A mystery for you.
This weekend (weather permitting) Willis and I will be visiting the location of this weather station in the USA. Can you guess where it is? I can assure you it is not the schoolhouse at Bodega nor is it Alfred Hitchcock’s summer house.
Note the Stevenson screen housing the thermometer to the left of the path. Click for a much larger image.
The interest for this station is that this particular station might have a very pristine record unblemished by UHI and other man-made encroachments. What we don’t know yet is if it is continuous record since the station was installed.
“But that’s the nature of forecasts, the closer you get to the target time, the more accurate they become.”
So in AD 2100 the forecast by NOAA for that year’s global T will be 1.2 degrees C above the 20th century average?
In case anyone is interested, in 2013 NOAA determined that the annual global combined land & ocean surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). So my guess is 0.58°C warmer in 2100 than last year. Earth might then be just a few years into a warm phase, following the c. 2067-96 cool phase, following the c. 2037-66 warm phase, following the current 2007-36 cooling.
I’m almost certain to be wrong, but also likely to be a lot closer to reality than the IPCC.
Are we sure those gulls aren’t getting all broody on the thermometer bulb and trying to hatch it? What’s the temperature of a seagull’s butt? Watts up that gull?
Thanks for an entertaining puzzle, Anthony. And I agree about the weather. When the report says “STEEP SHORT PERIOD SQUARED SEAS”, thats Coast Guard code a really ugly chop with vertical sides. And the problem gets very large right outside the Golden Gate.
As with many such narrow passages to the sea, the channel under the Golden Gate Bridge is deep. But outside of the mouth, the silt load drops out, and there are shallows there. There’s a dredged ships’ channel, but the shallow spot north of the channel, called “The Potato Patch” by local fishermen, is prone to the occasional “sneaker wave” even on a nice day.
But on a day with small craft advisories and the aforementioned “STEEP SHORT PERIOD SQUARED SEAS”, the whole mouth of the bay can get downright ugly. The waves bounce off the shore both north and south of the mouth of the Bay, and you get very confused seas coming from several directions, standing waves, strong cross currents. It’s what we used to call “Washing Machine Charley”, where you feel like you’re caught in said machine.
So, it’s a day when as Anthony comments, there’s no point in being out there unless you have to … I’ve had to in the past, lack of money is a strong motivative force, but now, I have the luxury of not needing to.
My best to all, especially Anthony,
w.
NW wind around 26 kt, with gusts as high as 32 kt. Patchy fog before 11am. Mixed swell…WNW 9 ft at 8 seconds and SSW 3 ft at 17 seconds. Wind waves around 6 ft.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Peppy and adventurous, but could build to scary or worse. Be safe.
there are shallows there.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Serious sailing grounds. Smart call….cheers,
Willis, could you describe the boat? Power or sail?
nearby there is a bouy
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/32529
a while back Jones did a comparison marine air temps and coastal temps and land temps to address the UHI question.. Result: no evidence.
there are piles of bouy data you can use to compare the trends in maritime air temp and nearby cities.
but then you’ll also find that bouys differ from lighthouses and islands..and lighthouses differ from islands, and islands differ from rural and islands differ from urban
I worked at a radio station that had a weather observation station in front. We took manual reading of the thermometer and precipitation every day. It had been at there for around 40-50 years. We actually got an award for being an observation station for so long from the NWS.
Judging by the landscape and all those penguins this is obviously a photo taken during the ‘Ship of Fools’ daytrip that went wrong in Antarctica
=====================================================================
A couple of years ago I asked my local NWS about precipitation forecast. The answer i got was a bit detailed but what I took away from it was that for 4 to 10 days out the chance of precipitation refereed to the chance of precipitation anywhere in in the forecast area. 1 to 3 days out it referred to the percentage of the forecast area that would receive precipitation.
Did I understand that right or should I dig out that old email and reread it?
PS are those herring gulls in the picture?
Well, Anthony, you can’t really cite this one for not receiving routine coats of “whitewash”. It’s probably caked on there several layers thick.
but then you’ll also find that bouys differ from lighthouses and islands..and lighthouses differ from islands, and islands differ from rural and islands differ from urban
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Steven, it’s similar here come get the data….I’m a coastal sailor around the Outer Banks of NC (Cape Fear and Hatteras). Pernicious greens and dilettante legislators are pushing the catastrophic sea-level rise meme.
I wouldn’t give up on the Idea. Are you going to try this again in the near future? Do you have to get special permission to land on this island – and from who? Hope they are willing to cooperate with your endeavor…
Phil
“””””…..Mike T says:
May 22, 2014 at 11:50 pm
I’m not American, so it could be anywhere coastal, or an offshore island, judging by the low grasses and the fact the only tree is in the shelter of the house. I can’t see an anemometer mast (unless that’s it up against the house, in which case the readings would be awful). The screen is too close to the house, too. …….””””””
Well, I guessed it was on the Farallon Islands, just from the rocky peaks; make that peaky rocks, and the seagulls. No idea, whereabouts in Mexico, Los Farallones might be.
As for the distance between the screen, and the house. I defy anyone to identify from the Temperature records, or the temperature anomaly records, precisely when that house appeared on the scene.
I don’t know about US practice, but it’s usual here for weather stations to have frequent (every couple of years) skyline surveys which show whether buildings are encroaching on the observation area or nearby trees are growing overlarge. This then goes on the station file with other information such as dates of changes in thermometers (type, brand, serial number), plus their calibration data (every 6-12 months) plus addition (or subtraction) of equipment such as an anemometer mast or evaporation pan. All these instruments have siting requirements, such as an anemometer mast should be a minimum of 30 times the height of nearest building away from that building, but thin masts are OK.
Land on the island while it is still above sea level!
“””””…..Willis Eschenbach says:
May 23, 2014 at 11:19 am
Thanks for an entertaining puzzle, Anthony. And I agree about the weather. When the report says “STEEP SHORT PERIOD SQUARED SEAS”, thats Coast Guard code a really ugly chop with vertical sides. And the problem gets very large right outside the Golden Gate.
As with many such narrow passages to the sea, the channel under the Golden Gate Bridge is deep. But outside of the mouth, the silt load drops out, and there are shallows there. There’s a dredged ships’ channel, but the shallow spot north of the channel, called “The Potato Patch” by local fishermen, is prone to the occasional “sneaker wave” even on a nice day. …..”””””
Well the “potato patch”, is actually an excellent demonstration, of the principles of wave “optics”.
There are steep cliffs to the north and south, which reflect any waves coming into that region, and the result is you get interference of several wave patterns all at once. I have sat out there in the PP, in a 20 ft boat
(offshore power boat) stationary, and watched the water in total amazement. It was quite impossible (on that occasion) to say which direction the waves were moving in. The pattern was a total standing wave pattern and the only direction water was moving, was vertically, straight up and down. No lateral movement of any kind of wave crest was discernible.
That’s why, they call it “the dancing waters”. Now it is NOT always stationary standing waves. The sandy bottom shoals do impact it depending on; well damn near everything there is out there.
It is a freaky place at times. I’ve never felt it was dangerous out there; but quite often, there is NO direction, and NO speed, at which it is comfortable, to run through there.
So you just have to go in the direction you want, and pick a speed that your kidneys don’t object to.
At other times, I have surfed through there as If I was at Waikiki beach. (in my boat). Quite spectacular. (and safe too)
Mike T says terrestrial thermometers have to be calibrated against terrestrial thermometers. I thought that too, but Roy Spencer corrected me. Satellite platinum resistance thermometers calibrate themselves by reference to the known temperature of the cosmic background temperature, taken via mirrors.
Monckton of Brenchley, you are correct, except that it’s terrestrial thermometers calibrated against terrestrial, satellite using other methods (although believe there is some ground truthing of satellites against sea temperature data, for instance from drifting buoys).
Why does it not seem to be in the BEST database?
Here is the result for a search based upon Lat / Lon
RE: Joel O’Bryan 12:23 am N37.698119, W123.003536
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/station-list/?latitude=37.7&longitude=-123
Stations near 37.7, -123
Station_Name Months Distance_(km) Earliest Most)Recent
ENVIRONM BUOY 46026 293 16.08 Jan 1983 Oct 2013
SAN FRANCISCO (PBS) 11 26.96 Apr 1995 Jun 1996
PACIFIC BUOY 19 28.62 Mar 1983 Mar 1985
POINT REYES 45 31.60 Feb 2010 Oct 2013
POINT REYES LIGHT STN 154 33.39 Jan 1931 Dec 1943
HALF MOON BAY 271 38.91 May 1982 Apr 2013
PACIFIC BUOY 24 42.56 Jan 1982 Mar 1985
MUIR WOODS 9 43.35 Jun 2012 Sep 2013
SAN FRANCISCO OCEANSIDE 592 43.62 Dec 1958 Aug 2013
BARNABY CALIFORNIA 180 44.88 Mar 1997 Oct 2013
WOODACRE CALIFORNIA 75 44.91 Jun 2003 Oct 2013
MOUNT TAMALPAIS 2 SSE 86 45.04 Feb 1898 Dec 1946
PACIFICA 2 S 88 46.48 Nov 2000 Apr 2009
SAN FRANCISCO ACAD OF SCIENCE 72 47.47 Aug 1951 Jul 1957
KENTFIELD 1292 47.61 Jan 1902 Sep 2013 (Note: BEST cut the KENTFIELD record six times between 1900 and 1990, then cut it six more times between 1990 and 2013 ! )
PACIFICA 4 SSE 338 48.04 Nov 1983 Nov 2012
SAN FRANCISCO 90 48.16 May 2005 Oct 2013
HALF MOON BAY AIRPOR 48 48.62 Aug 2009 Oct 2013
SPRING VALLEY CALIFORNIA 125 51.92 Nov 1998 Oct 2013
SAN RAFAEL CIVIC CENTER 767 52.45 Jan 1894 Aug 2013
SAN FRANCISCO/MISSION DOLORES 1112 52.87 Jan 1921 Sep 2013
(BEST says 1 move and 2 empirical cuts between 1921-1982, then 4 station moves between 1982 and 2013 — I’ll grant the first two moves look legit based upon minimums.)
BIG ROCK CALIFORNIA 109 53.37 Oct 2003 Oct 2013
TIBURON PIER 61 54.00 Nov 2006 May 2013
SAN FRANCISCO /PIER 23 54.46 Oct 2011 Oct 2013
HALF MOON BAY 854 55.18 Jul 1939 Sep 2013
RICHMOND 705 56.04 Dec 1950 Aug 2013
george e. smith says:
May 23, 2014 at 10:26 pm
As with many such narrow passages to the sea, the channel under the Golden Gate Bridge is deep. But outside of the mouth, the silt load drops out, and there are shallows there.
——————————————————————————————————————-
and that is why they never found the ship “Rio de Janeiro” when it went down with it,s cargo of gold bullion and many unfortunate souls.
Anthony Watts says
“Willis is a seasoned mariner, me, not so much. But in a 25′ boat, no point in risking our lives for a weekend joyride. Earlier in the week, the forecast looked promising, now it worsens by the hour.
But that’s the nature of forecasts, the closer you get to the target time, the more accurate they become.”
I agree with you Anthony with the forecasts, yet we get people like Gavin telling climate is not weather and yes they can use a computer program to tell us what the climate is going to be fifty years out. I consider that complete adult bovine fetal manner. Climate is the accumulation of weather events, weather is chaos you cannot predict a chaotic system out more than a few hours since the variables cannot be predicted. It would be like tell me in real dollars how much my house or the one that replaces it would be worth in fifth years. I would expect it to be more, the only thing for certain is I will be dead and gone by then. I could even be wrong about the latter since at this point and time most humans don’t get beyond 100 let alone one hundred and eleven, but medicine could have a break through on ageing but it highly unlikely, just like Gavin model and it many computer runs.
Thar ain’t no such aminal as a bouy. Believe your spellcheck when it redlines something. It’s prob’ly Not A Word.
buoy
Lewis P Buckingham says:
May 23, 2014 at 2:24 pm
“Notice though that none are perched on the screen, so hopefully their guano is essentially absent.”
Actually, there is one perched on the screen.
“This weekend (weather permitting)…”
Well, the weather may not have permitted, but perhaps the climate would?
Obviously with the usual flapping of all those seagull wings the temperature measured today would be somewhat cooler than in the past, so clearly all past temperatures will need to be adjusted down by a 97% consensus of Big Climate scientists to compensate. Being extremely busy with media and politician briefings, as well as grant submissions, naturally they’ll need to sub it out to Cook and Lewandowsky’s raters and no further correspondence will be entered into, in order to protect the privacy of the seagulls and sundry tertiary institutions.