From NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and “Earth’s thermostat”
A train of developing tropical low pressure areas stretch from the Eastern Pacific Ocean into the Central Pacific and they were captured in an image from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite on August 1. The train of five tropical lows include the remnants of Tropical Storm Genevieve and newly developed Tropical Storm Iselle.
![atrainof5tro[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/atrainof5tro1.jpg?quality=83)
NOAA manages the GOES-West and GOES-East satellites. Data from the satellites are used to create images and animations from NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
System 91C
The western-most tropical low pressure area lies to the west of Genevieve’s remnants. That low is designated as System 91C. At 0600 UTC (2 a.m. EDT), the center of System 91C was located near 12.0 north latitude and 167.3 west longitude, about 850 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. 91C has a low chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
East of System 91C lie Genevieve’s remnants. NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) issued the final warning on Post-tropical cyclone Genevieve on July 31 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT). At that time it was centered near 13.0 north latitude and 151.1 west longitude, about 1,255 miles east of Johnston Island. It was moving west.
Genevieve’s Remnants
At 8 a.m. EDT on August 1, Genevieve’s remnant low center was located about 500 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. CPHC noted the atmospheric conditions are only marginally favorable for its redevelopment over the next few days as it moves westward near 10 mph.
System 96E
Continuing east, System 96E is tracking behind Genevieve’s remnants. System 96E is another developing low pressure area with a minimal chance for becoming a tropical depression. The CPHC gives System 96E a 10 percent chance of development over the next two days. It is located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, about 1,275 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Satellite imagery shows the low is producing minimal shower activity. CPHC noted that upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph.
Tropical Storm Iselle
Behind System 96E is the only developed tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Iselle. Iselle is located east-northeast of System 96E. Tropical storm Iselle was born on July 31 at 2100 UTC (5 p.m. EDT). On August 1, Iselle’s maximum sustained winds were already up to 60 mph (95 kph). At 5 a.m. EDT (2 a.m. PDT/0900 UTC).the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 13.5 north and longitude 124.6 west. Iselle is centered about 1,160 miles (1,870 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.
Fifth Area of Low Pressure
The fifth tropical low pressure area is east-southeast of Iselle. That area is a tropical wave that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. That wave is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The National Hurricane Center noted that environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward at 10 mph. NHC gives this low a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days.
“JKrob,You don’t view cloud systems as heat engines? ”
JKrob:
I never said that I didn’t. One of my main points was that the ‘heat engine’ process for specific parcels stops when that parcel reaches it’s equilibrium level in the upper atmosphere (that is usually the tropopause but may be a lower temperature inversion) and the latent heat/heat engine process stops. Very simple…and very true.”
You replied to my comment on storms as heat engines, but apparently didn’t bother to read the article I linked from NOAA scientist Joanne Simpson. Why not? She specifically discusses how hot towers & clouds control the vertical profile of Q in equatorial zones. She also estimates the energy flux at 2500 w per sq. meter, an estimate apparently confirmed by direct observation. That’s a heck of a lot higher flux rate than anything reflected off the earth, even in Death Valley. So even if hurricanes block all reflected IR, they will have transported a huge amount of energy higher in the atmosphere (40-50,000 feet in the case of the hot towers) where it dissipates more easily.
Again: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/MG/PDFs/mono03_tao_joanne.pdf
I’d love it if you could explain why Simpson’s work was wrong, or give me a better understanding of these processes.
“There is currently some wind shear affecting the storm which, if strong enough, typically weakens tropical systems. However, Halong has easily overcome this shear and now has a very well-defined eye along with a robust eye wall.”
The real surface temperature shows where can create a hurricane and where it can be strengthened.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global_small.fc.gif
With such a circulation in the tropopause cyclones in the Central Pacific Ocean have little chance be strengthened.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/05/1200Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-119.46,7.52,636
In a way, hurricanes, clouds, tornadoes, thunderstorms, they make me think of Bastiat’s “What is seen and what is not seen” http://www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basEss1.html, but applied to atmospheric heat budget rather than finance. We look at clouds, and all we are seeing is the visible condensate. The vast and invisible forces that sustain and perpetuate the various atmospheric structures are more important and interesting than the droplets we can see.
Interesting that Bertha may strengthen in the Atlantic Ocean along the east coast of U.S..
Ashby@7:41:
You have very precisely put it to JKrob. I look forward to his reply but he might not. Good comment.
I should say that I regard cumulus cloud convection as primarily a means of transporting latent heat from the surface to the upper ATM. Krob rejects that.
So looking ahead a few days courtesy of GFS etc…
http://s4.postimg.org/lum14qw0t/dissipation.png
Ren’s current 250 hPa view not withstanding.
Uhmm.. “guys” if JKrob is the NESDIS / NOAA elect. tech/programmer J. Krob that paycheck thingy might depend on a certain viewpoint….
Caleb: Thanks for taking the time to explain. Likely my views are too localized and fail to see the bigger picture. When I see 95 degree air go up and 32 degree hailstones come down, it is sort of like seeing a sailor come back to the boat with his wallet empty; you know he’s spent all his pay somewhere. You don’t want to ask where, but you know it is gone. However in the case of the atmosphere you do want to ask where the heat went.
Another well-worded post. You are a sly fox.
Sweet Old Bob, Well, that may be so, but the conversation can still be interesting. 🙂
In fact, if he IS that Jeff Krob, he may be precisely the person to ask. Rather than assuming nefarious motivations, we should avail ourselves of this opportunity to directly question someone who knows exactly how the models work. Maybe we’ll learn a few things, and maybe he’ll realize we’re not all anti-science zealots. Maybe the models will even get better if we have good questions for him!
Ashley:
I am afraid that Krob has left us not to return and it is your fault- you scared him off with your question.
Matthew R Marler says:
August 3, 2014 at 10:48 am
to Caleb: Another well-worded post. You are a sly fox.
Are you familiar with Caleb’s guest posts here? If not, read and understand:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/09/author-of-its-own-demise-musings-on-the-amo/ which says in small part:
More via http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=caleb+shaw
Caleb says:
August 3, 2014 at 3:22 am
You are rapidly approaching the end of my knowledge….
Ah yes, that hot spot. I fear that term has become much like “tipping point,” something that everybody uses but doesn’t really understand. At least there’s only one hot spot, in the tropics, at a high altitude and will be due to increased CO2 resulting in increased radiation at a higher altitude and warmer air where radiation occurs now. The main catch is that there’s no empirical data to show the hot spot, even in the radiosonde record that goes back several decades. This was a “hot topic” of discussion before the alarmists shrugged their shoulders and moved on to other things.
Steve McIntyre has many posts on the topic, try http://climateaudit.org/2008/06/07/march-2008-radiosonde-data/
If you’re talking about thick cloud columns, like the thunderstorm that pelted you with hailstones, then the cloud tops aren’t reflecting much of anything down. In general, even thin clouds like cirrostratus that let a lot of sunlight through reflect a lot of longwave radiation back down. It doesn’t take much of a cloud to mess up what otherwise would be a good radiational cooling night.
If you’re asking what life would be like with a solid overcast that goes on for months, I don’t know what the equilibrium will be at the surface.
…
I think I understand what you’re saying, but I’m not sure what the answer is. The descending air will warm adiabatically, but will also have a net upward radiation since there should be dry sky above so there will be a cooling trend too.
Ric Werme: Are you familiar with Caleb’s guest posts here? If not, read and understand:
No. His comment that cloud knowledge was “miles above” him was sweet.
mpainter @ur momisugly 0617
Thank you for the info on cyclonic winds and convection. It would seem that the cyclonic winds amplify and/or increase the rate at which convection draws heat from the surface of the ocean.
I find the discussion on this post very interesting. The extent of my knowledge is what I retained from 9th grade science in the early 1970’s. The simplified version of that is the sun heats the ocean and the atmosphere cools the ocean.
From the information I’ve read in the 40 years since, there are many mechanisms that control the climate. It would seem that we don’t fully understand all the mechanisms we do know, let alone the ones we don’t even know we don’t know.
Ric Werme says:
August 3, 2014 at 1:53 pm
================
While clouds only (from an instantaneous standpoint) radiate a third of the LWIR of a cloudless desert you seem to be missing that the clouds reflect a much greater amount of incoming radiation which dwarfs the LWIR.
Refer to the link you provided in an earlier comment on this thread http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/03/first-light-taken-by-nasas-newest-ceres-instrument-inlcudes-stunning-blue-marble-image/
See what can be gained by the two graphics. Use a simple calculator and 2 minutes of your time. 2.7 times comes to mind. JKrob is wasting all of our time here.
eyesonu says:
August 3, 2014 at 8:14 pm
Ric Werme says:
August 3, 2014 at 1:53 pm
================
While clouds only (from an instantaneous standpoint) radiate a third of the LWIR of a cloudless desert you seem to be missing that the clouds reflect a much greater amount of incoming radiation which dwarfs the LWIR.
Refer to the link you provided in an earlier comment on this thread http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/03/first-light-taken-by-nasas-newest-ceres-instrument-inlcudes-stunning-blue-marble-image/
See what can be gained by the two graphics. Use a simple calculator and 2 minutes of your time. 2.7 times comes to mind. JKrob is wasting all of our time here.
And as all meteorology experts will tell you clouds are all completely identical in their effect is that what you mean eyesonu?
Perhaps instead of being so dismissive believing as you apparently do that clouds are ‘settled science’ (despite nobody not even experts like yourself – being able to model them or even describe in detail what goes on inside them.) you might try to answer what appear to be valid questions.
In that rather messy pair of graphics you refer to in the link, you will see that there is apparently a ‘tropical wave’ near the Antilles. You might note that unlike some of the cloud shown in the albedo image the OLR image appears to show OLR coming from that tropical wave. But you have no curiosity as you already know that cloud is cloud is cloud and so you _know_ there is absolutely no difference in effect between strato-cumulus, cirro-stratus and a towering CB pushing the tropopause to 70,000ft.
Sorry for wasting your precious time.
Ian W says:
August 4, 2014 at 8:29 am
========
Thought that I would check in while eating my lunch. Thanks for your response. Glad that you followed the link to the previous WUWT post on the NASA CERES instrument with regards to radiation from earth to space.
With regards to the discussions on this thread focused much on heat transport from the surface to space via convection you would agree that JKrob was WAY off base with regards to his comments here. I agree.
In that rather messy pair of graphics I refered to in the link, I agree that some in NASA do poorly, but it was what was published. Here we also agree.
As far as clouds being “settled science” I also agree with you. There is seldom settled science, especially with regards to so-called “climate science.”
I don’t know what might have given you the impression that I am an expert in clouds but let me assure you that I am not and only look at the available data and try to sort through all the BS presented by those who claim to be.
So in summary, Ian W, we are on the same page. JKrob is no expert. May be a programmer, maybe, but then that may entail only being no more that a typing clerk. But at least you and I both agree he’s out of bounds. We have a 100% consensus!
Hurricanes formed over the Gulf of California.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/ei/isaeepac.gif
I’m disappointed that JKrob didn’t come back to respond to my post on August 3, 2014 at 7:41 am.
eyesonu, Love that image of the clouds reflecting back up to 1000+ watts per square meter, http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/620328main_ceres-firstlight-sw-973×542.jpg especially compared to the image where the very hottest land is reflecting back less than 400 watts per square meter.
@ur momisugly Ashby
JKrob won’t be back. She just jumped out to scream and then ran away to: take your pick (………., ………. , ……….. etc.).
Now about her T-charts, I’m interested in that relevance to this discussion.
> mpainter says:
>August 3, 2014 at 9:27 am
>Ashby@ur momisugly7:41: You have very precisely put it to JKrob. I look forward to his reply but he might not. Good comment.
>
> mpainter says:
>August 3, 2014 at 12:43 pm
>Ashley: I am afraid that Krob has left us not to return and it is your fault- you scared him off with your question.
>
> Ashby says:
>August 5, 2014 at 8:11 am
>I’m disappointed that JKrob didn’t come back to respond to my post on August 3, 2014 at 7:41 am.
>
> eyesonu says:
>August 5, 2014 at 11:40 am
>@ur momisugly Ashby
>JKrob won’t be back. She just jumped out to scream and then ran away to: take your pick (………., ………. , ……….. etc.).
>
>Now about her T-charts, I’m interested in that relevance to this discussion.
>
Guys, believe it or not, I have a life & it doesn’t revolve around WUWT. With my 2 jobs, 2 kids, 2 dogs, 2 wiv…1 wife & my software development work, you are bottom of the list. Deal with it.
@ur momisugly Ashby
Concerning your link to the Meteorological Monographs concerning Dr. Joanne Simpson, I have no problem with her claims concerning moist static energy (Q) in thunderstorms. However, I fear you are misunderstanding what her point was & what Q is illustrating.
The moist static energy, Q, can be described mathematically as:
Q = C_p \cdot T + g \cdot z + L_v \cdot q
where Cp is the specific heat at constant pressure, T is the absolute air temperature,
g is the gravitational constant, z is the height above the surface, Lv is the latent
heat of vaporization, and q is water vapor specific humidity.
In that paper, it references an article in Geophysica 6 (3-4) by Herbert Riehl & Joanne Malkus where they state “…determined in 1958 that hot towers, small cores of convection approximately 5 kilometres (3.1 mi) wide that extend from the planetary boundary layer to the tropopause, were the primary mechanism that **transported energy out of the tropics to the middle latitudes**.” (emphasis mine)
Now wait a minute, they *must* be wrong because ol’ mpainter & eyesonu claim that the energy is released to space at the top of the cloud. Well, I’d better let the good Dr. Reihl know he doesn’t know what he is talking about! /sarc
Notice in the Dr. Joanne paper, it is stated that it would require 1500-5000 ‘giant clouds’ to maintain heat fluxes of the 2500 Wm2. In other words, all that ‘heat’ is spread out in a broad area containing 1500-5000 cumulus clouds to which I say…fine! I’m sure in the core of hurricanes and large extratropical systems, the heat fluxes are probably more but it is spread out over a large area.
*HOWEVER* none of that violates the parcel dynamics of dry vs saturated adiabatic lapse rates which I stated much earlier, the clouds are *STILL* opaque to LWIR (the internal temperature of the cloud cannot be seen, only the outer ‘skin’ temperature) and when the cloud/air parcel reaches it’s level of equilibrium, it stops rising, the latent heat effect stops and the parcel is at the same temperature as it’s surroundings, which, in the mid-latitudes & tropics, is VERY COLD…STILL.
> eyesonu says:
>August 3, 2014 at 8:14 pm
>Ric Werme says:
>August 3, 2014 at 1:53 pm
>================
>While clouds only (from an instantaneous standpoint) radiate a third of the LWIR of a cloudless >desert you seem to be missing that the clouds reflect a much greater amount of incoming >radiation which dwarfs the LWIR.
>
>Refer to the link you provided in an earlier comment on this thread http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/03/first-light-taken-by-nasas-newest-ceres-instrument-inlcudes-stunning-blue-marble-image/
>
>See what can be gained by the two graphics. Use a simple calculator and 2 minutes of your time. >2.7 times comes to mind. JKrob is wasting all of our time here.
>
Ahh yes. Let’s take a look at the WUWT post concerning the NASA CERES satellite instrument & not only look at the pix but see what they say…eh?
Concerning the first CERES image in the page, they say:
“Thick (white) cloud cover tends to reflect a large amount of incoming (SW) solar energy back to space (blue/green/white image), but at the same time, reduce the amount of outgoing (LWIR) heat lost to space (red/blue/orange image). Contrast the areas that do not have cloud cover (darker colored regions) to get a sense for how much impact the clouds have on incoming and outgoing energy.
(ahem #1…) That is what I have been saying ALL ALONG. Clouds reflect solar SW energy proportional to the clouds density (thicker cloud, more reflection of SW energy) where they reduce the amount of LWIR heat from the ground because could are opaque (block)LWIR.
Concerning the second CERES image in the page, they say:
“In the longwave image, heat energy radiated from Earth (in watts per square meter) is shown in shades of yellow, red, blue and white. The brightest-yellow areas are the hottest (land/surface) and are emitting the most energy out to space, while the dark blue areas and the bright white clouds are much colder, emitting the least energy. ”
(ahem #2…) That is what I have been saying ALL ALONG!!! But…that can’t be correct because…it’s NASA & because ol’ mpainter & eyesonu are *obviously* smarter than dumb ol’ NASA. /sarc
But…hey, let’s see what the rest of the Internet has to say about satellite imaging of hot cloud top temperatures with all that latent heat billowing out to space.
First off, let’s go check out NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Weather Satellite page;
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/
There, you can select from the GOES wxsats different IR channels & the geographic area to view & when you bring up the image, it shows the color scale with the temperature calibration and…oh…don’t go there. It shows the tall cloud tops are colder than the lower clouds & earth surface. Thats BAD DATA…IT WRONG!!! /sarc
OK, lets go try the NOAA Geostationary Satellite Server;
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR.html
Here, you can see different color enhancements to the images…and the scale is actual radiance counts from the instrument!! (well, the GOES Imager actually has radiance counts from 1-1024 but they reduce the scale to be more ‘coarse’ for the sake of the webpage. The IMAGER can ‘see’ temps from -140F to 160F in 1024 steps so it has .1F resolution). OOhhhh…I’m sorry, this is not a good web site either because they spout the dogma that cold clouds are high clouds & they even have the lie of the math to convert from radiances to temperature to PROVE IT!! /sarc
Can you get where I’m going with this? I have been very consistent with my argument and have taken an abundance of my time to give demonstratible (sp?) facts showing how the ‘latent heat to space’ idea is wrong & yet folks like mpainter, eyesonu & others blow about how I am wrong and they show nothing to back it up & resort to name calling & attacks on me.
Welcome to the internet…
Jeff
JKrob says:
August 5, 2014 at 6:01 pm
========
Are you a politician? You wrote a bunch of words but on the face of it you are either willfully ignorant of just plain ignorant. There is so much BS in your comment that I don’t quite know where to start. I’m not sure that I will even waste my time on you but I may just for the benefit of any other readers on this thread.