A new paper in Nature from the Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, makes a somewhat surprising claim about predicting ENSO events. This is probably one of the shortest abstracts ever, but then, there’s not much to be said beyond this simple statement.
Climate science: A high bar for decadal forecasts of El Niño
- Nature 507,437–439 (27 March 2014) doi:10.1038/507437a
- Published online
- 26 March 2014
Climate simulations suggest that multi-decadal periods of high and low variability in the phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be entirely unpredictable.
I suppose this explains why this model has been doing so poorly for the last year in predicting a new El Niño, it has been showing an El Niño just months away for almost a year.
NINO 3.4 SST Anomalies Forecast
Will we see an El Niño this year? Only chaos knows for sure.
More at the WUWT ENSO page