This will be a top “sticky” post for awhile since interest is high – new stories will appear below this one – Anthony
UPDATE: Josh channels the boat people
UPDATE2: Another irony is discovered, this one doubly deep. See update 2 below.
UPDATE4: AMSA: Helicopter rescue of Akademik Shokalskiy likely to commence shortly
(It’s off again, then now its on again, with report the helicopter has landed)
UPDATE5: All the passengers (tourists and scientists) are off the ship
UPDATE6: Tough questions need to be asked
UPDATE7: Trouble on the rescue ship – reaching open water not so easy
As we reported previously on WUWT here and here, the saga of the “climate scientists/tourists trapped in ice” continues to fascinate many. Now a second ship has given up on rescue, after the Chinese ship “Snow Dragon” gave up two days ago. The Aurora Australis has abandoned rescue of the trapped Russian “research”vessel in Antarctica and a helicopter evacuation in now being ordered. This episode has taken on a heightened comedic fiasco-like quality.
Now, with such a fantastic failure in full world view, questions are going to start being asked. For example, with advanced tools at their disposal (that Mawson never had) such as near real-time satellite imaging of Antarctic sea ice, GPS navigation, on-board Internet, radar, and satellite communications, one wonders how these folks managed to get themselves stuck at all. Was it simple incompetence of ignoring the signs and data at their disposal combined with “full steam ahead” fever? Even the captain of the Aurora Australis had the good sense to turn back knowing he’d reached the limits of the ship on his rescue attempt. Or, was it some sort of publicity stunt to draw attention? If it was the latter, it has backfired mightily.
One might argue that with photos like the one below, this whole “Spirit of Mawson” research expedition, is little more than a media stunt.
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/412977161323036672 ]
Even after the ship was trapped, these reporters still had a party like atmosphere going on:
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/416881634273525761/photo/1 ]
Yesterday, Andrew Revkin tweeted something that I agreed with, especially since so many of the people trapped in the ice on the ship seem to have a nonchalant, almost partly-like atmosphere going on.
Scientist on trapped Antarctic ship: "Fantastic-I love it when the ice wins & we don't." http://t.co/UsxA2tiV2i What about rescue risk/cost?
— Andrew Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ (@Revkin) December 29, 2013
Yes, the cost and risk is significant. These folks trapped on-board don’t seem to be cognizant of that issue, following the #spiritofmawson Twitter feed, it’s like watching reports (with pictures and video) from a high school class party.
And here’s the kicker. Even the public saw through the charade at the beginning. Trying to get crowd funding from the public for this trip failed miserably as this Indigogo campaign shows:
Source: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/help-us-return-to-mawson-s-antarctic-hut-the-home-of-the-blizzard
Maybe it had to do with the ridiculous image of Professor Chris Turney in full cold weather gear standing in the midst of a tropical forest.
Right after the ship got stuck and there was a realization that the world was watching, one scientist on-board, Dr. Chris Fogwill, of the University of New South Wales, decided that it would be an opportune time to hit the public for money again:
Source: http://www.spiritofmawson.com/
And again, the public has seen through this, and today, the campaign remains stuck at $1000 with just a few donors. People are realizing that there’s no real science being done on this trip, and that it seems to be little more than a chartered party boat for Antarctic enthusiasts and media.
Now, with the ship to be evacuated via helicopter, will the Akademik Shokalskiy join the list of recent ships that have been sunk in Antarctic waters?
Ships that have sunk in Antarctic waters in recent years (h/t to David Archibald)
The Brazilian yacht “Endless Sea” sank in Maxwell Bay, Ardley Cove on Saturday 7th April, 2012. It was used for “scientific and educational expeditions”.
The sunken remains of the 76-ft Mar Sem Fin, aka “Endless Sea”, which sunk on April 7, 2012, lies at a depth of about 9 meters (30 ft) in Ardley Cove, Antarctica.
In November 2007, the Linblad Explorer hit sea ice and sank.
In April 2013, the Chinese factory fishing ship Kai Xin caught fire and sank near Bransfield Strait at the Antarctic Peninsula.
And there are others, these are just a few recent ones.
With so much concern for the pristine environment of Antarctica, one wonders how much environmental damage these sinkings are doing.
And when the trip is nothing more than a party for your friends and media, disguised as a “scientific expedition”, one wonders if there shouldn’t be some moratorium on such trips.
Richard Tol summed it all up nicely with one sentence:
There has been a strong and statistically significant upward trend in climate-change-related public-relations disasters #spiritofmawson
— Richard Tol (@RichardTol) December 30, 2013
UPDATE:
The #spiritofmawson hashtag is now getting competition from the hashtag #ClitanicDisaster in honor of the trapped climate scientists that the MSM won’t mention as being climate scientists.
========================================================
UPDATE 2:
reader Aphan writes on 2013/12/31 at 7:16 pm
I don’t know if anyone was posted this yet, but the IRONY just gobsmacked me.
The British “explorers” on board the MV Explorer who were “commemorating the Spirit of Shackleton” found themselves repeating HIS adventure when their ship struck a piece of submerged ice and then SANK in the Antarctic in November of 2007! None of the passengers or crew were lost. But HOW AMAZING is it that both the “Spirit of Mawson” trip AND the “Spirit of Shackleton” cruise trips ended in disaster from sea ice?????
http://www.jamescairdsociety.com/shackleton-news-104519.htm
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/news/explorer-sinks-antarctica.html
I mean…come on. What are the odds?
============================================================
Related articles
- Saving the Antarctic scientists, er media, er, activists, er tourists trapped by sea ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Antarctic rescue mission fails to reach trapped ship (theguardian.com)
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ”
How mysterious.
Long-term climate change, that has yet to occur, is responsible for events today?
It’s one thing to predict future events as and after the climate changes.
But as of today the global climate has not been measured or shown to have changed since whenever.
All of the observed tiny fluctuations in all things nature do not amount to any indication of any
meaningful long term climate change at all.
Yet, even here in Oregon we have enviro-worriers telling us to “look out side it’s right in front of your denying eyes, Can you not see it?”.
Mr Green Genes says:
December 31, 2013 at 4:35 am
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 4:09 am
What does a fire on a Chinese fishing vessel have to do with sea ice?
=============================
“Nothing at all. But you knew that, didn’t you, because, conveniently just below the photograph, appears this paragraph (helpfully reproduced here so it’s right in front of your eyes).”
I am glad to see you have such a concern for the Antarctic Environment … hopefully, you will lobby to stop oil exploration in the Arctic too … thanks 🙂
Maheshwari et al, 2013, concluded that “However, in general, the Southern Ocean as a whole is showing a weak interannual cooling trend in SST. http://www.hindawi.com/isrn/oceanography/2013/392632/
Likewise RSS also shows a weak troposheric cooling at the rate of -0.13 kelvin/decade : http://joannenova.com.au/2013/10/antarctic-sea-ice-still-at-record-high-where-is-springtime-melt/
Bob Tisdale plots a very strong drop in Southern Ocean SST around 2007: http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/14-southern.png
The drop in Southern Ocean SST is associated with record westerly winds and current along the Antarctic circumpolar current, the by far the worlds strongest and the only one that connects all ocean basins.. The increase in current speed is also causing record upwelling of cold water. The record sea ice is causing record deep water formation rates due to salt rejection and dense water creation . The AMOC or the giant ocean conveyor belt begins in the southern ocean. Look for the cold to come to us in the near future.
Also the White House will have directed the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Navy, the National Weather Service to aid said loons on excuses using the data they have to make up a reason for this major fail.
Some of the info Chris Turney is using most likely comes from one or more of these souces.
This CO2 world tax is a big deal to big commie goverment.
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ” – Turney
Prof Turney knows everything about the ice now. How did he manage to get stuck in it?
This guy has some disturbing conflicts of interest that may have led him to inadvertently cause this massive crisis. It seems fairly obvious that this Antarctic PR tour was planned to promote his side venture in Carbonscape. It’s in Turkey’s best interest to call everything “climate change.” This guy needs to be called on the carpet by authorities in Australia.
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:14 am
“I am glad to see you have such a concern for the Antarctic Environment … hopefully, you will lobby to stop oil exploration in the Arctic too … thanks :)”
JB, think for a moment. Skeptics are the ones who DON’T think the poles will be ice-free. Ergo, drilling for oil in the arctics will stay extremely expensive and hazardeous. It’s the least of our worries. All the nations gung-ho on exploiting the arctis might find their dreams crushed.
We should record this topic for safekeeping. And we should do the same with the AR5 draft, as most probably it will just suddenly disappear as most inconvenient truths just disappear. There are almost endless lists of AR5 authors that are listed in those drafts. Those are the people upholding the hoax with their integrity and reputation. Well, they did their trade, and I’ll keep my copy in case any of those lunatics happens to be in charge of my son’s future. Those people deserve to keep a black blotch in their CVs. Forever.
The joke is on us if any of those entitled bastards ever get in charge of anything. Morons.
“It’s fantastic – I love it when the ice wins and we don’t,” said expedition marine ecologist Tracy Rogers. “It reminds you that as humans, we don’t control everything and that the natural world – it’s the winner here”
No you’re going to be rescued by helicopter, using a lot of CO2 just like you ship used a lot of CO2 and so did the Ice breaker that tried to rescue you. So we humans win again take that nature.
DirkH says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:22 am.
Dirk … there is a fair bit of seismic exploration in the Arctic often involving icebreakers as support vessels. I know, I’ve been there doing it.
re: Perry says December 31, 2013 at 8:02 am
On position reports: Some of these vessels may be equipped with VHF-band only radio position transmitters (vs Inmarsat satellite), and this requires a land-based station/infrastructure to receive the position report and forward that info to data aggregaters for display on various websites.
So, one must be within range of suitable land station in order to ‘report’ position; this is probably why Polar Star and the Russian ship cease to show a course beyond 30 to 50 miles from shore (VHF possessing what is said to be ‘line-of-sight’ radio propagation characteristics) given antenna heights on the shore station and the vessel.
.
Just noticed that the bow paint (name) had been redone… Nice photoshop touch… ;;)
Anybody want to crowd fund me for “Party at the Pole”?
Scute says: December 31, 2013 at 7:54 am
You may be correct in the way that you think that they will play this.
However it is very easy to refute, because it does not matter how much Ice gets moved around it doesn’t make more of it.
As shown by all the various ice data repositories the overall Ice extent has broken records during 2013, so there is more Ice even in the Summer.
Did Al Gore find passage on (the newly-named) “An Inconvenient Truth” as a stowaway?
Getting stuck in the ice a week after summer begins would indicate he might have.
The “Gore Effect” even stops icebreakers. Wow!
ldd says:
December 30, 2013 at 8:07 pm
http://io9.com/what-happened-the-night-niagara-falls-stopped-flowing-1017625850
The time the wind and iced conspired to stop Niagara Falls for 2 days in March of 1848.
1848+172 = 2020
1848+202= 2050
I think that about “bounds” the longer solar cycle range of estimates. Mark your calendar for an interesting test of “The Sun Dun It” hypothesis…
Scute says:
December 31, 2013 at 7:54 am
So recklessly charging ahead in spite of adverse conditions is what Turney is calling “Climate Change”?
I’d call this disaster the result of abject stupidity or egotistical hubris.
Maybe Turney is claiming this part of the world has never seen ice before.
Either way, Turney blames Climate Change instead of taking responsibility.
Robert in Calgary says:
December 30, 2013 at 6:55 pm
I was curious about the capabilities of the Polar Star, as the Chinese and Australian rescue ships are reported to be limited to breaking through 1.5m ice. According to Wikipedia:
I did not see a mention of what speed can be managed through the thicker ice. From the same source, performance figures are:
I was not able to find a current location for Polar Star except it was deployed December 3rd to support routine supply operations for McMurdo Station. The USCG site for the ship lists current news as:
The Polar Star has a sister ship the Polar Sea which is no longer in service following what is described as a “massive engine failure” suffered in 2010. The Coast Guard apparently has plans to “dismantle” rather than “scrap” her. The Polar Star herself just completed a major ($57 million) refit early this year and the McMurdo deployment is her first actual mission after returning to service. Since 2010, the US has had no icebreakers of this class in service — perhaps the augury of global climate models convinced naval planners there will be no need for them in the near future. The refit should keep the Polar Star in service for another 8-10 years and the Coast Guard is pursuing approval for a new ship. Maybe the US Congress will consider revoking the wind turbine subsidies to pay for it.
So it would appear the Polar Star could reach and rescue the Akademik Shokalskiy were she dispatched to do so. But if you really want to get through a lot of ice in a hurry, you need one of the Russian nuclear ice-breakers — unlimited power to keep the cabins warm and the Vodka cold and almost completely carbon neutral! But alas, according again to Wikipedia the Arctic class of nuclear icebreakers (including the Yamal) depend on cold polar waters to cool their reactors and cannot even transit the tropical seas to reach Antarctica. Perhaps one could be towed through warmer seas with reactors operating at minimum power, but this would increase both the cost and the time required to get one where it is needed.
So there is no option to rescue the Akademik Shokalskiy without burning a lot of fossil fuel.
I suspect once the crew and passengers have been evacuated, the owners and insurers of the Akademik Shokalskiy will decide it is not worth the cost to charter an icebreaker of the Polar Star class to recover their ship. I also suspect insurance rates for these Antarctic “research” trips will rise sharply as a result.
Which will not of course stop these publicity junkets; just take a bigger bite out of the taxpayer to fund them.
Happy New Year to all, including those onboard the Akademik Shokalskiy. I sincerely hope they all get out without injury along with everyone dispatched to rescue them. That they emerge any wiser from the experience is probably too much to hope for.
The latest from the BBC reported on board is that perhaps the Chinese icebreaker is also stuck. They want the Chinese and Australian breakers along side each other for the helicopter shuttle. The Australian boat may try to get to the Chinese.
6am Wednesday 1st NZT
National Radio reports helicopter rescue may be delayed for 24 hours until weather conditions improve.
Aurora will eventually take the “tourists” on board, then continue with its resupply schedule to McMurdo, then return to Hobart.
It could be several weeks till the “tourists” arrive back in Hobart.
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:32 am
The vast majority of oil producers support the Global Warming meme–they certainly don’t fund the likes of WUWT or anybody else opposed to such folly.
And now you have one of the reasons why.
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ” – Turney
Well done professor. And what kind of long-term climate change causes more ice ? Warming or cooling ?
With nearly 500 posts it doesn´t hurt to add this classic:
Everything is worse than we thought!
The frightened ones aboard the boat
were disappointed too
they’d hoped to eat a Christmas bird
with passengers and crew
none had dared to mention
that most obvious of rhymes
Dr. Turney, Christmas Turkey
wasn’t fit for trying times
they’d failed to heed the warning
that ice floes were on the loose
instead of Christmas turkey
all they got was one big goose
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ”
——
I wonder if Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change will start replacing Acts of God in insurance contracts?
should read, above:
Dr. Turney, Christmas Turkey
so sorry
[ Fixed. -ModE ]