Arctic blast coming to Eastern US – likely to be the coldest opening to calendar spring in at least 50 years

Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal

Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:

I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.

and

[The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least.

Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps:

NCEP_GFS_ensMean_Mar24

Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF:

ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal.

ECMWF_temp_anomaly_Mar27

He added:

Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March

If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Canadian_model_mar24

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Jimmy Haigh.

CO2, eh?

Question for Aanyone at Weatherbell: Because tornadoes are intensified by the clash of cold and dry vs warm and moist, could we expect a more active tornado season?

Gerry

Um … trying to say this nicely .. having an interesting title day …
[So, what title is more clear? … “Likely to be the Coldest Spring Equinox in the Past 50 Years” … instead? Mod]

That first one from Ryan Maue would imply the possibility of some rain in California.

albertalad

Well, Kerry did say Global Warming was the most important weapon of mass destruction a week or so ago. Meanwhile, the Malaysian jet and Putin kinda showed amateur hour very nicely. Now here comes the next Arctic front as if slapping Kerry upside the head all over again. Karma brother, karma.

Gunga Din

Can I vote for the one that’s furthest from where I live?
(Maybe if I burn a couple of tree rings….?8-)

News like this leaves me conflicted. On the one hand I like to see the cold prove that CO2 does not drive climate and that the “we will all burn” scare is just a scam — but on the other hand I like warm and would love to see about 4C of warming over then next few decades.
Mankind’s tiny, meager yearly addition to a tiny trace gas has nothing to do with the climate. But the climate will cause increases in CO2 as it warms. What I am not conflicted on is that I would love to see the CO2 levels hit 1500 ppm and help green the planet.
I guess I am one of those that the philosophy professor in the news wants to round up and execute. 🙁

Tim

Jim Steele
“Question for anyone at Weatherbell: Because tornadoes are intensified by the clash of cold and dry vs warm and moist, could we expect a more active tornado season?”
This requires warm air from somewhere!

MattS

I live in Wisconsin. All three of those forecasts suck.

D.J. Hawkins

I dunno, weather report tor the next 10 days is in the low to high 40’s (F) in my area (New Jersey). Two days will tap the 30’s. Weatherbell map says (if I read correctly) about -17C, or about -1.4F. How is the 850 hPa related to surface temps?

Paul Westhaver

I use oil to heat my house.
This year has been %#@&*1!!! expensive.
I finished insulating my basement this fall. $1600.00. Based on what my neighbors have spent on energy, as a percentage over last year, I saved no money. The energy demand for my house was up about $1600.00 this year.
Some neighbors have energy increases of 20-40% this year. I am at about 0% having insulated 163 feet of basement wall.

John Boles

The roads here in SE Michigan are just shredded after this winter, I need some warm weather!!

Magma

So global = central and northeastern North America?
Thanks for clearing that up.

Paul Westhaver

Gerry and Mod,
Gerry says:
March 17, 2014 at 2:40 pm
Um … trying to say this nicely .. having an interesting title day …
[So, what title is more clear? … “Likely to be the Coldest Spring Equinox in the Past 50 Years” … instead? Mod]
__________________________
How about… Beware the Ides of March.

Jeff L

D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
“How is the 850 hPa related to surface temps?”
—————————————
850 hPa is on average about ~ 5000 ft a.s.l.
Average lapse rate ~ 3.5 deg F per 1000 ft.
NJ elevation – 500 ft (for the puposes of this exercise
Surface temp ~ 16 F warmer than 850 hPa
So, about -1.4 F + 16 = ~~ + 15 F
…. lots of assumptions in this little calculation, but that will get you in the range

Anything is possible

D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
This is a really good site :
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/
Type in your location, and go to the 16-day forecast. It prints out a table showing predicted temperatures at different levels in the atmosphere. That should answer your question.

redc1c4

yer all gonna die!!!!
can we have your water? 😉

trafamadore

“If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.”
1. You don’t need open water for lake effect. It’s just a little better with 32 degree water than 32 degree ice.
2. Lake Mich lake effect in the fingers of the LP is pretty wimpy compared to the lk erie and — even worse — lk ontario lk effects, both going the long ways of the lakes.

Dave

You people have it all wrong. Global warming is still with us. This has been the 50th warmest opening of Spring in the past 50 years.

Ben

Anthony Fyi – Typo
[Done. Thank you. Mod]

John F. Hultquist

D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
I dunno, . . .

Anomaly in Celsius; 1 C. degree = 1.8 F. degree [ 9/5 ]
Charts show the departure from “normal” temperature. So, what’s “normal” or “climatology” for your local site?

D.J. Hawkins

@Anything is possible says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:19 pm
Way cool, thanks! I have no idea what I might need it for, but that one is getting bookmarked! They’re showing slightly lower temps than AccuWeather, so I guess it’s wait and see.

John F. Hultquist

Related to my comment just above —
In these charts, “normals” are in green:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&wfo=pdt

D.J. Hawkins

John F. Hultquist says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:28 pm
D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
I dunno, . . . ”
Anomaly in Celsius; 1 C. degree = 1.8 F. degree [ 9/5 ]
Charts show the departure from “normal” temperature. So, what’s “normal” or “climatology” for your local site?

Temperature & Anomoly” if I read the chart heading correctly. It appears the colors are the temperature, the iso-lines are the anomaly.

clipe

Magma says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:16 pm

So global = central and northeastern North America?
Thanks for clearing that up.

http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/03/guessing-games-climate-science/
Back at you.

HGW xx/7

Magma:
What if we measured the area affected in terms of Manhattans? Would you be interested then?

JimS

Awww shucks… just when IS global warming going to come, eh?

Pat

The world is down 2.3F in the last two decades. I wonder how much more of the global warming we can take?

Michael D

Look how warm the Arctic is, though. A quick look at your Sea Ice Page shows it has been unusually warm all winter. That’s not surprising, I guess – some sort of “conservation of anomaly” law at work.

D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:36 pm
> “Temperature & Anomoly” if I read the chart heading correctly. It appears the colors are the temperature, the iso-lines are the anomaly.
Nope, in all three the color is the anomaly in C° and the lines are either temperature (see how it gets warmer to the south) or wind streamlines.
Me, I’m hoping for another subzero night, like tonight? That will be the latest subzero reading of the season. 🙂 I’ll have more about local temps after dinner.

Aren’t we a little overdue for another year without a summer , like 1816? Wide spread famine , skyrocketing food prices, damaged crops deaths in the thousands? All we really need is a bigger story than CAGW to put it to bed.

WelshSkeptic

Just a quick question….will this projected Polar Vortex incursion into eastern/ northen states produce the never ending train of atlantic storms crashing into the UK again…particularily my part of south west Wales. If the answer is Yes then please stop the world as I want to get off….been there, experienced that…didnt like it.

Michael D
Look how warm the Arctic is, though. A quick look at your Sea Ice Page shows it has been unusually warm all winter. That’s not surprising, I guess – some sort of “conservation of anomaly” law at work.
It’s very simple.
The circulation that brings Arctic air south, also sends warm air north.
Because of the kinetic energy involved, Arctic temps tend to rise by much more than they fall at lower latitudes. On a simple averaging system, this means that global temps would rise, but in reality the energy has not changed.

Reblogged this on woollylocks and commented:
WUWT is the real deal. Thanks for the great information!

Larry Young

On Lucia’s thread about DC’s comments, Neil J. King (a Skeptical Science team member) made a laughable mistake.
He dug out his old physics book and used a few equations about energy distribution among molecules, but they were equations that did not take into account the force of gravity. That was the very thing we were talking about, namely how gravity brings about an autonomous thermal gradient (aka lapse rate) in any planet’s troposphere.
The relevance of all this to climate change is that, firstly, Skeptical Science is stumped, and of course the greenhouse is smashed.

taxed

This is also been picked up on the jet stream forecast charts as well.
It looks like this Arctic blast will be mostly confined to the NE of the USA. As there is a jet stream forming in the eastern Pacific and will flow across the middle of the USA, so is likely to keep the cold air in the NE. But it likely that there will more heavy snow and rain, as this jet draws moist air off the Pacific.

Pachygrapsus

Reading the above comments made wonder, how many atomic bombs are we going to lose?

DR

The worst snowstorms in my area of Michigan comes when it warms from a deep cold spell. So far this year, we’ve had no big storms, but a whole lot of very cold air, and those maps puts us right smack dab in the middle of another big freeze. Gee, I can’t wait. No sight of Robins, and the ducks that dive for food in lakes are dying in large numbers. Strange how global warming works.
Right now the river near us is like glass; almost makes me want to dig out the ice skates but they won’t fit me anyway. There are quite a few out there skating, reminds me of Hans Brinker 🙂
In 1994/1995 we had lots of ice into April, then a very hot summer (104 in the U.P.). I wonder if that will repeat this year.

Mac the Knife

There’s quite a bit of warmer air rotating into the arctic, behind each wave of polar cold that slides down across Canada and skates into the US. As a result, Arctic ice coverage is rather ‘low’ this spring….
Is this how a glaciation age starts? With a warmer arctic allowing more water evaporation and transport onto a cold North American continent? Could the Bering Sea, Arctic ocean, Hudson Bay, et.al be the ultimate ‘lake effect snow’ machine, that feeds the continent engulfing glacier?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

Gail Combs

Michael D says: @ March 17, 2014 at 4:00 pm
Look how warm the Arctic is, though…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And all that ‘Warm’ just got tossed into outer space.
Of more interest was the entire 2013 summer was below ‘Normal’ in temp.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

taxed

WelshSkeptic@
Looking at the jet stream forecast chart.
It looks at there will be high pressure sitting very near to the UK, when this is forecast to happen.
So hopefully it will shied us from the worst of the bad weather.

DR

P.S. Going geo-thermal in 2010 has really paid off for us. Our highest heating (includes hot water) was $90.31.

Gail Combs

Mac the Knife says: @ March 17, 2014 at 4:33 pm
….Is this how a glaciation age starts? …
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the same ‘shape’ as the polar express….
http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/martin1/lauren.jpg

george e. conant

Could it be possible that topical warm air rushing towards the poles bring moisture and warmth to these regions as part of a self regulating system for the planet? So cold air gets shoved towards the tropics and there in lies the rub… weather! Storms, rains, snows etc, and all the while solar radiance is warming on the day side and radiant cooling occurs on the night side of the planet. So why would warm intrusions to the poles be anomolous? Seems perfectly normal. What is interesting to me is the idea of feedback loops where say more heat gerts radiated out to space than is trapped in the oceans or atmosphere, for this to occur we need lots of clear night time skys over vast areas of earth. Counter to this idea is vast warm low level cloud cover and sluggish trade winds and I bet surface temps spike. The winter here in the Catskills of NY has been brutal. Many old timers don’t recall quite as relentless a winter with sustained cold. Snow yes. We get lots of snow here historically. My maple trees are just getting going with sap and by this time I am usually done with sugaring. And another polar vortex , yikes! Many folks here ran out of firewood, wood cutters like me couldn’t get out and cut untill just a few days ago. My body is tired from just trying to keep warm. I am impressed with this winter. WOW

MattN

I picked a hell of a time to move to the mountains of Virginia….

jakee308

I’m thinking of suing Al Gore et al for False Advertising and Fraud.
We were promised Global Warming and I was looking forward to living life a bit tropical instead of polar. I could’ve moved to Florida but NOOOOOO, I believed them when they said the Earth was getting warmer and would keep on getting warmer. More fool I.
Who do I apply to or where do I go to complain?

BUT DID THEY LISTEN IN 2002 WHEN I PREDICTED GLOBAL COOLING?
NOOOOOOO !!!
🙂
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/07/jli-final-forecasts-for-2014/#comment-1585141
I cannot make short term predictions of weather / temperature.
I can only make long term predictions – about 15- 20 years or more. 🙂
I wrote in an article in the Calgary Herald published on September 1, 2002:
On global cooling:
“If (as I believe) solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
When I wrote this in 2002, SC 24 was predicted to be strong, and we now know it is quite weak.
I still think my 2002 global cooling prediction will materialize, although I wonder if this cooling will start a bit sooner than 2020.
********

in maine here, looks like its jacket weather.

Tim says regards possible greater tornado season?
“This requires warm air from somewhere!”
As the sun marches northward and warms the land in creates low that draws warm moist air from the gulf. In the southern states tornado season typically is the greatest starting in March, as the season progress warm air can migrate further north. Cold air provides the lift for the warm air masses, (not Trenberth’s warmer and wetter world.) Cold air migrates faster when the ground is cold and snow covered, and that intensifies the clash. I would suspect that the colder and snowier ground from this late winter could induce more tornadoes, similar to last year and the Moore OK tornado. In contrast the warm dry winter during the drought 2010-11 witnessed a dearth of tornados. The seasonal drivers of warm air moving northward should be similar each year, but I suspect intensity of the clash of air masses will be driven by how easily cold air moves southward. I am not a meteorologist, but based on observations and my limited knowledge, that is what I am suspecting.

Allan M.R. MacRae says:” I still think my 2002 global cooling prediction will materialize, although I wonder if this cooling will start a bit sooner than 2020.”
I too think the sun is the main driver but it is coupled to ocean oscillations that alternately absorb heat and then ventilate it two decades or more later. I too predicted we will see colder winters over the next 2 decades as the sun’s activity declines, but I think the real natural definitive experiment will be when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation reverts back to its warm, heat ventilating cycle with more El Ninos. If The sun is the driver of global temps, then during that warm PDO cycle will should temperatures that remain below the plateau of the current hiatus. If CO2 is the driver then we will need to see even greater temperatures. Nature is providing the requisite experiment to test the competing hypotheses.