Recent paper finds 1950-2009 Solar Grand Maximum was a 'rare or even unique event' in 3,000 years

Sun said to be “bi-modal”

While many, including the IPCC, suggest the modern Grand Maximum of solar activity from 1950-2009 has nothing to do with the 0.4C global warming measured over that time frame, it does seem to be unique in the last three millennia.

from CO2 Science: A 3,000-Year Record of Solar Activity

What was done

According to Usoskin et al. (2014), the Sun “shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions.” Now, however, in an attempt to overcome such uncertainties, in a Letter to the Editor published in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics, Usoskin et al. “present the first fully adjustment-free physical reconstruction of solar activity” covering the past 3,000 years, which record allowed them “to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of detail.”

What was learned

As illustrated in the figure below, the authors report there is “remarkable agreement” among the overlapping years of their reconstruction (solid black line) and the number of sunspots recorded from direct observations since 1610 (red line). Their reconstruction of solar activity also displays several “distinct features,” including several “well-defined Grand minima of solar activity, ca. 770 BC, 350 BC, 680 AD, 1050 AD, 1310 AD, 1470 AD, and 1680 AD,” as well as “the modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19-23, i.e., 1950-2009),” which they describe as “a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia.”

 

Figure 1. Reconstructed decadal average of sunspot numbers for the period 1150 BC-1950 AD (black line). The 95% confidence interval is shown by the gray shading and directly measured sunspot numbers are shown in red. The horizontal dashed lines demark the bounds of the three suggested modes (Grand Minimum, Regular, and Grand Maximum) as defined by Usoskin et al.

Further statistical analysis of their reconstruction revealed the Sun operates in three distinct modes of activity – (1) a regular mode that “corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67,” (2) a Grand minimum mode of reduced solar activity that “cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode” and which “is confirmed at a high confidence level,” and (3), a possible Grand maximum mode, but they say that “the low statistic does not allow us to firmly conclude on this, yet.”

What it means

Usoskin et al. (2014) write their results “provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.” They also illustrate the importance of improving the quality of such reconstructions, in light of the fact that previous reconstructions of this nature “did not reveal any clear signature of distinct modes” in solar activity.

Unfortunately, it was beyond the scope of this paper to address the potential impact of solar activity on climate. Yet the reconstruction leaves a very big question unanswered — What effect did the Grand maximum of solar activity that occurred between 1950 and 2009 have on Earth’s climate? As a “unique” and “rare” event in terms of both magnitude and duration, one would think a lot more time and effort would be spent by the IPCC and others in answering that question. Instead, IPCC scientists have conducted relatively few studies of the Sun’s influence on modern warming, assuming that the temperature influence of this rare and unique Grand maximum of solar activity, which has occurred only once in the past 3,000 years, is far inferior to the radiative power provided by the rising CO2 concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Reference

Usoskin, I.G., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G.A., Thebault, E. and Khokhlov, A. 2014. Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity. Astronomy and Astrophysics 562: L10, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/201423391.

Abstract

Aims. The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes.

Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details.

Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion.

Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes – a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.

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August 11, 2014 10:53 am

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: It’s the Sun

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 10:59 am

So my view that the Little Ice Age is a combination of oceanic/atmospheric settings impinged upon by a reduction in solar insolation due to volcanic activity is adequately represented in peer reviewed literature. Cataclysmic solar insolation reducing volcanic events leading into and through the Little Ice Age appears to be a stronger case for temperature dips than solar mechanics. At the very least, direct and calculable significant decreases in solar insolation due to atmospheric sulfur and ash veils are possible for these volcanic events. We have yet to be graced with a calculable solar mechanism for the Little Ice Age.

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 11:01 am

Golly Salvatore, now there’s a mechanism. Not.

August 11, 2014 11:03 am

Pam you are entitled to your opinion. Go with it.

August 11, 2014 11:03 am

Pamela Gray says:
August 11, 2014 at 10:59 am
We have yet to be graced with a calculable solar mechanism for the Little Ice Age.
And for why the Sun itself should vary…

August 11, 2014 11:06 am

One added reminder is many disagree with your opinion of no solar mechanism. But why argue let’s let future data determine who is correct.

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 11:14 am

An interesting paper on a model used to determine sulfur gas solar insolation change resulting in temperature change on Mars. There are also many papers on using geostratospheric engineering as a way to mitigate global warming. Basically injection of sulfur into the stratosphere. Climate change on large doses of stupidity steroids and grant-drunk swigs from the money trough.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CF8QFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Ffaculty.washington.edu%2Fdcatling%2FTian2010_Sulfur_Cools_Early_Mars.pdf&ei=ZAXpU-jwLq_xigLSt4DwDQ&usg=AFQjCNH_QQbEqN0F43P85TDRAoIKBpK9Qw&sig2=OH4btfVSsb2Nn0QkP8t2Jw&bvm=bv.72676100,d.cGE

August 11, 2014 11:17 am

Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 11, 2014 at 11:06 am
let’s let future data determine who is correct.
And you can follow your own advice and hold your horses until such time has arrived.

milodonharlani
August 11, 2014 11:40 am

Pamela Gray says:
August 11, 2014 at 10:59 am
Explain please why the LIA needs its own special explanation but the thousands of prior such events in the Quaternary don’t.
Aerosols for a few years cannot change the underlying climatic trends, which demonstrably follow from changes in modulation of solar irradiance and magnetism. These changes not only can be calculated, but have been for hundreds of thousands of years into the past and far into the future. They do a splendid job of hindcasting observed glacial & interglacial cycles. You OTOH cannot even present any evidence that the supposed mechanisms you imagine have occurred, because you can’t. Nothing approaching what you propose has been observed for any part of the planet, let alone in the ENSO record. Volcanic sulphates simply don’t persist long enough, for starters.
So, in sum, you have failed to show the Null Hypothesis false, ie shown no need to assume that the LIA was any different from thousands of other such cycles, failed to show that centennial scale climatic changes follow eruptions. failed to show any climatic effect at all from volcanoes (ie only on weather for at most a few years), failed to show any sign of the mechanism which you propose & failed to show quantitatively how that mechanism could work, among other failings lethal to your hypothesis.
Busted.

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 12:16 pm

A lovely paper on the atmospheric (and lagged) bridge to other larger scale weather and climate system under El Nino conditions. I want these scientists, Bob Tisdale, Leif (I need you in the group to combat the solar grand maximum bit still out there), and atmospheric volcanologists (they study what goes on in the air, not on the ground) to get together over a beer. I think they are missing the very important piece about equatorial solar energy transfer (IE recharge-ala Bob Tisdale) under clear sky and veiled conditions. This piece has the potential for longer term climatic effects.
http://gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sak9901.pdf

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 1:20 pm

So milo, you are saying that the calculated real reduction in solar insolation over a multi-year period would not affect the heat budget in the oceans which spews out its stored energy in clearly lagged ways, the Walker Cell circulation would continue as before, the atmospheric bridge would still work, and the global temperature beyond a temporary change in air temps would recover as soon as the sun shines again. IE heat storage into the oceans (which has lags as great as 600 years) would not be affected by stratospheric veils but air temps would. The affect of reduction in solar insolation during the LIA evidenced by the ice cores would somehow be completely ignored by the oceans but attended to by the air and would be here today, gone tomorrow with no accumulative affects at all.
That’s a lot of science to ignore.

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 1:35 pm

Milo, keep in mind that under clear sky conditions 51% of solar irradiance reaches Earth’s surface. Under complete cloudy skies, a little over half of that reaches Earth’s surface. Are you sure that stratospheric veils cannot affect the ocean heat budget while clouds clearly can? How would you be able to accept one but not the other?

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 2:37 pm

It is my understanding that solar enthusiasts consider the ultimate affect to be on clouds thus reducing solar insolation at the surface thus causing cooling and reduced oceanic energy storage. So it seems to me that the physical ability of clouds reflecting solar irradiance away from Earth must also be applied by this group with regard to stratospheric veils. The mechanisms of reflection/absorption are essentially the same, and the resulting change of Earth’s heat energy balance would be very similar, IE Immediate AND lagged affects. One would also have to consider oceanic circulation of this cloudy sky less heated store of water. I know several here speak at length of UV increases leading to ocean and thus global warming. Under an occluded sky, these same commenters would have to consider reduced UV thus reduced ocean and global temps. You cannot accept one and not the other when the mechanism results in the same outcome, IE reduced (increased) insolation of what ever part of the solar spectrum you focus on, whether from clouds or volcanic veiling, leading to increased (reduced) oceanic and atmospheric heating.

August 11, 2014 3:38 pm

No such thing I will keep promoting my opinions until proven correct or wrong.

Pamela Gray
August 11, 2014 4:17 pm

Oceans absorb roughly half (see the link below) of solar insolation that reaches the surface, about 120 w/m2 of the calculated 240w/m2 that make it to Earth’s surface. Cloud occluded skies can reduce solar insolation by 20% give or take. Diminution by stratospheric veils are harder to calculate. So let’s just use the cloudy sky figure and pretend that a cloud of ash and sulfur has darkened the sky in the Pacific equatorial band. Spend 2 years or more under that kind of reduction in watts being stored day in and day out in the equatorial band. These ash plumes are dense locally, regionally for the bigger ones, and their longer lasting stratospheric veils are implicated as a direct cause in epic global cooling events. Let the Earth continue to experience diminution of incoming solar insolation on a global scale thanks to that veil encircling the Earth as it spreads from pole to pole. Slowly over the course of 2 to 4 years the atmosphere clears and direct heating can be restored. But what about the oceans? Do they immediately catch up and refill the tank? Probably not as the ENSO cycle and all the other systems return to normal.
But that is just half of the picture. There must be an indirect volcanic result that has longer effects. Why? Because of what we know about ENSO connections to the atmosphere and global circulation of water from the Pacific equatorial band. Just about every tome I have read only closely considers direct reduction in irradiance and ignores the indirect sequelae of a reduced tank of gas in the form of less warmed equatorial water (which by the way is the bedrock of our heat engine), especially in the Pacific Equatorial band, sitting in the ocean waiting to circulate. The wind and current driven circulation on the surface is relatively quick (we have seen meandering surface pools do their thing thanks to Bob Tisdale) but the entire thing can take 600-1000 years riding the grand over-turning circulation route and mixing into various layers. The Pacific Equatorial band is a very large body of water absorbing heat energy to a depth of 300 or more meters. In our thought experiment, a 20% reduction in the watts it absorbs is no small thing.
That system is priority 1 for me when it comes to significant cold weather pattern regime shifts downward like we see in the temperature series from 1000 to 1700 that have been correlated with volcanic activity. The Earth hardly had time to breath before yet another stratospheric veil appeared reducing insolation once again. Eventually the system was running on air with no gas station in sight. And one more volcano blast sent us into the deeper depth of the Little Ice Age. The records show that stratospheric volcanic events died down and we have been climbing out of that empty tank of gas since then.
http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/educators/heat_budget/background/sys_struc/HB_sys_concepts.htm

August 11, 2014 5:20 pm

Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 11, 2014 at 3:38 pm
No such thing I will keep promoting my opinions until proven correct or wrong.
Perhaps you might consider that other people may be less interested in your opinion. And that your promoting is a bit tedious and old hat.

milodonharlani
August 12, 2014 9:40 am

Pamela Gray says:
August 11, 2014 at 1:35 pm
Yes, I can be confident of the difference. For starters, your own volcanic sulphate experts Robock, et al, have shown that after prompt cooling, the annual scale effect of big eruptions is to warm most of the world, not cool it.
Can you really not see the difference between water droplets (clouds) in the troposphere & aerosols in the stratosphere?
Until you can point to some actual climatic evidence showing a response on the multidecadal or centennial scale to eruptions, then all your (easily shown false) speculation is pointless. But all available evidence shows no cooling or warming effect from eruptions after at most a few years. The climate system soon returns to whatever trend was the rule before the events.

tonyb
Editor
August 12, 2014 9:59 am

Hi milo
Thought you would be interested in this graphic in which I displayed CET as decadal and 50 year segments.
http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/graph03.png
Undoubtedly a major volcano can have an effect on weather . This is from the annals of Exeter Cathedral which I researched a couple of years ago;
1783/4 ‘Extra poor relief in extreme cold’ (due to Iceland volcano?)
This was presumably due to Laki. which erupted in june 1783. However, 1782 had also been very cold as had 1780 and temperatures had made a recovery by 1785. As can be seen the decadal temperatures were up and down like a yo yo although the 50 year periods were steadily rising and the effects of Laki can not be seen.
We can also note from the Cathedral records:
1740 January ‘£23 to be given to poor in consideration of the severity of the season.’
Perhaps this was as a result of Tarumai in japan in aug 1739 but again temperatures quickly reverted to normal by 1741
As a result of looking at the hot 1730’s decade (the warmest in the record until the 1990’s) and the cold 1740 period Phil jones said that natural variability was much greater than he had hithetro supposed.
After looking at thousads of records I would say that big volcanoes can affect weather for a season or two (depending on location) but that they have no long term impact on climate and certainly aren’t responsible for decades or centuries of cold
tonyb

August 12, 2014 2:00 pm

I don’t think so since so many are of the same opinion as I am.

milodonharlani
August 12, 2014 2:29 pm

tonyb says:
August 12, 2014 at 9:59 am
Thanks very much for that link & for all your work.
You’d think that Jones would already have discovered natural variability before presuming to declare the late 20th century unprecedented. But we’re in the post-modern age of science, I guess.
I completely agree with you that big eruptions, or even smaller ones locally, can & do affect weather for a season, a year or two, but not climate.

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