Apparently, all that work in selective crop breeding won’t overcome ‘climate change’
This is the headline and story summary from Eurekalert:
Crop species may be more vulnerable to climate change than we thought
A new study by a Wits University scientist has overturned a long-standing hypothesis about plant speciation (the formation of new and distinct species in the course of evolution), suggesting that agricultural crops could be more vulnerable to climate change than was previously thought.
I’m thinking they’d test this on actual crops, like corn, wheat, soybeans, or the like, crops we consume and that are important to economies. That would make sense, right? But then, I remembered that this is about ‘climate change’, where nothing makes much sense anymore.
From the University of the Witwatersrand:
New study on plant speciation
A new study by a Wits University scientist has overturned a long-standing hypothesis about plant speciation (the formation of new and distinct species in the course of evolution), suggesting that agricultural crops could be more vulnerable to climate change than was previously thought.
Unlike humans and most other animals, plants can tolerate multiple copies of their genes – in fact some plants, called polyploids, can have more than 50 duplicates of their genomes in every cell. Scientists used to think that these extra genomes helped polyploids survive in new and extreme environments, like the tropics or the Arctic, promoting the establishment of new species.
However, when Dr Kelsey Glennon of the Wits School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences and a team of international collaborators tested this long-standing hypothesis, they found that, more often than not, polyploids shared the same habitats as their close relatives with normal genome sizes.
“This means that environmental factors do not play a large role in the establishment of new plant species and that maybe other factors, like the ability to spread your seeds to new locations with similar habitats, are more important,” said Glennon.
“This study has implications for agriculture and climate change because all of our important crops are polyploids and they might not be much better at adapting to changing climate than their wild relatives if they live in similar climates.”
Glennon’s study also provides an alternative explanation for why plants are so diverse in places like the Cape where the climate has been stable for hundreds of thousands of years. Although her study examined plant species from North America and Europe only, she is looking forward to testing her hypotheses using South African plants.
Glennon’s paper has been published in Ecology Letters, a flagship journal for broad-scale ecology research.
Image: Output for Larrea tridentata (creosote bush) diploid and polyploid populations that shows that both ploidies share similar climate habitats, but differ in how they share that climate.
About Dr Kelsey Glennon
Dr Kelsey Glennon is a Carnegie Postdoctoral Fellow in Climate Change Research in the School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences and the Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. She became interested in plant genetics while volunteering in the Hunter Lab at Salisbury University in her second year of college. She pursued a PhD at George Washington University in Washington, DC, studying plant hybridisation, its effects on species boundaries, and resulting conservation issues. Dr Glennon came to Wits University from a prestigious NSF Bioinformatics Fellowship at Syracuse University in New York. She is currently doing active field research on baobab trees in Limpopo Province and the medicinally important plant imphepho (Helichrysum odoratissimum).
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Mmmmm, creosote.
Never mind the fact that we don’t eat it nor is it considered a “crop”, it seems quite a leap of logic to me to think that the creosote bush, something that has hardly any cross-breeding, selective enhancement, or other improvements to its genetic makeup to enhance yields and make it more palatable for human consumption would serve as a credible model for the highly modified and coddled crops in use today.
Unless of course, our new climate overlords expect us to be eating creosote in the future. I can’t wait for those protests over “GMO creosote”.
I wonder if the author of this study realized how many periods of climate change the King Clone creosote bush has gone through, in the Mojave desert, no less?
King Clone is thought to be the oldest Creosote bush ring in the Mojave Desert. The ring is estimated to be 11,700 years old. It is considered one of the oldest living organisms on Earth. This single clonal colony plant of Larrea tridentata reaches up to 67 feet (20 m) in diameter, with an average diameter of 45 feet (14 m).
I wonder how it survived the Roman Period “megadrought” found in the USA southwest?
Looks tasty, doesn’t it? Somewhere, Norman Borlaug is ROTFL.
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Steven Mosher says:
“Finally, if you think that polyploids we eat are somehow special, if you think their extra genome will make them more survivable, then you can go prove that.”
About half of all flowering plants have arisen through polyploidy, and have usually survived/outcompeted their diploid ancestors, so it does seem that it must be rather advantageous from an evolutionary point of view.
However the reason most cultivars are polyploid is most often because they are hybrids, and polyploidy is the best way to get around the problem that hybrids are usually sterile. This by the way is a type of GMO that has been going on for better than 10,000 years.
If it gets any warmer, our crops won’t be able to handle the heat. They’ll burn up, we won’t have as much food, and we’ll all starve.
If it gets cooler, they won’t be able to take the cold. They’ll freeze, we’ll have shorter growing seasons and the crops won’t grow as well, and we’ll all starve.
So I’ve been told.
Here is an interesting paper on the Creosote bush and it’s history (including the various diploid, tetraploid and hexaploid races):
http://wwwpaztcn.wr.usgs.gov/julio_pdf/Hunter_ea.pdf
It also has a short section on the advantages of polyploidy:
“Genetic evidence suggests that polyploids exhibit nuclear as well as cytoplasmic (chloroplast DNA) diversity, which may give a selective advantage to new polyploids. Polyploidy is prevalent at higher altitudes and latitudes and in deglaciated landscapes, and especially in monocots. Polyploid races often exhibit self-fertilization, asexual reproduction and increased drought tolerance, enabling polyploid species to colonize new, more stressful habitats”
It should be noted that all north american creosote bushes probably are descended from one single seed in the fairly recent past, probably making them an extremely unsuitable species for studying the effects of genetic diversity.
Because we are onmivors we adapt our food sources to survive. During the depth of the Little Ice Age european culture moved from cereal crops to tubers and increase their live stock inventory and got along just fine. Human occupy every niche on the planet. A one or two degree increase in temperature, especially at the poles is not going to make any difference in our survival.
“..like the ability to spread your seeds to new locations …”
We can easily make up for the global warming damage we’ve done that precludes this poor plant’s power of propagation, just promote the idea that there some sort of mythological “power” associated with its seeds. For example, if enough women believe that throwing a few seeds over her shoulder will increase her chances of finding the biggest mark-downs at shoe stores – this plant will be springing up everywhere in no time, Mongolia, the Falklands, Madagascar, Newfoundland, even Jamaica !
tty wrote:
“It should be noted that all north american creosote bushes probably are descended from one single seed in the fairly recent past, probably making them an extremely unsuitable species for studying the effects of genetic diversity.”
Thanks for the link to the paper, but I did not see this single seed statement in there. Where did you find the evidence for that?
“Although her study examined plant species from North America and Europe only, she is looking forward to testing her hypotheses using South African plants.”
——————-
Been to North America, toured Europe..
now looking forward to her taxpayer funded trip to South Africa.
Ummm, AndyG55, Witwatersrand is in South Africa.
Oh God nooooooooo…
Oh sweet, swaddling mother nature why have you forsaken us??????
So it’s worse then ….
Ah well.
Mosher,
Let go of your co2 fixation for just one second, let go of the haunting future and go back to the past. Tell me what you see? Even if you seesaw disaster things are ok today, life made it through. Observations and paleo evidence are the big stinker in the room and all the evidence you need. Learn to relax like me. The world is not going to end because of 0.04 or o.8C or 2C or 4C – the paleo says the world thrives and it is now.
Why are these little [snip] always trying to frighten us with food? They are a despicable bunch of shameless, fund seeking amateurs who do nothing to advance the human condition. Speculative drivel is their game.
Almost nothing that can be said of L. tridentata has any bearing on plants in general. It is an odd ball species that has been around UNCHANGED for a very long time. It also displays little variation across its ENTIRE range! A highly specialized and stable species is definitely not a good subject to make statements about evolutionary mechanisms in general. The only real thing this study says is that L. tridentata is an amazing species that has evolved to be perfectly adapted to it’s erratic environment.
The direction of a populations evolutionary trajectory is in the direction that maximizes that populations ability to produce offspring that live long enough to produce offspring.
Well, forget all you know about climate change, and what sort of rock minerals, are going to be showing up in your driveway, or petunia garden, from changing ocean acidity.
This is from the Palo Alto and mid Peninsula Daily Post, a freebie real estate pushing publication on dead trees. I pick it up at the medical clinic is Mountain View, to do the daily Sudoku puzzles.
This from today the 21st Feb 2014.
Study: Global warming will fuel (pun) crimes.
The DP, plagiarizing from the Los Angeles Times, says, that between 2010 and 2099 climate change “can be expected to CAUSE” 22,000 new murders, 180,000 rapes, and 1.2 million aggravated assaults, (probably from reading guff like this). But this comes from a Mr. Ranson (possible speeling mistake there) of ABT associates (could be Anybody But Taxpayers).
And for an encore, this extreme weather event calamity, will include 2.3 million “simple assaults”, (like knocking out old ladies with a surprise single punch I assume). Add 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million larcenies, and 580,000 vehicle thefts. All of this mayhem, worth $115 Billion.
Well there you have it; all gleaned from the haggard moss on the side of a Charlie Brown Christmas tree some where in Yamal.
ABT is in a Boston suburb in Mass…..
Well there you have it; Pennsylvania is not the only State enjoying the clown boom.
Creosote used to be used to treat telephone poles and railroad ties.
Energy transmission and transportation.
“Coal Trains of Death” (on their way to power plants) are going to kill us all!
I’m confused.
Is this study for or against preserving the means of supplying and transmitting affordable energy?
Steven Mosher says:
February 21, 2014 at 8:24 am
“A) we used to think polyploids extra genome would help them survive.
B) we tested that by looking at a polyploid.
C) we found that extra genome didn’t help.
D) our food is polyploid, we cannot count on the extra genome to make them more survivable.
Finally, if you think that polyploids we eat are somehow special, if you think their extra genome will make them more survivable, then you can go prove that.”
Mosher, to complete your chain of arguments:
E) Our food crops are all ENGINEERED. WE don’t CARE whether they adapt on our own. We ENGINEER new varieties where and when we need them.
And yes, traditional methods of producing new cultivars are a form of engineering; just with different means than newfangled GMO engineering.
Watched a documentary about an American harvesting contractor, harvesting wheat.
His machines started way down south and as the wheat ripened, harvested all the way north
into Canada. The last harvesting done in flurries of snow. Tells me something about the adaptability of wheat. What are these people smoking?
Steven Mosher – Tricky stuff, this Popper science. You have to check your assumptions too. It’s assumed that plants have to move for survival – but just maybe they can develop these poly-thingys instead?
Steven Mosher raises a number of points, none of which are relevant to theory on polyploidy or to the results of this paper. All organisms are thought to use their genomes to survive, no matter what the ploidy level. Polyploids are thought to be better competitors in disturbed habitats – most of our problem crop weeds are polyploids, as are most roadside weeds. Why no headline that ‘weeds will not be worse under climate change’?
Many populations of diploid and polyploid plants coexist as do these populations of creosote bush. Hardly surprising, especially since it diploids are the original source of polyploids. What was falsified what the expectation of frequent niche shifts in the populations they studied. Given the extreme life span of creosote clones, that is hardly surprising. Except in Macbeth, plants find it difficult to get up and move. Diploids can move as well as their seeds move. Polyploids are often sterile and survive by vegetative reproduction. I don’t know if this is true of some or all of the creosote plants studied, but I do know that our polyploid crop plants depend on people for dispersal and climate choice, so the results of this paper seem to have absolutely no relevance to the future of polyploid crops. What this study may or may not show is that for this one species (all polyploids are not necessarily equal), diploids and polyploids share similar climatic distributions.
Only the Abstract is available on-line, but it is much less inflammatory than the press release:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1111/ele.12259/
Evidence for shared broad‐scale climatic niches of diploid and polyploid plants
Authors
K. L. Glennon, M. E. Ritchie, K. A. Segraves
Whole‐genome duplication (polyploidy) occurs frequently and repeatedly within species, often forming new lineages that contribute to biodiversity, particularly in plants. Establishment and persistence of new polyploids may be thwarted by competition with surrounding diploids; however, climatic niche shifts, where polyploids occupy different niches than diploid progenitors, may help polyploids overcome this challenge. We tested for climatic niche shifts between cytotypes using a new ordination approach and an unprecedentedly large data set containing young, conspecific diploids and polyploids. Despite expectations of frequent niche shifts, we show evidence for alternative patterns, such as niche conservatism and contraction, rather than a prevalent pattern of niche shifts. In addition, we explore how interpreting climatic niches plotted on environmental niche (principal component) axes can generate hypotheses about processes underlying niche dynamics. Dispersal capabilities or other life‐history traits, rather than shifts to new climatic niches, could better explain polyploid persistence in the long term.
Then again, variations in polyploids may come from the natural space environment, as they are susceptible to em radiation. For example, gamma radiation is a way of inducing mutation variability.
https://www.google.com/search?q=polyploidy+gamma+radiation&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb
So I doubt you can control for all of that in blanket statements about “sustainability.”
Col Mosby says:
February 21, 2014 at 7:37 am
What happens when plant/crop-ignorant climate change artists start speculating.
Anyone with half a brain nows that global warming would help, not hurt, plant life, especially with an abundant supply of CO2. Ane WE control where those plants seeds go, not Nature, and if we need to move some species to a higher latitude, big deal.
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I have an East Indian lime tree, my inheritance, in my living room with some beautiful limes on the tree and a bunch of new blossoms. The fruit is a lovely deep orange color with an exquisite flavor, fine for fish and chicken, or a mixed drink. It gets to go outside in May. Afterwards, I will have to make a greenhouse for it, as it will be to big to come back inside by next winter. As you point out we can grow anything, anywhere. I use a t-5 fluorescent, as they are very efficient and low cost in operation.
A) We used to think that red cars were faster.
B) We tested that by looking at a red car.
C) We found that the red paint didn’t help.
D) Our cars are red, we cannot count on the paint to make them faster.
Finally, if you think that red cars we drive are somehow special, if you think their paint will make them faster, then you can go prove that.
Yup. Makes exactly as much sense.
From the University of Witlesswatersrand.
Matt Skaggs says:
” Thanks for the link to the paper, but I did not see this single seed statement in there. Where did you find the evidence for that?”
The Creosote bush was almost certainly dispersed relatively recently from South America to North America by a bird (as noted on p. 530 in the paper). Such a sweepstake dispersal event is very unlikely to have occurred twice, or to have involved more than a single seed, given the morphology of Larrea seeds.
Hemp will grow just fine.
I awoke a short while ago from a bit of restful sleep. As I lay there a stream of thought entered into the forefront. A piece of a puzzle that had been missing became clear to me. I started to go back to sleep, but realized that I was not likely to reenter sleep at this time. The thought had been too stimulating. It had keyed me upward. Then as I thought further about the experience, I came to the decision that I should tell this story, as for too many times in my life I have let things that should have been said or done unfinished. Some of these pieces that were left unfinished had negative consequences for me and for others at times. I regret some of those consequences deeply to this day. I will start from the beginning.
All of my life from an early age, I have been aware of change/s. That includes change within me, changes in society, and changes in nature at times. The first awareness of change was in 1956. I turned 6 years old in May of that year. Around that time was the first inklings of a different stream of thought from within. That summer, which followed the great flood of 1955/56 in the Pac NW, I learned my first observable lesson of what nature can and will do at times. It can cause large changes. In this case a wonderful redwood stump fort alongside of Lagunitas Creek in Samuel P Taylor Park had been a victim of the winter flood. This would have been the first season where I was to be allowed to join the older boys and play in that fort. Now it was but a shell of it,s former glory. It wasa harsh yet clear lesson about the power of nature and that nature changes the natural world. The second part to understanding change in the years 1956/57 was that I had started to become aware of changes within me, of changes within my awareness and mentality. This was shortly after the solar minimum
The second point of advancement in this process came in 1966. I turned 16 that year. This was the year after the great flood of 1964/65. Which was also around the time of the solar minimum. In the years prior, I had been steadily working towards increased understanding of the spiritual side of myself. I had made good gains along the way by this point in time. Working together with my brother the two of us were on the dge of discovery. The main factor in this was that which was in me. I was the catalyst, but added to that was the strength of love and trust that brothers can sometimes have. We shared that love and unbounded trust. Then, all of that came to an end. My brother tirned 18 that year. The Vietnam war was was rapidly escalating and my brother was a dropout. He made the choice to leave the country. He went to NY and then on to Spain. I was devastated. I wanted to go with him, but he pointed out that our parents would have also been devastated, if I had also left. I could understand that. Yet now my partner, my key to further progress on the path had been taken from me. The last two years of high school saw a drop in my grades as a consequence. Yet because I had made so much progress on the path, in an honest truthful search I was given an unexpected wondrous gift. At the end of the year of 1966 at the age of 16 the Holy Spirit came to me one night. Up to that point in time in my prayers, I had always asked for two things for myself. I had prayed for the gift of faith and for understanding/wisdom. Both of those requests were filled at the end of that year. Although, the gift of faith turned into the gift of no longer needing faith, as understanding replaced the need for faith. That is how that works. Then early in 1967 there was another major understanding/gift that had correlations to one of my ancestors, St Theresa of Avila, Spain.
The third point of change came in 1976/77. This was the decade where the 9 year flood cycle was broken. That is the time of the climate shift to warming. In that year I faced death three times, where I did not see where I would live through the next minute/s of my life. Obviously, I survived all of them. The first event occurred around 6/6/1976. There would be a record of the accident to pinpoint the exact day. Part of what caused the accident was due to the drought from the previous winter. That evening there was a light rain, which was the first rain in 7 or 8 months. The other part to that accident was due to my drinking. Six people had died going off at that same spot on the Klamath River where I went off. My one thought as I went off was “goodbye baby”. Then 2 months after that in August, and 2 more months once again in October, the other 2 near death moments occurred, one from being in a runaway truck loaded with lumber, and the other from being chased down a mountain by a 50,000 pound rolling pin of Ponderosa pine. I should have never told my wife about the rolling pin. She insisted that I stop working in the woods, but we needed the money. As a result she took the children and went to Sacramento in November of 1976 to stay with her parents in protest. In one of the greatest mistakes of my life, I called an end to our marriage. In the beginning of 1977, I had a very unusual aware dream. Part of that dream comes to meet me in 1986. This was also the years around the solar minimum.
The 4th point of change happens in 1985/86. There had been a heavy rain the year before, around the solar minimum. I had been run over by a vehicle in SF and had my right arm and leg broken in multiple places. Then at the end of 1985, there was a chance for an upswing in my life. My family opened a new restaurant. I went back to work as the kitchen manager, which I was very proficient at. Although we were soon faced with bankruptcy right away from problems elsewhere with the restaurants we had. I worked like a man possessed, which helped me heal and re-strengthen my broken body. In 1986 a lovely woman from Ireland came to work for us. She was the woman who I had seen in my aware dream in early 1977. The fact that she was from Ireland made complete sense in that my dream took place on foreign soil. I knew that it was foreign soil by the vegetation and the smell of the air during the aware dream. Ireland thus made complete sense to me, and brought wonderment to me once again as I thought ‘how could this be and why?’. We survived the bankruptcy.
The fifth point of change came in 1996/97, the year of the semi biblical flood in No Cal and So Oregon. In January of 1996 I had an unbidden thought come to me that there was going to be a huge rain coming with the next winter. I then told quite a few people about this, because the thought came from a certain spot within me. Thoughts that come from this spot, come to pass or are correct in what they show me. That is why I was telling others about the premonition. I had never foretold a weather event before in my life. This was a first. In the fall of that year we had lost the valuable lease on our SF theater district restaurant. This was due to being stabbed in the back by a scheming lawyer. Once again the future had become tenuous for me. The winter set in and a semi biblical rain event occurred. My father had a great opportunity to acquire a lease option on a 2 acre property in Marin with an existing restaurant on it. Prospects seemed great, except there was a question of money. My dad struggled to raise the funds to do a full renovation. I suggested that we just spruce up the place and open the doors. He was not willing to do that. Later in 1977 I moved in with my folks into their Marin house. My dad was trying to play options to raise money. he had a partner who showed him how to get away from using brokers by going online. Being that I was now living with him, he told me one morning that I was now going to learn about the stock market. Throughout my adult life he had tried to get me interested in the stock market. He figured that my gifted mentality could aid him in this endeavour. So here we were. After 6 days of listening and looking over his shoulder, I told him that I could make sense of what I was seeing. So he gave me the go ahead to make a decison and place an order. He had about $36,000 left. He said that I could use $2,000 for myself and he would follow with the rest. I made an SP 500 move that was the opposite of what he had been thinking. I explained that I saw a good spot for the next 48 hours. In 36 hours my $2,000 had increased to $12,000, and his closer to the money option was now worth $290,000. He had gained over $250,000. I said sell and he said wait one more day and it could be a million. I again said sell and he then said ” so the student is going to teach the master?”. The market reversed. He still made about $20,000. My 12k had gone back to the 2k of his money, and that was it. He had killed the golden goose. Shortly after I moved to Oregon to stay with my younger brother. That was also the year of the solar minimum.
And now for the elusive 6th point of change. I had never connected the dots to see it prior to my waking up several hours ago. The years are 2006/07. In 2006 I was fired from a good job by my boss, who was a ‘master’ at everything he had ever read or thought about. The job was color matching paints and stains for refinishers and contractors, and I found it fascinating. I had no experience at it, but soon became very good at it. In the 2.5 years in which I had worked for him I had produced 2,600 successful color matches/formulas. However, as usual, there was a problem right from the beginning, which stemmed from a lawsuit between him and a partner who shared the other half of the warehouse they had purchased together. His ‘partner’ in the building was crazy enough to the point where I brought my gun to the warehouse and kept it there. Shortly after being fired in August of 2006, I woke up one morning to find that I could no longer see out of my right eye. I lived like that for 5 years, afterwards. I soon took a job though, as a crewman for a standby for oil spills in the Carquinez Straits area around the refineries there. It was a 24 hour sit by job in a building at the end of a pier. That winter in 2006/07 there was a heavy rain where the waters of the Sacramento River actually cut us off from the land for about 4 days. It made one a bit nervous to feel the sway in the wooden pier and the building. We had boats ready for escape, if necessary. The years 2006/07 were the end of the warming. The solar minimum was the following year.
That now brings me to my last thought for the evening or early morning and the 7th possible future point of change. I have already stated more than once at different websites that the next California flood should be due around 2016/17 or perhaps 2017/18. Now after looking at the above record of how years ending in 6 have been the dominant turning point throughout my entire life, then I would have to predict that 2016 is a high probability year for the next point of change in nature and perhaps in myself. I can well imagine how strange all of this will be to any who read this. I would find this thought strange, if someone else presented it. Afterall, I am a skeptic as most here are. In fact without being skeptical from my early years, I could have never achieved the gains that I made in my spiritual growth, as they would have been built on a false foundation. Feel free to make any comment. I stand by what I wrote here. I feel very clear and strong minded at this time.
About 6 years ago, I had started smoking weed on a regular basis as something was causing me terrible sleep problems. I had lost several jobs because of the sleep problems. The sleep problems ended when I left the town of Benicia and moved into the mountains. Curiously, my blood pressure which had become high for the first time in my life while living in Benicia, also returned to normal within several months of living here in the mountains. Who knows why? Eleven days ago, I made the decision to clear the fumes from my mind. I want my full mentality back so that I can take the next step in re-educating myself further. I thank the many here who have shared great thought on this site and who have thus aided me in this endeavour. I am also very serious about this conversation, and the implications that it holds for the future well being of the world at large. The last coherent words that my mother spoke in her last day were to me. There were 6 of us visiting in her hospital room that day, three of my siblings, my father, myself, and a family friend. I was sitting on her right side. My mother was lost in her mind for the most part due to the morphine, which she hated. Suddenly, she reached over and grabbed my arm with what must have been all the stregth left to her weakened body. She looked straight into my eyes and asked ” Are the children safe?”. What could I say? I am an honest truthful man. Yet I had to answer back to my mother ” Yes the children are safe”. Then she drifted back into the morphine and random thoughts. That was her last day on Earth. Her final words will always be remembered.