In the past week both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) scaled back forecasts for a big El Niño warming event in 2014.
![anomnight.8.7.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/anomnight-8-7-20141.gif)
![figure4[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/figure41.gif)
Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/figure4.gif
Meanwhile, NOAA has announced that the probability of an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event taking place this year has dropped significantly, saying:
“The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter,”
Last week BoM changed its El Niño status from “El Niño Alert” to “El Niño Watch”, saying:
“While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year’s end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.
This means the chance of El Nino developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event,”
Earlier this year, sea surface temperature appeared on the rise, and there was hope in the warmist community that this would help 2014 become a record warm year. For example, the paid Center for American Progress mouthpiece Joe Romm squawked:
Is A Super El Niño Coming That Will Shatter Extreme Weather And Global Temperature Records?
He cited this model forecast:
![CFS21-638x564[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/cfs21-638x5641.jpg?quality=83)
Uh, no. That hopes seems faded now.
Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Index – July 2006 to Present
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) – Click the pic to view at source
El Niño related SST’s from earlier this year have now returned to near normal, and NOAA says: “the lack of a coherent atmospheric El Nino pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral”.
Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly – 2000 to Present
NOAA – National Climate Data Center – Click the pic to view at source
Here is the NOAA ENSO discussion published today:
===============================================================
EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 August 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch
Synopsis: The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.
During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Nino indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Nino-4, -0.1°C in Nino-3.4, +0.2°C in Nino-3, and +0.6°C in Nino-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100m depth) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50m, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average during July, but westerly wind anomalies appeared in the central and eastern part of the basin toward the end of the month. Upper-level winds remained generally near average and convection was enhanced mainly just north of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Nino pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Nino onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Nino is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Nino to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Nino-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Nino/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 September 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
End of diagnostic discussions
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I admit that your raw data looks like this El Nino is a bust, but just wait until the data is “adjusted”! Ah, then we will show you!
(some snark in the above is possible)
Damn, this is bad for California’s water situation.
The squawkers will run silent for now or move on to other squawk topics and predictions. They will have to be right sometime, even with coin flips as consultanting expertise.
Really though the SW US could use the rain from an El Nino winter. Maybe someone should call John Holdren at the WH and ask him to tell NOAA to fix the the SST readings so we can have an El Nino and the rainfall. Isn’t that how our Climate works?
/s – if you couldn’t tell.
“Is A Super El Niño Coming That Will Shatter Extreme Weather And Global Temperature Records?”
There are ‘extreme weather’ records?
Ah well, whatever happened to the ‘Monster Kelvin Wave’?
I love the emotion laden headlines associated with the Kelvin Wave earlier this spring. VERY scientific
“Monster Kelvin Wave Is Barfing Heat Into The Atmosphere” Daily KOS, May 9, 2014
* I had no idea Kelvin waves had intestinal systems that would allow them to ‘barf’*
“El Nino Update: Monster Kelvin Wave Continues to Emerge and Intensify” uknowispeaksense (??) April, 3, 2014
* the blog name says it all, I can’t add anything else*
“Monster El Nino Emerging : Massive Kelvin Wave Breaks Surface in Eastern Pacific” Lunatic Outpost (very aptly named LOL), Mar 26, 2014
*I get the mental image of a scene from ‘The Hunt For Red October’ *
“Monster El Nino Emerging From the Depths: Nose of Massive Kelvin Wave Breaks Surface in Eastern Pacific”
*Kelvin waves have noses? That implies they have faces … and bodies, yes?*
Oh well, I’m having entirely too much fun with this.
First the models predict an El Nino….
….then they predict an El Nada
and people pay attention to this, why?
Stupid El Nino ignores the climate models which say the trade winds have weakened..ah err.., I mean turbocharged..no! I mean..I mean..
reversed?
California is not going to like that. Their drought will go on. Without Celine Dion.
So does this year count as a “weak el-Ninio” or not at all? In other words, can we expect an El-Ninio next year or an El-Ninia?
Not very good news for southwest USA. We really could use extra rainfall in Texas…
Well, I don’t think that ‘climate models’ predicted a super El-Nino.
“Latitude says:
August 7, 2014 at 1:44 pm
First the models predict an El Nino….
….then they predict an El Nada
and people pay attention to this, why?
######################
when the weatherman tells me there is a 50% chance of rain, I bring an umbrella.
Well this mornings SJ Murky news, had six inch headlines about a mega el nino coming.
Really good timing.
PhilCP says:
August 7, 2014 at 1:54 pm
So does this year count as a “weak el-Ninio” or not at all? In other words, can we expect an El-Ninio next year or an El-Ninia?
=====================
So far this year (2014) the 3.4 indicator (on the right side of Anthony’s website) has been ‘neutral’, then swung to a very weak ‘El Nino’ area, then has returned to almost dead center neutral.
That being said, I don’t think (based on Bob Tisdale’s excellent ‘tutoring’) that El-Ninos or La Ninas are dependent events, probabilistically speaking. So, the bottom line is – who knows?
Steven Mosher says:
August 7, 2014 at 1:57 pm
when the weatherman tells me there is a 50% chance of rain, I bring an umbrella.
====
why do I not doubt that one bit
where I live, when the weatherman says mostly sunny….I take one
“… when the weatherman tells me there is a 50% chance of rain, I bring an umbrella.”
The weatherman has a good track record, but the Team climatologists have yet to get any prediction right. I see a big difference in a good weatherman and a computer-games-model jockey who calls himself a “climatologist”.
“””””…..charles the moderator says:
August 7, 2014 at 1:30 pm
Damn, this is bad for California’s water situation……”””””
Well California’s water usage is bad for California’s water situation.
SoCal is swilling in it. (and it comes from norcal.) You couldn’t add a thimble full to Lake Perris or Pyramid Lake up the grapevine.
Of course El Nino does not pay attention to climate models !
If there was a significant El Nino we would almost certainly be into record warm territory. NASA GISS LOTI is running at +0.65 (base 51-80) for the first half of 2014 – very close to record as it is.
Never mind.
Oops…
The third consecutive bust.
The PDO regime continues to destroy El Niño
AND Global Warming.
I think the takeaway from this is that the atmosphere drives El Niño. It requires westerly wind anomalies. Yes, there are feedbacks from warm water, but these feedbacks take place in the atmosphere, and if there is some stronger driver of the trade winds that doesn’t allow the feedbacks to create westerly anomalies, then it’s La Nada.
The Super El Niño hope by alarmists is definitely a big bust, but it still looks like we’re on track for a weak to moderate El Niño event by later this autumn in winter. This will be good news for droughted California and take another we-are-at-fault headline off the front pages. We’re only tracking slightly behind 2009 right now (the last Niño) and the atmosphere has already started to respond to it some ways (bigger Western Pacific typhoon season, suppressed Atlantic season, and cool/wetter U.S. summer for Southern to Eastern U.S.).
Steven Mosher says: August 7, 2014 at 1:57 pm
when the weatherman tells me there is a 50% chance of rain, I bring an umbrella.
– – –
When the weatherman tells me there is a 10% chance of rain, I put the roof back on my Porsche, because the last time the weatherman predicted a 10% chance of rain, I left the roof off my Porsche overnight and it rained. Fortunately my father put a sheet of plastic over the roof and in the morning I just had to gently push up on the plastic and I could let out the several inches of rain that had settled.
All those guys think an El Nino will put an end to their enemy, that pause/hiatus that has global warming stopped in its tracks.. No such luck I have to tell them. Whatever warming an El Nino may bring, the La Nina that follows will take it right back. By now they ought to know that ENSO is not, and never has been, a source of global warming. It is quite true that the super El Nino of 1998 did raise the temperature of the twenty-first century to what it is now but this warming came from a source outside of the regular ENSO oscillation. It was a once in a century occurrence that should have been investigated but unfortunately all those billions spent on climate research by governments were more urgently needed to prove that the greenhouse effect exists. You may know that Hansen himself told the Senate that he personally discovered the greenhouse effect. His proof was that he knew of a hundred year warming that could not be explained by pure chance and therefore must be greenhouse warming. Unfortunately when you look at his warming curve you find that at least 30 of those 100 years are definitely not greenhouse warming. You cannot use non-greenhouse warming to prove the existence of the greenhouse effect and that nullifies his claim. Nobody else has observed actual greenhouse effect in action either which makes it a pure theoretical concept, one they credit with creating a world-wide anthropogenic global warming or AGW.