Top post for a day or two, new posts will appear below this one.
Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:
D’Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.
This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th.
It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.
The mainstream media blames it on global warming of course.http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-freezing-104500272–politics.html
UCAR downplayed the last brutal cold as being brief unlike the cold of the 1970s and 1980s.http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10928/cold-but-brief
Lets revisit their insightful analysis after the next few weeks.
1917/18 and 1993/94 were winters Joe Bastardi and I have been looking at. See the similarity of the SSTA in the Pacific in Jan/Feb 1918 to this year.
January 1918:
January 2014:
That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska drives the persistent Alaska and western ridge and downstream cold vortex. That year had an extremely cold January.
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Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.
WeatherBell models expert Dr. Ryan Maue adds:
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/425700249076654080
Meanwhile, weather, not climate, is hitting the US government hard:
Federal Government Shuts Down for Snow Storm Offices in Washington, D.C., are closed for the second time this winter.
Snow falling in Washington area; 4 to 7 inches expected, as flights canceled across US
I keep hoping for a pattern change but it doesn’t happen. The water situation is going to be desperate in California very soon. We need rain/snow!
Sorry for the bad strike tag on my previous post… 🙁
Leon Brozyna says: @ur momisugly January 21, 2014 at 4:04 pm
our local (Buffalo) …this cold will go on into mid-February … makes this winter even more of a pain in the posterior than usual.
I’m more than ready for spring … is it here yet?
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At least I had the good sense to leave the area east of Buffalo NY/ Londonderry NH f and head to mid NC just below the snowline. I have shoveled my quota of snow for my lifetime.
Resourceguy:
0K = -273.15C = -459.67F
James Schrumpf says:
January 21, 2014 at 4:20 pm
I remember the extremely cold winter of 1977 very well indeed….
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So do I. That was the winter I loaded the trunk of my car with bags of sand. Good thing I did because a semi got stuck across the driveway at work and blocked the entire factory in. Two bags of sand got him out of the way. I also had cross country skis with me. No way was I getting stuck at work!
Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature
I would also add that vitamin D levels are lower during winter months for a large portion of the population, which contributes to overall immune system weakening. I’ve had 1 flu short the past 15 years, then learned that the best protection is a strong immune system.
Jtom says: @ur momisugly January 21, 2014 at 6:05 pm
….. bought some natural gas futures.
My only question is, when do I sell my futures (they expire in April) and take my (hefty) profits?…
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SEE!
The skeptics ARE funded by Big Oil! ERRrrr natural gas…. :>)
(Good for you!)
And just moments ago CBS News ran the claim that 2013 was the fourth warmest year and the last four years were the four warmest in history. How is that for “responsible journalism”? What a sick joke.
One really has to wonder what foul-smelling bodily orifice these people get their numbers from. It certainly isn’t located behind their eyes.
@jtom –
I must say – looks like you’re funding the energy companies, rather than the other way around. Interesting twist on alarmist claims that skeptics are funded by energy companies.
DR says: @ur momisugly January 21, 2014 at 6:37 pm
Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature….
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Sounds like one of those cheap fiber masks you use for painting is a good idea when the conditions are favorable. (I use them when tossing hay anyway.)
The general lay of the land in CA is a result of the overarching conditions of the past 3M years. Take any succession going on here and the imprint of both the Pleistocene as well as the current interglacial are there. During a glacial it can get very, very dry here.
Gail, are you sandbagging again ? 😎
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I really think we will see precipitation around what models have instructed us about and we subsequently prepared for as a govenment. Any government really…
Kinda like planning a vacation and bringing the wrong clothes. Eventually you figure out you made a mistake.
Our clothes are affordable energy to those most needing it in this instance.
If this weather happened in the EU block countries, with all those alternative sources, how would they fair comparativly speaking. The good olde USA is marching down that same path as I type. I would think it a valid question……….
Jtom says:
January 21, 2014 at 6:05 pm
“So I did the obvious things October: locked in a low natural gas rate for my home, and bought some natural gas futures.
My only question is, when do I sell my futures (they expire in April) and take my (hefty) profits? They should go up in value as long as the weather is primarily colder than average, particularly in the East.”
Congrats jtom!
You being long natural gas since October, means this would be considered a position trade and you’ve done extremely well. I never hold or advise on position trades, knowing how unreliable weather models are going out beyond 2 weeks.
However, just some thoughts. If your futures expire in April, then you must be long May natural gas, NGK4.
In Oct, natural gas got clobbered with NGK4 plunging from $4.0 to $3.5 at the start of Nov. This would be $5,000/contract for those that don’t follow. This was mainly from increased supply coming on line out east as well as a very warm weather outlook into early Nov at the time. Large funds sold something like 50,000 contracts, pummeling ng futures and feeding the move lower.
Unfortunately for me, I got long a bit too early before Halloween and got my clock cleaned for a few days………..but timing is everything for short term traders like me.
For you, I would pay watch the $4.25 area of enormous resistance. NGK4 has hit that area of major resistance numerous times in the last 18 months and each time it was rejected. If we keep the cold going well into Feb, I feel it can finally punch thru and go higher. If it turns milder in February and stays that way into March, you will see some of your profits erode. We are currently just below $4.2 and almost at that major resistance.
There are other things to consider besides weather and with natural gas, the farther into the residential heating season we get, the less it tends to react to weather forecasts since there is less time to erode/use up the amount in storage. The move up to start this week was impressive though.
I am a short term trader that uses changes in weather patterns that cause reversals in the price of markets that are greatly influenced by the weather to make a living. The current set up for me is to see a drastic change to much warmer temperatures in the key residential heating regions(especially the Midwest/East) to sell on……..BEFORE the market has reacted downward. I am not predicting this will happen, just stating what needs to happen for my set up to result in an action of selling/shorting.
Draw downs from this point on a year ago, in 2013 were fairly hefty because we ended Winter and started Spring very chilly in 2012. So storage levels vs a year ago could look pretty
bearish if it turns warm here. Last year, we continued with drawdowns until the first EIA report in April. Of course this caused ng to have a nice rally, starting in Feb last year. If we are warm in Feb/Mar of 2014 just the opposite could happen this year. Don’t stay long if we have a couple weeks of warm weather in the next month. Again, that’s not my prediction at the moment.
You probably already have this link. You can use it to get the historical storage reports, including last years, the 5 year average and more.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
You will need to figure it out for yourself on when to cover the position as I can’t tell you right now what temperatures will be like in Feb/March. Based on how the market is acting right now, it thinks alot more cold is coming. You could always just put a protective sell stop in to preserve a defined portion of your profits and continue to raise it as the price goes higher, and have it take you out if the market starts trading warmer weather. Just below $4 might be a good spot which would be below this weeks lows. If we get decisively above $4.25, then you could raise the sell stop to a bit below $4.25.
Good luck
RE, N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC).
….it cannot be considered as a universal treatment for influenza pneumonia. http://www.jnrbm.com/content/10/1/5
I would also add that vitamin D levels are lower during winter months for a large portion of the population, which contributes to overall immune system weakening. I’ve had 1 flu short the past 15 years, then learned that the best protection is a strong immune system.
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Yes, and simply wash your hands/cover your mouth. Cold does in fact add another risk for vulnerable people to deal with.
At the moment it is 5.9*F on my front porch.
I wish you guys were wrong sometimes. 😎 (Anybody know the “smiley face” for chattering teeth?)
[ 8<))))))))))) ? ]
I WONDER IF PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL IS A WARMIST?
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In the Midwest what is remembered is “The Blizzard of ’78”. (Part of the ’77 winter.) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/wx_events/Blizzard78/blizzard/blizzard78.html
A couple of weeks later the Northeast had it’s own “Blizzard of ’78” from a different system.
Oh. And in 1994 the all time recorded low for Columbus Ohio was set at -22*F.
Let me pose that in Maine we are blessed by being north of the dip in the jet stream. The cold high is here but the real misery is to the South of us as the storm moves off shore. God gave us snow makers to carefully place the white stuff on ski slopes. We will put another log on the fire, open the damper, put our feet up and enjoy our winter. Most Mainers over two expect that this is the period when the ponds get hard and it is relatively cold and snows in Maine. Every other vehicle has a plow on it and three hours after the snow stops, with the exception of the piles who would have thought there was a mess? Ice storms are our nemesis but even then If you have your wits about you, the weather is absolutely gorgeous a wonderland for winter activities and the surfing season is now. Slow down, be more considered in what you attempt and be prepared so the expected weather is awesome and not a threat. Six weeks from now we will be considering mud season.
Several weeks ago it was -15 F for a stretch. My friends who barely put up with my rants against the antiscience of the AGW crowd had a good laugh when I confided that I knew the idiots were wrong but I prayed they were right.
Just thinkin’
The cold is an unforgiving thing.
Think most would agree that it is better to sweat than shiver.
And now the video 😉
http://youtu.be/LaTGrV58wec
Unless already posted I think you are overlooking this as well looks pretty extreme here as well!!!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html BTW a much greater area than North America
22 Jan: Taxpayers.org NZ: Update on the AAE – DOC requests that logo be removed
http://taxpayers.org.nz/blogs/news/11753629-update-on-the-aae-doc-requests-that-logo-be-removed
Half tide Rock says:
January 21, 2014 at 8:14 pm
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It should always be remembered that how “bad” the weather is is relative to where someone lives and what they are used to.
Where I live a parking space might have a parking meter downtown. When I was in Calgary Canada a parking space had an electric outlet so people could plug in their oil pan heater whether the space had a parking meter or not.
On the Yahoo link, blaming global warming for the cold, it states “The Arctic is quickly losing sea ice” which is patently false. I must assume that they have bought the propaganda. The important thing in propaganda is not what you say, it’s what you don’t say. Don’t mention that all that sea ice that formerly was disappearing has all come back, and the news media will assume it is still gone. Their science reporting is dismal anyway, they seldom if ever bother to check any statements made by anyone, but just assume “appeal to authority” makes it true. Heck, I can find out with a few keystrokes.
War is peace.
Love is hate.
Cold is hot.