While there continues to be wailing about how climate change is supposedly making the weather more extreme, Greg Carbin, the man in charge at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) sends along this graph and says:
Likely the slowest start to tornado activity in any year in modern record, and possibly nearly a century!
And he has the numbers to show why:
2014, with the zero to twenty bin on the far left, can’t really go any lower.
Source:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/
Also of interest, we seem to be in a strong tornado drought. At 152 days on April 18, 2014, the span between EF-3 or stronger tornadoes is the 4th longest span between in the last 60 years. Here’s is a plot of the 10 longest spans between EF-3 and stronger tornadoes since 1953. (Click for full resolution image.)
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Sure, but the first EF3+ that hits this year in a populated area will be a ‘super’ tornado and will be ‘unprecedented’. -_-
Yep. However, let the warmists get one EF-3 this spring that blows away someone’s chicken coop, and the MSM will play it up like the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906. You’ll be hearing about how it was caused by global warming for the next week.
Can we now expect AGW True Believers to begin hyping the EXTREME LACK of weather………….. No?
Since I live in the bottom corner of Tornado Alley in East Texas, allow me to float an idea that could be a possible explanation; and I know this isn’t really “scientific” it’s really more in the line of shade-tree speculation, but;
Our entire winter and spring have been WAY off so far. January was unbelievably cold, February wasn’t great, and March started off with one of the worst and heaviest ice storms we have had in decades. In fact, to everyone it has seemed that in March, we had our typical February weather, and there was no quick warm up – April so far has felt like our typical March weather, we still had a couple nights in the low 30’s last week. Now, 21 days into the month, it finally feels like spring, but it is about a full month late.
How that relates, I think – the months of April and May are typically our heaviest tornado season, as the warm air from the gulf clashes with the cold air from the north over the plains. (November, give or take a couple weeks, is the next worst) But if our weather cycle is off (delayed) by almost an entire month this year (which is sure what it feels like) that may mean that our tornado season this year is going to happen in May and June. This would explain why nothing much has happened so far.
Time will tell.
It doesn’t matter if there are no tornadoes because they are becoming more frequent and stronger.
If you get record snow it didn’t happen.
If it doesn’t rain for 2 days its the worst drought ever.
If it rains for 5 minutes its a flood.
The hurricanes that aren’t occuring are the worst ever.
If its colder its because its hot.
Take another hit off the crack pipe and all is well.
I
This is the image I was looking for:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png
The histogram chart is useful in that it covers a wide time range (68 years) but apparently a narrow class of tornados. 2008 is listed as 341, but on the spaghetti chart.it is over 600, along with 2011.
It’s worse than we thought __________________________ … just fill in the blank.
…and with all the cold fronts too!
Tornado season so far may be slowest in a century
————
Proof of global warming!
/snark (not a Lewis Carroll reference)
Yes, but the heat and tornadoes are in the pipeline.
somebody must be stealing the tornadoes…
The tornadoes are hiding at the bottom of the ocean. It’s the only rational explanation.
@Reg Nelson +1
I love to mock the warmists by whispering, “It’s worse than we thought!”
David;
If its colder its because its hot.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes.
It is the cold before the warm.
😉
It is worse than we thought. Extreme lack of tornadoes is detrimental to economy. See
The tornadoes are hiding in the deep oceans with the missing heat, hurricanes, increased droughts, more frequent floods, 50 million climate refugees…
Last year was the lowest number of tornados on record. And this year is starting out far lower than that even.
This “inflation/undercount-adjusted” chart of tornado counts (going back to 1954) is a better one to use since it accounts for tornados which would have been missed in the earlier periods. 2014 is the lowest on record to date … 2013 was the lowest on record by the end of the year but was not the lowest at this time of year.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torgraph.png
Well, since weather and climate prediction have such high suction quotients, you could actually have negative tornadoes.
Am I right in thinking that global warming would lead to FEWER weather extremes due to the reduced temperature difference between the poles and the equator?
I have heard Warmists talk about increased energy in the system but the weather is being well behaved though. When will it start behaving badly?
The Great storms of the Little Ice Age.
Al Gore complained. I wonder why?
It’s good to see he read about record keeping and maybe observations.
Why is it that Al Gore insists on the consensus and tells us to listen to the science, but then complains when they veto his claims as a credentialed theologian?
Jimbo says:
April 21, 2014 at 5:34 pm
Am I right in thinking that global warming would lead to FEWER weather extremes due to the reduced temperature difference between the poles and the equator?
That is one scenario. Another possibility may be that, with a reduced zonal flow, more Arctic air will be allowed to flow further south. This could actually increase the temperature contrast in southern areas of the U.S. and lead to more storms there. As is often the case in meteorology, there is more than one plausible outcome. Anyone who states they know the definitive answer is either lyng or hasn’t been in this weather game very long.
Somewhat related is a nice blog entry by Cliff Mass on pseudo-science, pseudo peer-review and media hype:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2014/04/is-asian-pollution-intensifying-pacific.html
Damn, Reg Nelson beat me to it. Ya snooze, ya lose! LOL
@Latitude 3:48 pm
Yes, think of the days with “Polar Vortex” and Gulf Coast air masses colliding this year. The temperature gradients across the Mississippi Valley were high. Did anyone predict low tornado activity under those conditions? And if so, what was the justification?
http://www.wired.com/2014/02/noaa-polar-vortex/
The “return of the Polar Vortex” was a “Good Thing” in that it is better to snow some more than rain and melt the thick snowpack and create floods.
NOAA March 20 flood predictions, mostly low.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140320_springoutlook.html
NOAA flood gauge map:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
Our children won’t know what tornadoes look like. Awwwwww.