Top post for a day or two, new posts will appear below this one.
Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:
D’Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.
This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th.
It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.
The mainstream media blames it on global warming of course.http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-freezing-104500272–politics.html
UCAR downplayed the last brutal cold as being brief unlike the cold of the 1970s and 1980s.http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10928/cold-but-brief
Lets revisit their insightful analysis after the next few weeks.
1917/18 and 1993/94 were winters Joe Bastardi and I have been looking at. See the similarity of the SSTA in the Pacific in Jan/Feb 1918 to this year.
January 1918:
January 2014:
That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska drives the persistent Alaska and western ridge and downstream cold vortex. That year had an extremely cold January.
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Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.
WeatherBell models expert Dr. Ryan Maue adds:
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/425700249076654080
Meanwhile, weather, not climate, is hitting the US government hard:
Federal Government Shuts Down for Snow Storm Offices in Washington, D.C., are closed for the second time this winter.
Snow falling in Washington area; 4 to 7 inches expected, as flights canceled across US





vukcevic says:
January 21, 2014 at 1:26 pm
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Keep doing what you do. You have had my attention for quite some time.
I don’t know the answers but you offer pretty good relationships in your graphs. If you post it I’ll be looking at it. But then that begs the question …. who am I? The answer to that [may] be just some lurker with eyes wide open.
new: timeline from Fairfax journos who were on the Aurora Australis:
22 Jan: SMH: Nicky Phillips/Colin Cosier: Stuck In The Ice
The inside story of how a polar expedition went terribly wrong, leaving dozens of tourists and scientists trapped in the ice.
The leaders were also receiving daily weather forecasts from three sources, the Bureau of Meteorology’s forecasters at Casey station, a private forecasting company in Europe and the ship’s onboard weather station. From this information Mortimer estimated the team had 15 to 18 hours before the weather deteriorated, and 24 hours before a more serious change was expected…
In the days following their rescue, Turney said the insurance claims were “yet to be discussed”.
“Who is paying? At the moment, we’re not sure,” he said….
This account has been reconstructed from interviews with members of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013/14, most of whom wished to remain anonymous, who witnessed events or overheard conversations, and the report the voyage leader, Greg Mortimer, submitted to IAATO.
Mortimer declined to comment on his report.
The Shokalskiy’s captain, Igor Kielev, did not respond to Fairfax Media’s emails.
Chris Turney and Chris Fogwill, the expedition leaders, also declined to comment on specific questions regarding events on December 23.
Nicky Phillips and Colin Cosier travelled on board the Aurora Australis as part of the Australian Antarctic Division’s media fellowship program.
http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2014/stuck-in-the-ice/
Brrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
‘They’ have wonderful timing don’t they? Releasing this ‘headline’ at this time with a cold snap en route … maybe this is their weak attempt to cheer us up?
/mild sarc
.
Gunga Din says:
January 21, 2014 at 8:10 pm
I don’t think those storms were particularly cold, certainly not the northeast’s Blizzard, see my account at http://wermenh.com/blizz78.html Best drive ever in a snow storm for me!
In Ohio, I guess it got cold, see
http://www.wsaz.com/blogs/askjosh/Ohio_River_Frozen__Rare_Pictures_Included_115481714.html
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=ohio_river_freeze
Mabe the west will have a late rainy season in late febuary on into march that brings record breaking precip? It has happened before I suppose.
So Al Gore is in Washington for the next two weeks?
Perhaps AL can make even more money by being paid not to visit.
I hope it [warms] up before February, I am going back up north at the end of the month. The last round of cold weather in western North Dakota my sons water frozen up on his manufactured home, when he crawled under it to check the heat tape he had a remote thermometer he could not find anything warmer than -27 F. I don’t want to return to that. I would [rather] remain in AZ after all it was 82 F today.
Mike Maguire:
Thanks for the info and the link. I’m watching three things: the weather (45 day Accuweather extended forecast), in-ground storage forecast and NG price. If the forecast calls for primarily above average highs, I’ll take my profit (they currently show 36 of the next 45 days being below average for the Mid-West and East). If the projected end of the season underground storage is above 1 T cu ft when NG prices hit 4.50 (which it should if hit we go Feb and Mar with consistently below avg temps), I’ll bail. I’m not sure what I’ll do if projected end of the season storage is at or below 1 T cu ft, since that would put NG storage supplies in a crisis state, and prices would soar. I hope that doesn’t happen. Making money is nice but not if it stems from a situation that could cause great harm to many.
Hope that makes sense.
Fun to watch. More fun to make money by being a contrarian to the ‘settled science’ of CAGW.
Good luck with your trades.
@jtom at 10:26 pm
I’m not sure what I’ll do if projected end of the season storage is at or below 1 T cu ft, since that would put NG storage supplies in a crisis state, and prices would soar. I hope that doesn’t happen.
I hope it does. What this country needs is a close call on a natural gas shortage that gets heeded. I don’t know if it will be enough, but nothing short of that will stop the EPA from shutting down countless gigawatts of coal fired powerplants. For once those plants are shut down, and the EPA will have them scrapped one way or another, the next cold winter will grow into a full blown early 70’s Natural Gas shortage with closed factories and schools.
This is exactly the January weather that David Archibald postulated for _next_ year, here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/05/further-to-a-1740-type-event/ and here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/18/two-years-to-a-1740-type-event/
David had his charts lining up for the cold weather in 2015. But it seems we have quite the massive cold spell in 2014. It will be fascinating (and scary) to see if the rest of this year matches the curve, whether this is just a precursor to an even more damaging 2015 freeze, or whether the pattern diverges from here.
Seriously people! What is the “norm” he is using for this anomaly map?
The eastern US has had unusually mild winters for the last 30 years (usually). Even when if get a big snow, it rarely goes subzero anymore. I remember that in the midatatlantic states we would always get about a week or two at the end of January-beginning of February where the daytime highs might be in the teens and that, combined with some wind, made hot cocoa and slowly dripping faucets a regular thing. Joe can get as hyperbolic as he wants. The eastern US can take the cold.
re: arthur4563 says: January 21, 2014 at 1:14 pm
Arthur, I don’t have a clue where you got that information from, but conditions in the trenches were notoriously horrendous. Large numbers of men died from tuberculosis and other diseases. Influenza was also a huge problem that war conditions and travel definitely helped spread..
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918
Jet stream moves to already very far to the south.
http://earth.nullschool.net/jp/#2014/01/25/2100Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-349.12,64.55,277
I note the Yahoo story says we are “frying eggs on shovels” in Australia. It neglects to mention that temperatures in much of the northern part of Oz have been considerably lower than average during most of January. While Adelaide had maxes in the mid 40s (celsius), Alice Springs was basking in low thirties. Of course not as many people live in the north, so southern warmists overlook the effect of its temperatures on the national average.
Mike Maguire says:
January 21, 2014 at 3:07 pm
………….
Hi.
Thanks for your comments. I get regularly ‘castigated’ by Dr. S. To be fair he’s been very helpful in providing information, without his sometime direct help and the regular appearances on the WUWT, I wouldn’t have done even 10% of the so called ‘research’. I have a sneaky feeling that in a way he wants this controversial stuff to come out so he can deny and run it in into the ground while he is still around.
Back to sun and the climate. I think what is happening is that solar ‘thing’ has a double bite at the cherry, first directly and secondly some years later via rather complex feedback provided by our ‘terra amata’. S. America is ‘lucky’ to have ENSO, circumpolar 4 year wave oscillation, geomagnetic equator and finally S. A. magnetic anomaly. Only thing I could say is good lack with your forecasting.
Several people have been critical of the linking of the disastrous “Spanish Flu” outbreak in 1918, with the weather, arguing that there was no connection between the two. However, there may be a connection if the theory of the great British cosmologist, Fred Hoyle, and his Indian colleague Chandra Wickramasinghe, is correct. They claimed that the flu viruses originate in outer space and they mention the spread of the 1918-19 pandemic as evidence.
Influenza from Space?
http://www.panspermia.org/panfluenza.htm
The lethal wave of influenza in 1918-19… was first detected on the same day in Boston and Bombay. Yet in spreading within the United States it took three weeks to go from Boston to New York. — Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe (1)
One of Hoyle and Wickramasinghe’s more controversial claims is that influenza outbreaks are often caused by newly arriving viruses from space. Among several lines of evidence, they noticed that the worst flu epidemics coincide with peaks in the eleven-year cycle of sunspot activity. When an unusually vigorous flu epidemic again matched the pattern in January, 2000, they renewed the story in Current Science, a weekly journal of the Indian Academy of Sciences. …
Further to my previous message here is some more information from the writings of Hoyle and Wickramasinghe on the link between influenza and the winter weather. I have shortened it by omitting some paragraphs.
The Dilemma of Influenza by Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/talk.origins/vJ5IRzAU_uw
I remember about a two week period of heavy snow and brutal cold in Pittsburgh sometime in Jan or early Feb 1977. I have never seen anything like that since then, although Jan 1996 saw so much snow they closed the interstates in eastern PA and NJ for three days.
some disgraceful obfuscating by BBC in here, including an attempt to pre-empt any inquiry, by the old BBC trick of suggesting it may not be possible to prove anything either way:
21 Jan: BBC: Andrew Luck-Baker: Why did Antarctic expedition ship get stranded in ice?
BBC producer Andrew Luck-Baker was on board a Russian research vessel when it became trapped in pack ice over Christmas. Here, Andrew, who was covering an expedition for the BBC World Service’s Discovery programme, examines the events that led up to the ship being stranded…
The expedition leaders could have some tough questions to face about logistical shortcomings that may have put the vessel at increased risk of becoming trapped. These were operational errors and mishaps during a visit by scientists and tourists to a location close to the Antarctic shore on 23 December…
Chris Turney does not think the expedition’s visit to the islands was unduly long. Neither does he believe that the length of time spent there had any bearing on the Shokalskiy being in the wrong place at the wrong time when the ice surrounded and blocked her in…
It may not be provable either way. Whatever the truth, some of the paying passengers on the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013 spoke unfavourably about the manner in which the situation at the islands was handled. Everyone I spoke to asked to be quoted anonymously, mindful of the considerable media interest that may await in Tasmania.
“The teacher in me cringes at the logistics,” said one of the paying members of the expedition.
Another said the expedition was run like a “boys own adventure” and expressed concern over what she believed was a lack of thorough briefing on safety procedures throughout the Antarctic leg of the expedition…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25833307
Roy says:
January 22, 2014 at 1:59 am
Several people have been critical of the linking of the disastrous “Spanish Flu” outbreak in 1918, with the weather, arguing that there was no connection between the two. However, there may be a connection if the theory of the great British cosmologist, Fred Hoyle, and his Indian colleague Chandra Wickramasinghe, is correct. They claimed that the flu viruses originate in outer space and they mention the spread of the 1918-19 pandemic as evidence.
You forgot to include in your post an explanation of how in the near absolute zero of space a virus would evolve (or be created?) with exactly the membrane configuration RNA sequence for transmembrane infection of human cells, reverse transcriptase another enzymes to work with the human genome to achieve replication of both the viruses RNA and nuclear sheath, developed a strategy for evasion of the human immune system and had just the right characteristics for airborne transmission.
I don’t subscribe to any of the life-from-space theories, in Holye’s case such ideas came I think more from religion (pantheism) than science.
phlogiston says:
January 22, 2014 at 3:49 am
“You forgot to include in your post an explanation of how in the near absolute zero of space a virus would evolve (or be created?) with exactly the membrane configuration RNA sequence for transmembrane infection of human cells, reverse transcriptase another enzymes to work with the human genome to achieve replication of both the viruses RNA and nuclear sheath, developed a strategy for evasion of the human immune system and had just the right characteristics for airborne transmission.”
Evolutionists forget to explain how the same (spontaneous creation of enzymes needed for first life form) could have happened on Earth. They just shrug and say, given long enough time it just happens but never actually compute the probability; hint, it is ludicrously improbable and doesn’t work out for a planet that is only 4.5 bn years old.
If life on Earth and Hoyle’s panspermic flu have the same origin your question is answered.
Personally I don’t think the flu has a panspermic origin but I just wanted to point out a possible solution for the apparent paradox you mention.
Here in the south, we all learn very quickly that cold air from the north and warm moist air from the gulf, along with a strong jet stream, causes bad weather. The weather pattern we are in is similar to what we saw in the 70’s…..Extremely cold weather in the east and drought conditions in the west. Are we in store for a spring that resembles the ’74 outbreak of tornadoes? 2011 was terrible. Also, you know as well as I do that if this happens, all the AGW folks will be screaming “See…..We told you so”!
Strangely,
Spanish flu is H1N1 and we are seeing a variant of H1N1 this year.
Those of you in the USA who are freezing cold at the moment must realize that you “just happen to be in the wrong place – at the wrong time -. Just like The Famous Few Antarctic ‘Frozen In’ Scientist said when they arrived in NZ. (UK BBC news report this morning)
Oh, by the way no-one living in Europe know that it is freezing cold all over the USA at the moment. – Maybe that is because, right now, it is very – unseasonably – warm in most parts of the EU. No White 2013 Christmas for the southern half of Norway (60 deg. N). – That’s a first in my lifetime (start 1940).
Maybe the MSM don’t think it is worth rocking the boat/cradle while the going is good. After all; most of the “the little darlings/people” (or sheeple) to whom they have been telling ‘good night stories’ are still in a deep sleep.