have warmer than average weather, so as the USA gets a few feet of Glowball Warming I will bask in milder weather, as in -20s rather than -30s.
      Who knows it may even get warm enough to snow.
      Happy New Year.

  8. Here in Germany temperature went down from 10°C the previous weeks to -11°C this night. Have to heat my building site now. Would appreciate a small local climate oveheating…
    But the children enjoy the snow…

  9. would actually welcome it, have had (in maine) lot of swings last 2 weeks and I need frozen ground.
    45 last few days and 25 now, the rain really kicked up allergies too.
    bring it on.

    • +shedloads. Keep well-wrapped up, especially outside.
      Auto
      PS – I’m perfectly happy for a county record high on November the whatever to be ‘just weather’ too.
      Are the watermorons?
      Typo – I thought I typed watermelons – that was serendipitous.

  10. “The temperature in the vortex center decreases with the increase of height and reaches its minimum at the levels 30-50 hPa (20-25 km).
    The temperature gradients at the vortex edges increase with height in the stratosphere starting from the level 150 hPa, their maximum being observed at the levels 50-10 hPa (20-30 km). In the troposphere temperature gradients are maximal near surface corresponding to Arctic fronts separating the Arctic air from warmer air of middle latitudes.
    Thus, the vortex is most pronounced at the 50-30 hPa levels where the minimum of
    stratospheric temperatures and the maximum of temperature gradients at its edges are observed. We can see that the highest values of ion production rate due to GCR are observed in the lower part of the vortex (10-15 km) where temperature gradients start increasing.
    On the other hand, the 11-year modulation of GCR fluxes is strongest at the heights 20-25 km [Bazilevskaya et al., 2008] where the vortex is most pronounced.
    Hence, the vortex location seems to be favorable for the mechanisms of solar activity influence on the atmosphere circulation involving GCR variations. It is also favorable for the mechanisms involving solar UV variations, as at these heights (15-25 km) in the polar stratosphere the maximum ozone content is observed.
    The evolution of the vortex is known to be determined by dynamic coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere via planetary wave propagation, as well as by radiation processes in the stratosphere. So, we can suggest that the mechanism of SA/GCR influence on the troposphere circulation involves changes of the vortex strength associated with changes of the heat-radiation balance in the stratosphere. These changes may be caused by variations of atmosphere transparency in visible and infrared range associated with the effects
    of ionization and atmospheric electricity variations on cloudy and aerosol particle characteristics [Tinsley, 2008]. Indeed, a considerable increase of aerosol concentration at high latitudes which was most pronounced at the heights 10-12 km and accompanied by the temperature decrease in overlying stratospheric layers was detected during a series of powerful solar proton events on January 15-20, 2005 [Veretenenko et al., 2008].
    In turn, the increase of the vortex strength intensifies temperature gradients at its edges (see Fig.4). At the stages of a strong vortex this increase of temperature gradients may be transferred to the troposphere via planetary waves and contribute to the increase of temperature contrasts in tropospheric frontal zones and the intensification of extratropical cyclogenesis.”
    http://oi61.tinypic.com/2btfdz.jpg
    http://geo.phys.spbu.ru/materials_of_a_conference_2012/STP2012/Veretenenko_%20et_all_Geocosmos2012proceedings.pdf

  11. Re: ES December 29, 2014 at 4:43 am
    Back in Oregon Trail days, hot AND cold weather extremes were part and parcel of the various routes West. Only the hardy and prepared for anything folks survived the trip and managed to put a permanent foothold here. If Californians who now populate that state can’t manage this cold blip, it may be that their ancestral hardy genes have been bled away.
    Let this be a lesson to those who have steadfastly prepared for ever warming weather. The Oregon Trail is peppered with the bones of such foolish people who had been convinced that the West Coast was blessed with non-stop pleasantly warm climates and packed their wagon with the equivalent of modern day Bermuda shorts.

  12. what a difference a year makes huh. I’m still waiting for synoptic snows and not those of lake effect. Snow-drought in the g.lakes region on the way…….especially eastern lakes.

  13. Thanks, A. Good post.
    But, of course, global warming is causing all this cold, obviously.
    “But while studies predict that the heightened chance of icy winters may persist over the next few decades, beyond that rising temperatures will eventually overwhelm those cold bursts, and global warming will win out as advertized.”
    From “Climate Strange”, Bryan Walsh, TIME, Dec. 29, 2014.
    So much faith!

  14. “…beyond that rising temperatures will eventually overwhelm those cold bursts, and global warming will win out as advertized.”
    He says that like it’s a bad thing.

    • I cannot understand why warmists get so angry when you suggest that perhaps the climate is entering a cooling phase. You’d think they’d be happy to hear such good news. Instead, you get shouted at. I started following one of the Coursera courses recently. Some of the students started discussing AGW, even though the course wasn’t about that. Next thing you know, anyone who dared to mention the ‘pause’ or cooling, got verbally attacked, accused of working for oil companies, and labelled a denier. It was unbelievable, and a bit scary. I kept thinking that if these hysterical warmists were in a room with you, they’d lynch you.
      BTW, I think Coursera is launching a course on AGW. I’m sure it will be very objective. 🙂

  15. The Mayans have been known to make predictions studying the sun and astronomy. When their calendar ended, it did not mean the end of the world, but a transition, a new phase to something, maybe. I believe they knew much more than we do, and definitely knew about the sunspot cycles. The sun has reached solar minima, and that probably would have a cooling impact on planet earth. How bad it will get, we don’t know, but be prepared and stay safe.

    • jacob:
      The Mayan calendar ended essentially when the ancient priest decided to stop cutting new icons in the rock – much like we do when a monthly calender stops at the bottom of the page, or a yearly calendar stops at the end of 12 pages. It is no more important in the grand scheme of things than “they ran out of space on the rock.” They did track Venus transitions – and their calender stopped after the 2nd Venus solar transition pair ended on 2012. Did they record sunspots – I have not seen anther evidence of that.

  16. I’m curious about what is happening in the rest of the northern hemisphere, particularly the pacific, near el nino conditions and the northern pacific high heat anamoly. And the arctic.

  17. Dr Piers Corbyn has an interesting theory of jet stream control. In a nutshell as the sun goes quiet the jet stream becomes less circular and takes more drops towards the equator. So more polar cold comes down. If he’s correct (and his long term weather predictions are quite good) we could have a lot more of these until the sun wakes up.
    Wool socks time!
    Oh yea happy holidays to everyone. Stay safe and warm.

  18. @TRM: also: crop failures…
    General comment: I would love to see the maps of anomaly not on a Mercator projection, but on more accurately “per-area” projection. The place there the Antarctic seems colder is actually a fairly small surface, corresponding (assumedly) to a small atmospheric and ocean surface mass

    • Sorry, but the temperature rise in the upper stratosphere increases the surface temperature. Low solar activity – an increase in temperature, high activity-decrease. Visible multi-day delay in the troposphere reaction.

  19. Here in Finland where I live the temperatures range between -10 and -15 C (global warming, yeah!). It’s actually the first real winter we have had in years. Last year our “winter” lasted for about less than a week before it all melted away. This years winter is a nice change. And I do hope it gets colder, if not only to make these warmists more frustrated, heheh.
    And of course our local authorities are reporting this as signs of AGW…

    • Cool. The NWS forecast for San Diego Wednesday night:

      A 20 percent chance of showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the evening.

      I think that’s what people in San Diego moved to get away from.
      When I introduced myself to John Coleman at the ICCC in Las Vegas last July at the first dinner, I mentioned I was from New Hampshire.
      He immediately replied “I’m sorry.” He doesn’t like cold.
      I suppose I can’t needle him back this week, I’ll be wearing my parka most of this week, it’ll get down to about 9F (-13C or so) New Year’s Eve here.

    • ren, so like, cool air and warm air trade places and the warm area gets cooler, and the cool area gets warmer. Why this is such a difficult concept for some here to grasp defies my comprehension. It’s almost as if folk don’t comprehend the difference between “global trends over half a century” and “in my backyard on Jan. 1, 2015 at 0:00 hours.”

      • ren,
        Seeing the whole picture animated like that is a true thing of beauty. Too bad few here seem to be paying attention.

      • Brandon- You have no idea what people here comprehend, or if they are paying attention. Please stop with your hits on WUWT and the readers.

      • Alan Robertson,
        B. Gates has picked the wrong side of the debate. There is nothing unusual or unprecedented happening, but he cannot admit that like any scientific skeptic would. He’s an alarmist, so he has to be like that. It protects his ego.
        For more than thirty years scientists have been diligently searching for evidence showing a “fingerprint of AGW”. They have found exactly nothing. Everything observed is easily explained by natural climate variability.
        But when some folks have staked out a position, and have taught their position to others, they cannot easily change course. The easiest way out for them is to dig in their heels, and argue incessantly.
        That’s too bad, because a lot of them have good ideas they can contribute. But once someone decides on an answer, they begin to look for ‘evidence’ that supports their belief. They cherry-pick. But it is all confirmation bias.
        Hey, it’s a new year! Maybe a few of the more intelligent warmists here will finally have the scales fall from their eyes on the road to Damacus, and realize that there is nothing unusual happening.
        Because sometimes, as Yogi Berra says: You can observe a lot by just watching.
        [But conversely: There are some people who, if they don’t already know, you can’t tell ’em.]

      • Yep, that is about all that’s left.
        A more convincing message.
        The only problem is, that once caught playing loose with the facts, nobody will ever believe you again.
        Never.
        Wanna try to manage my grasp of that thought ?

      • Alan Robertson,

        You have no idea what people here comprehend, or if they are paying attention.

        I have a pretty good clue what people don’t comprehend, right from the very first comment: Two years in a row then. As a ‘polar vortex’ was blamed for the severe cold last time, what reason will be given this time?

        Please stop with your hits on WUWT and the readers.

        That was meant to be a joke, right?

      • dbstealey,

        Everything observed is easily explained by natural climate variability.

        Magic in other words.

        But when some folks have staked out a position, and have taught their position to others, they cannot easily change course. The easiest way out for them is to dig in their heels, and argue incessantly.

        You win the 2nd busted irony meter of 2015. I figgered you’d make it into the first 5.

        That’s too bad, because a lot of them have good ideas they can contribute.

        We agree. I’ve learned a number of useful things from climate contrarians over the years. It’s really great to be asked questions I hadn’t thought of before. Very much part of why I’ve read this blog and others like it so much over the years.

        But once someone decides on an answer, they begin to look for ‘evidence’ that supports their belief. They cherry-pick. But it is all confirmation bias.

        How is it you can be so sure you’re immune to the same disease, DB?

      • Gates says:
        Magic in other words.
        No, dope. It’s throwaway lines like that that make you such a lightweight.
        Being in a climate in which past parameters are not exceeded is a good thing, it’s not “magic”. Maybe it’s magic to you that we don’t have your predicted runaway global warming, but to rational skeptics natural variability is just Occam’s Razor updated. It is simply the most reasonable explanation, given what we observe.
        As for your cherry-picking and confirmation bias, it’s due to your ego, which does not allow you to admit what everyone here knows: you were wrong about the global warming scare. The great Leo Tolstoy explains you and alarmists in general:

        I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth, if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.

        And I am always sensitive to my own wishful thinking. Everyone is susceptible to that, and it must be watched. You folks just don’t pay attention like we do.

      • Gusty winds accompanying the arctic outbreaks will produce much lower AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures. Because of this the air will be beyond painful, reaching dangerous and life-threatening levels in much of the Midwest and Northeast for those who spend a significant amount of time outdoors without proper protection.
        http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_01011720_hd27.jpg
        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f120.gif

      • dbstealey,

        No, dope. It’s throwaway lines like that that make you such a lightweight.

        It’s true, I really don’t have your talent for zingers like that one. I’d like to think it’s that I don’t run out of substantive arguments all that often, but that’s probably just my ego talking, eh?

        Being in a climate in which past parameters are not exceeded is a good thing, it’s not “magic”.

        It must be cold in Hades today because I fully agree with you.

        Maybe it’s magic to you that we don’t have your predicted runaway global warming, but to rational skeptics natural variability is just Occam’s Razor updated. It is simply the most reasonable explanation, given what we observe.

        Ok then, explain the mechanisms driving the observed temperature rise since, oh 1850.

        As for your cherry-picking and confirmation bias, it’s due to your ego, which does not allow you to admit what everyone here knows: you were wrong about the global warming scare.

        I’m more than just a bit amused that this sub-thread started with Alan Robertson telling me, “You have no idea what people here comprehend, or if they are paying attention,” now here you are purporting to be a mind-reader.
        I’d sure like it if you could find a quote of me saying, “runaway global warming [scare]” … that way we could talk about my actual arguments, not your made-up rhetorical nonsense version.

        And I am always sensitive to my own wishful thinking. Everyone is susceptible to that, and it must be watched. You folks just don’t pay attention like we do.

        Well that’s the most pernicious thing about confirmation bias … everyone is also susceptible to thinking that theirs is not as bad as everyone else’s. Now if you’re about done ineptly psychoanalyzing me via the Internet — for whatever strange reason you saw fit to do so — how about that parsimonious but detailed explanation for the temperature record over the past 160 or so years?

  20. My solar based long range forecast was for Arctic outbreaks from around 10/11 Nov for ~2 weeks, and from 26/27 Dec for ~3 weeks. The next window for stronger Arctic outbreaks I have from just after mid March 2015 for ~3 weeks.

  21. During the winter when it’s cold, that’s just weather. During the summer when it gets hot, well, that’s global warming. Unless it’s warming in the polar regions so the poor cold air has no where to go. So where does the cold air come from if it’s warming in the polar areas?

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