August Arctic Sea Ice Outlook Contest

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces the call for contributions for the Sea Ice Outlook August report.

The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in arctic sea ice to share ideas about the September minimum sea ice extent. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. A post-season report will provide an in-depth analysis of factors driving sea ice extent this summer as well as explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal ice extent.

For the August Outlook report, we particularly encourage regional Outlooks and spatial forecasts and maps; both regional and pan-Arctic outlooks will be accepted.

We also welcome any field- or ship-based updates on ice conditions in the different regions and input on which observations are most useful for improving models. Sea ice scientists, volunteer observers and oceanographers are collecting observations routinely by ship throughout the Arctic Ocean. Such observations include sea ice morphology (e.g., concentration, ice type, floe size, thickness, snow, melt pond characteristics, topography), meteorology (surface measurements) and oceanography (temperature, salinity, upper ocean temperature). Which observations are most useful to improving model predictions or validating these models? Are there particular in-situ observations that we should highlight in our efforts to coordinate data collation?

To help with ship-based observations, a SIPN-related effort, IceWatch, provides a framework and a software tool (ASSIST) to help with standardized, ship-based ice observations. Detailed information and data from past and ongoing cruises can be accessed at http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/en/icewatch

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Due to the Heartland Conference in early July, we missed be able to poll readers during that time. The July SIPN report is here and the graph from it below.

Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (July Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent (labels on the bar graph are rounded to the tenths for readability. Refer to the Individual Outlooks at the bottom of this report for the full details of individual submissions).

The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers). NOTE: Not the minimum, the average.

For a primer, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page

This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see a minimum something around 6.0 million square kilometers, however that is not a validated model.

JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent -15% or Greater:

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source

Arctic temperature is running slightly below normal:

Arctic Temperature:

Mean Temperature above 80°N

Danish Meteorological Institute – Click the pic to view at source

My best guess is about 5.6 million sq km for the September average. You can add your prediction to the poll. Few seem to think it will be a repeat of 2012, and the only issue now would be if we have some inclement weather like that year that broke up the ice.

The poll runs 24 hours and closes at 9AM PDT Tuesday, as the deadline is close of business that day. The average of the top 5 responses (which usually exceeds 50% of the vote) will be submitted as WUWT’s estimate, unless there is a single number voted in that exceeds 50% of the vote.