By Paul Homewood
As WUWT points out, John Holdren is one of many who have tried to link the cold winter in the USA this year to global warming.
In his White House video in January, he had this to say:
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….
We also know that this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer, on average, because of greenhouse-gas pollution.”
But is there any evidence that extreme cold winters are becoming more common, or, for that matter, more extreme?
First, let’s check the temperature trends for the CONUS in winter.
Clearly, on a national basis, recent winters have not been unusually cold. In the last 10 years, only three winters have been colder than the 1901-2000 mean. Moreover, no winters in recent years have come anywhere near to being as cold as some of the winters in the 1970’s, for instance, or earlier.
But this graph only tells half the story. As it covers the whole country, it could cover up regional extremes. As we know, this winter has seen particularly cold weather in Mid West and East, but warmer conditions out West. The result is that, to some extent, they cancel each other out.
So, is there a way we can isolate the warm from the cold, and see whether cold winters are becoming more extreme in just parts of the country?
There is actually a very simple method, and that is to use NOAA’s own Climate Extremes Index. This provides the percentage of the country which have had extreme temperatures (or precipitation, drought etc) during the year. As both above average and below average temperatures are shown separately, we can look at extreme cold weather on its own.
The graphs below cover the Winter months (Dec to Feb) only, with the first using mean monthly maximum temperatures, and the second minimums. The results seem pretty similar.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/1/12-02
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/2/12-02
It is abundantly clear that much less of the country has been affected by extreme cold this winter, and indeed other recent ones, when compared with the 20thC. There is also no trend towards cold winters becoming more common.
What is also interesting is that there does not seem to be much of a trend towards milder winters taking over. Only the winter of 2011/12 stands out in this respect, and there have been plenty of similar years previously.
There has been nothing unusual or unprecedented about this winter. And, as cold winters have become less frequent in the last couple of decades, there is absolutely no evidence to support Holdren’s claim that “this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer”.
Technical Stuff
NOAA give this definition for the (maximum temperature) index:
The U.S. CEI is the arithmetic average of the following five or six# indicators of the percentage of the conterminous U.S. area:
- The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.
And their definition for “much above normal”:
In each case, we define much above (below) normal or extreme conditions as those falling in the upper (lower) tenth percentile of the local, period of record. In any given year, each of the five indicators has an expected value of 20%, in that 10% of all observed values should fall, in the long-term average, in each tenth percentile, and there are two such sets in each indicator
The Climate Extremes Index can be accessed at the link below. It covers temperatures, drought, rainfall and hurricanes, and can used on a seasonal or annual basis. There is also a regional section.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/introduction
@Janice Moore
Thanks, Janice for an interesting and informative comment there.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/18/holdren-is-wrong-cold-winters-are-not-getting-more-common/#comment-1616283
I did do a random check on my theory of less rain/ drought conditions on the higher than [40] latitudes during a (global) cooling period, such as now:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2015/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
which (I know) will last until at least 2038.
I chose Wellington in NZ which lies exactly at -40 latitude which had good rainfall records going back to 1927. I found that between 1930 and 1940 rainfall was about 15% below the average of 1940-2012.
Wellington is blessed with much rain, but for other areas it (i.e. 15% less rain) might well trigger drought conditions, never mind the higher than [50-60] latitudes. Better land use might soften the drama (of health risk, mostly) but the drought, he is still coming. It will affect production. I have calculated that 2021- 2028 will be similar to 1932-1939.
For the farmers who will see (from their own measurement) that from now onward it will get drier and drier, it would be better if they realized it will not get better for the next few decades and that they moved to the places of lower latitude, that generally get more rain in (global) cooling period.
Well, despite of the suffering and misery it will bring I still hope that we are at the brink of a cold-period from the current upcoming grand solar activity minimum. This would be a thorn in the side of the AGW-believers and maybe restore some sense to them and I hope that happens before they cause irreversible harm to human society.
Only thing that is clear is that the temperature data is cooked.
With individuals like Holdren advising Obama, is it any wonder Obama is so badly advised about climate matters?
@Andreas
Remember that my/the predicted drought conditions for the great plains of America will probably cause local warming, seven years from now, at least during the day….
hence their prediction of “climate change” coming turns out to be true, notwithstanding it not being due to global warming…..
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
Yes, normal weather will continue……and climate scientists are now grudgingly admitting this through a growing body of evidence such as data. ie, It sometimes gets cold in winter.
Who’d have thunk it?
Polar vortex in the stratosphere.
As one who has had comments scrubbed from “Grist” in the past and now recently banned entirely for expressing skepticism of articles or comments left by true believers (without any kind of personal attacks on my part, while being attacked viciously when my comments did appear!), I can tell you that facts don’t matter to warmistas.
Though I have ideas about why this should be so and the motivation for it, I won’t express them because then I am labeled a conspiracy theorists of the highest order. Black helicopters and all that.
Of course, being called a racist plays a part as well!!
This is what we are up against and it’s frustrating!
It has been suggested by Andy123 that we start a petition on the Whitehouse.gov page but, I’ll lay odds nothing will come of it because the rules only apply as they wish them to.
I feel we are doomed and it won’t have anything to do with the weather!
Re: “a bald head” (Bush Bunny — not that YOU were being pejorative), but,
… for all the bald guys out there
(I know from close personal experience that, for SOME of you, this is an issue):
Some of the most gorgeous men in the world are bald. In my (and MANY other women’s) opinion: Bruce Willis, Michael Jordan, Sean Connery, and many, many, other men without hair on their heads are SUPER-attractive.
The key: keep the hair trimmed to 1/4 inch or less and,
if your head tends to shine up easily, use a little face powder in your skin tone (apply to very dry, clean, skin with high quality (natural bristles) brush, then, lightly dust or blot with a dry wash cloth to even it out).
So…. TAKE OFF THOSE BASEBALL CAPS AND STRUT YOUR STUFF!
(it may be a subconscious thing in women…. only men can (normally) go bald…. thus, bald men are the epitome of masculine? not sure why, but, when accompanied by a confident bearing and demeanor, bald = “tough”).
(It’s the bald guys with longish hair that look dorky.)
Okay! That’s your Saturday morning beauty tip.
#(:)) <– hair bows are a nice accessory for some women… (smile)
{oh, dear…… I sure hope the Mod can resist the strong urge to "Snip!" this post… 🙂 }
ren says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/18/holdren-is-wrong-cold-winters-are-not-getting-more-common/#comment-1616569
henry says
this is the ozone concentration you/ they are showing?
You can see that this year repeated pattern polar vortex of January 2013.
HenryP
This simulation of the wind (jet stream) on the outskirts of the polar vortex. You can see that this great energy that controls the circulation in the troposphere.
Holdren is an A**hole.
This (pronounced “asterisk hole”) is a science adviser who, through dint of his important office and high-profile public responsibilities would normally be densely footnoted in Wikipedia, in order to provide vital information about his service… but whose casual abuse of truth, scientific reality and lack of regard for moral or ethical rigor in leadership, as in science, and whose ongoing conflation of “service” with “sinecure” has obliterated any logical, reasoned position for which he may have stood in office or in life, has resulted in the purging of all relevant details and the subsequent “blank page” where all his references should be. In other words, an asterisk with no accompanying footnote. Hence, an asterisk hole.
Boy I worked for that. I sure hope it passes moderation.
Sun cycle 25 approaches ushering in the next grand minimum. Hey when it gets warmer like cycles 21-23 the most active in 8000 years the earth got warmer, now durning cycle 24 the least active in 170 years the Great Lakes froze and record lows for 150 years….
Congratulations, Bill Parsons!
Actually, as you mentioned here even climate scientists who are AGW supporters are skeptical of the polar vortex caused by “global warming” idea:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/21/finally-a-real-scientific-consensus-everyone-agrees-that-the-recent-displaced-polar-vortex-wasnt-caused-by-global-warming/
That Holdren or others would attempt to apply colder winters to prove “global warming” would weaken their credibility among the public. How long would this colder winter trend last? 20 years? 40 years? 100 years? And this would have no effect on how soon the warming planet phase occurred?
Recall that from about 1940 to 1980 we were actually undergoing a cooling phase so that may indeed be what is happening again now. It is what led some scientists to propose in the 70’s that we were approaching a new ice age.
If Holdren really does have evidence that Winters are actually cooling that would be an important scientific fact that needs to be understood for an accurate understanding of natural climate variations vis a vis human-caused ones.
This page looks at the average temperatures during Northern Hemisphere Winters month by month since 2007 and shows there is an overall cooling trend since 2007:
http://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/hadcrut4-northern-hemisphere-winter-doom/
Note the cooling trend for the month of December is particularly pronounced.
Does anyone know if this trend has been confirmed for the Northern Hemisphere? Is the same true for the Southern Hemisphere Winters?
Bob Clark
“this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer”
How about “This year’s crop failures are just the sort of thing you would expect when a volcano god is mad at us”?
Makes perfect sense to me….
Temperature were well below normal in eastern Canada this winter … and they continue to be below normal. Just look at the ice conditions this past season … they have been described as the worst in 20 years!
In addition, if you look at the ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic you will see that navigation is going to be very difficult through the NW passage this summer!
@Robert Clark
@JBJ
I don’t want to say…
but I told you so
We are (globally) cooling from the top [latitudes] down
get used to to it
or move (much) further south
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
More climate chicanery, this time from the White House’s “science adviser.” Now very cold winters are due to, you guessed it, Man-caused global warming. Sigh.
HenryP … I am used to it 🙂 In fact, I like the cold!
@JBJ
you don’t know what is coming
this
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2ql5zq8.jpg
will continue from 1998 until 2038,
but we won’t go down linearly, as indicated
Up there you will go down like the trajectory of a thrown a ball….
HenryP … have you ever lived in the Arctic?
@JBJ
I grew up in Europe
but I hated the cold
I now live in South Africa
we were in the arctic (Norway) not so long ago
with the Hurtigruten boat
but that was in summer…..