Senior meteorologist on extended USA cold blast to last past Groundhog day: 'WOW F..ing WOW'

Top post for a day or two, new posts will appear below this one.

Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:

D’Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.

This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th.

16-day-conus-temp

It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.

cold-model-runs

The mainstream media blames it on global warming of course.http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-freezing-104500272–politics.html

UCAR downplayed the last brutal cold as being brief unlike the cold of the 1970s and 1980s.http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10928/cold-but-brief

Lets revisit their insightful analysis after the next few weeks.

1917/18 and 1993/94 were winters Joe Bastardi and I have been looking at. See the similarity of the SSTA in the Pacific in Jan/Feb 1918 to this year.

January 1918:

SSTA-Jan-1918

January 2014:

SSTA-Jan-2014

That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska drives the persistent Alaska and western ridge and downstream cold vortex.  That year had an extremely cold January.

1918-CONUS-temps

==========================================================

Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.

WeatherBell models expert Dr. Ryan Maue adds:

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/425700249076654080

Meanwhile, weather, not climate, is hitting the US government hard:

Federal Government Shuts Down for Snow Storm Offices in Washington, D.C., are closed for the second time this winter.

Snow falling in Washington area; 4 to 7 inches expected, as flights canceled across US

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eyesonu
January 21, 2014 8:42 pm

vukcevic says:
January 21, 2014 at 1:26 pm
==========
Keep doing what you do. You have had my attention for quite some time.
I don’t know the answers but you offer pretty good relationships in your graphs. If you post it I’ll be looking at it. But then that begs the question …. who am I? The answer to that [may] be just some lurker with eyes wide open.

pat
January 21, 2014 8:47 pm

new: timeline from Fairfax journos who were on the Aurora Australis:
22 Jan: SMH: Nicky Phillips/Colin Cosier: Stuck In The Ice
The inside story of how a polar expedition went terribly wrong, leaving dozens of tourists and scientists trapped in the ice.
The leaders were also receiving daily weather forecasts from three sources, the Bureau of Meteorology’s forecasters at Casey station, a private forecasting company in Europe and the ship’s onboard weather station. From this information Mortimer estimated the team had 15 to 18 hours before the weather deteriorated, and 24 hours before a more serious change was expected…
In the days following their rescue, Turney said the insurance claims were “yet to be discussed”.
“Who is paying? At the moment, we’re not sure,” he said….
This account has been reconstructed from interviews with members of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013/14, most of whom wished to remain anonymous, who witnessed events or overheard conversations, and the report the voyage leader, Greg Mortimer, submitted to IAATO.
Mortimer declined to comment on his report.
The Shokalskiy’s captain, Igor Kielev, did not respond to Fairfax Media’s emails.
Chris Turney and Chris Fogwill, the expedition leaders, also declined to comment on specific questions regarding events on December 23.
Nicky Phillips and Colin Cosier travelled on board the Aurora Australis as part of the Australian Antarctic Division’s media fellowship program.
http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2014/stuck-in-the-ice/

MattS
January 21, 2014 8:54 pm

Brrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

January 21, 2014 9:09 pm

Chad Wozniak says January 21, 2014 at 6:56 pm
And just moments ago CBS News ran the claim that 2013 was the fourth warmest year and the last four years were the four warmest in history. How is that for “responsible journalism”?

‘They’ have wonderful timing don’t they? Releasing this ‘headline’ at this time with a cold snap en route … maybe this is their weak attempt to cheer us up?
/mild sarc
.

Editor
January 21, 2014 9:47 pm

Gunga Din says:
January 21, 2014 at 8:10 pm

James Schrumpf says:
January 21, 2014 at 4:20 pm
I remember the extremely cold winter of 1977 very well indeed….
====================================================================
In the Midwest what is remembered is “The Blizzard of ’78″. (Part of the ’77 winter.) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/wx_events/Blizzard78/blizzard/blizzard78.html
A couple of weeks later the Northeast had it’s own “Blizzard of ’78″ from a different system.

I don’t think those storms were particularly cold, certainly not the northeast’s Blizzard, see my account at http://wermenh.com/blizz78.html Best drive ever in a snow storm for me!
In Ohio, I guess it got cold, see
http://www.wsaz.com/blogs/askjosh/Ohio_River_Frozen__Rare_Pictures_Included_115481714.html
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=ohio_river_freeze

snow
January 21, 2014 9:51 pm

Mabe the west will have a late rainy season in late febuary on into march that brings record breaking precip? It has happened before I suppose.

john robertson
January 21, 2014 9:57 pm

So Al Gore is in Washington for the next two weeks?
Perhaps AL can make even more money by being paid not to visit.

Mark Luhman
January 21, 2014 10:13 pm

I hope it [warms] up before February, I am going back up north at the end of the month. The last round of cold weather in western North Dakota my sons water frozen up on his manufactured home, when he crawled under it to check the heat tape he had a remote thermometer he could not find anything warmer than -27 F. I don’t want to return to that. I would [rather] remain in AZ after all it was 82 F today.

January 21, 2014 10:26 pm

Mike Maguire:
Thanks for the info and the link. I’m watching three things: the weather (45 day Accuweather extended forecast), in-ground storage forecast and NG price. If the forecast calls for primarily above average highs, I’ll take my profit (they currently show 36 of the next 45 days being below average for the Mid-West and East). If the projected end of the season underground storage is above 1 T cu ft when NG prices hit 4.50 (which it should if hit we go Feb and Mar with consistently below avg temps), I’ll bail. I’m not sure what I’ll do if projected end of the season storage is at or below 1 T cu ft, since that would put NG storage supplies in a crisis state, and prices would soar. I hope that doesn’t happen. Making money is nice but not if it stems from a situation that could cause great harm to many.
Hope that makes sense.
Fun to watch. More fun to make money by being a contrarian to the ‘settled science’ of CAGW.
Good luck with your trades.

January 21, 2014 11:01 pm

at 10:26 pm
I’m not sure what I’ll do if projected end of the season storage is at or below 1 T cu ft, since that would put NG storage supplies in a crisis state, and prices would soar. I hope that doesn’t happen.
I hope it does. What this country needs is a close call on a natural gas shortage that gets heeded. I don’t know if it will be enough, but nothing short of that will stop the EPA from shutting down countless gigawatts of coal fired powerplants. For once those plants are shut down, and the EPA will have them scrapped one way or another, the next cold winter will grow into a full blown early 70’s Natural Gas shortage with closed factories and schools.

Chris in Calgary
January 21, 2014 11:02 pm

This is exactly the January weather that David Archibald postulated for _next_ year, here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/05/further-to-a-1740-type-event/ and here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/18/two-years-to-a-1740-type-event/
David had his charts lining up for the cold weather in 2015. But it seems we have quite the massive cold spell in 2014. It will be fascinating (and scary) to see if the rest of this year matches the curve, whether this is just a precursor to an even more damaging 2015 freeze, or whether the pattern diverges from here.

JDN
January 21, 2014 11:16 pm

Seriously people! What is the “norm” he is using for this anomaly map?
The eastern US has had unusually mild winters for the last 30 years (usually). Even when if get a big snow, it rarely goes subzero anymore. I remember that in the midatatlantic states we would always get about a week or two at the end of January-beginning of February where the daytime highs might be in the teens and that, combined with some wind, made hot cocoa and slowly dripping faucets a regular thing. Joe can get as hyperbolic as he wants. The eastern US can take the cold.

Rational Db8
January 21, 2014 11:55 pm

re: arthur4563 says: January 21, 2014 at 1:14 pm

US soldiers returning from the Great War didn’t have a 4 year experience, and soldiers in the trenches were healthier than just about anyone else alive at that time. They were hardly physically “weakened” by the war. more likely just the opposite.

Arthur, I don’t have a clue where you got that information from, but conditions in the trenches were notoriously horrendous. Large numbers of men died from tuberculosis and other diseases. Influenza was also a huge problem that war conditions and travel definitely helped spread..
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918

In the fall of 1918 the Great War in Europe was winding down and peace was on the horizon. The Americans had joined in the fight, bringing the Allies closer to victory against the Germans. Deep within the trenches these men lived through some of the most brutal conditions of life, which it seemed could not be any worse. Then, in pockets across the globe, something erupted that seemed as benign as the common cold. The influenza of that season, however, was far more than a cold. In the two years that this scourge ravaged the earth, a fifth of the world’s population was infected. The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40. This pattern of morbidity was unusual for influenza which is usually a killer of the elderly and young children. It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy (Deseret News). An estimated 43,000 servicemen mobilized for WWI died of influenza (Crosby). 1918 would go down as unforgettable year of suffering and death and yet of peace. As noted in the Journal of the American Medical Association final edition of 1918:
“The 1918 has gone: a year momentous as the termination of the most cruel war in the annals of the human race; a year which marked, the end at least for a time, of man’s destruction of man; unfortunately a year in which developed a most fatal infectious disease causing the death of hundreds of thousands of human beings. Medical science for four and one-half years devoted itself to putting men on the firing line and keeping them there. Now it must turn with its whole might to combating the greatest enemy of all–infectious disease,” (12/28/1918)….
…The Great War, with its mass movements of men in armies and aboard ships, probably aided in its rapid diffusion and attack. The origins of the deadly flu disease were unknown but widely speculated upon. Some of the allies thought of the epidemic as a biological warfare tool of the Germans. Many thought it was a result of the trench warfare, the use of mustard gases and the generated “smoke and fumes” of the war….
…. The origins of this influenza variant is not precisely known. It is thought to have originated in China in a rare genetic shift of the influenza virus. The recombination of its surface proteins created a virus novel to almost everyone and a loss of herd immunity. Recently the virus has been reconstructed from the tissue of a dead soldier and is now being genetically characterized. The name of Spanish Flu came from the early affliction and large mortalities in Spain (BMJ,10/19/1918) where it allegedly killed 8 million in May (BMJ, 7/13/1918). However, a first wave of influenza appeared early in the spring of 1918 in Kansas and in military camps throughout the US. Few noticed the epidemic in the midst of the war. Wilson had just given his 14 point address. There was virtually no response or acknowledgment to the epidemics in March and April in the military camps. It was unfortunate that no steps were taken to prepare for the usual recrudescence of the virulent influenza strain in the winter. The lack of action was later criticized when the epidemic could not be ignored in the winter of 1918 (BMJ, 1918). These first epidemics at training camps were a sign of what was coming in greater magnitude in the fall and winter of 1918 to the entire world.
The war brought the virus back into the US for the second wave of the epidemic. It first arrived in Boston in September of 1918 through the port busy with war shipments of machinery and supplies. The war also enabled the virus to spread and diffuse. Men across the nation were mobilizing to join the military and the cause. As they came together, they brought the virus with them and to those they contacted. The virus killed almost 200,00 in October of 1918 alone. In November 11 of 1918 the end of the war enabled a resurgence. As people celebrated Armistice Day with parades and large partiess, a complete disaster from the public health standpoint, a rebirth of the epidemic occurred in some cities. The flu that winter was beyond imagination as millions were infected and thousands died. Just as the war had effected the course of influenza, influenza affected the war. Entire fleets were ill with the disease and men on the front were too sick to fight. The flu was devastating to both sides, killing more men than their own weapons could….

ren
January 22, 2014 12:24 am
January 22, 2014 12:55 am

I note the Yahoo story says we are “frying eggs on shovels” in Australia. It neglects to mention that temperatures in much of the northern part of Oz have been considerably lower than average during most of January. While Adelaide had maxes in the mid 40s (celsius), Alice Springs was basking in low thirties. Of course not as many people live in the north, so southern warmists overlook the effect of its temperatures on the national average.

January 22, 2014 12:59 am

Mike Maguire says:
January 21, 2014 at 3:07 pm
………….
Hi.
Thanks for your comments. I get regularly ‘castigated’ by Dr. S. To be fair he’s been very helpful in providing information, without his sometime direct help and the regular appearances on the WUWT, I wouldn’t have done even 10% of the so called ‘research’. I have a sneaky feeling that in a way he wants this controversial stuff to come out so he can deny and run it in into the ground while he is still around.
Back to sun and the climate. I think what is happening is that solar ‘thing’ has a double bite at the cherry, first directly and secondly some years later via rather complex feedback provided by our ‘terra amata’. S. America is ‘lucky’ to have ENSO, circumpolar 4 year wave oscillation, geomagnetic equator and finally S. A. magnetic anomaly. Only thing I could say is good lack with your forecasting.

Roy
January 22, 2014 1:59 am

Several people have been critical of the linking of the disastrous “Spanish Flu” outbreak in 1918, with the weather, arguing that there was no connection between the two. However, there may be a connection if the theory of the great British cosmologist, Fred Hoyle, and his Indian colleague Chandra Wickramasinghe, is correct. They claimed that the flu viruses originate in outer space and they mention the spread of the 1918-19 pandemic as evidence.
Influenza from Space?
http://www.panspermia.org/panfluenza.htm
The lethal wave of influenza in 1918-19… was first detected on the same day in Boston and Bombay. Yet in spreading within the United States it took three weeks to go from Boston to New York. — Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe (1)
One of Hoyle and Wickramasinghe’s more controversial claims is that influenza outbreaks are often caused by newly arriving viruses from space. Among several lines of evidence, they noticed that the worst flu epidemics coincide with peaks in the eleven-year cycle of sunspot activity. When an unusually vigorous flu epidemic again matched the pattern in January, 2000, they renewed the story in Current Science, a weekly journal of the Indian Academy of Sciences. …

Roy
January 22, 2014 2:48 am

Further to my previous message here is some more information from the writings of Hoyle and Wickramasinghe on the link between influenza and the winter weather. I have shortened it by omitting some paragraphs.
The Dilemma of Influenza by Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/talk.origins/vJ5IRzAU_uw

Another point of significance is that the spread of influenza takes no
account of modern modes of travel. The spread is still the same as it
was before the advent of modern air travel. The spread over the Earth
still takes months, which would be difficult to explain on the basis
of spread through contact with an incubation period of only a few
days. It is still the same as it was a century ago.
The lethal wave of influenza in 1918/19, said to have killed more than
the murderous assaults of the first World War, was first detected on
the same day in Boston and Bombay. Yet in spreading within the United
States it took three weeks to go from Boston to New York.
And of the influenza epidemic of 1948 an Italian doctor (Professor
Magrassi) reported of the then remote island Sardinia:
“We were able to verify the appearance of influenza in shepherds who
were living for a long time alone, in solitary open country far from
any inhabited centre. This occurred at just the same time as influenza
appeared in the nearest inhabited centres.”
In January 1919 Governor Riggs of Alaska reported to a committee of
the U.S. Senate that influenza had spread all over an area with the
size of Europe and with only a small thinly spread population of about
fifty thousand. This was despite conditions for human travel being
worse than anybody could remember, “The territory has to be reached by
dog team. You have the short days, the hard, cold weather, and you
only make 20 to 30 miles a day. The conditions are such as have never
happened before in the history of the territory…..”
Influenza is known to come to us in winter, with January and February
usually being the worst months. Why? Because in temperate latitudes it
is in the winter months that air from the Earth’s stratosphere comes
down to ground level, and it is because exceptionally cold air from
the stratosphere came down on Alaska in the winter of 1918/1989 that
conditions for travel there were the worst in living memory.
Air brought down from the stratosphere carrying either the virus
itself or a trigger for it reaches ground-level patchily. Occasionally
it can arrive at the same time at widely separated places like Boston
and Bombay, not requiring any humans to go from one place to the
other. The patches of virus appear to have a very fine scale like
smoke caught up in swirls of turbulent air. Even to the extent of
hitting one school house and missing another as we found in our 1978
study. An idea such as this may have been seen as wildly outrageous in
1978, but now it should be less so with the modern trend to accept
that life could be distributed on a vast cosmic scale.
Our expectation is that sooner or later a really bad situation,
possibly similar to that in 1918/19, will arise. This seems inevitable
so long as the Government’s advisors continue to prefer medical dogma
to taking a closer look at the facts. Which suggest to the point of
certainty that what we get from the high atmosphere, be it a virus or
a genetic trigger, is significantly more dangerous than anything we
may catch from other people.

David L
January 22, 2014 3:13 am

I remember about a two week period of heavy snow and brutal cold in Pittsburgh sometime in Jan or early Feb 1977. I have never seen anything like that since then, although Jan 1996 saw so much snow they closed the interstates in eastern PA and NJ for three days.

pat
January 22, 2014 3:17 am

some disgraceful obfuscating by BBC in here, including an attempt to pre-empt any inquiry, by the old BBC trick of suggesting it may not be possible to prove anything either way:
21 Jan: BBC: Andrew Luck-Baker: Why did Antarctic expedition ship get stranded in ice?
BBC producer Andrew Luck-Baker was on board a Russian research vessel when it became trapped in pack ice over Christmas. Here, Andrew, who was covering an expedition for the BBC World Service’s Discovery programme, examines the events that led up to the ship being stranded…
The expedition leaders could have some tough questions to face about logistical shortcomings that may have put the vessel at increased risk of becoming trapped. These were operational errors and mishaps during a visit by scientists and tourists to a location close to the Antarctic shore on 23 December…
Chris Turney does not think the expedition’s visit to the islands was unduly long. Neither does he believe that the length of time spent there had any bearing on the Shokalskiy being in the wrong place at the wrong time when the ice surrounded and blocked her in…
It may not be provable either way. Whatever the truth, some of the paying passengers on the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013 spoke unfavourably about the manner in which the situation at the islands was handled. Everyone I spoke to asked to be quoted anonymously, mindful of the considerable media interest that may await in Tasmania.
“The teacher in me cringes at the logistics,” said one of the paying members of the expedition.
Another said the expedition was run like a “boys own adventure” and expressed concern over what she believed was a lack of thorough briefing on safety procedures throughout the Antarctic leg of the expedition…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25833307

phlogiston
January 22, 2014 3:49 am

Roy says:
January 22, 2014 at 1:59 am
Several people have been critical of the linking of the disastrous “Spanish Flu” outbreak in 1918, with the weather, arguing that there was no connection between the two. However, there may be a connection if the theory of the great British cosmologist, Fred Hoyle, and his Indian colleague Chandra Wickramasinghe, is correct. They claimed that the flu viruses originate in outer space and they mention the spread of the 1918-19 pandemic as evidence.
You forgot to include in your post an explanation of how in the near absolute zero of space a virus would evolve (or be created?) with exactly the membrane configuration RNA sequence for transmembrane infection of human cells, reverse transcriptase another enzymes to work with the human genome to achieve replication of both the viruses RNA and nuclear sheath, developed a strategy for evasion of the human immune system and had just the right characteristics for airborne transmission.
I don’t subscribe to any of the life-from-space theories, in Holye’s case such ideas came I think more from religion (pantheism) than science.

DirkH
January 22, 2014 4:23 am

phlogiston says:
January 22, 2014 at 3:49 am
“You forgot to include in your post an explanation of how in the near absolute zero of space a virus would evolve (or be created?) with exactly the membrane configuration RNA sequence for transmembrane infection of human cells, reverse transcriptase another enzymes to work with the human genome to achieve replication of both the viruses RNA and nuclear sheath, developed a strategy for evasion of the human immune system and had just the right characteristics for airborne transmission.”
Evolutionists forget to explain how the same (spontaneous creation of enzymes needed for first life form) could have happened on Earth. They just shrug and say, given long enough time it just happens but never actually compute the probability; hint, it is ludicrously improbable and doesn’t work out for a planet that is only 4.5 bn years old.
If life on Earth and Hoyle’s panspermic flu have the same origin your question is answered.
Personally I don’t think the flu has a panspermic origin but I just wanted to point out a possible solution for the apparent paradox you mention.

Kenny
January 22, 2014 5:26 am

Here in the south, we all learn very quickly that cold air from the north and warm moist air from the gulf, along with a strong jet stream, causes bad weather. The weather pattern we are in is similar to what we saw in the 70’s…..Extremely cold weather in the east and drought conditions in the west. Are we in store for a spring that resembles the ’74 outbreak of tornadoes? 2011 was terrible. Also, you know as well as I do that if this happens, all the AGW folks will be screaming “See…..We told you so”!

Lou
January 22, 2014 5:50 am

Strangely,
Spanish flu is H1N1 and we are seeing a variant of H1N1 this year.

January 22, 2014 5:56 am

Those of you in the USA who are freezing cold at the moment must realize that you “just happen to be in the wrong place – at the wrong time -. Just like The Famous Few Antarctic ‘Frozen In’ Scientist said when they arrived in NZ. (UK BBC news report this morning)
Oh, by the way no-one living in Europe know that it is freezing cold all over the USA at the moment. – Maybe that is because, right now, it is very – unseasonably – warm in most parts of the EU. No White 2013 Christmas for the southern half of Norway (60 deg. N). – That’s a first in my lifetime (start 1940).
Maybe the MSM don’t think it is worth rocking the boat/cradle while the going is good. After all; most of the “the little darlings/people” (or sheeple) to whom they have been telling ‘good night stories’ are still in a deep sleep.