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Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:
D’Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.
This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th.
It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.
The mainstream media blames it on global warming of course.http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-freezing-104500272–politics.html
UCAR downplayed the last brutal cold as being brief unlike the cold of the 1970s and 1980s.http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10928/cold-but-brief
Lets revisit their insightful analysis after the next few weeks.
1917/18 and 1993/94 were winters Joe Bastardi and I have been looking at. See the similarity of the SSTA in the Pacific in Jan/Feb 1918 to this year.
January 1918:
January 2014:
That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska drives the persistent Alaska and western ridge and downstream cold vortex. That year had an extremely cold January.
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Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.
WeatherBell models expert Dr. Ryan Maue adds:
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/425700249076654080
Meanwhile, weather, not climate, is hitting the US government hard:
Federal Government Shuts Down for Snow Storm Offices in Washington, D.C., are closed for the second time this winter.
Snow falling in Washington area; 4 to 7 inches expected, as flights canceled across US
Thanks for the update from Joe D’Aleo. It seems that Joe Bastardi was right on his WeatherBell video last Saturday. I had to wait till Sunday afternoon to watch it as their server was apparently overloaded with viewers.
Robert Bissett says:
January 21, 2014 at 12:44 pm
and
Doug Huffman says:
January 21, 2014 at 1:18 pm
Thank you for the information on the 1918 flu pandemic and aspirin.
I remember the extremely cold winter of 1977 very well indeed. That was the winter during which I swore I’d never complain about the heat in summer again, and I have kept that vow.
Bring on the heat and humidity!
Mythical NFL meeting in 2004 where the owners of the Giants and Jets are proposing to the other teams to host the 2014 Super Bowl in their yet to be constructed new stadium. Owners of warm weather teams are arguing against the New York proposal since it would be the first cold weather outdoor Super Bowl in history and they believe the risk is too great for a frozen field and may be bitterly cold for the fans. The owners of the Jets and Giants assure the other owners that they have hired some of the best minds in Climate Science (known as the Team Consultants Inc) and have been assured 97% of all Climate Scientists believe in another 10 years snow and cold weather should be a thing of the past in New York. The New York Jets representative speaks ” Now we are not saying that Palm Trees will be lining the streets to the stadium but we have confidence in our Climate Team and they have 95% confidence that it will be balmy and remind everyone of October weather” The Dolphins owner pipes up ” I have just read that rising sea levels may be up to the Statue of Liberty’s navel in another 10 years, I am concerned that the stadium could be under water by then” The Giants CEO replies ” We have contingency plans for that and have hired top notch engineers from Holland to design dikes to protect the stadium.” With those assurances, the NFL owners vote unanimously to have the 2014 Super Bowl in New York City. Now you know the rest of the story.
For those whining about the outdoor, slightly northern location of the Super Bowl – this is one of the best decisions the NFL has made in a very long time.
The only things that would make it better would be game time temps of about 0 F (and falling), with falling snow. Old time football, coach!
Unlikely to get that weather combination in NJ, but a guy can dream.
@goldminor-That’s a good question. As far as I can tell, the thermal inertia of the Earth system is such that the effects of a change in solar activity could not likely occur immediately to any significant degree, buuuuuut, there should be some response near instantaneously-just significantly muted. The full effects would only be felt later, when the system has had more time to adjust.
In your particular case I think that more likely, that simply represents the natural internal variability of weather, especially on regional scales.
No comment from the groundhog?
The source(s) of these weather outlooks are some of the best and well known in the business and I appreciate you sharing their knowledgeable insights.
I will just share my own outlook, which often attempts to be ahead of those in the industry that are used by the big commodity traders that have the most impact on prices.
In particular, related to the cold is heating oil and natural gas. Heating oil has spiked higher the last week based on the most extreme cold effecting the Northeastern US these last 2 weeks of January.
Natural gas had most of its move higher in November until just before Christmas. Even the record breaking cold wave in January could not push it to new highs because supplies started so high at the beginning of the heating season. However, the return of the cold in weather forecasts since early last week, has allowed it to recover within striking distance of the December highs.
Question is, can we make new highs in natural gas?
Answer: if the cold continues extreme with only brief reprieves for more than 2 weeks, then yes. However, I see the AO and NAO going positive next week and the PNA working negative. This “usually” means warmer in the US, especially the Eastern US.
It suggests the target for the cold will shift farther west. Ordinarily it means the Eastern half of the US warming to above normal in Winter. However, we had a very unusual Nov/Dec, because in spite of a positive AO and NAO, extreme cold poured from a path farther west than its usual source and managed to get farther east than a typical +AO +NAO allows..
So I have moderate confidence of a pattern change later next week. Possibly back to one similar to November/December.
So far in January, a big upper ridge has dominated the west all the way up to Alaska with dry and record warmth and deep low/trough down stream in the east.
At the end of January a new stronger ridge will be building farther west in the Eastern Pacific with a positively tilted extension, northward to very western Alaska, continuing to Siberia……similar to the Nov/Dec ridge. Siberia will return to record warmth like it had in early Winter and the bitter cold air that usually brews there, will be flushed south through Western Canada(eastern AK may get very cold).
With an upper level low/trough developing in sw Canada to possibly the Pac Northwest, the big question is how far can the bitter cold travel south if a sw component to steering currents down stream from the trough across the continental US develops.
Earlier this year, the answer was as far as the extremely cold dense/heavy air in the lower levels wanted to go(southward) undercutting the upper levels and stopping just shy of Florida, which remained very warm in December.
Will this be the case again as we start February, also providing an environment favorable for ice storms(cold surface/warmer aloft)?
Or will the extreme cold have more resistance this time?
When the source region of the air mass is Siberia, the cold in the lowest levels is not handled as well by the models and can be hard to stop headed south.
This is the 500mb height pattern from the GFS ensembles at 360 hours showing the anomalies.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f360_nhbg.gif
Notice the big change from right now:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f000_nhbg.gif
Both patterns pull down extremely cold air from high latitudes and take it south through Canada (where, by their norms is not that unusual) and if not moderated much by the time it hits the US, is considered extreme.
The current pattern(shown 2nd) directly targets the Upper Midwest/Northeastern sector of the US with extreme cold.
The one shown first shifts the target much farther west, with the cold slowly running out of steam as it spreads southeast but potentially getting fairly far south. It would mean much less cold however, for the East Coast that is currently getting getting hammered with snow and frigid weather.
LKMiller says:
January 21, 2014 at 4:26 pm
For those whining about the outdoor, slightly northern location of the Super Bowl – this is one of the best decisions the NFL has made in a very long time.
The only things that would make it better would be game time temps of about 0 F (and falling), with falling snow. Old time football, coach!
I like the way you think, LKM!
For all of the ‘covered stadium’ nattering nancies:
Hey Shakespeare! Shut yer pie hole and let’s play football!
Mac
Well, the newsies (& a few government-paid “scientists”) have been harping on the Next Big Flu Pandemic® every year since I can remember, so it’s gotta happen soon, right?
Or was that monkey pox that was going to kill us all? I always forget.
Gregory says:
January 21, 2014 at 3:44 pm
ABC radio news keeps repeating Gavin Schmidt’s claim that 2013 was the 4th hottest evah. Always publishing the propaganda.
Here are the rankings so far where the December numbers are in:
UAHversion5.6: 4th
UAHversion5.5: 7th
RSS: 10th
Hadsst3: 6th
GISS: tied for 6th with 2003.
As of November, Hadcrut3 was 6th and Hadcrut4 was 8th.
I live in VA. It just went below freezing with an Alberta clipper system and we won’t get above freezing for several day. We likely won’t get out of the 30s for weeks. 2 weeks ago it was below 0. I am 41. This is the coldest winter I have experienced in this area since the early 80s, at least.
A sleepy Sun usually does that.
We could have been preparing to adapt to colder climate to save lives and preserve economic activity. Instead we threw hundreds of billions of dollars down a rat hole. Lots of pretty charts and graphs in this following article.
New Climate Data Rigging Scandal Rocks US Government
Written by John O’Sullivan
“A newly-uncovered and monumental calculating error in official US government climate data shows beyond doubt that climate scientists unjustifiably added on a whopping one degree of phantom warming to the official “raw” temperature record. Skeptics believe the discovery may trigger the biggest of all “climate con” scandals in Congress and sound the death knell on American climate policy.
Independent data analyst, Steven Goddard, today (January 19, 2014) released his telling study of the officially adjusted and “homogenized” US temperature records relied upon by NASA, NOAA, USHCN and scientists around the world to “prove” our climate has been warming dangerously.
Goddard reports, “I spent the evening comparing graphs…and hit the NOAA motherlode.” His diligent research exposed the real reason why there is a startling disparity between the “raw” thermometer readings, as reported by measuring stations, and the “adjusted” temperatures, those that appear in official charts and government reports. In effect, the adjustments to the “raw” thermometer measurements made by the climate scientists “turns a 90 year cooling trend into a warming trend,” says the astonished Goddard.”
http://www.principia-scientific.org/breaking-new-climate-data-rigging-scandal-rocks-us-government.html?utm_campaign=newsletter_January_19_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter
snow says:
January 21, 2014 at 1:53 pm
With this pattern is there any chance of moister for the west coast? No rainy season at all for the west coast so far. They could sure use the rain and mountain snow.
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I moved up to Humboldt Co in late spring of 1975. The winter of 1974/75 had been below average. This was then followed by an extremely dry winter, 1975/76. If I remember right there were some early rains in September, a bit of rain in October/November, and after that there was a negligible amount all the way till 6/6/1976, when a medium rain came through. It then continued to stay dry well into the next winter. The spring feeding my water tank went dry for the first time, ever. The area would normally average around 30″ a year. That really was an extreme change. So it is possible that parts of the Pacific NW might not see more than a dribble until next winter.
Coldest winter here on the Gulf Coast since 1977/78. Palms and citrus are dead, or soon will be.
Three more dangerously cold Arctic blasts within the next 10-days. Expecting a lot of damage to
plumbing, pipes etc. Rolling blackouts likely!!! Need more coal fired electricity NOT less.
Richard of NZ says: @ur momisugly January 21, 2014 at 12:13 pm
Umm, readers might remember that 1918 saw a global influenza pandemic….
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My Grandfather was one of the ones who died. Left Grandma with five young kids to raise alone. She put all of them through college too.
…..
Obama’s State of the Union Address is is January 28, 2014. Looks like the Polar Vortex Sharknado will be hitting. I guess Obama made the mistake of inviting Al Gore….
Wunderground is calling for “30 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 20s. Wind chill values as low as zero in the morning.” Lows 10°F to 15°F the night before.
Be nice if washington DC gets another big snow storm. I wonder how Obama is going to spin it into Global Warming causes blizzards this time.
The years 1975 through 1977 were the pivotal point of the climate shifting. The warming starts after that.
Brrrrrrrr!!!!!!
I’ve added another sweatshirt to the layers just thinking about it.
There is a logical fallacy here. If this cold snap is a result of the (cold) Artic air escaping southward, how is it melting sea ice, where it came from? Unless we are talking of some different substance, this air won’t melt any ice. On the contrary.
Robert W Turner says:
January 21, 2014 at 2:04 pm
Richard of NZ says:
January 21, 2014 at 12:13 pm
Umm, readers might remember that 1918 saw a global influenza pandemic. The spread was probably highlighted by the return home of millions of men from the Great War, many in cramped and somewhat insanitary conditions, already weakened by their experiences over the preceding 4 years.
If an example must be used to show the effects of a particular weather situation, please use a valid one.
The first case in the U.S. was reported January 1918 in Kansas while the troops were leaving for France, not coming back. The first U.S troops didn’t even go to battle until the spring of 1918. Give it a second and let that soak in.
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I’m American by birth, but live in icy Toronto by the accidental twists and turns of life. I’d just like to remind you, Mr. Turner, that there’s a wee, tiny little country, only slightly bigger than the USA, to the north of most of the US. Canadian troops joined in the First World War in 1914, and were returning maimed and injured after taking parts in some of the most brutal actions in France for four years before most Americans went overseas. The famously held the line during the first battle in which Fritz Haber oversaw the deployment of chlorine gas against French, Canadian and British troops at Ypres in 1915. This would likely have severe effects long-term effects on the respiratory systems of those exposed to it, as would subsequent gas warfare. This would surely make individuals more susceptible to the effects of flu? As far as I know, diseases don’t require passports and don’t honour borders.
After reading a lot of material over the last two years, I convinced myslf that, at least in the N.H., we were going to see some very frigid weather. So I did the obvious things October: locked in a low natural gas rate for my home, and bought some natural gas futures.
My only question is, when do I sell my futures (they expire in April) and take my (hefty) profits? They should go up in value as long as the weather is primarily colder than average, particularly in the East.
BTW, I owe more than a few of you a drink for the data that led to my investment!
from the wikipedia link, per JBJ:
Richard of NZ copped a lot of flak for saying pretty much the same thing.
The wiki article also mentions aspirin contributing to the death rate, and cites a study identifying a troop camp in France as the center of the outbreak.
I suspect that those railing against NZ Richard are just trying to glorify that stupid war.
As for the “cytocine suppressing drugs” mentioned by E.M Smith, you don’t need them.
Just go to your health food store and buy some N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC):
H5N1 influenza, or bird flu, is a lethal and potentially pandemic infection that produces the massive release of inflammatory mediators aptly called the “cytokine storm.” Other more common forms of influenza also act by triggering massive cytokine releases that inflame vulnerable lung tissue. In early 2010, it was discovered that NAC offers dual protection against bird flu. It inhibits both virus replication and expression of pro-inflammatory molecules in cells infected with H5N1 virus, holding out the promise of effective protection in the event of a global avian flu pandemic. [13]
13.Geiler J, Michaelis M, Naczk P, et al. N-acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC) inhibits virus replication and expression of pro-inflammatory molecules in A549 cells infected with highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A virus. Biochem Pharmacol. Feb 1;79(3):413-20.
http://www.lef.org/magazine/mag2010/may2010_N-Acetyl-Cysteine_02.htm
No patent, no prescription.
Resourceguy says:
January 21, 2014 at 1:45 pm
I have a special request for extra cold at the official (MA) residence of Edward Markey. What is the absolute freezing point anyway? (O Kelvin)
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Edward Markey is in Malden MA where it is 12.1 °F and snowing. They are expecting 4 to 8 inches and wind gusts to 35 mph.
That make you happy? :>)
I was having dinner at a local restaurant with some friends, and had the great misfortune of catching some coverage of the current winter storm on The Weather Channel. They are calling the winter storm
anus oops…sorry…Janus. I nearly lost my dinner…