El Niño is just not paying attention to climate models – looks like a bust

In the past week both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) scaled back forecasts for a big El Niño warming event in 2014.

Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/figure4.gif

Meanwhile, NOAA has announced that the probability of an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event taking place this year has dropped significantly, saying:

“The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter,”

Last week BoM  changed its El Niño status from “El Niño Alert” to “El Niño Watch”, saying:

“While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year’s end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

This means the chance of El Nino developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event,”

Earlier this year, sea surface temperature appeared on the rise, and there was hope in the warmist community that this would help 2014 become a record warm year. For example, the paid Center for American Progress mouthpiece Joe Romm squawked:

Is A Super El Niño Coming That Will Shatter Extreme Weather And Global Temperature Records?

He cited this model forecast:

Uh, no. That hopes seems faded now.

Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Index – July 2006 to Present

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) – Click the pic to view at source

El Niño related SST’s from earlier this year have now returned to near normal, and  NOAA says: “the lack of a coherent atmospheric El Nino pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral”.

Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly – 2000 to Present

NOAA – National Climate Data Center – Click the pic to view at source

Here is the NOAA ENSO discussion published today:

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EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

7 August 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch

Synopsis: The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.

During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Nino indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Nino-4, -0.1°C in Nino-3.4, +0.2°C in Nino-3, and +0.6°C in Nino-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100m depth) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50m, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average during July, but westerly wind anomalies appeared in the central and eastern part of the basin toward the end of the month. Upper-level winds remained generally near average and convection was enhanced mainly just north of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Nino pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.

Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Nino onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Nino is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Nino to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Nino-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Nino/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 September 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NOAA/National Weather Service

College Park, MD 20740

End of diagnostic discussions