Claim: If no action is taken, extreme heat waves will become the norm by the end of the century

From the Joint Research Center:

Analysing heat waves – new index allows predicting their magnitude

JRC scientists have developed a new index to measure the magnitude of heat waves, in cooperation with colleagues from five research organisations. According to the index projections, under the worst climate scenario of temperature rise nearing 4.8⁰C, extreme heat waves will become the norm by the end of the century. Heat waves like the one that hit Russia in summer 2010, the strongest on record in recent decades, will occur as often as every two years in southern Europe, North and South America, Africa and Indonesia.

The Heat Wave Magnitude Index is the first to allow comparing heat waves over space and time. It takes into account both the duration and intensity of heat waves and can serve as a benchmark for evaluating the impacts of future climate change. Results also show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades, and the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves is projected to increase further in the coming years.

The index is based on an analysis of daily maximum temperatures, which was carried out to classify the strongest heat waves that occurred worldwide during three study periods (1980-1990, 1991-2001 and 2002-2012). In addition, a combination of models is used to project the future occurrence and severity of heat waves, under different scenarios as established in the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Taking into account the disastrous effects of the 2003 and 2010 heat wave events in Europe, and those of 2011 and 2012 in the USA, results show that we may be facing a serious risk of adverse impacts over larger and densely populated areas if mitigation strategies for reducing global warming are not implemented.

The paper:

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RH
November 6, 2014 10:04 am

At least these guys are smart enough to predict doomsday to occur after the’re gone.

Louis
November 6, 2014 12:00 pm

Lately, there have been more minimum temperature records broken than maximum records. Are they predicting just more extreme heat waves, or do they expect more cold waves to occur as well? They would be smart to cover all their bases so it’s harder to falsify their claims.

Dawtgtomis
Reply to  Louis
November 6, 2014 7:46 pm

AGW alarmists have had a track record of claims that every anomaly of weather and/or climate is anthropological in nature and linked to CO2 pollution. That way they cover all bases. After every wild claim (complete with call to authority) that boggles the minds of the commoners, comes an ultimatum such as we saw above; “…we may be facing a serious risk of adverse impacts over larger and densely populated areas if mitigation strategies for reducing global warming are not implemented.”
This is more simply stated as; “bend to green politics or it will be bad for you.”

george e. smith
November 6, 2014 2:20 pm

Well I’m quite sure these authors are experts, so I’ll take their word for it.
But now to the crux of the matter.
What is their prediction / projection / guesstimation / WAG /whatever, for what WILL happen if we DO do something ?? And it seems that this editor recognizes do do when it sees it.

Matthew R Marler
November 6, 2014 2:52 pm

The next heat wave that is quantified by this index will be unprecedented.

george e. smith
November 7, 2014 2:49 pm

“””””…..Claim: If no action is taken, extreme heat waves will become the norm by the end of the century…..”””””
A self correcting prophecy.
If they become the norm, then they won’t be extreme.
Problem solved.

November 10, 2014 5:22 am

Of some note:
Results of vote on bonds for new school based on taxes from a wind farm in Archer County Texas .
Won by 7 votes only around 900 votes cast. $17,000,000.
This important fact was withheld for the voters. The generators installed were refurbished.
Scam aided by fraud.

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