Early frost events, below normal temperatures and snows across the globe are starting to reduce agricultural yields.
Cooling temperatures and reduced sunspot counts are easy data points to find, so to match results, I have recorded early frost events, below normal temperatures and snows across the globe are starting to reduce agricultural yields. Sept-Oct 2014. Australia, Algeria, USA, Canada, China, South Africa.
Data sources for this video:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL)
Home Page – http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
Physical Sciences Division (PSD) Products Page – http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/products/
Physical Sciences Division (PSD) Data Data Page – http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/
Physical Sciences Division (PSD) Data Maps Page – http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – National Geophysical Data Center
Home Page – http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Home Page – http://www.ecmwf.int/
Products Page – http://www.ecmwf.int/products/
Forecasts Page – http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecas…
h/t to David DuByne
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As the owner of a largish dairy farm in Wisconsin, let me set some things straight. Last winter’s bitter cold did not cause alfalfa winterkill, because we thankfullynhad plentiful snow cover. it was a late slow sping; the morels were three weeks late. We busted hump planting in late May, almost a month late. But with high soil moisture, good rains, and slightly above average GDD,mconditionsmwere just about perfect. We wont start the corn harvest for another couple of weeks as have notmyetbhad a killer frost (late coming), but expect well over 165 bu/acre. Two years ago with a long, hottish and dryish summer, we were ecking out only 110-120 on the same contours. Its mostly weather, not yet anything to do with cooling and shortened crop seasons.
Peter,
You say that temps have not been getting colder and wave a paper around that you state that you cant access yourself. I find that an interesting approach toward discourse.
In the US, for the last decade, temps have been dropping. You only have to go to the US Gov data sources to see this. Here is a link to the NCDC at NOAA website. This data is in the public domain, accessible by anyone, and easily verifiable.
The US has experienced a drop of -0.12 degrees F per decade over the last decade in the contiguous US, if you prefer scarier sounding data, it has been dropping at a rate of -1.15 F per Century, over the last decade.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/00/tavg/ytd/12/2004-2014?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000&trend=true&trend_base=100&firsttrendyear=2004&lasttrendyear=2013
When you click on the option to view globe time series for the same time, you will that the Globe has in fact been cooling for the last decade, based on the US Gov managed data itself. So, to summarize, you are wrong. The planet has been cooling at rate of -0.24 C per Century.
The US comprises only about 3% of the surface of the planet. Hard to extrapolate to the entire earth from a 3% sample space.
…
I clicked on “global” and plotted 2004 thru 2014 ….It does not look like there is any cooling underway.
And yet Peter wants to extrapolate from an even smaller area (South East Australia, or possibly even South East South Australia).
You are correct, Peter. I misunderstood what you were objecting to.
Has anyone suggested that the good crop yields may be somewhat attributable to the continuing increase of CO2?
I was just going to observe that I wonder to what extent the good crop yields we are seeing are more to do with adequate moisture and higher levels of CO2 rather than longer growing seasons.
Now, where are those studies on corn growth in different temperature, moisture, CO2 and combination regimes?
There are so many factors influencing frost damage to crops on SE Australia, I’ll list what I know.
-Seeding time.
-Soil moisture
-Crop type eg legume (high frost damage risk)
-High residue loads from no- till farming
-Soil colour. Dark soil has a higher frost index.
-Topography (naturally)
-Uniformity of crop pollination
-Short or long season cultivars
-The latitude of high pressure cells
-The prevalence of East Coast low pressure systems
-Cloudiness
-Humidity both in the atmosphere and crop canopy
-And maybe a warmer drier weather cycle.
Our farming methods and crop types have changed so much in the last twenty years that it is likely we have inadvertently increased the damage frost can produce. No-till continuous farming concentrates on the efficient extraction of moisture and nutrients to achieve a maximum yield bit this can also see crops moisture stressed at flowering and susceptible to Spring frost.
Traditional fallow techniques allowed crops to bridge the Spring dry by the extraction of carry-over subsoil moisture.
You can argue all you like about frost prevalence but farmers must adapt. As the old saying goes, “you can’t frost livestock”.
it doesn’t explain the paradox at all.
The (apparent) paradox occurs because minimum temperatures typically occur shortly after dawn when solar insolation exceeds outgoing LWR. Various clean air measures over recent decades have reduced low level aerosols, particulates and the clouds seeded by them. These changes increase solar insolation (sunlight reaching the ground) in the early morning, when the suns rays travel through the atmosphere at a low angle. Thus causing earlier and hence higher minimums.
The same reductions also increase outgoing LWR at night. Thus increasing the likelyhood of frosts.
The error being made is that changes in average minimum temperatures result from changes in nighttime temperatures. Once you understand they don’t (to a significant degree), there is no paradox.
Frosts have increased in frequency and are occurring later in the year over Eastern Australia.
http://www.farmingahead.com.au/uploads/article_item/cropping/8615/1ee0dda84d4be82295bc218ee271fb23.pdf
And as I commented above increases in minimum temperatures aren’t evidence of nighttime warming as they could equally well (and the evidence says they are) caused by minimum temperatures occurring earlier in the day, as explained above.
NB, the video is unconvincing as is the evidence for a direct solar effect.
I agree with you that the evidence for a direct solar effect is poor, but at least the guy in the video makes predictions that can be tested well without most of our lives.
If the Canadian harvest is not reduced next year the way he claims then he is likely a fraud.
If, on the other hand, his predictions are close to correct, he would have a better track record that AGW crew, it seems to me.
Temperature change and trends have direct weather pattern variation causes. These causes are the vicinity and strength of atmospheric pressure systems and the dance created between low and high pressure systems. The pressure systems themselves range from large semi-permanent structures to temporary regional and local smaller systems within the boundaries of the larger systems that ribbon themselves across land surfaces and temperature sensors. Why a tiny fraction of a % increase in ppm CO2 due to direct infusion of fossil fuel burning with its tail pipe and exhaust stack emissions of water vapor and CO2 is even briefly considered boggles the mind.
The coldest mid latitude land temperatures through solar minima tend to occur between sunspot cycle peaks, e.g. 1807-1817 and 1885-1895. On the premise that this minimum will be short like the Gleissberg and Dalton minima, it would suggest that the main temperature downturn in this minimum being from roughly 2015 to 2025. This would give fast transition to a strong increase in negative AO/NAO episodes, increased El Nino episodes (Dalton had 5 El Nino episodes between 1807-1817), increased positive Indian Dipole events, and renewed warming of the AMO and Arctic Ocean. Australia has more to worry from drought rather than cold, as will the US Great Plains, and Asia. NW Europe will see a long string of cool wet summers.
I am forecasting the flip to a colder regime to come in fairly rapidly from late 2015, with 2016 being the first very difficult year for agriculture:
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-news-viii-new-solar-model-predicts-imminent-global-cooling/#comment-1498257