![CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/cmip5-73-models-vs-obs-20n-20s-mt-5-yr-means11.png?quality=75)
But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky.
That said, whether you are making climate predictions, or predictions about what kind of car and highway you’ll be driving in 20 years, predictions about the future are indeed difficult. I stumbled on this film from 1956 today by accident, and I just had to laugh at how far off the mark it was. It made me think of climate science and it’s failed predictions we see in the graph in the upper right.
On the plus side, some predictions in the film have come true. We have GPS Navigation, we have automobile status displays, and we have OnStar vehicle to dispatch communications. What we don’t have is dual jet turbine powered consumer level cars, autopilot (though Google is getting close) or uniformed controllers at freeway intersections that sing.
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Actually, warmist climate science is often as bad at “predicting” the past as it is the future.
Classic! Best part is the Honda ad that popped up during screen credits…
A precious little film, for sure. Enjoyed it thoroughly.
We also have air conditioning in just about all cars and almost all car have cup holders, but not tray tables.
But I don’t get this movie, what happened to the traffic? It wouldn’t just disappear just because they had a control tower, we would still have the same number of cars or more so the control tower would be as busy or more busy than flight controllers are now.
It isn’t just Google that is close to making hands free driving a reality GM too is very close.
Prediction about the future gets much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision. Especially when coupled to a global vision of education grounded in constraining what the mind believes and manipulating emotions, values, and attitudes. http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/openly-admitting-global-coordination-to-impose-behavioral-programming-using-education-and-the-law/
Through GELP–the Global Education Leaders Program we have open admissions of what the US Common Core and 21st century learning globally is really designed to force. With this vision, scientific reality becomes moot in favor the required “shared understanding” achieved via the K-12 classroom and a requirement of empathy and mutual consultation.
When that ‘shared understanding’ becomes the new definition of knowledge, we really are gambling all that makes a civilization work so that the State can increase its decision-making power. This is what I alluded to yesterday when I mentioned the Rockefeller Foundation funded Communication For Social Change juggernaut globally.
I’m jealous of all the backseat legroom they have in the future…
1956, back when we were on top of the world. Technically, we are still on top economically, but it sure doesn’t feel like it. A recent story on Drudge [1] says household income in constant dollars fell by 1/3 since 2003 from about $88k to about $56k. The housing bubble hid a decline that began in 2001. Of course, the deconstruction of the Reagan boom really started before that in the 1990s [2,3].
1. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/business/the-typical-household-now-worth-a-third-less.html
2. http://tjhancock.wordpress.com/housing-bubble-financial-crisis-detailed-comprehensive-assessment/
3. http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0102/morris1.asp
If only by accident, bumblers like Michael Mann are prophetic once in a while. 🙂
http://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/t31.0-8/476395_337058606350348_101913724_o.jpg
Now, if only GM would have fixed their ignition switches earlier, they wouldn’t have to declare bankruptcy again.
I had problems with my 2002 (dreaded SUV) Tahoe, the recalls haven’t reached that deep, yet.
At the turn of the last “millenium”, one year too early, someone published a list of futurists’ predictions in 1901. They managed to miss all sorts of inventions, one of which, the airplane, was only two years away.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/cmip5-73-models-vs-obs-20n-20s-mt-5-yr-means11.png
Isn’t this graph you provided enough to win $30k from Keating?
Was the name Firebird inspired by the GM ignition switch?
I think I will pass on the predigested food…
I’m surprised this quote hasn’t been mentioned before
“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”
Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet
Ahh, video produced by the Thunderbirds team, in conjunction with Scalectrix. Wonderful.
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Actually, there is a Twin Jet turbine car, and that is the Jaguar C-X75. It uses twin Bladon axial jet engines (made in Wales), driving electric motors – so it is a diesel-electric. It is not in production yet, but is a running test vehicle.
The only twin Jet Turbine vehicle in production, as far as i am aware, is the M1 Abrams battle tank.
The Jaguar C-X75.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P4kDD9qt-AA
I don’t know how widespread it was but I’ve seen several assertions that in the 1950s many were expecting that in not too many years there would be personal helicopters at just about every middle class home. Obviously we are still a very very long way from that, if it ever happens. Or maybe a personal VSTOL aircraft at every home…. could replace cars… in a century… or two… or three….
They would have been a little bit closer if they had had only one turbothruster (CO2, energy consumption, blah, blah). Technological forecasting is always an upper limit. They don’t factor in contrary policies of governments and the intrusion of anti-everything, ‘sinistral’ saboteur organizations and co-opted educational institutions which are a huge drag on what is possible. Recommend: make an unbounded forecast and then chop it down by forecasting the ever- present deconstructors. This film will get better with age – maybe another half a century, but drop one of the jets for sure.
Hoser says: July 27, 2014 at 8:53 am
1956, back when we were on top of the world. Technically, we are still on top economically, but it sure doesn’t feel like it.
____________________________________
Simple economics.
If you spend 30% of GDP on welfare, and ham-string your industry with red tape and health and safety directives, you are going downhill fast. Just think of how many Apollo programmes, the US and UK welfare budgets would produce.
Welfare is an easy sell for a democratic politician, as who does not want to be seen to be ‘nice’ and ‘caring’. But you would probably find that if governments invested that money in Apollo programmes instead, most of those on welfare would be gainfully employed, instead of watching day-time TV. And America and the UK would be powering ahead once more in R&D and technology, and thus earning the income and foreign exchange to pay for the standard of living we have grown used to and expect.
Ralph
Every time I see that graph I get a BIG smile!
Is it possible to add another bold line to the graph indicating the mean of the squares and circles?
In the language of climatology, the term “predict” has several meanings making it important for an author to identify which of these meanings is meant when he/she uses this term. In the scientific use of this term, it references a falsifiable claim. The claim that is falsifiable is that the outcomes of events will have the predicted relative frequencies when observed. Until recently, neither events nor relative frequencies existed for IPCC climate models. Thus, the “predictions” of these models were neither falsifiable nor scientific.
This situation may be changing. In the report of Working Group 1, in AR5, the IPCC cites falsifiable claims that supposedly were made by climate models. I say “supposedly” because the data look somewhat fishy.
So, they’re sitting right on the turbines that go all the way through the car? Bet that’s a fun ride.
And then the politicians bought themselves a car company with taxpayer dollars…
“What we don’t have is … uniformed controllers at freeway intersections that sing.”
And it is a travesty that we don’t.
Perhaps they are hiding with the missing heat?
As a science fiction fan, I always find these future predictions amusing. One thing that both these types of predictions and science fiction often miss is the social revolutions – early science fiction envisioned woman as happy housewives using new technologies, nuclear families intact, homogeneous populations, and a 1950’s belief that earning a living requires hard work. Yet the most critical factors impacting our lives and our government are the loss of the nuclear family, the growth of the taking class, the reduction in family size and the diversity of the population and attendant disparate beliefs in government and social roles. Self driving cars will not change our lives nearly as much as control of the government by those who believe everyone, whether a citizen or not, is entitled to free housing, free food, free child care, free health care, free education, free electricity, free water etc. etc.