A paper published January 21st in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs storm activity in Iceland over the past 1,200 years and finds storminess and extreme weather variability was far more common during the Little Ice Age in comparison to the Medieval Warm Period and the 20th century. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications finding global warming decreases storm activity, the opposite of claims by climate alarmists.
The graph below shows storm activity shown in 2nd graph from top was much greater and more variable during the Little Ice Age in comparison to the Medieval Warm Period and the 20th century. Top graph shows one of Mann’s bogus hockey sticks in red, and another non-hockey-stick reconstruction in grey [Moberg et al 2005].
Fig. 8. Multiple proxies of environmental change in Iceland AD 700–2000. (a) Two multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST, Mann et al., 2009) and Moberg et al. (2005). (b) Shows GISP2 Na+ deviations from the mean, a proxy for storminess (Meeker and Mayewski, 2002). Cumulative deviations from the mean show a shift to stormier and windier conditions around AD 1425 (Dugmore et al., 2007). (c) Changes in total organic carbon at Lake Haukadalsvatn, west Iceland used as a proxy for aeolian erosion (Geirsdóttir et al., 2009). Bold horizontal bars show means over periods matching key tephra horizons in study (see Table 1). (d) Woodland cover is represented by Betulapollen percentages from a lake core near Lake Mývatn, north Iceland (Lawson et al., 2007) and charcoal pits present in south Iceland (Church et al., 2007) (e) Mean aggregate SeAR from Skaftártunga for period separated by dated tephra layers, with 1 standard deviation show by grey shading. Mean calculated where n = >10. (f) Mean aggregate SeAR at the scale of the landholding, from two small landholdings (Hrífunes and Flaga, see Fig. 1d). (g) Change in SeAR at the landscape scale, 2 stratigraphic sections which record the onset of increased erosion at AD 1597, but profile 38 shows stability through the entire settlement period prior to AD 1918. (h) Population trends in Iceland. Prior to the first census in AD 1703 estimates are based on medieval populations being similar to or even higher than the population in AD 1703 (90 and 43). Plague reductions of ∼40% in AD 1402–1404 and ∼30% in AD 1496 are shown (Karlsson, 1996).
The paper:
Late-Holocene land surface change in a coupled social–ecological system, southern Iceland: a cross-scale tephrochronology approach
Richard Streeter, Andrew Dugmore
Highlights
• Tephrochronology can be used to produce cross scale-analysis of land surface change.
• Grímsvötn tephras are dated to AD 1432 ± 5 and AD 1457 ± 5.
• High resolution 1200-year record of land surface change from Skaftártunga, south Iceland.
• Increasing spatial heterogeneity in sediment accumulation rates after AD ∼870.
• Relationship between climate, vegetation cover and land surface change contingent on past conditions.
Abstract
The chronological challenge of cross-scale analysis within coupled socio-ecological systems can be met with tephrochronology based on numerous well-dated tephra layers. We illustrate this with an enhanced chronology from Skaftártunga, south Iceland that is based on 200 stratigraphic profiles and 2635 individual tephra deposits from 23 different eruptions within the last 1140 years. We present new sediment-accumulation rate based dating of tephra layers from Grímsvötn in AD 1432 ± 5 and AD 1457 ± 5. These and other tephras underpin an analysis of land surface stability across multiple scales. The aggregate regional sediment accumulation records suggest a relatively slow rate of land surface change which can be explained by climate and land use change over the period of human occupation of the island (after AD ∼870), but the spatial patterning of change shows that it is more complex, with landscape scale hysteresis and path dependency making the relationship between climate and land surface instability contingent. An alternative steady state of much higher rates of sediment accumulation is seen in areas below 300 m asl after AD ∼870 despite large variations in climate, with two phases of increased erosion, one related to vegetation change (AD 870–1206) and another related to climate (AD 1597–1918). In areas above 300 m asl there is a short lived increase in erosion and related deposition after settlement (AD ∼870–935) and then relatively little additional change to present. Spatial correlation between rates of sediment accumulation at different profiles decreases rapidly after AD ∼935 from ∼4 km to less than 250 m as the landscape becomes more heterogeneous. These new insights are only possible using high-resolution tephrochronology applied spatially across a landscape, an approach that can be applied to the large areas of the Earth’s surface affected by the repeated fallout of cm-scale tephra layers.
This article was originally published on The Hockey Schtick, and presented here with some minor edits for format and clarity.
While it is always nice to have studies that support your position, I do not think there is any way to reconstruct storms from the past. I am not buying it and I don’t care whose side it supports. That is just more junk science and we have enough of that already. This study is just one more proof that climatology is crackpot junk-science.
You mean new BS study indicates a decrease in sever weather. There people have no shame.
A new study has suggested causality between an imaginary problem and the weather!!
This is the exact OPPOSITE of what Al Gore said just a couple of years ago!
I’m so confused. I thought the science was, uhh, “settled”.
Is anybody keeping track of how close we are to the threshold of “New study: Whatever happens, it’s AGW that caused it”? Like approaching asteroids, for example?
If the earth’s temperature rises, it’s global warming. If it cools, it’s a consequence of global warming. If there’s a violent storm, it’s global warming. If there are fewer violent storms, it’s global warming.
How about all you global warming nuts just tell me how much this emergency is going to cost me in coinage and freedoms, then we can get down to solving the “problem”…
These people can’t even get the weather forecasts right 14 days out of a Super Bowl, and so we are supposed to believe these idiots on Global Warming? You have got to be kidding? Liberals are the worst liars of all time.
This goes with the concept of Carnot’s theorem in a recent article here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/28/climate-as-a-heat-engine/ ….theory and observation starting to match, now, that is satisfying.
Paul Pierett says: @ur momisugly January 25, 2014 at 8:37 am
….Something to look at. How else would the earth have glacier growth if not weaker sunspot cycles bringing on stronger winter storms?
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You might find Steve Goddard’s thread on the polar vortex HERE interesting.
Jimbo says: @ur momisugly January 25, 2014 at 9:03 am
…. How can I get through to someone who does not want to be gotten through to? 🙂
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Challenge then to put their money where their mouth is… Hand over your car keys and the keys to your home.
(Only do this to pontificating loud mouths in front of their friends because the loud mouth will never ever speak to you again. However the rest of the crowd will laugh their heads off.)
99.99% of these people are hypocrites and if that is pointed out most people will catch onto the fact it is actually about ‘do as I say and not as I do’ control. Making fun of the If it is Hot it is global warming, if it is cold it is global warming, if it is sunny …..
And then go to:
If its money into Warren Buffet’s pocket ( In 2008 he became the richest man on earth) it is global warming
If it is people freezing to death in Europe it is global warming.
People may not understand physics and all we discuss here at WUWT but they do understand when they are being scammed and someone is riping them off.
It might be interesting to calculate the cost per person of the Green Scam. The US debt is now $54,395.96 per citizen.
By decreasing the temperature difference between the equator and the pole, global warming reduces the efficiency of the Carnot cycle engine that drives the weather. Back of the envelope, 4 degrees warming of the poles reduces the current 20% efficiency to 18% efficiency.
JimS says: @ur momisugly January 25, 2014 at 9:46 am
Blah weather is what directly precedes another 100,000 years of glaciation. Vive les extreme weather events.
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Actually it is the opposite. you can see how jagged the descent into glaciation is
http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yearslarge.gif (present is on right)
The Eemian was the last interglacial.
Dave Ippolito says: @ur momisugly January 27, 2014 at 7:35 am
…Hey Al… do you sell space heaters.
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I am in mid North Carolina and retired. We have already shut off the heat permanently and only use space heaters in winter to save money. We have had lows of 9 °F (- 13 °C) this year and have Winter Storm Warning in effect for tomorrow. My general house temp this week was under 40 °F (4 °C)
We can not cut our electric bill much more and the EPA has made the price of wood stoves outrageous. This is assuming that wood stoves will not be banned outright. We would have to use the type that is an exterior stand alone and hooks to the forced hot air system since the house has no chimney. For a good one it $3,000 – $5,000 not including building, installation. I guess we had better start saving up.
Gail, you are quite the powerhouse commenter! Keeping warm by typing? Try pricing a new exterior chimney and internal woodstove for comparison, if that works for your place. A good woodstove runs $500 and up. Wood heat works for us in Michigan!
The little ice age and our recent increase in global temperatures were both caused by the same thing, the cyclical changes in the nearness of the other planets in our solar system to the earth. from now until 2027 there will be cold weather, from then until 2059 the weather will be warmer, then afterward, colder. Astrologists know what the weather will do because they study the planets and note what happens here on earth.