UPDATE: Even Trenberth is critical of the Cai et al. (2013) study. See the update at the end.
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My apologies to the writers of Mel Brooks’ Blazing Saddles for the title of the post.
Hedley Lamarr: My mind is aglow with whirling, transient nodes of thought careening through a cosmic vapor of invention.
Taggart: Ditto.
Hedley Lamarr: “Ditto?” “Ditto,” you provincial putz?
Blogger “Andrew” advises that the twitter-sphere is filled with discussions of a new paper claiming that the strengths of the late 20th Century El Niño events were caused by global warming. This argument has been around for years and keeps getting resurrected. Blogger “nevket240” provided a link to the Sydney Morning Herald article by Tom Arup Major El Nino events likely to double in next century, which appears to have initiated the discussions.
The new paper is Cai et al (2013) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. The abstract reads:
El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems, agriculture, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.
A REANALYSIS CONTRADICTS THE MODELS
These are similar to the claims in Power et al. (2013) Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability. We discussed that paper in the post Will Global Warming Increase the Intensity of El Niño? To save myself some time, I’ll copy parts of that post:
However, Ray & Giese (2012) Historical changes in El Niño and La Niña characteristics in an ocean reanalysis found that El Niño events had not become stronger, or lasted longer, or occurred more often (among other things) since 1871. And manmade greenhouse gases are said to have caused global warming during that time period. The Ray & Giese (2012) abstract ends:
Overall, there is no evidence that there are changes in the strength, frequency, duration, location or direction of propagation of El Niño and La Niña anomalies caused by global warming during the period from 1871 to 2008.
So one wonders how climate models could simulate a future change in ENSO when there have been no changes in almost 140 years.
MODELS CAN’T SIMULATE BASIC ENSO PROCESSES
Additionally, we know climate models can’t simulate ENSO. Here’s another portion of that earlier blog post:
Guilyardi et al. (2009), which is a paper I have referred to numerous times in blog posts (example here). Did Power et al. (2013) overlook one of the critical findings of Guilyardi et al. (2009)?:
Because ENSO is the dominant mode of climate variability at interannual time scales, the lack of consistency in the model predictions of the response of ENSO to global warming currently limits our confidence in using these predictions to address adaptive societal concerns, such as regional impacts or extremes.
In other words, because climate models cannot accurately simulate El Niño and La Niña processes, the authors of Guilyardi et al. (2009) have little confidence in climate model projections of regional climate or of extreme events.
Bellenger, et al. (2013) “ENSO Representation in Climate Models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5,” is a more recent confirmation of how poorly climate models simulate El Niños and La Niñas. (Preprint copy is here.) The section titled “Discussion and Perspectives” begins:
Much development work for modeling group is still needed in order to correctly represent ENSO, its basic characteristics (amplitude, evolution, timescale, seasonal phaselock…) and fundamental processes such as the Bjerknes and surface fluxes feedbacks.
“Amplitude” refers to the strengths of ENSO events.
“Evolution” refers to the formation of El Niños and La Niñas and the processes that take place as the events are forming.
“Timescale” can refer to both the how long ENSO events last and how often they occur.
“Phaselock” refers to the fact that El Niño and La Niña events are tied to the seasonal cycle. They peak in the boreal winter.
“Bjerknes feedback,” very basically, means how the tropical Pacific and the atmosphere above it are coupled; i.e., they are interdependent, a change in one causes a change in the other and they provide positive feedback to one another. The existence of this positive “Bjerknes feedback” suggests that El Niño and La Niña events will remain in one mode until something interrupts the positive feedback.
In short, according to Bellenger, et al. (2013), the current generation of climate models (CMIP5: used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report and by Power et al (2013)) still cannot simulate basic coupled ocean-atmosphere processes associated with El Niño and La Niña events–basic processes.
DATA CONTRADICT THE FLAWED MODELS
And, of course, to further contradict the models, ocean heat content data and satellite-era sea surface temperature data indicate ocean warming was caused by strong naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled El Niño events, not vice versa as claimed by the modelers…who still can’t simulate basic ENSO processes.
If the subject of the natural warming of the global oceans is new to you, refer to my illustrated essay “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge”(42MB). The way data portrays how the oceans warmed may come as a surprise to you, especially with all we’ve been told about human-induced global warming. If you like audio-video presentations, see my two-part YouTube video series “The Natural Warming of the Global Oceans”. Part 1 is here and Part 2 is here. Also see An Illustrated Introduction to the Basic Processes that Drive El Niño and La Niña Events.
And a whole lot more information about El Niño and La Niña can be found in my ebook Who Turned on the Heat? which has been lowered in price to U.S.$5.00. A free preview in pdf format is here. The preview includes the Table of Contents, the Introduction, the first half of section 1 (which was provided complete in this post), a discussion of the cover, and the Closing. Take a run through the Table of Contents. It is a very-detailed and well-illustrated book—using data from the real world, not models of a virtual world.
Who Turned on the Heat? is only available in pdf format…and will only be available in that format. Click here to purchase a copy. Thanks. Unless I can find funding for my research, it will be book sales and tips/donations that allow me to return to blogging full-time.
NOTE: With my new job, I may be a little slow responding to questions. Sorry.
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UPDATE:
Brian Kahn also covered Cai et al. (2013) in his ClimateCentral post Climate Change Could Double Likelihood of Super El Ninos. (Thanks again Andrew for the link to the post at HockeySchtick.) Brian Kahn’s article included the following and a remarkable quote from Kevin Trenberth:
The core of Cai’s results, that more super El Ninos are likely, was disputed by Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Corporation [sic] for Atmospheric Research.
He said some of the models used in the study overestimate the past number of El Nino events by a wide margin and do a poor job of representing them and their impacts.
“This seriously undermines the confidence that the models do an adequate job in ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) simulations and so why should we trust their future projections?” he said in an email.
Trenberth also said that some long-range climate models also fail to adequately simulate other natural climate patterns that influence El Nino let alone how they might also shift in a warming world.
I’m beginning to enjoy Kevin Trenberth again. (sarc on) I’m sure he’ll be pleased. (sarc off)
OOPS, forgot to thank Andrew and nevket240. Thank you!
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Mel Brooks says it all here:
This was wishful thinking, confirmation bias par excellence, and I mean it, a brilliant demonstration. Kiddoes, first you have to understand Bob Tisdale’s work.
====================
Trenberth, ca 1998:
NCAR press release titled: El Nino Impacts: Weaker in the Past, Stronger in the Future?, Jan 1998.
Trenberth, ca 2014:
From his forthcoming autobiography, titled: My life on Both Sides of the Coin (How I made a lucrative career on the public dole from self delusion, bluff, and bluster).
Ahhhh, the circle of life.
Why, indeed. For the same reason, Kev, why should we trust yours?
I notice one of the co-authors had published the global warming was slowing do the trade winds and that paper went viral as well. But as the Pacific switched to more frequent La Ninas the trade winds sped up. Seems like this group is intent on showing global warming will affect natural cycles no matter how much contradictory data. LIkely they learned from Hansen’s failed prediction of a Super El Nino in 2006 so the safest haven for unsupported speculation is to have a the model predict way into the future, so rigorous scientific testing and validation become impossible.
Trenberth must criticize the paper because he is hanging his hat on the current increase in La Nina-like conditions are hiding the heat. It all goes to show any researcher can make models to validate their personal bias. Despite the controversy, this paper will be added to the list papers “proving” a global warming consensus.
Why did I want to stop reading at the bit above? How are the IPCC’s model ensembles doing so far regarding surface temperatures? They failed in the near future so what hope should we have?
JJ @ur momisugly 6-58am.
no need to show me how a cold wind can cool a pool but do please a warm wind that can warm a cool ocean…..
And it appears we are currently going into another La Nina?
“Can we have some more beans Mr. Taggart?” I think they would compliment the climate simulations.
Ladies and Gentlemen including Moderator
Here I am in my element. It is about modeling, and I live in the area.
I see the that “Bjerknes feedback” is mentioned. That seems to be according to Jacob Bjerknes.
http:/Carl Anton Bjerknes invented this. Together with his son Vilhelm Bjerknes they went to Paris and won Gold medal for the fameous Bjerknes Water Bath, where they both had been splashing in water for a while.
That money was invested in a study for young Vilhelm in Paris, and Vilhelm went to Heinrich Herz to help Herz with his antennae. From that situation I have red a book, “Über die elektrische Resonans” by V.Bjerknes, really worth reading. And that is all I have red from Bjerknes. From that book we have the quite extreemly important “Bjerknes` theorem” or statement:
“Waves are reflected on dimensional boarders between media of different wave mechanical conductivity. Theese dimensional boarders, point, line, surface,…. according to the nature of the wave…. make the END-CONDITIONS of the reflected wave!”
Read that again and again and again and again and again….
Until you grasp it and know that sentece by heart!
I repeat……!
It is about the eccho and the radar and the sonar and the monochord and violin & guitar strings, and, sea- waves onto a steep rocky wall. Reflection an “back radiation” and wave- interference and superposed waves.
Then you are further due to conscider the sea serpent or dragon or Midgardsormen also. The sea serpent is the Gulf stream of course, and to be well conscidered. But Midgardsormen is rather the jet- stream or the “polar vortex” as you falsely call it. The large serpent that goes all around the world and bites itself in the tail , making large meanders all around the world
That bite is by weak forces, thus it may also slip. and then the Serpent is making rumble and chaos until it manages to bite again.
That rumble and chaos is called “Wolf im Ton” and can be found in Violins, long flute instruments, Radio transmitters, and in the chladni plate. The unstable “sound figure” that cannot decide which “Modul” for swinging and cykling.
That occurs when the coherent laminar and phase- couppled, complex, material wave gets into strain and conflict with its end- conditions.
Then you also may have “Tone break”. It breaks and jumps into another Modul, or it breaks into more or less total CHAOS, the tone simply vanishes, it “ceases to exist..”
The coherent and laminar material figure and form dissolves into thermal CHAOS..
See also Breakers at sea, and over underwater rocks, and onto the shores, for instance in California.
CHOSMOS & CHAOS, you see. = 2 greek consceps, also to be red again and again and again until taken serious.
In order to worship theese things right and the proper Historically correct way, you must seek up
http:/Urnes stave church.com
There you see the fameous Urnes- dragons, that are to be studied until you never forget them again, becaquse they are on the UNESCO world heritage list.
Without proper Mental ideas and contemplation on the Urnes- dragons, you are simply not enlighted or inaugurated and qualified to grasp what`s really going on at sea and elsewhere, where it sounds and splashes and rumbles and where there even may be Wolf im Ton, but also steady trade winds and just fine weather.
Jacob Bjerknes went to California having learnt all theese things from his father and grandfather, thus he could clear up both Nino and Nina and the very ENSO for you.
Further just to shock you, the end conditions of waves according to definition, may be more than just 1,2 and 3- dimensional. They may even be 6- dimensional, which is the square of space or space times space, believe it or not.
That is the square of molar volume according to J.van der Waals, Nobel price of physics in 1910, or the dimesional boarder between media of different wave mechanical conductivity, namely between thermo- molecular moovement and infrared electromagnetic radiation.
I think we rag on Trenberth a little too much. He does some solid research, his belief in incoming/outgoing differential heat isn’t unreasonable, nor his suggestion it’s been going into the deep ocean implausible. He tows the line sometimes and implies AGW catastrophism, but this is likely just to keep himself working with access to good researchers and resources. He might even be a closet skeptic.
I detect a pulse.
==========
kim. another bot is on the thread
Surely you jest. Kevin “invert the null hypothesis” Trenberth deserves far more derision than he gets.
Suggestion? Implies? Get real. He doesn’t toe the line. He invented it.
Kevin Trenberth, founding member of the “Climate Rapid Response Team”, a closet skeptic? That’s a pretty deep closet. Maybe the missing heat is in there with him.
“climate modelling evidence” – anyone who uses this phrase should be stripped of their Ph.D.
kim,
Steven Mosher has given you the ultimate set-up line! ☺
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wonko,
Exactly right. Models are not evidence!
There is essentially no trend in the SOI since 1876 and a *negative* trend in the variance (ie absolute deviations from the long term mean). This means that there has been no trend towards a more El Nino like state, nor has there been an increase in the magnitude of ENSO events-the reverse is true, in fact.
Based on precipitation increase where? Precipitation increase occurs in El Niño analogue years in certain areas to varying probabilities. The precip pattern shifts to other areas under La Niña years. But what about El Nado and La Nada conditions? Or when ENSO is in truly neutral territory? Basing El Niño occurrence on precip projections in an atmospheric model that is loaded up with a water vapor fudge factor is complete wild-ass guess nonsense. These authors are on flights of fancy with very little thought towards even the basic tenants of meteorology.
Just a heads up on modelling. We tend to assume the models are designed to accurately reflect the scientific reality. Often now that’s not the purpose at all. The models exist solely to influence policy makers to propose regulatory changes that will drive social and economic change. Most contributors see the word science and assume hard science. Often times these days, especially anywhere in the vicinity of UN entities science means the social sciences like sociology and psychology and even anthropology.
For examle, the UN has created an entity-PRME-Principles for Responsible Management Education to reform business schools globally. The purpose is to change the nature of business and the economic system. Its foundation? “Rigorous theories and models for a sustainable world, the creation and management of platforms for meaningful public debate, as well as sustainability incubators which provide a suitable environment and practical support for sustainable business creations.”
So be careful, those “theories and models” only exist to try to force change without the rent-seekers being honest about what they are really up to.
“Our Climate Models Are Aglow with Whirling, Transient Nodes of Thought Careening through a Cosmic Vapor of Invention…”
I LOVE that movie! Harvey Korman (and others) at their absolute best.
Trenberth condensed: “Where’s the heat? It’s a travesty!” Gosh, warm fuzzies — maybe he could be our poster boy.
Carbomontanus <-I bet this guy lives in Colorado.
Arrrrrggggghuuuughhhhh! Once again, I’m STARVING trying to eek out my living as an Engineer, with 3 degrees…(age prejudice is part of this problem) and these MENTAL midgets are drawing huge salaries to product CLAP TRAP as this? DO THEY HAVE NO BASIC HEAT TRANSFER UNDERTANDING? Do they NOT realize that the overall thin film heat transfer coeficient is about 1.5 to 2 BTU per square foot, per degree F. on the ocean? That the OVERALL atmospheric temperatures are such that the RATE OF TRANSFER to the Oceans CANNOT be responsible for the temperature shifts of an El-nija, or El-nino events? Do these guys WALK BACKWARDS everywhere. It’s so discouraging. But then 90% of the population (in the USA, of course) doesn’t have the intellectual horse power to use a pencil to cut their way out of a paper bag, much less “logic” which has thinner basis than the thinness paper bag on the market. If it wasn’t for the fact that IT WILL HURT ME TOO..I’d say, “Let them completely have their way, and throw us back to a 19th century life style…!!”
If you use HADSST3 there is no trend with ENSO and you can see 2 warmer periods with one cooler period sandwiched in between.
BUT, if you use ERSSTv3b there is almost a perfect match for global temperatures with Nino3.4 on smooth 121-month filter.
This is due to ERSSTv3b Nino3.4 warm during the 20th century and there is no zero trend like with HADSST3.
Both data sets show the most strongest El Nino like Nino3.4 SST peaks and least La NIna Nino3.4 SST troughs over recent decades since the duration of these graphs.
Neither support a possible affect from any AGW because ENSO is completely down to moving solar energy around the ocean surface and the energy involved from the sun is orders larger than any AGW retention could contribute. With HADSST3 shows no warming trend overall so impossible to claim any AGW influence. With ERSSTv3b warming there have only been 2 strong El Ninos since the early 1980s with both almost identical. Therefore since AGW was suppose to have a significant affect El Ninos have not become any stronger and still wait the next strong one since 1997/98 over 15 years ago. The frequency of strong El Ninos hasn’t increased since the early 1980s. This is despite the significant increase in CO2 during this period with no global warming since the last strong El Nino.
Error, the link above actually shows Nino4 not nino3.4 ERSSTv3b.
The correct link is shown here.
as i pointed out on the “Rabbit Ears” thread, this “story” was provided to the MSM by Chris Turney’s AAE “volunteer” spokesman, Alvin Stone at University of New South Wales:
19 Jan: Eureka Alert Media Release: Contact: Alvin Stone
alvin.stone@unsw.edu.au – University of New South Wales
Get used to heat waves: Extreme El Nino events to double
An international team of scientists from organisations including the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CSIRO, published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.
“We currently experience an unusually strong El Niño event every 20 years. Our research shows this will double to one event every 10 years,” said co-author, Dr Agus Santoso of CoECSS. ..
“The question of how global warming will change the frequency of extreme El Niño events has challenged scientists for more than 20 years,” said co-author Dr Mike McPhaden of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“This research is the first comprehensive examination of the issue to produce robust and convincing results,” said Dr McPhaden…
“During an extreme El Niño event countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wild fires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru,” said lead author, CSIRO’s Dr Wenju Cai…
“For Australia, this could mean summer heat waves, like that recently experienced in the south-east of the country, could get an additional boost if they coincide with extreme El Ninos,” said co-author, Professor Matthew England from CoECSS. …
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-01/uons-gut011714.php