As we begin 2014, it will usher in record cold temperatures. Next week looks quite cold as this forecast for Tuesday shows.
Image from Dr. Ryan Maue, WeatherBell
International Falls, MN set a new record with -42ºF.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
504 AM CST THU JAN 02 2014
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...THE TEMPERATURE WAS -42 DEGREES AT 5 AM IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN.
THIS TEMPERATURE BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW FOR THIS DATE OF -37
DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY FALL
FURTHER THIS MORNING.
The International Falls, MN Airport had a record of 8 days with a temperature of less than -30 F in December. This breaks the old record of 7 days. The coldest temperature was -37 on the morning of the 30th. The high temperature for the month was 34 degrees on the 27th.
Many other cities are feeling the cold blast:
![01_01_2014_MinT_WindChill_Image[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/01_01_2014_mint_windchill_image1.jpg?quality=83)
Compilation from NWS, Duluth.
More on the way for much of the nation, this map shows the probability of temperatures below -20ºC (-4ºF):
Record lows occur when you have snow cover and very low dew points. However, CO2 has DOUBLED. What this means is that record lows should not occur. Since they are occurring with frequency, it shows that the CAGW theory is in serious trouble.
_Jim says:
January 2, 2014 at 2:32 pm
TB says January 2, 2014 at 2:11 pm
…
The Jet-stream drives movement of air masses – the jet being an artifact of the juxtaposition of air-masses …
An apparent contradictory statement.
How do ‘jets’ drive these air masses, when they are parallel to them?
Can you point out where the jet was last night?
We had a pronounced cold front move in about 7 PM last night, and the wind picked up about midnight .. where was the ‘jet’ about that time?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Jim:
You have to understand the mechanics at work. Indeed no one “cause” can adequately be ascribed to any weather event on such a magnitude as meridional shifts of air-mass, all is ultimately linked
However. Think of the jet stream and the point in the troposphere where differing air masses meet.
The more “squeezed” together they are, the stronger the jet.
Now, the dynamics of a jet are subject to the Earth’s rotation, a jet moving south will loose it’s “spin effect”, slow and start to move Poleward again. Similarly a jet moving ~N will gain a spin effect and turn right until moving ~S again. This induces a wave train (Rossby) that can be self -reinforcing with feed-back to/from the formation of surface Lows/Highs. Visualise the Jet as a rope tied at one end to a pole and you holding the other. Give the rope a sharp pull up/down. A wave will travel along the rope to the pole. If this is done at the right “resonant” frequency then a standing wave can be induced.
Now remember that “above” the rope lies cold air, and “below” warm. So the warm/cold air-masses are dragged N/S along with the rope/jet.
In my OP I forgot to mention geography re jet positioning. Air doesn’t like flowing over mountains, and the Rockies are the most sig range lying N/S in the NH. When it does go over, it wants to form HP on the windward and LP on the lee sides. Ie it wants really to get around them by curving to the north first the bending round to come more southward. N America therefore often suffers via a major cold trough and in some winters the bulk of the Polar vortex sitting over N Canada. (the PV BTW contains the coldest air in the NH in depth – from surface to top). It’s trapped because cold air means LP so all winds flow in – so it cant really loose it’s identity, you just get waves (ripples) in the jet around it, these forming Lows themselves. They really wind-up when meeting warm/wet air coming up from the Gulf and dump snow/freezing rain up the E/NE side. This fixed lobe of the PV means the jet turns NE’ward across the Atlantic and has brought mild ( but lately stormy ) weather to the UK. This mildness extending right to the Urals. Another consequence up stream of you is the jet moving N across E Siberia and Alaska to take unusual warmth there.
This is as close as I can get to you timing…
http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map_upper.php?lang=en&map=300&area=na
BTW: a CF will usually lie behind a CF as it lies in the warm air lofted over the cold as it drives forward.
Play this animation….
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx?animate=true
Another view of NH cold spreading.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/latest_cmoll.gif
dbstealey says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:06 pm
Martin says:
“Here’s the more up to date chart that shows the human fingerprint.”
“Anyone can assert that there is a “human fingerprint” in natural global warming. But assertions are meaningless when they are baseless, such as Martin’s assertion. Simply looking at a chart and saying, “AHA! I see a human fingerprint!” means nothing. You must provide testable, empirical scientific evidence showing a direct connection between a rise in temperature, and human activity. So far, no one has been able to make that connection, per the Scientific Method.”
Anthony Watts said that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and I believe him. Humans have increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere which has caused AGW. There’s your “human fingerprint”.
Thank you, Ryan Maue (and An-tho-ny) for generously providing us with such first-class information. Good ol’ Pacific Ocean — keeps us (in NW Environaz1land) cool in the summer and “warm” in the winter. I’ll never curse it for being too cold to swim in again.
Suggestion: If your color scheme was not chosen due to its being the generally accepted meteorological practice (meh, even if it IS!), changing it to a more intuitive one would help immensely to more effectively communicate. Perhaps my brain is anomalous, but, using black –> VIB –>G –> YOR* graduated from 0 to “hot;” and black –> shades of blue-gray for 0 to “super-cold” would make the graphic MUCH more easy to read. There are enough shades of each color in computer graphics, now, to cover all the temperatures.
*from rainbow colors: red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, violet
Well, just a non-meteorologist’s two cents’ worth.
Thanks again, Mr. Maue,
Janice
Nick Stokes says: January 2, 2014 at 12:57 pm
>> John Eggert says: January 2, 2014 at 7:50 am
>> “global warming. Where . . . is it?”
Birdsville 48.6°C. Moomba 49.3°C (120.7°F).
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
quote:
HOTTEST OF HOT WAVES ON RECORD.; How It Struck Sweltering New South Wales in January Last.
http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=F30D10FB3E5D13728DDDA10994D0405B8685F0D3
e.g., Gonndabooka, January 19, 1896: — 53.89C
That’s “global warming” according to Stokes.
What Australia does have at present is a record number of trolls spouting hot propaganda.
dbstealey says: @ur momisugly January 2, 2014 at 3:06 pm
….Anyone can assert that there is a “human fingerprint” in natural global warming. But assertions are meaningless when they are baseless, such as Martin’s assertion. Simply looking at a chart and saying, “AHA! I see a human fingerprint!” means nothing….
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But Smokey there IS a “human fingerprint” in the temperature record! You can see it here and here.
…
Jo Nova has several threads on the Australian temperature records listed HERE.
Caleb says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:31 pm
…. however I think the repercussions of a loopy jet stream, (I think Dr. Tim Ball uses the more respectable word “meridianal,”) (however spell-check prefers “loopy,”) may be to somehow click a switch and kick the AMO from warm to cold….
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Actually it is probably the other way round because the oceans are the big heat sink.
Martin,
Wrong again. There is no “human fingerprint” measurable in current global warming. None.
I have posted the following here many times:
‘In my opinion, AGW may be the cause of some very minuscule warming. I could be wrong.’
Any “human fingerprint” is too tiny to measure at current CO2 concentrations. There are no empirical measurements anywhere that can show a portion of global warming attributable to human activity. Such real world measurements simply do not exist. The graph you posted does not show anything but natural variability.
The reason is clear: at current CO2 concentrations, the warming effect is so tiny that it is not even measurable. Almost the entire warming effect took place in the first 20 ppmv. Now, there would need to be a really huge influx of CO2 into the atmosphere to be able to measure any rise in temperature at all — far more CO2 that all the world’s industrialized nations could produce together.
There is no “human fingerprint” discernable, and thus, no human-caused global warming has ever been measured. People who believe they are seeing human-caused global warming simply do not understand the basic radiative physics of CO2. Like Chicken Little, they are needlessly frightening themselves over something else.
As Henry Galt points out above:
“The slope – yes the one you are panicking about – how many times do you see it, or a steeper one, ‘before present’ in your chart?”
I see lots of very similar hockey sticks in your chart, Martin. They are no different at all from the little Mann one you’re panicking about. No different at all.
Next, Martin says:
“A heatwave affecting Argentina has left at least seven people dead – most of them elderly – in the past week, officials say.”
Cold kills many more than warmth. Didn’t you know that?
Martin, it doesn’t take a huge new city to tweak temps near a Co-op. A small asphalt parking lot or a caretaker with a taste for barbecue could easily bias the record more than the fractional increase you and Nick Stokes have mentioned. If you haven’t been reading here, stay tuned.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/goodridge_1996_ca-uhi_county.jpg
As for the substance of your second quote… “CO2 is a greenhouse gas…(and) “Humans have increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere”… You cannot get from these two facts to your conclusion that humans have caused global warming. Not even a “human fingerprint”, in my opinion.
I got it, Gail. #(;)) Good show.
9:34 pm CT, Elgin, IL 60124 1.2F. Tonight’s low projected -11F
Yes, good one, Gail!
Bazinga!
dbstealey says:
January 2, 2014 at 6:54 pm
Martin,
Wrong again. There is no “human fingerprint” measurable in current global warming. None.
I have posted the following here many times:
‘In my opinion, AGW may be the cause of some very minuscule warming. I could be wrong.’
Any “human fingerprint” is too tiny to measure at current CO2 concentrations. There are no empirical measurements anywhere that can show a portion of global warming attributable to human activity. Such real world measurements simply do not exist. The graph you posted does not show anything but natural variability.
Next, Martin says:
“A heatwave affecting Argentina has left at least seven people dead – most of them elderly – in the past week, officials say.”
Cold kills many more than warmth. Didn’t you know that?”
I should ignore the record hot temps we are having in Australia right now then (because they are faked by the BOM after all) and put on a thick jacket and beanie (like that guy who posted here about his friends in Thailand) so that I don’t freeze to death.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1228716/Re_Inland_Aus_major_heatwave_e#Post1228716
How cold would it have to get to condense CO2 out of the atmosphere?
It was 126 degrees warmer in Corona California today than in International Falls Minnesota last night. I guess they could use some of our local warming and we could use some of their (or anyone else’s!) rain.
Could someone please remove the big persistent High from off the coast of OR/WA please! We need some rain and snow in California and it’s getting desperate.
In July 1998 I went to Cairo to sign some lease agreements.
We went to Luxor for the weekend where it was (reportedly) PLUS 52C.
Just trying to help out…
Bill Jamison says: @ur momisugly January 2, 2014 at 11:50 pm
It was 126 degrees warmer in Corona California today than in International Falls Minnesota last night. I guess they could use some of our local warming….
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YES! We are forecast for lows ten degrees or more below normal.
Martin has not figured out that extreme highs and lows are the result of “loopy” ( meridional ) jets which seem to be connected to a quiet sun.
From a Peer-reviewed paper:
スライド 1 – ACD (Solar influence on the troposphere through dynamical processes)
The BOM comes out with the same press release every January now that it has been infected by warmists. Later, we will find out from the satellite record that 2013 was no warmer than average. It certainly didn’t feel any hotter. A couple of hot days in Jan – it’s Australia, stoopid!
Martin says:
January 2, 2014 at 8:56 pm
I have removed the recent warming adjusting for global low cloud levels, there is no human finger print left.
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/6873/had3vlowcloudvsolar2.png
Remember to be warming the 1st, 2nd, 3rd need to occur regularly regarding global temperatures, depending on the state of ENSO. For example 5th, 8th, 10th etc just means it is cooler than it was previously. Staying relatively warm doesn’t mean it is warming. Warming is caused by increasing the energy levels further and only way to do that generally is to be no. 1.
An excellent view of the North American temperatures with wind chill
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/wind_chill_north_america.html
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/wind_chill_north_asia.html
The chill has started in North ASIA as well. Europe seems warm still
MattS says:
January 2, 2014 at 9:53 pm
How cold would it have to get to condense CO2 out of the atmosphere?
-78c at 1 atm.
. Over the last 10 years, the Northern Hemisphere SST has been declining, the Southern Hemisphere SST is flat, the North Atlantic Ocean SST and AMO are declining, the Pacific Ocean SST is flat and the North Pacific Ocean SST is flat but declining since 2005 declining. The PDO index is also declining but this is just a pattern change indicator and indicates that there is now more colder water at the eastern side of the Pacific than in the western or central part of the Pacific than we had 10 years ago. There are also fewer strong El Ninos. I don’t see another strong El Nino for several years . [3-4 years?] These factors all combined to keep the global temperatures flat and now slightly declining as they did 1880 to 1910 and again 1945-1975. The decline in global temperatures is likely to continue as ocean cycles tend to be long [65-70 years]
Winters during the upcoming years will get even colder and most likely by 2018/2020 will be much colder than today. Already the winter temperatures of Northern Hemisphere , Contiguous US, most of Canada, Europe and UK have been declining since 1998.
The winters could stay cold for the next 2-3 decades. Land locked areas like Central US, Central Canada (especially the Prairies); Central Europe and Asia which do not get the moderating effect of the oceans could have colder winters than the coastal areas.
In United States , since 1998, the climate has been changing . Winters and fall are cooling and summer and spring are warming . The net effect is flat annual temperatures with no global warming.
So why is the government spending $22 billion a year to fight global warming when money is needed more urgently in other areas?
The chump-in-chief thru the EPA is working to further bankrupt the country — supposedly to keep us even colder. Thanks alot, bro…..