By Paul Homewood
As WUWT points out, John Holdren is one of many who have tried to link the cold winter in the USA this year to global warming.
In his White House video in January, he had this to say:
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….
We also know that this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer, on average, because of greenhouse-gas pollution.”
But is there any evidence that extreme cold winters are becoming more common, or, for that matter, more extreme?
First, let’s check the temperature trends for the CONUS in winter.
Clearly, on a national basis, recent winters have not been unusually cold. In the last 10 years, only three winters have been colder than the 1901-2000 mean. Moreover, no winters in recent years have come anywhere near to being as cold as some of the winters in the 1970’s, for instance, or earlier.
But this graph only tells half the story. As it covers the whole country, it could cover up regional extremes. As we know, this winter has seen particularly cold weather in Mid West and East, but warmer conditions out West. The result is that, to some extent, they cancel each other out.
So, is there a way we can isolate the warm from the cold, and see whether cold winters are becoming more extreme in just parts of the country?
There is actually a very simple method, and that is to use NOAA’s own Climate Extremes Index. This provides the percentage of the country which have had extreme temperatures (or precipitation, drought etc) during the year. As both above average and below average temperatures are shown separately, we can look at extreme cold weather on its own.
The graphs below cover the Winter months (Dec to Feb) only, with the first using mean monthly maximum temperatures, and the second minimums. The results seem pretty similar.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/1/12-02
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/2/12-02
It is abundantly clear that much less of the country has been affected by extreme cold this winter, and indeed other recent ones, when compared with the 20thC. There is also no trend towards cold winters becoming more common.
What is also interesting is that there does not seem to be much of a trend towards milder winters taking over. Only the winter of 2011/12 stands out in this respect, and there have been plenty of similar years previously.
There has been nothing unusual or unprecedented about this winter. And, as cold winters have become less frequent in the last couple of decades, there is absolutely no evidence to support Holdren’s claim that “this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer”.
Technical Stuff
NOAA give this definition for the (maximum temperature) index:
The U.S. CEI is the arithmetic average of the following five or six# indicators of the percentage of the conterminous U.S. area:
- The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.
And their definition for “much above normal”:
In each case, we define much above (below) normal or extreme conditions as those falling in the upper (lower) tenth percentile of the local, period of record. In any given year, each of the five indicators has an expected value of 20%, in that 10% of all observed values should fall, in the long-term average, in each tenth percentile, and there are two such sets in each indicator
The Climate Extremes Index can be accessed at the link below. It covers temperatures, drought, rainfall and hurricanes, and can used on a seasonal or annual basis. There is also a regional section.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/introduction
“a sudden outward slumping in the Antarctic ice cap, induced by added weight, could generate a tidal wave of proportions unprecedented in recorded history.”
Holdren has truly a tattoo on his forehead: NUT JOB.
Perhaps in the brave new world Congress will abolish the Office of Science Policy and the National Science Foundation (give the staff’s a congratulatory doughnut and send them all packing) and forbid the President by reason of Treason at that time from re-establishing them.
Ha ha.
As usual, Holdren hasn’t a clue what he is talking about.
So let me get this straight:
The scientific adviser to the POTUS
is saying that
global warming
is causing colder winters
A Question for the Crowd
Does anyone here remember a single scientific prediction made by anyone on the alarmist side that turned out to be correct? They have been at this global warming alarmism for over 30 years now and I can’t think of a single scientific prediction that has come to pass. Can anyone else think of one?
Thanks in advance for the help.
You have found the proof of their false study [aka grant research] – it has been 100% wrong. Nothing in a variable world can ever be 100% except FAKES.
I wrote that the pattern of polar vortex is formed in the zone of of the ozone in the stratosphere in autumn, when vortex accelerates. The temperature in the stratosphere is not dependent on the temperature of the troposphere, and only by solar activity.
A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme lying being experienced by much of the United States now is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as the global warming hype continues on, in zombie-like fashion.
I think the biggest factor that has fuelled climate change perceptions is the mobile phone and CCTV . These modern innovations have increased the potential footage from various sources a hundred fold. Everyone is potentially a news reporter. People’s memories going back to the 70s and 80s are very in exact. Politicians exploit this weakness and use the power of suggestion to influence the average citizens view of what the weather was like. Every day there are weather events that when portrayed on camera look pretty scary . What people don’t accurately remember this has always been the case. Global warmists have been very adept at manipulating people’s perceptions on the weather to facilitate the illusion of climate change. This in part drove the deliberate transference of the scare from global warming to climate change. Climate change can’t be pictorially rebutted. Climate/weather extreme events occur daily.
That’s why it is refreshing to read WUWT produce data which shoots down the warmists claims.
It is data (uncorrupted data) that is able to truly assist people whose memories can’t quite accurately recall the weather 50 -60 years ago.
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
WHAAAT???
(Sung to the tune of, ‘Anything you can do I can do better’.)
Anything stupid you can say,
Holdren can say more so,
Holdren can say anything stupider
than you.
Yes he can, yes he can, yes he caaan!
(P.S. The word ‘you’ in the lyrics does not refer to WUWT or most of its commenters. It refers to Henry Waxman, Markey, John Kerry, and a boatload of others who, individually, or all together, can say some extraordinarily stupid things themselves.)
Back to basics.
There have been cold winters. There have been mild winters.
There have been hot summers. There have been mild summers.
The difference is that now it’s our fault and we need to do something about it.
/sarc
Any mention of the word Holdren requires a link to this; as the Politically Correct Wikipedia has purged all mention of Holdren’s Magnus Opus “EcoScience”
Webster Tarpley
Analysis of Holdren’s Ecoscience
So it is global warming that is the cause of the ice ages over at least the past million years. Sounds logical to me. Apparently global warming must be a natural occurrence and has nothing to do with man.
As health improves under the ACA, we can expect a rise in cancer and heart disease. Ummm.
It seems we’ve been wrong to complain the CAGW advocates won’t debate. They won’t debate skeptics, but they contradict themselves and each other all over the place. It looks like we could get a spirited debate going between John Holdren and … let’s see … John Holdren!
Sounds like fun, but it looks like we’ll have to bring our own popcorn because according to the models global warming will cause popcorn shortages. So John Holdren will assure us that soon there will be no such thing as popcorn and that’s settled, unless perhaps John Holdren weighs in with peer-reviewed research showing that popcorn kernels will get so large and hold so much moisture they will damage popcorn makers — extreme popcorn.
ren says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/18/holdren-is-wrong-cold-winters-are-not-getting-more-common/#comment-1616178
henry says
yes, but how did you determine that?
One of the reasons that the data of temperatures does not show colder weather in the last few years is that NOAA and others have bee systematically cooling the past and warming the present in their data to make it look like there is Global Warming/ They ｃannot have it both ways and are hoist on their own petard. Steve Goddard is hanging on to their machinations like a terrier.
Winters have gotten much less severe
here along the Gulf Coast since the terrible cold decades of the 1980’s and 1960’s.
Holdren’s “speculation” is NOT Science. Not even close.
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
Really? None of the models indicate any increase in negative Arctic Oscillation with increased forcing:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
so btw
obviously the USA is not global
My finding on a reasonable representative global sample for maxima shows earth following the Gleissberg cycle
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
either way
note that in the USA between 1930-1940 it was generally cooler
(and drier, hence the dust bowl droughts)
From my graph this was expected, from the lowest point in 1927.We will reach same point in 2016.
This means that the coolest / driest period (of the Gleissberg cycle) similar to 1930-1940 can be expected from 2020-2030
in the USA
that is
Whereupon several reporters diligently jumped to their feet and asked Dr. Holden:
Journalists don’t need to know anything about climate science, or much about science in general to know when to ask followup questions. Now if they are so naive to accept the latest Al Gore sermon as a “growing body of evidence” that’s another matter. Actually Al Gore is a growing body, but I don’t think that’s extra evidence he’s packing.
As it says in the gambler — ‘You gotta know when to Holdren and know when to Foldren” or something of that nature … this guy is so deep into the Cult of AGW that he makes Rev Jones of Jonestown look like a dilettante
His next statement will be that Average winters and/or summers are due to CO2 polution
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
April 18, 2014 at 2:26 pm
It seems we’ve been wrong to complain the CAGW advocates won’t debate. They won’t debate skeptics, but they contradict themselves and each other all over the place. It looks like we could get a spirited debate going between John Holdren and … let’s see … John Holdren!
Sounds like fun, but it looks like we’ll have to bring our own popcorn because according to the models global warming will cause popcorn shortages. So John Holdren will assure us that soon there will be no such thing as popcorn and that’s settled, unless perhaps John Holdren weighs in with peer-reviewed research showing that popcorn kernels will get so large and hold so much moisture they will damage popcorn makers — extreme popcorn.
That’s good but you miss the point that there will be no need for poppers — the corn will be a poppin in the fields ….. where the corn will be as high as Algore’s eye …. Oklahoma is OK
“A growing body of evidence suggests”
A marketing phrase. You have evidence. Or you don’t. “A growing body of evidence” is like becoming more dead, or more pregnant. Holdren needs to become more fired.
HenryP says:
April 18, 2014 at 2:55 pm
“so btw
obviously the USA is not global
My finding on a reasonable representative global sample for maxima shows earth following the Gleissberg cycle
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
either way
note that in the USA between 1930-1940 it was generally cooler
(and drier, hence the dust bowl droughts)”
Do you use pre-Hansen or post-Hansen temperature records to fit your model?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/tormented-hansen-in-the-months-before-he-corrupted-the-us-temperature-record/
Before Hansen, the 30ies were hot.
@DirkH
As we are cooling from the top, the higher latitudes get drier and the lower latitudes get wetter.
That is physics.
Locally, at some places, due to the drier conditions, it can get hotter,
paradoxically
perhaps
Wws you are correct. I work in the borg collective known as Portland OR.