By Paul Homewood
As WUWT points out, John Holdren is one of many who have tried to link the cold winter in the USA this year to global warming.
In his White House video in January, he had this to say:
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….
We also know that this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer, on average, because of greenhouse-gas pollution.”
But is there any evidence that extreme cold winters are becoming more common, or, for that matter, more extreme?
First, let’s check the temperature trends for the CONUS in winter.
Clearly, on a national basis, recent winters have not been unusually cold. In the last 10 years, only three winters have been colder than the 1901-2000 mean. Moreover, no winters in recent years have come anywhere near to being as cold as some of the winters in the 1970’s, for instance, or earlier.
But this graph only tells half the story. As it covers the whole country, it could cover up regional extremes. As we know, this winter has seen particularly cold weather in Mid West and East, but warmer conditions out West. The result is that, to some extent, they cancel each other out.
So, is there a way we can isolate the warm from the cold, and see whether cold winters are becoming more extreme in just parts of the country?
There is actually a very simple method, and that is to use NOAA’s own Climate Extremes Index. This provides the percentage of the country which have had extreme temperatures (or precipitation, drought etc) during the year. As both above average and below average temperatures are shown separately, we can look at extreme cold weather on its own.
The graphs below cover the Winter months (Dec to Feb) only, with the first using mean monthly maximum temperatures, and the second minimums. The results seem pretty similar.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/1/12-02
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/2/12-02
It is abundantly clear that much less of the country has been affected by extreme cold this winter, and indeed other recent ones, when compared with the 20thC. There is also no trend towards cold winters becoming more common.
What is also interesting is that there does not seem to be much of a trend towards milder winters taking over. Only the winter of 2011/12 stands out in this respect, and there have been plenty of similar years previously.
There has been nothing unusual or unprecedented about this winter. And, as cold winters have become less frequent in the last couple of decades, there is absolutely no evidence to support Holdren’s claim that “this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer”.
Technical Stuff
NOAA give this definition for the (maximum temperature) index:
The U.S. CEI is the arithmetic average of the following five or six# indicators of the percentage of the conterminous U.S. area:
- The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.
And their definition for “much above normal”:
In each case, we define much above (below) normal or extreme conditions as those falling in the upper (lower) tenth percentile of the local, period of record. In any given year, each of the five indicators has an expected value of 20%, in that 10% of all observed values should fall, in the long-term average, in each tenth percentile, and there are two such sets in each indicator
The Climate Extremes Index can be accessed at the link below. It covers temperatures, drought, rainfall and hurricanes, and can used on a seasonal or annual basis. There is also a regional section.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/introduction
Over a year ago, I saw a program on NGC that suggested AGW could cause another ice age. I guess cold winters would be much more common with glaciation.
Wait a gosh darn second. I thought that weather was not climate? Now Holdren is saying that it is? And that cold weather is proof of a warm climate?
And these buffoons wonder why there are so many millions of “skeptics?”
The only response necessary or appropriate to this is to point and laugh.
They have reached the point of self-parody, and don’t know it. Demonstrate that we do, and walk away, face in palm.
So is it a Warmer Colder or a Colder Warmer that we’re going to get with AGW? I can’t keep it straight.
/sarc
More excellent work, Mr. Homewood — thank you for sharing it with us.
And furthermore…
“… is there any evidence that extreme cold winters {are “because of greenhouse-gas pollution”}… ?”
Answer: No. There is no evidence AT ALL that “greenhouse gas pollution” causes ANY significant changes in the climate zones of the earth. Not one scintilla.
Note to any new readers:
95% of the “greenhouse” gases is…. WATER vapor.
(See: 1) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html;
2) http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/07/climate-change-is-dominated-by-the-water-cycle-not-carbon-dioxide/)
Holdren?? One of the guys who thought cold Winters were a sign of global cooling way back….?
I really think that we need a more robust response to Dr. Holdren and his ilk. There is an unused tool, a petition to the White House on their website that could be used, if the petition reaches several thousand signatures collected on the website the White House is required to respond!…what I am thinking is that there could be a petition to the White House that Dr. Holdren’s comments on the linkage between climate change and extreme weather, etc be struck from the record since the science behind them is extremely weak. I suspect that we could get more than ten thousand signatures…that would perhaps create a “wave”
@ John Holdren…
This message is for YOU — LOL!
Get help. It’s not too late. But, soon, very soon, it will be… .
Bwah, ha, ha, ha, haaaaaaaaa!
What a joke is RIGHT, J.J.!
#(:))
There was a time when I believed that people in highly positions….at least in a democracy….could not just make things up without paying a price. Now the scales have fallen from my eyes. You can say anything you want for the most part and get away with it. Holdren has been making ridiculous claims without being exposed as a serial liar in the MSM for a long time. Ditto Obama. I don’t think it was more than a year ago when the President of the U.S. simply made up his own facts about global warming by asserting that the globe was heating up even faster than the experts had predicted….which of course is utterly false. In fact there’s arguably been no warming at all for over 17 years.
Deeply, deeply depressing.
Oh he wasn’t saying he had any actual observed evidence, Holdren was relying completely on modeled “evidence” and the existence of a theory. Take a crappy theory, make a crappy model which matches the theory, and call the results tested evidence. That, in a nushell, is global warming science today.
I forgot to add the crucial step of ignoring reality, which is a very important part of global warming science.
Of course, there is another possibility!
The Extremes index is based on ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES.
Maybe Holdren is right and it has been extremely cold this year, but the temperatures have been so badly tampered with that it now seems positively mild!
Just a thought.
Holdren says “cold spells”. Homewood shows Dec-Feb averages.
There is a difference.
Pokerguy – your statement is ALMOST accurate – to be true, (and let me add, all of the available evidence supports this) your analysis should read:
“You can say anything you want for the most part and get away with it; IF YOU ARE A DEMOCRAT OR A LEFTIST.”: (but I repeat myself)
If, on the other hand, you speak the truth, but you speak a truth that contradicts currently popular left wing orthodoxy, you will be publicly crucified, and very quickly, too.
Singin’ a different tune in 2009…
“among the effects of “unequivocal” warming, concludes the report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Winters are now shorter and warmer than they were 30 years ago, … {says} the report, released yesterday in Washington by White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director John Holdren… .”
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/06/17/17climatewire-us-study-projects-how-unequivocal-warming-wi-29186.html
What a clown.
When you have nothing to speak of in the way of accomplishments, you surround yourself with people that have even less. Holdren fit that bill. I doubt he could get the question “Are you awake?” correct.
“this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer”
so its colder because its warmer …. riiiiight …
wait … MAYBE its getting warmer BECAUSE its getting colder …
So extreme cold is the result of global warming?
Is there ANYTHING global warming can’t do??????
It has gotten to the point that I really question the intelligence of anyone that can listen to this line of reasoning and believe it.
Hey! Just found a little Envirostalinist Employee Training video of Holdren (with trainer) being battle hardened:
Daffy Holdren learning HOW TO SAY ANYTHING under fire
and not bat an eyelash:
Interesting to note that the CONUS Dec/Feb temp chart is almost a duplicate for the global temp chart. Has the main change that has been felt as warming been mainly due to warmer winters?
I remember back in the day when we were promised warmer winters due to global warming. Now Holdren says expect colder too. What if we get average winters? Will that have been also caused by global warming? If yes then it is not science but witchcraft voodoo Climastrology.
Winters in Contiguous US have been getting cooler for 17 winters or since 1998 , but certainly not for the reasons that Holdren states. This recent decline in US winter temperatures is similar to the cooler US winter cycles of 1895-1920 and again 1954-1979 and is due to ocean cycles. They have nothing to do with global warming or greenhouse gases. It is amazing what nonsense science comes from a man who is the President’s science adviser. Here is the record from NCDC/NOAA Climate at a Glance web page . This is alos happening for the Northern Hemisphere and the Globe taken as a whole
CONTIGUOUS US WINTER temperatures have been declining at (-1.78 F/DECADE) since 1998 and each month has been declining at
DEC -1.21 F/decade (declining)
JAN -1.52 F (declining)
FEB -2.77 F (declining)
MattN:
“…reasoning…”?
Cultist lie of the day.
Now let’s all be realistic. Look at the massive problems if the White House hired an honest, intelligent science advisor. Obama cannot function without 1) a working teleprompter, which only displays one and two syllable words, and 2) advisors who will ratify his lies with supporting lies of their own.
It is important to remember that there has be much temperature tampering at NOAA and Giss so the graphs above may be meaningless.
NASA And NOAA Data Tampering Makes Legitimate Climate Science Impossible
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/04/nasa-and-noaa-data-tampering-makes-legitimate-climate-science-impossible/
NOAA Data Tampering Reaches A Tipping Point
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/noaa-data-tampering-reaches-a-tipping-point/
More DATA TAMPERING at the NOAA.
No wonder they are seeing all kinds of extremes. They made it up by adjusting the past.
NASA – GISS DATA TAMPERING.
NCDC DATA TAMPERING.
Please don’t make John Holdren stop, in fact bait him and encourage him. For the average person struggling to make ends meet with high fuel bills and high food costs, the “cold is caused by hot” argument sounds like a rationalization, which it probably is. The more he says the more full of it he sounds. Instead, someone needs to ask Mr Holdren if diverting 40% of the corn crop to transportation fuel is making as much of a difference in the climate as it is meat prices..
“Holdren is wrong” : Prof. Holdren is consistent.
He has been wrong on every single major policy/science issue he has ever taken a stance on.
The claim of cold winters in the US as proof of “global” warming in faulty logic. For example, Germany and northern Europe had a very mild winter, not cold, and very little snow.
The meme Holdern is trying to whoop up is the weather becomes more “extreme” with global warming (oops climate change).
I live near Chicago, it was on the average coldest winter EVER recorded going back to the 1880s.
Mention of extremes is so subject to media manipulation, of tornadoes. That is why it is important for older people to speak out, and say I remember the big tornado outbreak in ’67, and for sites like Anthony’s to show the graphs how hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, are all in the historic record, and are not getting worse.
Holden even recently lied to Congress about previous testimony on US drought by Roger Pielke Jr. When Pielke asked for a retraction and apology, he got a six page White House memo citing one paper. Apparently they cannot read either, because that paper (by Trenberth) also supported the Pielke testimony. Which was simply thatnitmisnot possible to make a connection between drought and climate change, per the IPCC SREX and other papers. It is possible to make regional US connections with PDO and AMO.
Why did Holdren try to trash Pielke’s testimony? Because Obama is using the California problem to pump for his climate agenda. Just when you think they cannot stoop lower, they do.
Contiguous US Winter temperatures have been declining for 17 winters or since 1998 at minus 1.78F/decade but not for the reasons that Holdren states . Similar declines happened 1895-1920 and again 1954-1979 . These are caused by ocean cycles. Winter temperaturesare also declining for the Northern Hemisphere and the globe taken as a whole .
They are just making it up according to what comes along. Obama claims we are undergoing “accelerated” warming as he gives a talk in the midst of a heat wave last summer. Holdren claims we can expect colder winters on a regular basis because of climate change when the US was engulfed under the polar “vortex” this winter. They hope people forget the earlier claims that we can expect milder winters with little snow as climate change continues on.
So basically, the colder it gets, the more we know it’s warming. I think I got it.
When your entire belief system of AGW has been 100% wrong 100% of the time you get desperate for anything that will restore the RESEARCH GRANT MONEY that is now gone.
Is this the same John Hodren who predicted that the Arctic would become ice free in WINTER!!!? Yep.
Is this the same John Hodren who predicted another looming ice age in 1971? Yep.
Is this the same John Holdren they call a science advisor? Apparently so. Quite baffling indeed.
First, let’s check the temperature trends for the CONUS in winter…..
I have a better idea, first, let’s check the temperature adjustments to the trends for the CONUS in winter….
NOAA can’t get a trend without adjustments….. snark
http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screenhunter_273-apr-18-05-11.gif
They make the *hit as they go along.
Jimbo,
Look at the adjustments for Michigan alone.
Hodren was speaking in January when he said “the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak”
Even if you are right it makes his statement even MORE absurd. Cold spells to become more common in US summer? Caused by global warming? But we were promised more heatwaves. Magma, you are digging a hole just like Holdren, the man who predicted ice free Arctic in winter and another ice age.
“As global warming continues?” Do you think Holdren means “when (or if) global warming continues” because it ain’t warmed in nearly 2 decades.
A technical question — If global warming causes colder winters, at what point does global warming become global cooling? Or does it all just average out? If it all just averages out, does that mean the earth doesn’t have a fever anymore?
Magma
Holdren says “cold spells”. Homewood shows Dec-Feb averages.
There is a difference
So now an odd week of cold weather is due to global warming? Are you for real? Have we never had “cold spells” before?
The cold winter in parts of the States has lasted since December, not just a week or two. Yet it is still not exceptional.
Remember what he said:
But I believe the odds are that we can expect, as a result of global warming, to see more of this pattern of extreme cold in the mid-latitudes
The opposite of this has occurred. But if you want to pick a month, or a week, I can still show you the same.
More extreme weather, if it’s a symptom of anything, is a symptom of global cooling, not warming. See Richard Lindzen.
Permit me to assist with this observation from Carl Sagan, which appears to explain a great deal of the discussion here: “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan Facebook.com/ThePeoplesRecord
In the movie Being There, the words of the buffoon are taken enthusiastically as profound wisdom. In the case of John Holdren, the words are both buffoonery and deflection from his real job related to science topics. He has subverted the job assignment into donor group management and left science in the dark as a forgotten subject.
Just today Steven Goddard reports on more NOAA ‘adjustments’.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/04/18/the-hockey-stick-is-real-3/
Magma, check this out. I have made a nice compilation of weather events here and here. It’s just the weather for 1935 and 1936 so don’t break a sweat.
While I agree with his prediction that winters will be ‘colder’… But just colder than the mild winters of mid1980s to mid-2000s which were ‘abbynormal’ and disagree with his cause.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/JFM_season_ao_index.shtml
“a sudden outward slumping in the Antarctic ice cap, induced by added weight, could generate a tidal wave of proportions unprecedented in recorded history.”
Holdren has truly a tattoo on his forehead: NUT JOB.
Perhaps in the brave new world Congress will abolish the Office of Science Policy and the National Science Foundation (give the staff’s a congratulatory doughnut and send them all packing) and forbid the President by reason of Treason at that time from re-establishing them.
Ha ha.
As usual, Holdren hasn’t a clue what he is talking about.
So let me get this straight:
The scientific adviser to the POTUS
is saying that
global warming
is causing colder winters
A Question for the Crowd
Does anyone here remember a single scientific prediction made by anyone on the alarmist side that turned out to be correct? They have been at this global warming alarmism for over 30 years now and I can’t think of a single scientific prediction that has come to pass. Can anyone else think of one?
Thanks in advance for the help.
You have found the proof of their false study [aka grant research] – it has been 100% wrong. Nothing in a variable world can ever be 100% except FAKES.
I wrote that the pattern of polar vortex is formed in the zone of of the ozone in the stratosphere in autumn, when vortex accelerates. The temperature in the stratosphere is not dependent on the temperature of the troposphere, and only by solar activity.
A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme lying being experienced by much of the United States now is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as the global warming hype continues on, in zombie-like fashion.
I think the biggest factor that has fuelled climate change perceptions is the mobile phone and CCTV . These modern innovations have increased the potential footage from various sources a hundred fold. Everyone is potentially a news reporter. People’s memories going back to the 70s and 80s are very in exact. Politicians exploit this weakness and use the power of suggestion to influence the average citizens view of what the weather was like. Every day there are weather events that when portrayed on camera look pretty scary . What people don’t accurately remember this has always been the case. Global warmists have been very adept at manipulating people’s perceptions on the weather to facilitate the illusion of climate change. This in part drove the deliberate transference of the scare from global warming to climate change. Climate change can’t be pictorially rebutted. Climate/weather extreme events occur daily.
That’s why it is refreshing to read WUWT produce data which shoots down the warmists claims.
It is data (uncorrupted data) that is able to truly assist people whose memories can’t quite accurately recall the weather 50 -60 years ago.
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
WHAAAT???
(Sung to the tune of, ‘Anything you can do I can do better’.)
Anything stupid you can say,
Holdren can say more so,
Holdren can say anything stupider
than you.
Yes he can, yes he can, yes he caaan!
(P.S. The word ‘you’ in the lyrics does not refer to WUWT or most of its commenters. It refers to Henry Waxman, Markey, John Kerry, and a boatload of others who, individually, or all together, can say some extraordinarily stupid things themselves.)
Back to basics.
There have been cold winters. There have been mild winters.
There have been hot summers. There have been mild summers.
The difference is that now it’s our fault and we need to do something about it.
/sarc
Any mention of the word Holdren requires a link to this; as the Politically Correct Wikipedia has purged all mention of Holdren’s Magnus Opus “EcoScience”
Webster Tarpley
Analysis of Holdren’s Ecoscience
So it is global warming that is the cause of the ice ages over at least the past million years. Sounds logical to me. Apparently global warming must be a natural occurrence and has nothing to do with man.
As health improves under the ACA, we can expect a rise in cancer and heart disease. Ummm.
It seems we’ve been wrong to complain the CAGW advocates won’t debate. They won’t debate skeptics, but they contradict themselves and each other all over the place. It looks like we could get a spirited debate going between John Holdren and … let’s see … John Holdren!
Sounds like fun, but it looks like we’ll have to bring our own popcorn because according to the models global warming will cause popcorn shortages. So John Holdren will assure us that soon there will be no such thing as popcorn and that’s settled, unless perhaps John Holdren weighs in with peer-reviewed research showing that popcorn kernels will get so large and hold so much moisture they will damage popcorn makers — extreme popcorn.
ren says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/18/holdren-is-wrong-cold-winters-are-not-getting-more-common/#comment-1616178
henry says
yes, but how did you determine that?
One of the reasons that the data of temperatures does not show colder weather in the last few years is that NOAA and others have bee systematically cooling the past and warming the present in their data to make it look like there is Global Warming/ They ｃannot have it both ways and are hoist on their own petard. Steve Goddard is hanging on to their machinations like a terrier.
Winters have gotten much less severe
here along the Gulf Coast since the terrible cold decades of the 1980’s and 1960’s.
Holdren’s “speculation” is NOT Science. Not even close.
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
Really? None of the models indicate any increase in negative Arctic Oscillation with increased forcing:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
so btw
obviously the USA is not global
My finding on a reasonable representative global sample for maxima shows earth following the Gleissberg cycle
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
either way
note that in the USA between 1930-1940 it was generally cooler
(and drier, hence the dust bowl droughts)
From my graph this was expected, from the lowest point in 1927.We will reach same point in 2016.
This means that the coolest / driest period (of the Gleissberg cycle) similar to 1930-1940 can be expected from 2020-2030
in the USA
that is
Whereupon several reporters diligently jumped to their feet and asked Dr. Holden:
Journalists don’t need to know anything about climate science, or much about science in general to know when to ask followup questions. Now if they are so naive to accept the latest Al Gore sermon as a “growing body of evidence” that’s another matter. Actually Al Gore is a growing body, but I don’t think that’s extra evidence he’s packing.
As it says in the gambler — ‘You gotta know when to Holdren and know when to Foldren” or something of that nature … this guy is so deep into the Cult of AGW that he makes Rev Jones of Jonestown look like a dilettante
His next statement will be that Average winters and/or summers are due to CO2 polution
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
April 18, 2014 at 2:26 pm
It seems we’ve been wrong to complain the CAGW advocates won’t debate. They won’t debate skeptics, but they contradict themselves and each other all over the place. It looks like we could get a spirited debate going between John Holdren and … let’s see … John Holdren!
Sounds like fun, but it looks like we’ll have to bring our own popcorn because according to the models global warming will cause popcorn shortages. So John Holdren will assure us that soon there will be no such thing as popcorn and that’s settled, unless perhaps John Holdren weighs in with peer-reviewed research showing that popcorn kernels will get so large and hold so much moisture they will damage popcorn makers — extreme popcorn.
That’s good but you miss the point that there will be no need for poppers — the corn will be a poppin in the fields ….. where the corn will be as high as Algore’s eye …. Oklahoma is OK
“A growing body of evidence suggests”
A marketing phrase. You have evidence. Or you don’t. “A growing body of evidence” is like becoming more dead, or more pregnant. Holdren needs to become more fired.
HenryP says:
April 18, 2014 at 2:55 pm
“so btw
obviously the USA is not global
My finding on a reasonable representative global sample for maxima shows earth following the Gleissberg cycle
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
either way
note that in the USA between 1930-1940 it was generally cooler
(and drier, hence the dust bowl droughts)”
Do you use pre-Hansen or post-Hansen temperature records to fit your model?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/tormented-hansen-in-the-months-before-he-corrupted-the-us-temperature-record/
Before Hansen, the 30ies were hot.
@DirkH
As we are cooling from the top, the higher latitudes get drier and the lower latitudes get wetter.
That is physics.
Locally, at some places, due to the drier conditions, it can get hotter,
paradoxically
perhaps
Wws you are correct. I work in the borg collective known as Portland OR.
@DirkH
Sorry I forgot to tell you
I don’t do models
I use the observed data to do a best fit
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
I hope the sine wave is the best fit, otherwise things are not looking good for us
(looking at the blue line that is dropping)
let us hope my planets arrive in time to reverse the cooling, i.e
something strange will happen on the sun in 2016
I suspect the solar poles will cross over again.
Rob says
“Winters have gotten much less severe along east coast….”
While it is possible that some local areas may be having less sever winter conditions,for US as a whole , winters are cooling since 1998. I recently rechecked the NCDC/NOAA data and it showed winter cooling for all 9 climate regions since 1998 except the West.
United States the past winter was the 34th coldest since 1895 but Europe and Asia did not have a record cold , resulting in slight warming for the North Hemisphere as a whole for the 2013/2014 winter compared to the previous winter. North America is experiencing a cold cycle currently like they had 1895-1920 and again 1955-1979 and hence I see this cooler pattern to continue for several decades These cycles have nothing to do with global warming. Next winter for North America may be warmer compared to the cold one we just had because of the potential for a weak El Nino , but this could mean more winter storms in UK and Europe next winter as El Ninos sometime come with more negative AO days which periodically brings the colder weather from the east Arctic to UK and Europe .
RATES OF WINTER COOLING FOR THE LAST 17 WINTERS 1998-2014 TREND PER US CLIMATE REGIONS( PER NCDC/NOAA Climate at A Glance data set
OHIO VALLEY (CENTRAL) -2.5 F/decade
UPPER MIDWEST (EAST NORTH CENTRAL) -4.3
NORTH EAST -1.2
NORTH WEST -0.8
SOUTH -1.6
SOUTH EAST -0.5
SOUTH WEST -1.3
WEST +0.1
WEST NORTH CENTRAL(NORTHERN ROCKIES & PLA. -3.3
J says:
April 18, 2014 at 12:18 pm
>>>Mention of extremes is so subject to media manipulation, of tornadoes. That is why it is important for older people to speak out, and say I remember the big tornado outbreak in ’67, and for sites like Anthony’s to show the graphs how hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, are all in the historic record, and are not getting worse.<<<
Anthony has a lot of that sort of information arranged systematically, on this site. Look under the heading "Reference Pages" for the "Climatic Phenomena" and "US Weather-Climate" topics. Steve Goddard has also been making a practice of searching for relevant historical weather events worldwide. You need to explore a bit at http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/
Also on this site the commenter Jimbo posts lots of material, some of which would be relevant to the kind of thing you mention. Roger Pielke Jr. puts out a lot of information on weather disasters, and, although I am not very familiar with his site, you should be able to get systematic information there. Also, the links on this site under "Tools" could provide relevant information.
When I get into a discussion about extreme weather, say hurricanes, I now whip out my laptop and say, "Hmm. I think somewhere in here I have a graph of the past century's hurricanes (or tornadoes, or whatever)." Usually the graph doesn't support alarmism.
There are surely other sources of similar information, but having the data at hand sure beats saying, "Gee, I think I remember seeing that there's not really a trend".
Magma says:
April 18, 2014 at 11:39 am
Holdren says “cold spells”. Homewood shows Dec-Feb averages.
There is a difference.
Magma,
Indeed, there is a ‘difference’, Hot Stuff!
Holdren is an socialist seeking political and legal advantage for more taxation and government control of the private sector economy by spewing baseless AGW ‘speculation’.
Homewood is a rational citizen offering data and solid analyses thereof to refute the baseless AGW spew.
What a remarkable difference!
HenryP says:
April 18, 2014 at 3:25 pm
“@DirkH
Sorry I forgot to tell you
I don’t do models
I use the observed data to do a best fit”
That’s your model. Even the simple extrapolation of a linear trend is a model.
Yes true. If you take a sample from a large population and do a best fit it might also be called a model, I suppose
Holdren has a twin: “First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“’Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.’” –Sean Thomas, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/
Thanks, Paul. Good article.
It is good when you can prove your point even using NCDC public data.
I would like it if NCDC retook to updating their traditional graph. See the last revision at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201101-201112.png
Mark Stoval;
“Does anyone here remember a single scientific prediction made by anyone on the alarmist side that turned out to be correct?”
Well….They did predict that; “more research is needed”…………
Cheers, Kevin
thatnitmisnot I love this ;>) now we just have to define it maybe a puppy’s toe scum “A Holdren”
Are the ncdc graphs above using the downward adjusted temperatures for the first half of the 20th century?
Re: Dust Bowl and Drought
1. In the 1930’s, all the reliable land surface temperature datasets show that it was significantly HOTTER than the average (for the period of about 1850 – 2014).
— However, high land surface temperatures were not the controlling driver of the “Dust Bowl” farming disaster — poor soil management/farming techniques were. Perhaps, (I don’t know) rainfall was less than average (it is normally pretty dry there in the summer, however). Even if rainfall WERE less than average, however, it was not the controlling driver of the “Dust Bowl.” In past years, under similar conditions, prairie grass-covered soil did not blow away.
2. In the 1950’s, all the reliable land surface temperature datasets show it was significantly COOLER than the average (for the period of about 1850 – 2014).
THAT farming disaster was caused by drought.
Eisenhower flies over drought area — January 17, 1957
by Weather Underground
3. Re: the Envirostalinist Anti-Farm Irrigation Exacerbation California Drought (i.e., to the extent the drought is affecting farmers: 1) it is not HEAT that is harming crops in CA; AND 2) there would be ample irrigation but-for Envirostalinist protect-the-whatever regulations diverting water)
In 1963, with 42 days with no rain, it had not been that dry in northern CA in 64 years…
“People will remember this drought… .” — not looking like it…
Jimbo says:
April 18, 2014 at 12:48 pm
Magma says:
April 18, 2014 at 11:39 am
Magma, you are digging a hole just like Holdren,
=========================================================================
No, he isn’t digging. He/she is Magma. Magma is melting a hole in the crust to let the heat out.
I hope Magma keeps dropping by as just seeing the name gives me a visual brain chuckle every time.
Steve and PA,
You guys are fired up over the AGW and CO2 misinformation. The CO2 myth is easy to bust – their computer model has been 100% wrong on every prediction . . nothing in the Universe of infinite variables can be 100% wrong or right unless it is pure fabrication and a lucky guess.
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/climate-change-believers-are-using-mediaeval-tactics-to-silence-debate-says-george-brandis/
Seems I recall that last year’s warmer-than-usual winter was supposed to be the harbinger of things to come.
Holdren: “A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
Warmists can grow evidence for anything if they want to. “Oh, you need instant evidence to prove —— (fill in the blank) causes global warming? Not a problem. Here you go.” We are now at the point that they can, without a hint of embarrassment claim there is evidence that global warming causes global cooling. In other words, there is nothing they can’t argue is caused by global warming. Or vice-versa (“Global warming is killing the polar bears!”) “Ludicrous” doesn’t begin to describe it.
You’ve all heard that correlation is not causation, but now we are to the point where virtually any correlation can be blamed on global warming. “Cold winters? Must be global warming.” And the press just copies it down and repeats it.
In the future people will look back at statements like the one above and laugh, unless of course the powers that be waste trillions to rescue the world from a problem that doesn’t exist. Then it won’t be so funny.
I was amazed at the manipulation of data/maps by the govt agencies (both USA and Canada Ice Service) as the Great Lakes freeze occurred. I was following it closely, and their chicanery seemed very consistent with manipulating what we could see/determine to get the desired effect of no big news of record events (like Lake Michigan frozen over completely) … Another line of data that supports my claim that Lake Michigan did indeed freeze over, but they covered it up (pun intended) … Chicago had its coldest winter in 140 years of record keeping as reported by the National Weather Service (average temperatures of Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar) was lowest ever. Another astounding data point was that on April 15th the Great Lakes ice cover was almost 2x greater than ever recorded previously at that date. The upper Midwest/central continent areas did indeed have an exceptional winter … and not just a couple cold fronts.
Yeah, funny that folks who claim; “the science is settled” also claim; “More research is needed”….
I honestly can’t recall the last government grant that promised “more research” about Ohm’s law…..
Cheers, Kevin.
Of course the government would announce this nonsense to uphold their beliefs, and not face the fact Northern America and Canada would suffer most from extra cold winters. I hope that you don’t experience any more extra cold winters for your health mainly and productivity. Your government should take measures now not to rely on the global warming scare but global cooling that will prove a lot more expensive in the long run to adapt to.
I am shaving of my (40 year old well trimmed) beard , I am getting my eyes fixed so no more glasses, that is all because my wife said I looked a lot like this Holder guy. ( She did not know what I was looking at that moment), I did not notice it until when I went back to look. I just about fell out of my chair. And I am not cutting my hair for a year! Although mine is not as grey as his, as my mom always told me,? grey hair? , worries and such. I think Holder has a few of those.
Asybot,my elderly grandfather lived until he was 95 an old sea dog too with a mass of silver hair,
And he said ‘Grey/white hair was honorable but a bald head was abominable. ” His opinion not mine. Keep the honorable image. I find it attractive in older men, but I have dyed my silver hair blondish on occasions.
Warm globally, cool locally!!! LOL!
andy123 says:
April 18, 2014 at 11:12 am
the use of “Holdren” and “tool” in the same argument, nearly brought me undone.
The Obama Administration loves telling Half-truths. And this White House honors loyalty over professional competence. Half truths allow a deception to be foisted on naive individuals who don’t know the whole truth. Holdren is telling half-truths, and is professionally incompetent now as scientist with these knowingly dishonest, unethical claims as he MUST know, that on the whole, what he selling is a deception, wrapped in half-truths.
Michael E. Newton says:
Wait a gosh darn second. I thought that weather was not climate? Now Holdren is saying that it is? And that cold weather is proof of a warm climate?
IME it’s most often “warmists” who need to be remined that “weather” and “climate” are not the same thing.
Except that nobody forecast this a couple of decades ago.
I love this hindcasting business. Can i do this with the stockmarket too??
Ralph
Just to confirm, the NCDC index is based on the adjusted temperatures.
Perhaps we should mention this to Holdren, and ask him if the official temperature record might be wrong!
@Janice Moore
Thanks, Janice for an interesting and informative comment there.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/18/holdren-is-wrong-cold-winters-are-not-getting-more-common/#comment-1616283
I did do a random check on my theory of less rain/ drought conditions on the higher than [40] latitudes during a (global) cooling period, such as now:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2015/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
which (I know) will last until at least 2038.
I chose Wellington in NZ which lies exactly at -40 latitude which had good rainfall records going back to 1927. I found that between 1930 and 1940 rainfall was about 15% below the average of 1940-2012.
Wellington is blessed with much rain, but for other areas it (i.e. 15% less rain) might well trigger drought conditions, never mind the higher than [50-60] latitudes. Better land use might soften the drama (of health risk, mostly) but the drought, he is still coming. It will affect production. I have calculated that 2021- 2028 will be similar to 1932-1939.
For the farmers who will see (from their own measurement) that from now onward it will get drier and drier, it would be better if they realized it will not get better for the next few decades and that they moved to the places of lower latitude, that generally get more rain in (global) cooling period.
Well, despite of the suffering and misery it will bring I still hope that we are at the brink of a cold-period from the current upcoming grand solar activity minimum. This would be a thorn in the side of the AGW-believers and maybe restore some sense to them and I hope that happens before they cause irreversible harm to human society.
Only thing that is clear is that the temperature data is cooked.
With individuals like Holdren advising Obama, is it any wonder Obama is so badly advised about climate matters?
@Andreas
Remember that my/the predicted drought conditions for the great plains of America will probably cause local warming, seven years from now, at least during the day….
hence their prediction of “climate change” coming turns out to be true, notwithstanding it not being due to global warming…..
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
Yes, normal weather will continue……and climate scientists are now grudgingly admitting this through a growing body of evidence such as data. ie, It sometimes gets cold in winter.
Who’d have thunk it?
Polar vortex in the stratosphere.
As one who has had comments scrubbed from “Grist” in the past and now recently banned entirely for expressing skepticism of articles or comments left by true believers (without any kind of personal attacks on my part, while being attacked viciously when my comments did appear!), I can tell you that facts don’t matter to warmistas.
Though I have ideas about why this should be so and the motivation for it, I won’t express them because then I am labeled a conspiracy theorists of the highest order. Black helicopters and all that.
Of course, being called a racist plays a part as well!!
This is what we are up against and it’s frustrating!
It has been suggested by Andy123 that we start a petition on the Whitehouse.gov page but, I’ll lay odds nothing will come of it because the rules only apply as they wish them to.
I feel we are doomed and it won’t have anything to do with the weather!
Re: “a bald head” (Bush Bunny — not that YOU were being pejorative), but,
… for all the bald guys out there
(I know from close personal experience that, for SOME of you, this is an issue):
Some of the most gorgeous men in the world are bald. In my (and MANY other women’s) opinion: Bruce Willis, Michael Jordan, Sean Connery, and many, many, other men without hair on their heads are SUPER-attractive.
The key: keep the hair trimmed to 1/4 inch or less and,
if your head tends to shine up easily, use a little face powder in your skin tone (apply to very dry, clean, skin with high quality (natural bristles) brush, then, lightly dust or blot with a dry wash cloth to even it out).
So…. TAKE OFF THOSE BASEBALL CAPS AND STRUT YOUR STUFF!
(it may be a subconscious thing in women…. only men can (normally) go bald…. thus, bald men are the epitome of masculine? not sure why, but, when accompanied by a confident bearing and demeanor, bald = “tough”).
(It’s the bald guys with longish hair that look dorky.)
Okay! That’s your Saturday morning beauty tip.
#(:)) <– hair bows are a nice accessory for some women… (smile)
{oh, dear…… I sure hope the Mod can resist the strong urge to "Snip!" this post… 🙂 }
ren says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/18/holdren-is-wrong-cold-winters-are-not-getting-more-common/#comment-1616569
henry says
this is the ozone concentration you/ they are showing?
You can see that this year repeated pattern polar vortex of January 2013.
HenryP
This simulation of the wind (jet stream) on the outskirts of the polar vortex. You can see that this great energy that controls the circulation in the troposphere.
Holdren is an A**hole.
This (pronounced “asterisk hole”) is a science adviser who, through dint of his important office and high-profile public responsibilities would normally be densely footnoted in Wikipedia, in order to provide vital information about his service… but whose casual abuse of truth, scientific reality and lack of regard for moral or ethical rigor in leadership, as in science, and whose ongoing conflation of “service” with “sinecure” has obliterated any logical, reasoned position for which he may have stood in office or in life, has resulted in the purging of all relevant details and the subsequent “blank page” where all his references should be. In other words, an asterisk with no accompanying footnote. Hence, an asterisk hole.
Boy I worked for that. I sure hope it passes moderation.
Sun cycle 25 approaches ushering in the next grand minimum. Hey when it gets warmer like cycles 21-23 the most active in 8000 years the earth got warmer, now durning cycle 24 the least active in 170 years the Great Lakes froze and record lows for 150 years….
Congratulations, Bill Parsons!
Actually, as you mentioned here even climate scientists who are AGW supporters are skeptical of the polar vortex caused by “global warming” idea:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/21/finally-a-real-scientific-consensus-everyone-agrees-that-the-recent-displaced-polar-vortex-wasnt-caused-by-global-warming/
That Holdren or others would attempt to apply colder winters to prove “global warming” would weaken their credibility among the public. How long would this colder winter trend last? 20 years? 40 years? 100 years? And this would have no effect on how soon the warming planet phase occurred?
Recall that from about 1940 to 1980 we were actually undergoing a cooling phase so that may indeed be what is happening again now. It is what led some scientists to propose in the 70’s that we were approaching a new ice age.
If Holdren really does have evidence that Winters are actually cooling that would be an important scientific fact that needs to be understood for an accurate understanding of natural climate variations vis a vis human-caused ones.
This page looks at the average temperatures during Northern Hemisphere Winters month by month since 2007 and shows there is an overall cooling trend since 2007:
http://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/hadcrut4-northern-hemisphere-winter-doom/
Note the cooling trend for the month of December is particularly pronounced.
Does anyone know if this trend has been confirmed for the Northern Hemisphere? Is the same true for the Southern Hemisphere Winters?
Bob Clark
“this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer”
How about “This year’s crop failures are just the sort of thing you would expect when a volcano god is mad at us”?
Makes perfect sense to me….
Temperature were well below normal in eastern Canada this winter … and they continue to be below normal. Just look at the ice conditions this past season … they have been described as the worst in 20 years!
In addition, if you look at the ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic you will see that navigation is going to be very difficult through the NW passage this summer!
@Robert Clark
@JBJ
I don’t want to say…
but I told you so
We are (globally) cooling from the top [latitudes] down
get used to to it
or move (much) further south
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
More climate chicanery, this time from the White House’s “science adviser.” Now very cold winters are due to, you guessed it, Man-caused global warming. Sigh.
HenryP … I am used to it 🙂 In fact, I like the cold!
@JBJ
you don’t know what is coming
this
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2ql5zq8.jpg
will continue from 1998 until 2038,
but we won’t go down linearly, as indicated
Up there you will go down like the trajectory of a thrown a ball….
HenryP … have you ever lived in the Arctic?
@JBJ
I grew up in Europe
but I hated the cold
I now live in South Africa
we were in the arctic (Norway) not so long ago
with the Hurtigruten boat
but that was in summer…..
ps
I feel sorry for all of you who have the snow on their front door
I hate cold feet, I remember that,
HenryP … I lived in Nunavut … cold was extreme but you get used to it. Just have to wear the right clothes 🙂
@JBJ
what do you do, if like me, you have sweaty feet? when your feet are wet (due to any kind of action) …….
Anyway, I wanted to ask you, do you know/ remember if Canada was also affected by the great droughts 1932-1939?
Hi Henry … wet feet are definitely not good! There is an article here from the CBC on the dust bowl in Canada: http://www.cbc.ca/history/EPISCONTENTSE1EP13CH1PA2LE.html
@JBJ
I am semi retired, I now run two charities from home
so it is easy for me
when I get too hot/sweaty
I jump in my pool.
Thanks for the link/
I expected this, anywhere inland, at greater than 40 latitudes
I am puzzled though as to why wheat prices tumbled during the drought? One would expect the opposite? Sounds like (US) government interference?
HenryP herring winter in the south. It will be as interesting as the north. We can do it together.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=26.90,-71.92,365
Click Earth.
@ren
I still had a swim here yesterday (solar heated pool) and maybe today as well. But that will be the end of the season. The nights are getting much cooler now.
Do I understand from the presentation that we (in South Africa) must look out for the “hole” that will bring the cold?
HenryP now creates a pattern in the south polar vortex. Please note the inhibition of Australia.
http://oi58.tinypic.com/zxk8wh.jpg
http://oi61.tinypic.com/25jxt2t.jpgRTH
This weakens the vortex and brings about blockade in the lower levels. Check on Earth.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_sh/500gz_anomalies_sh.gif
I don’t want to frighten you guys, but I did a general check, adding the results of 2012 and 2013 to a few of my sampled stations
It looks like the cooling rate from 2000 has almost doubled (just adding those two years)
……
I am stunned/
I don’t know where we will end up
I hope my planets arrive in time?
This is yet another article which acknowledges that the weak polar vortex has nothing to do with global warming.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro/comment.html?entrynum=30
@ren
so what IS happening?http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2015/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
it IS cooling,
globally
There has always been Global Warm— err, Cooling, in East-Asia… To say otherwise would be thoughtcrime.