From McGill University
Researchers from McGill and the U.S. Geological Survey, more used to measuring thawing permafrost than its expansion, have made a surprising discovery. There is new permafrost forming around Twelvemile Lake in the interior of Alaska. But they have also quickly concluded that, given the current rate of climate change, it won’t last beyond the end of this century.
Twelvemile Lake, and many others like it, is disappearing. Over the past thirty years, as a result of climate change and thawing permafrost, the lake water has been receding at an alarming rate. It is now 5 metres or 15 feet shallower than it would have been three decades ago. This is a big change in a very short time.
As the lake recedes, bands of willow shrubs have grown up on the newly exposed lake shores over the past twenty years. What Martin Briggs from the U.S. Geological Survey and Prof. Jeffrey McKenzie from McGill’s Dept. of Earth and Planetary Science have just discovered is that the extra shade provided by these willow shrubs has both cooled and dried the surrounding soil, allowing new permafrost to expand beneath them.
The researchers were initially very excited by this find. But after analyzing the thickness of the new permafrost and projecting how it will be affected by continued climate change and the expected rise in temperature in the Arctic of 3°C, they arrived at the conclusion that the new permafrost won’t last beyond the end of the century.
To read “New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?” by Martin Briggs et al in Geophysical Research Letters: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/2014GL059251/
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Well after a warmer-than-usual winter (all the cold air had gone south over North America) the Arctic has had a colder than usual spring.If this keeps up, will the perma come back to the frost?
urederra says:
June 11, 2014 at 2:55 am
Since urederra beat me to it, I’ll take the opposite tack. As long as average ground temperature is below the melting point, and summer shade reduces average ground temperature, then theory allows for such observation. The willows only need warm summer ground above the permafrost. And ground temperature would be reduced at the expense of increased air temperature due to increased vegetation. –AGF
I personally believe we are surrounded by evidence of current ongoing global cooling or future “sudden” global cooling. In fact, I’d argue some of the “symptoms” of global warming, such as broader temperature extremes and storms of greater intensity and frequency are actually symptoms of global cooling.
Luckily, due to the warming of the last 30 years and the lack of measurable cooling after we’ve been able to enjoy a period where at least the big storms happen with less frequency. But what happens when measurable global cooling does begin to set in and polar amplification results in a greater temperature difference between the poles and the equator?
Why is new permafrost forming at all if the region near the Arctic has already warmed 8 times faster than the rest of the globe? Something doesn’t add up.
not all human can understand that warming lead to permafrost forming.
( this study does not discuss cooling or warming trends with regards to permafrost forming, it only shows the blanket effect of the soil water content and the lake proximity on permafrost rate of growth)
It is a complex understanding, that most bloggers cant understand as opposed to scientist.
The title should have lead people to conclude:
water in arctic lakes prevents permafrost forming, their drying allow permafrost forming by shifting the temperature gradient in the soil.
The soil is conducting heat far less efficiently than water.
Because of receding soil water content (exhanging normally heat with the lake at minimum 0 degree as opposed to the air at -20), the cold air can draw heat from the soil at much depper depth causing permafrost forming.
the air is not Cooler above… there is just less heat available in the soil by the absence of water for heat transfer.
In fact the outside temperature could have been changing from -20 celcius to -10celcius ( warming) and the permafrost would still be increasing.
What is so …. hard to understand? ( except for my poor english!)
[whatever brah. . . mod]
Oldseadog says:
June 11, 2014 at 1:32 am
Oh, I see. You’re one of those pedants that insists that two plus two doesn’t equal five … you’re clearly not up on the new math of science, my friend.
w.
if we relocate the “new” illegal immigrants to Greenland, in 50 years (as the models infer) they can be herding burritos and harvesting tacos. Heck, they can be their own bosses. They would not have to worry about gangs and sex crimes. they can leave behind all the things that make their countries suck. Hallafrickinluha. Hey Obama ya got yer ears on?
The upside of this increased shrubbery growth from warming and resulting increased permafrost from shading is that the methane-release bogeyman can be shelved for the next few decades.
What sort of research paper concludes with a statement of pure speculation such as:
“…The researchers were initially very excited by this find. But after analyzing the thickness of the new permafrost and projecting how it will be affected by continued climate change and the expected rise in temperature in the Arctic of 3°C, they arrived at the conclusion that the new permafrost won’t last beyond the end of the century…”
Call me old fashioned, but isn’t the point of a research paper simply to measure or observe a phenomena and then try to explain it? I don’t really see where off-topic blethering such as this fits in, other than to keep the politicians on the grants council appeased.
About 24 hours ago it was reported that the Great Lakes were finally ice free! These are sure signs of the US in a warming. It’s worse than we thought.
By the way Alaska has been cooling in recent years. This too is worse than we thought. I wonder that those first / first again climate refugees are going to do?
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html
schno1nose says:
June 11, 2014 at 11:26 am
if we relocate the “new” illegal immigrants to Greenland, in 50 years (as the models infer) they can be herding burritos and harvesting tacos. Heck, they can be their own bosses. They would not have to worry about gangs and sex crimes. they can leave behind all the things that make their countries suck. Hallafrickinluha. Hey Obama ya got yer ears on?
WOW! It’s lucky this post was only about ice round Arctic lakes, and not something really controversial…..
Take a look at the ‘Exposed Former Lake Bottom’:
http://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/74543.php?from=269724
First of all, it is not the ‘lake bottom’ but a very little strip at the edge. The lake appears to have lost about a foot, maybe two, of water in the recent past. From that picture, I do not believe the lake could ever have been 5 meters higher than it is now.
Did they check for possible new drainage routes from the lake?
Yet another climate paper consisting mainly of idle speculation. Par for the course.
Disclosure: I haven’t paid to read the paper so I’m basing my comments on the lame abstract (and the two images).
I worked in Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Alberta, and the North West Territories. If you look up a map of perma-frost and the discontinuous areas of perma-frost, you will see that perm-frost extends a lot further south than most people realize, and in places like Alaska, it is not so “permeant” as you may expect. Permafrost is often encountered under willows, areas of deep forest litter (yes FOREST), muskeg and moss in areas quite far south (as well as in high mountains).
It is therefore, no surprise that they found permafrost under willows and leaf litter on the edge of a receding lake. With a bit of insulation, there is not enough heat from the air to thaw the insulated ground and the area redevelops perm-frost. Permafrost goes a long way south:
http://nsidc.org/data/ggd318
http://http-server.carleton.ca/~msmith2/current_pf.htm
http://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/images/cryosphere/fig1.gif
http://www.akhistorycourse.org/images/geography/large/ps9.jpg
With reference to the last link, it appears that Twelvemile Lake (1500 feet) near Willow, AK, and 39 miles north of Anchorage is in a zone of “isolated” permafrost and next to a zone generally free of permafrost. If I have the correct Twelvemile Lake, it is nice and close to Anchorage and easy to study. It should be noted that a large part of the interior of Alaska is discontinuous permafrost. Only the north slopes are continuous and thick permafrost.
Oh nos! It’s not worse than we thought.
By the way, even if it was in a permafrost area, the active layer can be anywhere from a few feet to 12 feet deep. (The active layer is that layer that thaws in summer, and not necessarily every summer. We used to build structures on deep piles and grease and wrap the top portion of the piles to prevent frost jacking the structures out of the ground.
What they say about some lakes “changing” is true and observable from satellite photos. However, most of those lakes are in zones of discontinuous permafrost and there may be many reasons for the change. Given that they are lakes with fish in them, they likely don’t freeze to the bottom too often. Like all things, there are likely many factors.
Here’s a better picture of Twelvemile Lake from the air:
http://news.yahoo.com/despite-warming-ground-refreezes-alaskas-shrinking-lakes-135832189.html
This is Twelvemile Lake’s lat and long, it is on the Yukon Flats:
66°27’06.58″ N 145°32’17.04″ W
In Google Earth you will see it is surrounded by lakes in a similar condition – thousands of them.
Here’s a USGS paper about permafrost in the Yukon Flats area:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3133/pdf/fs20113133.pdf
Addition to last post and prior comments: Many lakes in the north sit on top of permafrost. If you have ever flown over the arctic in early September when it is still fairly warm during the day, you will see ice forming on lakes. When i asked about it, I was told that it was because they were cooing from the bottom. I discussed it with an associate who worked for Environment Canada who studied the north and he confirmed the observation. Whether true or not, it is what a lot of northerners believe. Maybe a bit too many references, but I spent close to 13 years working on cold weather projects involving studying ground temperature profiles many years ago and I still find it interesting.
There are many monitoring stations of permafrost around the world.
And while I don’t subscribe to the CO2 thing, the permafrost monitoring stations show warming, although a few are starting to show cooling (1979-2012). The record is generally too short to conclude much. There is likely a great deal of inertia in a ground temperature measuring system, though other readers hear would know better. Note the lag in ground temperature change under a lake after drainage in the third item below. I suspect surrounding ocean temperature has a lot of impact on many of the monitoring sites.
http://www.alaskool.org/resources/regional/nw_reg_pro/permafrost.html
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/permafrost.html
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/cpc/CPC4-3.pdf (Temperature profile under arctic lake)
http://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/project/permafrost-observatory-barrow
They are called Talik’s
Talik An unfrozen section of ground found above, below, or within a layer of discontinuous permafrost. These layers can also be found beneath water bodies in a layer of continuous permafrost. A number of different types of talik have been distinguished: closed talik, open talik, and through talik.
They are very common in Alaska, Canada and Russia. The ground beneath the lake doesn’t freeze, and when the lake either drains or evaporates, willows start to grow, and the permafrost forms.
“But they… quickly concluded that, given the current rate of climate change, it won’t last beyond the end of this century.”
Why the use of the word ”quickly”? They must have suddenly realised that their findings meant the end of the line for funding. Better not give it a second thought then. Apply the dramatic conclusion QUICK. Phew! that was close.
Eamon.
Alan Robertson says:
June 11, 2014 at 6:18 am
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It was tried on this site, about a year or so a go. It was not a success, and I am pleased that it was withdrawn.
As the lake recedes, bands of willow shrubs have grown up on the newly exposed lake shores over the past twenty years. What Martin Briggs from the U.S. Geological Survey and Prof. Jeffrey McKenzie from McGill’s Dept. of Earth and Planetary Science have just discovered is that the extra shade provided by these willow shrubs has both cooled and dried the surrounding soil, allowing new permafrost to expand beneath them.
From death trains – to death trees! Yes – yes its those terrible trees! Look at all those trees in the top photo of the grass-surrounded lake! A hideous Fangorn forest! The trees of Birnam Wood are advancing toward Dunsinane! The Ents are slouching toward Bethlehem! And we’re to blame! O mea culpa! Who will intercede and atone for our sins, our sowing this forest of apocalypse!
Umm where are the trees?
If it won’t last why not just call it tempofrost?
Mr Green Genes says:
June 11, 2014 at 1:09 am
john says:
June 11, 2014 at 12:59 am
We could also do with numbering each comment, to make re-finding info easy
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They are.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/10/a-sign-of-cooling-new-permafrost-is-forming-around-shrinking-arctic-lakes/#comment-1659735
Mr Green Genes
my comment was No 18
your comment was No 21
So how do you switch the numbers on ???
john