Clouds are the largest source of uncertainty in present climate models. Much of the uncertainty surrounding clouds’ effect on climate stems from the complexity of cloud formation. New research from scientists at the CLOUD experiment at CERN, including Carnegie Mellon’s Neil Donahue, sheds light on new particle formation — the very first step of cloud formation. The findings, published in Science, closely match observations in the atmosphere and can help make climate prediction models more accurate.
In the midst of all the Climate McCarthyism on display, I almost missed this important finding. Of course, most daily forecast meteorologists that watch satellite and radar have known this for decades, but it is nice to see climate science catching up.
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Press Release: International Group of Researchers Shows Emissions From Forests Influence Very First Stage of Cloud Formation
Research from CLOUD Experiment at CERN, Which Includes Carnegie Mellon’s Neil Donahue, Contributes to Better Understanding of Connection Between Clouds and Climate
PITTSBURGH—Clouds play a critical role in Earth’s climate. Clouds also are the largest source of uncertainty in present climate models, according to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Much of the uncertainty surrounding clouds’ effect on climate stems from the complexity of cloud formation.
New research from scientists at the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) experiment at CERN, including Carnegie Mellon University’s Neil Donahue, sheds light on new-particle formation — the very first step of cloud formation and a critical component of climate models. The findings, published in the May 16 issue of Science, closely match observations in the atmosphere and can help make climate prediction models more accurate.
Cloud droplets form when water vapor in the atmosphere condenses onto tiny particles. These particles are emitted directly from natural sources or human activity, or they form from precursors emitted originally as gaseous pollutants. The transformation of gas molecules into clusters and then into particles, a process called nucleation, produces more than half of the particles that seed cloud formation around the world today. But the mechanisms underlying nucleation remain unclear. Although scientists have observed that the nucleation process nearly always involves sulfuric acid, sulfuric acid concentrations aren’t high enough to explain the rate of new particle formation that occurs in the atmosphere. This new study uncovers an indispensable ingredient to the long sought-after cloud formation recipe — highly oxidized organic compounds.
“Our measurements connect oxidized organics directly, and in detail, with the very first steps of new particle formation and growth,” said Donahue, professor of chemistry, chemical engineering, engineering and public policy, and director of CMU’s Steinbrenner Institute for Environmental Education and Research. “We had no idea a year ago that this chemistry was happening. There’s a whole branch of oxidation chemistry that we didn’t really understand. It’s an exciting time.”
The air we breathe is chock-full of organic compounds, tiny liquid or solid particles that come from hundreds of sources including trees, volcanoes, cars, trucks and wood fires. Once they enter the atmosphere, these so-called organics start to change. In research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2012, Donahue and colleagues showed conclusively that organic molecules given off by pine trees, called alpha-pinene, are chemically transformed multiple times in the highly oxidizing environment of the atmosphere. Additionally, other research, including from Donahue’s lab, has suggested that such oxidized organics might take part in nucleation — both in new particle formation and in their subsequent growth. Donahue and an international team of researchers with the CLOUD experiment at CERN set out to test that hypothesis.
The CLOUD project at CERN is a unique facility that allows scientists to reproduce a typical atmospheric setting inside of an essentially contaminant-free, stainless steel chamber. By performing experiments in the precisely controlled environment of the CLOUD chamber, the project’s scientists can change the concentrations of chemicals involved in nucleation and then measure the rate at which new particles are created with extreme precision.
In the current work, the team filled the chamber with sulfur dioxide and pinnanediol (an oxidation product of alpha-pinene) and then generated hydroxyl radicals (the dominant oxidant in Earth’s atmosphere). Then they watched the oxidation chemistry unfold. Using very high-resolution mass spectrometry, the scientists were able to observe particles growing from single, gaseous molecules to clusters of up to 10 molecules stuck together, as they grew molecule by molecule.
“It turns out that sulfuric acid and these oxidized organic compounds are unusually attracted to each other. This remarkably strong association may be a big part of why organics are really drawn to sulfuric acid under modern polluted conditions,” Donahue said.
After confirming that oxidized organics are involved in the formation and growth of particles under atmospheric conditions, the scientists incorporated their findings into a global particle formation model. The fine-tuned model not only predicted nucleation rates more accurately but also predicted the increases and decreases of nucleation observed in field experiments over the course of a year, especially for measurements near forests. This latter test is a strong confirmation of the fundamental role of emissions from forests in the very first stage of cloud formation, and that the new work may have succeeded in modeling that influence.
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New research from scientists at the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) experiment at CERN, including Carnegie Mellon’s Neil Donahue, is contributing to a better understanding of the connection between clouds and climate.
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taxed says: May 16, 2014 at 3:37 pm
This effect is real, as l have seen it myself.
Where l live we have woodland cover on top of a low ridge of hills. …..
But you do have to be aware of the compounding effect of the ridge … I have seen clouds forming on above me on a ridge then vanishing again as they drifted away , there was an almost ruler straight vanishing point….
ROM says:
May 16, 2014 at 5:45 pm
…”It is on this very simple system of slightly different heating and cooling rates and the consequent slightly contrasting in temperatures between adjacent air masses and their consequent changes in density relative to one another on every scale which leads the rising and descending of those air masses as they mix and interact with one another that our entire global weather systems of every type and form are created from ”
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All in one breath, and leaving out the period.
I’m impressed.
This illustrates one local effect which human activity could have on climate, through land use: planting trees does seem to increase LOCAL cloudiness, as observed for many years in Israel. One would assume that some of the moisture in those clouds comes from transpiration by the trees, of water taken in through their roots from the soil. Another factor could be the effect on low-level air currents, leading to updrafts which cool more air to the point on condensation.
None of which has squat to do with CO2, except insofar as increased CO2 in the air promotes the growth of vegetation – including trees – through CO2 fertilization. Which would be a benefit, not an ill effect, of human CO2 production.
u.k.(us) says:
May 16, 2014 at 7:25 pm
___________________
Ok, my bad re punctuation’
Reality;
I guess I rely on the intelligence of most of the WUWT readers to sort out a fast written blog comment which will be forgotten in a couple of hours by nearly everybody.
If some understand and take on board the guts of my message then I have managed a very small achievement.
When one visits the American West it is possible to chance upon interesting sights; such as a river of green through brown desert.
Often filled with flowering plants many of which have waited years for just such a chance, these rivers of green are from storms. Often just one persistent thunderstorm that managed to leak water for miles.
Rain causes brown bits to become green bits. The flowers are somewhat transitory quickly progressing into seeds, but the green plants can remain so for several weeks.
I do not doubt the basic findings but I am dismayed to read that it is controlled lab conditions, a model so to speak.
Trees and other plants may be the source for these and similar compounds but it is a reach to declare tree and morning mists as clouds. Morning mists usually burn off before noon contributing to the day’s humidity which tends to be less than the 100% humidity at dew point during the cooler night hours.
ROM says:
May 16, 2014 at 8:32 pm
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Nope, it was my bad.
Sorry.
Funny how the pro AGW crowd always accuse us of being knuckle draggers and we do not believe in evolution, yet I have no problem believing that trees do and can control their environment to some degree, that they do indeed work to coll themselves, if you don’t believe that just drive from the prairie to the forest and watch the temperature drop. Now if that is possible that forest influence cloud formation, well yes, trees need more water than savanna or chaparral. It would be and advantage for them to emit particles that would add cloud formation. Now it may not work all the time but if it work on a small percentage of the time that might be enough of an edge for trees to win over grass. That age old battle escapes most people comprehension let alone the AGW crowd.
Walt The Physicist says:
May 16, 2014 at 5:43 pm
@Mac the Knife says:
May 16, 2014 at 3:19 pm
(Walt) Yes we must stop wasting our money to support shysters. However, how to set up an efficient science funding system? Current system works as described in Leo Szillard’s “Mark Gable Foundation” story – retarding science and looks pretty corrupt. What’s instead? I would suggest pre-WWII system – private companies do fundamental science for own sake and wealthy private individuals support scientific research in the Universities. This should go with lower taxes. Get rid of NSF, NIH, DITRA, etc.
Walt,
Agree!
Mac
The fundamental rule that cool air sinks, while warm air rises was indelibly etched on my mind as a young man, while I was riding my Honda CL 72 Scrambler along highways crossing the rolling woodlands of S. Indiana on clear summer nights, shivering while plunging into the chilly valleys, and then ascending the opposite hill with increasing giddy delight at the waves of dark warmth washing over me as I approached the summit.
Mac the Knife says:
May 16, 2014 at 12:22 pm
I’ve had a few fairly wicked zaps from static electricity, the combination of dry atmosphere, gumshoe desert boots, wool sweater, and industrial strength carpeting creating enough friction apparently, to shoot a nice arc between my fingertip, and a (presumably faux brass) doorknob.
It seems like a lot of juice, and so does lightning, based on the proposed mechanism for its creation, which is friction.
Prolly all that juice plays no role in (cue kazoo) Climate Science anyway because The Molecule that Roared is exciting photons way too much for anything else to play a role – these are not the energy transfers you’re looking for – and bending and bouncing them around so they linger perhaps a wee bit longer before flying off into space… but heck, (seque into mini-rant) that’s a darn good reason to shut down our industries and let the Chinese build our stuff, and maybe we could even relax MILSPEC a little to make it easier for them to manufacture parts for our weapons systems too.
That’s not a trick segue, btw
Re Richards comment at 10.28.
I saw the same programme. They went on to point out that as recently as 8000yrs ago what is now the Sahara desert was verdant grass land suporting vast wildlife and our hunter gatherer forebears. This was driven by an annual monsoon caused by a large temp. gradient from the hot land to the cool southern ocean (as per Indian monsoon now). As the earths tilt changed…temps over north Africa cooled and the temp. gradient wasnt enough to drive the monsoon rains. In short order voila! Desert. The displaced humans rocked up in the Nile Valley and created the Egyptian empire….As this was on the BBC i assume it was stated the journey was made by SUV’s although I must have missed that bit…Now thats what I call climate change!
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Mac the Knife says:
May 16, 2014 at 12:22 pm
There are some other interesting attributes to alpha-pinene mentioned here : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha-Pinene
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Many ant species collect partially-dried sap/resin found on conifers to place in their egg/larva-nurseries as anti-fungal/anti-bacterial agents.
isnt this research a huge DUH!?!?!
Steve P says:
May 17, 2014 at 12:54 am
Rant all you like Steve P.!
I work with material and hardware specs every day. I’ve worked directly in aerospace and astrospace engineering for +28 years, a period where our defense forces have been progressively diminished and degraded by political stupidity, social engineering, environmental navel gazing, neglect, and failure to develop and field effective new defense systems. The politicians and politically motivated government employees co-opted our federal regulatory agencies et.al. to serve the social engineering that hides behind the environmental ‘movement’. The indoctrination that began on ‘Earth Day’ 1972 now permeates the corporate management structures across the aerospace/astrospace industry and is embedded at all levels through large and small companies supporting the defense and commercial aerospace industries.
The result of all those decades of environmental re-education and social engineering? We are no longer focused on fielding and sustaining the best damn military systems and defense troops in and on the land, sea, and air of this planet. We no longer field new systems that are 1 – 2 generations ahead of our adversaries in effectiveness. Instead, Our Dear Leaders have chosen to accept parity or even 2nd/3rd class capability. Consider that the USA’s access to the International Space Station is now held hostage by Russia because we don’t even have a ‘man rated’ launch to orbit system anymore! We have chosen instead to rely on the wholly Russian controlled Soyuz system…. and are surprised when the Crimea invading Russians tell Our Dear Leader to “Try using a trampoline, the next time you need to access the International Space Station!”
Oh, how low the socially engineered once mighty USA nation has fallen…….
Mac
I have been following this phenomena for at least three decades now by observing cloud formation over heavily vegetated areas of the southwest during monsoonal air flow events from Mexico during the summertime. Not long ago there was an article about the miracle of Ascension Island which was once a true desert island with little vegetation other than mosses lichens and ferns and perhaps some small shrubs. Very little rain existed here and there were no fresh water spring or streams. That all changed a 100+ years later after plants brought to the island by British sailors for landscapes and gardening got loose into the wild. Now the slopes of the extinct volcano are covered in tropical & subtropical vegetation which now create the formation of clouds which also bring rains now. The usual ideologues of political climate change condemned the findings and demand that it be removed because the vegetation is non-native and invasive. The stupid religiously driven argument is that that island should be allowed to EVOLVE naturally if it wants to morph vegetation and forests. Such asinine absurd reasoning destroys any and all credibility about their side of the climate argument. Don’t get me wrong, I do see things going down hill from a natural world health perspective, but there is far more going on that this obsession with CO2s dominating the discussion. I was totally disgusted with many of the ideologically & religiously driven scientists who should utter disinterest in researching and discovering just what mechanisms are in place for creating a moderating effect on the harsh landscape and creating more rainfall through Biomimcry. When you google the names of the scientific critics in the comments of Yale’s 360 article, you’ll find many are more political activists than they are environmentalists or scientists. I wrote about this here. My site is called Earth’s Internet and deals with my interest in the natural world from a mechanics perspective and replicating this to restore such systems and educating young from early on.
http://creating-a-new-earth.blogspot.com/2013/10/climate-change-and-ascension-island.html
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Mac;
SpaceX could take 7 at a time up and down to the ISS in comfort, right now, absent nit-picking from NASA. They intend to do so by next yr anyway, notwithstanding the NASA 2017-8 target. All at ¼ the Russkie price.
Next up, access to orbit at 2-3 orders of magnitude less cost with their re-usable rockets, already well advanced. Soft touchdowns at Canaveral!
But that would mean it gets even greener and the brown browner: runaway positive feedback, floods and desertification!! The only safe places will be in the margins.