New paper finds temperatures were as much as 0.5c warmer in the Arctic during the MWP than today.
The Hockeyschtick reports: A paper published yesterday in Global and Planetary Change reconstructs temperatures in Northern Fennoscandia [within the Arctic circle] over the past 1,600 years and finds more non-hockey-sticks clearly demonstrating that the Arctic was warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period. The paper adds to over 1,000 peer-reviewed published non-hockey-sticks finding the Medieval Warm Period was global, as warm or warmer than the present, and that there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about the current warm period.
Furthermore, the authors find a natural 70-80 year oscillation of temperatures, similar to the 60-70 year oscillation of the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO].
So much for “Arctic amplification.”
All four of these temperature reconstructions show the Medieval Warm Period ~1000 years ago was warmer than the present [year 2000].
Fig. 1. Different estimates of Northern Fennoscandian temperature anomalies between 400-2000 AD. Shown are the present conventional estimate (Ttorn, green) which is rather close to that in Grudd08, the present filtered estimate (Tlong, blue), smoothed temperatures of Esper12 (Tesp, red) and smoothed August SST reconstruction from the Norwegian Sea (black).
Fig. 3. August SST [sea surface temperature] reconstructions from the south of Iceland (above, blue) and the Norwegian Sea (below, blue) (modified from Miettinen et al., 2012). Red solid lines show smoothed values.
The new temperature reconstruction presented by this paper shows the Medieval Warm Period [~1000 years ago] in the Arctic was warmer than the present [year 2000] temperatures.
Fig. 4. The present estimate of the climatic temperature anomalies (red, Tclim = Tesp + Tsea + Tvolc), and Tesp from Fig. 1 (thick blue).
The paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818114000253?np=y
A 70-80 year peridiocity identified from tree ring temperatures AD 550 – 1980 in Northern Scandinavia
Juhani Rinne, Mikko Alestalo, Arto Miettinen
Highlights
• Volcanism and millennial variations
• Decadal (volcanic) variations
• Multidecadal (oceanic) variations
• Climate variations as seen in tree-ring temperatures
• Biases in the Torneträsk paleotemperatures
Abstract
The classical Maximum Density data of 65 Torneträsk trees from years 441-1980 AD are studied in millennial, centennial and volcanic scales. The millennial scale is analyzed applying a specific filtering method. In that scale, the climate is cool after 1200-1400 AD. This more or less steady period is suggested to be due to volcanic episodes, which reduced the northward heat transport in the North Atlantic. The century scale variation, on the other hand, is suggested to be due to [natural] internal oscillations in sea surface temperature (SST) and to be connected to variations in the Arctic sea ice. Specifically, these oscillations have caused an additional warming and cooling trend in Northern Fennoscandian temperatures before and after 1930’s, respectively.
Variations in the temperature estimates are explained by the results for different temporal scales. All of them show local impacts leading to differences when compared with hemispheric estimates. The long-term estimate of the temperature as derived from the present Torneträsk data is found to be biased. The source of that is unknown.
Source: The Hockeyshtick
Clearly this is denialist lies as the authors have been seen to walk past gas stations without spitting on therm which ‘proves ‘ their in the pay of big oil.
Yes, the Norse seafarers observed this and told the world about it.
richard says: @ur momisugly January 28, 2014 at 10:32 am
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/the-coming-and-going-of-glaciers-a-new-alpine-melt-theory-a-357366.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
He does a real nice fancy dance to CYA about Global Warming doesn’t he?
CEH says:
“For a definition of the Arctic, please look at the reference page Northern Regional Sea Ice Page at this blogs´masthead. Btw. it´s the Polar circle.”
Where I went to school, it is called the Arctic Circle. Just as the map says: The area within the “Arctic Circle”.
But YMMV.
Db.
You need to up ur skepticism.
“1. treemometers are bogus … ”
Forget the trees, thermometers record temperatures in the Arctic at least as warm as now seventy years ago, before human CO2 emissions could have been a factor.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/70-90N%20MonthlyAnomaly%20Since1920.gif
Gifford Miller. Paging Gifford Miller…
Steven Mosher says:
“You need to up ur skepticism.”
Another vague, cryptic, nebulous statement. Contrast it with my comment, which contained two (2) supporting links, and an unarguable [to me☺] real world example showing that the MWP was warm enough to support settlements in what was, until quite recently, frozen permafrost since the end of the MWP.
I can post lots of peer reviewed papers and empirical evidence showing that the MWP was warmer than now. Others have done so, too. So I stand by my statement, and I don’t think you came close to refuting anything I wrote.
Steven, you will need to do more than make baseless assertions to be convincing.
Mosher’s right about treemometers. They’re about as good at revealing paleo-temperatures as tarot cards. Treemometer studies should be rejected by all serious climate students.
Good call Mosh-pit. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.
Dr. J.Curry is also looking into Arctic temperatures; I posted this comment
Arctic temperature oscillations are out of phase with the N. Atlantic and N. Pacific, with the decadal periodicities (uniquely) close to those found in the oscillations in the Earth’s core.
Inner core Oscillations 85 50 35 28 years
Arctic spectrum 82 54 32 25 years
This would suggest that role of the Earth’s magnetic field may be more important than previously assumed.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Arctic.htm
All treemometers are not equal. The longest Finnish dendro data series covers 7600 year and was awarded as one of the best. It does not use the thickness of the rings to represent temperature.
Instead they pull out big pine trunks from small ponds in Finnish Lapland where ponds are now surrounded by dwarf birch and there are not pines growing anywhere near. Today it’s too cold and pine dos not grow at that height any more.
They use tree rings to date the trunks very accurately by syncing different trunks from different ages, and based on the altitude trunks were found determine temperature. Trunks have been preserved thousands of years in the muddy bottom of the pond, and low oxygen water.
That’s accurate method, even if there is water or nutrients, pine does not grow if it’s too cold.
Here’s their 7600 yr raw data:
http://lustiag.pp.fi/data/Advance/Advance10K_t7ps2.xlsx
Temperature of Scandinavia seem to follow AMO cycle and NAO. AMO is based on its 50–90 year quasi-cycle and this study show 70-80 year cycle averaged over 1600 year period. 70-80 year cycle fits well inside 50-90 year cycle of AMO, currently defined by much shorter sample.
I would think that temperature and AMO are in sync for Scandinavia and NH.
date: Mon Oct 12 12:10:26 1998
from: Keith Briffa
subject: copy to a safe place!!and leave original there
to: ???@uea
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1553.txt&search=tree+line
“A 70-80 year peridiocity identified from tree ring temperatures AD 550 – 1980 in Northern Scandinavia”
I would like to see the actual spacing, I would be predicting four 69yr intervals followed by a 42yr interval making 318yrs (317.76), or three 69yr intervals followed by a 111yr interval, again 318yrs. The latter would give a predominance of 69yr steps but an apparent average of 79.5yrs.
D. B. Stealey, unlike the no-evidence AGWers, you got game, man. They haven’t even found their way to the basketball pavilion and you are out their sinking 3-pointers. You go, Dave! It’s just like someone whose team is loooosing big time to tell someone on the other team to up their game, LOL (a BEST defense is a good offense, heh, heh).
Man, I really want to LIKE Steven Mo-sher (I guess I kinda do or I wouldn’t even want to want to!). Why can’t he just give up the pretense?!
***********************************
re: the NO-game AGWer bogus argument (Jim S at 7:25am today — good point, Jim S; below, I am not attacking you, I hope your realize): “The actual global temperature was far lower… .”
The slam-dunk answer remains what it has always been (and, almost certainly, always will be):
Prove it.
They have NEVER done this.
**********************************************************
Note: @ur momisugly AGWers –> there is no “global temperature.” Only temperatures. In the MWP, many of them (in the various climate zones) were higher than they were after the MWP, thus, the MWP was “world-wide.” {Want data? Search on WUWT for “medieval warm period.”}
“there”!!!!!111
Dedicated to D. B. Stealey — ALL AMERICAN — thanks for all you do, year in, year out, for truth-in-science!
You are SO ready to play, a DH (designated hitter), big bat, home-run hittin’, wonder man! Everyone who knows anything about the game (i.e., about genuine science) wants your autograph.
You too, Jimbo (and Gail — Wonder WOMAN). #(:))
Way — to — go!
I love you guys!
(@ur momisugly Mr. M-osher: you could be out there hitting home runs, too, if you would just get off the AGW bus…)
Thanks, Janice. Steve M is a nice guy. We’re just discussing our differences of opinion…
The daily sst anomaly is showing a strong warm current developing south of Greenland and running up on the east side of Greenland. This is all bound for the arctic region. Would all of that warmth entering into the Arctic be a part of the driving force that spreads the cold southward, as it vents outward?
Today,s global temps show a rather cool southern hemisphere. I use this for a quick glance at what the world is showing for temps…http://meteo.france24.com/en/meteo/ville/Paris-CDG/474
The temps in South Africa and South America are subdued, imo. I was wondering if there might not be an effect like this stemming from the continuing, well above average sea ice. Even the much talked about, by some, Melbourne heat wave has succumbed to a southern cool wave. Isn’t this how it has been in the past?, and isn’t it very likely that we are going to see a repeat of what historical records show? The warmth exiting the Arctic sets the stage for that which comes afterwards.
Mosher writes “Bottom line. we have some evidence it was warmer in certain regions during the MWP, some evidence it wasn’t as warm.”
Like today’s warming you mean?
eg http://www.dgf.uchile.cl/rene/PUBS/ttrend.pdf
NevenA says:
January 28, 2014 at 7:26 am
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Nice graph. It looks like temps in that region are going to be similar to what was seen in the 30s through the 60s. What a coincidence!
Steve Mosher said; “real bottom line: MWP says nothing about ow much warming we will see.”
Disagree. Latest climate models back-cast MWP cooler than this study suggests. If today’s arctic temperatures are statistically equivalent (due to said uncertainties), to those of the MWP, when CO2 levels were lower than today, then logically the estimated climate sensitivity to CO2 is currently biased high. Therefore we should see less warming than currently predicted.
Anthony Watts & al:
Torne- träsk is the long and large lake on the way / (very fameous railway- line) between Kiruna and Narvik. Träsk = equal to “trash” meaning marshland and obviously a bit confused up there in Lappland by those Sæmi and “Finns” up there, who did not understand swedish too well, using the term Tresk rather for a lake.
It is frozen from December to St.Hans with a lot of very popular ice fishing.
The landscape is really very beautiful when summer comes at last and after all, and all the flowers but indeed also all the mosquitos suddenly explode in a hurry.
Can you immagine landscapes quite blue of Geranium sylvana for instance. And jade- green high mountains. And the autumn colours early September.
That fish of Torne- träsk is very fine smoked, and right outside there in the fjord we have the worlds best codfish. Stoccavisso is when it is hanged and dried and only gets better and better, The same is true also of hanged and dried reindeer. But the wines have to be imported.
Remember rosso, not bianco, for codfish and for whale- beef. There ain`t no better beef on land.
The faster and the wilder the cattle, the better the marrow bone soup also.
Flutemaker- soup is Os femur with Os tibia for instance. The hons of reindeer, although small are quite more pleasant to work with than with ivory. A quite strong and quite smooth and easy to carve- manerial.
Kiruna keeps a whole mountain and even several mountains of very pure Magnetite Fe3O4, so now they have to moove the very town, after having dug out the very mountain under it.
Apparently, they have tried to repeat the success of Michael Mann, = the Mann with the scatch you see (and not a hockeystick at all…), who scare up people. But that Mann with the very fameous scatch as I told you, (and not a hockeystick at all..) is only carrying out his duty.
It is rather easy at Torneträsk because the landscape is steep and cool enough with very old and grey trees everywhere, that hardly rot.
The worlds oldest known living tree is found a bit further south, in Jämtland a Picea exelsa L prooved to be 7000 years old..!
Beat that…!
The reason why those Swedes do not have to fight for theit lives, but rather get their works into Nature, is that they could behave. They must have been relatively sober at work, avoiding fighting peoples hockeysticks, which is quite silly to my opinion. The Sæmi rather make their own ones their own way from local material, I know.
They simply try and tell the truth and the possible causes and reasons for it, and say that the climate and temperature history at Torne-träsk is obviously “biased” as compared to the rest of the known world. And say that they cannot find why that is so, but so it is.
LAVDABILIS for that, to the swedes at Torneträsk.
I have a melody for it, Bruremarsj från Jämtland. But I have to find the right Youtube for you. Or maybe even Bruremarsj fra Lødingen.
Not all performers and versions are good.
But, we should also have a proper autentic Joik to it.
Thanks for that lovely post promoting the glories of Scandinavia, Carbo Montanus (at 10:39pm today).
And, to return your favor, here you go! Skoal!
“Bruremarsj fra Lødingen
(I sure hope those words aren’t saying anything disgusting… I have no idea!)
And, on Side 2, the only Swedish song I know (well, it’s sort of Swedish, lol)
Hut-Sut Song — Freddy Martin & Orchestra
#(:))
Greetings from America (where we have more Swedes than you can say “Ya, shoor, you betcha” to in one lifetime)!
goldminor says: January 28, 2014 at 6:13 pm
“Even the much talked about, by some, Melbourne heat wave has succumbed to a southern cool wave”
OK today (Wed) but 42°C yesterday. Heat forecast for the weekend.