Inconvenient study: Arctic was warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period

New paper finds temperatures were as much as 0.5c warmer in the Arctic during the MWP than today.

The Hockeyschtick reports: A paper published yesterday in Global and Planetary Change reconstructs temperatures in Northern Fennoscandia [within the Arctic circle] over the past 1,600 years and finds more non-hockey-sticks clearly demonstrating that the Arctic was warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period. The paper adds to over 1,000 peer-reviewed published non-hockey-sticks finding the Medieval Warm Period was global, as warm or warmer than the present, and that there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about the current warm period.

Furthermore, the authors find a natural 70-80 year oscillation of temperatures, similar to the 60-70 year oscillation of the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO].

So much for “Arctic amplification.”

All four of these temperature reconstructions show the Medieval Warm Period ~1000 years ago was warmer than the present [year 2000].

Fig. 1. Different estimates of Northern Fennoscandian temperature anomalies between 400-2000 AD. Shown are the present conventional estimate (Ttorn, green) which is rather close to that in Grudd08, the present filtered estimate (Tlong, blue), smoothed temperatures of Esper12 (Tesp, red) and smoothed August SST reconstruction from the Norwegian Sea (black).

Fig. 3. August SST [sea surface temperature] reconstructions from the south of Iceland (above, blue) and the Norwegian Sea (below, blue) (modified from Miettinen et al., 2012). Red solid lines show smoothed values.

The new temperature reconstruction presented by this paper shows the Medieval Warm Period [~1000 years ago] in the Arctic was warmer than the present [year 2000] temperatures.

Fig. 4. The present estimate of the climatic temperature anomalies (red, Tclim = Tesp + Tsea + Tvolc), and Tesp from Fig. 1 (thick blue).

The paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818114000253?np=y

A 70-80 year peridiocity identified from tree ring temperatures AD 550 – 1980 in Northern Scandinavia

Juhani Rinne, Mikko Alestalo, Arto Miettinen

Highlights

• Volcanism and millennial variations

• Decadal (volcanic) variations

• Multidecadal (oceanic) variations

• Climate variations as seen in tree-ring temperatures

• Biases in the Torneträsk paleotemperatures

Abstract

The classical Maximum Density data of 65 Torneträsk trees from years 441-1980 AD are studied in millennial, centennial and volcanic scales. The millennial scale is analyzed applying a specific filtering method. In that scale, the climate is cool after 1200-1400 AD. This more or less steady period is suggested to be due to volcanic episodes, which reduced the northward heat transport in the North Atlantic. The century scale variation, on the other hand, is suggested to be due to [natural] internal oscillations in sea surface temperature (SST) and to be connected to variations in the Arctic sea ice. Specifically, these oscillations have caused an additional warming and cooling trend in Northern Fennoscandian temperatures before and after 1930’s, respectively.

Variations in the temperature estimates are explained by the results for different temporal scales. All of them show local impacts leading to differences when compared with hemispheric estimates. The long-term estimate of the temperature as derived from the present Torneträsk data is found to be biased. The source of that is unknown.

Source: The Hockeyshtick

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bill_c

I would like to see a CA post on this.

AleaJactaEst

burn them!!! heretics….burn them all…..oh wait, we can’t burn them, think of the CO2. Can we smother them instead?

tty

Actually Northern Scandinavia isn’t in the Arctic even though it’s partly north of the Arctic Circle. Subarctic perhaps, but not arctic.
And yes, it has long been known that the climate was significantly warmer during the MWP, as shown by remains of trees well above the current treeline. The treeline data indicate temperatures 0.6-0.8 degrees warmer than at present for a period long enough for pine-trees to mature.

Claude Harvey

Ever notice how everyone uses “tree rings” only when those rings tell them what they wish to see? Gotta’ “filter” those babies. Otherwise, they’re all over the map. Just sayin’.

M Courtney

Abstract: The classical Maximum Density data of 65 Torneträsk trees from years 441-1980 AD are studied in millennial, centennial and volcanic scales.

Only 65 trees?
Well at least they cover a long time period.
But I would really like another proxy to calibrate the tree rings against. Tree rings are affected by so many factors.
Confession: I haven’t read beyond the abstract

MattN

It’s still a hockey stick…if you hold it just right….

How I love the MWP! Knowing about it is tremendously liberating.
A link to my cartoon on this topic (I link to this article in the mouseover and the references)
http://itsnotclimatescience.com/0012.2.html
This study I found a while ago is very interesting too:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/archaeologists-uncover-clues-to-why-vikings-abandoned-greenland-a-876626.html

Rob aka Flatlander

How is any of this news? Why is it called green land again?

The idea that some may have tried to “erase the MWP” may not be something that can be proven by an actual document, but it sure does seem like papers like this one were, if not suppressed, never given any press, (and likely given little funding for follow-up studies.)
The problem is that the MWP was real, and was warmer, and therefore any honest study will find evidence of the truth. Attempting to “erase” such a truth is like attempting to put out a fire by stamping sparks on the floor, when it is the ceiling that is burning.
The Greenland Vikings, at the height of their prosperity, were raising 2000 cows and 100,000 sheep and goats in a single district of their colony. They couldn’t import fodder for the long winters and had no electronic devises for keeping the animal’s drinking water unfrozen. To imagine conditions were anything like current conditions is the imagination of a complete dunderhead.
What is really amazing about those Greenland Vikings is that they hung on so long after it got cold. For the final hundred years it makes no sense. Their economy likely involved some element we don’t know about, (and which they didn’t tell Europe about.) It’s a wonderful mystery still waiting to be solved.

Well they didn’t use a running mean to smooth their data , so they seem to have half an idea what they’re doing at least. Good sign.

sabretruthtiger

The cool period: volcanoes or the sun, or both?
Solar activity should be mentioned as a major factor.

JimS

Your average warmist alarmist will come back with, “Yah, but this was only a regional warming. The actual global temperature was far lower than it is today.”
Remember, it is the church of the warmist alarmists we are dealing with.

pochas

I doubt if there was anything special about the recent “Modern Warm Period.” I’m waiting for Charvatova’s 2,400 year major cycle to be refuted, but if it isn’t then we have one more Jose cycle (179 years) to go before the next real 300 year long “Warm Period.” Meanwhile, we shovel snow.

NevenA

My problems with how this is reported:
1. The name of the paper and its authors should be in the first paragraph, not at the end of the article. It’s A 70-80 year peridiocity identified from tree ring temperatures AD 550 – 1980 in Northern Scandinavia by Juhani Rinne, Mikko Alestalo, Arto Miettinen. The title already tells us two things.
2. Northern Scandinavia gets extrapolated to ‘the Arctic’.
3. What has happened to temperatures in Northern Scandinavia after 1980? I believe it is said that global warming proceeds about 4 times as fast as globally at those latitudes. Can HockeySchtick or Anthony Watts please provide a graph?
For instance, I have found September average for Tromsø here. The graph is difficult to eyeball because of the small Y-axis, but to me it looks like on average Tromsø has warmed over 2 °C in September since 1980.

Henry Clark

Very long ago, my journey to skepticism began when a global warming scare article slipped up by mentioning, in passing, the amount that sea levels were higher than present during the MWP (which seemed rather curious for a supposedly small regional event and sparked further investigation).
While this Rinne et al. paper’s primary attribution of the temperature history would be a separate topic, the shape of their arctic temperature histories in figure 1 (aside from the green one which is weird) look somewhat like multi-proxy estimates (including non-tree-ring) from other sources for history of the overall Northern Hemisphere average, as in versus a plot 3/4ths of the way down in http://img103.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=28747_expanded_overview3_122_966lo.jpg .
(Based on other data, generally the Northern Hemisphere temperature average tends to follow a pattern historically rather similar to the arctic, albeit with the arctic warming/cooling more in quantitative terms).
With that said, if comparing to another plot in the prior link, for the double peak of arctic temperature history over the 20th century, something is weird with the magnitude of the temperature scale in the Rinne et al. paper’s plots, as they start to show that double peak but at far smaller a fraction of a degree Celsius.
Probably part of what may be going on is from the Rinne et al. usage of a tree ring proxy reconstruction, with tree rings of some utility but rather imperfect.
The Rinne et al. paper source given is just a version paywalled aside from the abstract and plots, though, so evaluating it would take more anyway.

SAMURAI

It’s interesting to see that the Wolf (1280~1350), Sporer (1450~1550), Maunder (1645~1715) and Dalton (1790~1820) Grand Solar Minima correspond precisely with cold Periods shown in fig. 4 of this paper…
Since there seems to be growing evidence the Sun could be entering another Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) from 2020, this will be yet another nail in the coffin of the CAGW hypothesis as we’d likely experience an extended cool period.
If we do suffer through another GSM, ironically, the added CO2 will improve crop yields to help offset some of the effects of shorter growing seasons, and the tiny 0.25C~0.5C of plausible AGW would actually lessen the negative effects of a GSM….
Oh, the irony of it all… Rising CO2 levels may actually end up saving millions from famine and exposure….

Greg

Mike – It’s still a hockey stick…if you hold it just right
It looks like a hockey stick after a stiff cross check snapped in the middle. Usually results in a major penalty if you break the stick

Yes, at the start of the 20th Century a Norwegian chap called Roald Amundsen decided, in the name of scientific exploration, to chase a “fable”. The fable was that in the days of old it was possible to cut the journey to “Vinland” (Now North America) short by sailing through the waters to the North West of Greenland, which at certain times would be open to shipping. In 1903 he managed to do just that, but it took a long time and it was realized that the North West waters was not as warm then as they must have been in the past. But at least he had proved that the “Fable” was likely to have its roots in real history. Could these “roots” belong in the Medieval Warm Period?
By the way, it may be interesting, to some of us, that at and around the year 1903 there was a “Solar Minimum” a bit akin to the one we are experiencing now. What the “Jet Stream” or Polar Vortex was doing then I do not know, nor do I know what kind of activity was taking place at the “Sea Floor” way up there in the Arctic Ocean. – In other words; – “Was there high, or was there low volcanic sea floor activity? –
“Volcanic Sea Floor Activity” (VSFA) in the Arctic Ocean is likely to have been fairly high lately as the Volcanoes and Geysers on Iceland have been, as far as I know, quite busy. — Or busy enough to ground a large part of the world’s Air Traffic (AT)

sabretruthtiger

Caleb says “The idea that some may have tried to “erase the MWP” may not be something that can be proven by an actual document”
Ahem: http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/9292009-confirmed—global-warming-hockey-stick-is-a-fraud/blog-180309/

Henry Clark

SAMURAI:
With regard to your prior post, potentially you might find the following of interest (where a plot since 800 A.D. is in it, not at the top but a ways down), the same link as in my earlier comment except the slightly newer version I meant to post:
http://img16.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=22187_expanded_overview3_122_176lo.jpg

sabretruthtiger

Sorry, it’s not exactly a peer reviewed paper but the weight of evidence involving blatant cherry-picking, abnormally large and inexplicable weighting given to the flawed ‘warming biased’ bristlecone pine data makes it obvious that it was intentional. Not to mention the program used created a hockeystick even with red noise input.

Olavi

Mikko Alestalo is Director of FMI Finnish meteorolocigal institute and has been wery active warmist with AGW group. Is this study some backdoor and is there going to come some more? Is their seats so hot allready?

NevenA says:
“Northern Scandinavia gets extrapolated to ‘the Arctic’.”
Nothern Scandinavia is north of the Arctic circle:
http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm

Jimbo

Ahhhh those were the days.
H.H. Lamb1965
The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel
The Arctic pack ice was so much less extensive than in recent times that appearances of drift ice near Iceland and Greenland south of 70[deg] N, were apparently rare in the 10th century and unknown between 1020 and 1194, when a rapid increase of frequency caused a permanent change of shipping routes. Brooks suggested that the Arctic Ocean became ice-free in the summers of this epoch, as in the Climatic Optimum; but it seems more probable that there was some ‘permanent’ ice, limited to areas north of 80[deg] N….”
Elsevier Publishing Company
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 1:1965, p. 15-16
Variations In Climate
Press, Volume XLIV, Issue 6903, 8 November 1887, Page 6
By Alexander Beck, M.E.
“…The reverse of that state of things is found by calculations for the year 1122 A.D., and it is precisely at that time that we find the Danes and several Scandinavian nations going through the Arctic open seas. Colonies are established by them in the highest north latitude of Greenland, and upper part of North America, a long time before Christoper Columbus had reached a more southern part of the same continent….”
http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&cl=search&d=CHP18871108.2.35&srpos=133&e=——-100–101—-0glaciers+melting
Abstract
Micheal Mann et. al.
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation
… Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system,….
doi:10.5194/cp-5-389-2009
I wonder whether there are any colonies established in the highest north latitude of Greenland today? Coming up next is our tree lines.

Tom J

Claude Harvey
January 28, 2014 at 6:29 am
says:
‘Ever notice how everyone uses “tree rings” only when those rings tell them what they wish to see? Gotta’ “filter” those babies. Otherwise, they’re all over the map. Just sayin’.’
Aw, c’mon. At least the Tornetrask (sorry about the missing dots over the ‘a’ – I’m on an i-Phone) trees are in the Arctic Circle. Last time I checked California and Nevada weren’t. But then again, you may have a point.
“Mommy, Michael pulled my hair and took my trees!”
“Mikey, give those trees back to Sarah. Now!”
“I didn’t take Sarah’s trees.”
“Mikey did too take my trees.”
“I did not!”
“You did too!”
“I did not!”
And thus was born Climate Science: another indication that humanity has a ways to go on its tenuous march towards maturity.

pochas

SAMURAI says:
January 28, 2014 at 7:29 am
“Since there seems to be growing evidence the Sun could be entering another Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) from 2020…”
Yes, and we have still another GSM to go through starting in 2,200 before we get to the next 300 year warm period starting in 2,400. We need to stop freaking about routine climate change.

Gary Pearse

Gee, only 0.5C warmer? That is a record that will encourage desperate upward adjustments by a shell-shocked CAGW team. We can’t seem to get thermometers this accurate in the climate record. Also look at the swings in north of 80 temps (DMI) on the sea ice page. Anyway, there is abundant data in the form of history and other markers that the arctic has been warmer than today. How about driftwood and sandy beaches formed by wave action on the northernmost coast of Greenland that during our times is never free of ice.
http://www.bitsofscience.org/arctic-sea-ice-holocene-2614/

Juice

How is this “so much for arctic amplification”? It was warmer in the MWP and the arctic was warmer still.

Paul Westhaver

1) Is tree ring proxy data in this region reliable?
2) To what level of precision is the proxy known? Where is the error band?
3) The average of the 4 plots make for a pretty broad swath.

There is really nothing new here. Back in the early 1990s Jonathan Overpeck did a study in the same general area over the same period and had the same result. I’ll google it up later. That result made him ponder that the medieval warm period did not need to be global, denouncing it’s existence in the AGU 1997 fall meeting (I seem to remember)..

Think about what you would argue if the results gave you the opposite answer
1. treemometers are bogus
2. pal review
3. only 65 trees
4. it only goes to 1980, update the proxies
blah, blah blah.
Bottom line. we have some evidence it was warmer in certain regions during the MWP,
some evidence it wasn’t as warm. All in all the uncertainty is high across all types of uncertainty.
real bottom line: MWP says nothing about ow much warming we will see.

Jimbo

Here are some past tree lines.

Abstract
Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone
G.M MacDonald et al – 2007
…..Dendroecological studies indicate enhanced conifer recruitment during the twentieth century. However, conifers have not yet recolonized many areas where trees were present during the Medieval Warm period (ca AD 800–1300) or the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; ca 10 000–3000 years ago).
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2283.short
———————————-
Abstract
Holocene Climate Reconstructions from the Fennoscandian Tree-Line Area Based on Pollen Data from Toskaljavri
….values during the “Medieval Warm Period” (ca. 1400–1000 cal yr B.P.) were ca. 0.8°C higher that at present but decreased rapidly to the low “Little Ice Age” levels at 800 cal yr B.P. We compare these results with an earlier pollen-based climate reconstruction from the same region…….
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589401923130
———————————–
Abstract
Temperature patterns over the past eight centuries in Northern Fennoscandia inferred from sedimentary diatoms
……Establishing natural climate variability becomes particularly important in remote polar regions, especially when considering questions regarding higher than average warming. We present a high-resolution record of temperature variability for the past 800 yr based on sedimentary diatoms from a treeline lake in Finnish Lapland. The BSiZer multiscale smoothing technique is applied to the data to identify significant features in the record at different temporal levels. The overall reconstruction shows relatively large multi-centennial temperature variability with a total range of about 0.6–0.8°C. ……
doi: dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2006.01.005
Quaternary Research – Volume 66, Issue 1, July 2006, Pages 78–86

And one man’s tree rings against another Mann’s.

Abstract
Torneträsk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers
This paper presents updated tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) from Torneträsk in northern Sweden, now covering the period ad 500–2004. By including data from relatively young trees for the most recent period, a previously noted decline in recent MXD is eliminated. Non-climatological growth trends in the data are removed using Regional Curve Standardization (RCS), thus producing TRW and MXD chronologies with preserved low-frequency variability. The chronologies are calibrated using local and regional instrumental climate records. A bootstrapped response function analysis using regional climate data shows that tree growth is forced by April–August temperatures and that the regression weights for MXD are much stronger than for TRW. The robustness of the reconstruction equation is verified by independent temperature data and shows that 63–64% of the instrumental inter-annual variation is captured by the tree-ring data. This is a significant improvement compared to previously published reconstructions based on tree-ring data from Torneträsk. A divergence phenomenon around ad 1800, expressed as an increase in TRW that is not paralleled by temperature and MXD, is most likely an effect of major changes in the density of the pine population at this northern tree-line site. The bias introduced by this TRW phenomenon is assessed by producing a summer temperature reconstruction based on MXD exclusively. The new data show generally higher temperature estimates than previous reconstructions based on Torneträsk tree-ring data. The late-twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record: On decadal-to-centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer. The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century (p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Torneträsk suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized.
10.1007/s00382-007-0358-2

Jimbo

Paul Westhaver says:
January 28, 2014 at 8:11 am
1) Is tree ring proxy data in this region reliable?
2) To what level of precision is the proxy known? Where is the error band?
3) The average of the 4 plots make for a pretty broad swath.

That’s why I prefer past tree lines, some of which I mention above.
Here is another sign of the Medieval Warm Epoch in Alaska.

An ancient forest has thawed from under a melting glacier in Alaska and is now exposed to the world for the first time in more than 1,000 years.
…..A protective tomb of gravel likely encased the trees more than 1,000 years ago, when the glacier was advancing, Connor said, basing the date on radiocarbon ages of the newly revealed wood. As glaciers advance, Connor explained, they often emit summer meltwater streams that spew aprons of gravel beyond the glacier’s edge…….
http://www.livescience.com/39819-ancient-forest-thaws.html

JBJ

This find suggests it was a lot warmer in the Canadian high Arctic 400+ years ago:
“A biologist has discovered 400-year-old moss in Nunavut. The moss was buried under a glacier on Ellesmere Island where it survived under the ice.”
http://www.sci-news.com/biology/article01112-400-year-old-plants-moss.html

Jarmo

NevenA:
3. What has happened to temperatures in Northern Scandinavia after 1980? I believe it is said that global warming proceeds about 4 times as fast as globally at those latitudes. Can HockeySchtick or Anthony Watts please provide a graph?
As this presentation about European Arctic temperatures in the past 100 years (including Greenland and Sodankylä in Finnish Lapland) concluded:
Mann-Kendalls non-parametric test revealed that only a few series (from Iceland and northern Norway) show a statistically significant warming (5% level or better) from 1900 to 2002. Førland et al. (2002) actually concluded that none of the stations in Figure 1 showed a statistically significant warming from 1910-1999.
http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/abstracts/posters/Session_1/poster_s1_009.pdf
You can check Sodankylä which has the longest continuous Lapland record (1908-2008) in Finland from NASA GISS:
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
Station Data: Sodankyla (67.4 N,26.6 E
As you can see, temperatures today are slightly higher than 1930-1950. Maybe 0.3 C. The reason for big “jump” in global warming is that the coldest period in 100 years was between 1965-1985. You draw a trend line from 1965 to 2010 and it looks like temps went up by 2 degrees C.

Jim G

Caleb says:
“For the final hundred years it makes no sense. Their economy likely involved some element we don’t know about, (and which they didn’t tell Europe about.) It’s a wonderful mystery still waiting to be solved.”
Viking economy was based for many years upon rape, pillage and looting. Monestaries were prime targets and anywhere there was a port, ocean or river or whatever, they showed up, took the gold and silver and left their genes behind. I have a short dark family tree with one great grandfather who was well over 6 feet tall with blond hair and light eyes and here and there in our family those traits pop up now and then. We have old photos (black and white of course) of him and his family, great-grandmother of Greek extraction, short and dark, great-grandfather tall and fair, small children as he was young in the picture so his hair was not grey or white but blond. Don’t know about the final 100 years as that of which I speak was the Vikings’ economy of 1000 or so years ago. Greenland was one of the few cases I know of where they stayed for very long. Maybe they just went back to their old practices.

Jarmo

NevenA: . What has happened to temperatures in Northern Scandinavia after 1980? I believe it is said that global warming proceeds about 4 times as fast as globally at those latitudes. Can HockeySchtick or Anthony Watts please provide a graph?
Just go to NASA GISS and put in station name or use this address:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/find_station.cgi?dt=1&ds=14&name=Sodankyla
Click Sodankyla and you’ll get the data. It is the same story in European Arctic in the past 100 years: very little warming. 2000-2010 is maybe 0.3 C warmer compared to 1930-1950 period.
But if you cherrypick and choose 1965 as your starting year, very impressive warming in order of 2 degrees C. 1965-1985 was the coldest period during the past 100 years in the European Arctic

Jimbo says:
“Ahhhh those were the days.
“H.H. Lamb – 1965
“The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel… I wonder whether there are any colonies established in the highest north latitude of Greenland today? Coming up next is our tree lines.”
Thanks for that. Yes, the MWP was global and warmer than today. Those facts were completely uncontested prior to the “carbon”/global warming scare.
==========================
Steven Mosher says:
“MWP says nothing about (h)ow much warming we will see.”
I beg to differ. The MWP occurred toward the tail end of the Holocene warming. Each peak was somewhat less warm than the previous peak. Therefore, it tells us that current and future warming cycles will probably be less warm.
For those who haven’t seen it, this animation puts the current *mild* and natural global warming cycle into perspective. There is nothing either unusual or unprecedented in today’s climate. Catastrophic AGW is nothing but a massive head-fake, and AGW itself — if it exists — is only a tiny, insignificant forcing that should be completely disregarded when discussing national and international policy.

hunter

@ Steve Mosher,
The tree rings may or may not be telling us about the future climate, but taken as a whole, they show us that neither does the consensus view. And especially we should be able to agree that the models tell us about the same.

Tom Mills

Different part of the world but is this relevant? http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674nunavut_still_keen_to_protect_axel_heibergs_ancient_fossil_forest/
Actually the tree stumps are mummified, not fossilized. They look & feel like real wood not stone.

CEH

dbstealey says:
January 28, 2014 at 7:44 am
“NevenA says:
“Northern Scandinavia gets extrapolated to ‘the Arctic’.”
Nothern Scandinavia is north of the Arctic circle:”
For a definition of the Arctic, please look at the reference page Northern Regional Sea Ice Page at this blogs´masthead. Btw. it´s the Polar circle.

more soylent green!

The real bottom line — It was warmer in the past and the world didn’t come to an end. CO2 has also been higher in the past, BTW, and the world didn’t come to an end then, either. And just one more — the high CO2 periods and warm periods don’t always correspond.
But the past tells us nothing about the future. Only models can tell us that.
#heavy sarcasm

JJM Gommers

Interesting that it coincided with the haydays of the Vikins(Warjagen).

RichieP

Jim G says:
January 28, 2014 at 9:39 am
‘Viking economy was based for many years upon rape, pillage and looting. Monestaries were prime targets and anywhere there was a port, ocean or river or whatever, they showed up, took the gold and silver and left their genes behind…. Don’t know about the final 100 years as that of which I speak was the Vikings’ economy of 1000 or so years ago. Greenland was one of the few cases I know of where they stayed for very long. Maybe they just went back to their old practices.’
This is not remotely the case. Greenland settlement, like a lot of Scandinavian settlement all over Europe in this period, was fundamentally about getting and holding land, trading, farming, fishing and the exploitation of animal resources (furs, skins etc.), once the initial periods of conflict and raiding were over. These Vikings were ubiquitous traders and travellers all over Europe, modern western Russia, down to the Ukraine, the Byzantine empire and into Muslim lands, as well as fierce opponents to their more civilised neighbours if necessary. Some of them were liberty fans, moving to avoid the authoritarian rule of monarchs – as was the case in the initial settling of Iceland.
The history of the ‘Vikings’ is far more about these factors, especially in relation to Greenland where there were no obvious targets for rape, pillage and worthwhile looting, and certainly no handy rich monasteries to sack. It’s just too far away and a very risky trip to make, either way. Violent neighbour disputes and feuds occurred perhaps (they are certainly common enough in Icelandic history) but not what you describe here.
By the time the Greenlanders gave up they were all Christians anyway and presumably regarded the place as their home, however hard it was. Also, the climatic downturn didn’t just happen overnight and people will hang on if they can, adapting as they can to the changing conditions. It will have taken two or three generations for people to finally realise this wasn’t just a blip in the weather and that a decent life was no longer possible.

M Courtney

Steven Mosher says at January 28, 2014 at 8:39 am

Think about what you would argue if the results gave you the opposite answer
1. treemometers are bogus
2. pal review
3. only 65 trees
4. it only goes to 1980, update the proxies

Look at my post near the top (January 28, 2014 at 6:41 am).
I gave you 1 and 3.
Point 4 isn’t important with respect to the MWP; that predates the 1980s.
Why do you suspect point 2?

Adam Gallon

Bottom line, trees aren’t accurate thermometers?

Janne Pohjala

This is astounding, authors of this study are from FMI, Finnish Meteorological Institute. This is like UK MetOffice would say, Oops, sorry about wiping MWP off the charts, here it is back, stronger than ever, even hotter than today. Mr Mann is going to have a bad hair day.
a Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI – 00101 Helsinki, FINLAND
b Department of Geosciences and Geography, P.O. Box 64, FI – 00014 University of Helsinki FINLAND

MFKBoulder

Quote “Furthermore, the authors find a natural 70-80 year oscillation of temperatures, similar to the 60-70 year oscillation of the natural PDO”.
My funny thought: You have a 75 year cycle and a 65 yer cycle. How far are the peaks apart after 4 cycles?