From NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and “Earth’s thermostat”
A train of developing tropical low pressure areas stretch from the Eastern Pacific Ocean into the Central Pacific and they were captured in an image from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite on August 1. The train of five tropical lows include the remnants of Tropical Storm Genevieve and newly developed Tropical Storm Iselle.
![atrainof5tro[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/atrainof5tro1.jpg?quality=83)
NOAA manages the GOES-West and GOES-East satellites. Data from the satellites are used to create images and animations from NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
System 91C
The western-most tropical low pressure area lies to the west of Genevieve’s remnants. That low is designated as System 91C. At 0600 UTC (2 a.m. EDT), the center of System 91C was located near 12.0 north latitude and 167.3 west longitude, about 850 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. 91C has a low chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
East of System 91C lie Genevieve’s remnants. NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) issued the final warning on Post-tropical cyclone Genevieve on July 31 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT). At that time it was centered near 13.0 north latitude and 151.1 west longitude, about 1,255 miles east of Johnston Island. It was moving west.
Genevieve’s Remnants
At 8 a.m. EDT on August 1, Genevieve’s remnant low center was located about 500 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. CPHC noted the atmospheric conditions are only marginally favorable for its redevelopment over the next few days as it moves westward near 10 mph.
System 96E
Continuing east, System 96E is tracking behind Genevieve’s remnants. System 96E is another developing low pressure area with a minimal chance for becoming a tropical depression. The CPHC gives System 96E a 10 percent chance of development over the next two days. It is located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, about 1,275 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Satellite imagery shows the low is producing minimal shower activity. CPHC noted that upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph.
Tropical Storm Iselle
Behind System 96E is the only developed tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Iselle. Iselle is located east-northeast of System 96E. Tropical storm Iselle was born on July 31 at 2100 UTC (5 p.m. EDT). On August 1, Iselle’s maximum sustained winds were already up to 60 mph (95 kph). At 5 a.m. EDT (2 a.m. PDT/0900 UTC).the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 13.5 north and longitude 124.6 west. Iselle is centered about 1,160 miles (1,870 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.
Fifth Area of Low Pressure
The fifth tropical low pressure area is east-southeast of Iselle. That area is a tropical wave that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. That wave is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The National Hurricane Center noted that environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward at 10 mph. NHC gives this low a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days.
ThinAir says:
August 1, 2014 at 3:09 pm
How much heat does a “typical” pacific cyclone move into the upper atmosphere to assist in cooling the earth? Significant or not?
It all depends what you call significant.
From http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html A NOAA FAQ
They give 2 methods of calculating the energy – which are in reality additive. One looks at energy due to the hydroiogical cycle the other looks at the wind energy.
Method 1) – Total energy released through cloud/rain formation:
An average hurricane produces 1.5 cm/day (0.6 inches/day) of rain inside a circle of radius 665 km (360 n.mi) (Gray 1981). (More rain falls in the inner portion of hurricane around the eyewall, less in the outer rainbands.) Converting this to a volume of rain gives 2.1 x 1016 cm3/day. A cubic cm of rain weighs 1 gm. Using the latent heat of condensation, this amount of rain produced gives
5.2 x 1019 Joules/day or
6.0 x 1014 Watts.
This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity – an incredible amount of energy produced! (That is one hurricane in one day)
Method 2) – Total kinetic energy (wind energy) generated:
For a mature hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy generated is equal to that being dissipated due to friction. The dissipation rate per unit area is air density times the drag coefficient times the windspeed cubed (See Emanuel 1999 for details). One could either integrate a typical wind profile over a range of radii from the hurricane’s center to the outer radius encompassing the storm, or assume an average windspeed for the inner core of the hurricane. Doing the latter and using 40 m/s (90 mph) winds on a scale of radius 60 km (40 n.mi.), one gets a wind dissipation rate (wind generation rate) of
1.3 x 1017 Joules/day or
1.5 x 1012Watts.
This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity – also an amazing amount of energy being produced! (That is one hurricane in one day)
So a ‘normal’ hurricane’ takes more than 200 times the worldwide energy generation capacity from the ocean – most of which vents to space as outgoing long wave radiation when the water condenses/freezes at the top of the hurricane outflow. (you can see the outgoing infra red from storms on the GOES EAST imagery here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html )
Yes, though the NOAA sites make no mention of radiative transfer of energy to space. If you could harness the energy of a hurricane, you would get 5.2 x 10^19 Joules/day or 6.0 x 10^14 Watts. Satellites use reflected sun light or the earth for passive imagery as well as active onboard radiosondes.
Iselle is already a hurricane. Pressure drops. However, it is blocked by the jet stream.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-124.28,8.66,483
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-126.66,21.61,732
Jetstream cuts down uppermost layer of a hurricane.
My musings: Not much equatorial oceanic surface layer solar heating getting through that mess. With ENSO values on the El Nado side, evaporation is clearly ruling the day and there is relatively little recharge happening. The tank continues to empty under these conditions.
Temperature above the equator at an altitude jetstream, that is about 250 hPa (about 12 km) on average is -40 degrees C. Therefore, the clouds are strongly cooled and dissipates heat. As a result, the surface is cooled.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JAS_EQ_2014.gif
Above message is for
Not true about cumulonimbus clouds blocking LWIR. To get to the level of clouds we see in the photo, there must be a great deal of warmed moist air rising. This process is what makes the low pressure/high pressure of the Walker Cell work. The cell normally consists of two systems, one low and one high. When the Walker Cell breaks down, as it clearly has, the strongly low pressure system normally parked over the western Pacific weakens and spreads East along the equatorial band breaking up into little low pressure systems. Each one of these systems identified with a name in the photo is a mini low pressure system under the clouds as the warmed moist air rises creating the cumulonimbus cloud tops. The fact that one sees clouds like these is prima fascia evidence of heat rising through the atmosphere.
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Atmosphere/walker_circulation.html&edu=mid
JKrob,
You don’t view cloud systems as heat engines? That isn’t exactly a new idea: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/MG/PDFs/mono03_tao_joanne.pdf
Simpson’s analysis indicates massive heat flux from the oceans drives hurricanes & hot towers.
(Sorry, can’t cut and paste from that pdf.)
She outlines hot towers with energy fluxes of 2500 W per M squared and hurricanes with similar energetics but drawing their energy from the ocean. Given the size of large hurricanes, that would be an immense amount of energy.
Can you explain why that isn’t the case?
All the evaporation… This will make huge snowstorms on SpaghettiO’s head this winter?
Ric Werme says: August 2, 2014 at 5:58 am
The heating from a Chinook is from air compression. Dry air heats at 5.5°F/1000ft, saturated air heats at 3°F/1000ft, so air coming over the Rockies at 15Kft, dropping to 6000ft will warm 40.5°F at 50% RH. Nothing like going to bed at 20° and waking to 60° on a January morning, a pleasant break from the cold. the Front Range from Denver, CO to Laramie, WY is a great place to experience this.
Pamela Gray
The reason there is a ‘discussion’ here is because the Warmers claim that radiation is the only possible source of surface cooling because ultimately the only way the Earth can cool is by radiation to space. They also correctly think that evaporation and conduction net out to zero. They correctly point out that the tops of clouds or hurricanes radiate less than clear sky.
What they conveniently forget to mention is that the whole evaporation/convection cycle bypasses the the radiation blocking of the atmosphere and clouds. The increased outgoing radiation is where the latent heat has finally become sensible, out in the clear sky and expanded atmosphere.
Genghis, sort of like a bubbling gravy. The bubbles of hot gas rise and break through the surface of the gravy, releasing heat into the space of the kitchen. It is the very reason for the existence of a range hood, to keep the kitchen from overheating and at the same time trap moisture and atomized grease in the filter instead of on the walls and ceiling.
Once surface heat breaks into the stratosphere above the cloud tops, there is no ceiling to stop it from escaping.
Typhoon Halong is also blocked by the jet stream.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-221.17,18.35,1110
mwhite says:August 2, 2014 at 2:44 am Watch in real time
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-145.52,12.12,512
What is this displaying?
It shows what appears to be a significant flow all the way down the west coast.
Are the cyclones drawing in colder air from the north?
It’s not the jet stream.
ren showed the jet stream—-says:August 2, 2014 at 4:40 am
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-102.83,16.71,419
This paper says anthropogenic warming will weaken Walker Cell circulation.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7089/abs/nature04744.html
This paper says anthropogenic warming will strengthen Walker Cell circulation.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n6/full/nclimate1840.html
It’s a wonder climate scientists don’t sit on the heads instead of their ass when going to the bathroom.
Steve Oregon
http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html
Pamela Gray says:
August 2, 2014 at 7:30 am “Not true about cumulonimbus clouds blocking LWIR.”
An aircraft being watched/tracted with FLIR or any other IR detection flying into a cumulonimbus will no longer be detected. 🙂
just say a “low”….instead of CYCLONE!!!
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cyclones and anticyclones refer to rotation of wind around a low or high. in some English speaking countries the term is confused with hurricanes and typhoons, which are tropical cyclones with sustained winds >= 64 knots. interestingly, extra tropical storms often have much more total energy than hurricanes or typhoons, but less intense winds as the storms are spread out over much larger areas. compare a north pacific winter storm to the 5 pictured storms in the lead photo.
As this thread has become most interesting and Ren and others have linked to earth.nullschool.net I would like to offer a couple of points to users going there for first time.
When following links provided by commenters on this thread to earth.nullschool.net, you can click on the word EARTH on the left side of the screen and that opens the menu where you can change the elevation or other parameters to be displayed.
I like to open multiple tabs with a display of different parameters in each (e.g. wind, elev, water vapor, etc.) and, lo and behold, I think I may see the Hadley cells in live time.
“How much heat does a “typical” pacific cyclone move into the upper atmosphere to assist in cooling the earth? Significant or not?”
===============
here is a calculation showing a hurricane as equivalent to 11,000 Hiroshima A bombs
http://www.counterpunch.org/2008/09/05/the-energy-of-a-hurricane/
RE: JKrob says:
August 2, 2014 at 3:26 am
Thanks for that detailed explanation. It gave me something to think about as I weeded in the garden. However perhaps it was a little too heady, for my eyes were slightly crossed and I was ripping up the tomatoes and leaving behind the crabgrass. It was when I discovered I was ripping up the wiring to the external lighting that I decided I better think inside, went back to my computer, and spotted Ric Werme’s simpler explanation. (Simpler is better, with me.)
As I went back to my weeding it suddenly struck me, (like the apple struck Newton,) Hailstones! How can we explain hailstones?
In the case of hailstones you have water going up as 95 degree vapor, and coming down as 32 degree ice. Even ignoring the latent heat released by the phase changes from vapor to liquid and from liquid to ice, we have gone and lost 62 degrees somewhere. Where has it gone?
(Cue the “Twilight Zone” music.)
Obviously this subject is miles above my head, but I really do thank you for making my weeding far more interesting. And I will study your response further when I have time. Thanks again.
Pamela Gray says:
This paper says anthropogenic warming will weaken Walker Cell circulation.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7089/abs/nature04744.html
This paper says anthropogenic warming will strengthen Walker Cell circulation.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n6/full/nclimate1840.html
It’s a wonder climate scientists don’t sit on the heads instead of their ass when going to the bathroom.
===
But they are both right ! CO2 can do ANYTHING.
That way they have [their] bets covered, which ever way it turns out they can say ” this is exactly what was predicted to happen as the world warms due human emissions from burning fossil fuels”. , see paper published in Nature : http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/……
Heads we win, tails you loose. 😉
Joel O’Bryan says:
August 1, 2014 at 9:07 pm
That was a good post. Do you think that the upward energy transport by the cyclones will contribute to the decay (seemingly, so far) of the predicted (by some) El Nino?