Top post for a day or two, new posts will appear below this one.
Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:
D’Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.
This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th.
It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.
The mainstream media blames it on global warming of course.http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-freezing-104500272–politics.html
UCAR downplayed the last brutal cold as being brief unlike the cold of the 1970s and 1980s.http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10928/cold-but-brief
Lets revisit their insightful analysis after the next few weeks.
1917/18 and 1993/94 were winters Joe Bastardi and I have been looking at. See the similarity of the SSTA in the Pacific in Jan/Feb 1918 to this year.
January 1918:
January 2014:
That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska drives the persistent Alaska and western ridge and downstream cold vortex. That year had an extremely cold January.
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Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.
WeatherBell models expert Dr. Ryan Maue adds:
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/425700249076654080
Meanwhile, weather, not climate, is hitting the US government hard:
Federal Government Shuts Down for Snow Storm Offices in Washington, D.C., are closed for the second time this winter.
Snow falling in Washington area; 4 to 7 inches expected, as flights canceled across US





What’s intriguing is that South America had a similar cold air deliver pattern exactly 6 months ago during their Winter. Tropical areas that grow coffee had the coldest temperatures since 1994 in July, with areas of Southern Brazil and Argentina seeing record cold and record snows in several outbreaks into August.
At the same time, our Arctic was haivng one of the coldest Summers, with big gains in ice vs the prior year.
The real intriguing part is that 6 months later, the weather patterns have flipped hemispheres. The Antarctic has had a big blob of cold anomolies moving around(just like the Arctic did in its previous Summer) but staying put for 2 months.
In North America, we are seeing extreme cold from the highest latitudes being delivered very far south(just like in South America during it’s previous Winter)
Strange coincidence? Maybe. This wasn’t just similar weather but the same most extreme in 20 years weather.that flipped hemispheres.
What exerts the same force that flips from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere,. gradually every 6 months? Of course there is almost no sun close to the poles in Winter and almost constant daylight in the Summer.
It could have nothing to do with the sun and this is just what both hemispheres look like in Winter and Summer when we are in a natural cooling mode.
In other words, in the Summer, it’s stays colder than nomal at very high latitudes and in the Winter, a pattern for delivery of extreme cold south dominates.
That extremely cold Winter of 1976/77 was exactly when the PDO was crossing from negative to positive………and stayed positive thru the 1990’s.
I live in Ottawa, Canada, and I quietly chuckle to myself. We are having a very normal winter. My house is warm, my driveway clear of snow. My car starts with no problem. There is lots of snow for the skiers, and ice on the canal for the skaters. Life goes on with nothing extraordinary happening at all. We are looking forward to Winterlude at the end of January, beginning of February. Ho hum.
Warming causes cold!
Warming causes warming too!
More funding or else!
Looking at the global jet stream charts for the next 7days, all l can say is thank goodness there is a Azores high in the Atlantic ocean. Otherwise there would be a real risk of cold arctic air flowing southwards across most of the NH spanning from eastern USA to central Russia.
jorgekafkazar says:
January 21, 2014 at 12:36
“My mother lived through that period. She (a nurse) recalled that people who insisted on staying active and going to work had the highest mortality.”
Stands to reason, if you go to work you are in contact with many people thus increasing your chance of contracting the Flu.
Great planning by the NFL to schedule the SuperBowl in New Jersey in 12 days. Maybe they’ll move it permanently to the South after this.
The 1918 pandemic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic
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My bet would be on Montreal where Al Gore closed his Ozone Hole.
vukcevic says: January 21, 2014 at 1:26 pm
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Vuk – I don’t know if you are right or wrong, but at least you now have more explanations on your wiggly lines, and we can sort of follow your reasoning.
Bob Koss says:
January 21, 2014 at 12:19 pm
During this time period on Feb 2nd I here there will be some kind of outdoor event played in New Jersey. Foosball maybe?
Yes, indeed. This year’s Super Bowl could a bigger fiasco then the “Spirit of Mawson” expedition, which at least was not watched live by tens of millions of people.
Not so sure, but this may be more like the cold around 1893 globally. If so, more of this is on the way for the next 25 years, every few years, then a 1918 reoccurance if the circa 60 year pattern holds. 1918 was near the bottom, starting the rise to the circa 1942 peak of that warming period though i do see the similarity for the US as Joe points out. (looking at HadCRUT4 minus applied adjustments)
“””””…..Richard of NZ says:
January 21, 2014 at 12:13 pm
Umm, readers might remember that 1918 saw a global influenza pandemic. The spread was probably highlighted by the return home of millions of men from the Great War, many in cramped and somewhat insanitary conditions, already weakened by their experiences over the preceding 4 years…….””””””
Well I for one, would definitely agree that WW-I definitely took place under the most insanitary conditions. Not only that; the conditions were also very unsanitary.
No I wasn’t there, but I heard about it.
Hoo Boy! Dum DeeDum Dum . . . (The dragnet is closing in.)
Chris Turney’s Uni has been churning them out during the AAE fiasco!
22 Jan: SMH: Peter Hannam: Drinking water: Extreme weather events threaten quality, says report
Researchers surveyed operations of 41 utilities in the two countries, including Sydney Water and Melbourne Water, and found that climate change may affect the quality of drinking water as much as its availability…
”You have more droughts, more rainfall, more heatwaves, more bushfires – the more of them together actually makes the intensity of the impact on water quality greater,” said Stuart Khan, an associate professor of the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of NSW, and lead author of the report…
Desalination plants required huge spending – more than $2 billion for Sydney and about $5.7 billion for Melbourne’s massive plant – but are likely to be necessary to give cities flexibility when water quality is threatened by extreme weather…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/drinking-water-extreme-weather-events-threaten-quality-says-report-20140121-316xh.html
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vukcevic says:
January 21, 2014 at 1:26 pm
At suggestion of a moderate ‘lukewarmer’ climate scientist, I have assembled enough data to show that the Northern Hemisphere climate is directly responding (with somewhat surprising double bite) to the solar activity. If its projection comes to reality then January 2024 will be more like January 1814 rather than the one of 1914.
vudcevic,
It’s hard to describe how awesome I think your graphs and charts loaded with all sorts of data are. This is currently feeding an intriguing observation that seems to be connected to your comment above.
As an operational meteorologist and also commodities trader, I specialize in pattern recognition and forecast for mainly North America and South American weather. I have noted strange patterns in global temperature anomalies over the past year that seem to fall outside anything I have seen in my 32 years of doing this..
It’s not just 20 year extremes in cold(which in itself appears odd, just because we were in a warming mode in the 1980’s/90’s) but the way the weather pattern in North America and South America flipped in 6 months to be the same as the other one was 6 months prior.
An impressive element to this is how both very high latitudes remained unusually and persistently cold during the Summer at both places. My area of expertise is recognizing atmospheric patterns and how they effect weather but I need some assistance(maybe we all do) in determining the underlying cause for this.
I am wide open for explanations that involve the sun, an interaction with our planets changing magnetic field and the oceans…..or something else that makes sense.
Dr. John Haldren’s explanation makes no sense to because both the Arctic and Antarctic had extremely cold Summers this past year. His explanation assumes that those regions getting warmer is what is causing this.
My observation/puzzlement is specific to only the past year of the extremely cold anomalies.
the UNSW Water Report!
Water Research Foundation: Water Quality Impacts Of Extreme Weather-Related Events-4324
http://www.waterrf.org/Pages/Projects.aspx?PID=4324
“It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.”
Global warming has really taken hold of the US again!
ABC radio news keeps repeating Gavin Schmidt’s claim that 2013 was the 4th hottest evah. Always publishing the propaganda.
Richard of NZ says:
January 21, 2014 at 12:13 pm
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Valid criticism but it would be interesting to read a summary of this horrible event from someone knowledgeable about the breakout. Did it in fact affect the returning soldiers the most? Did it start before the war ended? Were soldiers most affected?
Silver Ralph says:
January 21, 2014 at 2:47 pm
Vuk – I don’t know if you are right or wrong, but at least you now have more explanations on your wiggly lines, and we can sort of follow your reasoning.
Thanks. Only thing I am very concerned about is that the data I use is the best I can access, but I do admit the labelling often could be better. Just for fun of it, I did occasionally try to offer interpretation suggestion a physical mechanism, but got shot down far too often (actually every single time).
p.s. Google says::Ralph Silver – the man with the perpetual smile.
So, who needs that Pennsylvania rat when we’ve got the dynamic duo of Bastardi and D’Aleo.
And according to our local (Buffalo) on-air prognosticators who’ve tied in with WeatherNation, this cold will go on into mid-February … makes this winter even more of a pain in the posterior than usual.
I’m more than ready for spring … is it here yet?
URGENT news update the ship of fools have arrived at Hobart 22/01/2014 god bless them all
Funny we had El Nino ruler of the world before the CAGW craze took over and in perfect fashion, when reality and theory diverge, the El Nino ruler of the world comes back… Meanwhile none of those experts know why this cold wave is occurring now and rather then last week…
jorgekafkazar says: “My mother lived through that period. She (a nurse) recalled that people who insisted on staying active and going to work had the highest mortality.”
old44 says: “Stands to reason, if you go to work you are in contact with many people thus increasing your chance of contracting the Flu.”
They were already sick when they went to work, old.