Agricultural Losses in 2014 due to Cold Temperatures

Early frost events, below normal temperatures and snows across the globe are starting to reduce agricultural yields.

Crops_damage_frostCooling temperatures and reduced sunspot counts are easy data points to find, so to match results, I have recorded early frost events, below normal temperatures and snows across the globe are starting to reduce agricultural yields. Sept-Oct 2014. Australia, Algeria, USA, Canada, China, South Africa.

Data sources for this video:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL)

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Physical Sciences Division (PSD) Products Page –

Physical Sciences Division (PSD) Data Data Page –

Physical Sciences Division (PSD) Data Maps Page –

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – National Geophysical Data Center

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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

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Products Page –

Forecasts Page –…

h/t to David DuByne

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Henry Galt
October 11, 2014 12:34 am

Here comes the real climate change problem. Nearly 20 years of cold coming up with absolutely zero precautions taken or plans made because the politicians and media have been stupefied by ‘to order’ scientivism.

October 11, 2014 1:02 am

Hmmm, He Seems over confident on predictions about Great Lakes Ice and some corn growing areas for next spring.
Over Bullish but in time all he said will come true.
About great lakes Ice, 2013-2014 was the first time at a peak of a solar cycle ice was so extensive. All years when Ice was the greatest concentrations happened at or right around solar mins back to 1970’s when sat records started.
Anthony Here is Nimbus link FTP files of 1964 to 1970 First Satellite Sea Ice Edge Image maps.
Images seem to Cracks the Case that Global warming is what is causing all the Record ice around Antarctic in 2014.
Enjoy if you have not seen the images yet

October 11, 2014 1:15 am

It’s only going to get worse. Northern countries like Canada and Russia will be hardest hit. There’s a reason Putin wants Ukraine.

Reply to  Alan Poirier
October 13, 2014 12:40 am

To say nothing of Monsanto et al who are getting their hands on it right now……

Kelvin Vaughan
October 11, 2014 1:32 am

And we will be told it’s one of the hottest years since records began.

Reply to  Kelvin Vaughan
October 11, 2014 8:18 am

Just like clockwork. Next year will again be the hottessssstttt evaaaaaaaaah.

NOAA data suggests that 2014 is on a trend to edge out 2010 as the warmest year on record globally

Reply to  Kelvin Vaughan
October 11, 2014 10:46 am

Nope we will be told that freezing temps are the surest sign the globe is warming. And all the leftist morons will fall in lockstep.

Reply to  Kelvin Vaughan
October 11, 2014 12:33 pm

That is certainly possible. Hadcrut4.3 is averaging 0.555 after 8 months. The record of 2010 was also 0.555. So the 0.555 needs to be maintained to tie the record. And with the August anomaly being 0.669, it should be easy to average 0.555 for the rest of the year.

October 11, 2014 2:32 am

Really? They want us to buy that?

Reply to  Andrew
October 11, 2014 6:45 am

Why should anybody review it, Peter–when it’s just a propaganda piece? You want us to become as brainwashed as you are?
No thanks.
Recently “Officials” stated that this past summer was the hottest New York City has ever seen. But guess how many days were in the 90’s?
ONE! (And that was just 90 degrees!)
Everybody is laughing at them.

October 11, 2014 2:44 am

Here is the latest US ‘growing degree day’ (GDD) data for the US corn crop from NOAA (Mar 1 to Oct 4 2014): (GDD is a measure of heat accumulation over the growing season.)
The data show that there was an overall *positive* departure from normal GDD in US corn growing regions during 2014. Of the 9 cities that reported from Kansas, which is featured in the above video as having had its 3rd shortest growing season on record, none reported a negative departure from normal GDD in 2014. In fact, nearly all reported large positive departures from normal GDD this season. Of the 240 cities that reported GDD figures, just 33, fewer than 14%, reported negative departures from normal in 2014.
So while the growing season may have been shorter than normal in some US regions during 2014, the overall amount of heat accumulation during the growing season, as measured by GDD, was above normal, for corn at any rate.

Reply to  DavidR
October 11, 2014 3:17 am

I note that the NOAA has invented more propaganda. The US Ag Dept is my authority. Are they telling the farmers “not to worry”.
As the growing season shrinks there will be increasing crop loss due to frost. Matters not how warm it is in July, fool.

Thomas Englert
Reply to  mpainter
October 11, 2014 12:32 pm

I think there are hybrid corn varieties for short seasons.

Reply to  mpainter
October 11, 2014 1:07 pm

Which must mean smaller yields per acre, or not?

Rob Potter
Reply to  DavidR
October 11, 2014 8:16 am

GDD is calculated based on average temperatures for the day so will be affected by a high minimum as much as by a high max. These high minima are what is being seen in a lot of the weather station records and have been questioned as being affected by UHI.
Further down, crop yields are being discussed as being records for the year, but this has as much to do with rainfall as GDD – corn hybrids are developed to mature within quite a tight range of GDD so as long as they get that much before the first frost, they are fine. Not sure about how tight this is for soybeans, but there are a range of corn hybrids available to farmers based on what they expect to get – all the way up to the quite short season you get in northern states and southern Canada.

October 11, 2014 2:54 am

With record Antarctic ice extent – caused by warming – creeping toward Australia, increasing frosts there are also caused by warming? Isn’t life full of paradoxes?
Stats on frost events are harder to manipulate than temperature records. Frost events are reported by farmers and are believable. Temperature data is in the hands of climate activists and is not.
What feeds people is food grown on real farms, which experience real weather, not simulated in a computer program.

Reply to  phlogiston
October 11, 2014 7:44 am

Which is a very good reason for taking frost data out of the hands of those pesky farmers and putting it in the hands of climate activists.

October 11, 2014 3:08 am

Hah! Go peddle that to the Oz Labor party and see what happens. You have heard the old expression “once burnt, twice afraid.”

Ian W
Reply to  mpainter
October 11, 2014 6:17 am

Peter, I think that you will find telling people who cannot afford food because frost has reduced harvests that what they are saying is not true, as you have a CSIRO peer reviewed (no less) paper that shows that it is not really cold; may sell in the chatterati and academic circles that you move in but may be a little more difficult to accept for the average non-urban Australian.

Reply to  mpainter
October 11, 2014 7:26 am

It’s a CSIRO paper.
You mean TOILET paper. Only the Ozzies don’t use the world toilet, they use CSIRO for a crap.

Reply to  mpainter
October 11, 2014 8:30 am

That’ right Peter, I said “You poor dupe”, referring to your swallowing what the blog “HotTopics” put in your poor, uncritical brain. And now you come to this post and claim that frost damaged crops is due to global warming. Peter, you wring your hands and pee a puddle and and say dumb things and when people laugh at you, well you get angry.Why do you come here? You are ignorant of science and have nothing to add except to offer a target to those who understand the matter much, much better than you.

October 11, 2014 3:11 am

Looking at results this year, worldwide there have been bumper crops.
Good weather( not sure the alarmists like to hear that) boosts world cereal production – 2014 crop projections up 14 million tonnes
Bumper crops to bring low prices and full bins
“Now we’ve had two good crop years in a row, globally. The news out of Europe is that they are having a great wheat crop. All of this is adding together to say we have ample supplies.”
Corn Outlook
The USDA crop report has the U.S. on track for 171.7 bushels per acre corn, which is a record yield.

Cold in Wisconsin
Reply to  richard
October 11, 2014 8:03 am

But that is not controlled for the amount of land under tillage for a given crop. Farmers choose which plants to grow, and land is shifted from one crop to another based upon expected price. In our area they completely gave up dairy farming for corn, so we have higher prices of milk, but the corn for ethanol is booming. And huge areas of pasture were converted to tillage. There has to be a measure that calculates production per acre and adjusts for market shifts. Also growing days based upon temperature does not take into account whether the farmers can actually get into their fields. It might be a great temperature, but. Incredibly muddy. Based upon the maps, I had better buy a few more fur coats or become a snow bird.

October 11, 2014 3:24 am

Just listening to a farm show here in Indiana while driving down the road. They were referring to this years harvest of Corn and Soybeans as a “mega harvest”. I think there is no doubt that at least for the corn belt here in the US it is going to be a super year. Some farmers had to replant early on because of heavy rains and flooding but after that the weather has been very good for those crops. And the tomato crop was “tremendous” but I have read the Peach crop was poor.
Funny that the farm tomatoes were a bumper crop because we gardeners have had less luck with ours but then the varieties we plant are generally the larger slicer types that take longer to mature. Lots of green ones still on the vines with the first frost right around the corner for us.

Reply to  rah
October 11, 2014 4:25 am

oh ? hango on…arent you all supposed to be starving cos Cali is in drought?
and that one tiny area feeds you all? case it was needed 🙂

Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 11, 2014 5:25 am

I don’t know about “feeds us all” but I sure wouldn’t mind if beef and pork prices came down. They’ve gone up about 1/3rd over the last three years. They claim it is due to higher feed prices and of course that disease that hit the oinkers so hard. Well this harvest should help with the beef prices at leas to my Porterhouses aren’t so damned expensive.

Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 11, 2014 6:50 am

Two years ago, the price for yearling cows here in SE Idaho was around $1.10 a pound on the hoof.
This last spring, it was $2.30 a pound while the number of calves born nation-wide was the lowest since WWII.
It should be interesting to see what prices do next spring.

Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 11, 2014 10:30 am

@ rah Not too long ago, grass-fed beef steaks from my local farmer cost 50% more than supermarket (corn fed) steaks. Prices have gone up for both, but now the grass fed local beef is one third less expensive. if purchased at the farm.

Reply to  rah
October 11, 2014 8:17 am

Peaches are susceptible to early frosts – was this the case here?

Reply to  phlogiston
October 11, 2014 12:05 pm

Nope it was the harsh winter that stunted them from the very beginning this year they say. So I guess it was late frosts not early ones?

October 11, 2014 4:02 am

If we looked at the Solar Minimum in detail I began monitoring human and live stock casualties due to colder winters, maybe, since 2009, using Google News alerts. The list of entries began to grow and man-made global warming idiots blamed the colder weather on Man-Made Global warming.
I began living in South Dakota during the summer where in the late 1800s doing the start of another solar minimum period, the entire livestock of cattle was wiped out in one winter. Last year I was caught in a freak winter storm on October, 4 2013 that wiped out over 40,000 head of cattle, sheep and horses.
One story has it a small group of horses were driven mad by the cold wind and snow they actually ran over cliff of the badlands. I endured in poor borrow quarters in an Army winter sleeping bag for 18 hrs as my RV was in the shop for repairs.
Since 2009, nearly every country above 40 degrees North and South of the Equator has suffered losses. As one new Zealand Farmer told me, “The loss of an average of 4C degrees is significant in Farming.
Just a few winters ago, both Scotland and New Zealand lost 1,000s of lambs due to early winters. Ranchers here on South Dakota mentioned at morning coffee the loss of farming days for feed for their cattle.
The winters are getting colder and longer. Soon, places will have winters without summers.
Paul Pierett

Ian W
Reply to  Paul Pierett
October 11, 2014 6:29 am

Peter, instead of trolling here with one liners and monosyllables, why don’t you overwinter in South Dakota where you assure us it will be warm and toasty. You will be able to reassure farmers that have lost their stock through cold that you have academic papers that prove that they haven’t. I am sure they will find your advice most welcome.

Reply to  Paul Pierett
October 11, 2014 6:32 am

Care to explain why you say “No”, Peter? Or is it simply a knee-jerk reaction to something that counters your misconceptions?

Cold in Wisconsin
Reply to  Paul Pierett
October 11, 2014 8:14 am

The joke in northern Wisconsin is that June is Spring, July is summer, and August is Fall. The rest of the months are Winter. It is not too far from the truth, as Lake Superior is a great big ice cube until well into May, and the air can’t heat up until the ice is completely melted off the Lakes. I think a few field trips to Mandan, North Dakota, Thief Rover Falls, Minnesota or Ashland, Wisconsin should be in order for the Climatologists.

Jim Francisco
Reply to  Paul Pierett
October 11, 2014 9:28 am

Here in central Indiana last winter, my neighbor lost all of his honey bees due to the cold.

Reply to  Jim Francisco
October 11, 2014 12:13 pm

That’s where I live. Last winter Ivy that was on the large Chinese Elm in my front yard when I moved in 2001 died.

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
Reply to  Paul Pierett
October 11, 2014 1:30 pm

You keep missing the ‘give up’ line, gracie.

October 11, 2014 4:03 am

curiously though
the Wimmera/Malle area had a rather mild hardly frosty winter
my first in 7 yrs here to be so mild.
its bery area related and..NOT unknown, ditto the sth aus black frosts this winter
dry cold is sometimes worse than the icy wet cold.

October 11, 2014 4:52 am

Did you say ‘the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’? Ha Ha

Reply to  Alex
October 11, 2014 4:55 am

Sorry. My comment should have appeared higher up

Reply to  Alex
October 11, 2014 7:27 am

It’s a CSIRO paper.
You mean TOILET paper. Only the Ozzies don’t use the world toilet, they use CSIRO for a crap.

Reply to  Alex
October 11, 2014 12:25 pm

And now Peter, let’s talk about you acting as a messenger boy between HotTopic and Richard Courtney when you engaged Richard in a debate on the referred thread (UCS) and “sprayed” (your word, not mine) Richard with falsehoods which he swatted down disgustedly. The biggest falsehood was when you ran off to HotTopic, in response to one of Richards swats, and in your poor dupe messenger boy style, returned with the bald assertion that the GWPF had “plaigerized” one of their policy papers, you poor dupe.
Peter, a bit of advice: give up.

Richard Sharpe
Reply to  Alex
October 11, 2014 3:55 pm

More to the point, just because the CSIRO has some credibility in the WiFi area does not mean they are automatically due any credibility in other areas. Each claim of credibility should be assessed on its own merits.

Reply to  Alex
October 12, 2014 8:39 am

Richard Sharpe:
What creditability, pray tell.

October 11, 2014 8:01 am

Brrrrrr! Bugger climate change

NTZ – 15 July 2014
Munich Re Report: Top 2014 Weather Catastrophe Losses Due To Cold-Related Events, “Record Harsh Winter”!

Pamela Gray
October 11, 2014 8:34 am

Peter, you focus on weather. Stability as well as instability in weather is a natural pattern phenomenon. There are record temperature swings within a single year or season, record swings within a single month, single week, and even 24 hr or 12 hr period. Many, if not most of those records are in the distant past one or two generations and rarely get broken. That causes the current generation to get their knickers in a twist when they see an odd pattern, not knowing of the odd patterns of past generations. This is all to say you seem rather young and uninformed about instability as a natural weather pattern variation that has occurred before and will occur again.

Pamela Gray
Reply to  Pamela Gray
October 11, 2014 8:41 am

A google search turns up lots of stuff on instability and temperature swings. While Peter thinks this odd and possibly related to anthropogenic CO2, it would be difficult to ascribe that driver to a 1930’s record temperature swing. The freezing dips in a warming world is more likely associated with an oceanic/atmospheric teleconnected period of natural instability.

Richard Sharpe
Reply to  Pamela Gray
October 11, 2014 4:03 pm

They reckon that mean minima have been increasing in SE Australia

Ahhh, so the South East of Australia has become a proxy for the whole world?

October 11, 2014 8:54 am

I planted some haskaps 3 years ago. I got a handful of berries last year and bowls full this year. Over the next few years they will get up to full speed. Great crop for cold areas. The open blossoms can survive a spring frost and temps of -7C. I planted mine on the north side of my yard and they are doing great despite being exposed to north winds with no buildings or trees to provide a wind break for them.
Sort of a sour cherry taste + cranberry taste.

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
Reply to  TRM
October 11, 2014 1:32 pm

Oddly enough that’s exactly what we did with our haskaps- north side of the yard, right on the edge of an open farm field. And we get monster winds during the winter.

Reply to  Jimbo
October 11, 2014 8:14 pm

Where is CSIRO when you need them?

∑ (Sn) Wong
October 11, 2014 9:25 am

But frosting on cake is excellent.
Opps, sorry, wrong kind of “frost”…my bad.

October 11, 2014 10:03 am

My wife and I took a long trip from Houston to Hayder, AK and back. in the early part of June this year. What struck me was how green everything was. Cattle herds seemed more plentiful. Even later in the summer, the mountain valleys seemed unusually lush, even boggy, in places.
Nothing but anecdotal observation. But snowfall, rainfall and reservoir levels are in line with the observation.

Mike Smith
October 11, 2014 10:33 am

Those who crave climate data are simply over-analyzing weather events. But weather is chaotic so it’s all a bit like analyzing pure noise. And so we have, noise in, noise out. When they look at the finished/corrected/enhanced/homogenized noise, they see… whatever they want to see and that which confirms all of their preconceptions.
For the love of Newton, could some of these scientists get back to real science?

October 11, 2014 10:34 am

Fifteen fewer frost-free days in the growing season in those areas is something farmers need to know about!
Meanwhile, let’s not get amnesia and forget the shameless global warming activists were working in the direction of Season-creep, and most studies were claiming earlier springs, earlier blossoms, less temperature variation, and even earlier melt water run-offs.

In phenology, season creep is observed changes in the timing of the seasons,[1][2] such as earlier indications of spring[3] widely observed in temperate areas across the Northern Hemisphere.[4][5] Phenological records analyzed by climate scientists have shown significant temporal trends in the observed time of seasonal events,[6][7] from the end of the 20th century and continuing into the 21st century.[5][8] In Europe, season creep has been associated with the arrival of spring moving up by approximately one week in a recent 30 year period.[9][10] Other studies have put the rate of season creep measured by plant phenology in the range of 2–3 days per decade advancement in spring, and 0.3–1.6 days per decade delay in autumn, over the past 30–80 years.[11]
Observable changes in nature related to season creep include birds laying their eggs earlier and buds appearing on some trees in late winter.[12] In addition to advanced budding, flowering trees have been blooming earlier, for example the culturally important cherry blossoms in Japan,[13][14] and Washington, D.C.[15][16][17] Northern hardwood forests have been trending toward leafing out sooner, and retaining their green canopies longer.[18] The agricultural growing season has also expanded by 10–20 days over the last few decades.[19]

The reality is, the polar vortex may wobble again, bringing record low temps, shortened growing season, increased snow cover, and whiz-bang graphs and proclamations from the WH claiming total certainty that warming controls the polar vortex via the jet stream! If they knew that, then why shut down coal plants by 2015 in all of these states?
Put your confidence in individual farmers using every tool (herbicides, fungicides, pesticides, crop varieties) to respond to these stresses. And for heaven’s sake, keep the coal fires burning.

October 11, 2014 10:57 am

I try to read most of the articles on WUWT but I’m still a bit confused. Maybe somebody can educate me? Is the sunspot trend, as related to warming/cooling of the climate, is it at least recognized as relevant by the general population of WUWT authors? Like Anthony, Willis, Lord Monckton, etc.? (and the regular commentators of course!) I hope this question doesn’t take things off topic, if so, I withdraw my question. lol

Allan MacRae
October 11, 2014 11:17 am

I wrote this twelve years ago in an article published Sept 1, 2002 in the Calgary Herald:
“There is even strong evidence that human activity is not causing serious global warming.”
“If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2 [as I believe], we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
If anything, global cooling will happen sooner and perhaps has already started.
Bundle up this winter – looks like another cold one like last year, especially in Central and Eastern North America.
Regards to all, stay safe, Allan
I wrote this in 2009:
US wheat crop yields are down 20%, and US corn down as much as 35% versus 2008 due to very cold weather.
Crop yields are also threatened by cold weather in Canada.
Earth has been cooling for about a decade.
There was a natural warming cycle for about 25 years, and now Earth is entering into a cooling cycle that could last decades.
This year has been particularly cold in North America, and crop yields are ‘way down.
I wrote this in 2012:
In this complex case, I suggest that the best test of one’s scientific credibility is the degree to which one can accurately predict future global temperatures.
How many of you are prepared to go on record with your best estimate?
This is a good start (regarding Nicola’s 10Feb2012 post).

I say there is zero probability of major global warming in the next few decades, since Earth is at the plateau of a natural warming cycle, and global cooling, moderate or severe, is the next probable step.
In the decade from 2021 to 2030, I say average global temperatures will be:
1. Much warmer than the past decade (similar to IPCC projections) ? 0% probability of occurrence
2. About the same as the past decade? 20%
3. Moderately cooler than the past decade? 40%
4. Much cooler than the past decade (similar to ~~1800 temperatures, during the Dalton Minimum) ? 25%
5. Much much cooler than the past decade (similar ~~1700 temperatures, during to the Maunder Minimum) ? 15%
In summary, I say it is going to get cooler, with a significant probability that it will be cold enough to negatively affect the grain harvest.
Hope I am wrong,

Bill W
October 11, 2014 11:40 am

The video you highlight here is a one-sided view of the near future, full of cherry-picked data to support the author’s points.
Current yield data from the U.S. and global production data do not support Mr. DuByne’s views. The October WASDE, which came out yesterday, raised slightly the forecast for world wheat production, and also raised the estimate for year-end wheat stocks, despite a significant increase in world wheat demand. The latest Crop Progress report, also released yesterday, shows record projected yields and production for corn and soybeans in the U.S.
As Mr. DuByne no doubt knows, prices of these commodities have been falling rapidly through the past two years, hardly a symptom of cold-related crop losses. Corn is still below $3,50 per bushel, having fallen from $7.50 in the fall of 2012. Soybeans are at about $9.25 per bushel, down by almost 50% from their $17.50 level in October of 2012. Wheat prices have clawed their way back to $5.00, still way down from $8.75 two years ago. Yes, the strong dollar is partly to blame, but production increases in the face of slowly growing demand is the main culprit.
In the fullness of time, we may see for ourselves if Mr. DuByne’s gloomy forecast comes to pass. By that time, we will also know if the pause has continued for another 18 years or has been reversed; in fact, we will know a lot of things THEN. As for what we know and can project NOW, we should use the best data at hand to make our forecasts, and not be swayed by one person’s opinion. I would think that a web site by skeptics, for skeptics, and about skeptics would concur.

October 11, 2014 12:20 pm

“In the fullness of time, we may see for ourselves if Mr. DuByne’s gloomy forecast comes to pass. By that time, we will also know if the pause has continued for another 18 years or has been reversed; in fact, we will know a lot of things THEN.”
Though we may know more it really doesn’t matter in the battle that is going on even if it appears we’re entering an mini ice age. We will still have the zombies screaming man caused climate change. Because this whole deal isn’t about climate and never has been. It’s about social/political change.

October 11, 2014 1:42 pm

As the owner of a largish dairy farm in Wisconsin, let me set some things straight. Last winter’s bitter cold did not cause alfalfa winterkill, because we thankfullynhad plentiful snow cover. it was a late slow sping; the morels were three weeks late. We busted hump planting in late May, almost a month late. But with high soil moisture, good rains, and slightly above average GDD,mconditionsmwere just about perfect. We wont start the corn harvest for another couple of weeks as have notmyetbhad a killer frost (late coming), but expect well over 165 bu/acre. Two years ago with a long, hottish and dryish summer, we were ecking out only 110-120 on the same contours. Its mostly weather, not yet anything to do with cooling and shortened crop seasons.

October 11, 2014 1:48 pm

You say that temps have not been getting colder and wave a paper around that you state that you cant access yourself. I find that an interesting approach toward discourse.
In the US, for the last decade, temps have been dropping. You only have to go to the US Gov data sources to see this. Here is a link to the NCDC at NOAA website. This data is in the public domain, accessible by anyone, and easily verifiable.
The US has experienced a drop of -0.12 degrees F per decade over the last decade in the contiguous US, if you prefer scarier sounding data, it has been dropping at a rate of -1.15 F per Century, over the last decade.
When you click on the option to view globe time series for the same time, you will that the Globe has in fact been cooling for the last decade, based on the US Gov managed data itself. So, to summarize, you are wrong. The planet has been cooling at rate of -0.24 C per Century.

∑ (Sn) Wong
Reply to  Jack H Barnes
October 11, 2014 2:14 pm

The US comprises only about 3% of the surface of the planet. Hard to extrapolate to the entire earth from a 3% sample space.

I clicked on “global” and plotted 2004 thru 2014 ….It does not look like there is any cooling underway.

Richard Sharpe
Reply to  ∑ (Sn) Wong
October 11, 2014 4:06 pm

And yet Peter wants to extrapolate from an even smaller area (South East Australia, or possibly even South East South Australia).

Richard Sharpe
Reply to  ∑ (Sn) Wong
October 12, 2014 10:42 am

You are correct, Peter. I misunderstood what you were objecting to.

cal smith
October 11, 2014 4:06 pm

Has anyone suggested that the good crop yields may be somewhat attributable to the continuing increase of CO2?

Richard Sharpe
Reply to  cal smith
October 11, 2014 4:10 pm

I was just going to observe that I wonder to what extent the good crop yields we are seeing are more to do with adequate moisture and higher levels of CO2 rather than longer growing seasons.
Now, where are those studies on corn growth in different temperature, moisture, CO2 and combination regimes?

Farmer Gez
October 11, 2014 6:00 pm

There are so many factors influencing frost damage to crops on SE Australia, I’ll list what I know.
-Seeding time.
-Soil moisture
-Crop type eg legume (high frost damage risk)
-High residue loads from no- till farming
-Soil colour. Dark soil has a higher frost index.
-Topography (naturally)
-Uniformity of crop pollination
-Short or long season cultivars
-The latitude of high pressure cells
-The prevalence of East Coast low pressure systems
-Humidity both in the atmosphere and crop canopy
-And maybe a warmer drier weather cycle.
Our farming methods and crop types have changed so much in the last twenty years that it is likely we have inadvertently increased the damage frost can produce. No-till continuous farming concentrates on the efficient extraction of moisture and nutrients to achieve a maximum yield bit this can also see crops moisture stressed at flowering and susceptible to Spring frost.
Traditional fallow techniques allowed crops to bridge the Spring dry by the extraction of carry-over subsoil moisture.
You can argue all you like about frost prevalence but farmers must adapt. As the old saying goes, “you can’t frost livestock”.

Philip Bradley
October 11, 2014 6:47 pm

it doesn’t explain the paradox at all.
The (apparent) paradox occurs because minimum temperatures typically occur shortly after dawn when solar insolation exceeds outgoing LWR. Various clean air measures over recent decades have reduced low level aerosols, particulates and the clouds seeded by them. These changes increase solar insolation (sunlight reaching the ground) in the early morning, when the suns rays travel through the atmosphere at a low angle. Thus causing earlier and hence higher minimums.
The same reductions also increase outgoing LWR at night. Thus increasing the likelyhood of frosts.
The error being made is that changes in average minimum temperatures result from changes in nighttime temperatures. Once you understand they don’t (to a significant degree), there is no paradox.

Philip Bradley
October 11, 2014 8:39 pm

Frosts have increased in frequency and are occurring later in the year over Eastern Australia.
And as I commented above increases in minimum temperatures aren’t evidence of nighttime warming as they could equally well (and the evidence says they are) caused by minimum temperatures occurring earlier in the day, as explained above.
NB, the video is unconvincing as is the evidence for a direct solar effect.

Richard Sharpe
Reply to  Philip Bradley
October 12, 2014 10:45 am

I agree with you that the evidence for a direct solar effect is poor, but at least the guy in the video makes predictions that can be tested well without most of our lives.
If the Canadian harvest is not reduced next year the way he claims then he is likely a fraud.
If, on the other hand, his predictions are close to correct, he would have a better track record that AGW crew, it seems to me.

Pamela Gray
October 12, 2014 10:37 am

Temperature change and trends have direct weather pattern variation causes. These causes are the vicinity and strength of atmospheric pressure systems and the dance created between low and high pressure systems. The pressure systems themselves range from large semi-permanent structures to temporary regional and local smaller systems within the boundaries of the larger systems that ribbon themselves across land surfaces and temperature sensors. Why a tiny fraction of a % increase in ppm CO2 due to direct infusion of fossil fuel burning with its tail pipe and exhaust stack emissions of water vapor and CO2 is even briefly considered boggles the mind.

Ulric Lyons
October 12, 2014 1:25 pm

The coldest mid latitude land temperatures through solar minima tend to occur between sunspot cycle peaks, e.g. 1807-1817 and 1885-1895. On the premise that this minimum will be short like the Gleissberg and Dalton minima, it would suggest that the main temperature downturn in this minimum being from roughly 2015 to 2025. This would give fast transition to a strong increase in negative AO/NAO episodes, increased El Nino episodes (Dalton had 5 El Nino episodes between 1807-1817), increased positive Indian Dipole events, and renewed warming of the AMO and Arctic Ocean. Australia has more to worry from drought rather than cold, as will the US Great Plains, and Asia. NW Europe will see a long string of cool wet summers.
I am forecasting the flip to a colder regime to come in fairly rapidly from late 2015, with 2016 being the first very difficult year for agriculture:

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