Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal
Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:
I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.
and
[The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least.
Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps:
Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF:
ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal.
He added:
Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March
…
If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
Magma:
What if we measured the area affected in terms of Manhattans? Would you be interested then?
Awww shucks… just when IS global warming going to come, eh?
The world is down 2.3F in the last two decades. I wonder how much more of the global warming we can take?
Look how warm the Arctic is, though. A quick look at your Sea Ice Page shows it has been unusually warm all winter. That’s not surprising, I guess – some sort of “conservation of anomaly” law at work.
D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:36 pm
> “Temperature & Anomoly” if I read the chart heading correctly. It appears the colors are the temperature, the iso-lines are the anomaly.
Nope, in all three the color is the anomaly in C° and the lines are either temperature (see how it gets warmer to the south) or wind streamlines.
Me, I’m hoping for another subzero night, like tonight? That will be the latest subzero reading of the season. 🙂 I’ll have more about local temps after dinner.
Aren’t we a little overdue for another year without a summer , like 1816? Wide spread famine , skyrocketing food prices, damaged crops deaths in the thousands? All we really need is a bigger story than CAGW to put it to bed.
Just a quick question….will this projected Polar Vortex incursion into eastern/ northen states produce the never ending train of atlantic storms crashing into the UK again…particularily my part of south west Wales. If the answer is Yes then please stop the world as I want to get off….been there, experienced that…didnt like it.
Michael D
Look how warm the Arctic is, though. A quick look at your Sea Ice Page shows it has been unusually warm all winter. That’s not surprising, I guess – some sort of “conservation of anomaly” law at work.
It’s very simple.
The circulation that brings Arctic air south, also sends warm air north.
Because of the kinetic energy involved, Arctic temps tend to rise by much more than they fall at lower latitudes. On a simple averaging system, this means that global temps would rise, but in reality the energy has not changed.
Reblogged this on woollylocks and commented:
WUWT is the real deal. Thanks for the great information!
On Lucia’s thread about DC’s comments, Neil J. King (a Skeptical Science team member) made a laughable mistake.
He dug out his old physics book and used a few equations about energy distribution among molecules, but they were equations that did not take into account the force of gravity. That was the very thing we were talking about, namely how gravity brings about an autonomous thermal gradient (aka lapse rate) in any planet’s troposphere.
The relevance of all this to climate change is that, firstly, Skeptical Science is stumped, and of course the greenhouse is smashed.
This is also been picked up on the jet stream forecast charts as well.
It looks like this Arctic blast will be mostly confined to the NE of the USA. As there is a jet stream forming in the eastern Pacific and will flow across the middle of the USA, so is likely to keep the cold air in the NE. But it likely that there will more heavy snow and rain, as this jet draws moist air off the Pacific.
Reading the above comments made wonder, how many atomic bombs are we going to lose?
The worst snowstorms in my area of Michigan comes when it warms from a deep cold spell. So far this year, we’ve had no big storms, but a whole lot of very cold air, and those maps puts us right smack dab in the middle of another big freeze. Gee, I can’t wait. No sight of Robins, and the ducks that dive for food in lakes are dying in large numbers. Strange how global warming works.
Right now the river near us is like glass; almost makes me want to dig out the ice skates but they won’t fit me anyway. There are quite a few out there skating, reminds me of Hans Brinker 🙂
In 1994/1995 we had lots of ice into April, then a very hot summer (104 in the U.P.). I wonder if that will repeat this year.
There’s quite a bit of warmer air rotating into the arctic, behind each wave of polar cold that slides down across Canada and skates into the US. As a result, Arctic ice coverage is rather ‘low’ this spring….
Is this how a glaciation age starts? With a warmer arctic allowing more water evaporation and transport onto a cold North American continent? Could the Bering Sea, Arctic ocean, Hudson Bay, et.al be the ultimate ‘lake effect snow’ machine, that feeds the continent engulfing glacier?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Michael D says: @ur momisugly March 17, 2014 at 4:00 pm
Look how warm the Arctic is, though…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And all that ‘Warm’ just got tossed into outer space.
Of more interest was the entire 2013 summer was below ‘Normal’ in temp.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png
WelshSkeptic@ur momisugly
Looking at the jet stream forecast chart.
It looks at there will be high pressure sitting very near to the UK, when this is forecast to happen.
So hopefully it will shied us from the worst of the bad weather.
P.S. Going geo-thermal in 2010 has really paid off for us. Our highest heating (includes hot water) was $90.31.
Mac the Knife says: @ur momisugly March 17, 2014 at 4:33 pm
….Is this how a glaciation age starts? …
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the same ‘shape’ as the polar express….
http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/martin1/lauren.jpg
Could it be possible that topical warm air rushing towards the poles bring moisture and warmth to these regions as part of a self regulating system for the planet? So cold air gets shoved towards the tropics and there in lies the rub… weather! Storms, rains, snows etc, and all the while solar radiance is warming on the day side and radiant cooling occurs on the night side of the planet. So why would warm intrusions to the poles be anomolous? Seems perfectly normal. What is interesting to me is the idea of feedback loops where say more heat gerts radiated out to space than is trapped in the oceans or atmosphere, for this to occur we need lots of clear night time skys over vast areas of earth. Counter to this idea is vast warm low level cloud cover and sluggish trade winds and I bet surface temps spike. The winter here in the Catskills of NY has been brutal. Many old timers don’t recall quite as relentless a winter with sustained cold. Snow yes. We get lots of snow here historically. My maple trees are just getting going with sap and by this time I am usually done with sugaring. And another polar vortex , yikes! Many folks here ran out of firewood, wood cutters like me couldn’t get out and cut untill just a few days ago. My body is tired from just trying to keep warm. I am impressed with this winter. WOW
I picked a hell of a time to move to the mountains of Virginia….
I’m thinking of suing Al Gore et al for False Advertising and Fraud.
We were promised Global Warming and I was looking forward to living life a bit tropical instead of polar. I could’ve moved to Florida but NOOOOOO, I believed them when they said the Earth was getting warmer and would keep on getting warmer. More fool I.
Who do I apply to or where do I go to complain?
BUT DID THEY LISTEN IN 2002 WHEN I PREDICTED GLOBAL COOLING?
NOOOOOOO !!!
🙂
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/07/jli-final-forecasts-for-2014/#comment-1585141
I cannot make short term predictions of weather / temperature.
I can only make long term predictions – about 15- 20 years or more. 🙂
I wrote in an article in the Calgary Herald published on September 1, 2002:
On global cooling:
“If (as I believe) solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
When I wrote this in 2002, SC 24 was predicted to be strong, and we now know it is quite weak.
I still think my 2002 global cooling prediction will materialize, although I wonder if this cooling will start a bit sooner than 2020.
********
in maine here, looks like its jacket weather.
Tim says regards possible greater tornado season?
“This requires warm air from somewhere!”
As the sun marches northward and warms the land in creates low that draws warm moist air from the gulf. In the southern states tornado season typically is the greatest starting in March, as the season progress warm air can migrate further north. Cold air provides the lift for the warm air masses, (not Trenberth’s warmer and wetter world.) Cold air migrates faster when the ground is cold and snow covered, and that intensifies the clash. I would suspect that the colder and snowier ground from this late winter could induce more tornadoes, similar to last year and the Moore OK tornado. In contrast the warm dry winter during the drought 2010-11 witnessed a dearth of tornados. The seasonal drivers of warm air moving northward should be similar each year, but I suspect intensity of the clash of air masses will be driven by how easily cold air moves southward. I am not a meteorologist, but based on observations and my limited knowledge, that is what I am suspecting.
Allan M.R. MacRae says:” I still think my 2002 global cooling prediction will materialize, although I wonder if this cooling will start a bit sooner than 2020.”
I too think the sun is the main driver but it is coupled to ocean oscillations that alternately absorb heat and then ventilate it two decades or more later. I too predicted we will see colder winters over the next 2 decades as the sun’s activity declines, but I think the real natural definitive experiment will be when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation reverts back to its warm, heat ventilating cycle with more El Ninos. If The sun is the driver of global temps, then during that warm PDO cycle will should temperatures that remain below the plateau of the current hiatus. If CO2 is the driver then we will need to see even greater temperatures. Nature is providing the requisite experiment to test the competing hypotheses.